639
FXUS63 KLBF 272341
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
641 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected through Thursday night

- Potential of fog Wednesday morning with greatest potential
  across southwest and central Nebraska into the southern
  Sandhills.

- Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week
  with highs in the 60s and maybe even a few locations reaching
  70 degrees on Thursday.

- Chance of precipitation Friday through Sunday as a more
  active weather pattern arrives

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Update to include widespread fog development tonight across
southwest NE, central NE into the central Sandhills.
Visibilities will fall to a mile or less, with locally dense fog
of a 1/4 mile or less possible. The fog will persist until 10
AM CDT Wednesday, then quickly lift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The main concern in the short term will be once again a
chance of fog, along with temperatures for tonight and tomorrow. For
the fog potential could see fog develop by late this evening as
temperatures cool after sunset and sfc winds become light and
variable. Uncertainty remains on how widespread fog development
will be again tonight, with greater confidence in patchy fog
developing across the river valleys, but lesser confidence in
widespread/dense fog development. If temperatures area able to
reach the forecast highs and the remaining stratus deck this
afternoon clears out, then would expect fog development to hang
off until after midnight, but for areas that stay stuck in the
stratus this afternoon, they could see highs much cooler than
expected, thus potentially seeing an early development of fog
given dewpoints will be in the upper 40s and current
observations have them in the upper 40s to low 50s.

As for the overnight lows tonight, did increase temperatures
slightly overnight, given the expected increase in low clouds
overnight, should keep temperature from plummeting too much
tonight, thus increased temperatures to mostly mid to upper 40s.
Putting climate into perspective this keeps temperatures around
15 degrees above seasonal lows.

Looking at high temperatures for tomorrow, made only minor
adjustments with the inherited forecast, mainly across southwest
Nebraska. Lowered highs to 70s or lower, probability of temperatures
exceeding 70 degrees is generally around 30 percent or less
across SW Nebraska, which leads to the greater confidence of an
earlier frontal passage. A weak cold front is expected to drop
southwest from SD into the northwest Sandhills by Wednesday
morning, and going with the faster frontal passage solution
should be through much of the forecast area by 18-19z. Although
there will be WAA across southern Nebraska, the earlier passage
will hinder some of the daytime heating and thus do not expect
temperatures to exceed 70 degrees. Winds will also increase
behind the front out of the northwest around 10 to 25 mph, with
the strongest winds across western Nebraska. Wind gusts up to 35
mph will also be possible Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Focus in the long term turns to a more active weather
pattern setting up heading into the weekend and early next week.
Discrepancies still remain between the models with the
disturbance late Friday into Saturday, leading to lower
confidence in the track of the system and duration, as one
solutions leads to more widespread coverage of precipitation,
and another solution pushes the system a little further east,
favoring less precipitation chances across western Nebraska.
Although there is lower confidence in the placement of the
precipitation, there is at this time better confidence in the
temperatures remaining above freezing so do expect precipitation
mode to mainly be all rain Friday into Saturday.

Towards the end of the forecast period, a stronger, more organized
system, potentially a closed low system tracks in off the Pacific
Coast over the weekend and slowly ejects into the Central Plains by
early next week. High uncertainty still exist with this system as it
remains off the coast and there will still be the potential for
changes with the track of the system as it continues to evolve, but
something worth watching over the upcoming forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The main aviation concern will be fog development tonight,
lasting through 15Z Wednesday. This will include southwest and
central NE into portions of north central NE. At KLBF, 1SM BR by
04Z, with 1/2SM FG 09Z-14Z. 1/4SM FG is possible, improving to
MVFR after 16Z. AT KVTN, P6SM is expected, though IFR conditions
are possible 09Z-15Z. Will make adjustments as needed for KLBF
and KVTN with the next TAF issuance at 06Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion