786
FXUS63 KLBF 270643
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
143 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog, with visibilities down to a quarter mile are
  likely through mid morning Sunday. There is a small threat
  for light precipitation tonight in the west with a better
  threat for showers and thunderstorms in the west Monday
  afternoon.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday through
  Wednesday night. Questions remain on how it will evolve
  overall, but the remnants of Hurricane Polo from the Pacific
  could have an impact, potentially producing areas of excessive
  rainfall. Drier and cooler weather is expected Thursday into
  the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Today through Monday night...Areas of fog will
continue across a large portion of the forecast area through mid
morning. Winds will shift around to the east then southeast this
afternoon as high pressure builds into North Dakota. With the
easterly winds, cloud cover may persist in some eastern areas well
into the afternoon hours. This will limit highs to around 70.
Further west and southwest, highs are expected to reach into the
middle to upper 70s with possible low 80s over far SW Nebraska.
Readings in SW Nebraska are expected to run slightly cooler than
Saturday`s as easterly winds and moisture advection will hold back
temps. By afternoon, a frontal boundary will become established
across the Pine Ridge and far NW Nebraska. A weak disturbance will
lift from Wyoming into far western Nebraska and western South
Dakota. Am anticipating at least a slight chance for isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the far NW forecast area tonight.
Feel the best chances are INVOF the frontal boundary, ie. mainly
Sheridan County. Overnight, low level winds will shift around to the
southeast with the models indicating a high probability of low cloud
development overnight. ATTM, the short range model solns and the NBM
ensembles only show a weak signal for fog development tonight. That
being said, will keep this out of the forecast with this package.
With the expected cloud cover, lows will remain mild tonight with
readings mainly in the middle to upper 50s. For reference: For North
Platte, if you look after August 1st, we still have not hit below 50
degrees for a low temperature. the average date is August 23rd for
first occurrence of sub 50 degree lows. The latest sub 50 min temp
for North Platte is September 19th. We are currently 8 days beyond
that and counting. If September were to end today, it would be the
3rd warmest September on record.

On Monday, upper level flow will transition to more southwesterly,
leading to the development of a surface trough over the front ranges
of Colorado and Wyoming. After a cloudy start, southerly winds will
increase, advecting moisture into the area. By afternoon, forecast
PWATs reach 1.20 to 1.40 per the latest NAM12 forecast which is well
above the daily climatological max for North Platte. With the cloudy
start and abundant low level moisture, highs will reach into the 70s
across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the
late afternoon hours across northeastern Colorado and the Cheyenne
Ridge. With southwesterly flow aloft, storms will track northeast
into western then northwestern portions of the forecast area Monday
night. Convection should sustain itself overnight thanks to a nice
low level jet which noses north into central Nebraska. The forecast
tonight initialized with widespread likely pops across the forecast
area and given the latest NAM12 and GFS solns this evening, this
appears to be on track.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Southwest flow aloft will be in place across the area ahead of the
Desert Southwest closed upper low will swing eastward toward the
Southern and Central Plains Wednesday. At the same time, the
remnants of Hurricane Polo and it`s associated tropical moisture,
will be pulled northeast and become absorbed into the upper
circulation of the upper low by Wednesday. Operational models as
well as the Ensemble members of the ECMWF and GFS are starting to
focus the potential for heavy rainfall farther to the north
impacting western and north central Nebraska.

On Tuesday, the upper low should be located across Arizona. Mid and
upper level sub-tropical moisture, with the remnants Hurricane Polo,
will be streaming northeastward across New Mexico into Colorado,
Kansas and Nebraska ahead of the low. At the surface, low pressure
should deepening across eastern Colorado, with an inverted surface
trough extending northeastward across southwest into north central
Nebraska. The low-levels will also be very moist, with the NAM
projecting lower to mid 60s dew points in place. This model is the
farther west and focuses some very heavy rainfall amounts near the
inverted trough. Other models are not as aggressive, so this will
have to be monitored.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the surface low associated with former
Hurricane Polo will track northward across New Mexico and into
southeast Colorado by midday Wednesday. This has been supported by
last several runs of the ECMWF and the ENS. Heavy rainfall will be
associated with this feature, with widespread amounts of 2"+ across
much of eastern Colorado into western Kansas. The heavier rainfall
has shifted a bit northward into southern Nebraska compared to 24
hrs ago. The latest 27/00Z operational run of the ECMWF is
projecting a band of 1-3" of rainfall roughly along I-80 and points
south to along the Nebraska/Kansas border. The GFS is now similar,
with even heavier amounts. The key will be the northern stream.
Trends are for a the northern stream to remain farther north across
Montana, through North Dakota and into northern Minnesota. This
allows for the tropical rainfall from Polo to shift into southern
Nebraska. There will be a rather sharp cut-off to the precipitation
on the northern side, so future forecasts will have to be monitored
for a better idea of where this cut-off will be. Bottom line is
there will be potential for excessive rainfall amounts across a
large portions of the region. Some flooding could materialize so
future model runs and trends will be monitored carefully.

By Thursday, it appears that the northern stream flow will begin to
sag southward and this will focus the heavier rainfall south and
east of the area. In addition, a cooler Canadian airmass will sink
southward into the region. Mainly dry weather is expected Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Visibilities will fall overnight at both the KLBF and KVTN
terminals, reaching around a quarter to half a mile at times.
Visibilities will be lowest from 09z to 15z Sunday with
improving visibilities there after. By late morning into the
afternoon hours, expect scattered to broken ceilings around
20000 FT AGL at the KLBF terminal and 2500 to 5000 FT AGL at the
KVTN terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion