288
FXUS63 KLBF 242313
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
613 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot summer conditions with heat building and high temperatures
  well into the 90s through the weekend. Highs in the upper 90s
  to near 100 across the northwest Sandhills and portions of
  southwest Nebraska through the weekend. The probability for
  highs over 100 degrees increases by Tuesday and Wednesday of
  next week.

- Increasing concerns for elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions Thursday through Saturday.

- Potential for showers/thunderstorms Friday afternoon through
  Sunday evening, but coverage looks isolated with limited
  precipitation.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Atmospheric smoke and haze continued across western and north
central Nebraska this afternoon. A weak trough of surface low
pressure extended across western South Dakota into the Nebraska
Panhandle. Winds were light and variable to light southeast.
Temperatures at 2PM CDT ranged from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Haze from smoke moving over the region from wildfires burning
in Canada and the western US will continue tonight and last
through at least Thursday morning. Guidance continues to
indicate the majority of the smoke will remain aloft, creating
milky skies and a red sunrise and sunset. An air quality alert
remains in effect for the eastern panhandle until 7pm CDT this
evening. Those who are sensitive to pollutants should monitor
themselves closely and plan to limit time outdoors.

Tonight, a few of the CAMs members generate isolated showers or
thunderstorms this evening. However with the majority of models
forecasts remaining dry due to mid level warming, will keep the
forecast dry. Lows tonight from 60 to 65.

Little change in conditions Thursday as the axis of the upper
ridge resides over the region. Highs will be about 3 to 4
degrees warmer than today. Highs near 100 expected near and west
of Highway 83. Heat index values will reach the mid 90s with a
few location upper 90s, so it will be important to stay well
hydrated, avoid being in direct sunlight during the heat of the
day, and take frequent breaks from activity in a cool location.
It will start to become breezy Thursday afternoon across the
western Sandhills where lowest afternoon humidity will fall to
15 to 20 percent. The combination of low humidity and gusty
south winds will create elevated to near critical fire
conditions.

Thursday night, a surface trough will remain near the
Nebraska/Wyoming border. This will keep a southerly wind 10 to
20 mph overnight and lows a bit warmer from 65 to 70. Humidity
recovery will only improve to 45 to 55 percent across the
northwest Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

Ensemble guidance keeps an upper ridge across the Desert
Southwest into the Great Lakes and Southeastern U.S. through
this weekend. Highs to remain in the 90s Friday through Monday.
Breezy south winds Friday and Saturday will keep elevated Fire
Weather conditions across the area. Will also see
potential for thunderstorms with little rainfall start to
increase across the west beginning Friday afternoon and
continuing further east through Sunday evening. This will
increase the potential for fire starts from lightning. Will be
monitoring behavior of fuels over the next several days to see
how much curing takes place as this significantly impacts
the potential for a a wildfire to start.

By Tuesday and Wednesday the upper ridge will strengthen across
the Southwestern U.S. into the Plains states. As this occurs,
the potential for highs to reach or exceed 100 degrees
increases. EFI/SoT guidance is showing a signal for temperatures
well above normal. The potential excessive heat and dangerously
high heat index values increases by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024

VFR will likely continue through the forecast period for
western and north central Nebraska, although upper atmospheric
smoke will result in a haze with visby as low as 5 SM at times.
Light and variable winds overnight will transition to southerly
and become breezy by midday tomorrow with gusts 20+ kts for
western and northern terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
evening for NEZ204.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Snively

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion