467
FXUS63 KLBF 042054
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
354 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are looking more likely across
southwest Nebraska Saturday night. Locally heavy rainfall
could develop.
- A warm pattern will persist through the long term period,
with highs mainly in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Periodic precipitation chances will remain Sunday through
late next week, with the greatest chances Monday afternoon and
evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
A persistent area of upper level high pressure will translate back
to the west and be centered across KS/OK by Saturday afternoon. Mid-
level sub-tropical monsoonal moisture will flow northeastward across
our area on the northwest periphery of the upper high. This will
cause a marked increase in PWATS across the area Saturday.
Currently, mid-level warm air advection continues across the area.
Isolated thunderstorms have been slow to diminish within this
regime. Overnight tonight, a south to southwesterly low-level jet
will increase. Lift and instability aloft increase toward sunrise
with scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms expected to form
across central into portions of north central Nebraska.
By Saturday afternoon, a weak disturbance will pivot eastward across
the area just to the north of the high center to our south. As
mentioned, PWATS will be very high, greater than 1.5". Numerous
showers and thunderstorms should develop across western Nebraska
late in the afternoon. Several of the CAMS cluster these together
into a small complex across southwest Nebraska during the evening
and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall looks to be the main concern.
Locally strong outflow winds could be of concern as overall shear
will be weak. The last couple of runs of the HRRR suggests some
areas could receive 2"+ of rainfall. Will continue to monitor.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
Sunday, a strong 597-dam 500-mb ridge will build and amplify across
the central United States, while a longwave trough remains
established across the western United States. This will maintain
weak west to southwest flow aloft across the region. Warm air
advection will persist through the afternoon, with 850-mb
temperatures rising into the 25 to 30C range, which is quite warm
for this time of year. Deep boundary-layer mixing should support
high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across much of the
area. A weak disturbance is forecast to move into western Nebraska
by late Sunday afternoon into the evening, which may provide enough
forcing for isolated showers and thunderstorm development. However,
weak large-scale forcing and limited deep-layer shear should keep
the severe weather threat low. Some fire weather concerns may
develop Sunday afternoon across western and southwest Nebraska as
minimum relative humidity values approach 25 percent and southerly
winds become gusty. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in
the middle to upper 60s.
Monday, the strong upper-level ridge will remain centered across the
south-central United States while a shortwave ejects northeastward
along its western periphery from Wyoming into the Dakotas.
Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen across the region as this
disturbance approaches, resulting in an increasingly favorable
kinematic environment. Monday afternoon and evening currently appear
more favorable for severe weather compared to Sunday. Ample
instability combined with increasing deep-layer shear may support
organized convection. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a
frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area and should
provide a focus for more widespread shower and thunderstorm
development. The eventual position and timing of this boundary,
along with the magnitude of instability that develops ahead of it,
will play an important role in determining the severe weather
threat. This period will continue to be monitored over the next
several forecast cycles. Highs Monday will remain in the lower to
middle 90s, with overnight lows generally in the middle to upper 60s.
Tuesday through late next week, temperatures should moderate
somewhat behind Mondays frontal passage, with highs generally in the
middle to upper 80s. The upper-level pattern is forecast to become
more zonal with periodic weak disturbances moving through the
region. This should maintain at least scattered precipitation
chances through the end of the forecast period, though confidence in
the timing and coverage of individual rounds remains limited at this
range. Overall, confidence remains high in continued warm
temperatures, with moderate confidence in periodic precipitation
chances through late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026
VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible into tonight but should not be widespread.
Low-level wind shear will be spotty tonight but is not expected
to be widespread as south winds increase just off the surface.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion