529
FXUS63 KLBF 240502
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Bouts of rain and thunderstorms, including the threat for
heavy rainfall, will dominate the forecast through Friday
Night with a high likelihood (60-90%) of rainfall exceeding
one inch southeast of an Ogallala to Atkinson line.
- A brief return of warmer and drier weather is likely this
weekend with daytime highs returning to the 70s to lower 80s,
or 5-10F above normal for late September.
- Active weather resumes next week with expansive Likely
categorical (55%+) PoPs for much of western and central
Nebraska Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Early this afternoon, low stratus across the area was gradually
eroding but stopping short of leaving anything but partly cloudy
skies. This has effectively stunted the afternoon warmup with highs
holding in the lower 60s for north central Nebraska to the middle
and upper 70s for our west and southwest areas. Winds have remained
gusty with peak speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range out of the south.
For tonight, expect increasing PoPs as a passing shortwave in tandem
with an increasing LLJ drives increasing lift. Isentropic lift
centered around the 300K surface with moisture advection will lead
to isolated convection by late this afternoon, increasing to
scattered to widespread activity through the evening. Modest
instability and weak shear should preclude a strong to severe
thunderstorm threat, however, anomalous precipitable water values
with nearly 1.50" observed on the Wednesday midday RAOB suggests a
heavy rain potential. CAM output supports this with pockets of
1"/hour rain rates in the heavier cores, particularly in the
afternoon/evening as instability remains at its highest. With loss
of greater instability into the overnight, the concentration of
heavier rain cores decreases. HREF probability-matched mean output
shows some of the heaviest QPF between 21z and 03z (3pm to 9pm MDT)
but a noticeable decrease thereafter. Still though, overnight
rainfall amounts could top out at 0.50" or higher in localized
areas. Lows tonight were boosted somewhat. Given afternoon dew
points already in the middle to upper 50s and a likely influx of
moisture coincident with increased low-level clouds/rain over the
next 6 to 12 hours, values were increased to the upper 50s to lower
60s. This aligns with consecutive runs of the HRRR.
Thursday/Thursday Night...a frontal boundary will settle south and
arrive in northwestern zones by early in the day. Shortwave ridging
will arrive into the central Rockies by midday with subtle height
rises as a result. Behind departing high pressure to the east, south
to southwesterly flow will persist and feed into the boundary over
western Nebraska. This should allow for renewed rain and
thunderstorm development during the day and evening. Recent
trends have been to push this focus south slightly and invading
dry air into our northwestern zones will erode much of the QPF
as a result. Forecast PoPs were cleaned up a bit as a result,
with slight decreases northwest and increases further south and
east. Where precipitation is likely to be most persistent,
afternoon highs will struggle to climb out of the 60s with
warmer 70s further north and west. Leaned on NAM guidance for
QPF, which favors this southward trend and the result is 0.50"
or greater southeast of an Imperial to Brewster to Chambers
line. Again, with limited instability and poor shear, no severe
weather is expected. Lows Thursday night will be cooler with
widespread 50s and a few locations threatening the upper 40s.
Friday/Friday Night...deeper troughing will arrive into the Pacific
Northwest early in the day. A lead shortwave will effectively lead
to height falls through the day but focus for southerly moist
advection and warm air advection will focus further east. While PoPs
will likely linger through the day for much of the area, it`ll be
the light QPF variety with weak lift locally and deep saturation
within poor lapse rates. This will likely suggest more a soggy/damp
day versus one with more expansive rain/thunderstorm potential.
Temperatures, as a result of the lingering cloud cover, will remain
cool for central and eastern Nebraska but moderate to the 70s yet
again for southwest Nebraska through the western Sandhills. This
will be followed by lows in the 50s once again with some locations
threatening the upper 40s in our west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Broad ridging will reside along the Texas Gulf Coast with a
departing mid-level shortwave tracking east of Nebraska towards the
Mississippi Valley. Shortwave ridging with relatively strong height
rises will overspread the Central Plains on Saturday. The resultant
subsidence will quell precipitation potential and foster a slight
warmup across the region. An elongated surface trough will settle
into our western zones and once again serve as the dividing line
between much humid, much milder temperatures east and drier, warmer
air to the west. At this time, believe any increased fire weather
threat should remain to the west across the Panhandle but this will
need monitored in the coming days. Dry weather will persist through
the weekend into Sunday as daytime highs climb into the 70s and 80s.
Deeper troughing will settle into the Great Basin around the start
of the work week and this will lead to ridge breakdown locally.
Within the southwesterly flow, an influx of moisture from the
eastern Pacific from Hurricane Polo should lift northeast through
the Desert Southwest and into the Central Plains. Ensemble guidance
is in good agreement in painting precipitable water (PWATs)
exceeding 150% of normal by Monday and Tuesday. As an upper trough
crosses the Northern Plains, rain and thunderstorms will increase
ahead of and behind a passing frontal boundary. Ensembles continue
to paint high probabilities for heavy rain with 50-80%+ chance to
exceed 0.50" of rainfall in the late Monday/Tuesday time frame.
Details remain murky at best so continue to check later forecasts
for the latest thinking. This increased potential for rain and
thunderstorms will coincide with cooler air as NBM inner-quartile
values fall into the 60s for much of western Nebraska. This will be
followed by a slow climb through the end of the next suggesting a
return to more seasonable temperatures appears probable as we start
October.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
A broad shield of rain will continue to lift north into
southwestern and central Nebraska overnight. ATTM the bulk of
this precipitation will remain south and east of the KVTN
terminal, however, periods of rain will impact the KLBF terminal
overnight into midday Thursday. For the KLBF terminal: Ceilings
will quickly fall to IFR levels below 1000 FT AGL shortly after
forecast issuance and remain there over the next 24 hours.
Expect periodic visibilities down to around 5 SM with light to
moderate rainfall expected. For the KVTN terminal: Expect mainly
cloudy skies with ceilings gradually falling to MVFR levels
toward 12z Thursday. Ceilings will gradually improve by late
morning Thursday with broken ceilings ranging from 6000 to 10000
FT AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion