909
FXUS63 KLBF 090748
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
248 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light scattered precipitation will be possible today.

- A significant warm up is expected Saturday. Increasing chances
  for at least some precipitation is expected Friday night into
  Saturday.

- Sunday and Monday highs will reach the 80s with min RH in the
  teens, could see elevated fire weather concerns

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The center of high pressure will track southeastward through the
Dakotas, and be located across southeast South Dakota and northeast
Nebraska by Friday morning. Southeast winds today will become
northeast tonight as the surface high builds in. Have lowered high
temperatures a couple of degrees today...as weak CAA is noted to the
north of a warm front located across northern Kansas. Any fire
weather concerns will be mostly kept at bay today with an increase
in humidity, however elevated conditions will likely develop across
portions of the western Sandhills and the Panhandle where humidity
will drop to around 25% by this afternoon.

Cooler conditions will be in store for the area Friday. High
pressure settles through the Mississippi River Valley, with cool
easterly low-level flow to persist across our area. A significant
warm-up is expected Saturday as southerly low-level flow and strong
WAA develops. Highs well into the 70s are expected at most
locations. A surge of higher dew points (into the upper 40s and 50s)
should limit the overall fire weather concerns.

As far as precipitation chances, there is some decent mid-level FGEN
that develops through this morning and lingers through the day
today. Some scattered light rain or a light rain snow mix will be
possible early this morning, with a few showers possibly continuing
through the day. Any amounts look very light.

A somewhat better chance for precipitation occurs Friday night into
Saturday. Southwest flow aloft develops as a surge of Gulf air moves
northward into the area. Overall confidence is low, as forcing will
be weak and hard to find a defined focus for development. Still,
there will be increasing instability, and scattered convection is
possible. One scenario would be for development on the western edge
of the moister air across the Panhandle and northeast Colorado. This
development would then increase in coverage as it moves into a more
favorable environment across central/north central Nebraska. Will
continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The upper level ridge axis continues to move eastward out
of the High Plains with southwesterly flow continuing through
Monday. A weak sw disturbance will move through Saturday night into
Sunday and increase the potential for showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm in the overnight hours. WAA on Sunday, 850 temps in
around 18 to 20 degrees will see sfc temps reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s which is around 10 to 20 degrees above normal temperatures
for this time of year, which are typically near the low 60s.
Temperatures will still remain above normal on Monday, however the
warmest temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s will generally
remain along and east of HWY 83.

As far as fire weather concerns in the long term, the greatest
concern will be on Sunday afternoon, when RH values will drop into
the teens and elevated winds around 15 to 20 mph will be possible,
with gusts up to 30 mph. Will have to continue to monitor as the
weekend approaches as there will be several chances for
precipitation before Sunday, thus depending on how much qpf is seen,
more "wetting" rainfall will keep fire weather conditions lower.
There could also be some limited fire wx concerns on Monday
afternoon, however winds at this time look to be light around 5 to
10 mph.

Beyond Monday, continuing to track a system making its way onshore
into the western CONUS early next week as an upper level closed low.
The system is expected to move eastward and into the High Plains by
Tuesday, however at this time there are discrepancies with the
track and the intensity of the trof as it moves eastward. The EC
tracks the closed low into the High Plains region and is also a
little slower with its eastward progression. The GFS deepens
the low more than the EC and also tracks the closed low further
north with a quicker eastward progression. Will need to continue
to monitor over the next few days to see if models come into
better consensus.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. There will
be some isolated showers throughout the day, but nothing
widespread is expected. Winds will be light and variable early
this morning. Winds become easterly through the day, around 5 to
10 kts. Across the northern Sandhills winds will be slightly
stronger this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion