230
FXUS63 KLBF 220521
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1121 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions are expected for the start of next week with warming
temperatures.
- A few passing disturbances will bring slightly cooler
temperatures and precipitation chances around the middle of
the week.
- Temperatures next week will largely favor above normal and
with breezy conditions could promote increased fire weather
concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Earlier today, light snow was observed across mainly southwest
Nebraska. Accumulations remained minimal, at or below a few tenths
of an inch, before activity shifted east. Snow cover from Thursday
lingers across much of the Platte Valley north into the Sandhills
and east through central Nebraska. This has helped to hold
temperatures back locally with highs only reaching the upper 20s to
middle 30s as of ~2pm CST. Increasing mid-level cloudiness was
moving in from southwest South Dakota. This was associated with a
weak mid-level PV anomaly and is not expected to bring any changes
to the sensible weather outside of mostly cloudy skies across the
northern half of the forecast area.
For tonight, surface heights will increase as high pressure settles
south into the Northern Plains. This will force a backdoor cool
front with reinforcing cold air in from the northeast. Sub-zero lows
may return in the far western Sandhills as a result but with no
winds, cold weather headlines are not expected. Elsewhere, lows will
range from 0-10F which is nearly 10-20F below normal for late
February. While the setup is usually supportive of fog, winds off
the surface remain elevated and so will keep any mention out of the
forecast for now. Recent runs of high resolution guidance supports
this idea with little to no signal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Sunday...High temperatures will likely be similar to Saturday`s
values, even with the frontal boundary straddling the area.
Temperatures at h85 actually show a slight increase day-over-day
though lingering snowpack should still help to hold us back. Leaned
on NBM/MAV blend as the latter seems to handle observed snow depth a
little better. Recent MET guidance has trended more in line with the
early MAV output, increasing confidence in the going forecast. Winds
remain variable across the area but speeds should remain at or below
20 mph with the strongest east of Highway 183.
Monday/Tuesday...upper ridging builds across the Desert Southwest
with the Central High Plains on the northeast periphery. This
promotes general west-northwesterly downsloping flow. This type of
setup usually leads to overachieving temperatures with persistent
upward trends in subsequent forecasts. The current forecast high for
both Monday and Tuesday are around the median value in the NBM
forecast envelope. Higher forecast percentile output is
approximately 5F warmer with outlier members exceeding the forecast
by 7-10F. Will continue to highlight increased fire concerns with
elevated conditions appearing a safe minimum.
Wednesday...temperatures will be knocked down a bit following a
passing cool front that could bring some light precipitation. NBM
probabilities don`t highlight any noteworthy QPF potential with
around 10-20% chances of exceeding 0.10" anywhere in the local area.
EPS/GEFS solutions are even more pessimistic with < 10% output. The
deterministic GFS suggests a greater potential for wetting moisture
with a more pronounced h5 shortwave and surface low crossing the
area. At this time, this appears to be an outlier with ECWMF closer
in line with the ensemble guidance. The current forecast calls for
PoPs nearing 40-50% during the afternoon and evening. Believe we`ll
see these decrease in the coming days. Nevertheless, a slight
cooldown is likely as highs fall to the 50s for most with middle 60s
holding in our southwest.
Thursday/Friday..surface high pressure following the cool front will
settle south with westerly downsloping flow returning to the area.
As heights aloft rebound behind the passing shortwave trough, h85
temperatures climb to the teens degC. H7 trajectories draw in dry
air from the Great Basin and this should support renewed fire
weather concerns as they push downslope from the Front Range. Folks
should continue to monitor later forecasts as highs returning to the
50s/60s with gusty west winds will renew greater fire weather
concerns again. The current forecast has some critical conditions in
our far southwest Thursday with more expansive coverage on Friday. A
lot can change between now and then but given the overall pattern,
believe some magnitude of fire weather concerns is a given.
Saturday and beyond...greater uncertainty arrives for next weekend.
Large scale troughing sets up over central Canada with modest west-
northwesterly flow aloft persisting. While the brunt of any upper-
level dynamics remains well north and east of the local area, a
passing frontal boundary/surface trough may be enough to promote
some light precipitation potential and cooler temperatures.
Certainty in the NBM solution is nearly non-existent as inner-
quartile temperature ranges exceed 30F. Cold air will infiltrate the
Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley but the question is
how quick and far west this Arctic airmass makes it. The going
forecast splits the difference with a closer hedge to the slower
arriving cold air solution. This paints highs in the 40s to middle
50s across the area for Saturday but just know in the coming days
that this will likely adjust, perhaps considerably, as NWP guidance
hones in on a more precise solution.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Winds will remain light from the west or northwest overnight
with clear skies expected across western and north central
Nebraska. Winds will shift to the north midday, then northeast
toward evening. Some scattered high cloudiness will drift into
the area this afternoon and will persist through 06z Sunday.
Ceilings will be around 25000 FT AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion