636
FXUS63 KLBF 191120
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
520 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect very warm temperatures across the forecast area this afternoon
  with highs running 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this
  time of year. Critical fire weather conditions are expected in
  the central and western Sandhills, as well as the eastern
  Panhandle this afternoon due to a combination of low relative
  humidity and gusty westerly winds.

- A cold front will track through the forecast area tonight, bringing
  a slight chance of light snow to portions of the eastern
  Panhandle and northwestern Sandhills. Little to no
  accumulations are expected.

- After "cooler" readings in the 40s Saturday, readings will
  climb into the mid 50s to mid 60s for Monday through
  Christmas Day. Expect dry conditions through this period.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a broad shortwave
trough of low pressure extending from the Arrowhead of
Minnesota, south along the Mississippi River to southern
Arkansas. East of this feature, high pressure was anchored over
the central Caribbean with ridging extending north to Bermuda.
West of the trough, ridging was present from eastern Idaho to
southern portions of Saskatchewan. West of this ridging, a
decent shortwave trough was present along the western coast of
British Columbia. Immediately downstream of this feature,
embedded shortwaves were noted over central and eastern British
Columbia. Overnight, per satellite imagery, a broad plume of
high cloudiness was present from the pacific NW into the central
and northern Rockies. This shield of high cloudiness had pushed
east onto the high plains of Montana, northeastern Wyoming and
the western Dakotas. At the surface overnight, a broad area of
high pressure was present across the central portion of the
CONUS from northern Texas, north to the Canadian Border.
Overnight, skies were generally clear with a few high clouds
beginning to drift into northern Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2
AM CT, ranged from 11 degrees at O`Neill to 23 degrees at
Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

An upper level disturbance, currently over British Columbia,
will migrate east into southern Alberta, then Southern
Saskatchewan by 00z tonight. As this feature migrates east
today, surface low pressure will deepen across Alberta and
Saskatchewan in advance of the H5 shortwave. This will force a
warm front through the forecast area this morning, followed by
the establishment of a surface trough this afternoon. By mid
afternoon, this feature should be aligned across central
portions of the forecast area. West of the surface trough, there
is the potential for gusty west winds. The latest NBM ensemble
has a better than 50% chance for wind gusts greater than 30 MPH
generally west of a line from Valentine to Paxton this
afternoon. This probability is greater than 75% across the
western Sandhills into the eastern Panhandle mid afternoon. With
the west winds this afternoon and ample mixing, afternoon highs
will reach well into 60s across locations west of an Ainsworth
to Broken Bow line. Mid to upper 50s are expected east of this
line. Record highs for today are 63, 66, 63 and 69 for North
Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow and Imperial respectively. With
the forecast high of 66 at Imperial, 65 at North Platte, 62 at
Valentine and 59 at Broken Bow, North Platte stands the best
chance this afternoon of breaking a record high temperature.
Winds will diminish fairly quickly early evening as forecast
soundings indicate quick decoupling across the area. Overnight,
as surface low pressure tracks from Saskatchewan into western
Ontario, it will force a cold front through the forecast area.
Little to no precipitation is anticipated with this feature,
other than some slight chances for light precipitation mainly
over the Pine Ridge of northern Sheridan County. The inherited
forecast had a good handle on this forecast and was in good
agreement with tonight`s deterministic HRRR, NAM12 and GFS
solns. In light of the decent CAA behind the front, breezy
conditions will continue into the overnight and will lead to
above normal lows tonight with readings in the mid to upper 20s
forecast across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Broad ridging will build across the central CONUS beginning
Monday and persisting through the end of the week. Very warm
temperatures are likely next week with periodic high
temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s each day. Wouldn`t
be surprised if several record high temperatures were eclipsed
next week across the area. In fact the latest ECMWF EFI table
has high temperatures Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in the
greater than 95th percentile for EFI and around the 90th
percentile for Christmas Day. The SOT on those days is
indicative of a extreme event with the strongest signal on
Monday and Wednesday. As for record high temperatures next week,
ATTM Wednesday and Christmas day have the best chances for
breaking their records of 62 and 65 respectively. Record highs
for Monday and Tuesday are in the lower 70s for North Platte.
Given the current forecast, we will be short of those readings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Skies will be mainly clear over the next 24 hours with a few to
scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Winds will begin to
increase this morning, becoming westerly at 15 to 25 KTS. Some
gusts up to 30 KTS are possible this afternoon at the KVTN
terminal. Low level wind shear will be possible this morning at
the KLBF terminal and this evening at both the KVTN and KLBF
terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Looking at the NBM ensemble forecast probabilities for wind
gusts this afternoon, there is a decent threat for 25+ MPH wind
gusts extending east of the current RFW in zone 204. This
increased threat for wind gusts encompasses a broad area in zone
206. Current min RH in this zone is in the upper teens to
around 20 percent. There is also support for higher wind gusts
in the 00z HRRR forecast for mid afternoon today. The NAM also
advertises a tongue of stronger winds in the H800 to H700 level
spreading east of the panhandle into the central Sandhills for a
brief period this afternoon. If temperatures do warm above the
current forecast, these stronger winds have a better potential
of reaching the surface. The only caveat in all of this is
possible high level cloud cover this afternoon across northern
into eastern portions of the forecast area. The latest NAM12 rh
product, with support from the GFS doesn`t have a strong signal
for cloud cover this afternoon. That being said, with min RH in
the upper teens and forecast confidence in seeing 25+ MPH wind
gusts spreading into zone 206 this afternoon, will add this zone
to the existing RFW this afternoon. This lines up better with
the latest day one fire outlook from SPC.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning to 6
PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NEZ204-206.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion