575
FXUS63 KLBF 210530
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1130 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Travel for the Christmas holiday period will likely see no
major interruptions with no precipitation expected through
the next 7+ days.
- After a relatively cooler day Saturday, the warmth rebounds
with well above normal (10F+) values expected each day
through Christmas including 25-35F above normal each day
Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
- The above normal temperatures with dry conditions will likely
lead to fire weather concerns, though winds appear to be the
limiting factor at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Afternoon satellite imagery depicts progressive high cloud cover
tracking west to east off the Front Range this morning. This is
occurring within enhanced zonal flow aloft. Cloud cover continues to
decrease in coverage however as drier air aloft works in from the
north. This should allow mostly sunny conditions for much of the
area this afternoon. Temperatures remain on the cooler side,
relatively speaking, with highs only in the lower 40s. This is
nearing 20-30F degrees cooler than the record and near-record values
seen yesterday. Winds were fairly light as well with all reporting
around 10 mph and only a few locations seeing gusts exceed 15 mph.
For tonight...the mostly sunny skies should gradually give way to
some increasing high level clouds tonight as a plume of richer
Pacific moisture crosses the Rockies. Winds back to the south as
surface high pressure passes by to the east. Even with a return to
southerly flow, any moderation of temperatures tonight would be
minimal. Leaned on NBM with a blend of MET/MAV statistical guidance
which produced upper teens in our far west and low to middle 20s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Dry weather continues through the upcoming forecast with
temperatures quickly climbing to well above normal values. This will
provide a largely unimpeded holiday travel time frame across the
region.
Low amplitude ridging across the Great Basin will translate east
across the Rockies and into the Central and Southern Plains as this
occurs, flow aloft will amplify as the dome of high pressure settles
over the Gulf. Southwesterly to westerly flow on the northwest
periphery of the upper-level high pressure will promote warming and
drying downslope flow for a few days. NAEFS guidance suggests a
quick climb on geopotential heights as well as temperatures aloft
within their respective percentile ranks, peaking late Monday
through Christmas Day (Thursday). ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
values continue to advertise strongly positive values in the 0.7-1.0
range each day Monday through Friday with non-zero Shift of Tails.
All this points to a highly anomalous warm streak with record high
temperatures threatened on multiple days. Deterministic NBM
temperatures flirt with or break record values for each day Monday,
Wednesday, and Thursday. Did opt to manually boost temperatures
Monday as inherited values undercut statistical MET/MAV guidance by
3-6F. Will leave extended temperatures alone but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests further boosts in the extended appear
probable. Overall, highs will easily reach the 50s with upper 60s
and possible 70s on the warmest days Monday, Wednesday, and
Thursday. Meanwhile, both EPS/GEFS probabilities suggest the area
remains under the influence of this strong high pressure aloft as
probabilities of h5 heights exceeding 576 dam remain at 100% for the
southern half of the CWA. These values exceed the 90th Percentile in
LBF upper-air radiosonde climatology for the month of December,
speaking to the magnitude of the ridge affecting much of the central
and southern CONUS. This will effectively promote dry weather and
keep the holiday travel period issue-free for the most part. It
isn`t until early the following week that ensemble solutions depict
a potential ridge breakdown with more seasonable temperatures and
precipitation potential.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Scattered to broken mid and high level cloudiness can be
expected from time to time through Sunday. VFR conditions will
prevail across all of the area. South winds will increase late
morning into the afternoon hours. Speeds will generally be in
the 10-20 kt range with higher gusts. Low-level wind shear
becomes a concern Sunday evening.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Forecast Highs/Record (year of last occurrence)
Mon Tue Wed Thu
12/22 12/23 12/24 12/25
North Platte 68/71(2024) 55/74(1964) 66/62(1922) 67/65(1999)
Valentine 69/70(1933) 54/68(1964) 68/59(1936) 65/65(1979)
Monthly Record High Temperature for December
North Platte 76 (12/06/1939)
Valentine 76 (12/11/1939)
While we aren`t forecasting setting a new record high for the month
at either of our primary climate sites, the overall pattern does
favor "overachieving" temperatures and so it bears watching over the
next week.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Taylor
CLIMATE...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion