454
FXUS63 KLBF 051146
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly quiet conditions are expected this afternoon with the
main threat for thunderstorms off to the east of the forecast
area.
- Mainly dry and much warmer temperatures will arrive on Saturday
and Sunday with highs in the 90s.
- After slightly "cooler" highs in the 80s Monday, readings will
climb back into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday with possible highs reaching 100+ degrees Wednesday
and Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Ongoing convection over northern portions of the forecast area
is expected to exit the forecast area by sunrise this morning.
Ongoing convection and a weak mid level trough of low pressure,
traversing North Dakota into Minnesota, will force a frontal
boundary south through the forecast area today. By this
afternoon, this feature is expected to lie from northwestern
Kansas into south central and southeastern Nebraska. This
feature will serve as the focal point for storm initiation,
especially over south central into southeastern Nebraska this
afternoon as rich low level moisture pools along the front in
south central and southeastern Nebraska. The latest CAMS
initiate convection just off to the east of the forecast area
this afternoon and keep it out of the forecast area. The latest
NBM ensemble forecast has less than a 10 percent for > 0.01
inches of precipitation today in the far eastern forecast area.
That being said, decided to take out the mention of
precipitation this afternoon and tonight. As for highs today,
with the frontal boundary expected to be south of the forecast
area, decided to lower highs with the greatest modifications
along and north of I-80. Left some mid to upper 80s across
southwestern Nebraska. Low amplitude ridging will build into the
central and northern plains on Saturday. Much warmer air will
lift north into the forecast area Saturday with highs reaching
well into the 90s with dry conditions forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Low amplitude ridging will transition east Sunday, followed by
the development of a broad, low amplitude trough of low pressure
aloft across the western CONUS. Gulf moisture will persist
Sunday and Monday across the area and will keep temps from
torching out. However, by Tuesday, low level moisture is driven
east as a persistent surface trough of low pressure develops
across western Nebraska. With drier air expected and strong warm
air advection from the desert southwest, highs will reach well
into the 90s Tuesday through Thursday, and have a decent
probability of topping the century mark Tuesday and Wednesday.
In fact the latest MEX guidance has highs around 100 for North
Platte Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest NBM ensembles have a 40
% chance for topping 100 degrees Tuesday for North Platte. By
Wednesday, this probability increases to 70 %. FWIW, record
highs for next Wednesday are 102, 101, 101 and 104 for North
Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow and Imperial respectively. The
current forecast would break or tie record highs Wednesday for
all the locations mentioned above with the exception of
Valentine. As for precipitation chances in the extended, the
best chances appear to be on Sunday night mainly over the
western half of the forecast area. Other than Sunday night, the
threat for organized precipitation appears fairly low per the
latest NBM ensemble forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Local IFR ceilings will persist through mid-morning across
central into southwest Nebraska. These will lift with all areas
VFR late this morning through tonight. Surface winds will be
east to northeast at 5-15 kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion