982
FXUS63 KLBF 120710
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
210 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to warm this week, with heat by mid to
  late week above average across the region. Highs by late week
  are expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Gusty winds this week combined with the hot and dry conditions
  may bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions, especially across the Sandhills and Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today and tonight, an upper level ridge currently centered over
southern Wyoming will lift into central Wyoming and northwest South
Dakota by early this evening. Surface high pressure across the
southern Great Lakes into Iowa and Missouri, and low pressure over
the central Rockies will bring south southeasterly winds across the
area today from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph across the
western Sandhills. Highs today from the upper 90s far northwest
Sandhills, 90 to 95 remainder of north central, and 90 to low 90s
southwest. While highs will be very warm in the 90s, they are only
about 3 to 8 degrees above normal, except near 10 above normal
Gordon and Rushville. Much hotter temperatures above 100 will be to
our north and west (WY, MT and western Dakotas). Skies will be sunny
across the area today. Tonight, a light south wind 5 to 15 mph with
lows in the mid 60s and clear skies.

Monday and Monday night, the upper ridge center will strengthen to
near 6000 meters at 500mb across eastern SD into MN. Despite such as
strong upper ridge to our north, highs across western NE will be
nearly the same, in the low to mid 90s, with highs again in the
upper 90s far northwest Sandhills. H85 temperature anomalies are
slightly below normal across Kansas and Missouri today and Monday,
so when advecting north into Nebraska, this is attributing to highs
not being as hot. Southerly winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph
across the entire forecast area with gusts to 30 mph portions of the
central Sandhills/north central. Skies will again be sunny. Lows
Monday night mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Upper level ridging is expected to persist the rest of the week,
keeping western and north central Nebraska in a warm, dry pattern.
The warmest temperatures aloft are expected to continue to stream
over the Intermountain West and Dakotas, which will bring very warm
temperatures aloft across western and north central Nebraska as
well. With this occurring, heat will continue to build this week,
with the hottest temperatures expected by late week, where highs are
most likely to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s across a large
portion of the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday, guidance continues to suggest 850 mb
temperature anomalies around 3 to 5 degC warmer than usual, with the
warmer temperatures expected across northern Nebraska. This is in
line with the latest forecast highs, suggesting lower to mid 90s
basically Highway 2 and south, with highs in the mid to upper 90s
north of Highway 2. While this is warmer than usual, these highs
continue to remain between the 75th and 90th percentile compared to
local climatology, so not too unusual for mid July. In fact, when
compared to climatology, highs are only 5 to 10 degrees above
normal, and the highs around 10 degrees above normal are mostly
contained to the Highway 20 corridor. Still, given the prolonged
period of heat this week, folks should take precaution, especially
if sensitive to heat or working outdoors.

Thursday into the weekend, expect temperatures to get even warmer.
By late week, 850 mb temperature anomalies around 5 to 8 degC above
normal are expected, bringing surface highs around 10 to 15 degF
above normal across most of the region. While guidance the last few
days was suggesting potential for a late week ridge breakdown,
newest guidance suggests the ridge amplifies late week, keeping hot
conditions around into the weekend and continuing to limit any
precipitation chances. With this extra push of heat, Thursday onward
will bring our greatest chances of breaking 100 degrees this week,
with the latest forecast bringing highs in the upper 90s to lower
100s across most of the region. This remains better reflected in
GEFS ensemble guidance, as the European ensembles continue to favor
cooler temperatures which seem less likely given the strength of the
ridge and anomalous temperatures aloft. Given the latest forecast,
thinking that if any heat headlines are needed this week, it will
most likely be late week, but will continue to closely monitor how
highs play out this week.

In addition to the heat, will also be keeping a close eye on the
growing potential for fire weather concerns as the week progresses.
With higher than average temperatures and no precipitation expected
for several days, this could aid in quickly drying out any recent
moisture. Also, with the strong heating, expecting fairly strong
mixing in the environment, allowing stronger winds aloft to mix to
the surface. Conditions look to remain quite gusty Tuesday onward,
where afternoon wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are possible each day,
especially across the Sandhills, with more widespread gusts of 25 to
30 mph possible. As heat builds in and relative humidity lowers,
this could bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions, especially later in the week after several days of this
pattern. Will continue to be closely monitoring this situation
throughout the next several forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska overnight and through the day. Overnight, mostly
southerly winds are expected, though stronger winds aloft do bring a
LLWS concern across the Panhandle and portions of north central
Nebraska, including the KVTN terminal. By the morning, as better
mixing develops across the region, expecting gusty wind conditions
to develop across the Panhandle and Sandhills, spreading east.
Southerly gusts up to 25 knots may be expected this afternoon, with
gusts subsiding after sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion