380
FXUS63 KLBF 011136
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall occurring Wednesday into Wednesday night.

- Another opportunity for light rain Thursday night through
  Friday night, mainly across north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Today through Thursday...Over the next 36 hours two
disturbances, one weak, the second-much stronger, will lead to a
decent threat for widespread measurable precipitation across the
forecast area. Overnight, weak mid level warm air advection will
continue to lift across northern Nebraska into South Dakota. Radar
returns as of late evening indicated a broad area of light rainfall
across far northern Nebraska. Most of the radar activity however
isn`t reaching ground level as high cloud ceilings and dry air was
present below 10000 FT AGL. Mid level warm air advection will
continue into the morning hours Wednesday leading to a continuation
of precipitation chances across northern areas. By afternoon, a
second, stronger shortwave trough, will cross the central Rockies
midday, approaching the front range of Colorado by 00z Thursday.
Donwstream of this feature, abundant mid and high level cloudiness
will increase on Wednesday. With easterly and southeasterly winds in
place across the forecast area, the combination of upslope and
overcast skies, will limit the warmup this afternoon. The forecast
initialized with the NBM seemed warm and highs were scaled back
toward the cooler MET guidance. This seemed to be a good ending
point on temps given the low level up sloping conditions and led to
highs in the lower 40s in the northeast, to the middle 50s in far SW
Nebraska. As the trough emerges onto the plains of eastern Colorado
late Wednesday afternoon, increasing isentropic lift and mid level
warm air advection, will lift from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Light precipitation will develop
across southwestern Nebraska, spreading into the Sandhills, central
and north central Nebraska overnight into Thursday morning. As for
precipitation chances, the greatest threat appears to be from 00z to
12z Thursday. The latest NBM ensemble probabilistic forecast has a
80+ % chance of at least 0.05 inches of QPF for almost the entire
forecast area, with the exception of the northeastern Panhandle.
Along a corridor from North Platte to O`Neill, the probabilities
increase to 90 to 100%. The inherited forecast had a broad swath of
categorical pops from SW into NE portions of the forecast area
tonight and little changes were made to the inherited forecast. One
minor change was to place a threat for thunder in southern portions
of the forecast area this evening. This was initialized from the NBM
forecast. Looking at the latest NAM12 soln, there is an indication
of some negative H800 LI`s over SW Nebraska this evening, so the
threat for thunder is plausible. Overnight, the H5 disturbance will
quickly cross Nebraska, ending up over northeastern portions of the
state by 12z Thursday. The threat for precipitation will quickly
shift east, exiting northeastern areas by midday Thursday. Low
amplitude ridging will build in behind the shortwave trough and in
advance of a secondary, stronger H5 low located over the NW CONUS.
With the ridge building into the area, warm air advection will
quickly increase from SW into central Nebraska Thursday. With
clearing skies noted across the southwestern half of the forecast
area, afternoon highs will reach into the 60s with lower 70s in far
SW Nebraska. Highs in the northeast. will struggle to get out of the
40s thanks to expected cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The GFS ensemble brings a closed low into eastern Idaho by
early Thursday evening and into eastern Wyoming by 12Z Friday,
south central South Dakota by 00Z Saturday and west central
Minnesota 12Z Saturday. A cyclonically curved jet across
northern CO and the Nebraska panhandle Thursday night will move
eastward on Friday, providing upper level divergence. Likely
POPs Thursday night into Friday across north central Nebraska.
The POPS quickly drop off to a slight chance near I80. Chance
POPs across north central Nebraska Friday night. With the area
south of the H5 low track, and largely within a dry slot, only
north central Nebraska is expected to receive any light rainfall
amounts. NBM probability of greater than a tenth of an inch is
60 to 75 percent across far northern Nebraska, to only 40
percent further south along Highways 2 and 91.

Windy conditions on Friday across the west and Saturday across
all of western and north central Nebraska.

Friday and Saturday will remain cooler in the mid to upper 40s
northern NE, and mid to upper 50s south. Dry and mild Sunday
through Tuesday from the upper 50s and 60s, with low 70s
possible far southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The main aviation concern will be lowing ceilings to MVFR by
22Z, and lowing to IFR after 00Z Thursday. A weather system will
bring light rain across western Nebraska Thursday evening, with
visibilities as low as 3SM from 01Z through 12Z Thursday. Winds
will increase to near 12015G22KT this morning and persist into
the afternoon, then diminish to AOB 12KT after 00Z Thursday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion