770
FXUS63 KLBF 011913
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
213 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A threat for strong to severe thunderstorms late this
  afternoon and evening, mainly across portions of central and
  north central Nebraska with large to very large hail and
  damaging winds a concern.

- While most locations remain dry, low chances for showers and
  a few thunderstorms Wednesday evening and overnight.

- Thursday through Saturday night, a warmer, drier pattern
  settles over the region. Temperatures are likely to range
  from 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with limited precipitation
  chances expected.

- Increasing chances for precipitation Sunday through Monday night
  with above normal temperatures persisting.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Late this afternoon and evening...A warm front is forecast to extend
across far northern Nebraska, with a surface trough extending south
near Highway 83. Moderate instability exceeding 3000 J/kg south of
the front across the Sandhills. Deep layer shear to 40 to 50kts will
support strong to severe storms possible. SPC is forecasting a
Slight Risk area across the eastern half of north central Nebraska
south into northern Custer County. A shortwave trough currently from
northeast CO and the western Sandhills moving east, will interact
with increasing shear and instability. Isolated supercells are
possible initially late afternoon and early evening, with large to
very large hail and damaging winds possible. A tornado is also
possible with increasing low level shear toward 00Z. A cluster of
storms is expected to develop east of Cherry County, with an
increasing threat for severe damaging winds and large hail, with the
highest POPs (40 to 50) to the east across the remainder of north
central Nebraska. The activity will push east of the area after
midnight. Lows in upper the 50s to near 65.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...An upper trough will extend across
the Northwestern U.S. with an upper ridge centered over the
Southeast U.S. Across the Central Plains, southwest flow aloft, with
surface low pressure from eastern CO into central MT. Highs will
heat up to near 90, with near 95 southwest. Convection will initiate
across the higher terrain to our west during the afternoon, with
another area where storms could initiate is over over central NE by
late afternoon, though confidence is very low in this. A slight
chance for storms across the western Sandhills during the evening,
with showers and a few storms possible in the west overnight. Also a
slight chance for thunderstorms across far eastern areas as a
low level jet develops across south central into eastern NE.
Lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Upper level ridging will gradually build into the region Thursday
into the Labor Day weekend. This will bring a warmer, drier pattern
to the region through Saturday night. By Sunday and Monday, the
upper ridge may begin to flatten out across the Northern and Central
Plains as shown by the 12Z GFS. The ECMWF maintains stronger upper
level ridging. Highs Thursday through Saturday forecast to range in
the low to mid 90s, with some upper 90s southwest. As medium
range models diverge on the strength of the upper ridge Sunday
through Tuesday, highs from 85 to the low 90s. Precipitation
chances increase during this period as well, mainly during the
evening and overnight hours.

Latest ensemble guidance has increased to a 30 to 40 percent
probability of precipitation exceeding one tenth of an inch for the
24 hour period ending 12Z Monday and again 12Z Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The main aviation concern will be showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms through mid afternoon may become strong to severe
across north central into central Nebraska by late afternoon
and evening. Have included VCTS at KVTN by 22Z, with a TEMPO
from 23Z to 02Z for -TSRA. Hail, gusty erratic winds are
possible, with confidence too low to include attm. Other
isolated storms could affect the KLBF terminal toward 00Z/2nd,
but did not include a mention attm. After midnight, some patchy
fog is expected across portions of north central NE, and have
included 4SM BR at KVTN 10Z until 15Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion