347
FXUS63 KLBF 271148
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy, dense fog will be possible overnight into the mid
  morning hours across most of western and north central
  Nebraska. Visibility under one mile will be possible at times.

- Slightly warmer than seasonal temperatures are expected this
  week, especially during the overnight hours. Highs are mostly
  expected to remain in the mid to upper 60s, though low 70s
  will be possible.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday, with scattered
  rainfall possible Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will
  remain in the 60s through much of the period.

- A more active weather pattern may develop early next week,
  bringing the potential for more widespread precipitation and
  cooler temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 458 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Chase, Deuel, Perkins,
and Keith counties this morning. Recent NDOT camera imagery has
indicated areas of dense fog developing across portions of
southwest Nebraska, with model guidance also supporting
continued fog development through the early morning hours.
Visibilities may fall to one-quarter mile or less at times, with
fog expected to gradually dissipate later this morning as
daytime mixing increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

An upper level shortwave that was responsible for our recent
precipitation has lifted to the northeast, tracking across eastern
North Dakota. Another upper level trough is observed tracking across
the northwestern United States, with the trough axis currently
located across western Montana. This advancing trough is expected to
remain just to the north of the region, tracking another surface low
across the Dakotas, largely remaining to the north of western
Nebraska. However, this system will still have some influence on our
weather the next few days, as warmer air is pulled into the region.

A cool, damp start to the day is expected, as low layer stratus and
patchy fog persist through the overnight hours. Latest guidance
continues to suggest dewpoints remain just above the freezing mark
across most of the region, so have adjusted overnight lows to
reflect this. Plenty of low level moisture remains available given
the recent rainfall, with very light surface winds overnight and
fairly stable conditions aloft. This will set up potential for
patchy dense fog overnight, lasting into the mid morning hours
across most of the region. Latest probabilistic guidance suggests
the best chances for dense fog will remain along and south of
Interstate 80, where there is a 70 percent chance of seeing
visibility under half a mile for a few hours. However, there is
still around a 40 percent chance the rest of the region could see
visibility less than one mile in the morning fog. However, some
uncertainty remains, given the stratus layer aloft. Will continue to
keep a close eye on overnight observations to determine whether a
Dense Fog Advisory will be needed or not.

As fog dissipates and the stratus layer begins to erode, expecting
warmer temperatures to arrive by this afternoon, with highs pushing
into the upper 50s to lower 60s. This will partly be aided by the
low tracking across the Dakotas, as we sit in the region of warm air
advection. However, with this low tracking across the Dakotas, we
could also see a few hours of gusty winds, mainly along and north of
Highway 2. Southerly to southwesterly gusts of 25 to 30 mph may be
expected through the afternoon hours.

By tomorrow night, southerly flow continues across the region, which
will help keep dewpoints slightly elevated through the night. This,
combined with mostly southerly to southwesterly surface winds and
cloudy skies will keep our overnight lows on the warmer side. For
reference, typical overnight lows for late October across western
Nebraska are generally around the upper 20s. However, with this
plume of higher dewpoints, we may well remain in the mid 40s, almost
15 degrees warmer than usual. May also see some light rain showers
generated by the warm air advection across portions of southwest and
central Nebraska late night into the very early morning hours.
However, not expecting much precipitation out of these showers.

Wednesday, warm air advection continues across the region, which may
bring us some of our warmest temperatures throughout the week. While
highs are mostly expected to reach at least the upper 60s, there is
decent potential for most of the area to reach the lower 70s for a
bit on Wednesday afternoon. Much will depend on the timing of a cold
front arriving late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. If this
arrives slightly sooner, highs in the 70s are less likely. While not
expecting any precipitation with this front, we may see some
additional gusty winds, particularly across portions of the
Panhandle and western Sandhills, where afternoon gusts of 25 to 30
mph are possible. As the front passes through the evening, skies are
expected to remain clear, which combined with the cooler air
advecting in, should allow for slightly cooler overnight lows.
Expecting lows should drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s, and though
while colder than Tuesday night, still remain above average for late
October.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Thursday, a longwave trough will become established across the
western United States and Pacific Northwest as a negative PNA
pattern begins to develop. Downstream of this trough, upper-level
ridging will amplify across the central United States, resulting in
increasing 500-mb heights and generally westerly flow aloft across
the region. With the ridge remaining the dominant feature across the
central and northern Plains, increasing subsidence should support
mainly dry conditions through the day Thursday. Warmer temperatures
within the lower to middle levels will also support afternoon highs
in the middle to upper 60s across much of the area. With surface
high pressure remaining nearby, winds should remain relatively
light, with overnight lows generally in the middle to upper 40s.
Friday, a southern-stream shortwave disturbance is forecast to
approach the region ahead of the broader longwave trough across the
western United States. Increasing southeasterly low-level flow will
support moisture advection into the central Plains, while increasing
mid- and upper-level moisture accompanies the approaching
disturbance. Recent model guidance has begun to show a stronger
signal for precipitation development as increasing moisture overlaps
with forcing for ascent ahead of the shortwave. At this time,
precipitation appears more likely to remain scattered in coverage,
with the better potential favoring central and eastern Nebraska.
However, uncertainty remains regarding how far west precipitation
may develop, and trends will continue to be monitored over the next
several forecast cycles. Highs Friday should remain in the lower to
middle 60s, with overnight lows generally in the upper 30s to middle
40s.

Saturday into Sunday, the western longwave trough will gradually
begin progressing eastward, particularly by late weekend, resulting
in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft across the central Plains.
With increased moisture remaining across the region, subtle
disturbances embedded within the southwesterly flow may provide
additional opportunities for precipitation through the weekend.
However, confidence in the timing, coverage, and location of
precipitation remains low given continued differences among model
guidance.

By early next week, attention turns toward the potential for a more
organized storm system as the western trough begins ejecting
eastward into the central United States. Both the ECMWF/EPS and
GFS/GEFS suites generally support the development of a closed upper-
level low, though considerable differences remain regarding its
eventual track, timing, and intensity. The ECMWF/EPS suite currently
favors a more northerly track, which could bring the stronger
forcing for ascent farther north across the central and northern
Plains. In contrast, the GFS/GEFS suite favors a more southerly
evolution, potentially shifting the axis of more widespread
precipitation farther south and east. Given the relatively amplified
and blocky upper-level pattern, uncertainty remains high regarding
how quickly the system will progress eastward and where the greatest
precipitation potential will ultimately develop. Nevertheless,
confidence is gradually increasing in a more active pattern by early
next week, with the potential for more widespread precipitation as
the upper-level system approaches. Temperatures should remain
generally in the lower to middle 60s through much of the weekend,
with a cooling trend possible early next week as the storm system
moves into the region. Highs may fall into the 40s and 50s, though
the magnitude and timing of the cooling will depend on the eventual
track and evolution of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Low stratus and fog will continue to hamper aviation operations
early Tuesday morning for western and north central Nebraska.

Beneath the second of two upper level disturbances, now
departing to the east, expansive stratus and fog was noted
across the region. Visibilities were impacted more significantly
across southwest Nebraska with less than one mile being reported
in spots. This may creep east further towards KLBF but
visibility impacts of that magnitude are not expected. That
said, low CIGs promoting widespread IFR and LIFR conditions
should continue for the first few hours of the forecast period.
Some improvement is possible at KLBF this afternoon and more
likely at KVTN before conditions degrade again this evening into
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NEZ056>058-
069.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Labenz
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion