353
FXUS63 KLBF 211716
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1116 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very windy conditions today across the Sandhills and northern
Nebraska. Peak wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected along
and north of Highway 2. These winds will lead to elevated fire
weather concerns this afternoon.
- An arctic front arrives Thursday night, bringing bitterly
cold temperatures in its wake. Wind chills of 15 to 30 below
zero are expected Friday morning. An Extreme Cold Watch has
been issued for north central Nebraska, where wind chills of
30 below are expected.
- The front also brings a chance of accumulating snowfall across
western and north central Nebraska. There is still some
uncertainty in exact amounts, but probabilities for at least
an inch of snowfall continue to increase.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
A cold front races south across the Dakotas this morning, which will
bring very gusty winds across western and north central Nebraska
this afternoon. Strong winds aloft will mix down to the surface,
with the highest winds expected along and north of Highway 2. As the
front approaches, winds shift from westerly to northwesterly. This
morning, sustained westerly winds of 20 to 25 mph are expected,
gusting up to 35 mph across northern Nebraska. By late morning/early
afternoon, sustained northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected,
with gusts of 45 to 55 mph. With the arrival of the cold front, high
temperatures this afternoon across northern Nebraska reach the mid
30s to the low 40s. This will keep afternoon relative humidity
values between 30 to 40 percent, remaining above critical fire
weather thresholds. However, these very strong winds are cause
enough for at least elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon,
especially across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills. Winds
gradually weaken this evening as the front continues south. Behind
the front tonight, lows drop into the teens across the region.
Thursday, an arctic cold front races south across the Dakotas, with
a strong surface high building across western North Dakota/eastern
Montana. While a fairly quiet weather day is expected on Thursday
across the region, this front and high pressure system will set the
stage for the next few days of weather. For Thursday afternoon,
highs across the region range from the 20s across northern Nebraska
to the upper 30s across southwest Nebraska.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Thursday evening, the arctic front is expected to track through
Nebraska. The strong high pressure across western North Dakota and
an upper level trough support strong cold air advection across the
region, bringing a blast of frigid temperatures. Overnight lows are
now expected to be subzero across the region, with the coldest lows
around 10 to 15 below zero. However, the winds behind the front will
bring dangerous wind chills across the region, with wind chills
ranging from 15 to 30 below zero. The coldest wind chills are
expected across north central Nebraska, where widespread wind chills
of 25 to 30 below (and potentially colder) are expected. As such,
have issued an Extreme Cold Watch for portions of north central
Nebraska this shift, as confidence is high in exceptionally cold
wind chills Thursday night into Friday morning. Even outside the
current watch, wind chills are expected to drop to 15 to 25 below
zero. Additional cold weather headlines may be needed for most of
the region, so be sure to keep up to date with the forecast!
Friday remains bitterly cold across the region, with highs in the
upper single digits in southwest Nebraska to potentially subzero
highs in north central Nebraska. Though the exceptionally cold wind
chills of 20 below zero are expected to "warm up" by mod morning,
subzero wind chills are expected across the region Friday, at most
feeling around 10 degrees below zero. With the cold temperatures
throughout the day, another very cold night is expected Friday night
into Saturday morning. Subzero lows are once again expected, with
lows ranging from 5 to 10 below zero. Winds are expected to be
somewhat lighter, but very cold wind chills are again expected.
Widespread wind chills of 20 below or colder are expected, so there
is potential for additional cold weather headlines Friday night
through Saturday morning.
The other concern with this arctic front is the potential for snow
showers across the region. Guidance continues to remain in
disagreement on amounts, with large disparity between the GFS
solution and the ECMWF and Canadian solutions. The European and
Canadian ensembles continue to increase probabilities of one inch or
greater of snowfall this weekend, and the latest NBM reflects this
with higher PoPs. Between the European and Canadian solutions, the
probability of one inch or greater of snowfall now sits at 70 to 100
percent across portions of the region, while the GEFS solution
remains pessimistic, only bringing up to a 50 percent solution
across southwest Nebraska. However, deterministic solutions from the
NAM, RRFS, ECMWF, GDPS, and even the GFS, are all in agreement
bringing accumulating snowfall across western Nebraska, the
Sandhills, and into southwestern Nebraska. There is still some
disagreement in amounts, with solutions varying from 1 to 3 inches
and varying in the location of snowfall. However, all of this
combined does increase confidence that accumulating snowfall is
likely somewhere in western Nebraska this weekend. This will
continue to be refined over the next few forecast cycles.
Continuing to look ahead, another cold morning is expected on
Sunday, with subzero lows and wind chills around 10 to 15 below zero
across the region. Slight upper level ridging attempts to track
across the region, which should bring another period of quiet
weather Sunday into early next week. This may also support some
gradual warming into early next week, with highs early week
potentially pushing into the 30s and 40s again.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Strong gusty northwest winds will be the main aviation concern
until 21Z across north central Nebraka. Northwest winds gusting
to 45 to 50kts will continue at KVTN, KANW and KONL until 21Z.
Winds across western and north central will quickly diminish by
00Z Thursday. VFR conditions SCT250 expected to prevail through
the end of the TAF period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
morning for NEZ005>010-027>029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion