989
FXUS63 KLBF 170758
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
258 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light precipitation is possible along the Highway 20 corridor
  this morning. While little precipitation is expected,
  freezing drizzle may be possible for a few hours this morning.
  Little to no ice is expected.

- Critical fire weather conditions are again expected across
  western and north central Nebraska today, due to a combination
  of warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low relative humidity.
  Critical conditions again appear possible for western Nebraska
  on Wednesday.

- Warm and dry conditions persist through the end of the week,
  with daytime highs pushing the 80s to near 90F by Saturday.

- A crashing cool front sometime late Saturday should bring a
  brief period of strong northerly winds and more seasonable
  temperatures to start next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A warm front tracks through northern Nebraska this morning, which
may provide sufficient forcing for some light precipitation along
and north of the Highway 20 corridor. Confidence in precipitation
remains low, so have trimmed PoP mentions even further with this
forecast cycle. Bufkit soundings do show a noticeable warm nose
aloft with the warm front, with freezing surfaces at the surface.
This introduces a slight chance for freezing drizzle just ahead of
the front. However, most of the high resolution guidance remains
very reluctant to bring precipitation into northern Nebraska, with
"high end" amounts being around one one hundredth of an inch. While
there is some moisture aloft, forecast soundings remain quite dry at
the lower layers, suggesting any precipitation falling will likely
evaporate prior to hitting the ground. Assuming the lower layer of
the atmosphere can moisten enough to allow for precipitation, again,
expecting very little liquid precipitation, but there would be a
period for transitioning precipitation types. Will leave the
precipitation mention in the forecast in case the environment can
support precipitation reaching the ground, with the most likely
timing of precipitation type and timing. Again, expect very little,
potentially nothing at all, to reach the surface early this morning.

The bigger concern today will be behind the warm front. Temperatures
behind the front return to well above normal, with highs across
southwest Nebraska potentially breaking into the low to mid 70s.
Expecting poor overnight humidity recovery across the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska, which will contribute to relative humidity
values between 20 to 25 percent, with some local drops under 20
percent. However, another bout of stronger winds is expected today,
which raises the concern for critical fire weather conditions.
Westerly winds this morning become more northwesterly by the
afternoon, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and peak gusts up to
45 mph. Given the strength of the winds, will maintain the inherited
Red Flag Warning across most of western and north central Nebraska.

As for tonight, expecting relatively mild conditions across the
region, with overnight lows in the mid 30s. Winds decrease for a
period overnight, remaining out of the west. Also expecting better
humidity recovery overnight, with maximum relative humidity values
in the 70 to 80 percent range.

Mild overnight temperatures tonight will help set the stage for an
even warmer day on Wednesday. A strong upper level ridge tracks
across the region, with very warm 850 mb temperatures around 20 DegC
or warmer. All of this combined with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies will allow for temperatures to climb Wednesday afternoon.
Continue to make slight trends towards warmer temperatures for
Wednesday, with highs in the 70s across the entire region, and
potential for some highs in the 80s across southwest Nebraska and
portions of the Panhandle. Again, expecting that warm temperatures
will contribute to lower relative humidity values across the region,
with lowest humidity values in the 15 to 20 percent range (generally
where highs will be at or above 80 degrees). Guidance continues to
suggest decent mixing in the boundary layer, leading to west to
northwest winds around 10 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. This will
bring yet another day of potential critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The extended forecast period remains largely unchanged from recent
thinking with building heat and continued fire weather concerns.

Thursday through Saturday...dry weather will persist into the late
week as upper ridging builds across the Desert Southwest. At the
same time, thermal ridging will push onto the central and southern
High Plains with h7 temperatures approaching 8-10C, or nearing the
99th percentile in NAEFS guidance, and h10-h5 thickness values
exceeding 560 dam, by later Friday. The result is highs reaching the
upper 70s to middle 80s Thursday/Friday but climbing further into
the 80s to near 90F for Saturday. This overall aligns with the
latest ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) which shows expansive +0.8
values and Shift of Tails (SoT) of 1. This matches EPS/GEFS thinking
with the greatest probabilities of exceeding 90F daytime highs,
peaking south of Interstate 80 to varying confidence levels from
each respective output. Whether temperatures reach the upper 80s or
lower 90s, it will be very warm for late March with anomalies
exceeding +25-30F across the whole of Nebraska. Upper ridge axis
appears set to extend across the Plains Saturday with subsequent
ridge breakdown. So after the hot day, a cold front will quickly
settle south into the area. Extended guidance seems to be honing in
on Saturday evening for frontal passage with strong to potentially
significant wind gusts behind it. This will need closely monitored
going forward as some signals suggest gusts could easily exceed 40
mph during the overnight hours.

Sunday and beyond...frontal passage from Saturday night is largely
expected to be dry, however, the incoming airmass will push
temperatures back to more seasonable levels to start next week.
While NBM spread remains fairly large, median values settle into the
upper 50s to lower 60s. These values are more typical to what we see
in late March, though they still may reach 5-10F above normal. NBM
higher percentile outputs remain largely void of any appreciable
precipitation potential. Toward the Monday-Tuesday time frame,
EPS/GEFS show a small signal for a light precipitation event across
much of Nebraska. This lines up with a weak trough crossing the
Central Plains but antecedent conditions do not support good
moisture quality in the environment ahead of this feature so any
precipitation will likely remain on the light side. Temperatures
will climb slightly through the end of the forecast period and
should reach well above normal levels towards the middle of next
week. Large scale troughing may set up over the western CONUS around
this time and could promote greater precipitation potential in the
Day 8-12 timeframe but confidence remains low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Increasing cloud cover and the threat for light wintry
precipitation will be the main aviation concerns over the next
24 hours.

A passing warm front will promote light precipitation potential
for northern Nebraska towards daybreak Tuesday. This may fall as
SN and/or FZDZ but confidence in occurrence is low. Will insert
a brief mention, however, with minor impacts possible and amend
later as necessary. What appears more probable is low-end MVFR
and even IFR CIGs at VTN and will carry a short mention before
conditions return to VFR. Clouds should gradually scour out
during the late afternoon though skies will likely remain partly
to mostly cloudy into Tuesday evening. Have added a mention of
LLWS for both terminals as daytime gusty winds decrease at the
surface but winds off the surface persist through the end of the
period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NEZ204-206-210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion