025
FXUS63 KLBF 090545
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1145 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The combination of near record temperatures, dry conditions
and gusty west winds will lead to critical fire weather
concerns across portions of the Sandhills and western Nebraska
Monday.
- Mainly dry, only slight or low chance for any precipitation,
and above average temperatures look to persist Tuesday right
through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026
The primary concern for the short term will revolve around a threat
for critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon. Additional
details can be found in the fire weather section below.
For tonight, expect benign conditions as broad warm advection
persists through the overnight hours. By early tomorrow morning,
weak surface low pressure will move east across southern South
Dakota, dragging a surface trough through the Sandhills. Behind this
boundary, westerly winds strengthen by afternoon, leading to gusts
as high as 30 to 40 miles per hour across much of the western
Sandhills. This strengthening downslope flow will boost temperatures
aloft, with H85 temps exceeding the 99th percentile by tomorrow
afternoon. As ample mixing occurs across the area, highs will soar
into the middle to upper 70s near and south of the HWY 2 corridor.
Further north, a cold front will begin to move into the area by late
afternoon, and this should bring just enough cold advection to keep
highs in the low to middle 60s.
Of greatest concern, the near record temperatures will combine with
dry conditions and push humidity values into the teens across much
of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. The aforementioned
mixing also looks ample to tap into higher momentum flow aloft,
and promote gusts increasing to as high as 30 to 40 miles per
hour across the western Sandhills. The extent of the highest
gusts remains somewhat low confidence, though 25 to 30 looks to
be a good bet for much of the Sandhills into portions of central
Nebraska. With this all in mind, have opted for a Red Flag
Warning for much of western Nebraska and the Sandhills tomorrow.
Opted for an earlier start to headlines (15Z) due to very poor
overnight humidity recovery. This should lead to a quick onset
of critical humidity with the west winds already strengthening
by late morning. This combination of low humidity and gusty west
winds look favorable for rapid fire spread and growth. Add in
an abrupt west to north wind shift by early evening, and
concerns further increase.
The cold front quickly pushes through the area from north to south,
with a brief period of gusty winds with its passage as it clears the
area shortly after sunset. This increased cold advection pushes lows
into the 20s, though winds look to remain breezy through the night
with increased mechanical mixing expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026
Surface high pressure will be located across the area Tuesday in
the wake of Monday night`s cold frontal passage. Although
temperatures will be cooler Tuesday behind the front, they will
still be a few degrees above average, with highs ranging from
the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Wednesday into Thursday expect a gradual transition toward more
of a zonal flow. Heights will begin to rise across the Plains as
the surface high shifts east of the area. Gusty south winds will
develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the high, with
highs remaining above average Wednesday in the lower to middle
50s. A weak shortwave will skirt eastward across the Northern
Plains Thursday. This will drive a weak Pacific cold front
southeast through the area with a wind shift to the northwest.
There will be a slight to low chance for some very light
precipitation, but no beneficial amounts are expected.
Attention turns to an upper level shortwave that will be moving
across the western CONUS late in the week. It appears that most
of this energy will cross the Southern Plains during the
weekend, largely keeping our area dry. Temperatures appear to
remain above normal as well right though the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026
VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all of western
and north central Nebraska through Monday evening. Surface
winds will be light tonight. Winds will become gusty from the
west, then northwest Monday afternoon, especially across the
Sandhills and north central Nebraska, where gust of 25 to 30kts
are expected. Winds turn northerly Monday evening, with gusts
to 25kts for a few hours behind the cold front.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of western
Nebraska and the Sandhills Monday afternoon. Temperatures will again
soar to near record values (highs in the 70s) across much of western
and southwest Nebraska tomorrow. This will combine with dry
conditions and push humidity values into the teens tomorrow
afternoon. Also of note, very poor overnight recovery is expected
tonight, with maximum humidity values only 45 to 60% across much of
the area. As west winds begin to strengthen across western
Nebraska by late tomorrow morning, critical fire conditions are
expected to develop rapidly. With this in mind, have opted for
an early start to fire weather headlines, as early as 8 AM MST/9
AM CST. Westerly gusts strengthen to as high as 30 to 40 miles
per hour across the Sandhills tomorrow afternoon.
By late tomorrow afternoon, a cold front will enter northern
Nebraska and quickly move south across the area by late evening.
This will lead to an abrupt wind shift from west to north, along
with increasing north winds with its passage. This would be of
concern with any new fire starts tomorrow afternoon, adding
confidence to a period of critical fire concerns tomorrow.
Temperatures then cool back into the upper 40s to 50s each day for
middle to late week. This will keep humidity values above critical
thresholds, though winds do look to increase from the south on
Wednesday. Lessening fire concerns are expected beyond tomorrow,
though trends will continue to be monitored. This is especially true
with widespread wetting moisture not expected over the next
week.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Monday for NEZ204-206.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion