000
FXUS63 KLBF 232030
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

H5 analysis this morning had a ridge of high pressure ext
ending from the central plains northwest into the southern Yukon. A
closed low was noted over the Gulf of Alaska with a trough extending
south southeast to a point 300-400 miles off the coast of Oregon.
East of this feature, shortwaves were noted over northern Utah and
off the southern California coast. Low pressure was noted north of
Quebec with a trough extending south into the Mid Atlantic states.
At the surface: High pressure was noted over eastern North Dakota
this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient was noted across the
Nebraska Panhandle and western Sandhills this afternoon. This has
led to increased southerly winds across the western half of the
forecast area. Wind speeds this afternoon ranged from light
southeasterly at O`Neill to southeasterly at 15 to 25 MPH at Gordon
and Valentine. Temperatures at 2 PM CDT under mostly clear skies,
ranged from 59 degrees at O`Neill to 64 degrees at Valentine,
Gordon, North Platte and Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

The threat for precipitation and its timing will be the main
forecast concern in the near term. For Tonight:
The shortwave trough, currently off the southern California coast,
will track across the desert southwest overnight, making it into
New Mexico by 12z Wednesday. Downstream of this feature, a surface
trough of low pressure will deepen tonight, leading to increasing
southerly winds overnight. The increased southerly winds along
with moisture advection and increasing cloud cover, will boost
temperatures tonight with lows in the lower to middle 40s. With
respect to precipitation tonight:
Based on the latest HRRR, GFS, NAM12, and WARW, went ahead and
slowed down the onset of precipitation in swrn Nebraska to 12z
Wednesday morning, as the models have trended slower with lifting
the shortwave trough across the southwestern CONUS. The threat for
precipitation will increase quickly Wednesday morning, from
southwestern into north central Nebraska as strong lift commences
in advance of the approaching shortwave from the southern plains.
Ongoing forecast had a good handle on the precipitation chances
and have made some minor cosmetic changes to the grids to blend
with the neighboring offices. The NAM12 solution this morning does
indicate some instability developing tomorrow morning from the
swrn forecast area into western portions of the Sandhills, so
wouldn`t be surprised if we some QPF`s approaching a half to three
quarters of an inch with this system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Precipitation will slowly shift
east into central and eastern portions of the forecast area
Wednesday night. Clearing in the west, will lead to lows in the 30s
Wednesday night, while readings will be in the lower to middle 40s
in the east, where clouds and precipitation will linger. The
shortwave trough will exit eastern portions of the forecast area
Thursday morning. Subsidence behind the exiting shortwave, will lead
to mainly dry conditions across the forecast area Thursday. Highs
will range from the upper 50s in the east where clouds will linger,
to the mid to upper 60s in the western forecast area where mainly
clear skies are expected. Northwesterly flow aloft will commence
across the area Thursday night into Friday. Did keep the forecast
dry even in light of the GFS solution forcing a weak shortwave
through the forecast area Thursday night into Friday. This feature
was absent from the latest NAM12 soln. With much drier air pushing
into the area behind the initial shortwave, felt a dry forecast was
warranted here for now. Mainly dry and seasonal conditions will
carry over into the weekend and early next week as northwesterly
flow aloft continues. The next outside chance for precipitation will
be Saturday night into Sunday as a Pacific cold front pushes through
the forecast area. ATTM, the bulk of the forcing with this front and
shortwave is across northern into eastern Nebraska. Will keep pops
fairly low and not stray too far from the Superblend guidance. Highs
will generally be seasonal with readings in the 60s, except behind
the front Sunday, with highs in the lower to middle 50s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Quiet aviation conditions expected over the several hours as high
pressure moves out of the region. Clear to mostly clear skies are
expected at both KVTN and KLBF with VFR conditions continuing
through the evening and early Wednesday timeframe. Rain showers are
possible towards sunrise Wednesday morning. Rain will quickly be out
of the region by Wednesday afternoon.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion