892
FXUS63 KLBF 110638
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1238 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected through Thursday.

- After highs today in the upper 50s to middle 60s, a back door
  cold front tonight will push colder air into most of the
  forecast area for Thursday. Highs Thursday will range from the
  lower 40s in the northeast to the lower 60s in far SW
  Nebraska.

- As the back door front pushes into the forecast area tonight,
  there may be some fog development on the leading edge of the
  cold front.

- Low chances for showers across the south Saturday night into
  Sunday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

H5 pattern tonight had a fairly low amplitude pattern across
the CONUS. Shortwave disturbances were noted over northern
Texas, southern Utah and over central South Dakota. Further
north, ridging extended from northern Montana into eastern
portions of the NW Territories of Canada.WEst of this feature, a
closed low was present approximately 400 miles off the coast of
central British Columbia. A broad trough extended to the
southwest of this feature. Another closed low was located over
northern Quebec with a trough extending south into New England.
At the surface tonight, a weak frontal boundary extended from
western Kansas into far southeastern Nebraska. Winds were
westerly or northwesterly behind the front with southerly winds
south of the front. Skies were mainly clear overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The shortwave trough over central South Dakota will track
southeast into Iowa this morning with a deepening surface low
associated with this feature. High pressure over Colorado this
morning will put the forecast area in a decent surface pressure
gradient through early afternoon. The latest NBM ensembles have
a 70 to 90% chance of reaching 30 MPH wind gusts over the
Sandhills this afternoon. When this wind threshold is increased
to 35 MPH, probabilities drop considerably. GFS bufkit soundings
are indicative of wind gust potential in the 25 to 35 MPH range
peaking around noontime. Gust potential of 25 to 35 MPH is also
indicated in the 00z HRRR soln Wednesday afternoon. That being
said feel confident in the wind gust potential in the
initialized forecast. With highs in the lower to middle 60s and
minimum RH touching 30 percent this afternoon, we could see some
elevated fire weather concerns generally west of highway 83. A
secondary shortwave, will slide south from the Arrowhead of
Minnesota into southwestern Wisconsin tonight. This will force a
back door cold front into eastern, then central Nebraska
Thursday morning. On the leading edge of the cold air, some of
the short range guidance including the ConsShort and HRRR are
indicating the potential for fog on the leading edge of this
cold air. Looking at the NBM probabilities, only a small signal
exists for visby`s less than 5 miles Thursday morning. That
being said, will forgo fog mention for Thursday morning with
this forecast package, however, did advise the oncoming shift to
analyze this further as it may impact the 12z TAF forecast
later this morning. Low level cold air advection will continue
through midday Thursday across the eastern half of the forecast
area. By afternoon, the front will stall from west of Valentine
to around North Platte. High temperatures Thursday will struggle
to get out of the lower 40s over Holt and Boyd Counties. Highs
in the mid to upper 40s will align along a corridor from
Valentine to Broken Bow. West and southwest of the front, highs
Thursday will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s west of a
line from Merriman to North Platte.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A closed upper low will be centered over the Great Lakes
Thursday night with a large upper trough across the Eastern
CONUS. This upper trough will lift into the eastern Great Lakes
and New England by Saturday, as a negatively tilted upper trough
digs from the Pacific Northwest into the Central and Southern
Rockies. By Saturday night, a closed low is forecast to develop
over the Texas panhandle with showers developing across western
Kansas and eastern Colorado. Shower chances will increase across
the southern half of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts look
light from a trace up to 0.05 inch. On Sunday, shower chance
linger into the morning as the closed upper low moves east near
the KS/OK border. The bulk of the showers will remain to our
south across Kansas.

Highs Friday will range from the mid 40s far eastern areas to
the upper 50s far western Sandhills. On Saturday highs from 45
to 50 and upper 40s to around 50 Sunday. By Monday and Tuesday
upper ridging will traverse the region with dry conditions and
highs returning to the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions will persist the next 24 hours at the KLBF and
KVTN terminals. A few passing high clouds overnight into
Wednesday afternoon. A northwest wind overnight, mainly 10KT or
less. Northwest winds increase after 16Z to near 32012G22KT
diminishing to below 10KT by 23Z, then near calm winds
Wednesday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion