298
FXUS63 KLBF 102055
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
355 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is expected tonight, especially across north
  central Nebraska. At this time, accumulations up to an inch
  are expected, with locally 2 inches possible. A dusting of
  snow possible further south to along the I80 corridor.

- A Fire Weather Watch is inn effect on Thursday due to a
  combination of much above normal temperatures, very strong
  west winds and very low relative humidity.

- Much colder Sunday with highs only in the upper 20s to mid
  30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Tonight, a reinforcing cold front will drop quickly south. Mid level
frontogenesis in the H7-H5 layer will drop southeast, and provide a
period of lift for 3-5 hours. Soundings indicate once the low levels
saturate sufficiently, any light rain initially will quickly
transition to light snow. The latest forecast has increased POPs to
categorical (80-90 percent) north of Highway 2, and a slight
increase in QPFS. The HRRR, RAP, and 3km NAM indicate QPFs to around
0.15 inch across nctrl Nebraska with banded precip shown. Snowfall
amounts from a half inch to an inch are forecast, with locally up to
2 inches possible north of Highway 2, with a dusting possible
further south along the I80 corridor. Impacts at this time appear
low, with the snow mostly ended across the area by 5 AM CDT.

Wednesday, cooler from the upper 40s to lower 50s, on the backside
of the upper trough with strong surface high pressure building in. A
northwest wind 15 to 30 mph. A very dry airmass with dewpoints
falling to around 10 above in the afternoon. Despite the cooler
temperatures, low humidity and gusty winds will bring elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions.

Wednesday night, winds will become southwest with a strong inversion
in place, with lows from the low to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Thursday, a strong warmup into the 70s. A clipper system crossing
North Dakota will push a cold front south through much of South
Dakota. To the south, across western and north central Nebraska,
strong westerly winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph or higher
are possible across the western Sandhills (mainly west of Kilgore
through Mullen and Grant). Windy with gusts 30 to 45 mph possible
further east across the remainder of the area. Used a blend of the
NBM 90th percentile for winds and wind gusts. The potential for
high winds exists and a High Wind Watch may be need across the
western Sandhills.

Highs Thursday much above normal from 70 to 75. Critical fire
conditions appear likely, given the very strong westerly winds and
afternoon humidity as low as 15 percent. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for all of western and North central Nebraska
from noon to 10 PM CDT. A strong cold front will move into north
central Nebraska Thursday evening, turning winds from the west to
the northwest. This wind shift will be another concern for any
existing fires. Further details can be found in the Fire Weather
Section below.

A cold front will push through the remainder of the area Thursday
night, with highs Friday expected to contrast from the upper 40s far
northeast to the lower 70s far southwest. Another warmup Saturday
ahead of another cold front, with highs from the mid 50s to upper
70s. Confidence in highs Friday and Saturday is below normal,
although fire weather concerns will continue, especially across the
southwest.

Sunday will be much colder in the upper 20s to upper 30s, as the
upper trough amplifies across the Great Lakes and Midwest. Highs
warm to the upper 30s to near 50 Monday, and 60s to low 60s west
Tuesday.

Precipitation chances mainly centered on Saturday night through
Sunday morning, mainly from light snow. While a shortwave trough is
shown to quickly cross the region, the latest models generate light
QPFS, but do not suggest this will be a significant system, other
than bringing the potential for some light snow and much colder
air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

MVFR and IFR ceilings will remain across the western Sandhills
into this afternoon, and should dissipate by late afternoon. The
main aviation concern will be the threat for light snow and
MVFR ceilings and vsbys across north central Nebraska, including
KVTN. At KVTN, MVFR ceilings and vsbys from 03Z until 10Z.
Ceilings as low as OVC015 and vsbys as low as 2SM. KLBF could be
affected briefly by light snow between 06Z-10Z with ceilings as
low as OVC030. VFR conditions after 13Z, with winds near
33013G25kt by 17Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...Critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday in the
south, with dangerous fire weather conditions on Thursday...

Critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday across the
south as gusty northwest winds from 15 to 30 mph combine with
low dewpoints near 10 above in the afternoon. Despite cooler
highs from upper 40s to lower 50s, afternoon humidity could
reach 15 to 20 percent across much of the fire districts.

Much above normal temperatures return to the area by Thursday, with
critical fire weather conditions likely. Highs from 70 to
around 75 will combine with dry air to push relative humidity
values into the teens Thursday afternoon. Most concerning,
strong west winds will develop across western Nebraska into the
Sandhills as well, with strong westerly winds of 30 to 40 mph
with gusts to 60 mph or higher are possible across the western
Sandhills (mainly west of Kilgore through Mullen and Grant).
Windy with gusts 30 to 45 mph possible further east across the
remainder of the area. This points towards a very concerning
setup for large and rapid fire spread. Therefore a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for all of western and North central
Nebraska from noon to 10 PM CDT. A strong cold front will move
into north central Nebraska Thursday evening, turning winds from
the west to the northwest. This wind shift will be another
concern for any existing fires.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion