411
FXUS63 KLBF 260753
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
253 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off rain showers are expected to continue throughout
  the day, with rain stopping later this evening. Some snow may
  mix in with the showers early this morning across northwest
  Nebraska, though no accumulations are expected.

- Dry and warmer weather returns towards the middle of the week
  with daytime highs in the 60s to near 70F.

- More unsettled weather arrives this weekend and continues into
  early next week as deep troughing develops across the western
  CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The upper level low that has been the main feature of our weather
pattern this weekend remains over the Four Corners region this
morning. Throughout the day, this low will gradually lift to the
north-northeast with the system eventually tracking out of the
region this evening. As this occurs, expecting the same plume of
Pacific moisture will remain in place, bringing rain showers across
the region through the evening. With general upper level flow coming
from the southwest, expecting a continued push of rain showers from
the southwest, as well. Although there may be a few breaks in the
showers today, mostly expecting dreary fall conditions. Highs likely
struggle to get out of the 40s across northwest Nebraska and
portions of the Sandhills, with the rest of the region potentially
breaking into the 50s. Skies are also expected to remain overcast,
with some potential for patchy fog between rain showers, given the
ample humidity and cool conditions.

One other thing to keep an eye on will be the potential for our
first few snowflakes this season across portions of northwest
Nebraska early this morning. As rain showers continue to lift to the
north, there may be sufficient overlap with colder temperatures to
allow for some snowflakes to mix into the precipitation, mainly in
northern Sheridan and portions of northwest Cherry counties.
Guidance continues to suggest a pocket of cooler than freezing
temperatures aloft across northwest Nebraska, as well as a few hours
right around the freezing mark at the surface, which does further
increase this chance. However, given that soil temperatures remain
generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s, do not think that any snow
that forms will be capable of accumulating. More or less, just
something to be on the lookout for early this morning, especially
after sunrise and potentially into the morning commute.

By the evening, as the upper level low ejects from the region,
expect that rain showers will stop, leaving a dry night. Cloud cover
is expected to stick around however, which will limit the ability
for temperatures to completely cool off overnight. With this in
mind, gave overnight lows a slight nudge warmer, but still generally
expect to see overnight lows Monday night around the freezing mark
across most of the region. Will be keeping an eye out for potential
fog development, given the very moist environment combined with
light surface winds. However, still will be assessing this over the
next forecast cycle, as confidence is not quite high enough one way
or the other.

By Tuesday, the northern jet stream is expected to track an upper
level shortwave across North Dakota, with a surface low tracking
across central South Dakota. As far as precipitation is concerned,
not expecting any across western and north central Nebraska at this
time. Rather, the low pressure system should make for some stronger
southerly winds on Tuesday, potentially gusty at times. Latest
thinking is the stronger winds will mostly remain along and north of
Highway 2, with peak gusts around 30 mph. Should also see some more
seasonal highs on Tuesday, generally in the lower 60s. For
reference, out typical highs for this week are right around 58 to 61
degrees, so about on track for late October. However, by Tuesday
night, mostly cloudy skies and elevated dew points are expected to
keep us slightly warmer than usual, with lows dropping into the
upper 30s to lower 40s. This is expected to usher in another round
of our unusually warm nights this fall. On a typical year, our lows
in late October would drop to the upper 20s, however, the overnight
dew points have generally kept us well above this mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Strong northern stream jet will settle across the northern Rockies
with low amplitude ridging over the Southeast leading to
southwesterly flow aloft. More benign weather arrives towards the
mid week as subtle heights build in and the early week disturbance
lifts up into eastern Canada. Temperatures should recover to above
normal values, 60s to near 70F or 10 to 15F above normal for late
October, for most locations across central and western Nebraska.
Deep troughing will again dig south along the West Coast by late
week with a cutoff upper low taking shape. This should lead to more
amplified southwesterly flow locally with multiple shortwaves
crossing the central and southern Rockies in the days 5-10
timeframe. As such, PoPs initialized from the model blend show a
marked increase into the weekend with even higher values early next
week. The latter of these align with the eventual progression of the
longwave trough through the Intermountain West towards the Plains.
While the GEFS output is fairly noisy with greater uncertainty in
timing, the EPS is much more confident in seeing local impacts
maximized late Monday into early Tuesday (Day 8/9). Overall though,
any impacts appear likely to favor primarily rain with any wintry
concerns limited to colder overnights. This is due to a lack of
Artic air and, most significantly, no noteworthy Canadian high
pressure that is typical with our bigger winter events. Details are
far from certain so continue to check with subsequent forecasts for
the latest.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Prevailing IFR with periodic LIFR conditions are likely for much
of the upcoming forecast period.

Low stratus with fog/mist, eventually giving way to light rain,
will impact much of the area. Impacts should be great at area
terminals with high probabilities (60%+) of IFR conditions at
both KLBF and KVTN through at least midday Monday. Some guidance
hints at subtle improvements in the afternoon, perhaps leading
to a brief return to MVFR, but guidance is split and thus
confidence is low. Late in the period, skies should begin to
clear up but to what extent and precise timing remains
uncertain.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion