962
FXUS63 KLBF 212031
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
331 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight into Friday
across the area (70-90%) with wetting rain of a quarter inch
or more likely across all of western and north central
Nebraska.
- Mainly dry and warmer conditions will settle in across the
area Saturday through early next week with highs in the 70s
Saturday, followed by 80s for Sunday and Monday.
- Warmer than normal temperatures will continue into next week
with increasing precipitation chances beginning mid week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
H5 analysis this morning had low pressure located over southwestern
Saskatchewan. A trough extended south southwest of this feature
through the intermountain west into southern California. Within this
trough, a strong shortwave disturbance was located over northeastern
Idaho. Downstream of this trough, broad west-southwesterly flow
extended from the trough across the central plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley. East of the Mississippi Valley, more zonal flow
extended east to the Mid Atlantic and New England. Ridging was
present across British Columbia and high pressure was anchored to
the north of the Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure was anchored
over the northern Great Lakes. A frontal boundary extended across
the western Dakotas into central portions of Wyoming. Clouds in
association with a lead disturbance were infiltrating southwestern
and western Nebraska this afternoon and scattered rain showers had
developed in these areas. At 2 PM CDT, temperatures ranged from 56
degrees at Imperial, to 70 degrees at Ainsworth.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Convection should be ongoing across the higher terrain of
eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado late this afternoon.
This convection will fire along a narrow corridor of 1000+
MLCAPE which extends from eastern Colorado into the western
Nebraska Panhandle. Decent 0-6km shear will facilitate strong to
severe storms initially off to the west of the forecast area.
However, the severe threat should quickly wane as activity
tracks east during the evening hours into a stable airmass
located in the western Sandhills and SW Nebraska below H850.
Storms will progress east into the evening hours, driven by a
decent mid level shortwave trough and some limited elevated
instability in the H850-H700 layer. The H5 shortwave will track
from central Wyoming into far northwestern Nebraska by 12z
Friday. Broad lift in advance of the H5 trough and PWATS on the
order of 0.75 to 1.00 inches, should lead to widespread
precipitation tonight into Friday morning across the forecast
area. As for QPF`s the latest EC and GEFS ensemble forecasts
have the entire forecast area at a near 100% chance for QPF`s
exceeding 0.10 inches. When this threshold is raised up to a
half an inch, all of the forecast area has a 50+% chance of
exceedance. The inherited forecast had widespread 80-near 100%
pops tonight across the forecast area. Based on the ensemble
probabilities, and deterministic solns from the 12z HRRR, NAM,
GFS and EC models, feel these pops are very much on track. The
shortwave trough will track into central South Dakota by midday
Friday. Westerly and northwesterly winds and good subsidence
will develop over western, then Central Nebraska Friday morning
with the precipitation threat shifting east and northeast of the
forecast area by midday Friday. With model trends this morning,
precipitation chances were ended earlier than the inherited
forecast. By 19z Friday, the threat for precipitation will end
across he eastern forecast area. In the wake of the exiting
system, clearing skies will lead to warmer temps, especially in
the southwest and west where earlier clearing will facilitate
warmer temps. Highs Friday will reach into the middle to
possibly upper 60s in those areas. High pressure will then build
into northern Nebraska Friday Night. This will lead to mainly
clear skies and lows in the upper 30s to around 40. Clouds will
begin to increase across southwestern Nebraska overnight Friday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
A weak disturbance and mid level warm air advection will work
into southwestern portions of the forecast area Saturday with a
slight chance for showers and storms. The current forecast has
precipitation out of the forecast area Saturday evening,
however, this will need further analysis as this morning`s GFS
lingers precipitation across the area Saturday evening. Low
amplitude flow will transition to ridging across the central
CONUS Sunday into Tuesday. This will lead to generally dry
conditions across the area with readings warming into the 80s. A
more active pattern may return to the area beyond Tuesday. A
trough of low pressure will amplify across the northwestern
portion of the CONUS placing the area in southerly or
southwesterly flow aloft. Increasing southerly winds will begin
to force gulf moisture into the forecast area mid week as well.
This will lead to above normal temps and better chances for
precipitation toward the middle and end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Ceilings will continue to lower this afternoon into the evening
hours as a trough of low pressure approaches the area. MVFR and
periodic IFR ceilings will develop tonight across western and
southwestern Nebraska. Periods of rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this evening with
mainly a shower threat continuing into the overnight hours. IFR
conditions are more likely at the KLBF terminal and ceilings
are forecast to be below 1000 FT AGL from 6z to 15z Friday.
Skies will gradually clear late Friday morning at the KLBF
terminal with clouds persisting into the afternoon hours Friday
at the KVTN terminal.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion