973
FXUS63 KLBF 231731
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1231 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible (15-25%) across
portions of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills this afternoon and
evening. Though severe weather is not expected, a few storms may
produce gusty winds.
- A threat for strong to severe storms returns Sunday afternoon
and evening, primarily for areas near and east of Highway 83.
Hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats.
- Very Warm temperatures heading into Memorial Day with highs in
the 90s
- Breezy conditions Monday and Tuesday
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Today, surface low pressure will deepen across Wyoming and Colorado,
bringing a return of southwesterly winds and modest moisture from
the surface to 700mb. Although dewpoints will only range in the
upper 30s to lower 40s, steep mid level lapse rates and modest
MUCAPE could range as high as 500-750 J/kg across portions of
southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. A mid level trough,
notable a 500mb, should aid in initiating widely scattered
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across
portions of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Deep layer
shear from 20 to 35kts is sufficient for weak, to a few
organized updrafts for stronger storms. Inverted- v sounding
support gusty winds as the primary threat. Any showers or storms
will quickly diminish after sunset.
Tonight, a fairly strong H85 thermal ridge (up to 20C) will develop
over western Nebraska, leading to a strong inversion. A light south
to southwest wind in the evening will increase to 10 to 20 mph after
midnight. Lows from the mid to upper 40s.
Sunday, much warmer with west to southwest winds. Highs 85 to 90. A
threat for a few strong to severe storms by late afternoon. A
surface trough may extend from near North Platte through Bassett and
Butte. 30 to 35kts of deep layer shear is shown to be closely
perpendicular to the surface boundary. MUCAPEs should reach 1500-
2000 J/kg across the southeastern zones. A few strong to severe
storms are possible late afternoon into early evening. Large hail
and damaging winds are the primary threats. SPC outlook for Sunday
has a Marginal Risk of severe storms east of the surface trough. The
location of the surface trough remains somewhat uncertain.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026
The upper level ridge for early in the week has become a
little more subtle with the latest model runs but still have
confidence that even with the subtle ridge will see a decent
southerly flow aiding in WAA across the region. 850 temps will
be quite warm around 20 to 25 degrees, with the cooler model
being the EC. Expect to have good mixing on Monday to tap into
the warm air aloft and still continue to have moderate
confidence in highs reaching the near or to 90 degrees, although
probs are low in seeing temperatures reaching beyond the 90
degree mark, leading to lower confidence in trending to the
warmer models at this time. Well mixed environment will also
lead to breezy winds in the afternoon as wind speeds aloft mix
to the sfc this will lead to winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up
to 30 mph. Will need to monitor for elevated to near critical
fire weather concerns, although we did see a decent amount of
rainfall Friday across some locations, mainly across southwest
Nebraska into portions of central Nebraska where some areas saw
0.50" to 1", there were still many locations that received 0.25"
or less, especially across the northern Sandhills into north
central Nebraska.
Could see even stronger winds for Tuesday with sustained winds
expected around 15 to 20 mph. Strongest winds will be out across
western Nebraska. Bufkit soundings across the western CWA show
decent strong winds aloft around 30kts, should see a mix to the
sfc to near 30 to 35 mph. For the start of the week conditions
will generally stay dry through mid-week then a more active
pattern with several disturbances moving through the area
bringing precipitation chances daily through Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across western and north central Nebraska through tomorrow
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening across the area, with a threat for brief MVFR
visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. Any lingering thunderstorms
quickly end after sunset.
Winds remain southwesterly into this evening, at 10 to 15kts.
Winds then become south overnight, remaining at 10 to 15kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion