638
FXUS63 KLBF 311144
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
544 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fire weather concerns today and tomorrow across western and
  southwest Nebraska. Conditions could expand areawide Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will be the main
  story right through the start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

A weak area of surface low pressure will shift southeast through the
Missouri River Valley today. This is driven by a weak shortwave
diving southeastward across the northern plains within northwest
flow aloft. Meanwhile, upper level ridging will remain in place
across the Rockies. Overall, today`s weather will be similar to
Tuesday. Continued to trend temperatures on the warmer side, with
Tuesday`s observed highs topping out near P90 of guidance. With the
bump in temperatures, southwest Nebraska and the southern Panhandle
will be very near 60 degrees this afternoon. This, coupled with
northwest winds gusting near 25 mph and humidity falling to 23-25%,
leads to elevated fire weather concern across this area. Humidity
will be a bit higher across the Sandhills, but still looking for
gusty northwest winds and at least some elevated concern.

A backdoor cold front pushes southwest into north central Nebraska
tonight. This is driven by the weak northern plains shortwave. A
brief shot of Canadian air will usher in, with lows dropping into
the teens. The front will hang up and become nearly stationary
across eastern Nebraska into eastern South Dakota Thursday. This
will separate the milder Pacific air to the west and Canadian air to
the east. Holt, Boyd and Wheeler counties will be very near the
front, with temperatures possibly staying a bit colder than forecast
if the front ends up a bit farther to the west. Meanwhile, well west
of the stationary boundary, elevated fire weather concerns develop
once again. Especially west of Highway 61 across the western
Sandhills and the central and southern Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Ridging aloft remains across the Rockies right through the end of
the week. The ridge appears it will break down this weekend, and as
this occurs, starting to see a classic signal for elevated to
perhaps near-critical fire weather concerns. The main threat would
come Sunday, as highs are now forecast in the lower to mid 60s and
humidity as low as 20-25% across far southwest Nebraska and the
southern Panhandle. Winds appear to be quite gusty as well, so this
day will definitely have to be monitored.

Otherwise, the period continues to look dry, with above normal
temperatures forecast right though Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across western and north central
Nebraska through the day today. A backdoor cold front will push
into north central Nebraska tonight. This will bring with it
MVFR and local IFR ceilings. There is some uncertainly on how
far west the lower ceilings will make it. Right now it appears
they will stay just to the east of Valentine and impact ANW and
ONL areas. Winds will be west to northwest 10-20 kts today and
then become light tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion