088
FXUS63 KLBF 141756
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1256 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase for Wednesday, with spotty activity during
the day increasing to more expansive rain with a few embedded
thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Cooler daytime highs will persist Wednesday and Thursday before a
cold front moves through Thursday night and introduces the potential
for a frost and/or freeze Friday morning.

- Moderate to high confidence in below normal temperatures
continuing into the first part of the weekend.

- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and milder conditions by
the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Early this morning, high pressure continues to sink south across the
Northern Plains. Centering over the North Dakota/South Dakota
border, winds will veer from northerly to easterly. Resulting
easterly upslope flow will allow persistent cloud cover to linger
across the High Plains, holding temperatures to mild levels for many
as reading struggle to fall out of the middle 40s. Meanwhile,
beneath mostly clear skies, cooler temperatures should materialize
with lows in the upper 30s. Should high pressure manage to nose in
further from the north, these values may fall further and promote
some frost concern but at this time this appears unlikely.

Today/Tonight...upper-level low situated over the Four Corners
region will slowly lift northeast across the Central Rockies. This
feature should eject onto the Plains as a positive tilt trough with
an h5 low filling in with time. Lee troughing will deepen through
the day though with decreasing local influence from departing high
pressure, winds are not anticipated to ramp up too much. Persistent
easterly moist flow, however, will support increasing rain and even
low-end thunderstorm chances later in the day beneath cloudy skies.
The result will be a near persistence forecast with highs holding in
the 50s, or roughly 5-15F below normal for middle October
climatology. Precipitation should arrive in a few waves: the first
being early this morning via steady upslope moist flow along with a
surge of richer moisture behind the departing high pressure.
Consecutive HRRR runs shows isolated to widely scattered showers
lifting north and east through late morning/early afternoon along a
subtle converging line. While this should limit daytime activity to
just a few hours, greater synoptic lift will arrive in the evening
with strong height falls and DCVA which will lead to broader rain
potential Wednesday night into Thursday. To highlight this, PoPs
were held into the Chance category (25-55%) until the evening when
probabilities ramp up to 75-95% for much of western Nebraska. By
Wednesday night, the parent trough will have crossed the Front Range
and should be located invof KCYS/KSNY. The low temperature forecast
largely leans on the model blend which produces upper 30s in the
western Sandhills to middle 40s further east. With active
precipitation in the area, the potential exists to see a few wet
snowflakes given those temperatures. For now, any threat of snow
appears to remain west of the local area and closer to the I-25
corridor. Marginal temperatures now with potential for these to rise
with subsequent forecasts should keep any wintry threat out of the
area.

Thursday/Thursday Night...upper-level low will continue to lift
north and east, weakening as it does as it interacts with a stronger
northern stream trough diving east southeast out of the Canadian
Prairies. While a surface low never truly takes shape, the upper low
will draw in drier air on the southern periphery with greatest
mesoscale lift via fgen/convergence in the northwest quadrant. This
could take a bite out of precipitation amounts, particularly for
areas south of Highway 2 into southwest Nebraska. The NAM12 output
shows this potential well with largely dry conditions for much of
the day save for a brief window in the afternoon from a weakening
band arriving from the north. NBM probabilities for > 0.25" rainfall
for 12z through 00z Fri (7am to 7pm CDT Thursday) peak around 60%
across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska but drop to < 40%
south of Highway 23. This suggests fairly reasonable variability in
where this drier air will set up so it remains to be seen how far
north this will hinder rainfall. Stronger high pressure will extend
south along the lee of the Northern Rockies. As a surface cool front
pushes through, winds should increase out of the northwest
considerably and lead to a fairly windy day. Even more pessimistic
output from lower NBM percentile levels show expansive 25 to 30 mph
gusts. Probabilistic data supports strong winds with 60%+
probabilities for exceeding 34 knot (39 mph) gusts sometime during
the day. BUFKIT soundings show a fairly low inversion, roughly 1km
AGL, with peak wind magnitudes beneath this feature only around 40
knots. This supports the idea that High Wind Warning criteria (50
knot) is not expected to be met. Daytime highs should reach the 50s
across the area with precipitation potential tapering off through
the late day. Behind the departing front with strong Canadian high
pressure approaching, will need to watch for the potential for
frost/freeze conditions Thursday night. NBM paints 80%+
probabilities for lows falling below 36F for the central Sandhills
west into the Panhandle. Decreasing this to 32F or colder keeps 60%+
for mainly Sheridan County west into the Panhandle. Even with
lingering breezy winds, statistical guidance remains quite bullish
with widespread low to middle 20s for lows increasing to middle 30s
further east towards Central Nebraska. The low temperature forecast
was nudged down slightly using a light MET/METBC blend but this was
largely done just to increase the footprint of frost in the grids
with little other changes to the going forecast/messaging. Being a
few days out still, will await greater confidence before considering
any Frost/Freeze headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Beyond Thursday night, strong upper level ridging will return to the
western US allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of
Canada bringing a return to dry conditions through the weekend. With
this high, cold air advection will push in a much colder airmass
into the northern and central Great Plains. With 850 mb temperatures
in the -1 to 4 C range on Friday, surface highs will struggle to
rise out of the 50s. Highs will gradually moderate through the
weekend, rising back into the 70s by Sunday. This milder, near
normal air will persist through the beginning of next week.

For low temperatures, continued CAA into the region will result in
widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s continue into
Friday night/Saturday morning. Some locations across southwest
Nebraska may even drop into the upper 20s. Given this colder
airmass, frost and freeze potential is likely again on Saturday
morning. Similar to Friday morning, headlines are not in place, but
if this colder temperature trend remains consistent and confidence
increases, they will likely be necessary. Stay tuned to the latest
forecasts for the most up to date information regarding frost/freeze
potential. Similar to high temperatures, overnight lows will also
begin to rise beyond Saturday returning to the 40s through the
beginning of next week. Therefore, beyond Friday and Saturday
morning, frost/freeze is not expected across our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

MVFR ceilings will spread northward across the region late this
afternoon into this evening. Rain showers will also become more
numerous though the afternoon and especially through tonight
into Thursday morning. Localized IFR ceilings are expected
across the Sandhills, central and southwest Nebraska after
mid-evening tonight. Winds will generally be light, but switch
to the north to northeast and increase Thursday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion