759
FXUS63 KLBF 211122
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday

- A scattered to widespread chance of showers and thunderstorms
  late Tuesday and Wednesday

- Moderate to heavy rainfall possible Wednesday

- Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Thursday into
  Thursday night

- Heat returns Friday through Monday with mainly dry conditions

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Short Term (Today through Wednesday night): The main concern in
the short term will be shower and thunderstorm chances late
Tuesday and Wednesday and cooler temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday.

The cold front continues to advance southward tonight into early
Tuesday morning, finally giving a brief reprieve to the 100 degree
temperatures of the past several days. Highs on Tuesday will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Wednesday will be even cooler with highs
mostly in the 70s across north central Nebraska into the Sandhills,
with 80s across western and southwest Nebraska, extreme southwest
Nebraska will be nearing 90 degrees.

As for shower and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. A
weak sw trof will translate eastward into western Nebraska late
Tuesday night. Storm development should hold off until after
midnight, thus do expect most of Tuesday daytime into the evening
should remain dry. As the trof moves east it should provide weak
lift that will provide enough lift for storm development. As the
trof moves eastward across the Sandhills additional storm
development will increase and move eastward. The greatest potential
for storm development will generally be across the northern
Sandhills into north central Nebraska, with more widely scattered
development across southwest Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue through Wednesday overnight, especially across the
Sandhills into central Nebraska.

The greatest QPF values will be northeast of a line from Merriman to
Brady where a half inch to an inch of rainfall will be possible
Tuesday night through early Thursday morning. PWAT values will be
greatest Wednesday morning when values will be greater than 1.80 and
nearing 2.0 inches. PWATs will still remain above 1.50 Wednesday
overnight into early Thursday. All of western and north central
Nebraska is under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday
through Thursday. However, forecast confidence is high that
widespread flooding will not be expected, given recent high
temperatures, no recent rainfall and the area where the heaviest
rainfall is expected is across the Sandhills into central and north
central Nebraska where mostly sandy soil keeps flooding concerns
low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday into Thursday night...the upper ridge will remain centered
over the Four Corners Region into the Southern Plains. This will
bring a continued northwest flow aloft across the Northern and
Central Plains. An H7 trough axis will move eastward across north
central and central NE Thursday morning. This will aid in bringing
chance to likely POPs to these areas, with likely POPs east of
Broken Bow through Bassett. Meanwhile, an H7 closed low over
southwest SD will drop southeast across north central NE into
eastern NE during the afternoon and evening. This will bring chance
POPs across the area, especially during the evening. NBM 24hr hour
probabilities for greater than 0.10 inch is from 40 to 75 percent
east of Highway 83.

The upper ridge is forecast to build northward into the region
Friday through Sunday. Mainly dry conditions, although isolated
thunderstorms are possible. H7 temperatures around 15C Friday warm
to 17 to around 20C Saturday through Monday. Mainly dry conditions,
although isolated storms appear possible during the late afternoon
hours Saturday and Sunday, despite the warm temperatures aloft.

Highs Thursday from the upper 70s east, where clouds and
precipitation are expected, to the upper 80s far southwest.

Friday should see highs slightly above normal in the west to
slightly below normal east (low to mid 90s west, and mid 80s east).
Hot temperatures are likely to return Saturday through Monday. Upper
90s to around 100 Saturday and Sunday and mid to upper 90s
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will continue until 15Z
across the central Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. This
activity is not expected to affect the KLBF terminal attm.
Otherwise expected VFR conditions through this afternoon and
evening. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms will develop after
06Z, mainly across north central NE. Included a TEMPO for -TSRA
at KVTN after 09Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion