744
FXUS63 KLBF 091709
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1209 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday with Red
Flag Warnings in place for much of western Nebraska.
- A cool front will dive south early Monday evening into
Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures as well as the potential
for a light rain/snow mix if not all snow for portions of the
area.
- Critical fire weather concerns are likely on Thursday due to a
combination of strong west winds and very low relative
humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
Early this morning, stray mid-level clouds continue to shuffle west
to east across the area. Westerly winds remain elevated across the
area with stray gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range noted over the
Sandhills into the Panhandle. KLNX VWP data shows 20-30 knot winds
just off the surface and this is likely to persist through the
remainder of the predawn hours. The result is mild overnight lows
once again with values likely to remain above the freezing mark and
some areas likely holding onto the 40s.
Monday/Monday Night...enhanced mid-level flow across the Northern
CONUS will slowly settle south overnight into early Monday. Zonal
mid-level flow will continue through the day. As a mid-level
disturbance approaches the Laramie Range by early afternoon, a
surface low and associated lee troughing will form to the west.
Gradually through the afternoon, this low will track east along the
Nebraska/South Dakota border lifting a warm front north and east
through western Nebraska. Behind this feature, winds will strengthen
beneath a modest h7 speed max nearing 40 knots. With strong
downsloping winds, temperatures should again quickly climb this
afternoon across the whole forecast area. Leaned heavily on MET/MAV
guidance, which paints upper 60s to near 80F northeast to southwest,
as these solutions were the warmest and showed fairly good agreement
in our warmest areas (Highway 2 and points south). It`s these areas
where upper 70s to near 80F is in place and a few record highs could
be threatened. Details pertaining to that can be found in the
Climate section below. Given the expected warm temperatures of up to
30F above normal, invading dry air, and gusty winds, fire weather
concerns are the main issue for today and details can be found in
the following Fire Weather discussion. Late tonight, as the weak
surface low continues to move east, a trailing cold front will
quickly clear the area by early Tuesday morning. Winds behind this
front should be gusty as pressure rises quickly fill in the region.
Cold air advection (CAA) will lead to cooler lows across the area
with forecast values in the middle 20s to low 30s.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night...northerly flow will continue through the day
and prolong CAA. Forecast highs were decreased slightly as a result
utilizing a NAM/MET blend which typically handles CAA setups better.
Forcing will lag the front by a few hours and be more closely tied
to a PV anomaly crossing Wyoming. While PoPs may arrive as early as
late morning near the Pine Ridge, more widespread precipitation
potential should hold off until Tuesday evening into early
Wednesday. Highs during the day will still be plenty warm to
support all rain, with middle 40s north to near 60F south, but
as cooler air continue to filter in a transition to at least a
snow mix if not all snow appears likely during the overnight.
Top down saturation should allow for a clean rain to snow
transition and as mid-level forcing peaks closer to Midnight,
moderate to perhaps briefly heavy snowfall will be possible. NBM
probabilities of exceeding 0.05" liquid equivalent climb to
around 60% along the Nebraska/South Dakota border but NAM/GFS
deterministic outputs are both further south and show bullseyes
of 0.10" for a few locations. For now, confidence is fairly low
in seeing the heavier scenarios play out. Because of this,
snowfall totals remain light at one inch or less for anywhere in
the area. We can`t rule out some necessary increases in
expected snowfall with later forecasts so stay tuned. The colder
incoming air should lead to a fairly cold night with lows in
the upper teens to middle 20s for western Nebraska.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
Northwest flow establishes aloft into midweek, pointing to
drier conditions across the area. Though temperatures will be
much cooler on Wednesday (highs in upper 40s to low 50s) versus
earlier in the week, very dry air will still push humidity
values to as low as 18- 25% Wednesday afternoon. Winds remain
gusty from the northwest through the day as well, with gusts of
25 to 30 expected for all. This will lead to elevated to near
critical fire weather concerns.
Confidence continues to increase in a higher end fire weather threat
across the area for Thursday. As strong downslope flow establishes
by Thursday afternoon (H7-H85 flow ~40-50kts), wind gusts will
increase to as high as 45 to 55 miles per hour for much of western
and southwest Nebraska. These strong west wind gusts will overlap
near record temperatures and relative humidity values in the teens.
The current forecast continues to sit on the lower end of the
guidance envelope (near the 25th percentile), with highs in the
lower to middle 70s. Should these temperatures continue to trend
warmer, with 50th percentile guidance in the upper 70s/low 80s, this
will only lead to lower relative humidity and further increase fire
concerns. The one caveat at this range looks to be a threat for high
cloudiness, which could impact both the degree of mixing and high
temperatures somewhat. Regardless, confidence is increasing in a
higher end fire weather day, with a threat for large fire growth and
rapid fire spread across the area.
A cold front then passes through the area Thursday night, as a
surface low ejects across Kansas and Missouri. This brings a return
of cooler temperatures Friday, primarily for north central Nebraska.
Warmer temperatures remain across southwest Nebraska, and fire
concerns may persist into late week as well. A second cold front
pushes through into Sunday morning, bringing a return of cooler
temperatures for the entire area as we head into early next week.
This could also bring a return of precipitation, though confidence
in this remains low for now.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday morning
across western and north central Nebraska. West to southwest
winds, with gusts of 20 to 30kts across the western Sandhills,
with gusts to 20kts at KLBF. Winds to remain light and variable
at KVTN this afternoon. Winds briefly weaken from the south this
evening, before a cold front moves through after sunset. North
wind gusts of 20 to 25kts can be expected with its passage.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for Zones 204, 206, 208, and 210
on Monday.
Approaching mid-level disturbance will foster a developing low
pressure center over eastern Wyoming by midday. As this feature
tracks east along the Nebraska/South Dakota border, a warm front
will lift north and east across the area. The resulting
strengthening west to southwesterly winds will boost afternoon highs
to near record levels with values in the upper 70s to near 80F. Deep
mixing within the warming/drying downslope winds will promote strong
momentum transfer wind gusts beneath a belt of stronger winds around
h7 (~3km AGL). Though mid and high level clouds may hamper the
diurnal warmup slightly, confidence is fairly high in afternoon
temperatures. Higher resolution guidance is fairly bullish on
critical humidity levels with many locations south of Highway 2 and
west of Highway 183 falling into the lower teens and potentially
approach single digits in portions of Zone 210. Winds should be
strongest across the western Sandhills where peak gusts should climb
up to 40 mph. Elsewhere, gusts should fall off considerably with
peak speeds of 20 mph or less. These marginal winds are the
justification for omitting Zones 209 and 219 at this time. As the
frontal boundary sags south tonight, winds should abruptly shift
from westerly to northerly and gusts may remain elevated for a brief
moment. Even with this potential, the decision was made to keep the
end time as is due to the magnitude of cold air coming in should
allow for reasonable humidity recovery within the first few hours of
frontal passage.
After a brief return of cooler temperatures and increased
humidity on Tuesday, fire concerns are expected again for
Wednesday and this persists into late week. Though cooler highs
are expected Wednesday (highs in upper 40s to 50s), very dry air
will lead to low relative humidity overlapping gusty northwest
winds (20 to 30mph). Elevated to near critical fire concerns are
expected on Wednesday.
Attention then turns to a potentially higher end fire weather day on
Thursday across the area. Near record temperatures in the 70s to low
80s will combine with dry air to push relative humidity values into
the teens Thursday afternoon. Most concerning, strong west winds
look to develop across western Nebraska into the Sandhills as well,
with gusts as high as 45 to 55 miles per hour possible. This looks
to lead to a period of critical fire concerns Thursday, and points
towards a very concerning setup for large and rapid fire spread.
Trends will need to be monitored very closely and future fire
weather headlines may be needed across much of western and north
central Nebraska on Thursday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026
Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)
Monday 03/09
North Platte 79/81 (2021)
Valentine 70/78 (2021)
Broken Bow 77/79 (2021)
Imperial 78/80 (1989)
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Brown/NMJ
CLIMATE...NMJ
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion