830
FXUS63 KLBF 031155
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
655 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across
southwest Nebraska
- Precipitation across portions of the Sandhills into northern
Nebraska, light snow possible across far northern Nebraska
tonight
- Very warm temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the 70s to
low 80s, with gusty winds
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Today through Saturday...Upper level low pressure will
track from northeastern Wyoming into south central South Dakota
today. In advance of this feature, mid level warm air advection will
lift across the northeastern forecast area this morning with a
threat for precipitation across the northern third of the forecast
area. Later this afternoon, the threat for precipitation will
increase across northwestern Nebraska, transitioning east tonight as
favorable lift wraps around the western and southwestern periphery
of the exiting low. As for precipitation types, temperatures will
remain warm enough today to facilitate all liquid precipitation.
With cooler air being drawn south behind the exiting system tonight,
there will be an increased threat for light snow over northwestern
Nebraska. Looking at the ensemble NBM QPF probabilities, the threat
for precipitation > 0.10" is less than 50 percent and confined to
northern portions of Sheridan county and far NW Cherry County. With
temperatures forecast to be in the upper 20s to around 30 in these
areas-coenciding with the best lift, would yield around an inch of
snow (10:1 ratio). That being said, even with some local enhancement
in the Pine Ridge, 1 to 2 inches is on the high end of snow accums
tonight. Further east, a dusting to under an inch is possible
generally along the NE/SD border. The threat for precipitation will
Shift northeast of the area overnight with dry conditions expected
for Saturday. Highs today will reach the middle 40s in the north
with lower 60s in far SW Nebraska. Lows tonight will be in the mid
to upper 20s with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 40s to mid
60s.
Later this morning, winds will shift to the west and northwest
across the southwestern half of the forecast area behind a warm
front. This feature will make it as far east as central Nebraska
this afternoon. West of the front, in addition to windy conditions,
afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s to lower 60s. The westerly
winds behind the warm front, will also usher in very dry boundary
layer air with afternoon RH reaching 15 to 20 percent generally
south of Interstate 80. Looking at the latest NBM ensembles, there
is a near 100 percent chance for wind gusts exceeding 25 MPH south
of a line from Antioch to North Platte this afternoon. When the
threshold is increased to 35 MPH, there is a 60 to 80% chance of
exceedance south of the before mentioned line. That being said, gusts
in the 25 to 40 MPH range seem probable from the eastern Panhandle,
southeast into SW Nebraska and will lead to at least near critical
and critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area later
today. More about that in the fire section below. Later tonight, a
cold front will be forced through the forecast area leading to gusty
winds overnight. This will be followed by a warm front pushing into
SW Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Once again, gusty winds will develop
from the eastern Panhandle into SW Nebraska. Forecast min RH is
forecast to be around 5 percent higher than this afternoon`s
forecast and with wind gusts not quite as strong, feel critical fire
danger will be harder to achieve Saturday afternoon. However, near
critical conditions appear likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
A ridge develops across the western CONUS on Sunday and
will see highs warm into the 60s for Sunday. A weak sw trof comes
through early Monday with a low chance of precipitation and
will also cool temperatures slighting with highs in the 40s and
50s. This will bring temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees cooler
than normal for this time of year. At this time precipitation
chances are around 25 percent or less, however probabilistic
models suggest any precipitation would be very light as
probability of qpf values greater than 0.05" is less than 15
percent. Temperatures warm back into the 70s with the passage of
a warm front expected to move across the state. Will have to
monitor for fire weather concerns as min RH is expected to drop
into the teens and winds will be breezy with gusts up to 30 mph.
Northwest flow continues into the later half of the week with
another disturbance moving through Thursday and another chance
for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm may be possible
through the afternoon, generally across western Nebraska into
the northern Sandhills. This evening there will be a chance for
light snow across the northern Sandhills near the NE/SD border
as well. Visibilities may be reduced to 2 miles or potentially
less across portions of the Sandhills into north central
Nebraska this morning with areas of fog possible, this will also
include both KLBF and KVTN terminals. Fog is expected to lift
by mid morning but lower cigs will remain through the rest of
the morning, briefly lift to mid level clouds, then low clouds
will move back in by this evening, lingering into the overnight
across the northern Sandhills. Winds will be strong this
morning and afternoon out of the northwest with winds sustained
at 10 to 20 kts and gust up to 30 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are likely later
today across southwestern Nebraska and a red flag warning has been
issued for zones 210 and 219. Wind gusts will reach 25 to 45 MPH
this afternoon from the east central Panhandle, southeast into SW
Nebraska. Minimum RH will reach 15 to 20 percent across far SW
Nebraska with min RH generally in the 20 to 25 percent range north
up to I-80. Realize min RH this afternoon is slightly above critical
criteria, however wind gusts to 45 MPH are concerning. On Saturday,
near critical fire weather conditions are possible once again over
SW Nebraska. Minimum RH will reach 20 to 25 percent in SW Nebraska
with afternoon wind gusts of 25 to 35 MPH. Near critical or critical
fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Wednesday, mainly
over SW Nebraska. ATTM the greatest threat for critical fire weather
conditions is on Wednesday due to the combination of gusty winds and
low RH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8
PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion