826
FXUS63 KLBF 021950
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
250 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to high confidence in severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening with damaging winds and hail being the main threats.

- Moderate to high confidence in a continued near-daily severe
thunderstorm potential Wednesday and Thursday.

- High confidence in mild temperatures through the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Another round of convection is possible late this afternoon and
evening as a weak front moves into portions of northern and north
central Nebraska. Overall instability of the region is moderate with
CAPE up to 2000 J/kg and lapse rates of 6 to 7 C/km. Despite this,
shear remains relatively minimal (generally less than 30 knots).
Still, any thunderstorm development will have the potential for some
strong wind gusts (up to 65 mph) as well as some briefly severe hail
(1 to 1.5 inches). Storms initiate across South Dakota and the
Panhandle by late afternoon into early evening and drift eastward
through the evening hours pushing out of the region from west to
east by late evening with the main area of concern generally
remaining across northwest Nebraska (Pine Ridge region). Some
lingering, sub-severe storms may continue across the eastern half
(east of US-83) of the forecast area through early Wednesday
morning. There is some concern in the agreement amongst model
guidance making confidence in storm development and strength on the
lower side. Regardless, any storms that can develop in this
environment, will likely become severe although locations is
uncertain at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Heading into the extended period, the active weather pattern will
continue as a series of shortwaves and associated fronts continue to
track through Nebraska creating near-daily rain and thunderstorm
chances through the end of the week.

For Wednesday, while the set-up remains similar to Tuesday, the
severe threat moves slightly east. Overall, the severe threat should
mostly remain north across South Dakota, but some decent instability
(steep low level lapse rates, moderate CAPE, and wind shear) will
still exist across north central Nebraska. This may lead to some
isolated to scattered storms to develop as far south as the
Sandhills. Development is generally expected to start off isolated
by late afternoon before congealing into a line by mid-evening. This
environment will be favorable for large hail and strong wind gusts
early, transitioning over to a mostly wind threat by mid to late
evening.

Thursday brings another potential for severe storms as another
shortwave pushes into the region. A frontal boundary combined with
significant instability across the region will provide enough
support for convective initiation across portions of northern
Nebraska by late afternoon. While details for this system is till a
little uncertain, current thinking is that storms will initialize
across South Dakota and the western Panhandle and slowly propagate
to the east and southeast entering into northern Nebraska and the
Sandhills by mid-evening. Any storms that can develop, will have the
potential for very large hail as well as damaging winds. Further
details on this system will be provided in future forecasts.

Temperatures through the weekend remain above normal as continued
warm air advection pushes into the central Plains. Highs will remain
in the 80s with lows in the 50s through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Some stronger east southeast winds will gust up to 25 knots this
afternoon in advance of the next weather system arriving tonight.
Rain and thunderstorms will develop to the west and push into north
central Nebraska this evening. Confidence is greatest that storms
will impact northern Nebraska including KVTN where strong, erratic
winds as well as some small hail will be possible. Further to the
south, while confidence is lower in thunderstorm development, still
think an isolated shower or two will impact areas into south central
Nebraska as far south as I-80. Conditions will gradually improve
across the region through the morning hours with gusty southerly
winds up to 25 knots possible again during the day.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion