FXUS63 KLBF 160919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
419 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

The main forecast concern will be snowfall amounts through today
with winter weather advisories in effect.

The latest surface analysis showed surface low pressure across New
Mexico as surface high pressure extending across much of the
Northern Plains including Wyoming into Nebraska. Isentropic upglide
will continue to operate overnight and into today especially in the
300K and 305K layers. In the lower 290K and 295K layers, downglide
will kick in by 12Z. However, the the atmosphere remaining fairly
saturated, accumulating snow is expected to continue through about

The weak closed H5 low is currently centered over northeast CO
near Akron, and is forecast to move across southern NE today. as
snow As snow diminishes across the southeast Panhandle into
southwest Nebraska this morning, a weak deformation zone will
develop to the north and east of the H5 low across central NE into
the central Sandhills. This will provide accumulating snow to the
Highway 2 corridor and eastern portions of the advisory including
Blaine and Custer County. With H85 temperatures remaining from
-2C to -3C through the day today, a wet snow will continue.
Snowfall rates should be fairly low around a 1/4 inch per hour.
Accumulation will become more difficult this afternoon due to the
sun angle and surface temperatures reaching the mid to upper 30s.
The Winter Storm Warnings across western areas were downgraded to
Winter Weather Advisories for today, with remaining Winter Weather
Advisories to remain in effect. Additional snowfall amounts
across the advisory area will mainly range from 1 to 3 inches with
locally 4 inches.

This system will move across the Mid Missouri Valley this evening,
followed by a northern stream trough dropping into north central
NE overnight. Southwest NE forecast to remain dry tonight, with a
slight chance for light snow across the western and central
Sandhills this evening, and up to a 40 percent chance rain or snow
in the east. Still a slight chance for light snow after midnight
across the north and east.

On Saturday, the northern stream trough will drop south through
western NE. Do not current have POPs supportive of any rain
showers. However, fairly steep mid level lapse rates could aid in
isolated development. Highs expected to reach the mid to upper 40s
and a mostly cloudy morning with clearing into the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

A large upper level trough across southern Canada and low
centered over Hudson Bay will drop south into the Northern Plains
on Sunday. This will drove a cold front into central SD by late
afternoon. Across western NE, a nice warmup into the low 60s with
a breezy west to northwest wind. Models show the cold front and
upper trough dropping south Sunday night and Monday with a chance
for rain or snow. Highs Monday colder at around 40. Moisture
looks light at this point. A gradual warming trend Tuesday through
Friday with just a slight chance for rain Thursday into Thursday
night as a system lift up from the Southern Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021

Precipitation continues to fill in across much of western
Nebraska, including the LBF terminal. A fairly narrow snowband is
developing near to slightly north of the terminal and should move
through fairly quickly in the period allowing visibility to
increase back to at least MVFR criteria. Rain/snow showers will be
persistent through the morning hours and cannot rule out
additional periods of IFR conditions before conditions begin to
improve during the daytime Friday as main focus of lift shifts
east. As for VTN, expecting a slower start with precipitation with
the bulk of any accumulations remaining west and south of the
terminal. Period of greatest intensity appears to be late morning
through afternoon on Friday, however, expecting snow intensity to
be lower and flight conditions to be largely dominated by ceiling
height degradations.


Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening
for NEZ004-022>026-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.



LONG TERM...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion