916
FXUS63 KLBF 302014
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
314 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms
  tonight and again Monday and Monday night. Damaging wind
  gusts are the main severe threats both days. There is also a
  threat for large hail Monday afternoon/evening.

- Precipitation chances become limited after Tuesday night.

- With the forecast area being under the influence of an upper
  level ridge, above normal temps are expected over the next 7
  days.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

H5 pattern this morning had an elongated area of high
pressure which extended from western Texas into the Tennesse Valley.
The center of this high was located along the Oklahoma/Arkansas
border. Ridging extended north of this feature to northern Manitoba.
east of the ridge, low pressure was located off the coast of Labrador
Newfoundland. A trough extended southwest of this feature into
southeastern Ontario.  West of the ridge, low pressure was located
over far southwestern Alberta and far southeastern British Columbia.
A trough extended southwest of this feature to San Francisco CA.
Downstream of the low and trough, broad southwesterly flow was noted
from southern California northeast to the western Dakotas, Wyoming,
Colorado, northwestern Kansas and Nebraska. Within this flow,
satellite imagery is indicating several weak disturbances. These
disturbances were located over northeastern New Mexico, Western
Colorado and central Wyoming. Abundant mid and high level clouds
continue to stream into western and north central Nebraska this
afternoon. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, 2 PM CDT temperatures
ranged from 86 degrees at Broken Bow and North Platte to 90 degrees
at Imperial, Ogallala, O`Neill and Valentine.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Low end precipitation chances will continue to be the main
forecast challenge in the short term. Upper level low pressure
will cross southern Saskatchewan tonight. Strong dynamics in
association with this feature will lead to thunderstorms (some
severe) over the western Dakotas this evening. Further south,
embedded in the southwesterly mid level flow, a weak shortwave
disturbance, will initiate convection over the front range of
Colorado this evening. This activity will gradually work into
western Kansas and SW Nebraska early this evening. The latest
CAMS continue to hint at isolated to widely scattered coverage
of storms tonight. With limited QPF indicated in the NBM
ensembles, was inclined to utilize pops in the 20 to 30% range
tonight generally south of a line from Arthur to Callaway.
Further north, a frontal boundary will drop south into
northwestern Nebraska overnight, stalling across the northern
half of the Sandhills. Was concerned about precipitation INVOF
the front overnight. However, this is not supported by the CAMS
as well as the ensemble NBM fcst which has a near zero chance
for measurable pcpn through 12z Monday. As for the severe threat
this evening. The 12z NAM soln indicates limited CAPE this
afternoon across central and western Nebraska and the 18z LBF
RAOB continues to indicate an inverted V type sounding. That
being said, damaging winds appear to be the main severe threat
ATTM. The frontal boundary over the northern Sandhills, will
lift north as a warm front on Monday. A secondary boundary will
exist from far NW Kansas into SE Nebraska. The latest CAMS as
well as the 12z NAM12 soln develop convection over northeastern
Colorado late Monday afternoon. This activity will lift
northeast into western and southwestern Nebraska mid evening
Monday. Forced by a low level jet, the boundary off to the south
of the FA will lift north overnight with precipitation chances
transitioning from southern portions of the forecast area to
northern areas overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning.
ATTM, decent shear exists and forecast CAPE across the southern
half of the forecast area is favorable for hail. Gusty winds
will be possible with the main threat Monday evening. With the
front over the central Sandhills slowly transitioning north
Monday, highs will range from the middle 80s in the north to
around 90 over SW Nebraska. Overnight lows will remain mild
tonight and Monday night with readings ranging from 55 to 70
tonight and 60 to near 70 Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will lift north into northern
Nebraska. Persistent clouds and the threat for showers and
thunderstorms will carry over Tuesday into Tuesday evening with
the main threat across northern Nebraska. Highs Tuesday will
range from the lower 80s in the north to near 90 in the south.
On Wednesday, a strong shortwave trough will cross the northern
Rockies bringing a decent threat for thunderstorms to the
Dakotas. The current NBM forecast has some isolated pops across
northwestern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. The
latest deterministic GFS and to a lesser degree the EC soln does
generate some QPF over NW and north central Nebraska Wednesday
night. The NBM barely has a 20% chance of exceeding 0.01" of QPF
across the northwestern forecast area Wednesday night. That
being said, will let the NBM initialization ride for now. High
pressure aloft will continue to retrograde to the west
northwest, becoming anchored over the central and southern
plains late this week into the weekend. This will lead to mainly
dry conditions for Labor Day weekend with very warm
temperatures. High temperatures look to be well into the 90s
across the forecast area for Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Overall, the current high temperature forecast is running around
10 degrees above normal for the first week of September.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast
Colorado this afternoon. These are forecasted to move into
southwest Nebraska this evening with gusty winds. May need to
add a TEMPO group at LBF for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence not high enough at this time. Expect broken mid and
high level cloudiness and VFR to prevail.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion