904
FXUS63 KLBF 081937
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
237 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected this
  afternoon and evening/overnight across much of western and
  north central Nebraska

- Additional chances of isolated to scattered strong to severe
  thunderstorms Thursday


- Main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and heavy
  rainfall both today and Thursday

- Warmer temperatures this weekend into next week with highs
  reaching the mid to upper 90s

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The main concern in the short
term will be storm development this afternoon and evening/overnight
and again on Thursday. A frontal boundary will continue to sag
southward across the state and a trof moving in from the west, this
will become the focus for storm development. A few of the CAMs have
convection starting as early as 20z, which tend to favor this early
convective development given the environment and having seeing
already started to see some convective development across
northeastern NE and seeing some upscale growth on satellite. 0 to 6
km shear will increase through the afternoon with 35 to 40 kts
expected across the Sandhills. MUCAPE values increase to around
2500 to 3000 J/kg by late this afternoon. Moisture will be
abundant with dew points across the area in the 60s. Expect
storms to initially be discrete developing along the frontal
boundary and could see additional development from the higher
terrain across the Panhandle moving into the CWA. Expect that
the storms across western Nebraska may evolve into more bowing
segments with damaging wind gusts. The main hazards will be
strong, damaging winds and large hail, along with a threat for
heavy rainfall. SPC has highlighted western Nebraska generally
from a line near Pine Ridge to Tryon to North Platte to Curtis
and westward as the greatest threat to see the strongest,
damaging wind gusts.

There will be the potential for additional development of
thunderstorms later this evening, continuing into the overnight
hours as the LLJ increases, maintaining storm development and will
see the threat for heavy rainfall as PWATs increase greater than
1.50". The area of greatest concern will be along and south of
interstate 80 and points eastward into central Nebraska where a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall is possible, with portions of
eastern Lincoln, Custer and Frontier highlighted by a slight risk
for excessive rainfall. Expect any overnight thunderstorm activity
to end by the early morning hours on Thursday.


As for Thursday, there will be another chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms again in the afternoon and evening. Expect isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandle and move
into the area. 0 to 6 km shear will be around 30 kts across western
Nebraska with MUCAPE around 1500 to 2200 J/kg. This should be
sufficient enough to sustain a few isolated thunderstorms tomorrow
with the greatest threats being strong winds and large hail and a
secondary threat of heavy rainfall. Generally expect the greatest
threat for strong to severe storms to be along and west of a line
from HWY 83 westward.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

After Thursday, an upper level ridge will start to build in from the
west. Heading into the weekend as the ridge moves eastward
temperatures warm into the 90s on Saturday and Sunday. The upper
level ridge continues to build and move eastward becoming centered
over the Central Plains CONUS by early next week and remain
over the area through the late next week. Good signal continues
to show supporting temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions will largely be expected through the forecast period.

Cloud cover will clear out in exchange for generally clear skies
early Wednesday afternoon. North northeast winds will remain fairly
light, 5 - 10 kts through the day and into the evening. By mid to
late afternoon, scattered thunderstorms should develop out of the
west and introduce thicker mid to high level clouds. KLBF could some
impacts but confidence remains low enough that only a PROB30 has
been added to cover this. Guidance suggest that northern Nebraska
could see some IFR conditions early Thursday morning, but should
stay north of KLBF. By mid Thursday morning winds should shift to
more east southeasterly at 5 - 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...MRS

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion