011
FXUS63 KLBF 021156
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
556 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Precipitation chances increase today and persist into tomorrow,
with the greatest accumulations (0.10-0.25") across western
Nebraska.
- A wintry mix is possible both early this morning and again on
Tuesday morning, though little to no snow and ice accumulations are
expected at this time. Patchy dense fog is also possible Tuesday
morning.
- High confidence in above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.
- Moderate confidence in track of a late week system which has the
potential to bring rain/snow to much of the region.
- Low to moderate confidence in thunderstorm potential on Thursday
evening.
- Moderate confidence in a dry weekend with above normal
temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 257 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026
Currently, temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s to low 30s
under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Increasing moisture advection
is noted across portions of central and north central Nebraska, as
low stratus is overspreading areas near and east of HWY 83.
For today, expect light precipitation to overspread portions of
northern Nebraska through early this afternoon. This is in
response to increasing isentropic ascent, as the broad warm
advection regime persists amid deepening surface low pressure
across eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings suggest a very brief
threat for a mix of rain and snow at the onset of
precipitation, before quickly becoming all rain as temperatures
warm this afternoon. No snow accumulations are expected this
morning. This initial round of light rain will quickly lift
north into South Dakota this afternoon, with a brief return of
dry conditions to the area. Clouds erode from west to east this
afternoon, with the sun returning to areas west of HWY 83 for a
few hours this afternoon. This helps to boost temperatures
across western Nebraska, with highs today ranging from the
middle 50s in north central Nebraska to the low 60s west of HWY
61.
By tonight, an upper low will eject east out of the Rockies and into
the central Plains through the day tomorrow. The aforementioned
surface low will eject southeast through Colorado, reaching the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles by late tomorrow morning. As this low
departs to the south, a cold front will quickly move through the
area from north to south, exiting early tomorrow morning. As
the mid- level low passes nearly overhead tomorrow morning and
afternoon, modestly increasing cold advection aloft will
constrict the thermal gradient with time. This increased area of
FGEN will lead to precipitation overspreading northern and
western Nebraska again late tomorrow morning. Again,
thermodynamic profiles look to largely support an all rain
p-type, though snow may briefly mix in during the morning hours.
Further southeast, fog is expected to overspread much of
southwest and central Nebraska late tonight and into much of the
morning hours tomorrow. This fog may be dense, and trends will
need to be monitored for future dense fog headlines. A look at
forecast soundings suggest a deep enough moist layer and just
enough ascent to support a threat for drizzle as well, and this
will need to be monitored very closely. Temperatures just a few
degrees colder than forecast would bring a threat for freezing
drizzle tomorrow morning to much of the area, and would lead to
impacts to area roads. As of now, there appears to be enough of
a consensus keeping temperatures in the middle 30s as this
fog/drizzle occurs, and should keep any freezing precipitation
threat nil. Trends will need to be monitored closely, though the
window for any ice accretions should be limited to early
tomorrow morning.
Light rain persists into tomorrow afternoon, slowly spreading south
and east with time as the system continues to move off to the
southeast. The greatest coverage looks to be across western Nebraska
tomorrow afternoon, and this is where amounts look to be greatest
(0.10-0.25") at this time. Rain begins to exit the area tomorrow
night, with dry conditions returning for all early Wednesday
morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026
Weak upper level ridging returns on Wednesday behind the departing
low keeping conditions dry through Thursday. Highs will return to
the upper 50s to upper 60s (even into the low 70s in some locations)
on both Wednesday and Thursday.
The next developing upper level low arrives Thursday evening lasting
into Saturday morning. As the low deepens and pushes through
Nebraska, much of the region could see widespread rain/snow,
however, precip type remains a concern with the majority of the
region seeing rain. Areas across the Pine Ridge will remain cooler
and could see some rain/snow mix or all snow even during the day on
Friday. The return of precipitation and developing low will bring in
cooler air once again for the end of the week with highs dropping
back into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Friday.
There is also a potential for some convection on Thursday evening.
Current guidance suggests there will be marginal instability around
by late afternoon into the evening which will support some
thunderstorm development. While not anticipating severe storms at
this time, there could be enough support for some stronger storms
across the Sandhills and into portions of north central Nebraska.
Currently thinking that the main threats will be gusty winds up to
55 mph, although some small hail may be possible as well, especially
in the stronger storms. Will continue to monitor this over the next
few days.
Precipitation comes to an end by early Saturday morning (around or
shortly after Midnight). A return to drier conditions along with
milder temperatures continues through the weekend. Thanks to a surge
of warm air advection into the central Plains, expect highs to
quickly rebound back into the mid 50s to low 60s on Saturday with
widespread 60s on Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026
Some lower clouds or light fog will be possible across portions of
southwest Nebraska through this morning before improving after
sunrise. Northern Nebraska could see some stronger south
southeasterly wind gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Otherwise,
precipitation should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday. Confidence
remains low in widespread rain across either terminal before 12Z and
therefore have been left out of the going forecast at this time.
However, confidence remains high in patchy dense fog across
southwest and central Nebraska early Tuesday morning. Visibility
restrictions down to 2 miles, potentially down to 1 mile or less,
will be possible at times.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion