281
FXUS63 KLBF 311134
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog, locally dense, across southwest NE into the southeast
  panhandle through mid morning. Shower chances increasing across much
  of the area by late morning into this afternoon.

- Showers become widespread Sunday night, with embedded
  thunderstorms.

- Rain continues Monday and Monday night, with showers
  eventually tracking out of the region on Tuesday.

- Very gusty conditions are possible Monday and Tuesday, with
  sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts greater than 50 mph.

- Cooler, drier weather returns mid week to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Today and Tonight...A shortwave trough currently from southeast KS
into north central OK will lift northeast into central NE through
northwest MO by late this afternoon. Stratus with patchy fog will
occur this morning, with some dense fog possible across southwest NE
into the central Sandhills through mid morning. Increasing shower
chances this morning across southwest into central NE. Shower
chances this afternoon across most of the forecast area, with 50 to
70 POPs near and east of Highway 83. Rainfall amounts will be light
however from a trace to around 0.10 inch. Additional chances for
showers will also exist this evening for areas east of Highway 83,
with dry conditions west. Highs today will range from 55 to 60,
except low 60s far northern Nebraska. South winds will increase to
10 to 20 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 40s
with patchy fog returning to southwest Nebraska into the western
Sandhills.

Sunday and Sunday night...At 12Z Sunday, a deep upper trough will be
onshore along the West Coast, as a southern stream trough moves into
Baja Mexico. Weak upper ridging will exist across the Central
Plains. The upper trough will progress eastward Sunday, and move
over the Intermountain West and moving into the Four Corners further
south by 06Z Monday. Strong warm air advection at H85 will advect
into western Nebraska with shower chance increasing to 40 to 60
percent by late evening, then categorical much of the area after
midnight. Elevated instability with MUCAPEs from 200-500 J/KG
overnight supportive of a chance for thunderstorms as well. NBM
probabilities of exceeding 0.25 inch is from 60 to 70 percent near
and east of Highway 83 for Sunday night. Highs Sunday 60 to 65 with
south southeast winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon and
persisting into Sunday night. This will keep lows Sunday night mild
in the upper 40s west to lower 50s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The upper level trough remains just to the west of the region on
Monday, which will help track a surface low across the region. The
upper level pattern will also continue to support Pacific moisture
advection across the region, which will continue to support rain
chances throughout the day on Monday into the overnight hours. While
most of the region is expected to receive rainfall, the best chances
for higher rainfall remains areas east of Highway 83. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show an 80 to 90 percent chance of
total rainfall exceeding half an inch for areas along and east of
Highway 83, further building confidence in this possibility.
However, with the low pressure system tracking across the region,
very strong winds are expected, with very gusty conditions Monday
afternoon. Throughout the afternoon, the windiest conditions are
expected to be west of Highway 83, where sustained winds of 20 to 35
mph are possible, with gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible. By the
evening, expecting that most of the region will be seeing these
gusty conditions.

Overnight, a cold front tracks in from the northwest, which will
continue to support precipitation and gusty winds through the night.
Latest guidance brings the cold front in slightly quicker, which may
introduce some cooler overnight lows across portions of western
Nebraska. However, lows are expected to remain above freezing and
temperatures aloft are expected to hover right around freezing. This
should support mostly liquid precipitation, though cannot rule out
some snow mixing in across portions of northwest Nebraska,
especially for areas around Pine Ridge. Precipitation is expected to
fall off as the front passes, with most of the showers out of the
region by mid afternoon. However, will still see some very gusty
winds again on Tuesday, with sustained northwest winds of 20 to 30
mph, gusting 45 to 50 mph.

Wednesday onward, expecting a cooler, drier pattern will settle in
across the region. Highs each day are only expected to climb into
the lower to mid 50s, with lows around freezing. However, by the
weekend, another upper level trough begins to track in from the
west, which may support precipitation chances next weekend. There is
still some uncertainty in timing, so will continue to monitor the
forecast trends for now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A stratus deck remains across western and north central Nebraska,
bringing widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings. Fog is observed north of a
warm front across northern portions of the state, impacting the KVTN
terminal. Expecting this fog to burn off in the next few hours,
especially as surface winds begin to increase. By late morning,
southerly winds may gust 20 to 25 knots across the region. However,
rain showers are also expected across portions of southwest and
central Nebraska, which may bring some localized impacts to
visibility. With the influx of additional moisture, expecting
ceilings to remain low today, with MVFR and IFR ceilings prevailing.
There may be brief breaks to low end VFR throughout the day, but
overall expecting lower ceilings will quickly return.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion