FXUS63 KLBF 211813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
113 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Precipitation chances will be the main focus the next 24 hrs across
western and north central Nebraska. An upper level trough of low
pressure will be digging into the central Rockies today. A lead wave
will eject northeast into the Central Plains today through Monday
ahead of this feature. This will induce leeward cyclogenesis across
northeast Colorado this morning, with an inverted trough extending
northeast from the low across central Nebraska into southeast South
Dakota. The surface low will migrate toward north central Kansas by
late this afternoon, with the inverted trough moving into eastern
Nebraska. Decent low level moisture with near 60F dew points will
advect northward along and east of the inverted trough. Most Hi-Res
models indicate surface based thunderstorm development will occur
across very far eastern portions of western and north central
Nebraska along the trough. Some of these storms may be strong to
marginally severe and would mostly remain southeast of line from
O`Neill to Broken Bow to Curtis.

The concern for areas farther west will be any shower/thunder
development behind the surface trough. This activity would be
elevated and likely non-severe. Appears that showers with some
embedded  thunder will develop in an upslope environment across
northern Colorado, with this activity moving east and northeast into
portions of southwest Nebraska during the evening. Will increase
pops some across southwest Nebraska as most models indicate this
scenario. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the rest of western and north central Nebraska as
the lead wave will centered over the area. Most models show an
increase in activity across northern Nebraska this evening, and the
likely pops in place look good.

Have lowered pops some and ended earlier across western Nebraska on
Monday as the wave will be pushing into Iowa. Quite windy conditions
are expected on the back side of the system, with northerly wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph. Cool conditions are anticipated as well,
with highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

The Rockies upper low will dig southeast into Texas TUE thru THU.
Any precipitation associated with this is expected to remain well
south of the area. A few light showers will be possible across
our area with a separate northern stream shortwave Wednesday night
thru Friday. Moisture will be limited during this time as Gulf
moisture will be directed toward the southeast CONUS ahead of the
TX system.

Highs this week will be seasonal to above average for the upcoming
week. Highs Tuesday will be in the 60s, with mainly 70s WED thru


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2019

A cold front has drifted just south, about out of the local
forecast area, and extends from near roughly Trenton to Ord to
Verdigre. Latest radar display shows isolated-scattered light
rain showers across parts of the eastern Panhandle and northwest
NEB. Latest surface obs show IFR to MVFR ceilings in this area as
well, elsewhere partly to mostly sunny with some middle and high
clouds. Current thinking is potential starts for isolated showers
and thunderstorms generally outside northwest NEB after 21Z today
but more so between 00Z to 06Z Monday. Threat for showers will
then continue afterwards mainly across the Sandhills and north
central NEB. Meanwhile, ceilings will deteriorate from northwest
NEB to south late afternoon-late evening wherein mainly IFR is
expected across Sandhills north with MVFR elsewhere.




LONG TERM...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion