900
FXUS63 KLBF 031141
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
641 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible
again today across most of western and north central
Nebraska. The main threats will initially be large hail,
transitioning into a damaging wind threat later in the
evening. However, a tornado cannot be ruled out late afternoon
to early evening.
- More showers and thunderstorms are possible late afternoon
into the evening for the 4th of July. While the severe risk
appears lower, there is still some potential for large hail
and strong wind gusts.
- A small break from rain and thunderstorms is expected Sunday
into Monday, with a return of precipitation chances Monday
night and each evening the remainder of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight across
the region, especially along and east of Highway 83. Across north
central Nebraska, some storm redevelopment is possible, with the
main severe concern being strong, gusty winds with the strongest
cells. However, more concerning is the potential for heavy rainfall,
given the amount of rain that fell over the last several hours. The
continued rain could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially
in lower lying areas.
Today, upper level high pressure remains over the southeastern
United States, with an upper level trough over the western United
States. Southerly flow aloft continues to bring higher dewpoints
across the region, with afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower
70s expected. Initially clear skies this morning will allow for
daytime heating to builds across the region, bringing highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. With this heating, CAM guidance suggest
large amounts of surface based CAPE across the region, on the order
of 3,500-4,000+ J/kg. The upper level flow is a little less focused
over the region, however, stronger winds aloft will support around
40 knots of deep layer shear. A cold front is expected to develop
and track south across the Dakotas, with a dry line tracking into
the Panhandle. With the surface convergence in the supportive
environment, expecting cells to initially develop as supercells
across western Nebraska, tracking to the east. Supercells are
expected to bring an initial threat for large hail and potentially
damaging wind gusts, though there is a non-zero chance for tornadoes
as well. By the evening, expecting cells to begin transitioning to a
linear storm mode, increasing the damaging wind threat as the event
goes on. Also, as storms become more linear in nature, guidance
suggests some potential for line normal shear to develop, keeping a
threat for tornadoes along the leading edge of the storms. With this
all in play, an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather is
in place east of Highway 183, with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
along and north of Interstate 80.
Looking ahead to the 4th of July, question remains on how far south
the cold front tracks today and tonight. This will largely drive the
severe weather threat during the afternoon and evening for July 4th.
A shortwave tracks across the Dakotas, which is expected to track a
surface low pressure system into eastern Nebraska, with a cold front
across western Nebraska. Ahead of the cold front, modest instability
is expected to develop, around 2,500 J/kg of surface based CAPE.
With less upper level support, shear is more limited, generally
around 30 to 40 knots deep layer shear. However, this may be
sufficient for at least organized convection in the afternoon and
evening. While the overall severe risk does appear to be lower
compared to today, there is still a risk for large hail and damaging
wind gusts with the strongest storms on July 4th. Again, much will
depend on how today`s severe weather event goes, as well as the
placement of the cold front by Saturday. Regardless, worth staying
weather aware the next few days, especially for those with outdoor
plans.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
Sunday...Upper ridging will settle west of the the Continental
Divide by midday Sunday. The increasing heights aloft will lead to
subsidence across much of the High Plains with increasing
temperatures. This should afford western Nebraska a dry day and NBM
probabilities support this with < 10% probabilities for a tenth of
an inch or more QPF. Drier air will also cross the Rockies and
settle into portions of the Panhandle. While critical fire
conditions are not expected, some elevated concerns appear possible
west of Highway 83.
Monday and beyond...ridging will continue to build into Monday but
our brief break from rainfall should come to a swift end as modest
southwesterly flow will allow a few perturbations to cross the
Northern Rockies and bring a return to rain and thunderstorm
potential. Increased lee-troughing should draw richer low-level
moisture to the Front Range and lead to afternoon and evening
thunderstorm potential to the west. Activity will approach our
western zones and bring persistent daily rain and thunderstorm
chances. Overall, PoPs are fairly consistent day-to-day, peaking
around 50% west of Highway 83 and 30% to the east. Overall, the lack
of any more appreciable mid-level speed max overhead precludes
greater severe weather signals. Though localized strong/severe
storms cannot be ruled out given fairly robust instability, the lack
of greater shear should limit the threat for a widespread organized
severe weather episode. Temperatures should a subtle upward trend by
late week with NBM 90th percentile output suggesting upper 90s to
low 100s. NBM inner-quartile spread remains fairly small suggesting
reasonable confidence in temperatures. Nevertheless, some upward
trends with forecasts highs appear plausible given local proximity
to high pressure aloft to the southwest. This aligns with the latest
CPC outlooks which highlight above normal temperature leans in both
the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026
Early morning rain and thunderstorms continue across southwest
Nebraska. This activity should clear KLBF relatively quick in
the forecast period with dry conditions for much of the daytime.
Diurnal cumulus appears likely this afternoon but should remain
low-end VFR at KLBF with lower if any coverage at KVTN. This
afternoon, convection should develop over central Nebraska but
likely remain east of the terminals. Later tonight, more
activity will approach from the west but how far east it is able
to maintain itself is somewhat in question. Did include a
mention at KVTN but only a PROB30 group at KLBF who may remain
just south of the activity.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion