045
FXUS63 KLBF 111116
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
616 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late
  this afternoon across far western Nebraska. Appears to be a
  limited window for a couple of severe storms, especially west
  of Hwy 83 through early this evening.

- The Fire Weather Watch will be maintained for Sunday. Some
  concern that the wind will remain weaker across southwest
  Nebraska, and a headline may not be needed for this area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A significant warm-up is expected today as southerly low-level flow
and strong WAA develops. Highs well into the 70s are expected at
most locations. A surge of higher dew points (upper 40s and 50s)
should limit the overall fire weather concerns today. With the surge
in moisture/humidity will come a continued increase in low clouds
this morning. Also expecting patchy to areas of advection fog across
southwest into central Nebraska until mid-morning. Strong southerly
low-level winds will will help promote deeper mixing by late
morning, and the lower clouds should begin to break up and dissipate
from west to east.

With the clearing will come an increase in surface based instability
by mid to late this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen
through the day, and an axis of 1500+ J/KG of surface based CAPE
should develop along and east of a line from Imperial to Ogallala to
Hyannis to Merriman. Shear profiles within this region are quite
good, with 0-6 km values of 30-40 kts. Convergence will increase
along the dryline across far western Nebraska by late afternoon. It
appears initial convective development will take place near the
dryline where steep low-level lapse rates will reside. There may be
a brief window for dry lightning when storms first initiate, but
that threat should quickly end as they move into the deeper/better
moisture. Overall not expecting a lot of storms, but at least widely
scattered activity, with perhaps a storm or two taking on supercell
characteristics through the evening hours. Some uncertainty on how
far east the storms will move. Many of the CAMs quickly decrease
instability early this evening, with the storms falling apart by the
time they reach Hwy 83. There will be a low-level jet, but a bit of
drier air both at the surface and aloft mixes northward from western
Kansas aiding in the instability loss. Appears the window for any
severe storms will be limited and might not be much activity after
mid-evening.

Attention then turns to fire weather on Sunday. The Fire Weather
Watch will be maintained with this forecast package. Temperatures
Sunday will be quite warm with very low humidity values. Some
concern on how strong the westerly winds will be, especially across
southwest Nebraska. Will side on the stronger side as very deep
mixing should help bring stronger winds aloft to the surface. Even
so, southwest Nebraska may not meet criteria, but looks favorable
across the Sandhills, Panhandle and into north central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Monday will feature warm temperatures and dry boundary layer
conditions. With afternoon highs reaching around 80 and
widespread minimum RH falling to 12 to 22 percent across the
forecast area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
are possible Monday afternoon. Winds will be the main question
mark as to whether or not we reach critical fire weather
conditions or not. ATTM, the latest NBM ensemble forecast has
less than a 20% chance of > 25 MPH wind gusts Monday afternoon
over northwestern portions of the forecast area. This
probability drops off to near zero for the remainder of the
forecast area. When this threshold is dropped to 20 MPH, there
is a 30 to 50 % chance of wind gusts reaching this speed in the
NW forecast area. Elsewhere, the chance is less than 10 percent.
That being said, will not be issuing a fire weather watch for
Monday afternoon with this package, however, will continue to
hit the near critical messaging in the HWO and DSS partner
packets. On Monday night, a northern stream shortwave trough
will lift across northern South Dakota and North Dakota. The
latest NAM12 soln does have some elevated instability across the
panhandle into the western Sandhills and NW portions of the
forecast area Monday evening. Given the expected dry boundary
layer, dry lightning may become a concern in these areas Monday
evening. The northern stream shortwave, will force a weak cold
font through the area Monday night. This will result in highs in
the upper 60s to middle 70s for Tuesday and gusty northwesterly
winds. With the cooler readings, minimum RH Tuesday afternoon
will bottom out at 20 to 30 percent and should miss critical
criteria. Late Tuesday, an upper level trough will cross the
central Rockies, approaching the central and southern Plains
Tuesday night. This will bring an increased threat for light
precipitation to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Model
trends continue to lower pops as the threat for measurable
>0.01" of precipitation has trended downward. The latest NBM
ensemble has only a 50% chance of 0.01" or greater QPF over NW
Nebraska Tuesday night. This chance falls off quickly heading
southeast. For the bulk of the forecast area Tuesday night, the
percentages of measurable precipitation are generally 20 to 40
percent. When the threshold is increased to 0.05 inches,
percentages of exceedance fall into the 10 to 30 percent range.
So by no means will this be a wetting rain midweek. Wednesday
and Thursday will feature warm temperatures, dry conditions and
increased fire danger. Highs Wednesday will reach the lower to
middle 70s with highs Thursday in the mid to upper 70s. A cold
front Thursday night, will drop highs back into the 50s for
Friday. Precipitation chances in association with the front
appear low as the best forcing is north and southeast of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect IFR ceilings this morning with
cloud decks ranging from 400 to 800 FT AGL. Ceilings will
increase to around 2000 FT AGL after 18z, then 20000 FT AGL by
late afternoon. There will be a threat for thunderstorms from
00z to 06z Sunday and, with scattered coverage expected, will
handle this with a prob30 group. Skies will then scatter out
overnight. For the KVTN terminal: IFR ceilings will continue
through mid morning with MVFR ceilings developing late morning.
Ceilings will then scatter out by mid afternoon with cloud decks
ranging from 20000 to 25000 FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for NEZ204-206-208-210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion