949
FXUS63 KLBF 211128
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A Red Flag Warning in effect across the area today into
tonight due to record high temperatures, afternoon humidity as
low as 5 to 10 percent and gusty southwest winds. A strong
cold front tonight will abruptly shift winds to the north.
- Temperatures are expected to shatter daily high records this
afternoon, as well as break all time March high temperature
records.
- After a cool off on Sunday, temperatures are expected to
steadily climb again next week. A late week cold front may
usher in cooler but still above average temperature to end the
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Today, the upper ridge will begin to break down as a disturbance
moves across the Northern Plains. This will drive a cold front south
to near the I90 corridor in southern South Dakota by 00Z this
evening.
Will see surface low pressure deepen across southwestern South
Dakota, with anomalously warm H85 temperatures from 24 to 28C across
the area. Forecast highs were nudged up near the 50th percentile,
from the low 90s north, to the mid to upper 90s south. These highs
are also in close agreement with the warmer MAV guidance. These
forecast highs would also break monthly record highs for March.
The 00Z KLBF sounding showed dry adiabatic mixing to just above
650mb. Even deeper mixing will occur today, up to 500mb, with clear
skies and persistent southwesterly winds. This will mix very dry air
to the surface, with afternoon humidity as low as 5 to 10 percent
across much of the area. Went with the NBM 25th percentile to
capture the expected lower dewpoints. The combination of record high
temperatures and very low humidity will also combine with southwest
winds 15 to 25 mph and lead to critical fire weather conditions.
Gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon will diminish some in the
early evening, followed by a cold front dropping into northern
Nebraska by late evening, and advancing quickly south overnight.
West winds quickly shift to the north behind the front from 20 to 30
mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible, are expected for up to a 6
hour period overnight. The sharp west to north wind shift, will
prolong fire weather concerns across the area through the evening
into the overnight. Therefore the Red Flag Warning remains in effect
from 10 AM CDT Saturday until 4 AM CDT Sunday, allowing for the wind
shift and gusty winds behind the front Saturday night.
Lows tonight fall into upper 30s to low 40s. Humidity recovery will
improve to 75 to 85 percent north, and 65 to 75 percent south.
Sunday, surface high pressure will remain over the area. Gusty,
northerly winds will continue through the morning hours before cold
air advection ends by early afternoon. Despite the significant
cooldown from Saturday, high temperatures Sunday will still be from
5 to 10 degrees above normal, ranging for near 55 northeast to 65
far southwest.
Sunday night, surface winds will become southeast with increasing
cloudiness. Lows will range from the upper 30s west to low 30s
east.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Upper level ridging builds back across the region on Monday, which
will return us to a warming trend through the middle of the week.
High temperatures steadily climb from the 60s and lower 70s on
Monday to the 80s, at the very least, by Wednesday. In fact,
Wednesday appears to have a very similar set up to today, with
strong upper level ridging and anomalously warm 850 mb
temperatures. Continuing to notice that the NBM deterministic
is remaining around the 25th percentile in temperature spreads,
which is simply too low with the expected conditions,
considering the 75th percentile is in the mid 90s. Will maintain
mid to upper 80s for now, but expect that highs on Wednesday
will continue to trend warmer, potentially into the 90s as we
get closer to Wednesday. With the return of warmer temperatures
early week, expect a return of fire weather conditions through
at least mid week. Monday through Wednesday each show potential
for relative humidity values in the 15 to 25 percent range
across the region. Concerns appear greatest on Monday and
Wednesday, when warmest temperatures and lower relative humidity
have overlap with gustier winds. Will continue to keep a close
eye on forecast trends in the early to mid week range to
determine if additional fire weather headlines will be needed.
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, expecting that the upper
level ridge begins to breakdown, returning to a more zonal flow, for
at least a brief period. As this occurs, expecting a cold front to
track through the region, bringing somewhat cooler yet still above
average temperatures for Thursday afternoon. Also expecting the
front to bring gusty northerly winds across the region. However,
expecting this will again be a dry frontal passage, with little to
no precipitation expected. Though ensemble forecasts do show a
roughly 10 to 20 percent chance of exceeding one hundredth of an
inch of precipitation, the chances for more than one tenth of an
inch remain zero across the region. Mostly expecting that this front
will usher in some cooler temperatures to end the week, bringing
highs back into the 50s and 60s, which still remains slightly warmer
than average for late March.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. High clouds are currently
observed on satellite and are expected to disperse by late morning.
Winds remain relatively light this morning out of the west and
northwest, but become gusty this afternoon across most of the
region. This evening, a brief period of less gusty winds is
expected, however, a cold front tracking through the region will
bring gusty northerly winds through the overnight period. Expecting
lower ceilings are also a possibility as the front tracks into the
region, with forecast sounding suggesting potential MVFR ceilings
late in the TAF period across portions of northern Nebraska.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Critical fire weather conditions today as record highs reach the low
90s to upper 90s. It cannot be emphasized enough how warm
temperatures will be this afternoon, with highs reaching 40 to 45
degrees above climatological normals. Relative humidity values fall
to 5 to 10 percent. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph,
with gusts to 30 mph possible. A cold front will move into northern
Nebraska by late evening (03Z), and advance quickly south overnight.
Behind the front, winds will shift to the north at 20 to 30 mph and
could gust to 40 mph for a few hours. A prolonged period of extreme
fire behavior would be possible with any fires Saturday afternoon
through early Sunday morning. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect
from 10 AM CDT Saturday until 4 AM CDT Sunday.
Cooler highs from 55 to 65 on Sunday with afternoon humidity much
higher at around 30 percent. Gusty northerly winds up to 30 mph in
the morning will diminish in the afternoon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)
Today 03/21 Wednesday 03/25
North Platte 96/86 (1910) 85/84 (1907)
Valentine 93/84 (1910) 79/85 (1993)
Broken Bow 96/83 (1997) 81/83 (2004,1956,1908)
Imperial 96/87 (1907) 86/85 (1907)
Forecast highs this afternoon at North Platte, Imperial, Broken
Bow and Valentine are expected to break all-time March records,
which are 91, 89, 92 and 87 degrees respectively.
For perspective, North Platte has never hit 100 degrees in March, April
or May. In fact the earliest North Platte has hit 100 degrees
is June 6th. Broken Bow and Imperial have hit 100 degrees as early
as May and Valentine has hit 100 degrees in May and the earliest
occurrence of 100 degrees was April 30th 1992.
Also, as mentioned in the long term discussion, forecast highs
on Wednesday remain on the lower end of guidance, so there is
potential that current forecast highs will continue to increase
over the coming days.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 4
AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg
CLIMATE...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion