653
FXUS63 KLBF 051143
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief period of dry weather is expected through Monday
  evening. Breezy conditions are expected across the western
  Sandhills, but otherwise expecting around normal temperatures
  and quiet weather.

- Warmer temperatures and recurring rain chances appear likely
  for much of the extended forecast though confidence in wetting
  rains remains limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Upper level ridging builds across the region today, ushering in a
period of quieter weather through Monday evening. Southerly flow
tracks into the region, supporting advection of warmer temperatures,
but with weaker flow, this is expected to bring mostly seasonal
temperatures to slightly above seasonal temperatures over the next
few days. For reference, typical highs for July 5th and 6th are
around 89 degrees across western and north central Nebraska.
Currently, forecast highs are in the low to mid 90s, which is right
around the 75th percentile compared to local climate. All this to
say, while temperatures may be slightly warmer than typical, it is
certainly nothing out of the ordinary for early July.  In addition
to the seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures, may also
see some breezy conditions across the western Sandhills the next few
days. Overall, not expecting anything too out of the ordinary for
western Nebraska, with sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph, gusting
25 to 30 mph out of the south the next couple of days. While these
aren`t the strongest of wind gusts, they could have impacts on those
with outdoor recreation plans, so at least something to keep in mind
over the next few days.

By Monday evening, an upper level shortwave is expected to track
through the larger flow pattern, which may push a weak surface
system across the Dakotas. As this system tracks east, it may
generate a few showers and thunderstorms, mostly across South
Dakota, but a few showers and storms could clip portions of
northwest and northern Nebraska. Very little upper level support is
expected across the region, with better shear remaining well to the
north across North Dakota. Forecast soundings across northwest
Nebraska Monday evening indicate potential for around 10 to 20 knots
deep layer shear, and very modest elevated CAPE. Given this meager
set up, though showers and thunderstorms are possible, not expecting
any severe weather from these potential storms at this time. As
showers quickly clip out of the region overnight, expect mostly
cloudy skies in their wake, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Tuesday...Upper ridge remains situated over the Four Corners region
through mid-week. A subtle shortwave will cross the central and
northern Plains during the day and should lead to the greatest
rainfall potential of the forecast period. A warm front will lift
north and stall near the NE/SD border with a crashing cold front
later that evening. Moderate to strong instability will be possible
but shear appears to be limited. That said, can`t rule out some
severe potential so will need to monitor this setup in the coming
days. NBM highlights better rain chances north across the Dakotas
(50-70% of > 0.25").

Wednesday and beyond...flow aloft flattens as ridge retrogrades and
a upper-level jet crosses the Pacific Northwest. This largely zonal
flow will allow near to slightly above normal temperatures to
continue through late week. Another more pronounced shortwave will
eject out of the Central Rockies sometime around Thursday and should
lead to greater rainfall chances Thursday night into early Friday.
EPS/GEFS output highlights 60-80% probabilities of exceeding 0.10"
for areas west of Highway 83. This will likely be the last real shot
at precipitation however as upstream ridging amplifies across the
Great Basin with broad northwesterly flow over the central and
northern Plains. Extended NWP guidance varies in placement and
magnitude of anticipated high pressure aloft. ECMWF Extreme Forecast
Index shows growing anomalies over Wyoming/Colorado towards SLC and
this coincides with upper-level heights approaching their
climatological maximums. This supports the modest warming that NBM
continues to advertise median values in the middle to upper 90s with
outlier percentile values suggesting fairly expansive triple digits.
Both EPS/GEFS show 90-100% potential for daytime highs to surpass
90F by late next weekend with 30-60% potential to surpass 100F. Will
need to closely monitor this threat in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Skies will remain clear to mostly clear with light southerly
winds through the daytime Sunday. Winds should weaken a bit
tonight though modest LLWS may become an issue for all area
terminals. Have included a mention at both terminals, ending
shortly before daybreak on Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion