FXUS63 KLBF 181732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Focus in the short term will be precipitation chances tonight and
tomorrow night.

Today, Nebraska will be left in the wake of a passing low pressure
system and exiting cool front moving off to the ESE. Through the
day, an area of low pressure will deepen over central to eastern WY.
Though the system will be weak, a frontal boundary draped across
eastern CO, will attempt to kick off showers tonight. However,
most of the forcing looks to stay in NE Colorado. Additionally,
moisture across the Sandhills isn`t very impressive. PWATs reach
~0.75" at best, and sfc dwpts are in the upper 50s at their
highest. Lastly, CAMs look to be at odds for where and when precip
will be. So, based PoPs off the latest RAP and NAMNEST
runs...leaving a SCHC in the panhandle, where the best chance will

The chance for precip will return again tomorrow afternoon and
evening as a warm front looks to push through in earnest. There will
be ample moisture as southerly flow advects in more moisture, with
PWATs up to an inch or so by Sat PM. As such, expecting a chance for
showers/t-storms, starting in north central Neb in the afternoon,
and chances spreading over the area during the evening. As for
severe chances, as a whole instability looks to be lacking. The most
impressive item is that there looks to be near 40-50 kts of 0-6km
bulk shear. As such, expecting strong winds to be the main threat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

The long term begins Saturday overnight with low pressure centered
over Montana, moving southeastward. This system will trek through
Nebraska throughout the day Sunday and as it does, it will drag a
cold front through. ATM, PWATs look to range around an inch or more
Sunday, which is sufficient moisture for precip. Yet, it looks as if
the majority of the moisture will remain in eastern Nebraska. As
such, not expecting large QPF`s with this system. For now, given the
lift provided by the cold front, and decent moisture, left chance
PoPs for late Sunday night into Monday AM.

As the front moves out Monday, there is decent CAA at H850 in its
wake. H85 temperatures drop 10 to 15C from Sunday into Monday with
the bulk of the cooler air being advected into Western Neb. This
will translate into much cooler surface temps than have been seen of
late. Forecast highs ATTM are in the upper 60s to lower 70s for
Monday afternoon which is 10 to 15 degrees below climo. Also behind
the front, ridging will build in, with a high pressure system coming
down from British Columbia and moving SE across the CONUS. This will
dominate the weather pattern and leave the area dry through
Thursday. Thursday will be the next chance for precip as low
pressure works its way back in, though confidence is low ATTM. As
such, left pops at a SCHC.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period. There is an isolated threat for thunderstorms this evening
across southwest Nebraska, but looks to remain west of KLBF
terminal, but and isolated thunderstorm could impact KIML
terminal this afternoon. Winds become light overnight into
Saturday morning mainly out of the north.




SHORT TERM...Sinclair
LONG TERM...Sinclair

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion