321
FXUS63 KLBF 211925
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
225 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with a slight risk of
strong to severe thunderstorms, across the Sandhills and
western NE
- Another round of thunderstorms expected Monday afternoon and evening
with a slight risk of strong to severe storms
- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
through much of next week as an active northwest flow pattern
persists
- Moderate confidence in mild temperatures through this upcoming
week
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances
both this afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon and
evening. As the trof advances eastward this afternoon will see
thunderstorm development. Expect there to be two areas of
thunderstorm development, the first will be thunderstorms that
develop off the Black Hills and move southeastward into northern
Nebraska, storm mode for this area will generally be clusters
of supercells.
The secondary area of thunderstorm development will be across
western Nebraska into the Panhandle. The environment across
western Nebraska will be favorable for thunderstorm development
in the warm sector as temperatures reach the 70s. Dew points
will be in the low to mid 60s and MLCAPE values will be around
1500 to 2000 J/kg. This area has the better potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms as it is located in the better
environment. Storms across this area would generally expect to
be discrete supercells, with hodographs suggesting the chance
of splitting supercells as well. The main hazards with these
storms will be large hail, with a secondary threat of damaging
wind gusts. There is a low chance of a tornado threat, generally
across portions of southern western Nebraska into the west
central Sandhills. The threat for severe potential will
generally subside by late evening, however there may be ongoing
convection through midnight, but it is expected to remain below
severe limits.
For Monday, Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is
expected in the afternoon and evening. A SW trof will move in from
the west and will be the focus for thunderstorm development. With
storms on Monday, the area of greatest threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms is a narrow corridor, generally west of HWY 61 where
the better environment will exist. MU CAPE values will
generally be around 1000 to near 1500 J/kg, while east of HWY 61
CAPE values will only be around 500 J/kg or less. This area
will also have shear values around 45 to 50 kts as well. The
main hazards will once again be large hail and damaging wind,
however at this time the setup is conditional with lower
confidence in how much strong to severe thunderstorm development
there will be.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
An active weather pattern is expected to persist through much of
this upcoming week as northwest flow aloft remains established over
the region. This pattern will support periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms through the middle and latter portions of the week
as embedded disturbances move southeast through the flow. Severe
weather potential remains uncertain at this time. However, the
overall is supportive of occasional severe weather threats, with the
magnitude of any threat likely dependent on the evolution of the
preceding convection and the placement of any mesoscale boundaries.
In addition to the severe weather potential, locally heavy rainfall
may accompany stronger thunderstorms. While widespread heavy
rainfall is not expected, repeated thunderstorm activity could lead
to localized flooding concerns, particularly across portions of north-
central Nebraska where multiple rounds of precipitation may occur.
Heading into the weekend, upper-level flow is forecast to become
westerly to southwesterly as the pattern begins to evolve. This
should allow deeper low-level moisture to return to the region.
While considerable uncertain remains, the combination of increasing
moisture, instability, and stronger mid-level flow could support a
greater severe weather potential heading into next weekend across
the area. This active pattern will continue to be monitored over the
next few days.
Temperatures are expected to remain on the cooler side through much
of next week due to periodic precipitation chances and persistent
cloud cover. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 50s. By
next weekend, a warming trend is expected to develop as warm air
advection strengthens ahead of the next storm system. High
temperatures may climb into the mid to upper 80s, and if stronger
warming materializes, some areas could approach 90 degrees.&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Isolated storms will be possible early this afternoon across
north central Nebraska, including KVTN terminal. Then additional
isolated thunderstorms will develop across southwest Nebraska
and could potentially impact KLBF terminal mid afternoon through
early evening. Storms could have gusty, erratic winds, hail and
brief heavy rainfall that could impact visibility. There will
also be a chance for additional showers and thunderstorms late
this evening into the overnight. Winds may be breezy across the
northern Sandhills today around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts
out of the east. Elsewhere, winds should remain light out of the
east to northeast around 5 to 10 kts. Overnight winds will
become light under 10 kts, at times, light and variable, then
turn southeast Monday morning around 5 to 10 kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Gomez
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion