019
FXUS63 KLBF 240503
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1103 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A prolonged period of above normal temperatures and gusty
winds will lead to increased fire weather concerns through
the week, particularly Thursday and Friday.
- A passing frontal boundary will bring potential for measurable rain
(40-70%) across portions of western and central Nebraska
Wednesday.
- Much colder temperatures arrive this weekend as strong Arctic
high pressure settles in from the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Early this afternoon, northwest flow aloft was pushing high level
clouds off the Northern Rockies over the High Plains. Outside of
this, moisture remains quite limited across the region. The midday
LBF RAOB sampled just 0.18" of precipitable water (PWAT), which is
near the 10th percentile for this date in LBF`s upper-air
climatology. Residual snowpack continues to dwindle with continued
mild temperatures and largely unimpeded sunshine. Most locations
outside of central and eastern Nebraska have less than 1" currently
on the ground. Temperatures across the area as of 230pm CST have
exceeded the freezing mark and even reached the lower 60s in our
western zones.
For tonight...a surface trough settling east off the higher terrain
will move into our western zones by late this afternoon and clear
the area by early Tuesday morning. This is being driven by a modest
low pressure system moving along the North Dakota/Canada border.
Westerly winds will remain elevated overnight and thus we have
boosted low temperatures tonight. Values now range from the middle
20s where snowpack remains heaviest the low 30s elsewhere across the
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Can`t rule out gusts reaching 25
to even 30 mph out of the west in the predawn hours Tuesday with the
strongest of these occurring over the Sandhills.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Tuesday/Wednesday...a quick one-two set of mid-level disturbances
will track across the Northern then Central Plains within the
northwesterly flow. The first will draw a cool front of Pacific
origin across the area early Tuesday. This will actually introduce a
slight increase in low-level moisture. Dew points are likely to
climb into the upper 20s and even lower 30s for much of Nebraska.
This will offset the warmer temperatures as forecast highs climb
into the 50s/60s each day with even a few locations making a run at
the low 70s in far southwest Nebraska. Even so, fire weather
concerns will increase each day as westerly winds strengthen. NBM
probabilities show high likelihood of gusts exceeding 40 mph in our
western zones each day, up to 80% Tuesday for the eastern Panhandle
and up to 90% for a much larger coverage area on Wednesday. Even
with the increased low-level moisture Tuesday, humidity values will
fall to around 20% for our far south and southwest zones. How far
east the wind gusts make it will be the limiting factor and will
highlight near-critical conditions as a result. The second shortwave
will have more direct impacts locally as a surface low takes shape
over southwest South Dakota. Moisture should continue to increase as
an atmospheric river takes aim across central California and crosses
the Intermountain West. The result will be local dew points climbing
into the upper 30s to lower 40s by midday as NAEFS guidance
highlights water vapor transport exceeding the 90th percentile. Even
with the anomalous mid-level moisture, lapse rates aloft should
steepen and combined with high low-level moisture and mild
temperatures will lead to negative lifted indices and modest
instability. While this likely will fall short of full-on
thunderstorms, this should lead to some convective elements with the
passing low pressure and more showery precipitation. Ensemble
probabilities remain muted for the local area but some deterministic
solutions show more spotty precipitation with locally heavier
amounts noted in QPF output. While the event still falls outside of
the HREF domain, NAM Nest/HRRR show narrow plumes of heavier amounts
in their latest solutions and lends confidence in showery/shallow
convection based activity. How much of western Nebraska sees this
activity remains the larger question and most deterministics
contradict NBM probabilities and show largely dry conditions for
much of western Nebraska outside far north central. Further
southwest, stronger winds will develop as a narrow belt of h7 flow
extends off the Laramie Range. As mentioned, NBM wind gust
probabilities increase from Tuesday to Wednesday and gust potential
exceeding 48 knots hits 50% in our western tier of counties. For
now, confidence in seeing High Wind Warning (50+ knot) criteria
being met is low but will advise subsequent shifts to monitor
closely. Even with humidity not quite reaching Red Flag Warning
criteria, the expected strong winds will prove problematic for any
fire starts in the area.
Thursday/Friday...more significant fire weather conditions appear
likely for the end of the work week. High pressure will stall across
the Great Basin with strong mid-level flow continuing overhead.
Downsloping flow will begin to advect dry air as the anomalous
moisture content is shunted south thanks to a Pacific cool front.
Afternoon dew points will fall into the teens to possibly single
digits in our west as gusty winds develop each day. Though NBM gust
probabilities fall off for Thursday, BUFKIT data still shows some
potential for reaching 25 mph in our western zones. With current
forecast humidity minimums in the upper teens, will continue to
highlight elevated to near-critical. With forecast highs near the
median value of NBM output, I don`t anticipate much if any change to
Thursday`s values. Friday will be much more concerning as
temperatures appear likely to increase with little to no change in
low-level moisture. Deeper mixing will tap into stronger winds
exceeding 2km AGL and momentum transfer should support gusts
exceeding 30 mph for much of far western Nebraska. As it stands now,
the forecast calls for critical conditions for most locations west
of Highway 83 and later forecasts may require headlines to account
for this. Adding to the concern is the current forecast of highs
falls short of higher NBM percentile output by roughly 4-6F for the
local area. This suggests current forecast humidity minimums of the
low to middle teens could decrease further with subsequent
forecasts. Folks should closely monitor later forecasts to stay up
to date on the potential threat.
Saturday into next week...confidence has increased regarding an
invasion of colder air from a strong Arctic front. Timing of this
feature into western Nebraska remains somewhat in question though
the lingering outlier solution from the GFS has now come into better
agreement with persist ECMWF/GEM output. This suggests frontal
passage (FROPA) sometime Saturday with a large variation in
temperatures from north to south across the area. In fact, NBM MaxT
standard deviations remain quite large at 10-18F for much of
Nebraska. So confidence in more precise temperatures is limited at
this time. Even so, it appears fairly certain that forecast high
temperatures will decrease at least slightly for Saturday and perhaps
more significantly for Sunday. Precipitation will likely accompany
the FROPA with probabilities peaking later Saturday into Sunday (40-
60% for measurable precipitation). Of course with the incoming
cooler air, precipitation type will likely see a change from rain to
at least a rain/snow mix. For now, I will keep a vague mention until
timing of cold air arrival as well as greatest PoPs can be sorted
out. Any cold snap appears to be short lived with return southerly
flow behind departing high pressure likely to return and
temperatures rebounding appropriately for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Abundant mid and high level cloudiness will track a cross
western and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. For
tonight through Tuesday morning expect scattered to broken
ceilings ranging from 20000 to 25000 FT AGL. Broken ceilings
will lower further during the afternoon hours ending up around
10000 FT AGL by Tuesday evening. Winds will generally be under
10 KTS at the KLBF terminal Tuesday, however, northwesterly
winds Tuesday afternoon may gust up to 25 KTS at the KVTN
terminal.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion