FXUS63 KLBF 202017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
317 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

The cold front continues to push eastward across eastern Nebraska
through the overnight. The main concerns this forecast period are
overnight winds and strong winds Monday, low temperatures
tonight, along with precipitation type and chances overnight.

Increased winds overnight across the southwest as winds should
remain gusty through the night into the morning as CAA will likely
mix strong winds aloft down to the surface. As for Monday, did make
some changes to the strongest wind gust location, moving the
strongest winds farther westward, with strongest winds around
highway 61 and eastward. Wind speeds up to 50kts in the 1000 mb to
700 mb layer are possible, decided to increase wind speeds at the
surface as forecaster confidence increased in the likelihood of
stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface.

As far as overnight lows are concerned, did lower temperatures a
couple degrees across western Nebraska as another cold air mass
moves into the vicinity bringing CAA which will mix the colder air
down. This then brings in the potential for a rain changing to snow
overnight across the northwest Sandhills. Any snow that does fall
overnight should remain under an inch for accumulations.

At this time fire weather concerns are low on Monday. Please see
fire weather discussion for additional details.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Another cold front will move through the area Wednesday. Temperatures
on Wednesday will be in the 50s to low 60s, highs on Thursday will
drop into the 40s. Lows on Wednesday night will be some of the
lowest we have seen so far with temperatures dropping into the
20s. There is the potential for rain on Wednesday with rain changing
to snow overnight into Thursday, however at this time the potential
for rain/snow looks to be low. Temperatures will warm back up on
Friday and Saturday with temperatures reaching the upper 50s and
60s. Another cold front moves in Saturday with lows Saturday night
in the 20s and highs Sunday in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Largely mostly cloudy skies prevail overhead and the latest
surface analysis shows a cold front positioned roughly near
Lexington to Broken Bow to Valentine. Modest west winds are
currently observed across western NEB with peak gusts 20 to 30
mph, elsewhere south winds 20-30 mph exist ahead of the cold

Generally VFR conditions are expected rest of today with mainly
middle and upper clouds expected (10 kft and greater). Sub-VFR
ceilings are expected to develop later on with conditions
deteriorating starting late today then continuing through the
evening across much of the Sandhills and northern NEB. Meanwhile,
there are increased chances for showers tonight across northern NE
and parts of the Sandhills. Of which, there is a chance for a mix
of rain and snow across northwestern NEB. Tomorrow, precip
chances exist and are contained across north central NEB.
Otherwise, ceilings improve gradually from west to east with
mostly sunny skies across western NEB. Windy conditions are
expected the next 24 hours in the wake of the aforementioned cold
front. While winds slack some overnight, gusts generally 20-30
kts, wind gusts pick up in excess of 30 kts tomorrow generally
outside the eastern Panhandle.


Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

A red flag warning was issued early today for far southwest NEB and
remains in effect until 6 PM MDT. The headline is attributable to
strong winds with peak gusts between 40-50 mph this afternoon that
will be occurring in tandem with favorable fuel conditions, after
collaborating with state and national partners, and modest humidity
between 20-25 percent. Fire weather conditions are then expected to
improve late today with increasing humidity along with winds
slacking off some. Thereafter concerns turn to tomorrow wherein
moderate-strong winds are expected primarily outside of far western
NEB. Wind gusts primarily up to 40 mph are anticipated east of
highway 61, highest across north central NEB. Fire weather
conditions are not expected to be as heightened due to afternoon
generally 25% and greater and winds not as strong.


Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ210.




NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion