FXUS63 KLBF 051215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

The forecast focus in the short term will be windy conditions
this afternoon and colder temperatures Monday.

For today, retained a slight chc for rain or snow over the Pine
Ridge and northwest Sandhills. This indicated by the latest HRRR and
RAP as well as the 00Z GFS and NAM. Colder air will spill southward
with H85 winds from 40-45kts from the Dakotas south into NE.
Northwest winds will be strong, sustained at 25 to near 30 mph with
gusts from 35 to 45 mph. Gusts to near 50 mph possible at VTN and
ANW, supported by the 06Z HRRR. Nudged to CONSMOS for winds.
Highs upper 30s to lower 40s across the northwest should fall by
mid afternoon while the southeast manages to reach the upper 40s
and lower 50s. Far southwest Nebraska should reach the mid 50s.

Tonight...Surface high pressure as high as 1032MB builds south
into western NE. With clearing skies, nudged NBM lows colder
toward a MET/MAV blend. Lows 5 to 10 above northwest Sandhills
with mid teens elsewhere.

On Monday, dry and cold with increasing cloudiness. High near
previous forecast from the upper 20s northeast, to the mid 30s

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

The main forecast focus in the long term will be colder temperatures
Tuesday, followed by the potential for accumulating snow Thursday
night through Friday night.

Models indicated the potential for light snow from the eastern
Dakotas into northeast NE later Monday night, and retained a slight
chance across the northeastern areas.

Colder air will remain in place Tuesday, (mainly in the 30s) as a
closed upper low rotates around Hudson Bay Canada. Another weak cold
front will bring northwest winds, although nothing stronger than 10
to 20 mph expected. Can`t rule out a brief period of light snow
Tuesday night as a disturbance passes through. With moisture very
limited, the forecast is dry attm.

A slight warmup into the 40s to near 55 Wed. and Thu. as a deep
upper trough digs southward from the western Canadian Provinces into
the Intermountain west.

This upper trough will move into the region Thursday night, with the
trough axis crossing Friday night. The deterministic GFS and
ECMWF continue to generate light snow Thursday night into Friday
ahead of the upper trough axis. In addition they now show a weaker
surface low near 998mb tracking from sern CO into OK. A coupled
jet is no longer indicated, but rather a broad upper jet oriented
southwest to northeast across the region. The GFS ensemble and
ECMWF ensemble are also weaker with the system. This looks like
the best opportunity for some light snowfall not seen since Nov.
1st. The most favorable area for light snow accumulations will be
across the northwest Sandhills with lighter amounts to the south
and east. Temperatures do not look all that colder either in the
30s to near 40 both Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

Broken high level clouds are widespread across western and north
central Nebraska early this morning. As a cold front surges
southward across the area, ceilings will lower some to around 7000
FT AGL. VFR conditions are expected all areas through the period.
Gusty northwest winds of 30-35 kts (locally higher across northern
Nebraska) will develop midday today and last through early this
evening. Winds will decrease overnight.




LONG TERM...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion