529
FXUS63 KLBF 091733
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s, turning
  windy and warmer Thursday in the 80s.

- Moderate confidence severe storms Friday afternoon and evening
  with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats.

- Low to moderate confidence in daily thunderstorms through the
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A cold front has advanced south of the area, from southwest Kansas
into northeast Kansas. A secondary cold front will move into the
northwest Sandhills overnight. This will allow temperatures to drop
into the 50s at many locations across the area by sunrise Wednesday
morning. Lows by daybreak will be cooler from low 50s northwest
Sandhills to upper 50s southeastern areas.

As the secondary cold front pushes across the area Wednesday
morning, surface high pressure will build across western and north
central Nebraska into the afternoon. This will bring a period of
gusty north to northeast winds up to 25 mph during the morning
hours, with winds decreasing during the afternoon as the high
becomes centered across the Sandhills. Highs will be cooler in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, which will be near normal for highs.

Surface high pressure will reside over the area Wednesday night with
mainly clear skies.  This will allow for a cool night, with lows
falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s by Thursday morning.

On Thursday, surface low pressure will deepen from eastern Montana
into eastern Wyoming. This will bring a tightening surface pressure
gradient, with a gusty south to southwest wind of 15 to 30 mph with
some gusts to 35 mph across the Sandhills. This will also bring a
warmup into the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 across the western
and northwest Sandhills. This will also bring the potential for near
critical to critical fire weather conditions across the northwest
Sandhills, where afternoon humidity may fall as low as 10 to 20
percent combined with a southwest wind 15 to 30 mph. Breezy south to
southwest winds Thursday night will keep overnight lows milder from
60 to 65. Humidity recovery will be poor at only 30 to 50 percent
across the Pine Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Friday...A more unsettled pattern will arrive by late week and break
the brief heat wave across the area. Shortwave ridging will depart
as broad troughing settles south across the Western CONUS. As a more
pronounced disturbance crosses central Canada, an attendant cool
front will settle south into the Central Plains. Through Friday,
this feature will slowly translate south and east into western and
central Nebraska. Ample moist southerly flow will feed into this and
should allow for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. The
Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk severe weather
outlook (Level 1 of 5) for most areas east of Highway 83. Overall,
this will come down to placement of the frontal boundary at the time
of storm development. Typically, models tend to under-forecast
progression of a frontal boundary with ample cold air advection
behind it. Because of this, confidence remains relatively low with
respect to thunderstorm coverage across the area. Folks should
continue to monitor later forecasts regarding precise locations
under the threat for severe thunderstorms.

Saturday and beyond...flow aloft will gradually transition to more
southwesterly by early next week. This will promote increasing
moisture aloft as an influx of moisture from the eastern Pacific
will arrive. PWATs will again climb with values progged to exceed
1.0" or nearly 2-3 sigma for mid-September. Temperatures will waver
day to day as recurring rounds of rain and thunderstorms dot the
forecast period. NBM inner-quartile spread remains fairly large,
particularly Sunday and beyond, thus confidence is low in precise
daytime temperatures. Widespread wetting rains appear possible late
Saturday night into Sunday where the NBM shows 50%+ probabilities of
seeing > 0.25" rainfall for areas north of Interstate 80. This will
likely be refined some in the coming days as smaller scale details
become more certain so stay tuned. Broad upper ridging will become
established across the lower Mississippi valley towards the middle
of next week. This should allow fairly enhanced mid-level flow to
persist and with it, regular precipitation chances. The Climate
Prediction Center shows this similar thinking with 40-50% chance of
seeing above normal precipitation for the September 14-18 period
(Monday through Friday). NBM temperature spreads remain large,
increasing to 20F by late week, so it remains to be seen whether we
see continued above normal temperatures or perhaps a return to more
seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the region through Thursday
morning as high pressure remains settled over the area. Winds will
generally remain under 10 knots, but some stronger winds are
expected by late Thursday morning with gusts up to 25 knots lasting
through the afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion