832
FXUS63 KLBF 141858
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
158 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued hot and dry conditions expected through the end of
the week, with even warmer temperatures likely Thursday
through Saturday.
- Little to no signal for measurable rainfall exists prior to
the weekend with a 10-15% probability of seeing a tenth of an
inch or more for the Panhandle into far western Sandhills.
- Evolution of the extended patterns remains somewhat uncertain,
however, temperatures appear likely to subside within
increasing northwesterly flow towards early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
This afternoon, broad high pressure aloft remains in place across
much of the Central/Northern Plains. Early afternoon readings show
middle to upper 80s which closely match values at this time on
Monday. This adds confidence to the near-persistence forecast with
afternoon highs ranging from upper 90s in the north to lower 90s
elsewhere. Southerly winds were approaching 20-25 mph for portions
of the area though these should be considered the extreme with
little indication of strengthening found.
Tonight...a moderately strong low-level jet should develop across
the Plains as modest lee troughing sets up. This should allow for
steady southerly winds through the overnight. The increased
kinematics should limit the temperature drop and as a result,
overnight lows were increased slightly. Leaned on warmer MAV/MAVBC
guidance which holds lows in the 60s for all locations and even
middle 60s for many. While not significantly anomalous, these values
will remain above normal for the time of year and continues the
concern that overnight lows provide little relief from the daytime
heat.
Wednesday/Wednesday Night...high pressure at h5 will gradually track
east as troughing develops off the West Coast. Height falls will
overspread the area but overall, broad upper ridging with positive
height anomalies will remain across the region. This allows the
ongoing heatwave to continue largely with no appreciable changes.
Afternoon highs will be +/- 1-2F for most if not all locations from
Tuesday`s values with lower 90s south of the Niobrara Valley and
middle/upper 90s along/north. Winds off the surface will remain
elevated through the day and supports gusty winds. Though not
particularly strong, speeds around 20-25 mph appear possible outside
the Sandhills where magnitudes may be closer to 25-30 mph. Given the
heat and dry airmass, will continue to highlight elevated to near-
critical fire conditions favoring our western zones. Greatest
concern locally is invof the Pine Ridge where humidity should
approach 20 percent. Even warmer overnight temperatures are likely
Wednesday into Thursday. Similarly, used a MAV/MAVBC/CONSRaw blend
to produce middle 60s to near 70F, warmest along the Pine Ridge and
invof the Missouri River.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Thursday through Saturday...Overall, little change is noted in the
late week forecast. Upper-ridging remains entrenched across the
spine of the Rockies with weak flow through the Central and Southern
Plains. Greatest h5 height anomalies will shift north across the
Dakotas where 1.5-1.8 sigma geopotential heights are progged by EPS
guidance. Anamalous warmth will persist in the lower levels and
result in daily highs in the middle 90s to low 100s. Drier air will
be replaced by modified Gulf air as surface high pressure stalls
near the Gulf Coast and southerly fetch arriving in western Nebraska
originates from the Texas Coast. How far west this more humid
airmass reaches remains in question with central and eastern
Nebraska remaining the favored locations for the richer moisture
quality. This potential leads to increased heat concerns for the
timeframe as similar heat but greater mugginess would bolster daily
heat indices (HI) closer to the century mark. For now, seeing some
potential need for Heat Advisories (100F HI or higher) in our
typical problem areas...the Niobrara Valley east towards the meeting
point with the Missouri. Have noticed that the model blend tends to
be warmest in the mid-range with gradual decreases in forecast highs
closer to the 48 hour out window. Considering this and in
collaboration with neighboring offices, did blend some bias-
corrected guidance to slightly decrease daytime highs on Thursday
and Friday. Regardless if HI hit 100F or not, the persistent day-to-
day heat of middle to upper 90s with overnight lows in the middle
60s to lower 70s will prove to be concerning to folks without
adequate protections. Folks are recommended to take the necessary
steps to protect themselves from the expected heat.
Sunday and beyond...heading into early next week, evolution of the
upper pattern is somewhat in flux. Broad ridging will remain in
place immediately to the west of the local area with zonal to quasi-
northwesterly flow likely to develop by Sunday/Monday. A northern
stream disturbance will round the heights aloft and track east-
southeast out of southern Canada towards the Great Lakes sometime in
the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. This suggests quick to follow high
pressure and potential for a backdoor cool front to work its way in.
NBM guidances shows consistent decreases in the inner-quartile MaxT
output, with median values quickly falling to low 90s by Tuesday and
even middle 80s by Wednesday. Though 25th-75th spread remains fairly
small, 10th-90th spread remains fairly large at or around 15-20F.
This highlights the uncertainty with precise details come next week.
While very light preciptitation is possible later Sunday (10-15%
potential for > 0.10" in our west), better potential appears delayed
until closer to Tuesday and seems to coincide with the potential
frontal intrusion. NBM probabilities increase to 40-50% to exceed
0.10" in our west around Tuesday night/Wednesday. While this
certainly won`t bring the necessary moisture to offset the dry/hot
spell, it appears likely to break our completely dry streak and
bears watching in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
The only potential for clouds will be diurnal cumulus which
should only affect KLBF with bases around 5kft AGL. Southerly
winds will be persistent with gusts around 20 knots Tuesday
afternoon and again by late morning Wednesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion