164
FXUS63 KLBF 212011
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A strong cold front tonight will bring gusty northerly winds to
the area late tonight into Sunday morning.
- After near normal temperatures Sunday, readings will climb daily,
peaking on Wednesday where record highs are possible.
- Cooler temperatures to end the week with highs in the 60s/lower
70s Thursday, 50s Friday and upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday.
- Mainly dry conditions expected over the next 7 days with a small
chance for rain showers Sunday night/Monday morning. Any
precipitation amounts will be very light.
- Fire weather concerns continue Monday through Thursday as near
critical or critical fire conditions are possible.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored over
the SW CONUS and centered over southern Arizona. Ridging extended
north of this feature into southern Saskatchewan and southern
Alberta. West of the ridge axis, a shortwave trough of low pressure
was noted along the Washington and northwestern Oregon coasts.
Northwest of this shortwave trough, closed low pressure was noted in
the Gulf of Alaska. East of the ridge axis, was a broad trough of
low pressure which extended from Quebec, south to eastern portions
of the Bahamas. At the surface, hot temperatures, clear skies and
west winds, gusting up to around 25 MPH were present across western
and north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from
83 degrees at Valentine and Gordon, to 93 degrees at Imperial and
Broken Bow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Westerly winds will diminish slightly ahead of an approaching
cold front during the early to mid evening hours. This will be
followed by a strong cold FROPA overnight. This front will
approach the SD/NE border around Midnight CDT, passing quickly
south and clearing the forecast area in the 3 to 4 AM CDT time
frame. Northerly winds immediately behind the front will be
gusty with a 3 to 6 hour window of 40 to 50 MPH winds. Winds
will then diminish from north to south during the morning hours
Sunday. By afternoon, wind gust potential will fall to 10 to 20
MPH. Low temperatures tonight will be fairly mild given the
degree of winds and mixing overnight with readings in the upper
30s to lower 40s forecast. Highs on Sunday will range from the
mid to upper 50s in northern Nebraska, to the lower 60s over SW
Nebraska. Minimum RH Sunday afternoon will range from 25 to 35
percent and with winds diminishing in the afternoon, fire
weather concerns on Sunday appear to be marginal at best. Winds
will diminish further Sunday night as high pressure builds into
central and eastern Nebraska. Overnight on the western periphery
of the surface high, weak mid level forcing will track into
southwestern Nebraska. Mid level warm air advection may lead to
a minor threat for precipitation in SW Nebraska. This area then
transitions east Monday morning into central, then eastern
Nebraska. For now, will handle the threat with low pops ~ 20-30
percent as the QPF forecast looks abysmal with this forcing.
FWIW the latest NBM ensembles indicate less than a 15% chance
for 0.05" QPF with this system and around a 20% chance for
0.01". Lows will be in the lower to middle 30s across the area
so some snowflakes may mix in with rain early Monday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Southerly winds will increase across western and central
Nebraska Monday as the surface high builds east into central and
eastern Iowa. By afternoon, Bufkit soundings are indicating
good mixing potential with wind gusts of 25 to 40 MPH Monday
afternoon. With the increased southerly winds Monday, warm air
advection will push highs into the mid to upper 60s for the
western 2/3rds of the forecast area. Minimum RH by afternoon
reaches 20 to 30 percent across the area. Given the gusty winds,
near critical fire weather conditions appear probable at least
across the western 2/3rds of the forecast area. More about this
in the fire section below. Tuesday will feature warmer
temperatures with highs reaching the 70s to near 80. An inverted
trough will develop Tuesday afternoon, extending from the
southern panhandle into northeastern Nebraska. In spite of
minimum RH reaching 15 to 20 percent Tuesday afternoon the
inverted trough will limit wind speeds alleviating near critical
or critical fire conditions. By midweek, a northern stream
shortwave will suppress the ridge across the west on Wednesday.
With the ridge breaking down, very warm air will surge into
western and central Nebraska, leading to high temperatures in
the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s. The latest temp forecast
Wednesday utilizes the 25th percentile of the NBM which calls
for middle 80s for North Platte. Feel highs Wednesday will be
well above the 25th%ile and feel upper 80s to around 90 is a
better fit. Yesterday, based on the GFS soln, some mid 90s were
not out of the question in far SW Nebraska. However, with the
GFS now cooler with its forecast H85 temps ~ 2 to 4 C cooler
today, upper 80s seem reasonable. As stated earlier, the current
forecast is middle 80s for the North Platte area and feel this
will need to be trended upward if statistical guidance continues
to fall in line with the 50th to 75th %ile of the NBM forecast.
With the very warm temps, low relative humidity and wind
potential, critical fire weather conditions may develop for
portions of the forecast area. More about that in the fire
section below. A strong cold front will pass through the area
Wednesday night. Highs on Thursday will be middle 60s to middle
70s. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 50s to
lower 60s respectively. Mainly dry conditions are expected
through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
A strong cold front will pass through western and north central
Nebraska tonight from 05z to 08z. A shift in wind direction to
the north will occur with passage of this front. Wind gusts up
to 35 to 40 KTS are possible during a 3 to 6 hour window behind
the front. Winds will begin to slowly diminish Sunday morning
with gusts up to 20 KTS possible around 18z Sunday. Skies will
remain mainly clear through 12z Sunday with a few to scattered
high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Some lower clouds will move
into northern Nebraska Sunday morning with broken ceilings
around 2500 FT AGL possible at the KVTN terminal after 13z
Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026
Near critical or critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday
through Thursday across the area. At this time, the greatest threat
for critical conditions are Monday and Wednesday. Monday will feature
minimum RH in the 18 to 28 percent range with afternoon wind gusts
up to 40 MPH possible. Tuesday will see much lighter winds with
afternoon gust potential up to 20 to 25 MPH and minimum RH of 15 to
25 percent. Wednesday will feature min RH of 13 to 23 percent with
wind gusts of 15 to 25 MPH. With a cold front expected Wednesday
night, initially was not too concerned about critical fire weather
conditions Thursday. However, winds will be gusty behind the front
Thursday and drier air behind the front will lead to min RH Thursday
afternoon of 15 to 25 percent. Beyond Thursday, cooler temperatures
will develop across the area, leading to min RH in the 20 to 30
percent range.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ204-
206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion