FXUS63 KLBF 240036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Winter weather highlights can be cancelled as the heavier snow is
east of swrn and ncntl Nebraska. The forecast through 4-6 pm this
afternoon is for less than an inch of new snowfall across ern
Frontier and southeast Custer counties. No snow is indicated

Arctic high pressure, centered over northwest Canada, will build
into wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight with the arctic high pressure
system centered over the Nrn high plains by Monday morning. The
cold air advection tonight prevents radiational cooling and keeps
highs Sunday in the teens and 20s. Southeast winds develop Sunday
night. The cooler bias corrected guidance blend was the basis for
the temperature forecast tonight through Monday morning. Lows
Monday morning, 5 below to 10 above zero might be too cool given
the southeast winds and expected cloud cover. If the forecast
verifies Monday morning, wind chill criteria would be reached
across northern Nebraska.

The snow forecast leans on the SREF model. A warm front is expected
to lift north Sunday night with midlevel frontogenesis developing
across SD. The best snow chance is across SD but parts of northern
Nebraska might see up to an inch of snowfall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

A persistent high latitude blocking pattern will continue to send
strong arctic high pressure into wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The models
show no change in this pattern through Saturday and the CPC forecast
for the next 6 to 14 days predicts below normal temperatures and
above normal precipitation for the region.

The light snow chance and midlevel frontogenesis will remain across
northern Nebraska Monday and Monday night. Tuesday could actually be
mild as the arctic front appears to lift north into SD and h850mb
temperatures rise to above 0C. This could support warmer highs than
the 20s and 30s currently forecast.

A second arctic high pressure system builds down Tuesday night and
another round of light, frontogenetically forced light snow is
suggested across northern Nebraska Wednesday night. Temperatures
Thursday rebound across wrn Nebraska with highs above freezing
before a third arctic front enters Nebraska Friday. Highs in the
teens and 20s are predicted next Saturday as this high pressure
system remains across the cntl and nrn Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

Storm system is moving off to the east of the region, and
conditions have rapidly improved across the area of western
Nebraska. Winds remain gusty from the north and will only slowly
decrease tonight. Scattered high clouds can be expected with VFR.





NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion