763
FXUS63 KLBF 051924
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
124 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog are possible tonight into Friday morning, with
dense fog possible in spots especially from Highway 61
eastward through Highway 183. Additional fog development is
possible Friday night into Saturday morning.
- A warming trend begins Friday and continues through the
weekend, with highs reaching the 60s Saturday and middle to
upper 60s Sunday and Monday.
- Mainly dry conditions and above-normal temperatures are
expected through much of next week. A weak cold front may
bring slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday, though highs
should remain above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 121 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Currently, a weak southern-stream disturbance is located south of
the region, with precipitation ongoing across Kansas and Oklahoma
where the strongest forcing for ascent resides. Meanwhile, the upper-
level low across the Great Lakes continues to weaken, with northerly
flow persisting across northeastern portions of the forecast area.
Some mid-level warm air advection (WAA) remains across portions of
the region, supporting lingering mid-level cloud cover. However,
increasing cold air advection (CAA) in the lower to middle levels
should help reduce cloud cover through the afternoon and evening,
particularly across western and central Nebraska. With increasing
sunshine and 850-mb temperatures in the 7 to 10C range, highs
should reach the lower to middle 50s across western and central
portions of the area, with upper 50s possible across southwestern
Nebraska. Farther northeast, persistent cloud cover should limit
daytime warming, with highs generally in the upper 40s. Tonight into
Friday morning, confidence is increasing in the potential for fog
development, particularly across portions of the area between
Highway 61 and Highway 183. Latest CAM model guidance, along with
BUFKIT forecast soundings, indicates increasing low-level moisture
beneath a developing inversion, with light winds and continued
moisture advection supporting favorable conditions for fog
development. With increasing signals for areas of fog, potentially
becoming dense in some locations. The extent and duration of fog
development remain somewhat uncertain, particularly along the
western edge of the deeper low-level moisture. Overnight lows should
generally remain near or slightly above freezing across much of the
area, though temperatures will be dependent on the extent of fog and
low-level cloud cover.
Friday, any lingering fog should gradually dissipate by mid morning
as daytime heating and increasing boundary-layer mixing help erode
the low-level inversion. However, areas where low-level moisture
remains trapped beneath the inversion may experience a slower
improvement in visibility and a delayed breakup of low cloud cover.
Meanwhile, another weak southern-stream trough will move into the
Four Corners region through the day, promoting generally westerly
flow aloft across the forecast area. Increasing west to southwest
flow at 850 mb will support warm air advection, with temperatures at
this level increasing into the 9 to 12C range. With sufficient
daytime mixing, highs should reach the middle to upper 50s across
central and western Nebraska, with lower 60s possible across
southwestern portions of the area. Farther northeast, lingering
cloud cover should limit warming, with highs generally remaining in
the upper 40s. Friday night into Saturday morning, fog development
may occur once again as light winds and continued low-level moisture
support favorable conditions for fog. However, confidence remains
lower regarding the coverage and location of the fog development.
Saturday, upper-level flow will become more northwesterly as ridging
continues to build across the northern Plains, while lower-level
winds become more westerly. This will favor downslope warming and
drying, particularly across central and western Nebraska. Continued
warm air advection in the lower to middle levels should support 850-
mb temperatures increasing into the 10 to 13C range across much of
the region. With clearing skies, drier air, and more efficient
boundary-layer mixing, highs should reach the lower to middle 60s
across much of the area, with upper 60s possible across southwestern
Nebraska. These temperatures would be around 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for early November. Overnight lows Saturday night should
generally remain in the middle to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
Late this weekend into early next week, split upper-level flow will
continue across North America as an amplified ridge remains
established across the northern Plains. This pattern will favor the
polar jet stream remaining displaced north of the forecast area,
while the southern-stream jet remains farther south across the
southern CONUS. With the strongest forcing for ascent remaining
displaced north and south of the region, generally dry conditions
are expected across western and north-central Nebraska. A shortwave
trough may track southeastward across the northern Plains along the
northern periphery of the ridge, though current guidance suggests
limited impacts across the forecast area. Persistent ridging, along
with anomalously warm temperatures in the lower to middle levels,
will support well above-normal temperatures through the early
portion of next week. Highs Sunday and Monday should reach the
middle to upper 60s across much of the area, with overnight lows
generally in the middle to upper 30s.
Tuesday into the middle of next week, another shortwave trough is
expected to track southeastward across the northern Plains,
resulting in a transition toward more northwesterly flow aloft
across the region. An associated cold front may move through the
forecast area, bringing a modest decrease in temperatures. However,
with the deeper reservoir of cold air remaining displaced well north
of the region, significant cooling is not anticipated. Highs should
generally remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which would still be
above normal for early November. Beyond Tuesday, upper-level ridging
is expected to remain persistent across the central United States
through the end of the forecast period. The broader upper-level
pattern may take on characteristics of an omega block, with
troughing across the eastern Pacific and northeastern United States
surrounding a ridge across the central CONUS. This pattern would
favor continued subsidence and limited precipitation chances across
western and north-central Nebraska, while maintaining above-normal
temperatures. Highs should generally remain in the lower 60s through
the latter portion of next week. Additionally, persistent troughing
near the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska may continue to favor the
transport of relatively mild Pacific air into portions of the CONUS.
With the primary reservoir of Arctic air remaining displaced
northward into Canada and no strong signal for a significant
southward intrusion of colder air, temperatures are expected to
remain above normal through the end of the period. While some
fluctuations in temperatures are possible with passing shortwaves
and associated frontal boundaries, the overall pattern continues to
favor warmer and drier conditions across the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
VFR conditions are expected across western and north-central
Nebraska through this afternoon and evening. Light northerly winds
of 5 to 10 knots will continue through the evening before becoming
light and variable overnight. Increasing low-level moisture
advection, combined with light winds and a developing nocturnal
inversion, will support fog development overnight into Friday
morning. The greatest potential for fog development currently favors
areas between Highway 61 and Highway 183, including both KLBF
and KVTN. While uncertainty remains regarding the exact coverage
and intensity of the fog, confidence is increasing in the
potential for IFR to LIFR conditions at both terminals,
particularly during the early morning hours Friday. Forecast
confidence in the timing and extent of visibility restrictions
remains somewhat limited, and refinements will likely be needed
in subsequent TAF issuances.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Labenz
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Labenz
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion