827
FXUS63 KLBF 062311
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
611 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm and dry conditions are expected through the upcoming
weekend.
- Deeper troughing will form over the western CONUS by early
next week and should lead to a pattern change that includes
cooler temperatures and modest precipitation potential.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
This afternoon, sunny skies helped promote very warm temperatures
across the area. As of ~3pm CDT, the North Platte Airport had hit
92F which sets a new record high for the day. This will likely
become official with the climate reports tonight. Elsewhere,
temperatures were generally in the middle 80s. These values were 15-
20F above normal for early October and were just another instance of
the late summer-like heat seen in early October. Winds will light
and variable across the area with speeds at or below 15 mph for all
locations and many locations even reporting calm conditions.
For tonight...another quiet night is likely for much of the Central
High Plains. Various high resolution guidance including HREF
probabilistic data suggests another potential for valley fog
affecting the Platte River system. Typically bullish guidance,
notably the NAM12 solution, does not support this idea however so
will keep mention out for now. With reinforcing dry air in the mid-
levels and the expected light winds, believe temperatures will again
fall in a good radiational cooling setup. Low temperatures lean
heavily on MET/METBC guidance which supports middle 40s west to
lower 50s east. Even these "cooler" values remain above
climatological norms for early October, further adding to the mild
start to the month.
Wednesday/Wednesday Night...modest high pressure will settle south
across the Northern Plains. This will push a backdoor front into the
area and introduce a slight cooldown in the area. Afternoon highs
should only climb to the middle 70s to middle 80s range, warmest in
the southwest. Light winds will again offset any concerning humidity
minimums in the afternoon thus limiting fire concerns. There
continues to be a slight wrinkle worth watching late Wednesday
night. As high pressure continues to shift south into South Dakota,
easterly flow will become established locally. This will increase
convergence in an area of more southerly flow to the southwest. The
NAM12 solution continues to suggest that within this area of
convergence, scattered rain and thunderstorms will develop. The
NAM12 appears to be the only promoter of this with other CAM and
synoptic solutions showing little to no activity. The forecast
remains dry for the time frame but PoPs continue to be in the 10-14%
range or the highest values that allow a dry forecast. With the
expected increasing clouds, whether precipitation related or not,
milder temperatures appear possible though above normal values are
still expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Low amplitude ridging will remain in place at the beginning of the
mid-range period. With deep troughing over the Hudson Bay, a strong
northern stream jet will stretch from the Canadian Rockies through
the Great Lakes. Longwave troughing will eventually contribute to
ridge breakdown Friday/Saturday, though mild temperatures will
persist. NBM highlights fairly high confidence in continued
anomalous warmth with inner-quartile ranges decreasing from 5F on
Thursday to 2F by Friday and 4F for Saturday. This suggests a low
variation in potential outcomes highlighted by NWP guidance thus the
higher confidence. Though height falls will overspread the area this
weekend as southwesterly flow becomes reestablished, precipitation
prospects remain fairly poor through the weekend. This is because
the aforementioned longwave will continue to dig south along the
West Coast with a deep cutoff low taking shape by Sunday/Monday.
This cutoff will then stall with shortwave ridging then building
across the Central and Southerns Plains. The result will be warmer
weather lingering a bit longer into the mid-range forecast.
Precipitation probabilities continue to slowly trend down as upper-
level dynamics largely miss the area to the northwest. This limits
PoPs to around 30% or less, focused across the Sandhills up towards
the Pine Ridge through Monday. Confidence for Monday and beyond
remains quite low as evolution of the upper-level low is fairly
uncertain. Deterministic solutions from the ECMWF/GFS both lift it
north and east, crossing the Central Rockies sometime
Wednesday/Thursday. While moisture should increase in the lead-up to
arrival of this disturbance, ensembles paint fairly modest
precipitable water values in the lead up to stronger synoptic lift.
This may hinder precipitation efficiency and subsequently, amounts.
EPS/GEFS probabilities are noisy though the majority (90% of
members) show at least measurable rain around the middle of the
week. Day-to-day predictability will likely remain poor until at
least the upcoming weekend so continue to check with later forecasts
for details.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska through tomorrow evening. Winds become light
and variable overnight, at 5kts or less. Winds then become
northerly tomorrow afternoon, at 5 to 15kts as high cloudiness
overspreads the area.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion