265
FXUS63 KLBF 262006
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
306 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated chance of a strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening generally along and south of I-80
- Another round of thunderstorms possible early Thursday morning,
generally along and east of HWY 83
- Near daily shower and thunderstorm chances heading into the weekend
through early next week but severe weather potential remains
uncertain.
- A mini heatwave bringing anomalous temps is expected Friday through
Sunday, peaking Saturday with highs in the 90s and potential
triple digits in southwest Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
The main concern in the short term will be the chance for
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is good
moisture advection across southwest Nebraska with dewpoints in
the 60s. West across northeastern CO into SE WY is a stationary
front. Expect storms to develop near and east of the stationary
front in the moist axis. MU CAPE will be around 1800 to 2300
J/kg by later afternoon and evening. Expect the coverage to
mainly be isolated in coverage and a narrow window of time for
convection to occur, with the timing generally expected late
afternoon to mid-evening. Storms late this afternoon and evening
have an isolated chance of becoming severe with damaging wind
gusts and large hail.
As for the overnight hours into early Thursday morning, some of the
CAMs have started to hint at early morning convection, for the
eastern portion of the forecast area. A weak sw trof moves through
the area overnight and interacts with a narrow corridor of WAA in
the early morning hours across our eastern portion of the forecast
area, generally from along and east of HWY 83. This narrow corridor
has the greatest potential for thunderstorm development in the
morning, however at this time the threat for severe thunderstorms is
low. As for Thursday afternoon and evening, with the sw trof to the
east of the area expect conditions to remain mostly dry, with an
isolated chance of a thunderstorm developing off the higher terrain
to the west late afternoon/evening, but confidence in storms
sustaining themselves across western Nebraska is low, thus have left
precipitation chances low, generally around 20 percent or less.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Upper level ridging remains over the Desert Southwest throughout
Friday and moving eastward through the weekend, bringing the start
of anomalous warm air advection to the region. 850 mb temps are 25
to 30C across most of western Nebraska Friday afternoon, supporting
surface highs in the low to mid 90s across the region. A lee trough
is expected to develop across the northern plains during Friday
afternoon/evening. Combine this with southerly low level flow
bringing moisture from the Gulf should create a moist, unstable
airmass that could bring increased thunderstorm chances,
particularly across the eastern half of the CWA (along and east
of HWY 83). This also matches up well with SPC`s day 3 severe
weather outlook of isolated thunderstorms being possible.
Heading into the weekend, the upper ridge starts to become flattened
due to an upper trough starting to move across the Pacific Northwest
throughout the day Saturday. This will allow for strong
southwesterly flow aloft to become a driving force in way of much
warmer surface highs. Currently, it appears that Saturday afternoon
will be the peak of the mini heatwave. Most of the CWA is forecasted
to see highs in the mid 90s with areas along and south of I 80
potentially reaching triple digits. Sunday will be slightly cooler
with highs "only" reaching the low to mid 90s across the area. The
warmer temperatures should provide ample instability for any
embedded shortwaves to take advantage of to produce at least daily
thunderstorm chances through Sunday, though uncertainty remains if
any of those thunderstorms will be severe.
Moving into early next week, the upper ridge deamplifies and an
upper trough moves across western CONUS. A surface front may stall
out across Kansas into far southeast Nebraska Monday into Tuesday to
provide chances for showers and thunderstorms each evening. It is
important to note that while showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, widespread rainfall is not expected with guidance
suggesting only a 10 - 30 percent chance of at least a 0.25" Monday
through Wednesday. Surface highs will back down to near normal over
north central Nebraska (mid to upper 80s) and slightly above
normal across southwest Nebraska (low to mid 90s) Monday through
Wednesday.
With the stronger flow aloft and the warmer temperatures coming,
some fire weather concerns creep into the periphery. Focus lands on
Friday through Sunday for at least elevated fire weather conditions.
Anomalous high temperatures with humidity in the low to mid 20s
will combine with gusty westerly winds peaking on Saturday at
25 - 30 mph to create elevated fire weather conditions along and
west of HWY 83.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Mostly VFR conditions are expected with mostly light and
variable winds throughout the day. There is an isolated chance
of thunderstorms across southwest Nebraska, at this time it
remains uncertain if it will impact KLBF terminal, so have left
the mention out of the tafs for this forecast. The greater
confidence at this time exist south of interstate 80 and west
of HWY 83. Winds will become southerly tomorrow morning around 5
to 10 kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Gomez
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion