388
FXUS63 KLBF 092251
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
551 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances tonight into Friday are the concern in
  the near-term. Could see some isolated to scattered instances
  of damaging wind with tonight`s activity. Dry weather is
  expected Saturday and beyond into next week.

- Hot temperatures are expected Sunday through at least
  Tuesday, with highs in the 90s and some locations potentially
  approaching 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

One last round of thunderstorms is expected across the area late
this afternoon into tonight. Early this afternoon analysis shows
that overall shear is weak. That is expected to increase some
mid to late afternoon as low-level southeasterly flow increases.
This is in response to a deepening area of surface low pressure
across eastern Wyoming. A couple of different areas for
convective initiation this afternoon. 1) across the higher
terrain of SD, WY and CO. This is already occurring. 2) Several
weak boundaries are located across the area and could serve as a
focus for isolated develoment. This seems most likely across the
Sandhills, where recent satellite imagery does show some
towering cumulus near and southwest of Mullen. Several of the
hi-res cam models do initiate some isolated convection near
these boundaries this afternoon. Of more certainty will be for
the convection off the higher terrain to organize early this
evening across the Panhandle as it moves eastward into a moist
up-slope southeast flow regime. Hail could occur early on,
especially where convection is firing off to our west. Also any
isolated convection that develops farther east along the
aforementioned boundaries could contain hail. Otherwise should
see the Panhandle convection grow upscale into at least a
loosely organized MCS this evening as it tracks eastward toward
Highway 83. Isolated to scattered areas of damaging wind gusts
would be the main concern with this activity. Some uncertainty
on how far east this activity will make it before weakening.
Latest trends do make it to Highway 83 with at least some threat
of stronger wind gusts.

Tomorrow is also a bit uncertain in regards to precipitation.
Several of the CAMS including the 09/18Z HRRR shows a lingering
MCV that becomes nearly stationary across central Nebraska from
tonight`s convection. If this were to occur, there may be quite
a bit in the way of cloudiness and at least some threat for
scattered shower/thunder activity. This trend will have to be
monitored.

As we head into the weekend, dry weather is expected. A strong
area of upper-level high pressure will expand across the region.
By Sunday it should be centered just to our northwest, with very
light winds and warming temperatures aloft, as mentioned, this
will keep things dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Sunday into the middle of next week, an upper-level ridge will
amplify and strengthen across the central United States, with 500mb
heights potentially approaching 600 dam across the region. Ensemble
guidance indicates 850mb temperature anomalies of 4 to 8C above
normal, with the greatest anomalies focused across the Dakotas. This
pattern will support hot and predominantly dry conditions as the
stronger upper-level flow remains north of the region. High
temperatures will likely climb into the low to mid 90s across much
of the area, with some locations potentially approaching 100
degrees. As mentioned in the previous discussion, NBM percentile
guidance remains somewhat less aggressive with high temperatures.
However, given the strength of the upper-level ridge, anomalously
warm temperatures aloft, and continued dry conditions across
western and central Nebraska, temperatures may ultimately trend
warmer than current deterministic guidance. We will continue to
monitor this over the next few days. Winds will also increase early
next week as surface low pressure develops along the central
Rockies, tightening the surface pressure gradient across the region
and promoting gusty southerly winds. Overall, the pattern early next
week is supportive of significant heat, along with dry and gusty
conditions through at least Tuesday.

Wednesday into Thursday, the strong upper-level ridge is expected to
begin breaking down as an upper-level trough develops across the
northeastern United States. This may allow a backdoor cold front to
move into the region by late next week, bringing temperatures back
toward seasonal levels. The evolving pattern may also provide some
opportunities for precipitation, though the potential for widespread
precipitation currently appears low. Confidence in the timing and
evolution of this pattern shift remains limited due to continued
differences among model guidance, and trends will continue to be
monitored over the next several forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A line of thunderstorms will move eastward across the area this
evening. The threat with these storms will be locally strong
gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail, with
surface winds light outside of any thunderstorm activity. VFR
conditions are expected through the day Friday at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion