308
FXUS63 KLBF 142026
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
326 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight with
the best chances for precipitation in the panhandle,
southwestern into portions of central Nebraska.
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms looks likely Saturday
evening with the greatest threat from the panhandle into
southwestern Nebraska. Heavy rain is possible.
- The pattern will remain active into early next week with daily
threats for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
The H5 pattern this morning was highlighted by high pressure
across the southeastern CONUS. Ridging extended north of the
high into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. Further west, a
broad trough of low pressure extended from British Columbia,
south to approximately 300 miles off the coast of southern
California. Broad southwesterly flow extended from the west
coast, east to the central and northern plains. Within this flow
a couple of strong disturbances were noted. The first was
exiting Nebraska to the east and a second disturbance was
approaching the Four Corners as of midday. The first disturbance
led to a broad swath of precipitation from northwestern Kansas
into south central, central and eastern Nebraska earlier today.
This afternoon, a broad shield of cloudiness, in association
with the Four Corners disturbance continued to lift into
southwestern and central Colorado. As of 2 PM CDT under partly
to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures ranged from 74 at O`Neill
to 87 at Ogallala.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Precipitation chances and the threat for severe storms are the
main forecast challenges for tonight into Saturday Night. A
shortwave trough will lift across Colorado into the evening
hours, initiating convection over the front ranges of Colorado
and southeastern Wyoming. This activity will track to the east-
northeast into western Kansas, southwestern Nebraska and the
southern Nebraska Panhandle this evening. PWATS this afternoon
are 1.55" for LBF per the latest NAM soln. This is well above
the 90th percentile for today. Mid level winds remain weak today
and surface to 6KM wind speeds are around 10 KTS. The
combination of weak steering winds and high PWATS is concerning
for heavy rain tonight, especially over southwestern Nebraska.
Even with the heavy rain threat, the bulk of heavy rain last
night moved southeast of the forecast area. That being said,
with 3 HR FFG generally 2.5" or higher across SW Nebraska and
the lack of rainfall last night, will forgo any flood watches
for the area. However, this may not be the case for Saturday if
heavy rain can materialize tonight. As for the severe threat,
with the weak mid level winds and light winds at the surface,
very limited deep layer wind shear exists tonight across the
area. In addition, mid level lapse rates are steep across the
panhandle, but quickly decrease toward the highway 83 corridor.
That being said, the overall severe threat across the area
should be limited to the southwest FA and appears to be a wind
threat. Convection will transition east overnight. Was initially
concerned about fog in the east toward daybreak, but the latest
hi res solns are not sold on that idea. The convective setup
for Saturday afternoon/evening will be similar to tonight`s
setup. Convection is expected to fire over the front ranges of
Colorado and SE Wyoming Saturday afternoon. Very steep mid level
lapse rates are forecast from the southern half of the
panhandle south to far southwestern Nebraska Saturday afternoon
into the early evening hours. With respect to deep layer shear,
it is more favorable for severe storms Saturday with forecast
deep layer shear around 40 KTS. As for severe mode, large hail
and damaging winds will be the initial threat with a transition
to wind and heavy rain (ie. fcst. PWATS above the 90th%ile)
Saturday evening/overnight. Although, the heavy rain threat may
not be as pronounced as tonight`s given stronger forecast mid
level winds-favoring faster storm motions. Current CAMS develop
a MCS and lift it across SW Nebraska into northern KS overnight.
This forecast is also supported by the latest ECMWF SOT/EFI
which highlights SW Nebraska for heavy rain Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
Southwesterly flow aloft will transition to westerly on Sunday
as high pressure retrogrades west across Texas. Another round of
thunderstorms is possible across the western half of the
forecast area Sunday as the models initiate convection off to
the west of the forecast area. Steering winds will carry this
activity east southeast across southwestern Nebraska into
northwestern Kansas. Limited CAPE across the eastern 2/3rds of
the forecast area along with weak mid level lapse rates, should
keep the severe threat across far western portions of the
forecast area. West northwest flow aloft will persist through
Tuesday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. By Wednesday, the mid range solns. begin to amplify
ridging across the western CONUS. This will place the central
and northern plains in more northwesterly flow aloft. This will
limit precipitation chances toward the end of next week. As for
temperatures, cooler air will back into the eastern forecast
area next week with highs in the 70s Wednesday, Thursday and
Friday. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s in the west and
southwestern forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026
For the KLBF terminal: Expect some clearing in sky cover this
afternoon with scattered clouds around 20000 FT AGL. Clouds will
then increase later this evening with overcast skies around
10000 FT AGL. There is also a threat for thunderstorms at the
terminal with the greatest threat from 04z to 10z Saturday. For
now, will handle this with a prob30 group. Toward daybreak
Saturday, there is a threat for patchy fog with visibilities as
low as 3SM from 12z to 15z Saturday. Skies will then scatter
out by late morning. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will gradually
clear out this afternoon with scattered ceilings around 6000 FT
AGL. Overnight skies will cloud over with broken to overcast
ceilings around 4000 FT AGL. Expect broken coverage to persist
at the terminal through 18z Saturday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion