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FXUS63 KLBF 232136 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 336 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

A COOP observer report of icy roads near Atkinson has prompted a
winter weather advisory overnight. A cold front moving east
overnight could transition the drizzle to snow but not for several
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

Satellite and the short term models suggest a disturbance across WY
this afternoon will move east through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight
producing light snow. The snow will be operating on weak upper level
dynamics and an arctic cold front dropping south through MT. The
short term model blend was the basis for chance to likely POPs with
snow accumulations of an inch or less. This snow should be east of
the area by Sunday morning. NDOR cams are picking up on freezing
drizzle east of highway 83 this afternoon. Until the better lift
moves in tonight, areas of light freezing drizzle are in the
forecast across parts of ncntl Nebraska.

Cloudy skies continue Sunday and arctic high pressure will back into
wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The temperature forecast tonight and Sunday
leans on the short term model plus bias correction which suggested
lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 20s and 30s. Cloud cover
tonight and Sunday should limit the radiative cooling and heating
effects.

An upper level disturbance, currently affecting the West Coast will
move east and be located across wrn KS and the ern Colorado Plains
by 12z Monday. The short term model blend suggested an isolated
chance for snow showers affecting swrn and scntl Nebraska Sunday
night into early Monday morning. The temperature forecast continues
to lean on the short term model blend plus bias correction for lows
in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

A storm system operating across the West Coast today will move
through KS Monday followed by a second system Tuesday representing
what could be a 48 hour snow event for parts of western and ncntl
Nebraska. Temperatures aloft are very favorable for snow growth
with h700mb temperatures around -13C. Light winds may result in
fluffy snow accumulations.

The ECM operational and it`s statistical guidance are the heavy
hitters suggesting 6 to 12 inches of snow across swrn Nebraska but
the ECM ensemble and other models suggest about half of that, or 3
to 6 inches. The best forcing will be across KS and sern Nebraska,
close to the track of the h700mb low. The models are in excellent
agreement tracking this low east-northeast through KS and sern
Nebraska. The forecast follows a blended approach for 3 to 6 inches
of snow, mainly across swrn Nebraska, beginning early Monday morning
and continuing through Tuesday afternoon and beyond. The second
system may produce additional light snow Tuesday night.

1030 mb arctic high pressure centered over nrn Alberta, Saskatchewan
and the scntl Northwest Territory this afternoon will build into the
Upper Midwest forming block Monday through Wednesday. This will
provide plenty of cold air across Nebraska and slow the exit of the
second storm system. Temperatures should remain below freezing
Monday through Wednesday in most areas. Once this high pressure
moves east Thursday and Friday, temperatures will begin to recover
back into the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Sat Jan 23 2021

In northern Nebraska including KVTN and KONL, light snow showers
will move out of the area early this afternoon. There is another
chance for snow showers in the area later this evening. Lowered
ceilings and reduced visibility create IFR conditions through
early tomorrow morning and eventually LIFR conditions as a cold
front moves into the area.

In southwest Nebraska including KLBF, MVFR conditions can be
expected through the early afternoon and evening, then IFR as
ceilings continue to lower in the early morning hours.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for NEZ006>010-
026>029-038.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Meltzer

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion