FXUS63 KLBF 212340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
540 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

Active weather is expected over the next couple days as two
different disturbances impact Nebraska. Both systems have the
potential to bring some light snow and even some sleet or ice
pellets to portions of north central Nebraska.

The first shot at precipitation arrives tonight as a shortwave
trough moves across the central Plains. There is some concern that
precipitation will remain south and east of our area, resulting
minimal to no precipitation at all with this system. Confidence is
just high enough, though, to keep a slight chance in extreme eastern
Frontier and southeast Custer counties. However, minimal to no snow
or ice accumulations are expected as temperatures remain just warm
enough to keep precipitation as rain before sunset. By the time
sunset occurs and temperatures drop to near freezing, precipitation
will be east of our area. Regardless, those traveling in the
aforementioned counties/locations should be prepared to see some
flurries or brief ice pellets. Hazards remain minimal for our
forecast area as the system will quickly move off to the east.

A brief break in the active weather is expected for Wednesday
morning and early afternoon before the next system arrives late
Wednesday afternoon. This system will be quick moving, starting
across northern Nebraska late Wednesday afternoon and moving out of
the region Thursday afternoon. With little in the way of moisture
associated with this system, precipitation totals will be minimal.
Precipitation will begin as all rain on Wednesday afternoon and
transition to all snow by Wednesday evening after the sun sets and
temperatures fall below freezing. Overall snow totals are expected
to be generally under an inch with the best locations for
accumulations north of a line from Oshkosh to Broken Bow. For those
living in these locations, expect some light snow covered roadways
as well as reductions in visibility on Wednesday night and early

A few lingering snow showers are expected across the eastern
forecast area early Thursday as the developing low pressure system
moves eastward. Additional snow accumulations up to a couple tenths
are possible east of a line from Burwell to Naper. Snow will
completely move out of the region by Thursday afternoon as surface
high pressure begins to build south across much of western Nebraska.

While winds remain light (under 10 mph) through Thursday morning,
northwest winds will increase Thursday afternoon. Most of the
precipitation will be over by then, but any snow that has fallen
over the past day could result in some blowing and drifting snow
leading to additional travel hazards after the precipitation has
ended. Be prepared for travel impacts and allow for extra travel
time through Thursday.

Winds will decrease Thursday night, allowing the blowing and
drifting snow potential to diminish as well. Skies will gradually
clear Thursday night allowing temperatures to drop into the upper
teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

Expect dry conditions for the rest of the extended period as high
pressure remains firmly in place. In addition to dry weather,
temperatures will also experience a warming trend through the early
next week. Highs will be well above normal with afternoon highs
ranging from the mid to upper 50s across southwest Nebraska to the
low 40s in north central Nebraska. Normals for this time of year
range from the low 40s in Imperial to the upper 30s in north central
Nebraska (Valentine and Broken Bow).

Overnight low temperatures will also be well above normal in the mid
to upper 20s. Normal lows are in the low to mid teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

VFR conditions are expected this evening, followed by MVFR to IFR
ceilings developing across portions of southwest into eastern
portions of north central Nebraska, which should last into late
Wednesday morning. At KLBF, IFR ceilings are expected to develop
after 09Z and last through 15Z with 2SM BR. VFR conditions are
forecast at KVTN the next 24 hours. Light southwest winds tonight
will become northwest on Wednesday.





NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion