914
FXUS63 KLBF 192340
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in hot, above normal temperatures through Monday
with highs and heat indicies across north central approaching or
exceeding 100 degrees.

- Moderate to high confidence in return to cooler temperatures
Tuesday through Friday

- Moderate confidence in near-daily thunderstorm potential Tuesday
through Thursday.

- Low confidence in a return to hot temperatures next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Little changes have been made to the going forecast for the short
term. Extreme heat across the region will remain the main concern as
upper level ridging and strong surface high pressure remains over
the central US. Warm air advection is currently pushing warmer 850mb
temperatures in the 30 to 35 C range into the region resulting in
surface highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. These very warm
temperatures will create heat indicies in the 100 to 105 range mid
to late afternoon, especially on Monday where these 100 degree plus
heat indicies become widespread throughout the region. Heat
advisories remain in place across the region both today (across
northern Nebraska) and Monday (the entire forecast area).

Regarding precipitation, it will be a mostly dry forecast through
Monday night. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are still
expected late this afternoon and into early evening across portions
of northwestern Nebraska. Confidence remains relatively low on
development and locations of impact, however, enough of the CAMs
suggest some isolated storms to warrant at least a mention of them
in the forecast. Any storms tonight will be mainly confined to South
Dakota and any development in northwest Nebraska should be
relatively short lived with the severe threat low. There is also
some low precip chances on Monday evening with a frontal passage.
While there will be ample instability across the region Monday
afternoon/evening, limited moisture will be present. Any
thunderstorms that do develop will likely be confined to the higher
terrain of the Panhandle and be fairly isolated in nature. Again,
not expecting severe thunderstorms, but a few stronger storms could
be possible on Monday especially west of Highway 61.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

On Tuesday, the cold front passage will allow for some cooler air to
begin to push into the region for the middle of the week lasting
through the end of the week. Highs will range from the mid 80s
across northern Nebraska to the low 90s south of I-80 on Tuesday.
Temperatures continue to plummet through the week dropping into the
low to mid 80s for most locations through Friday. A few isolated
locations could even drop into the upper 70s across extreme north
central Nebraska, or rise into the low 90s across southwest
Nebraska. Heading into next weekend, another surge of warm air will
push back into the region resulting in highs returning to the mid
90s to low 100s by next Saturday and Sunday. Will continue to
monitor this trend over the next week as heat headlines may be
necessary once again.

As the pattern begins to shift, there will also be a
return to moisture and precipitation chances. With upper level
ridging across the western US, a series of disturbances will pivot
across the central Plains. This will bring near daily rain and
thunderstorm chances to the region through Thursday evening. A brief
break may be possible on Friday and into the weekend, but some
models suggest at least some isolated activity through the weekend.
While not anticipating widespread severe thunderstorms at this time,
some stronger to briefly severe thunderstorms may be possible across
the region. Will continue to monitor the severe potential over the
next several days and make adjustments to the forecast as
needed.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will persist through most of the forecast period.
There are some isolated showers and thunderstorms that are
moving across the northern Sandhills and could briefly impact
KVTN terminal this evening, lowering visibility briefly with
some moderate rainfall as the shower/thunderstorm passes. Shower
and thunderstorm potential will diminish by late evening. Winds
will remain breezy out of the south this evening into the
overnight around 5 to 15 kts with gusts up to 22kts. Winds will
then begin to switch to the northeast in the late morning and
afternoon for areas of the central and northern Sandhills into
north central Nebraska with a frontal passage. Where the front
stalls tomorrow there will be the potential for some isolated
thunderstorms, at this time have left the mention out of the
KLBF taf as uncertainty remains on the placement of the front.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ004>010-
026>029-094.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion