503
FXUS63 KLBF 131903
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
203 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The cooler weekend remains on track with highs only reaching
  the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday.

- Outside of decaying storms approaching southwest Nebraska
  Sunday evening, dry conditions are expected through much of
  the forecast period.

- Temperatures return to above normal values by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms developed at the
intersection of a surface cool front and increasingly moist
southerly flow into the boundary. The background environment was
characterized by ample deep-layer shear and strong elevated
instability and resulted in multiple instances of severe hail.
Training thunderstorms along the boundary also led to heavy rainfall
with multiple reports of 2-3"+ in portions of Loup and Garfield
Counties. Activity quickly exited the area to the east by 10-11am
CDT with dry conditions resuming across the region thereafter. High
clouds continue to stream in over northwest Nebraska with diurnal
cumulus developing over the Sandhills.

For tonight...surface high pressure will continue to settle south
and east towards the Central Plains. Skies will see increasing
coverage and because of this, a purely radiational cooling night
does not appear likely. That said, temperatures will settle into the
low to middle 40s for many or nearly 10F below normal. This will set
up primarily across the Sandhills with milder temperatures further
south and east.

Sunday/Sunday Night...temperatures off the surface will continue to
fall heading into Sunday with h85 values settling around 10-12C.
Though CAA will wane during the day, daytime temperatures will be
their coolest of the forecast period. Values will range from the
middle 60s to lower 70s west to east. Winds will be weaker though a
few gusts nearing 20 mph remain possible. By evening, a shortwave
trough will track southeast through eastern Wyoming. Increasingly
easterly moist flow will run up to the Front Range and lead to
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With westerly mid-level flow,
activity should push off the higher terrain and approach our
southwest zones. Have maintained Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs in our
southwest but this may be rather bullish. Recent NBM probabilities
for measurable rain have decreased with most deterministic solutions
remaining dry in the local area. Still though, modest lapse rates
within a saturated layer may be enough to get a few isolated showers
and general thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected and
rainfall amounts, should one be lucky enough to see some, will
remain on the order of a few hundredths at best. Lows will again
fall across much of the area with similar lower 40s to near 50F
across the area. Latest MET guidance hints at upper 30s over the
western Sandhills but will hold off on going this cool with
overnight lows. To put this into context, the record low temperature
for 06/15 at Alliance Airport is 35 degrees so we`re approaching
record cold for mid-June in portions of the area should the MET pan
out.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Broad troughing remains stalled across the Hudson Bay area with
multiple mid-level perturbations expected to rotate through the
northwesterly flow across portions of central CONUS. The first of
these will arrive during the day Monday and favor our far north
central Nebraska zones. This will draw a cold front south into the
area late Monday into Tuesday. The result will be rain and
thunderstorms across South Dakota that may encroach our zones
bordering the Missouri River. NBM probabilities remain muted with
deterministics keeping activity confined to eastern South Dakota
therefore the forecast remains dry. Will see how this potential
evolves in the coming days. Warmer temperatures arrive Tuesday with
increasing thermal ridging centering across the central and southern
Rockies. Daytime highs will climb into the 80s and lower 90s by
Tuesday, with further warming to middle and upper 90s for southwest
Nebraska by Wednesday. A passing front will lead to another brief
cooldown before temperatures return to 80s and lower 90s by Friday.
The return of warmer temperatures following recent dry weather will
support increasing fire weather concerns. The extended forecast was
populated with low-end precipitation chances but probabilistic
guidance does not advocate for wetting rain potential. Given this,
PoPs may be a bit overdone with the antecedent dry conditions and
overall pattern of northwesterly flow casting considerable doubt on
overall rainfall potential through the end of next week.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Any
lingering low level clouds should clear out quickly from the area
early this afternoon, revealing generally clear skies for the bulk
of the day and evening. Winds will continue to remain gusty out of
the north northeast at 15 to 20 kts gusting up to 30 kts through the
evening. Clouds will redevelop across southwest Nebraska early
Sunday morning along with winds diminishing and backing towards the
northwest, remaining late into the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...MRS

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion