FXUS63 KLBF 271903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
203 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Upper level ridging encompasses much of the western CONUS as upper
level high pressure is currently situated across the southwestern
CONUS. A weak upper level low pressure trough is currently located
across eastern Alberta. Additionally, an upper level closed low
pressure system is located in northern Quebec accompanied with an
upper level trough extending south into the South Atlantic states.
South of this trough, Hurricane Ian is located north of far western
tip of Cuba. At the surface, high pressure is extending from
northern Ontario into Upper Midwest and portions of the High Plains.

As the aforementioned surface high begins to track south, northeast
winds will shift to the east by this evening before becoming
southeasterly through the overnight period. Quiet and dry conditions
will continue as the surface high pressure builds and advances south
into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region tonight. Overnight lows
are expected to fall into the 40s across the region which is at or
slightly above the climatological norm.

For Wednesday, a tight pressure gradient will form in between a
deepening surface trough over Wyoming and the high pressure across
Great Lakes region leading to breezy conditions. Given this tight
pressure gradient and with similar thinking to the midnight shift,
have continued to trend speeds up toward the NBM 90th percentile.
This has resulted in these gusty south/southeasterly winds
increasing through the day with wind gusts up to 35 mph possible
during Wednesday afternoon. With minimum relative humidity values
bottoming out at around 25 to 35 percent combined with these gusty
winds could result in some elevated fire weather concerns. Will
proceed with highlighting these concerns in the HWO and FWF.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Breezy conditions continue on Thursday as surface troughing extends
into the Panhandle. South/southwesterly winds will be strongest east
of Highway 61 with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Similar to
Wednesday, minimum relative humidity values fall back to 20 to 30
percent and gusty winds could lead to continued elevated fire
weather concerns. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will climb into
the mid to upper 80s west of Highway 83 to the upper 70s and low 80s

As the upper level low departs Quebec into the north Atlantic, an
upper level trough over the PNW will track into the Northern Rockies
on Thursday pushing a cold front into the Panhandle late Friday.
with the passage of the front precipitation chances enter into the
forecast late Friday through the weekend. Confidence in exact
locations, amounts, and timing remains low at this time as
influences from Hurricane Ian will affect how the systems progress.
Behind the front, temperatures are expected to cool off into the low
to mid 70s across the western Sandhills then regionwide Sunday into

Though temperatures do become at or below normal for a brief spell
at the beginning of next week, CPC 6-10 as well as 8-14 Day
Temperature Outlooks favor above normal temperatures returning.
Precipitation chances dwindle back to a dry forecast which is also
suggested by the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlooks
favoring below normal precipitation chances coming back yet again.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

VFR conditions are expected across central and western Nebraska
through Wednesday and winds will generally be light through
tonight. However, the low level wind field will strengthen
overnight and winds just above the surface will increase
considerably. With the core of strongest winds remaining across
the northern panhandle of Nebraska do not expect low level wind
shear criteria to be met at KVTN or KLBF, but aviation interests
should expect a tight vertical wind speed gradient just above the
surface through daybreak. After daybreak on Wednesday expect
diurnal mixing will bring some wind down to the surface with gusty
conditions from mid morning through Wednesday afternoon.





NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion