567
FXUS63 KLBF 130827
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions expected today. Strong
southerly winds are expected today and tonight.
- Near critical fire weather concerns are expected again
Thursday and possibly Friday.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this weekend.
Sunday appears to be the more favorable day, with potential
for strong thunderstorms. However, the severe threat remains
uncertain at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Winds will strengthen by mid-morning from west to east
as a sfc low begins to approach the region from the west, tightening
pressure gradient. Winds will be out of the south with sustained
winds around 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. Both the
namnest and the RAP bufkit soundings suggest the strongest winds
will be across western Nebraska, where seeing 40 to 45 mph wind
gusts will be greatest. Southerly winds will remain strong into
the evening and overnight. Issued a Red Flag Warning for most
of western and north central Nebraska with the exception of the
far northern portion of the forecast area, fire weather zone
208. Have moderate confidence critical conditions persisting
into the overnight, thus decided to keep the same timeframe of
the Fire Weather Watch for the upgrade to Red Flag Warning,
running the RFW into a portion of the overnight, ending at 1AM
CT. The main reason for this is although we will have a
southerly wind, no moisture advection is expected thorugh the
day, thus keeping the persistent dry conditions well into the
evening hours. Min RH will drop into the teens and expect
overnight recovery to remain poor. There may be a need to extend
the RFW later into the overnight/early Thursday morning,
however confidence is low at this time in the strong winds
remaining past 1AM CT, largely dependent on the timing of the
sfc low, will have to monitor thorugh the day if extending the
RFW is warranted.
As for Thursday, near critical fire weather conditions will be
possible as the upper level ridge has a subtle breakdown with a
closed low over Canada and a trof moving over the High Plains
region. Ahead of the trof temperatures will warm well into the
upper 80s to low 90s across southwest Nebraska into the southern
Sandhills. Min RH will drop below 15 percent across the
Sandhills into western Nebraska. Winds will be sustained around
15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph or greater across far western
Nebraska. Fire weather headlines may be needed for Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
By Friday morning, the upper level low is expected to be over
eastern Manitoba, bringing a more zonal flow aloft across western
Nebraska. Throughout the day, an upper level trough is expected to
develop across the Pacific Northwest, eventually tracking across the
northern Plains this weekend. As warm 850 mb temperatures remain
over the region, expect highs to climb into the upper 80s to lower
90s across western and north central Nebraska. Humidity remains
quite poor behind the dry line, with afternoon humidity values
as low as 10 to 15 percent across most of the region. Though
conditions are hot and dry, will continue to keep an eye on
winds for Friday afternoon to determine the fire weather threat.
For now, winds appear to remain just below critical fire
weather thresholds, but if stronger downslope flow develops, the
fire weather threat may continue again on Friday. Given how
conditional this is, believe that at least elevated to near
critical conditions will be possible on Friday, but will be
keeping a close eye to see if critical concerns are reached
Friday afternoon.
Saturday, the upper level trough is expected to track across the
northern Plains, bringing a surface system across the Plains. There
is still some uncertainty in how deep the trough digs across the
western United States, which affects the placement of the surface
low. This system brings our next best chances for rainfall across
portions of the region, but again, uncertainty remains in the track
and timing. Given the latest forecast, expecting temperatures to
climb again to well above seasonal with highs in the 80s to low 90s.
By Saturday evening, expect increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Latest guidance suggests the higher
instability will remain further east of the region, which may limit
severe concerns Saturday night, but again, with the amount
uncertainty in the track of the trough and low, confidence is
expected to increase as we get closer to Saturday.
A cold front is expected to track across the region on Sunday,
bringing better chances for showers and thunderstorms given the
forcing. Ahead of the cold front, guidance suggests afternoon CAPE
may reach into the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range, with around 50 knots
deep layer shear. This environment looks favorable for more
organized thunderstorm development along the front, which may
pose a better threat for severe weather. For what it is worth,
SPC highlights portions of the region, mostly along and south
of an Imperial to Broken Bow line, under a 15 percent chance for
severe weather Sunday afternoon. While the exact severe threats
are more uncertain at this time, given questions in the
placement of the larger scale forcing, it certainly appears that
the environment will be supportive of organized convection
Sunday afternoon. As with rain chances Saturday, expect
confidence to increase as we get closer to the weekend, and
models come into better agreement on the track of the upper
level trough and surface low.
With the trough in place early week, precipitation chances may
linger into Monday afternoon, with additional chances for showers.
Temperatures are also expected to be on the cooler side, but still a
fair amount of spread in ensemble data. For now, expecting more
seasonal temperatures, which are generally in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. Winds remain
light and variable overnight, becoming southerly by the morning.
Winds increase throughout the day, with southerly gusts of 20 to 30
knots lasting all afternoon into tomorrow night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across western and
north central Nebraska this afternoon, with a Red Flag Warning in
effect. Temperatures are expected to be above average this
afternoon, with highs in the 80s. Afternoon humidity values drop
into the 15 to 20 percent range across most of the region, with
strong southerly wind gusts this afternoon. Gusts this
afternoon could reach up to 45 mph, especially across the
Sandhills and Panhandle. With gusty conditions expected to last
into the night, critical fire weather conditions are expected to
last until around 1 AM CDT. Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, a low level jet develops across the central Plains,
which is expected to bring better moisture into the region. The
question remains how much moisture recovery is expected
Wednesday night. In fact, some areas across the region may see
poor recovery, with humidity reaching around 50 percent.
Thursday, a dry line tracks across western Nebraska, bringing very
dry air across portions of the region, mostly areas along and west
of Highway 83. Afternoon humidity behind the dry line may drop as
low as 10 to 15 percent. Highs again remain warm, breaking into the
upper 80s to lower 90s. With gusty winds persisting, expecting at
least near critical fire weather conditions, with the possibility of
critical conditions Thursday afternoon. Given that some overlap is
expected of low humidity and gusty winds, may need additional
fire weather headlines Thursday afternoon.
Fire weather concerns become less certain Friday into the weekend.
For Friday, again expecting warm and dry conditions across the
region, with winds remaining just below critical thresholds.
However, if winds increase given expected downslope flow, then fire
weather concerns may yet again return on Friday. As for the weekend,
Saturday looks to be the only day of concern, as a surface system
approaches. Before the system`s arrival, warm, dry, and windy
conditions may occur across western Nebraska, potentially bringing
additional concerns. However, there is lower confidence given some
question in the timing and location of this system. By Saturday
night, precipitation chances increase into early next week, which
should lower fire weather concerns.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 1
AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion