654
FXUS63 KLBF 231956
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
256 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening
across western and southwestern Nebraska. Though chances for
thunderstorms remains low, a few of the stronger cells pose a
risk for large hail and strong wind gusts.
- Another round of thunderstorms is expected tomorrow, with the
possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms across western
Nebraska in the evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts
remain the primary concerns.
- Thunderstorm chances persist each evening through the end of
the week, though the severe risk become less certain as the
week goes on.
- Temperatures are expected to remain below average through the
end of the week. However, temperatures are expected to return
near seasonal to above seasonal by the weekend into early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
A cold front continues to track across western and north central
Nebraska this afternoon, with a band of showers and thunderstorms
along the leading edge. The front has mostly pushed out of the
region, with thunderstorms now to the south and east of the region.
Overall, this frontal passage, as well as the earlier convection,
should limit the severe threat this evening, as more stability
builds across the region. This evening, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along eastern Wyoming and
Colorado, tracking to the southeast. The main concern for
thunderstorms and any severe weather this evening would be if one of
these storms manages to hold together as it tracks east into the
eastern Panhandle or portions of southwest Nebraska. If these storms
manage to overcome the more hostile environment, they would continue
to pose a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts, but again,
confidence is low in storms overcoming the environment in western
Nebraska.
Tomorrow, a low pressure system tracks across Colorado, bringing
another chance for showers and thunderstorms by the evening,
especially across western Nebraska. Modest instability is expected
to develop across western Nebraska, around 1,500-2,000 J/kg surface
based CAPE. Forecast sounding suggest long, straight hodographs,
with around 50 to 60 knots deep layer shear, supporting organized
convection and splitting cells. With the anticipated environment
tomorrow evening, the main severe concern remains large hail, though
potential for damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Additionally,
PWAT values in excess of 1 inch are expected, supporting heavy
rainfall with storms, especially training thunderstorms, even if the
severe risk does not fully materialize. On top of that, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to last through the night, so given the
available moisture, some areas could see some very beneficial
rainfall amounts across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Thursday, as the low across eastern Colorado continues to track
east, showers and thunderstorms are expected to last throughout the
day, continuing rainfall across the region. Although we are in a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Thursday already, the severe risk
remains low confidence. With showers and thunderstorms expected to
last most of the day, the environment may struggle to build
sufficient instability for more robust convection. However, plenty
of moisture remains across the region, with PWATs remaining over one
inch again. While the severe threat remains lower confidence at this
time, storms will bring a potential for heavy rainfall across the
region, continuing to provide beneficial rainfall.
A frontal boundary is expected to track across the region on Friday
afternoon, potentially bringing another round of thunderstorms,
particularly Friday evening. However, confidence is somewhat lower
heading into Friday for thunderstorm development as well as severe
weather potential. Questions remain on how much moisture will be
available, as well as the general environment. At this time, will
continue to keep an eye on forecast trends, especially as finer
scale features become resolved. However, those with outdoor plans on
Friday evening may want to keep up to date with the latest
forecast. However, with rain expected potentially both days,
temperatures are expected to remain on the cooler side both
days, with highs potentially in the 60s on Thursday, returning
to the 70s by Friday.
Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging begins to develop
across the region, bringing a return of at least seasonal highs, and
some suggestion of above seasonal highs by Sunday. As a reminder,
seasonal highs this time of year are around 86 to 87 degrees. The
latest forecast guidance continues to suggest highs in the mid to
upper 80s, with a few areas now showing greater potential for the
lower 90s, especially by Sunday. Probabilistic guidance suggests
nearly a 100 percent chance of exceeding 80 degrees by Sunday for
the entire region, with greatest potential to break 90 across
southwest Nebraska. While the European and GEFS ensembles are in
agreement on breaking 80, there is some disagreement on breaking 90.
In this case, the European ensemble trends to the cooler
temperatures, with only a 40 to 50 percent chance of breaking 90,
while the GEFS brings an 80 to 90 percent chance. Confidence in
highs this weekend should continue to increase as the upper level
pattern becomes more resolved. This pattern remains in place into
early next week as well. While the days are generally expected to
remain dry, there is potential for showers and thunderstorms late
evening into the overnight hours most of these days, especially
areas across northern Nebraska.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
A cold front is tracking across western and central Nebraska, with
an expanse of stratus in its wake. Expecting that cloud cover
remains around area terminals this afternoon, with low end VFR and
brief MVFR ceilings. Cloud cover is expected to persist across
southwest Nebraska, with potential for fog development overnight,
given available moisture and light, variable winds. By mid morning,
expecting any fog will burn off, with lower clouds remaining into
the afternoon. Further north, skies are expected to clear out
overnight, with development of fair weather cumulus by mid
morning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion