142
FXUS63 KLBF 221801
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
101 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to high confidence in severe thunderstorm potential late
  this afternoon and evening.

- Low to moderate confidence in light precipitation arriving
  Thursday evening across the Pine Ridge and spreading southeast
  throughout the night.

- Precipitation chances continue to look favorable Friday night
  through the weekend. Beneficial amounts continue to look more
  favorable.

- Wet snow is possible Sunday, mainly across far northwest
  Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The main weather story in the short term will be the development of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An upper level
trough and resulting frontal boundary will push through the region
will help to initiate thunderstorms as early as mid-afternoon across
the Panhandle and into the Sandhills. While low level moisture will
become limited across portions of this region early afternoon, there
is indication that a surge of higher dewpoints just ahead of the
front. This should provide enough moisture to get convection
developing. Still there is some concern on location of initiation
which may determine how much of north central Nebraska is affected.
At this time, there will be a ribbon of higher instability across
the eastern Panhandle where the greatest confidence is expected for
development. This is also the area where the surge of higher
moisture will be, adding to confidence in initiation in this area.
Storms will be mainly discrete supercells with the potential for
gusty winds being the main threat. With limited QPF from these
storms (a tenth or less) there is also a concern for some dry
lightning. This could be potentially problematic for fire concerns
especially in areas that have not received much moisture over the
last week or so and where green-up is slow to start this spring.
Instability will wane as the evening progresses with the best
potential for severe storms being between 01Z and 05Z. As storms
push east into the early Thursday morning hours and encounter a less
stable environment, they will diminish and outside of some few
lingering showers, the severe threat is not anticipated to prevail
much past 06Z.

Heading into Thursday, a return to drier conditions is expected
behind the departing front. Still, lingering lower level moisture
should keep the majority of Thursday under cloudy or mostly cloudy
skies. Some mild cold air advection from the north into the region
will also result in some cooler temperatures for Thursday. Expect
highs to range from the upper 60s in the Pine Ridge to the mid 70s
into portions of central Nebraska.

The next chance for light precipitation will occur when a weak
trough moves into western South Dakota and into northwest Nebraska
Thursday night. Current thinking is that precipitation will push
into northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge by Thursday evening
starting as all rain. However, as temperatures fall to near and
below freezing overnight, rain will change over to a rain/snow mix
and even all snow in some of the higher terrain. Little to no
accumulations are expected, though. Precipitation will continue to
push southeast through sunrise Friday morning, with any precip
outside of the Pine Ridge region remaining as all liquid.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A deep upper level low pressure system will be centered across
southern Canada on Friday. An embedded shortwave will rotate around
the low across the northern/central Rockies during the day and
emerge into the Central Plains Friday night. Expecting at least
scattered shower development Friday afternoon into Friday night as
ascent increases. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in some weak
elevated CAPE, and could see an isolated thunderstorm or two along
with the shower activity Friday night.

The southern Canada upper low will weaken as it shifts
northeastward during the day Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper level
trough will moving onshore the west coast, with flow aloft becoming
southwest across our area. A warm front develops eastward across
Kansas from a deepening eastern Colorado surface through the day
Saturday. Moisture availability looks favorable Saturday night
through Sunday. Strong Gulf moisture advection will be underway
Saturday and Saturday night across the Southern Plains. The warm
front will nudge northward some into southern Nebraska during the
day Sunday. Moist southeast upslope flow will combine with strong mid-
level FGEN, and brings what looks to be a decent precipitation event
Saturday night though Sunday. ENS mean probabilities for at least one
half inch of QPF have continued to increase, with the latest 22/00Z
suite giving a 60-80% chance across the heart of the Sandhills into
central and north central Nebraska. Across western into southwest
Nebraska the chances diminish slightly but still look favorable
(above 50%). GEFS is similar, and in the same location, which leads
to a continued increase in confidence that a soaking rainfall looks
probable. As far as the wet snow potential, ensemble probabilities
are moderately high for 1-2" of wet snow accumulation, most likely
across far northwest Nebraska especially in and bear the Pine Ridge.

Monday into Tuesday of next week, the pattern appears to remain
unsettled. Near or below freezing temperatures are expected Monday
morning west of Highway 83. This will be the result of strong cold
air advection behind a cold front that dives southeast through the
area early Monday morning. At least a slight chance for showers
continues both Monday and Tuesday...as a couple of weak disturbances
follow in the wake of the Saturday night and Sunday system. Highs
will moderate by Tuesday after a chilly breezy/windy day Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Winds will be gusty out of the south with gusts of 40 kts or
greater this afternoon. Winds will still remain gusty this
evening, with 20 kts sustained and gusts around 30 kts. Winds
will then switch to the west northwest overnight with winds
around 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts. There will be some
LLWS across the northern Sandhills, including KVTN terminal with
winds above the sfc around 40 kts for a few hours, generally
midnight through the early morning hours. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon and evening across western
Nebraska and the Sandhills. Additional thunderstorms will may
also be possible around midnight with erratic strong winds
possible, and may impact KVTN terminal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north
central Nebraska today. Gusty south winds, up to 45 mph, will
combine with very warm temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90
degrees. Although Gulf moisture/humidity will be returning
northward into the area, initially, it will be shallow, and dew
points will mix out during the late morning through mid afternoon
before the deeper moisture arrives by evening. Lowest humidity
values will range from 10-15% across western Nebraska, up to
18-25% across central and into north central Nebraska. In
addition, the potential for dry lightning late this afternoon and
into this evening, mainly west of Highway 83 with any initial
isolated thunderstorm development. This threat should wane this
evening as higher humidity/dew points arrive on gusty south to
southeast winds. Also, very strong, possibly damaging wind gusts
will be possible near or in any thunderstorm late this afternoon
and evening.

A wind shift occurs overnight tonight as a cold front/dry line
quickly moves eastward across the area. Winds shift to the west-
northwest as this passes. This sets the stage for more low
humidity and gusty west-northwest winds during the Thursday.
Likely will see critical conditions over most if not all of the
area on Thursday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM
MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion