846
FXUS63 KLBF 170631
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions continue through Saturday across all
  of western and north central Nebraska.

- Elevated fire weather concerns remain, but overall winds will
  be mostly light keeping the threat in check.

- Heat remains the main concern Sunday and Monday for western
  and north central Nebraska with daytime highs ranging from 98
  to 102 and similar heat indices.

- Precipitation chances return as early as Sunday, but
  meaningful precipitation appears unlikely until Wednesday and
  Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in firm
control right though Saturday. The actual center will be located
across WY/CO with elongated H5 heights extending eastward
across NE/KS from the center. This will continue to keep the
flow aloft very weak. Today looking quite hot once again, with
highs nearing 100F across portions of north central NE. Will see
some diurnal cumulus once again. There is a weak, diffuse
front, across far northern Nebraska into southern Sough Dakota
which could serve for a focus for a late afternoon shower or
even isolated thunderstorm. Confidence is very low and no pops
have been added at this time.

A very weak back-door cold front is forecast to drop southwest into
the area Saturday. This turns the low-level flow to east-northeast
and continue to see a slight downward trend in high temperatures.
Looking like highs will settle in the lower to mid 90s for most
locations, which will continue to keep heat headlines from being
needed.

Elevated fire weather concerns in areas that haven`t received the
rainfall the past few weeks...but overall winds remain mostly light
and won`t be a major concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Sunday and Monday...The hottest days of next week. A broad upper
ridge will extend across the Western and Central U.S. The upper
ridge will be centered from Utah across western Kansas. NBM
probabilities for greater than 100 degrees remains near 50 to 80
percent across north central Nebraska on Sunday. Heat indices will
be around 100 across north central Nebraska, so a heat headline may
be needed with later forecasts. A surface trough will extend to our
wet across southeast WY into the SD Black Hills, with a weak warm
front to the east across central SD. There is a slight chance for a
few showers or thunderstorms Sunday night, mainly across the
northwest Sandhills. NBM probabilities for greater than 100 degrees
near 50 to 80 percent is more expansive east of Ogallala through
Valentine on Monday, and also where heat indices will range in the
upper 90s to around 100. A heat headline may also be needed in later
forecasts for Monday across much of the forecast area. A weak cold
front is forecast to move into northern NE Monday afternoon. This
may trigger isolated storms Monday afternoon and evening, although
the NBM forecast keeps low POPs confined to the western Sandhills
and southwest Monday evening/overnight. A cold front will quickly
advance south Monday night.

Tuesday through Thursday...A reprieve from the heat is expected
Tuesday with highs 85 to around 90, and mid to upper 80s Wednesday
and Thursday. The upper ridge will be pushed further south into the
Rockies and Southern Plains with upper troughing across the Great
Lakes. This will place western Nebraska in northwest flow aloft with
at least slight chances for showers/storms each day Tuesday through
Thursday. The best opportunity for precipitation appears to be
Wednesday into Wednesday night per the 00Z deterministic ECMWF, GFS,
and Canadian GDPS, as well as the corresponding ensembles.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Friday. It appears that the threat for
any southerly low-levek jet and associated wind shear is quite
weak and has been removed from the LBF TAF site. Otherwise
surface winds will vary from southwest to southeast at 5-15 kts
through Friday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion