209
FXUS63 KLBF 072317
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible overnight into
  early Saturday morning across the region. The main concerns
  would be isolated large hail and gusty winds.

- Temperatures continue to warm this weekend, bringing warmer
  than usual temperatures across the region into early next
  week. By mid week, expecting a shift to cooler temperatures
  through the end of the week.

- Along with warmer temperatures, elevated to near critical fire
  weather concerns are possible this weekend into early next
  week, with wind being the main limiting factor.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An upper level high is observed over the Four Corners region, with
upper level ridging across the Pacific Northwest and a subtle upper
level trough across the Northern Plains. This set up brings mostly
northwest flow aloft across western and north central Nebraska. At
the surface, a cold front continues to track south across Nebraska
this afternoon, tracking towards a low pressure system across north
central Kansas. Behind the front, clear skies are observed, with
winds out of the north and northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

As the cold front continues to track through the region this
afternoon and evening, expect that fairly benign weather will
persist. Dewpoints mostly remain in the upper 50s to 60s across the
region, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 60s. As the
boundary layer decouples this evening, expecting that a pocket of
CAPE aloft will remain across the region overnight. Throughout the
late night hours, a low level jet begins to develop and intensify
slightly across the region, which is expected to provide a forcing
mechanism for overnight convection. Given the elevated pocket of
CAPE and low level jet forcing, expecting that any convection that
develops will also remain elevated. Given the rather nebulous
forcing from the low level jet, confidence remains low in where
storms are expected to develop. With this in mind, have generally
limited PoPs to slight chance through the overnight hours into early
Saturday morning, and went slightly more expansive in areal
coverage. With decent instability aloft, there is potential that a
few of the stronger thunderstorms could pose a risk for isolated
large hail, and cannot completely rule out a risk for strong, gusty
and erratic winds. For what it`s worth, SPC does have portions of
north central Nebraska included in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
for severe thunderstorms overnight, with the entire forecast area in
a Marginal Risk for Saturday morning. However, uncertainty in where
and when storms develop remains high, as well as uncertainty in how
long storms may persist, given that a strong cap is expected to
develop throughout the day Saturday. At the very least, make sure to
stay weather aware, especially if you have outdoor or travel plans
early Saturday morning, potentially into the early afternoon.

As mentioned above, a strong cap is expected to develop across the
region Saturday, as upper level warm air advection tracks into and
across the region. This is especially expected across western
portions of the region, generally west of Highway 83. As warmer 850
mb temperatures track into the region, creating the aforementioned
cap, expect that surface temperatures will steadily climb into the
mid to upper 90s. This pushes temperatures generally right around
the 90th percentile compared to local climatology, but is expected
to remain below record level. For what it`s worth, record highs this
weekend range from 105 to 108, and expecting that we remain well
below those temperatures. In fact, even our expected heat index
values generally remain less than 100, though a few spots may
briefly see a heat index break into the lower 100s across far
southwest Nebraska. This heat is expected to stick around on Sunday,
as well, with highs again pushing into the 90s, though chances are
slightly better for breaking into the lower 100s across southwest
Nebraska Sunday afternoon. However, even with these warmer
temperatures, do not anticipate the need for any heat headlines this
weekend. Still, caution should be taken for those who are sensitive
to heat and those who work outdoors.

With the return of hot conditions, expect to also see at least
elevated to near critical fire weather concerns, especially across
portions of western Nebraska. Throughout the weekend, expecting that
afternoon humidity values drop below 20 percent, potentially as low
as 15 percent for areas mainly along and west of Highway 61. This
portion of the state remains in severe to extreme drought based off
the latest drought monitor, with hot and dry conditions not likely
to help. The main limiting factor in fire weather concerns this
weekend will be winds. Saturday, may see stronger southerly winds of
15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph, but this is generally expected
to remain east of the lowest humidity (mainly associated with
stronger mixing along the low level jet). Sunday, more easterly
winds are expected, with pockets of gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Should
also see fairly strong humidity recovery overnight, generally
between 75 to 90 percent. At this time, not anticipating Red Flag
conditions, but still caution should be taken with any flame or
spark producing sources, as any new fire starts may still easily
grow and spread this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Upper level ridging is expected to remain across the region through
most of the week, with the main upper level jet remaining just to
the north across the Dakotas. Even though ridging is expected to
persist, several shortwaves are expected to track through the flow,
potentially bringing rain chances throughout the week. Aiding these
precipitation chances is the suggestion of a tongue of deeper
moisture aloft tracking into the region. With this expecting push of
moisture, ensemble guidance is actually fairly optimistic on
measureable rainfall across the region, generally bringing at least
a 40 percent chance of light rain Monday onward. However, this is
generally expected to remain light, as ensembles still show lower
chance on amounts exceeding one tenth of an inch, which generally
only shows a 20 to 30 percent chance, with chances increasing later
in the week. While the precipitation potential certainly seems to be
trending up, will still keep an eye on this, as it may be fairly
light regardless of chances and the potential push of moisture.

While precipitation remains uncertain, there is a stronger signal
regarding temperature trends next week. Expecting that the heat this
weekend will last into at least Monday, where again highs may climb
into the mid to upper 90s, with a few locations across southwest
Nebraska potentially breaking 100. With these hot temperatures
persisting, may still see some additional elevated to near critical
fire weather concerns across western Nebraska. Keeping this threat
somewhat limited is an expected push of better humidity during the
afternoon hours, though conditions may still get gusty Monday and
Tuesday. However, from there, expect a cooling trend to begin, with
cooling beginning in earnest by mid week. In fact, expecting highs
to reach the 80s by Wednesday, with potential for highs in the 70s
to close out the week. Still a bit of uncertainty in this happening,
but the high temperature forecast is trending cooler. For reference,
typical highs for mid August are around 87 to 89 degrees. These
forecast highs in the 70s would be nearly 15 degrees cooler than
average and generally in the 10th percentile for our local
climatology, so not completely unfeasible but rather unusual. While
the precise temperatures are still uncertain, do feel that
confidence in a pattern shift is relatively medium to high.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through tomorrow evening across western and north central
Nebraska. Early tomorrow morning, scattered thunderstorms are
possible across portions of the Sandhills and central Nebraska.
These storms will pose a threat for brief MVFR CIGs/visibilities
and gusty, erratic winds before they move east by early
afternoon.

Winds gradually shift from east to south tonight, at 10 to
15kts. Southerly winds then strengthen tomorrow afternoon, with
gusts of 20 to 30kts expected for all terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Richie
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion