768
FXUS63 KLBF 071154
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
654 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a stationary
  frontal boundary this afternoon and evening, bringing rain
  chances overnight. A few of the stronger cells may pose a risk
  for large hail, strong winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through the night and potentially
  into early Tuesday afternoon east of Highway 83. The main
  concern will be locally heavy rainfall, especially for storms
  training over the same area.

- Cooler temperatures around the middle of the week will quickly
  give way to above normal values by week`s end with increasing
  rain chances for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A low pressure system is tracking into the western Dakotas this
morning, and is expected to slowly track east throughout the day.
This should keep a nearly stationary boundary across central
Nebraska, with a cold front tracking across Wyoming and Colorado
throughout the day. Through the morning and early afternoon, expect
to see some stronger winds and gusty conditions out of the south.
Southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected, with gusts up to 30
mph, with the windiest conditions generally riding along the
stationary front. Highs will also remain warm throughout the day,
with highs pushing into the 90s across the entire region. This
remains well warmer than normal, as we typically see highs of 83 to
84 for Labor Day across western and north central Nebraska.

With the stationary front remaining across central Nebraska, expect
a fairly strong moisture gradient to set up across the region.
Dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 50s across the
Panhandle, with dewpoints in the upper 60s, and potentially lower
70s, across north central Nebraska. By mid afternoon, a weaker
surface boundary is expected to track east, increasing surface
convergence across north central Nebraska. This should allow for
convective initiation along the boundary, with thunderstorms
expected to last into the night. While the main upper level speed
max is expected to track over western Nebraska, there should still
be sufficient deep layer shear to support some organized convection
along the boundary. Also noteworthy is the currently forecast high
PWAT values. As storms initiate late afternoon into the evening,
expect a few of the stronger storms could produce some large hail
and severe wind gusts, as well as bring the risk for locally heavy
rainfall. The main area of concern will be along and east of Highway
83, which is where the frontal boundary is expected to remain
through the day.

Late evening into the overnight hours, a low level jet is expected
to develop and when it collides with the stationary front, it should
keep showers and thunderstorms rolling through the night. Overnight,
the main threat with these thunderstorms should remain locally heavy
rainfall, especially if storms continue to train over the same
locations. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
into Tuesday morning.

By Tuesday afternoon, the cold front across Wyoming and Colorado
should push east across the region, potentially kicking up one more
round of showers and thunderstorms on the eastern most fringes of
the North Platte CWA. Expecting that this will mostly be early in
the afternoon, and given the overnight into the morning rain, very
little instability should redevelop across the region. This should
help limit the severe weather threat Tuesday afternoon, though still
cannot rule out the potential for locally heavy rainfall. With the
current timing of the front, expect that most of the rain showers
should be out of the region by mid afternoon.

A shortwave tracks across the region Tuesday night, spinning up a
secondary surface low in northeastern Colorado, which is expected to
quickly track east. As this low deepens, expect a quick shot of rain
will be possible across portions of western Nebraska and the
Sandhills. However, this is expected to be fairly weakly forced,
leaving a more scattered nature. Latest guidance is not overly
optimistic on this bringing wetting rainfall, and mostly suggests a
few hundredths up to one tenth of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

General zonal flow will prevail by midweek across much of CONUS as
broad upper ridging resides across the south and enhanced mid-level
flow from a deep trough tracks along the US/Canadian border. In
time, upper ridging will retrograde and settle over the Desert
Southwest and may introduce some subtle northwesterly flow late
week. Departing frontal boundary from Monday/Tuesday will quell
northward advance of richer low-level moisture for a few days and
this will coincide with high pressure in the region. Cooler
temperatures will result with NBM inner quartile values falling to
the lower 80s by Wednesday with a steady increase towards Friday.
Precipitation chances will be sparse in this time frame with
ensembles fairly pessimistic on wetting rains anywhere in the
region. Deeper troughing will move onshore the Pacific Northwest
sometime over the weekend. This feature will dig south towards the
Great Basin before crossing the central/northern Rockies sometime
early next week. In the lead up to this, southwesterly flow will
become established again and will lead to an increase in atmospheric
moisture with PWATs advertised to exceed 140% of normal. This
suggests a cloudy and cooler period with greater rain potential. NBM
ensemble spreads highlight this well with inner-quartile values
showing increasing spread through the weekend towards Monday where
values at North Platte reaches 21F. QPF probabilities show similar
increases though fall short of high confidence with only 33%, 35%,
and 23% probabilities for seeing > 0.10" rainfall each day Saturday,
Sunday, and Monday respectively. So even though rain chances
increase towards the end of the period, confidence in truly
beneficial rainfall remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Low cloud cover across northern Nebraska will gradually improve
through the morning with VFR conditions returning to area
terminals. Gusty south winds will develop with peak speeds
around 25 knots. Later today, thunderstorms will develop along a
surface trough, approaching frontal boundary. This activity will
favor south of KVTN but should bring impacts to KLBF. Have
covered with a TEMPO group for now given isolated to widely
scattered coverage. Even should direct impacts occur, conditions
should largely favor low-end VFR if not marginal MVFR
CIGs/visibility for brief periods. Activity should depart by
late tonight leaving area terminals dry the remainder of the
period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion