293
FXUS63 KLBF 161720
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1120 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong, gusty northwest winds will be the main driver of a
busy weather day across western and north central Nebraska.
Winds may gust in excess of 65 mph this afternoon across the
region.
- The strong winds this afternoon will lead to critical fire
weather concerns across southwestern Nebraska, where a Red
Flag Warning is in effect. Near critical fire weather
conditions may last throughout the weekend.
- Across north central Nebraska today, the strong winds
combined with falling snow may lead to areas of blowing snow
and reduced visibility. Though new snow accumulations are
expected to be around 1 inch, locally heaver amounts will be
possible in banded snowfall. As such, a Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued.
- Temperatures fluctuate throughout the week, largely driven by
the location of the jet stream. A dry forecast, and warmer
temperatures in some locations, may lead to continued fire
weather concerns into the work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Just updated the forecast to add Eastern Cherry county to the
winter weather advisory. Over the past hour, some locally
intense snow showers have impacted the Valentine area. These
snow showers will be very sporadic, locally reducing
visibilities as they pass. Snow accumulations are still expected
to be an inch or less in eastern Cherry County, however wind
gusts in the 40 to 60 MPH range will combine with the snow
showers to produce near zero visibilities over short distances.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
A busy day of impactful weather is expected across western and north
central Nebraska today, largely driven by the High Wind Warning
across the region. Strong winds aloft will continue to mix to the
surface throughout the night lasting through the evening. Wind gusts
this afternoon across most of the region are expected to exceed 55
mph, with some areas, especially across western Nebraska, exceeding
65 mph. Sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph are also expected. These
strong winds and wind gusts will create difficult travel conditions,
with strong cross winds on area roads and highways.
Across southwest Nebraska, the strong winds will also lead to
critical fire weather conditions. Poor humidity recovery overnight
will contribute to lower relative humidity throughout the day.
Relative humidity is expected to drop into the low 20 percent range
this afternoon across southwest Nebraska. Although these relative
humidity values are forecast to remain just above critical
thresholds, the strong wind gusts will be sufficient to create
critical fire weather conditions. Any fire starts will have the
potential to rapidly grow and spread with these winds. As such, have
continued the Red Flag Warning across southwest Nebraska for this
afternoon into the evening.
Across portions of north central Nebraska, snow is expected this
afternoon, and combined with the strong winds, areas of blowing snow
are expected this afternoon across north central Nebraska. The
concern for blowing snow has prompted the issuance of a Winter
Weather Advisory across north central Nebraska through this evening.
As for accumulations, the latest forecast continues to trend towards
increasing snowfall amounts. While most portions of north central
Nebraska are expected to receive around one inch of accumulations,
there is some growing concern for more banded snowfall, which may
lead to locally higher amounts. Latest guidance suggests potential
for pockets of instability and strong mid to low level lapse rates,
further supporting the potential for banded snowfall. However, these
is some uncertainty remaining in where this potential band of
heavier snowfall will set up. Have blended in some of the higher
resolution guidance to the forecast, which brings in some stripes of
higher snowfall between Ainsworth and O`Neill, with new amounts
around 1.5 inches. That being said, thinking that snowfall amounts
under some of the stronger bands could reach up to 3 inches in some
locations. Regardless of amounts, higher snowfall rates and very
gusty winds will create hazardous travel conditions throughout the
day from areas of blowing snow. Take care if you must travel in
north central Nebraska today! Behind all of this snow and a
secondary cold frontal passage, temperatures will drop off
tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
As the cold front passes through the region this afternoon, colder
temperatures remain in its wake. This will cause sharp drop off in
temperatures tonight into early Saturday morning. Winds remain
strong early Saturday morning, with gusts up to 35 mph. These strong
winds and cold temperatures will result in very cold wind chills
Saturday morning, with wind chills ranging from 10 to 25 below zero
across most of western and north central Nebraska. There has been
some consistency in these frigid wind chills in the last few
forecast cycles, so think there is some potential that cold weather
headlines may be needed in the next forecast cycle.
For the rest of Saturday, cold temperatures remain across the region
with highs ranging from the teens in north central Nebraska to the
upper 20s across the Panhandle. Wind chills remain subzero across
north central Nebraska to the low teens across western Nebraska.
Despite the cold temperatures, low relative humidity is expected
across most of western and southwestern Nebraska, with afternoon
humidity in the low teens. North to northwesterly winds gusting up
to 40 mph may will likely lead to near critical to critical fire
weather conditions across western and southwestern Nebraska again on
Saturday. Will continue to keep an eye on this period, as additional
Red Flag Warnings may be needed Saturday.
Upper level ridging attempts to track over the region Sunday
afternoon, which should bring warmer temperatures across the region.
In fact, should see a rebound of temperatures to the upper 30s to
upper 40s across the region. While humidity values are expected to
remain above 30 percent across most of the region, strong winds
aloft are again expected to mix to the surface, with strong
northwesterly winds of 25 to 35 mph gusting up to 45 mph. This may
again lead to more wind driven fire weather concerns Sunday
afternoon. The threat for stronger winds on Sunday are further
reinforced by the ECMWF EFI/SoT, highlighting a 70 to 80 percent
chance of anomalously strong winds across western and north central
Nebraska. With all this in mind, there may be an additional need for
fire weather headlines again on Sunday.
Looking ahead into the week, the upper level jet tracks across
central Nebraska, which introduces the possibility of several
shortwaves tracking across portions of north central Nebraska, while
western Nebraska remains more under a ridge. For now, this appears
to be a mostly dry pattern across the region, with little
precipitation expected. This will also lead to a temperature
gradient settling across the region, which is expected to subtly
track east and west throughout the week. Under the more ridged
regions, near seasonal to above seasonal temperatures are expected
to persist, while areas impacted by shortwaves are expected to see
cooler temperatures. Will continue to monitor these trends
throughout the week, however, the location of the jet stream will
largely dictate temperatures throughout the week. With the dry
forecast, some somewhat warmer temperatures, fire weather concerns
are likely to remain throughout portions of the region throughout
the week. Again, will continue to monitor these trends and refine as
we approach early week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Scattered snow showers will be possible this afternoon into the
early evening hours generally east of a line from Gordon (KGRN)
to North Platte (KLBF). Visibilities east of this line may be
reduced to locally under 1SM at times. Ceilings in these areas
may reach around 1000 FT AGL within the heaviest snow showers.
Flight conditions will improve after mid evening across the
area with ceilings increasing to 5000 to 10000 FT AGL tonight
into Saturday morning. Winds will remain strong over the next 24
hours with frequent gusts over 50 KTS possible through 00z
Saturday. Wind gusts will generally be in the 35 to 45 KT range
overnight into Saturday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across southwest
Nebraska today, driven by strong northwesterly wind gusts and low
relative humidity. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for fire
weather zones 210 and 219, where afternoon humidity values drop
into the low 20 percent range. Winds in the Red Flag Warning are
expected to remain around 40 mph, with gusts up to 65 mph.
Although the Red Flag Warning is located across southwest
Nebraska, the entire region is under a High Wind Warning, with
afternoon wind gusts potentially exceeding 65 mph. Though humidity
values may remain above critical values, any fire starts today
will have the potential for rapid spread.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected to
last this weekend, especially across western and southwestern
Nebraska due to low relative humidity values and gusty
northwesterly winds. Although no headlines have been issued for
this weekend, additional headlines may be needed if the forecast
remains on track. Saturday, afternoon humidity values drop into
the low teens across western Nebraska, especially areas west of
Highway 83. Winds gusting between 35 to 40 mph are possible.
Stronger wind gusts are possible on Sunday, with peak gusts around
45 mph, however, humidity values are expected to remain above 30
percent. Will continue to monitor these conditions closely.
Looking ahead to next week, areas in western Nebraska may see
above average temperatures along with lower relative humidity
values. Some questions remains on how strong wind gusts will be
next week. However, a dry and windy pattern is expected, which may
bring additional fire weather concerns.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
NEZ005>010.
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for
NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion