639
FXUS63 KLBF 042018
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
318 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions remain probable (90%+ probability of
no measurable rain) through at least Wednesday.
- Outside of a low-end chance for rain late Wednesday across
north central Nebraska, precipitation potential appears
limited until a pattern change arrives sometime next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
This afternoon, surface high pressure continues to drift southeast
across the central and eastern parts of the state. Southerly winds
were increasing on the backside of this feature with gusts in the 20
to 25 mph range for areas along and west of Highway 61. Further
east, winds remained light at or below 15 mph. Temperatures
continued to climb with upper 60s over north central Nebraska
increasing to low to middle 70s south and west. Only another few
degrees should be added to any one location for peak highs this
afternoon.
Tonight...high pressure will continue to depart the area as lee
troughing increases across the Front Range. This will increase the
pressure gradient and lead to steady winds through the overnight
hours. Moisture fetch will also increase with upstream observations
showing low to middle 50s dew points. Deterministic solutions carry
this plume of richer low-level moisture into western Nebraska and
combined with the persistent winds, should allow for much milder
lows. Temperatures should fall into the upper 40s to middle 50s,
warmest outside the sheltered areas where winds may be more gusty.
This is especially true for the Pine Ridge east along the Niobrara
Valley.
Monday/Monday Night...troughing will continue to deepen across the
central and northern Plains through the early part of the day. The
resulting compressed pressure gradient will support gusty south-
southwest winds through much of the day, peaking late morning into
the early afternoon. NBM 30+ knot probabilities highlight a fairly
transient jet max with peak wind gusts translating west to east
through the day, peaking around 50-80% for portions of the central
Sandhills into much of north central Nebraska. Raw RAP/HRRR output
agrees with this, showing stronger south-southwest flow peaking 15-
18z (10am-1pm CDT) along Highway 83 then focusing east to the east
by mid-afternoon with slight decreases. In the vicinity of a surface
trough, winds will likely remain below 15 mph. Within the general
westerly flow behind this feature, downsloping winds will promote
warmer and drier conditions. While above normal temperatures are
likely for all of central and western Nebraska during the afternoon,
warmer values climbing into the middle to upper 80s appear probable
behind this trough. The drier air will foster humidity values
falling below 25% west of Highway 61 and potentially fall to the 10-
15% range closer to Highway 385 and points west. Though these values
will constitute critical humidity, the stronger winds remaining well
east of the lowest humidity preclude greater concerns. The surface
trough should work back west in the evening allowing humidity to
once again fill in to the west. With a resumption of steady winds,
mild overnight lows are expected again with upper 40s to lower
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Dry conditions remains likely through the first half of the upcoming
week. Upper ridging across the western CONUS should flatten some
with general northwesterly flow persisting. Moisture will remain
bottled up along the Gulf Coast with westerly low-level flow within
a dry airmass supporting above normal temperatures. Daily max
temperature values at both KLBF and KVTN appear set to exceed the
75th percentile values in each site`s respective climatology for Max
and Min temperatures. Confidence remains high in dry conditions
through the middle of the week for most locations.
A new wrinkle in the coming forecast is a frontal boundary expected
to move into the area around the late Wednesday/Thursday timeframe.
A northern stream disturbance should drag another cool front south
into the area. While this is unlikely to support a noteworthy
airmass change, the boundary should stall in the area with
increasing kinematics into the evening supporting rain and
thunderstorm potential. Deterministic solutions differ on timing and
placement thus this remains somewhat low confidence, however, recent
ensemble guidance shows increasing QPF probabilities for central and
eastern Nebraska. Output from the NAM, GFS, and ECWMF all paint at
least light QPF but differ on placement, timing, and magnitudes. For
now, have maintained a dry forecast with newly introduced PoPs
focused over Knox/Cedar Counties immediately to our east. Greater
support for rainfall chances and cooler temperatures should arrive
this weekend as a much more formidable trough dives southeast across
the Pacific Northwest. Southwesterly flow prior to arrival of this
upper-level disturbance will allow for greater moisture quality to
establish itself and should support increased rain potential. An
introduction of cooler air from the northwest bears watching for its
potential to introduce our first shot at wintry weather but for now
this appears likely to remain over western South Dakota.
Temperatures should fall through the weekend into the following week
but to what magnitude remains unclear as NBM temperature spreads
remain quite large.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
The main aviation concern will be developing LLWS tonight
transitioning to gusty south winds through the late morning.
Have inserted a mention at both LBF and VTN beginning early
Monday morning as winds ramp up quickly off the surface. This
should persist for a few hours before developing into gusty
winds at the surface with peak speeds around 25 to 30 knots.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion