672
FXUS63 KLBF 231127
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected early this
morning through early afternoon across portions of the Sandhills and
central Nebraska. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and
strong winds as the primary threats.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again this
evening, though any redevelopment is uncertain due to this
morning`s thunderstorms.

- A threat for thunderstorms will persist into late week and the
weekend. The threat for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Currently, scattered thunderstorms persist across portions of the
northern Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. These
thunderstorms are at the nose of a strengthening low level jet,
which is centered over eastern Colorado northwards into the southern
Nebraska Panhandle. This activity is expected to persist through
much of the night, as the low level jet maximum slowly moves east
towards southwest Nebraska with time. Widespread thunderstorms are
expected to overspread the Sandhills prior to sunrise, and persist
into early afternoon as they move east into central Nebraska. This
will also promote increasing MUCAPE through the early morning hours,
to as much as ~1500-2000J/kg across much of southwest Nebraska and
the Sandhills. The environment remains strongly sheared aloft as
well, with forecast soundings indicating long and straight
hodographs with height. The combination of ample elevated
instability and deep layer shear will lead to a threat for a few
strong to severe storms overnight, with large hail being the primary
threat. Depending on the strength of the low level inversion, a few
instances of strong winds cannot be ruled out as well. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be a threat overnight and into tomorrow
morning, as training thunderstorms are possible amid PWAT values
approaching the 90th percentile climo. Any instances of flash
flooding will likely be confined to areas of central Nebraska, where
flash flood guidance is lowest locally.

The early day thunderstorms casts significant uncertainty
on any severe weather later this afternoon and evening, though
trends will continue to be monitored. Should airmass recovery occur
today, though the strong deep layer shear in place suggest some
threat for supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging
winds yet again across the area. The more likely scenario is for any
severe thunderstorms this evening to remain off to the south of the
area across northeastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Another round of scattered thunderstorms is possible overnight into
Wednesday morning, though the low level jet looks to remain focused
off to the south of the area. Another round of convection then looks
to come off the high terrain Wednesday evening, with some threat for
large hail and damaging winds to extend into southwest Nebraska by
late Wednesday evening. Any severe threat Wednesday looks to largely
remain confined to areas of the southern Panhandle and far southwest
Nebraska at this time, with instability quickly waning with
northeast extent into the Sandhills and central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The active weather looks to persist into the long term period, as
the broad and strong northwest flow continues into late week across
much of the Plains. Though mesoscale details will need to be
resolved with respect to threats late week, ample instability will
overlap adequate deep layer shear for organized updrafts both
Thursday and Friday. Some threat for convection originating in the
higher terrain and moving east into western Nebraska late evening
appears plausible both days.

A deeper upper trough then begins to traverse into the Pacific
Northwest by this weekend, finally reaching the northern Plains by
early Monday morning. Ahead of this trough, increasing moisture
advection will pull much deeper surface moisture northwards into the
area, as high as the upper 60s to lower 70s in some guidance
solutions. This should lead to very strong instability across the
area, and with it at least some threat for thunderstorms. Guidance
differs with respect to the placement of surface boundaries, which
is to be expected at this range. Regardless, trends will need to be
monitored for a continued threat for severe weather into this
weekend, as the deep upper trough slowly moves east into the
northern Plains. Confidence wanes as we head into early next week,
as the aforementioned upper trough moves off to the north into
Canada. Some guidance has begun to hint at strengthening upper
riding across the central CONUS by middle to late next week, though
confidence in this remains low for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are tracking across western and north
central Nebraska this morning, bringing low end VFR to IFR
conditions. Thunderstorm activity is expected to track east along a
cold front and clear out of most of the region by around noon,
though showers may linger. Behind the front, stratus is expected to
remain across the region, leaving low end VFR to MVFR ceilings
throughout the day. By the evening, skies eventually clear across
northern Nebraska, with stratus remaining across the southwest.
Winds are also expected to shift around with the frontal passage,
eventually becoming northwesterly to westerly by the late afternoon
and evening, though winds are generally expected to remain lighter
than 10 knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion