901
FXUS63 KLBF 111118
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue today and tomorrow, before a
cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon brings a return of near
average highs for Tuesday.

- Moderate to high confidence in increased rainfall potential by the
middle of next week.

- Moderate confidence in below normal temperatures by the end of
the week with a frost/freeze potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026


Currently, temperatures range from the upper 50s near the Pine Ridge
to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere, with breezy south winds
continuing across much of the area. A cold front is moving
southwards across western South Dakota, with gusty northerly winds
across North Dakota and northern South Dakota in its wake.

For today, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move
southeast this morning, reaching northwest Nebraska by sunrise. This
boundary will then slowly push southeast across the area this
afternoon, gradually slowing and stalling near an Imperial to
O`Neill line. Behind the front, weak cold advection is expected to
keep highs in the 70s across northwest Nebraska and the western
Sandhills. Along and ahead of the front, another day in the middle
to upper 80s can be expected with H85 temperatures remaining above
the 90th percentile climo. Fire concerns look to be lesser today
versus yesterday, with minimum humidity this afternoon in the 25-45%
range and weaker wind gusts this afternoon.

By this evening, deepening surface low pressure across northeast
Colorado will begin to eject east roughly along the Kansas/Nebraska
border. This will finally drag the cold front through the area
tomorrow morning and begin to push the very warm airmass we`ve been
influenced by the past few days. That said, the stronger cold
advection bringing cooler air aloft looks to be delayed until
tomorrow night, and one more day above average in the middle 70s to
80s across central and southwest Nebraska. This secondary frontal
passage tomorrow night looks to promote stronger cold advection and
mechanical mixing, and a period of gusty northeast winds are
expected prior to sunrise Tuesday morning. Lows near the Pine Ridge
are expected to fall into the upper 30s, with lows in the 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The beginning of some much cooler temperatures and increased
potential for precipitation will arrive on Tuesday. While much of
Tuesday will remain dry, a developing low pressure system over
Colorado will bring the potential of significant rainfall Tuesday
night through Thursday. Latest model runs appear to have slowed this
system down a little with the best potential for rainfall appearing
to now Wednesday night as the low deepens and pushes off the Front
Ranges into Nebraska. This precipitation potential will be enhanced
as a secondary wave pushing north out of Texas interacts with the
deepening system over the Nebraska/Kansas border. Precipitation will
continue into Thursday before moving off to the east by Thursday
evening. At this time, QPF amounts are still uncertain, but there is
still the potential for some embedded thunderstorms Wednesday
evening which may produce some heavier rainfall. At this time, not
expecting any severe thunderstorms or flooding concerns, but will
continue to monitor over the next few days.

Beyond Thursday night, strong upper level ridging will return to the
western US allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of
Canada bringing a return to dry conditions through the weekend. With
this high, cold air advection will push in a much colder airmass
into the northern and central Great Plains. With 850 mb temperatures
in the -5 to 1 C range on Friday, surface highs will struggle to
rise out of the 50s. Highs will gradually moderate through next
weekend, rising back into the 70s by next Sunday. For low
temperatures, this CAA will drop overnight temperatures into the mid
to upper 30s across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska on Friday
morning. Widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s are
expected for Saturday morning. Given this colder airmass, frost
potential is possible by the end of the week. At this time,
headlines are not in place, but if this colder temperature trend
remains consistent and confidence increases, they may be necessary.
Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date
information regarding frost/freeze potential.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the region as high pressure
remains in place. Outside of some high clouds, skies will remain
mostly clear with ceilings well above 10 kft. Winds will shift to
the northeast by this evening, however, winds will remain under 10
knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion