FXUS63 KLBF 150447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

A weak disturbance will move across parts of northern Nebraska this
afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are possible,
however forcing will be weak and thunderstorm development looks to
be isolated. The best chance will be across northern Nebraska this
afternoon and evening along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. There
may be enough instability for thunderstorms to develop farther south
across the Sandhills and parts of north central Nebraska however the
environment becomes less favorable so have left the chances as

For late tonight a few models including the HREF have generated
showers and thunderstorms developing across western South Dakota and
will move into the northwest Sandhills.

For tomorrow confidence is greater that showers and thunderstorms
will develop. A stronger shortwave trough will move across South
Dakota and Nebraska. The environment will be favorable for a few
supercell thunderstorms to develop with CAPE Values around 1500 j/kg
or more. Southeasterly winds will help stream warm moist air in the
low levels. There will be a weak jet max around 250 mbs with wind
speeds around 60kts. SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon with the greatest risk across the northern
Sandhills into parts of north central Nebraska. The main threat will
be large hail and damaging winds along with lightning. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across the northern Sandhills in the
afternoon with thunderstorms possible through the overnight across
north central Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

There is a slight chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
continue Thursday morning across parts of north central Nebraska
before exiting the CWA. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be this weekend on Saturday and Sunday as another
system moves through the area. At this time severe weather chances
remain unclear and will continue to monitor future model runs to
increase forecaster confidence in severe weather along with heavy
rain potential.

Temperatures will cool down on Sunday with the passing of a cold
front Saturday night keeping temperatures in the 70s Sunday through


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

For the KLBF terminal: Patchy fog will develop overnight with
visibilities as low as one mile between 10z and 14z Wednesday
morning. Otherwise, expect some scattered high cloudiness over the
next 24 hours. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered to broken
ceilings around 20000 FT AGL overnight into Wednesday morning.
Ceilings will lower Wednesday afternoon with a threat for
thunderstorms increasing after 18z Wednesday.





NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion