000
FXUS63 KLBF 252037
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

An anomalous upper low currently sits over OK with strong
moisture advection ongoing ahead of this feature in the
southeastern U.S. where thunderstorm activity is increasing.
Further north, a large area of rain was located in the mid level
WAA on the eastern side of the low. In the west, upper heights
were building across the Rockies which puts western and north
central NE in the middle of the two main features, with sunshine
prevalent in the west but clouds remaining in the north central.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Short term main points: Warming and drier conditions are expected
through the end of the workweek.

After drifting north through the day, the aforementioned upper low
will become cutoff from the larger scale flow and be left to meander
with movement becoming more tied to the atmospheric adjustments
caused by larger convective systems over the next couple days.
Meanwhile the western 2/3rds of NE will come under the influence of
the building upper ridge to the west resulting in large scale
subsidence and warming temperatures.

For tonight, clearing skies and winds decreasing will be the main
story. Lows will drop to slightly below average for this time of
year in the lower 40s.

For Thursday, with the upper ridge building in and large scale
subsidence taking over most areas, mainly sunny skies will be
anticipated. This will allow for a rapid warmup of temps returning
back to at or slightly above average in the upper 70s to lower 80s
under dry conditions. The exception to this will be the far north
central areas east of highway 183 as there could still be a bit more
cloud cover thanks to the slow movement of the upper low mentioned
previously, now expected to be located over southern MO. In this
area, afternoon cumulus development could still be possible, and
temps being held down somewhat in the low to mid 70s. Dry conditions
prevail however. Winds will become southerly Thursday night and
continue to signal the beginning of warm air advection into
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Long term main points: A more active pattern will develop through
the weekend into the Memorial Day holiday. Those with outdoor
plans are encouraged to stay up to date with the latest forecast
as potential for strong to severe storms increases by Saturday.

A mainly dry day is expected Friday as the upper ridge axis becomes
positively tilted and located across the northern Plains states. Low
pressure aloft will develop across the PacNW as this occurs and this
low will become the larger weather story for the weekend. As
mentioned, with WAA on southerly winds increasing temps continue to
warm to above average to the upper 80s to around 90 most places.
With zonal flow developing over the northern Plains surface
pressures will lower in the northern High Plains which will alow a
further increase in southerly winds through the day Friday, so a
breezy day is in store. The trajectory for best low level moisture
will favor the eastern half of the state, but with the lack of a
well developed surface boundary only high based convection will be a
low threat across north central NE - but confidence in that is low.
The exception will be in the eastern Panhandle and far southwest NE
where stronger mixing will promote lower relative humidities and
with the stronger wind speeds will yield an elevated to near
critical fire weather setup by late Friday afternoon.

Instead, the low level moisture return and better upper level
dynamics continues to show Saturday as having a better setup for
thunderstorm development and is therefore a higher confidence
forecast, at least for portions of north central NE. Southwesterly
flow aloft will allow for good downsloping conditions over
western KS and into far southwest NE which will shift winds to the
west and set the stage for a dryline surge over southwest NE.
Instability and CAPE east of the dryline will be maximized and in
the presence of decent deep layer shear at least isolated
strong to severe convection should develop. With deep layer shear
oriented orthogonal to the dryline any development should stay
discrete initially before growing upscale. Confidence in coverage
area is not that high yet as convection from Friday will likely
dictate where boundaries ultimately set up. At any rate strong
sunshine and a breezy day is once again favored with temps similar
to Friday.

For Sunday into mid next week, the active pattern will continue
to favor the Plains as the anomalous upper low settles into the
western States by Monday while a very strong and anomalous upper
high will become centered over the Ohio valley into the southeast.
This will put the track of bets upper level flow from eastern CO
into MN. As is typically the case in the warm season, boundary
location will be key to subsequent thunderstorm development so
confidence in any one location is low at this time. However, more
confidence exists in a more active weather pattern and with
residual cloud cover and potential preciptation, temperatures are
favored to remain slightly cooler than average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Lower ceilings will continue to lead to MVFR conditions in parts
of north central Nebraska through the mid-afternoon. Afterwards,
VFR conditions can be expected across western and north central
Nebraska. Gusty northerly winds will exist this afternoon for most
of the Panhandle and southwest and central Nebraska, decreasing
in the evening. Winds will remain light out of the north and
northwest for the rest of the night and into tomorrow morning.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Stoppkotte
SHORT TERM...Stoppkotte
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
AVIATION...Meltzer

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion