610
FXUS63 KLBF 242301
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
601 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Off and on rain with a few embedded thunderstorms will persist
for areas southeast of an Imperial to Broken Bow line through
the overnight tonight.
- Rain chances decrease for the daytime Friday but renewed
convection should arrive from the south late Friday night
into early Saturday morning favoring portions of southwest and
central Nebraska.
- After a dry and warmer weekend, rain chances increase yet
again for Monday into Tuesday as a slug of tropical moisture
spills onto the Plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Early this afternoon, a band of rain continues to shift east into
central and eastern Nebraska. This was driven by a broad area of low-
level warm air advection (WAA) and modest fgen centered around h85-
h7. With the weakening and departure of this lift, activity was
winding down over western Nebraska. Behind this, northerly flow was
helping draw in drier air and this along with greater insolation
from partly to mostly sunny skies had led to warmer temperatures.
Central and southwest Nebraska was holding onto the middle 60s but
further northwest, locations managed to reach the 70s and even some
upper 70s with 78F at Valentine as of 2pm CDT.
For tonight...a passing shortwave will reinforce WAA and along with
increased DCVA will drive another increase in rain and thunderstorm
coverage. HREF and CAM solutions show an increase in isolated to
widely scattered convection across western Kansas/eastern Colorado
this afternoon and with time this activity should lift north and
east into the local area. Mid-day LBF RAOB shows moist adiabatic
lapse rates with a deeply saturated profile as PWATs once again
exceed 1.5" and near 200% of normal for late September. Given the
poor lapse rates and resultant poor instability, severe weather is
not anticipated but convection including some lightning appears
probable. This will favor our southeast including areas southeast of
an Imperial to Broken Bow line. Given the anomalous moisture in
place, heavy rain will be the main concern with any convection and
the area of greatest concern will align with the same footprint as
the lightning potential. HREF probability-matched mean (PMM) values
shows a few localized areas exceeding 0.50" of rainfall through the
overnight but overall most locations will remain closer to 0.25" or
less. Meanwhile, the decreasing clouds and drier air invading the
northwest should allow for a cooler night. Lows are forecast in the
upper 40s in vicinity of the Pine Ridge while clouds and
precipitation should hold all other locations into the middle to
upper 50s.
Friday/Friday night...deeper troughing will arrive into the Pacific
Northwest by early in the day. A lead shortwave trough will lift
north and east across the northern Rockies through the day.
Southeasterly moist flow through the day will drive continued light
precipitation chances through the day, favoring north central
Nebraska where the greatest focus for lift will reside. As a result,
PoPs slowly lift north and east with time and favor east of Highway
83 and north of the Platte Valley system. Have PoPs limited to
around 30-35 percent with only a few hundredths of QPF in the
forecast. This matches HREF PMM output which suggests largely trace
amounts across the area. NWP forecast soundings support this with
the profile unzipping as mid-level dry air increases. Saturation
whittles down to the lowest 1-3km AGL with weak lift suggesting more
dreary/drizzly precipitation than outright rain. Further south, as
precipitation manages to depart the area quicker, temperatures may
moderate better and thus afternoon highs were increased. Values
range from middle 70s southwest and west to middle 60s northeast.
The warmer temperatures may foster greater destabilization as lapse
rates improve. HREF shows this as similar to a warm front lifting
north with increasing MUCAPE values through the evening and nearing
750+ by late evening. This should open the door once again to
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. Though lift is somewhat
nebulous, PoPs will increase through the evening south to north
before shift east of Highway 183 towards daybreak Saturday. Again,
no severe weather is expected but locally heavy rainfall and
infrequent lightning will be possible. Both HREF and REFS show a few
localized swaths of greater QPF suggesting CI succeeds in the area.
Timing remains somewhat uncertain with HRRR and NAM Nest runs
differing by 2-4 hours. That said, late evening should see an
increasing thunderstorm threat and potential for more heavy rainfall
east of a Hayes Center to North Platte to Broken Bow line. Low
temperatures will likely settle into the 50s for most if not all
locations once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
This weekend...Upper troughing will lift north and east towards the
Canadian Prairies as a cutoff low forms over the Northeast Coast.
Heights aloft will build as a result and lead to a period of dry and
warmer weather. Daytime highs over the weekend will climb to the
middle 70s to middle 80s across the local area with the warmest
values in the west. A trailing front/surface trough will extend down
through the Northern Plains and move into western Nebraska. This
will propel dry air off the high terrain into western Nebraska. This
will likely introduce some humidity minimums falling into the 20 to
25 percent range for the Panhandle and perhaps as far east as our
western zones. At this time, precise eastward extent of this drier
air is somewhat uncertain but in any event, marginal winds should
preclude greater fire weather concerns.
Next week...the next disturbance to affect the region takes shape
over the central valley of California by late Sunday/early Monday.
As this feature digs south, broad height falls will expand across
the Great Basin and into the central/northern Rockies. Resultant
southwesterly flow will feed rich tropical moisture from Hurricane
Polo through the Desert Southwest and into much of the Plains. As
the trough approaches by late Monday into Tuesday, rain and
thunderstorm potential increases markedly with the model blend
producing 65-85%, or "Definite" categories, across much of western
and central Nebraska. NBM QPF probabilities remain quite bullish
with 50%+ potential for exceeding a half an inch of rain along and
east of Highway 61. While finer details will need sorted out,
confidence in wetting rains for at least portions of the area
continue to increase though precisely how much will likely not be
resolved until this weekend at the earliest. Lingering moisture and
additional upper-level impulses should allow rain potential to
continue through the end of the forecast period. This will likely
occur with moderating temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
For the KLBF terminal: Expect mainly IFR ceilings below 1000 FT
AGL over the next 24 hours. Visibilities will gradually fall to
around 1/2sm with fog around 11z Friday. Visibilities will
gradually climb Friday morning reaching p6sm after 21z Friday
afternoon. For the KVTN terminal: Expect VFR ceilings through
08z Friday with IFR ceilings developing after 08z with ceilings
under 1000 FT AGL. Ceilings will remain below 1000 FT AGL
through 00z Saturday. Visibilities will eventually end up below
1sm between 11z and 15z Friday morning. Visibilities will then
increase after 17z to 3 to 5sm.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion