430
FXUS63 KLBF 071153
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each
  afternoon/evening Tuesday and Wednesday for much of western
  and north central Nebraska.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon
  and evening. The severe risk continues to be refined, but
  there does appear to be a chance for hail and winds.

- Warmer and drier conditions are expected late this week into
  early next week. Above average temperatures are expected, with
  highs in the mid to upper 90s as early as this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Early this morning, decaying showers for Monday late evening
thunderstorms persisted across the western Sandhills. A
strengthening low-level jet and weak warm air advection should allow
activity to persist through daybreak in roughly the same areas.
Mesoanalysis depicts moderate MUCAPE in place to the tune of 1000-
2000 j/kg though fairly strong capping to overcome. With the latter
of these details, believe coverage will be limited to isolated and
thus have PoPs at 20% or less. Most locations will remain dry and
those that do see rain will probably see only a tenth of an inch at
best. Early morning readings ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
While some cooling is still likely to occur, lingering high clouds
should keep things on the milder side with forecast lows only
reaching the lower to middle 60s for most if not all locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...early morning low-level jet should veer and
focus further north into South Dakota by mid to late morning. This
will bring a swift end to any isolated activity shortly after
daybreak. Upper level high pressure will stall across the Four
Corners region with a shortwave trough crossing the Intermountain
West through the day. This will favor increasing lee troughing and
eventual surface low development by late afternoon. Southerly winds
will increase as a warm front develops near the I-90 corridor and
gusty afternoon winds are expected. NBM probabilistic data shows
increasing potential for gusts to exceed 25 mph with the western
Sandhills showing 80% potential by late morning and expansive 60-80%
potential by mid-afternoon for all locations of west central
Nebraska. This generally aligns with BUFKIT soundings which show
reasonable signals for momentum transfer gusts in the 20-25 mph
range, increasing to 30-35 mph for areas west of Highway 83. Monday
evening RAOB data from North Platte shows h85 temperatures around
25C and short-term guidance shows little if any change expected. As
a result, afternoon highs are generally a persistence forecast with
widespread 90s and middle to upper 90s for southwest into the
Panhandle and along/north the Niobrara Valley. By late afternoon,
low-level inhibition should erode from low-level mixing as forcing
increases from the approaching shortwave. Convection should fire
along a subtle dryline across the Panhandle with an eastward
trajectory with time. Greater low-level moisture should support
greater instability to the east.. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) invof the Pine Ridge and
north with a Marginal Risk (level 1) north and west of a Lynch to
Ainsworth to Imperial line. In general agreement on this with
greater instability/shear overlap to the north closer to the warm
front. That said, moderate instability with 20-30 knot shear should
still support multicell clusters with a few transient supercells.
Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles which suggest a ripe
environment for 60-70 mph outflow gusts though some severe hail will
certainly be possible as well with straight, though not particularly
long, hodographs. Convection should favor late afternoon into the
evening hours with early afternoon activity unlikely due to strong
capping. Activity should weaken with eastward extent thus rain
potential will largely be limited to areas west of Highway 83.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...convective reinforcement along with
approaching high pressure should shunt the I-90 warm front south as
a cool front into Wednesday. This boundary should stall across
western Nebraska by early morning and casts some uncertainty in
afternoon high temperatures. NBM MaxT standard deviation values show
a subtle increase with statistical guidance showing large
discrepancies across northern Nebraska. Afternoon temperatures were
trended down slightly as a result but falls well short of the cooler
values advertised by NAM/MET guidance. Will need to evaluate this
closer with subsequent forecasts. General easterly flow will be in
place for much of western Nebraska as the area resides north of the
warm front extending east across Kansas from developing low-pressure
near La Junta, CO. The exception to this will be southwest Nebraska
which may remain close to the boundary in question and allow for
another hot and humid day. This results in varying maximum
temperatures: middle 80s in the north to middle 90s in the south. By
mid afternoon, moderate instability should develop within a weakly
sheared environment. The SPC has introduced a new Slight Risk (level
2) for much of western Nebraska and this aligns with the hotter
environment. Deeper mixing will promote inverted-v profiles again
which will favor damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms that
develop. HREF guidance highlights two distinct areas of development:
1) high terrain activity forming off the Front Range of southeast
Wyoming and 2) activity in closer proximity to the lingering surface
boundary of central Nebraska. The latter of which will form as
convergence increases later from an approaching shortwave trough. In
either environment, damaging wind gusts are likely favored again
though severe hail will also be possible, especially in the early
life of any development when updrafts are more robust and less
competitive with each other. The PoP forecast was nudged towards NAM
guidance which showed these two different areas of development and
similarly, the rainfall forecast leans on NAM output as well. This
suggests some heavy rain potential, particularly with slow moving
storms near the boundary, but the majority of the heaviest rain
should remain south and east of local area. This matches the latest
WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook which favors eastern Nebraska but
clips our eastern zones with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4). Though
slow to depart, convection should exit to the south by early morning
Thursday. Low temperatures should fall into the upper 50s to middle
60s which remains slightly above normal for early/mid July.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

By Thursday, an upper level low is expected to sit over Alberta,
with mostly zonal flow across the Central Plains. As an upper level
shortwave tracks through the upper level flow, a surface low is
expected to track east across the Dakotas, bringing a cold front
across the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Dewpoints ahead of
the front are expected to break into the lower 60s across the
region, providing plenty of moisture ahead of the cold front`s
forcing. This should again set up an environment supportive of
building instability across the region, and with the upper level
flow, should provide modest deep layer shear across the region,
supporting organized convection in the afternoon and evening. While
the mesoscale features will still need to be resolved to build
higher confidence in severe threats, there does at least appear to
be a signal for additional large hail and damaging wind threats
Thursday. While the severe threat will continue to be refined in the
coming forecasts, confidence in seeing showers and thunderstorms is
moderately high for Thursday afternoon and evening across the
region.

After Thursday, upper level ridging begins to build across western
Nebraska, which should bring a return of a drier pattern late week
into the weekend. In fact, guidance is fairly pessimistic in
precipitation chances this weekend into early next week. With the
upper level ridging, warmer temperatures are expected to advect into
the region, bringing a return of higher temperatures across western
and north central Nebraska, especially this weekend into early next
week. Confidence is fairly high in this return of warmer, drier
conditions, especially considering the general consensus in
spaghetti plots and cluster analysis. Highs this weekend into early
next week are expected to climb into the 90s, with highs in the mid
to upper 90s as early as Sunday. While this is warmer than typical
for this time of year, our typical highs are right around 90
degrees, so not too out of the ordinary for July. For now, forecast
highs are right around the 75th to 90th percentile compared to
climatology, remaining well cooler than record highs. However, with
a return to warmer, drier conditions, will be keeping a close eye on
the humidity and wind forecasts over the next several days. This
pattern could bring a return of fire weather concerns, depending on
how this week`s weather pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Outside of convection, VFR conditions are likely for the
forecast period.

Passing high clouds this morning should thin with gusty south
winds developing by late morning. Late afternoon thunderstorms
should develop to the west with a reintroduction of high level
clouds as a result. Storms should encounter a less favorable
environment as they propogate east and this casts doubt on
direct impacts at either terminal. Will maintain a PROB30 at LBF
but carry a VCTS mention at VTN. Any threat should be brief and
a return to VFR is probable towards the end of the period. With
a progressive front from the north, some potential exists for
low-stratus at VTN in the predawn hours but confidence is low so
will hold off on inserting anything but VFR at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion