497
FXUS63 KLBF 271249
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
749 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A couple rounds of thunderstorms are possible on Thursday for
portions of western and central Nebraska, with a lower
confidence/higher event ceiling severe weather setup for the afternoon
and evening where the SPC has introduced a Slight Risk (level
2 of 5)
- Warmer temperatures arrive for Friday and Saturday with highs
climbing to the middle 90s and low 100s for many by the start
of the weekend.
- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances heading into the
weekend through early next week but severe weather potential
remains uncertain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Update to include areas of fog for Deuel, Keith, Perkins and
Chase County. Visibilites are as low as 1/4 at Imperial and
Grant. Expect a gradual improvement through 8am MDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Early this morning, generally tranquil conditions were noted across
the region. Modest high pressure continued to shift south with
veering flow on the back side of this feature reintroducing weak
warm/moisture advection to the area. Temperatures were slowly
decreasing with expansive low 60s central and east and values
remaining in the upper 60s in our far west. Further decreases are
probable with a few locations likely managing to reach the upper 50s.
Thursday Morning...departing high pressure will allow south to
southwesterly flow to become reestablished across our central and
western zones just prior to dawn. While not overly strong, some warm
air/moisture advection should manage to lead to some low-end
precipitation chances along a north-south oriented line as we
approach dawn. Short-term guidance shows adequate isentropic lift
around the 310K surface within a moist layer where mixing ratios are
progged to exceed 7 g/kg. Forecast soundings show a saturated layer
and limited elevated instability rooted around 2km AGL. Instability
is largely limited with MUCAPE generally at or below 500 j/kg with
the exception being areas along and south of the Platte Valley who
may manage to exceed 1000 j/kg. This will likely to lead to isolated
to widely scattered general thunderstorms favored to form invof the
Highway 83 corridor. No severe weather is expected and the prospect
for heavy rain appears to be limited as well. Lift should wane
quickly by mid-late morning and should allow a return to mostly dry
conditions for much of the area.
Thursday Afternoon/Evening...attention quickly turns to the prospect
of thunderstorms to move into the area from the north, with severe
weather possible. The SPC has introduced a Slight Risk stretching
from the NE/SD border south through the NE/KS border roughly between
the Highway 61 and 183 corridors. Southerly flow will reinforce low-
level moisture with a slight boost to middle 60s within a narrow
plume of strongest fetch. Temperatures will see a slight bump as
upper ridge axis approaches from the west and h85 temperatures see a
slight 1-3C increase from 24 hours prior with highs in the middle to
upper 80s. Beneath steepening lapse rates, moderate to strong
destabilization should occur this afternoon within a strongly
sheared environment with 0-6km BWD values exceeding 40 knots. Storms
should develop this afternoon off the lee of the Black Hills where
southeasterly flow should promote orographic lift. Though with the
approach of the h5 ridge axis, mid-level height rises will be
detrimental to initial CI attempts but sustained upslope flow should
be able to overcome this. At the same time, a modest h7 wave should
arrive into western South Dakota/Nebraska and the additional support
from this feature will help provide forcing for ascent to allow for
thunderstorm development. HREF QPF probabilities have shown a fairly
substantial increase from prior runs for much of the afternoon
hours. Activity should be ongoing in at least an isolated coverage
by mid-afternoon with increasing coverage by late afternoon/early
evening as storms begin to track more south-southeast into an
increasing low-level jet. The aforementioned strongly
sheared/moderate to strongly unstable environment will be more than
supportive of organized convection including multiple supercells.
Forecast hodographs show modest low-level curvature but largely
speed shear promoting long/straight wind profiles in the 1-7km
layer. CAPE distribution through the thermal profile shows fat
instability aloft as LI values approach minus 7-9C. While
instability appears to be fairly high below the freezing level, the
combination of supercell structures, robust instability, and a
highly sheared environment suggests large to very large hail will be
possible. While far from the most impressive inverted-v profile,
high DCAPE (exceeding 1000 j/kg) and max 0-3km delta theta-e values
support a damaging wind potential as well. Congealing cold pools
should also support upscale growth in time and increasing damaging
wind potential into the evening hours. As the LLJ increases into the
evening, forecast hodographs enlarge and could potentially lead to a
non-zero tornado threat as well but competing storms as they grow
upscale casts some doubt on this potential. The Wednesday evening
HRRR run (00z) appears to highlight the worst case scenario for the
event: multiple southward diving supercells erupting by 21-23z (4-
6pm CDT) with multiple long track simulated updraft helicity swaths
crossing the Sandhills. This speaks to the potential ceiling for the
event but what actually happens is likely to fall short of this
output. HREF probabilities fall off quickly by Midnight CDT and dry
conditions are largely expected to return by early Friday morning.
Friday/Friday Night...upstream ridge axis should spill onto the
Plains by early Friday. Broad height falls will overspread the area
as upper-level moisture crosses the central/northern Rockies.
Increasingly cloudy skies will be the result with modest
precipitation potential following for the late afternoon and
evening. A dryline feature will set up across the Nebraska Panhandle
and may provide a focus for more robust thunderstorm development
later in the day. Moderate to strong instability is likely to
develop as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s east to middle
90s west. Shear will again be supportive of organized convection but
weak convergence along this boundary to the west as well as capping
lingering through the day casts some doubt on storm development and
maintenance. Any LLJ support will favor areas to the north and
should help sustain activity closer to I-90 crossing South Dakota.
Have kept Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs for the early evening but these
may need refined with later forecasts. The gusty winds should keep
things mild Friday night and low temperatures will likely hold in
the 70s for central Nebraska with middle 60s further west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Saturday, the upper-level ridge will move eastward into north Texas,
as an upper trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. This will
bring a west-southwesterly flow aloft and a downsloping
southwesterly surface wind and above normal temperatures. Saturday
will be the warmest day, reaching the mid 90s west, with upper 90s
near 100 across the southwest. Dry conditions expected during
the day. With a southwest wind 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph
at times across the western Sandhills along with afternoon
humidity falling to as low as 20 to 25 percent, elevated fire
weather conditions are expected mainly west of Highway 61
Saturday afternoon. A weak cold frontal passage Saturday night,
with low chances for showers/storms. Sunday, highs slightly
cooler behind the front in the upper 80s, with 90 to 95
southwest. The surface front is forecast to extend from
southwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska. Low chances again for
showers/storms Sunday night, mainly across the west and south.
A longwave trough moving through the West Coast of the U.S. into the
interior West and upper ridge extending across the Southern Plains
and southeast U.S. will bring an increased southwesterly flow aloft
to the region Monday through Wednesday. A surface front may remain
stalled out across southwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska Monday
and Tuesday, providing a better chance for showers and storms Monday
night, and again Tuesday night. High temperatures moderate to 85 to
90. By Wednesday, a cold front and shortwave trough is forecast to
move east across the Northern and Central Plains, with at least a
slight chance for showers/storms.
Despite daily precipitation chances, meaningful rainfall is not
expected Saturday through Monday morning. NBM 48 hour probabilities
for at least 0.25" ending Monday morning is only 5 to 15 percent.
Probabilities increase to 25 to 35 percent area wide for the 48 hour
period ending Wednesday morning, when wetting rains appear more
promising.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Guidance is indicating thunderstorms may initiate across
northern Nebraska after 21Z with a southward development into
the evening hours. While confidence is only average in location
and timing, have included VCTS at KVTN 22Z until 02Z. At KLBF,
VCTS 01Z-06Z, with a PROB30 for 2SM TSRA SCT035 BKN080CB. With
any thunderstorms, gusty and erratic winds, and brief periods of
low visibility from thunderstorms may occur. Further refinement
in timing will be evaluated in upcoming TAF forecasts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Roberg
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion