523
FXUS63 KLBF 112330
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday, as abnormally
  warm temperatures and low relative humidity combine with
  westerly wind gusts in excess of 60 mph across western
  Nebraska. Across north central Nebraska, wind gusts of 50 to
  60 MPH appear possible.

- Elevated fire weather conditions appear possible Friday over
  far SW Nebraska. Near critical fire weather conditions are
  possible Saturday across southwestern Nebraska as well as
  portions of the western Sandhills.

- Light rain and snow is possible behind a cold front Saturday
  night into Sunday. At this time, areas north of Interstate 80
  have the best potential to see accumulations.

- Warm temperatures will return to the area beginning Tuesday. By
  late next week, widespread highs in the 70s appear probable.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

H5 analysis this morning had a broad trough of low pressure,
centered across the middle of the CONUS. This trough extended
from the eastern Dakotas south into central Texas. Within this
trough, decent shortwaves were noted: The first over northern
Nebraska, a second over central Texas and other, weaker
disturbances which extended from the Arklatex, northeast into
the middle Ohio Valley. High pressure was anchored just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula. A second high was anchored off the coast
of southern California. North of the high, closed low pressure
was located over the Gulf of Alaska. The northern Nebraska
disturbance, brought light accumulating snows to all but the
southern quarter of the forecast area overnight. Snowfall
amounts were generally in the 1 to 3 inch range with Burwell and
Merna reporting 3 and 3.5 inches respectively. At the North
Platte Airport, we received 0.7" of snow overnight. Conditions
this afternoon were clear to partly cloudy and 2 PM CT readings
ranged from 35 degrees at Gordon to 45 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

High winds and critical fire weather conditions are the main
forecast challenges over the next 36 hours. Surface high
pressure will slide south of the forecast area this evening. As
it does, winds will shift to the west overnight and will begin
to increase, especially outside of river valleys. Lows tonight
will be generally in the mid to upper 20s and will end up being
hit early with temps possibly warming overnight tonight. Surface
low pressure will deepen as it tracks from southwestern
Saskatchewan to eastern North Dakota on Thursday. With this
feature to the north of the area and high pressure further south
across the southern plains, a tight pressure gradient will
reside from South Dakota south into Kansas. This will lead to
strong westerly winds Thursday. Bufkit soundings indicate
efficient mixing- in some areas above H700, Thursday afternoon.
Mixed layer winds reach 60+ MPH for the western Sandhills and
northwestern into portions of north central Nebraska Thursday
afternoon. For the wind forecast Thursday, utilized a blend of
75th and 90th %ile winds. This kept wind speeds pretty much in
line with the inherited forecast. That being said, upgraded the
high wind watch to warning and added Thomas county to the
warning. Was considering locations east of Cherry county to Boyd
and Holt county for expansion of the high wind warning. I am
concerned about a 1-3 hour window of high winds in association
with an arctic cold front Thursday evening. The bulk of the high
winds with this feature are located from South Dakota into
Minnesota and northern Iowa. Some of these higher winds approach
our far northeastern CWA Thursday evening. After collaboration
with FSD and OAX, it was decided to forgo a high wind warning
with this forecast package. As for highs on Thursday, went
slightly above the NBM numbers given the strong mixing and west
down sloping winds. This yielded 70s across the whole forecast
area. With the warm readings and strong winds Thursday, critical
fire weather conditions are likely Thursday afternoon. More
about that in the fire weather section below. Low pressure will
track east of North Dakota Thursday night, forcing a decent cold
front through the forecast area. This front will then stall
just off to the southwest of the forecast area Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The cold front, mentioned above, will lift northeast as a warm
front Friday, lifting into southwestern and portions of west
central Nebraska. Highs will vary widely across the forecast
area with highs ranging from the lower 40s in the far northeast,
to near 70 in far SW Nebraska. Saturday will feature a wide
range in temps once again with highs ranging from around 50 in
the northeast to the lower 70s in SW Nebraska. Winds will also
increase, becoming windy in SW and western Nebraska Saturday
afternoon. This will lead to elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions Saturday. More about that below in the fire
section. By Saturday night, a strong arctic cold front will
track through the forecast area Saturday night. Strong mid level
frontogenesis will track across northern Nebraska, behind the
cold front, Saturday night into Sunday. This will lead to a good
chance for precipitation with the best chances over the
northern half of the forecast area. Given the arctic airmass and
well below freezing H85 temps behind the front, am expecting
precipitation to start out as rain with a quick changeover to
snow overnight Saturday night. Exact snowfall amounts remain
uncertain ATTM, however, based on some of the ensemble and
deterministic model solns, feel there is a fairly low threat of
warning type criteria (> 6 inches) of snow currently. The arctic
airmass will hang around the forecast area through Monday,
before retreating east Tuesday. Highs Monday will range from the
freezing mark in the northeast, to the upper 40s in SW
Nebraska. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will rebound back into the
50s and 60s Tuesday, followed by 60s and 70s for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska tonight and tomorrow. Some mid level fair weather
cumulus is observed on satellite this evening, which should continue
to clear out over the next several hours, before more clear skies
occur for most of the region. In northern portions of the state,
skies remain cloudy with mid to high cloud cover overnight into the
morning. Winds gradually calm this evening after sunset, becoming
light and variable for a period overnight. However, a strong low
level jet begins to develop overnight, causing LLWS concerns around
sunrise. Additionally, strong mixing is expected throughout the
morning and afternoon, causing very gusty westerly winds across the
region. At area terminals, peak gusts of 40 kts are expected, with
gusts in the Panhandle exceeding 55 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

In the short term, critical fire weather conditions appear likely
Thursday. Minimum RH Thursday afternoon will reach 16 to 23 percent
across the area. This will be coupled with westerly wind gusts
ranging from 40 MPH in the east up to 65 MPH in the eastern
Panhandle and western Sandhills. The main timing of concern for
Thursday is from noon to 10 PM CT. A red flag warning has been
issued for the entire forecast area.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across far SW Nebraska
Friday afternoon. Minimum RH will reach around 20 percent with wind
gusts up to 20 MPH possible.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible
across southwestern Nebraska and the western Sandhills Saturday
afternoon. Minimum RH will reach 18 to 25 percent with wind gusts
around 25 MPH in these areas.

Fire weather concerns will fall off Sunday into Monday as the area
will be under the influence of an arctic airmass. By Tuesday into
Wednesday, fire weather concerns will increase as high temperatures
reach back into the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Thursday for NEZ004-005-022>025-035-036-056-057-094.
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion