261
FXUS63 KLBF 230552
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1252 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Red Flag Warning for today and Thursday for all of western
and north central Nebraska
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
with the potential for dry lightning
- Isolated thunderstorms possible late tonight across north
central Nebraska
- Increasing confidence in precipitation Saturday night through
Monday. Beneficial amounts continue to look more favorable
for the area.
- Wet snow may occur across the northwest portion of the
forecast area on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
The main concern in the short term will be critical fire
weather conditions today and Thursday and thunderstorm potential
this afternoon and evening.
For this afternoon a sfc trof will push eastward with some isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorm development possible. Storms that
develop across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 83, are
expected to be high based. Soundings across western Nebraska have
the inverted v signature and thus expect thunderstorms to remain
mostly dry with very little rainfall expected and the potential from
some downdraft winds that could potentially be 50 mph or greater.
There will also be a threat for dry lightning as well. Southerly
winds should advect some moisture into portions of the Sandhills and
north central Nebraska, generally along and east of HWY 83. As
storms move eastward into the evening hours they may move into a
more favorable environment for more sfc based storm development.
This will then lead into main hazard of concern becoming a hail
threat, although there may be more moisture at the sfc to the mid
levels east of HWY 83, still don`t expect rainfall amounts with
thunderstorms to be anything more than a few hundredths of an inch.
Tonight a low level jet will strengthen across the area. There will
be a corridor of moisture from the Sandhills into north central
Nebraska and expect some sfc based storms to develop late tonight,
generally after 11pm CDT and continue into the early morning hours.
Backing sfc winds and CAPE values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg,
confidence is increasing in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development across the northern Sandhills and will move eastward
into north central Nebraska. Could see the potential for severe hail
(greater than 1").
Winds shift overnight to the west northwest and will remain breezy
through the morning. Winds will increase into the afternoon around
20 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 mph. Soundings across western Nebraska
would suggest the strongest winds will generally along and west of
HWY 83. Min RH will also be low with most locations across southwest
Nebraska and the southern Sandhills ranging from 10 to 15 percent,
elsewhere min RH will generally be in the upper teens to around 20
percent. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 10am CDT to 8pm
CDT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend. The
northern stream system will continue to weaken to the north on
Saturday, while a southern stream upper level trough moves into the
western United States. This will result in broad southwest flow
across the region.
At the surface, low pressure is expected to develop across eastern
Colorado, with a warm front extending across Kansas and gradually
moving north. This will promote increasing moisture advection and
support deeper moisture profiles across the area Saturday night into
Sunday, especially as the warm front continues to move northward. By
early Sunday morning, increasing mid-level warm air advection and
frontogenesis, combined with southeast upslope flow, will lead to
precipitation developing and continuing through much of the day.
Recent model guidance continues to indicate an increasing potential
for a widespread precipitation event from Saturday night through
Monday morning.
The NBM 50th percentile currently suggests widespread precipitation
amounts exceeding one-half inch, while the 75th and 90th percentile
indicate potential closer to one inch. Ensemble guidance also
supports this trend, with the GEFS showing a 60 to 70 percent
probability of exceeding one-half inch, and the EPS indicating 70 to
90 percent probabilities across the Sandhills into central/north-
central Nebraska. Across southwest Nebraska, probabilities are
somewhat lower but still in the 40 to 50 percent range, increasing
confidence in a soaking precipitation event. In addition to the
rainfall, there is some potential for wet snow, particularly across
the northwest portion of the CWA, as cooler air associated with the
northern stream system lingers. Ensemble guidance suggests a 50 to
60 percent chance of at least one inch of snowfall in this area. The
primary uncertainty remains the track and speed of the weekend
system, both of which will influence overall precipitation amounts
and distribution across the region.
Heading into the early next week, cooler temperatures will follow in
the wake of the weekend system, with lows near or below freezing
Monday and Tuesday mornings. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s,
warming into the 60s by Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected to
persist, with multiple weak disturbances bringing periodic chances
for showers. Another stronger storm system may approach the region
by midweek, potentially bringing additional and better precipitation
chances. This will continued to be monitored over the next several
days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
A cold front will cross the area with winds shifting to the
northwest early this morning. Surface winds will increase to
20-30 kts later this morning and last into the afternoon hours.
VFR conditions are expected at all locations.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026
Critical fire weather conditions will continue through mid
evening across all of western and north central Nebraska.
Southerly wind gusts up to 50 MPH remain possible through sunset
with winds decreasing into the late evening hours. Winds will
then shift to the west overnight as a surface trough of low
pressure tracks through the region. In addition to gusty winds
and low RH across all of western and north central Nebraska,
there is also a threat for dry lightning tonight mainly west of
highway 83 from Valentine to North Platte. RH recovery tonight
will be meager with max RH generally less than 40 percent west
of highway 61. Between highway 83 and 61, RH recovery will range
from 40 to 60 percent. East of highway 83, RH recovery will
range from 60 to 90 percent.
Thursday will feature critical fire weather conditions across all
of western and north central Nebraska. Though temperatures will be
cooler, westerly winds gusting up to 40 MPH, will combine with low
relative humidities of 10 to 20 percent, producing critical fire
weather conditions across all of western and north central
Nebraska. West winds will shift to the northwest and north
Thursday evening as a cold front crosses the area. RH recovery
Thursday night will range from 70 to 85 percent across the area.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8
PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez/Labenz
AVIATION...Kulik
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion