FXUS63 KLBF 260811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

H5 analysis tonight had a closed low off the coast of
Washington state with a trough extending south to off the coast of
central California. Southwesterly flow aloft extended from this
trough east to the Central Rockies. East of the Rockies, a zonal
pattern extended eastward across the remainder of the CONUS. Across
Canada, closed low pressure was located over northern Saskatchewan
with another low over northeastern Ontario. Within this
southwesterly flow across the western CONUS, numerous embedded
shortwaves were noted tonight. As of 1 AM CDT, one of these
shortwaves was located over north central Nebraska and has led to
the development of thunderstorms overnight, roughly along and north
of highway 2 from Antioch to Dunning and along highway 91 from
Dunning to Ericson. This activity is expected to continue well into
the early morning hours, thanks to the presence of a low level jet.
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy overnight and 2 AM CDT
temperatures were in the middle to upper 60s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Thunderstorm chances
this afternoon/tonight and severe potential are the main forecast
challenges in the near term. Southerly and southeasterly winds will
increase today as surface low pressure develops over the higher
terrain of sern Wyoming and nern Colorado. The southerly winds will
transport additional low level moisture north and westward into
western and northwestern Nebraska this afternoon. A surface frontal
boundary will lift north today, becoming anchored across
northwestern Nebraska and southern South Dakota by 21z this
afternoon. A mid level disturbance will approach western Nebraska by
21z. With surface heating and steepening of lapse rates,
thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the western Panhandle
around 21z. As they lift to the east northeast, they will encounter
decent mid level shear of 30 to 40 KTS and CAPES of 3000 to 4000
J/KG. Very steep mid level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9C/KM in the
northern panhandle, will lead to a large hail threat. Further south,
additional thunderstorms may initiate in the southern panhandle and
eastern Colorado INVOF the dryline. Shear is weaker further south,
so the severe threat will be diminished somewhat. Large hail will be
the main threat initially, transitioning over to a wind threat
during the evening hours. As for precipitation chances, will place
the highest pops in the north, where low level moisture is most
prevalent, and where the nose of the low level jet is forecast to
lie this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

High pressure will strengthen across the central and southern
plains Thursday into Saturday. This will lead to hot and dry
conditions across western and north central Nebraska. Widespread
highs in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees are expected for
Friday and Saturday. Beginning Saturday night, the ridging will
begin to transition east into the Mississippi valley. Thunderstorm
chances will increase first in the west and northwest Saturday
night into Sunday, with the threat shifting east for Monday into
Tuesday. By Monday, temperatures will moderate back to the middle
to upper 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

VFR conditions will continue for the KLBF and KVTN terminals
through the next 24 hours. Current radar imagery shows showers and
thunderstorms moving northeast across north central Nebraska. Will
keep mention of VCSH in the TAF for KVTN as the showers are just
to the east of the terminal. These showers and thunderstorms
should be out of the area by 12z Wednesday. The next round of
storms that will affect the area will be after 00z Thursday across
the entire area.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion