277
FXUS63 KLBF 102259
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
559 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low but non-zero chance of precipitation across northeast
  Nebraska tonight. Little to no precipitation expected this
  weekend into next week.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Sunday through
  much of next week, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and some
  locations potentially exceeding 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Upper level ridging has started to build into across western CONUS
trekking eastward and further building into our region by this
evening, persisting into next week. While the environment is
modestly with the LBF sounding showing about 500 J/KG of CAPE as
well as ensemble guidance suggesting a broader region of CAPE up to
1200 - 1300 J/kg spliced across two regions (southwest and northeast
Nebraska), there isn`t much of a lifting mechanism to tap into this
instability. The MCV from this morning has moved further east where
confidence of that affecting our region remains low to where PoPs
have been kept at under 30 percent to account for this. Any storm
that manages to sustain itself and develop inside our CWA is not
anticipated to be severe as wind shear remains on the weaker side,
topping out at 25 kts.

With the upper level ridging building in over the evening into
Saturday, it will be the starting point for conditions to trend
warmer and drier. Low level southerly flow will begin to usher
warmer temperatures aloft with 850 temps reaching 20 - 25 C on
Saturday, with surface highs being near normal in the upper 80s to
low 90s across the region. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 50s to
low 60s with aided by the southerly flow, keeping humidity
marginal at 30 - 50 percent. This will incur moderate heat risk
to those who are sensitive to the heat, especially in portions
of north central Nebraska. This heat risk will only increase as
next week comes along.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Sunday into the middle of next week, model guidance continues to
indicate that an upper-level ridge will amplify and strengthen over
the central United States. At the surface, low pressure will develop
across the central Rockies, establishing southerly flow across the
region. Increasing warm air advection will set the stage for gusty
south winds and much warmer temperatures. Forecast 500 mb heights
are expected to approach 600 dam by early next week. ECMWF ensemble
guidance indicates these heights may reach the 99.5th percentile or
higher compared to climatology, highlighting the anomalous strength
of the upper-level ridge. In addition, 850 mb temperature anomalies
are forecast to reach 2 to 5C above normal, with the greatest
anomalies focused across the Dakotas and northern Plains. This
pattern will support hot and predominantly dry conditions as the
stronger upper-level flow remains north of the region. High
temperatures will likely climb into the mid to upper 90s across much
of the area, with some locations potentially reaching the lower
100s. The greatest potential for temperatures approaching or
exceeding 100 degrees currently appears to be across north-central
Nebraska, while much of the remainder of the area sees highs in the
mid to upper 90s. NBM percentile guidance remains somewhat less
aggressive with high temperatures. However, given the strength of
the upper-level ridge, anomalously warm temperatures aloft, and
continued dry conditions, the warmer GEFS solution appears more
representative of the expected pattern at this time. Overall, well
above normal temperatures are expected, with overnight lows
eventually warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s, especially
across north-central Nebraska. Confidence in the magnitude of the
heat remains somewhat limited due to continued differences among
model guidance. Therefore, heat headlines have been held off for
this forecast cycle, though forecast trends will be monitored
closely through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as
the heat develops.

In terms of precipitation, predominantly dry conditions are expected
as the stronger upper-level flow remains north of the region. As
mentioned above, gusty conditions are also expected as a tight
surface pressure gradient becomes established across the region.
From Monday through Thursday, wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph or greater
may occur across portions of the area. The combination of hot
temperatures, limited precipitation chances, gusty winds, and
decreasing relative humidity may result in elevated to near-critical
fire weather conditions, especially across the western Sandhills and
eastern Panhandle. This period will continue to be monitored over
the next several days.

By late next week into next weekend, the upper-level ridge may begin
to break down as a trough develops across the northeastern United
States, resulting in a transition toward northwest flow aloft across
the region. This pattern change could bring temperatures back toward
seasonal normals while also providing better opportunities for
precipitation. Confidence in the timing and evolution of this
transition remains low given the extended forecast range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24
hours. A few mid to high-level clouds are currently moving
across southwest Nebraska, including the KLBF terminal, but this
cloud cover will gradually clear through the evening. Winds will
remain light from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots through the
evening and into the overnight hours. By early Saturday morning,
winds will briefly shift to the southwest at 5 to 10 knots
before becoming southeasterly and strengthening later Saturday
morning into the afternoon. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up to 30 knots are expected by late Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Labenz

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion