465
FXUS63 KLBF 150538
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of
western and north central Nebraska Sunday afternoon, due to
near record temperatures, low humidity, and gusty southwest
winds.
- Temperatures remain roughly 25 to 30 degrees above average
into the middle of the week. Forecast highs on Sunday are
expected to potentially break daily records.
- A mostly dry forecast is expected through late week. Although
there is a slight chance of rain showers across northern
Nebraska Tuesday night, confidence in wetting rainfall remains
low.
- Near critical to critical fire weather concerns remain
through Wednesday, with the highest concern on Tuesday
afternoon. Forecast highs are expected to remain well above
average, with low humidity, and gusty winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Skies are expected to remain mostly clear this evening and tonight,
with mostly light and variable winds across western and north
central Nebraska. This will allow for slightly cooler overnight
lows, with temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 20s. However,
the bigger story tonight will be dew points dropping into the teens
to low 20s, bringing overnight relative humidity recovery to around
60 to 70 percent across the region. This relatively dry night will
help set the stage for Sunday`s fire weather concerns across the
region.
By Sunday afternoon, skies still remain mostly clear, allowing for
ample daytime heating. Current forecast highs are in the upper 60s,
with some locations touching the lower 70s. These highs are roughly
25 to 30 degrees above the seasonal average for mid February, and in
fact, are forecast to break several daily high temperature records
across western and north central Nebraska. With these high
temperatures and the poor overnight humidity recovery tonight,
minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop below 20
percent across all of western and north central Nebraska, with
portions of the Sandhills and the Panhandle under 15 percent for
Sunday afternoon. In addition to the near record temperatures and
low relative humidity, winds become gusty out of the southwest, with
peak gusts of 25 to 30 mph. This combination sets up critical fire
weather conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska
Sunday afternoon, so have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red
Flag Warning, and have expanded the Warning further east.
Cloud cover starts to move in Sunday evening, which will help keep
overnight lows at or above freezing into Monday morning. HUmidity
recovery remains poor, only recovering to around 50 to 60 percent
for areas west of Highway 83. By daybreak, cloud cover should begin
to break up, leaving partly cloudy skies throughout the day Monday.
This will again bring a pattern for strong daytime warming, with
highs again remaining 25 to 30 degrees above average. This will
again bring low relative humidity across the region, with all of
western and north central Nebraska expected to drop below 25
percent. However, winds remain on the lighter side, which should
limit a greater fire weather threat for Monday afternoon. In fact,
the strongest wind gusts reach up to around 20 mph in the Panhandle
for a few hours. However, with the well above average temperatures
and low humidity, care should be taken with any fire ignition
sources.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
In the long term, attention remains focused on Tuesday, which looks
to be another potential day of critical fire weather concerns across
western and north central Nebraska. Guidance continues to suggest an
upper level trough extended over the western United States, with a
surface low developing off the lee of the Rockies Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS continue to
favor a more northerly solution, forming the low across northeast
Wyoming and tracking east across South Dakota. While this pattern
brings somewhat higher mid to upper level moisture, the location of
the surface low will support rapid drying in the low levels, largely
driven from downslope flow.
This pattern is expected to bring a wedge of low relative humidity
across most of the region, with most of the region at or below 25
percent, and portions of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills at or
below 15 percent relative humidity. All of this will also be
accompanied by another day of high temperatures 25 to 30 degrees
above average, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s in
portions of southwest Nebraska. The location of the surface low,
aided by the downslope flow, will set up westerly winds across the
region, with strongest winds across the Panhandle and Sandhills.
These stronger winds are expected to be around 20 to 20 mph
sustained, with gusts up to 40, mainly west of Highway 83. For areas
east of Highway 83, still expecting 15 to 20 mph winds gusting up to
30 mph during the afternoon. All of this combined sets up higher
confidence in near critical to critical fire weather concerns across
most of the region Tuesday afternoon, but especially across the
Panhandle, Sandhills, and southwest Nebraska. Have opted to hold off
on fire weather headlines at this time, but if the forecast remains
on track, there may be a need with follow on forecasts.
Another thing to keep an eye on for Tuesday is the potential for
light rain showers across northern Nebraska. As the low tracks east,
it is expected to bring precipitation across the Dakotas. Some of
the lighter precipitation may track further south into northern
Nebraska, but should be encountering very dry low layers. This will
greatly diminish any chances of precipitation across the region, as
there is a strong possibility any rain should evaporate prior to
reaching the ground. Somewhat further backing this up is the latest
ensemble data from both the GEFS and the European, which both keep
chances of measureable rainfall less than 20 percent across northern
Nebraska Tuesday night. As for chances of one tenth of an inch, both
ensembles show virtually no chance for Tuesday night. Long story
short, low chances of precipitation Tuesday night, and if the rain
can over come the hostile environment, very little would be
expected.
The evolution of Tuesday`s event will greatly determine how the set
up remains for Wednesday. A cold front is expected to track into the
region, bringing some cooler temperatures. However, these cooler
temperatures still remain warmer than average, with expected highs
in the 50s. This will also bring the potential for some gusty winds,
initially out of the west, becoming northerly behind the front.
Winds around 15 to 20 mph are expected, with gusts up to 30 mph.
Expecting another night of poor humidity recovery on Tuesday night,
with relative humidity recovering around 40 percent. This will allow
another dry day on Wednesday, dropping afternoon humidity values
around 15 to 25 percent across the region. Will need to keep an eye
on the potential overlap of all these conditions, as sufficient
overlap could lead to additional near critical to critical fire
weather concerns.
By the end of the week, as an upper level trough tracks across the
western United States, a surface low is expected to track across the
Plains, and this is expected to bring our next chances of
precipitation. However, uncertainty remains in this track, leading
to a bit of a discrepancy in ensemble guidance. The European
ensemble tracks the low a bit further north, which brings greater
chances of precipitation late week, compared to the GEFS, which
tracks further south, bringing lower precipitation chances. However,
between these 2 ensembles, there is an increasing chance of
measurable precipitation across portions of the forecast region,
ranging from 40 to 60 percent in the GEFS and 70 to 80 percent in
the European. Both ensembles remain pessimistic in anything over one
tenth of an inch or even one inch of snow, with both remaining under
a 40 percent chance. Will again need to keep an eye on this
potential system, as the low`s track will greatly determine our
weather. However, something that does remain consistent with this
upper level trough is the return of more seasonal high temperatures.
In fact, highs by late week are expected to return to the upper 40s
to lower 50s, which is right about normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska the rest of tonight through Sunday. Some
increase in mid and high level clouds Sunday afternoon and
Sunday evening. Winds will become gusty from the southwest this
afternoon (Sunday) at 15-25 kts. Winds quickly decrease after
sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
A Red Flag Warning goes into effect Sunday afternoon across all of
western and north central Nebraska. As mentioned in the short term
discussion, high temperatures on Sunday afternoon will potentially
break daily high temperature records, which will help drive lower
relative humidity values across the region. In fact, the latest
forecast trends pushed the area of lower humidity even further east,
prompting the expansion of the Red Flag Warning. Winds are still
expected to remain gusty out of the southwest tomorrow afternoon,
with peak gusts up to 30 mph across western Nebraska. Further east,
winds are expected to remain somewhat lighter, but still gusts up to
25 mph will be possible during the afternoon.
Fire weather concerns remain on Monday, largely driven by low
humidity and abnormally warm temperatures. However, lighter winds on
Monday should keep conditions elevated, at best. More substantial
fire weather concerns return Tuesday and Wednesday, driven by
widespread gusty winds and low humidity, as well as well above
average temperatures.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Sunday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion