296
FXUS63 KLBF 050703
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
203 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day,
increasing to scattered to widespread in the evening. Strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible with isolated strong
winds and large hail in addition to heavy rainfall the main
concerns.
- A frontal boundary will lead to expansive rain and
thunderstorm chances late Monday into early Tuesday.
- Precipitation chances diminish for the middle to end of next
week with near to above normal temperatures likely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
The main concern in the short term will be the chance for
thunderstorms on Saturday into Saturday overnight. There is less
confidence in the convection developing in the early afternoon,
however there will be decent moisture advection combined with CAPE
values around 2500 to 3000 J/kg, however, what may limit convection
in the early afternoon will be weak forcing, Shear will also be
marginal around 20 to 25 kts. If storms are able to form in the
early afternoon they will have a chance of strong winds and large
hail. Storm initiation in the afternoon will be fairly conditional.
The greater chance for thunderstorms will be late afternoon and
evening, as a trof advances in from the west. Storms will first
initiate across the Panhandle/western Nebraska. As the LLJ
strengthens in the evening, expect development to become more
numerous and potentially develop into a cluster of storms. There
will be the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail, with
damaging winds gusts being the greatest threat. There will also be
the potential for heavy rainfall as the storms form into a cluster.
PWAT values increase late Saturday night into Sunday ranging from
around 1.40 to 1.80 inches across southwest Nebraska. The area of
greatest concern for heavy rainfall will be across southwest
Nebraska, where the highest PWAT values exist.
Thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours and may linger
into Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms may develop during the
day Sunday into Sunday evening as another weak disturbance
translates across the area. Temperatures on Sunday will continue the
above normal trend with highs in the 90s. There may be some elevated
fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon across western Nebraska
as Min RH values will be around 30 to 35 percent, but winds will
be strong with sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts of
30 mph or greater.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Monday and Tuesday...upper ridging will settle over the Red River
Valley of the south with broad southwesterly flow crossing the spine
of the Rockies. Longwave troughing will lift north and east into the
northern High Plains through the day Monday with a deepening low
pressure aloft forming as the disturbance crosses into southern
Canada. A trailing cold front will settle south into the area late
Monday and stalling through the day on Tuesday. This will serve as
the focus for a couple days of increased rain and thunderstorm
potential with model blend PoPs painting definites (> 74%) Monday
evening and only slight decreases heading into early Tuesday. These
inherited PoPs seem a bit aggressive given fairly lackluster NBM QPF
probabilities where exceeding 0.25" is limited to around 20-30%. Do
anticipate some ebb and flow with this period of the mid-range
forecast as precise location of a frontal boundary at this time
scale is far from certain. Similarly, the placement of the frontal
boundary and timing of rain/thunderstorm development could play a
large role in determining daytime highs on Monday. Overall the NBM
shows little spread in Monday and Tuesday MaxT values with inner-
quartile spreads of only 4F and 5F respectively for both North
Platte and Valentine.
Wednesday and beyond...upper ridging will build west and deep
troughing tracks towards the Hudson Bay. The result will be largely
zonal flow arriving towards the middle of the next week. At the
surface, the aforementioned frontal boundary will settle south with
reinforcing high pressure returning to much of the central and
northern Plains. Moisture will largely be scoured out and large
scale lift bypassing the area. This suggests more limited
precipitation chances beyond Day 5. While the core of high pressure
aloft will be just south of the area, general westerly flow with
positive temperature anomalies nearby will maintain near to slightly
above normal temperatures through the end of the forecast period
next weekend. The latest Climate Prediction Center outlooks general
favors this idea as well with both 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day products
showing considerable warm leans.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
VFR conditions are likely for much of the period until the
threat for afternoon and evening convection arrives on Saturday.
Early on, scattered mid-level clouds will focus mainly along and
east of a LBF to VTN line. This same area could see isolated
thunderstorms in the early morning hours on Saturday but this
threat should remain well east of the TAF sites. Gusty afternoon
winds will again approach 20 to 25 knots at both terminals.
Regarding convection, confidence in how exactly storms evolve
and where they develop remains limited. This is largely due to
the influence, or lack thereof, of convection from eastern
South Dakota and whether an outflow boundary settles southwest
into the local area. Should this occur, afternoon development
will be possible, particularly near VTN. Otherwise, convection
may hold off arriving into either site until late in the period
and spilling over into the next forecast period. Will account
for these uncertainties with PROB30s for both sites including
two for VTN. Trends will be monitored through the night with
greater confidence expected by the 12z issuance.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion