122
FXUS63 KLBF 141124
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures remain across the region this week, with the
warmest highs arriving Thursday through Saturday. Potential
for temperatures to break 100 remains highest over north
central Nebraska late week.
- In addition to the prolonged hot and dry conditions, gusty
winds may bring some elevated to near critical fire weather
concerns.
- Uncertainty remains in the forecast Sunday into early next
week, as guidance struggles with the upper air pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Today and tonight, the upper ridge axis will extend from Wyoming
through South Dakota and northern Illinois. Despite such as strong
upper ridge to our north, highs will range near 90, with low to mid
90s north central. These highs range from 0 to 3 degrees above
normal central and south, and 4 to 8 degrees above normal north. H85
temperature streamlines are from the southeast and anomalies remain
slightly below normal across Kansas and Missouri today, so when
advecting northwestward into Nebraska, this is attributing to highs
not being as hot as across South Dakota. South southeasterly winds
become breezy by this afternoon at 15 to 25 mph. Skies will be
mostly sunny with a few cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Lows
tonight in the low to mid 60s.
Wednesday and Wednesday night, the synoptic pattern remains similar
with highs nearly the same, mostly near 90, except with low 90s
north central. South southeasterly winds again become breezy by
afternoon at 15 to 25 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny, with a few
cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Lows Wednesday night in the mid
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
Late week, the heat continues in earnest, bringing the warmest
temperatures in this hear wave. Upper level ridging will remain over
the region, with the warmest temperatures aloft this week. This is
expected to result in highs reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s
across the region, with the best potential for breaking 100
remaining across northern Nebraska. In fact, the latest run of the
GEFS ensemble highlights this well, bringing a 50 to 60 percent
chance for temperatures to break 100, mainly along the Highway 20
corridor. These highs still remain around the 90th percentile of
local climatology and are expected to remain below record highs.
Still keeping a close eye on trends, especially in overnight low
temperatures, to determine whether heat headlines will be needed or
not. Overnight lows are expected to cool into the upper 60s to lower
70s across north central Nebraska, mainly areas east of Highway 83.
Worth noting, is that even these lows remain near the 90th
percentile in local climatology, so they could provide little
relief. Even though daytime highs are expected to just crack
Advisory criteria, the general lack of overnight cooling may be the
deciding factor for potential headlines.
In addition to the heat, conditions still look to remain breezy late
week into the weekend. However, latest guidance begins to suggest
that gusty winds will slowly decrease Thursday onward, with gusts
around 30 to 35 mph on Thursday reducing to 20 to 25 mph by Friday
and Saturday. While this may help limit greater fire weather
concerns late week, there still is potential for elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions through the end of the week, given
the hot, dry conditions and generally gusty winds.
Uncertainty remains in the forecast Sunday into early next week.
There remains a notable difference in the GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF
solutions regarding a trough tracking across the Pacific Northwest
into north central North America. Interestingly, the GFS and
Canadian both suggest the trough helps amplify the ridge by
Saturday, but then they diverge. The GFS keeps strong ridging across
the region, while the Canadian flattens the ridge a bit, tracking
the stronger flow over the Dakotas. Meanwhile, the ECMWF brings the
trough across the northern United States, flattening the ridge and
bringing northwest flow into the region. However, the latest
European guidance also suggest the ridge builds back in over the
next few days. This discrepancy continues to reflect in cluster
analysis as well, with the more European weighted clusters
flattening the ridge, while the clusters more influenced by the GFS
and Canadian keep upper level ridging across the region, with little
to no interruption. With this bit of disagreement, the NBM brings in
some slight chance PoPs Sunday into early week. Taking a dive into
the ensemble data, precipitation chances still look pretty sparse,
and even the runs bringing precipitation bring very low end amounts.
With that in mind, confidence in any precipitation remains very low
at this time. However, there is a bit better consensus that upper
level temperatures may cool a bit, bringing highs potentially back
to around seasonal by early next week. Worth remembering, seasonal
highs are still right around 90 to 91 degrees, so even if this
becomes reality, it won`t be a significant cool off. With this much
uncertainty in the longer term forecast, will continue to keep an
eye on forecast trends, especially seeing if the global models can
come into better consensus on this upper level flow over the next
few days. Until then, there is still plenty of potential for changes
in the forecast for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. The main aviation concern
today will be gusty southerly and southeasterly winds across the
region. Peak gusts are expected across the Sandhills into the
Panhandle, where gusts up to 30 knots are possible this
afternoon. Latest forecast soundings suggest gusts last a little
longer this evening, before eventually settling into steady
southerly and southeasterly winds overnight. Will again be
keeping an eye on a potential low level jet developing over
western Nebraska tonight. At this time, confidence is low in
impacts to KLBF and KVTN, so will omit.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion