306
FXUS63 KLBF 132018
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
318 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in dry conditions through the weekend.

- High confidence in hot, above normal temperatures returning
through Sunday with highs across north central approaching or
exceeding 100 degrees.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Upper level ridging extending from the west coast to the east coast
will keep strong surface high pressure in place over the central US
through the middle of the week. With warm air advection pushing a
warmer airmass across the Rockies and into the western Great Plains,
temperatures will continue their gradual warming trend. With 850 mb
temperatures in the 24 to 30 C range, expect highs to range from the
low 90s across southwest and south central Nebraska to the upper 90s
north of US-20. Overnight lows will also slowly rise, dropping into
the low to mid 60s through mid-week. Some stronger winds will also
be possible during the daytime with gusts up to 30 mph at times.
Otherwise, conditions will remain dry with clear to mostly clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remain across the region through the
weekend keeping surface high pressure over the central Plains. Dry
conditions are expected to persist with a return to much hotter
temperatures. Expect highs to rise into the mid 90s to low 100s into
the first half of the weekend. However, latest probabilities suggest
these highs may still be a few degrees too cold, especially on
Friday and Saturday. The probability of hitting 95 degrees or higher
is near 60 percent for most locations with up to a 80 percent (or
higher) probability along and north of US-20. Looking at the
potential of hitting 100 degrees of higher, there is currently 60 to
65 percent probability across northern and portions of north central
Nebraska (generally along and north of US-20) on Friday and
Saturday. Therefore, increased highs slightly for both days, which
indeed put portions of northern Holt and much of Boyd county in
triple digits. However if trends continue to increase, highs may
still be needed to increase a few more degrees warmer from what is
currently being forecasted. These forecasted highs could result in
heat indicies in the 100 to 105 degree range, potentially higher,
across portions of north central Nebraska by late week as well. If
this forecast holds, will likely need to issue some heat headlines
for late this week.

In addition, there is a strong signal that there will be some strong
winds throughout the week. Gusts up to 30 to 40 mph could easily be
achieved, with potentially higher gusts especially across the
Sandhills. While not quite warning criteria, these stronger winds
will pose a threat to fire weather concerns, returning to near-
critical by mid to end of the week.

By the end of the weekend, NBM has introduced some slight chance (20
percent) PoPs for portions of the Sandhills. Confidence is very low
in this as the majority of the models suggest a dry forecast through
early next week. However, while it`s mentioned here, would not be
surprised to see these PoPs removed in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of this week as upper level
ridging and surface high pressure remains over the region. The only
major aviation concern in the next day will some stronger south
southeast winds with gusts up to 25 knots expected through early
this evening. Across northern Nebraska, these gusts will likely
continue through Tuesday morning, with little reprieve. Further to
the south, the stronger winds this afternoon will lessen overnight
before increasing once again by late Tuesday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion