796
FXUS63 KLBF 101750
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1250 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today then warmer with increasing humidity Saturday.
  The increase in humidity should help to initiate at least
  widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across far western
  Nebraska. This activity will move eastward across the area
  Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Cooler conditions will be in store for the area today. High pressure
settles through the Mississippi River Valley, with a cool easterly
low-level flow to persist across our area through the day. A
significant warm-up is expected Saturday as southerly low-level flow
and strong WAA develops. Highs well into the 70s are expected at
most locations. A surge of higher dew points (into the upper 40s and
50s) should limit the overall fire weather concerns. With the surge
in moisture will come an increase in low clouds. A bit of concern as
to how fast they will burn off and erode to the east. Appears that
deeper mixing by midday should help with clearing.

With the clearing will come an increase in surface based
instability. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the day, and
an axis of 1500+ J/KG should develop along and east of a line from
Imperial to Ogallala to Hyannis. Shear profiles within this region
are decent, with 0-6 km values of 30+ kts. Convergence will increase
along the dryline by late afternoon. It appears initial convective
development will take place near the dryline where steep low-level
lapse rates will reside. Storms will be high based initially, with
bases likely lowering some as they move east-northeastward into the
better low-level moisture. Could be a brief window for dry lightning
when storms first initiate, but that threat should quickly end as
they move into the deeper moisture. Overall not expecting a lot of
storms, but at least widely scattered activity, with perhaps a storm
or two taking on supercell characteristics through the evening hours
as they move eastward into an increasingly strong southerly low-
level jet.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Low pressure will track from North Dakota into Minnesota on
Sunday forcing a warm front and moisture front (pseudo dryline)
into eastern Nebraska. Across western and north central
Nebraska, dry boundary layer air will be in place. This dry air,
coupled with expected highs in the lower 80s Sunday, will lead
to low afternoon relative humidities across the area. The
combination of low relative humidity and possible wind gusts up
to 25 MPH may lead to near critical or critical fire weather
conditions Sunday afternoon in the western Sandhills and far SW
Nebraska. Monday will feature slightly cooler highs with
readings around 80. A dry airmass will continue to be located
over the high plains with low level moisture residing over far
eastern Nebraska. This will result in another day of low
relative humidities across the area. Winds appear lighter Monday
which will alleviate fire weather concerns across the area. By
Tuesday, an upper level trough of low pressure will cross the
Four Corners, approaching the Central Plains Tuesday afternoon.
Forcing east of this approaching shortwave trough and increasing
amounts of meager low level moisture, will lead to the best
chances for precipitation in the extended periods. The latest
NBM ensembles indicate a better than 60 percent chance of
measurable pcpn. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. When this
threshold is increased to a tenth of an inch, the probabilities
fall off into the 30 percent range. ATTM, the threat for
measurable precipitation looks promising, however a wetting rain
appears unlikely ATTM. High temperatures will fall back into
the 70s for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Low level moisture
Tuesday, will alleviate fire weather concerns, however, drier
air is expected behind the exiting shortwave trough Wednesday
and Thursday, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions.
Will need to watch wind potential those days as well as this
will be a factor in near critical or critical fire weather
conditions Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the daytime
Friday before increasing low clouds and precipitation working in
from the south lead to degraded conditions.

Surface high pressure will pass across northern Nebraska with a
return to southeasterly and then southerly flow. An increasing
LLJ will produce some LLWS concerns in addition to gusty winds
at both terminals. Resultant moisture advection will also
support rapidly lowering CIGs with IFR/LIFR expected across
portions of southwest and central Nebraska, and MVFR further
north and west. While light rain/drizzle is possible with this
activity, confidence is limited with HREF probabilities of
measurable rain limited to around 10-15% and so will omit from
the forecast at LBF.

Clouds should be slow to break towards the end of the period
and so refinements to timing and magnitude of impacts will
likely be needed with later forecasts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion