479
FXUS63 KLBF 231131
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
631 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a good chance for rain Wednesday night through
  Thursday night across the area. Even though there is a good
  chance for rainfall across the whole forecast area, the
  greatest threat for wetting rain is south of a line Ogallala
  to O`Neill Thursday night into Friday.

- Warm and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with
  highs 75 to 85.

- Rain chances return Sunday night through Tuesday as a cold
  front drops south through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Today through Thursday...Ridging aloft will transition
east today placing the forecast area on the western periphery of
high pressure aloft over the Arklatex. A surface trough of low
pressure will deepen later today, resulting in southerly winds and
breezy conditions by afternoon. However, easterly and southeasterly
winds will result in a cloudy start across the forecast area.
Looking at low level RH fields in the latest NAM12 soln for this
morning, it appears we should see an abundance of cloud cover today
across the area. This abundance in cloud cover should limit highs to
the upper 60s in the east to middle 70s in the far southwest. The
NBM tonight did trend slightly lower on its forecast highs and this
seems reasonable given the expected degree of cloud cover today.
Later this afternoon, weak mid level forcing will lift north through
eastern Colorado, approaching southwestern Nebraska this evening.
The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase with a broad
area of precipitation developing from SW into central and
northeastern Nebraska. The latest NBM ensembles have a better than
70% chance of 6hr QPF > 0.01" east of a line from Ogallala to
Ainsworth ending at 7 AM Thursday morning. When this threshold is
increased to 0.10" the probabilities only fall around 10 percent
east of the before mentioned line. On the heels of exiting
precipitation early Thursday morning, a second, stronger disturbance
will slowly lift northeast from Colorado into Nebraska. This system
has the potential to produce widespread 1.00"+ rainfall from SW into
central and northeastern Nebraska. The latest deterministic
solns including the NAM12, RRFS, Canadian and GFS have a nice
swath of 1 to 2" QPF`s along and east of a line from roughly
Ogallala to Ainsworth. This is also supported with the latest
NBM ensembles which has a 70 to 100% chance of 24hr QPF`s
exceeding 0.50" east of the before mentioned line (ending at 7
AM CT Friday). When the threshold is increased to 1.00", the
probabilities are 70+% south of a line from Ogallala to
Bartlett. As for the threat for heavy rain, with forecast PWAT`s
for North Platte near 1.50" Thursday morning, which is well
above the max climo of 1.34 inches, there will be plenty of
moisture to support heavy rain. Three hour FFG across SW
Nebraska is north of 2.25 inches currently. If heavy rain were
to materialize tonight, would anticipate these guidance levels
to drop, increasing the threat for flash flooding Thursday into
Thursday night. For now, will forgo any watch headlines and
assess rainfall later today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

As indicated above, widespread rain chances will continue through
Thursday night, especially south of an Ogallala through
O`Neill line. Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring
sub-tropical moisture northeastward across southwest into
eastern NE. Surface low pressure should deepen from east
central CO into northwest KS. A weak frontal boundary may extend
east of the surface low to near the NE/KS border. There remains
some disagreement between guidance on the location of this
boundary. The NAM is farthest north, the GFS farthest south,
while the RRFS is middle ground near the NE/KS border. This will
affect areas which see the highest rainfall amounts Thursday
night into Friday morning.

Precipitation chances from the NBM on Friday remain likely
across north central and central NE while ended across
southwestern areas. Do feel increasing westerlies from the
northern stream should push precipitation chances east through
the day, with some breaks of sun in the west by afternoon. Highs
to reach the mid 70s far southwest, with low 70s most
locations, and the coolest mid 60s in the northeast. Still low
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms southeast Friday
evening. Upper ridging will progress eastward across the region
Saturday and Sunday bringing in noticeably warmer highs from 75
to 85 each day along with dry conditions and mainly sunny
skies.

An upper trough over south central Canada and an upper trough
extending back across the western U.S may set up a frontal
boundary across South Dakota Sunday night, with a cold front
pushing southeast through KS into IA on Tuesday. This will bring
increasing POPS for showers and storms Sunday night into Monday,
with likely POPS Monday night and chance POPS Tuesday. Highs in
the 70s Monday will cool to the 60s to near 70 Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

IFR/MVFR ceilings will be the main aviation concern the next 24
hours. At KLBF, MVFR ceilings near OVC010 should improve to
VFR, OVC050 by 17Z. A return to MVFR conditions is expected
after 07Z, 6SM SHRA BR OVC027. At KVTN, IFR ceilings near OVC009
should improve to MVFR OVC014 by 17Z, then VFR SCT035 OVC070
after 20Z. TSRA is forecast to move into southwest Nebraska
tonight, with a refinement to include TSRA at KLBF possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion