234
FXUS63 KLBF 292016
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
316 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms tonight into
Saturday morning with a low confidence in severe storms.
- Moderate to high confidence in severe thunderstorms late Saturday
afternoon through the evening with large hail and damaging winds
being the main threats, with tornadoes being a secondary threat.
- Low confidence in continued near-daily afternoon/evening
thunderstorms through mid-week.
- High confidence in mild temperatures through the end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Active weather will continue through tonight as a trough tracks
through the region. Thunderstorms are expected to initialize to the
southwest off the Front Ranges of Colorado by late afternoon and
push northeast though the evening hours. Currently not expecting
showers/thunderstorms to arrive in southwest Nebraska until after
8pm, impacting portions of the region through the remainder of the
evening. While the latest SPC outlook still barely clips southwest
Nebraska in a Marginal severe risk, the latest hi-res models do show
some isolated thunderstorms into portions of the Sandhills and north
central Nebraska. Instability remains modest through Midnight (up to
1500 J/kg of CAPE), before decreasing after Midnight helping to keep
the overall severe threat minimal, but not entirely out of the
question. Even if not quite severe, some of the stronger storms will
be capable of producing stronger winds or small hail as well as
lightning. After midnight, thunderstorms will weaken and the severe
threat will diminish.
Increased low level moisture north central Nebraska combined with
light winds will allow for fog development once again
tonight/Saturday morning. At this time, anticipating fog to remain
patchy with visibilities remaining above 5 miles. However, the
latest probabilities suggest seeing less than miles is near 30
percent at times. Therefore, would not be surprised to see some
lower visibilities especially in low lying areas and in river
valleys. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions if traveling
Friday morning. Any fog that does develop will be slow to lift
Saturday morning as increased moisture remains across the region.
Warm air advection will continue through tonight keeping 850 mb
temperatures in the 14 to 20 C range through Saturday morning.
Therefore, this warmer air in combination with mostly cloudy skies
overnight, will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s
across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
The greatest potential for severe storms in the next week will occur
on Saturday afternoon and evening as a mid level trough pushes
across Nebraska. In addition to this, a dry line will be present
across the region which will help to create a steep gradient of
dewpoints and moisture across the front. With increased moisture
across portions of our forecast area combined with modest
instability (CAPE values potentially above 3000 J/kg, lapse rates
near 7 to 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear up to 50 knots), a favorable
environment will exist for severe thunderstorm development by
Saturday afternoon and into the evening. While the environment
remains favorable, some lingering fog and stratus through much of
the morning as well as where the dry line sets up will determine
greatly if storms develop as well as the location. If storms
develop, the potential for them to become severe is high with the
main threats being large hail (at least 2 inches in diameter) and
strong winds (at least 65 mph) with even tornadoes being possible.
There is still significant inconsistency in the models due to the
conditional nature of this event with several still showing little
in the way of storm development at all. Despite this, will continue
to emphasize the severe potential as SPC guidance supports a similar
thinking highlighting much of north central Nebraska in a slight
risk Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will continue
to be monitored closely over the next forecast cycle with additional
adjustments to the forecast likely.
Another round of convection is possible on Sunday as the severe
threat shifts slightly to the east. A shortwave will push through
northern and eastern Nebraska on Sunday afternoon combining with a
dryline across central Nebraska providing a favorable environment
for convective initiation. Development will be primarily focused
along and to the east of this dryline (mainly east of US-83) where
the best moisture will be present. Not expecting widespread severe
as in the previous day, but some isolated strong to briefly severe
storms will be possible before pushing to the east out of our area.
Beyond Sunday, the active weather pattern will continue as
shortwaves continue to track through Nebraska creating near-daily
rain and thunderstorm chances through mid-week. At this time the
severe risk remains uncertain, but with mild temperatures in the 80s
though much of the week and some instability across the region, a
stronger to briefly severe storm will be entirely possible
especially in the afternoon and evening. Stay tuned as we will
continue to monitor the environment headed into next week for the
severe potential.
Temperatures through the extended period remain warm and mild as
continued WAA pushes into the central Plains. Highs will remain in
the 80s with lows in the low to mid 50s through next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Showers and thunderstorms will develop and move into the region late
this afternoon and into the evening. Confidence on how far east and
north showers will move is still low. Any showers do have the
potential for lightning and erratic winds resulting in some aviation
concerns through the evening hours. Showers come to an end early
Saturday morning, however, lingering moisture may create areas of
fog development, especially across northern Nebraska. Fog will
slowly dissipate by mid to late Saturday morning giving way to
cloudy skies with ceilings below 2000 feet.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion