048
FXUS63 KLBF 081126
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible early this morning across
portions of northern into central Nebraska. A few of these
storms could be severe,with a threat for large hail and
damaging winds.
- Much warmer temperatures return to areas along and west of
Highway 83 on Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the upper 90s
to around 100.
- Rain/thunderstorm increase Wednesday through the end of next
week.
- High temperatures start out very warm the first of next week,
but then cool considerably by the latter part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
The primary concern for the short term will revolve around the
threat for strong to severe thunderstorms through early this
afternoon across portions of the Sandhills and central Nebraska.
Currently, a 30kt southeasterly low level jet has developed across
the Panhandle. In association with this, a plume of MUCAPE as high
as 2500-3000J/kg is overspreading western and southwest Nebraska.
This elevated instability is also coincident with strong deep layer
shear, with effective shear magnitude as high as 45-55kts. By
sunrise this morning, the low level jet is expected to gradually
translate eastwards, with the core of this jet centering over the
Sandhills with time. This is expected to promote at least scattered
thunderstorm development, within the overlap of ample MUCAPE/shear
across northern Nebraska. Guidance remains in good agreement with
respect to convective initiation, though solutions vary widely on
coverage and eventual strength of storms. The background environment
does suggest at least some threat for large hail, especially with
newer updrafts as they remain at least semi-discrete. The majority
of guidance then suggests some semblance of upscale growth with
time, and this would eventually limit the large hail threat. This
could bring some threat for damaging winds, though confidence in
this remains low and will be tied to just how stable the boundary
layer becomes. Convection is expected to quickly exit off to the
east of the area by early afternoon, with confidence then waning
with respect to temperatures and any additional thunderstorms this
evening. Residual outflow and convective debris will likely have big
impacts on high temperatures today, especially east of HWY 83.
Trends will continue to be monitored, though downwards adjustments
may be needed should clouds linger longer than currently expected.
Residual subsidence also casts significant doubt on additional
thunderstorms this evening, though widely scattered high based
storms are possible for far southwest Nebraska. Recent high-res
guidance suggests this activity will largely stay off to the
southwest of the area, and the current forecast is dry this evening
to reflect this. Regardless, warmer temperatures can be expected west
of HWY 83, where morning storms should have little to no impact,
where highs will climb into the upper 90s. Humidity will not be high
enough to increase heat indicies to heat advisory levels, though a
hot day can be expected nonetheless.
Another warm day is expected for Sunday, with H7-H85 temperatures
again hovering near the 90th percentile climo across western
Nebraska. This translates to highs again in the upper 90s to near
100F, primarily for areas along and west of HWY 83. As with today,
expecting heat indices to remain in the middle 90s with lesser
humidity in place across western Nebraska. This could also bring
some threat for fire weather concerns amid the lowered humidity,
along with breezy east-southeast winds. Warm air aloft looks to keep
convection again at a minimum for much of the day, though some
guidance does hint at southeastward moving convection off the Black
Hills by early evening. Confidence in this is not overly high,
though some threat for damaging winds could develop for areas near
the HWY 20 corridor Sunday evening should any convection sustain off
the Black Hills.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the Four Corners
region the through the first of next week. This will allow for some
monsoonal-subtropical moisture to rotate north and then eastward
across our area around the ridge periphery. Monday into Tuesday
should remain mostly dry and continued quite warm, with highs well
in the 90s at most locations.
The upper level ridging flattens some with the center translating
into the southern plains my the middle and latter parts of next
week. Ensemble guidance suggests somewhat stronger winds aloft will
develop southward from the northern plains as the ridge flattens. At
the same time, mean PWAT values will be on the increase as the
monsoonal moisture increases. The ENS suggests values nearing 1.5"
by Wednesday night into Thursday. Several embedded shortwaves are
expected within the westerly flow aloft on the northern periphery
of the southern plains upper high. The result will be increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and beyond.
A considerable cool down also looks to be on tap by the end of next
week. A Canadian airmass settles southward into the northern and
central plains brining relief from the hot temperatures. In fact,
current forecast guidance suggests highs may struggle out of the
upper 60s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026
A cluster of thunderstorms will track to the southeast though
north central and into central Nebraska through the morning.
Variable and potentially gusty winds will occur in and near the
storms. In addition, an area of stratus clouds and MVFR and
local IFR will persist to the south and west of the storms
across western and southwest Nebraska. All of this should end by
late morning, with VFR conditions all areas by midday.
Southerly surface winds of 10-15 kts can be expected this
afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion