560
FXUS63 KLBF 032319
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer weather is expected much of the upcoming week
  with negligible (< 10%) measurable rainfall anywhere in the
  local area.

- Stronger winds are possible on Monday with gusts in the 35-40
  mph range for portions of western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

This afternoon, gusty north winds were expanding across much of
western Nebraska as a frontal boundary settles south. Winds peaked
immediately following passage where gusts neared 40 to 45 mph but
have since fallen off closer to 25 to 30 mph. Ample dry air in the
region was preventing much in the way of cloud cover, much less
precipitation from this feature. Skies remained sunny to mostly
sunny and afternoon temperatures ranged from middle 70s to low 80s
with only a degree or two likely to be added to that this afternoon.

Tonight...surface high pressure will settle south into western
Nebraska through the overnight. Ample dry mid-level air will support
largely clear skies and as winds diminish, temperatures should fall.
Upstream observations show upper 30s to lower 40s dew points in
western North and South Dakota. This airmass is what is expected to
arrive into the local area. As such, lows have been lowered tonight
using NBM values with a blend towards statistical guidance. While
this falls short of the colder statistical solutions output, it does
produce fairly expansive lower 40s with a few locations potentially
touching the upper 30s. Even raw MET/MAV guidance falls short of
supporting frost conditions but this will need monitored. The going
forecast closely aligns with late morning HRRR runs, adding credence
to the forecast.

Sunday/Sunday Night...a slightly coler day is expected in the post-
frontal airmass. That said, recent performance from the NBM shows
that deterministic output has failed to capture the magnitude of
warming the past two days within a fairly dry airmass with anomalous
warmth off the surface. Because of this, afternoon highs were
boosted across the board but particularly in the west with blends of
MET/MAV guidance. This produces upper 60s in the east but upper 70s
in the far west. As high pressure departs the area, winds will again
flip to the south-southeast with gusts nearing 25 mph for areas
along and west of Highway 61. Lows should rebound with the southerly
winds continuing into the overnight. Forecast values of upper 40s to
middle 50s will be quite mild with many locations 10-15F above
normal for early October.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Upper ridging remains the dominant pattern across the western CONUS.
This will promote warm and dry conditions through the extended
forecast. While the northern stream remains fairly active, attendant
frontal boundaries dropping into western Nebraska will largely be
moisture starved and not really herald any significant airmass
change until next weekend. Ensemble guidance remains bullish on the
dry conditions with both EPS and GEFS output showing < 10%
probabilities for seeing a tenth of an inch or more anywhere in the
forecast area through Thursday. With westerly flow in a drier
airmass and influence from a thermal ridge across the central and
southern Rockies, daily high temperatures will remain above normal.
A look at LBF and VTN specifically shows highs generally at or above
the 75th percentile in each site`s respective climatology. By the
weekend, a pattern change appears possible as western ridging breaks
down and introduces a southwest flow. This occurs ahead of deeper
troughing that should settle into the Great Basin sometime
Saturday/Sunday. Confidence in details remains low but overall an
end to the dry/warm stretch appears probable for at least portions
of the High Plains sometime around Day 7-8.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions will persist through Sunday as high pressure settles
back over the region. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear with
winds generally below 10 knots. Any stronger wind gusts up to 25
knots this evening will gradually diminish after sunset.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion