769
FXUS63 KLBF 241147
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are likely through much of the day Wednesday, with
strong to severe activity possible during the late afternoon and
evening across western Nebraska.

- More expansive rain and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, but
the threat for severe weather is more conditional due to a marginal
background environment.


- High confidence in thunderstorm potential Friday before drier
conditions return for the weekend.

- Moderate confidence in a return to normal or above normal
temperatures for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Wednesday Morning...thunderstorms will plague the forecast for much
of the calendar day with a reprieve from activity possible around
midday. Early this morning, a stalled frontal boundary draped across
the Sandhills up through southeast South Dakota is serving as the
dividing line between a warm sector with middle to upper 60s dew
points and values closer to the middle 50s to the north. The former
of these values has allowed from moderate to strong instability to
remain in place across much of southwest Nebraska with Tuesday
evening RAOB data showing 2000 j/kg SBCAPE and short-term guidance
only showing minor modifications through the overnight, mainly in
the form of transitioning MU parcels becoming rooted off the
surface. Still though, modest low-level jet with weak theta-e
advection should support thunderstorm activity across southwest
Nebraska. Early morning activity may be capable of isolated severe
hail and perhaps a few instances of damaging wind gusts. The
training of slow moving storms should allow for locally heavy
rainfall to occur. HREF ensemble max output shows fairly expansive
0.50"+ QPF for areas along and south of the Platte Valley in
southwest Nebraska. While this may be slightly overdone, localized
areas of 0.25" certainly appears plausible through daybreak.
Especially in the event that lagging outflow from southeastward
diving storms interacts with the frontal boundary further to the
north and allows for persistent redevelopment. This is hinted at by
a few late evening HRRR runs but confidence remains limited so will
need to monitor this potential.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...early morning activity should subside
through the late morning. This lines up with decreasing advection
into the frontal boundary with a weakening low-level jet. The degree
of airmass recovery from late morning through early afternoon will
have large implications for the threat for severe weather later in
the day. The Storm Prediction Center introduced an Enhanced Risk
(level 3 of 5) for the Panhandle into northeast Colorado. This
outlook only clips Deuel and Garden Counties with a larger buffer of
Slight Risk (level 2) for areas southwest of a Chadron to Hyannis to
Maywood line. Aloft, the pattern looks conducive: a strong mid-level
jet will support strong deep-layer shear as mean westerly flow
advects a modest EML into the area with steep lapse rates. The
lingering question is if we see temperatures in the lower 70s or
lower 80s. Cooler temperatures should suggest a capping inversion
that may be too much to overcome as forcing remains somewhat
nebulous locally. Warmer temperatures though should suggest more
surface based convection potential with any lingering outflow
boundaries (density boundaries) from morning convection serving as
the focus for new development. Overall, HREF probabilities for
exceeding 75F generally reach 60%+ for much of western and central
Nebraska save for the western Sandhills. This generally aligns with
the NAM12 solution and paints moderate instability across southwest
Nebraska as a result. This matches latest SPC outlook and so believe
that after a lull around midday that new development in late
afternoon and evening will again pose the threat for strong to
severe weather. Primary concerns will be damaging wind gusts though
isolated severe hail will also be possible. Another developing LLJ
later in the day should help sustain convection well into the
evening with a severe threat persisting. On top of that, rich
moisture fetch into convection should lead to a threat for heavy
rain over some of the same areas that say reasonable rainfall from
Tuesday and early Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center covers
this threat well with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive
Rainfall generally southwest of an Alliance to McCook line. While
widespread flash flooding does not appear likely, isolated issues
will be possible so folks are advised caution. Modest high pressure
will clear southwest South Dakota and drive a frontal boundary south
late. With renewed convergence along this boundary from the
aforementioned LLJ, scattered to widespread thunderstorms will
likely linger through the overnight. While the severe threat will
likely be decreasing by then, the heavy rain threat will persist.
HREF probabilities of seeing > 1.00" QPF overnight Wednesday into
Thursday is fairly high at 50-70% along the same delineation as
mentioned above. A look at deterministic solutions shows pockets of
even heavier rainfall so this threat will need close monitoring over
the next 24 hours.

Thursday/Thursday Night...frontal boundary will sag further south
and stall near the Platte Valley by early Thursday. As southerly
flow resumes by late morning, this feature will again lift north
towards the Sandhills. This will allow for broad warm air advection
to overspread much of western Nebraska and lead to persistent rain
and thunderstorm chances through the day. Temperatures will vary
locally, with persistent clouds beneath prolonged precipitation
likely holding highs into the low to middle 60s for at least
portions of the Sandhills. Further south behind the lifting front,
temperatures should climb more and more closely match Wednesday`s
values in the middle 70s. Where this temperature gradient sets up
will play a large role not only in precise afternoon highs but also
where any threat for strong to severe thunderstorms sets up. SPC
maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) and given the lack of
stronger deep-layer shear and instability, am in agreement with
this. While not a prototypical heavy rain set up, antecent rains
with more heavy rain over similar areas may exacerbate wet soils and
lead to increased concerns. The Weather Prediction Center keeps a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) excessive rainfall outlook across the
area and believe this is adequate for now until confidence improves
on precise locations and rainfall magnitudes. Rainfall potential
should wane into the evening and overnight hours. Overnight lows
have trended up slightly given lingering clouds and increased low-
level moisture but current forecast values remain near to slightly
below normal for late June.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Active weather continues through the end of this week before quieter
weather arrives for the weekend. One last disturbance will slide
through the region on Friday bringing widespread thunderstorms to
much of the Panhandle and into north central Nebraska. As with the
previous week, some of these storms have the potential to be severe
especially in the late afternoon and evening where ample instability
will exist across the region. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the main threats with these storms. Temperatures begin to warm on
Friday, but still remain below normal with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.

Upper level ridging returns to the central US by the weekend
bringing a return to drier conditions. In addition, the ridging will
also allow temperatures to begin to moderate back to near or
slightly above normal (mid 80s). Warm air advection with 850mb
temperatures in the 20 to 28 C range will result in surface highs to
return to the mid to upper 80s on Saturday with highs remaining in
this range through early next week.

As the ridge begins to breakdown by early next week, isolated
precipitation chances return to the region. While not expecting
widespread severe thunderstorms at this time, some stronger storms
will be entirely possible, especially in the evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026


Across southern Nebraska, ceilings will remain below 5000 feet
through this evening. Another round of thunderstorms will arrive
this evening with some strong to briefly severe storms. Large hail
and strong, erratic wind gusts will be the main concerns as well as
reduced visibility due to falling rain and light fog. Storms will
weaken through the evening, but showers are expected through 12Z
Thursday. In northern Nebraska, the majority of the rain will remain
south of Highway 2, keeping KVTN in mostly VFR. Some lower ceilings
are possible this evening, but not expecting much below 5000 feet at
this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion