100
FXUS63 KLBF 181152
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
652 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning today across western and southwest Nebraska.
  The concern is gusty westerly winds up to 30 mph, low
  humidity, and well above normal temperatures leading to
  critical fire conditions.

- Much above normal temperatures Thursday from the upper 70s to lower
  80s with fire weather concerns remaining.

- Fire weather concerns peak Saturday as daytime highs climb
  into the middle 80s to lower 90s and westerly winds increase
  ahead of a sharp frontal boundary arriving sometime later in
  the day.

- Relatively cooler temperatures, albeit near seasonable norms,
  return for early next week but values should moderate once
  again towards the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Today, a strong upper level ridge will be centered over the Desert
Southwest, as an upper trough moves across the Eastern Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. Northwest flow aloft will reside across the
Northern and Central Plains. A weak surface trough will develop
along the Front Range of Wyoming and Colorado. This will bring
westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible to
areas west of Highway 61, especially across Garden County. Lesser
wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph eastward into west central Nebraska.
Warmer 850mb temperatures from 15 to near 20C, will mix up to 650mb.
The warmest highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s will reside for
areas south of HIghway 2. Nudged highs up near the NBM 50th
percentile and also used a blend of the 00Z HRRR and NBM for
slightly lower dewpoints. With afternoon humidity as low as 13
percent, and wind gusts up to 30 mph, a Red Flag Warning remains in
effect today from noon until 8 PM CDT for areas mainly west of
Highway 83.

For more information regarding the Red Flag Warning see fire weather
discussion below.

Tonight, winds will quickly decouple by 00Z, from light and variable
to light northwest. Humidity recovery will be lowest across the
western Sandhills and southwest from 60 to 70 percent, as lows fall
into the upper 30s to near 40.

Thursday, the upper level ridge will expand slightly further east.
850mb temperatures will be slightly warmer with mixing up to 580mb.
Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower 80s more expansive
across much of the area. Westerly winds will not be as strong in the
afternoon, mostly 5 to 15 mph, with gusty up to 20 mph far northern
Nebraska. Although humidity will be low at 15 to 20 percent across
much of the area, the light winds are expected to limit fire weather
concerns.

Thursday night, a weak surface trough will move through with a light
west to northwest wind below 10 mph. Lows will be mild in the low to
mid 40s with mostly clear skies with humidity recovery poor at 50 to
70 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Late week into early weekend remains on track to be the warmest days
of the forecast period.

Friday/Saturday...Ridge breakdown appears set to begin late Friday
as 590+ dam h5 high stalls across the Desert Southwest. This happens
as a shortwave disturbance rounds the dome of the high pressure and
moves into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will remain warm as
heights aloft remain at strongly positive anomalies, nearing +4 and
+3 sigma respectively at h2 and h5. Similarly, temperatures aloft
remain quite warm with values exceeding the 90th percentile from h85
up through h5. These values will climb through the day Friday as the
ridge axis crosses the Continental Divide. West-northwesterly flow
will continue through the day and the downsloping of warm, dry air
will foster another atypical late March day. ECWMF Extreme Forecast
Index (EFI) continues to highlight significant anomalies in the
model climatology with values of +0.8 or higher and non-zero Shift
of Tails (SoT). Trajectories at h7-h5 show abundant dry air upstream
and this will support largely clear skies which limits if not
removes one potential fly in the ointment. The compressional warming
will aid h85 temperatures in the middle to upper teens to push highs
into the upper 70s to middle 80s. Overall, spread in EPS/GEFS MaxT
guidance remains small with current forecast values settling near
mean output of the slightly warmer EPS. Even so, GEFS isn`t far
behind lending more confidence towards these solutions than the
seemingly erroneous NBM Percentile outputs. Thermal ridge peaks on
Saturday as h7 temperatures climbs into double digits over western
Nebraska. EFI and SOT values see a day-over-day increase, with
values of +0.9 and +1 respectively for areas along and south of
Interstate 80. Further north, uncertainty is creeping up as a
progressive cold front will be knocking on the door. Forecast highs
will likely reach the middle 80s to lower 90s for Highway 2 and
south, but NBM spread increases along the NE/SD border where 7F+
standard deviations are showing up. General thinking is fairly high
confidence heat across the southern half of the forecast area with
potential record breaking temperatures. For now, northern zones
remain on the warmer side of the forecast envelop but whether this
adjusts with later forecasts remains to be seen. Regardless of
timing of frontal passage, winds should veer quickly to the north
and gusts increase quickly. Lower NBM percentile output suggests 25-
35 mph gusts while BUFKIT soundings suggest closer to 40-50 mph
gusts. Folks should closely monitor later forecasts as wind gust
timing and magnitude precision improves.

Sunday and beyond...in the wake of the strong front, much cooler
temperatures are expected. Even with a nearly 30F drop from Saturday
afternoon highs, Sunday/Monday temperatures will still be near to
slightly above normal for late March. An elongated low-amplitude
shortwave will cross the Central/Northern Rockies sometime late
Sunday into Monday. This may reintroduce some light PoPs across
western Nebraska. NBM probabilities are fairly limited, 15% or less
for seeing a tenth of an inch, and EPS/GEFS output matches this
thinking well. Individual EPS/GEFS outputs for 90th Percentile QPF
only suggest up to a tenth of an inch and this is likely due to poor
synoptics and weak lift as a result. Ridging looks to redevelop
across the western CONUS as we approach the middle of next week.
Deterministic solutions vary on the strength and resultant
downstream pattern, thus confidence in more specific details is
limited at this time. NBM inner-quartile output does show a steady
climb from Monday through Wednesday and the forecast resembles this
with a return to well above normal temperatures by Day 7-8. Overall,
the pattern still favors mostly dry conditions with extended
ensembles only advertising 30-40% potential for exceeding a tenth of
an inch of liquid total (run accumulation) anywhere in the state
through late next week. Certainly not the most favorable outlook
given current drought and fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Skies should remain partly to mostly sunny with only high level
clouds passing through. Afternoon wind gusts should increase out
of the west, perhaps towards 20 knots, with stronger gusts west
of the terminals. Expect slightly variable winds tonight falling
to around 10 knots or less. Some guidance hints at valley fog
early Thursday morning, but confidence remains low so will not
include mention at this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across our western
zones Wednesday where Red Flag Warnings are in place. How far
east stronger wind gusts extend remains limited confidence and
may limit overall fire weather concerns for portions of central
Nebraska.

Wednesday...West-northwest flow persist early Wednesday morning
across the area. This should back to more westerly during the
daytime as temperatures climb across the area. Thermal ridge
will nose in from the west today and support increasing
temperatures across the area. Day-over-day changes should top
5-10F for most locations within the Red Flag Warning, possibly
closer to 15F over far north central Nebraska. Cross Rockies
flow will continue to be moderate to strong as h7 flow increases
through the day. This will promote modest lee troughing and
strengthening west winds. With warmer temperatures and similar
if not lower dew points, expecting lower afternoon humidity
minimums today. Winds will again be gusty but fail to match the
magnitudes seen Tuesday, with peak speeds around 25 to 30 mph.
Extent of these stronger winds closely aligns with HREF
probabilities of exceeding 25 mph, which shows a fairly sharp
gradient from the western Sandhills (100%+) through central
Nebraska (< 40%). The inherited Red Flag Warning appears to be
on track, though conditions may be more marginal for Zone 219
and eastern Zone 206. No changes are planned, however.

Thursday/Friday...temperatures should climb slightly for
Thursday and then Friday, with nearly 1-2F boosts day-over-day
for all locations. While the significant warmth (for March) will
support humidity values in the 12-20% range each day, winds will
be the limiting factor. NBM only suggest roughly 50/50 potential
for exceeding 25 mph gusts and favors north central Nebraska
versus the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska where the lower
humidity is expected. This matches NAM guidance which shows an
extension of an h7 speed max crossing north central Nebraska
during the afternoon. Similar thinking is in place for Friday
with significant warmth, low humidity, but questionable winds.
NBM probabilities increase and this matches better h7 flow
across the whole of the area but weak surface pressure gradient
winds may hamper mixing enough to prevent the boundary layer
from reaching this stronger flow. It should be close though so
will need to monitor closely going forward.

Saturday...the warmest day of the forecast period with ridge
breakdown beginning late Friday and ridge axis settling south
and east across the High Plains. Temperatures at h7 peak in the
lower teens degC during the afternoon with 1000-500 thickness
values nearing 575 dam. Highs are in close agreement with
EPS/GEFS mean values which suggest middle 80s north and lower
90s south. Forecast record highs are in place at North Platte,
Broken Bow, and Imperial, with a near record for Valentine.
GFS/ECWMF output varies with progression of a surface low and
arrival of a frontal boundary, so some variability continues
with extended outlooks. The EPS is further north and weaker with
any potential surface low, but the more progressive nature drags
the trailing front south into the area quicker. The GEFS tracks
the low across Nebraska with the northern plains front settling
south later in the day. The EPS solution suggests greater
daytime winds and potential for greater fire weather concerns
while the GEFS keeps most concerns until later when winds can
finally increase behind the front. Both solutions depict a sharp
front, however, and timing of this feature and magnitude of wind
gusts behind it remain low confidence at this time. Do believe
increasing winds appear likely behind this front and will
continue to message gusts in excess of 30 mph behind a west to
north flip.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT
/7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion