517
FXUS63 KLBF 101848
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
Issued by National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1248 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue Today and Wednesday across
  western and north central Nebraska

- Breezy winds Today and Wednesday, with some elevated fire
  weather concerns across western Nebraska.

- Dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday, with low
  chances for rain showers south and east Saturday night into
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Early this afternoon, persistent high clouds were streaming off the
Front Range. A split flow pattern was set up over the Western CONUS
with ample dry air across the central Plains as high pressure aloft
stalls over the Desert Southwest. Midday temperature readings ranged
from the upper 50s to lower 60s with southwesterly winds gusting
around 20 mph.

Tonight...flow aloft will become more amplified as deep troughing
approaches the West Coast. Shortwave ridging will pinch off along the
Continental Divide as a mid-level speed max translates south and east
behind a passing shortwave disturbance. This will drag a frontal
boundary south through western Nebraska and serve largely as the lone
change to sensible weather in the short term. Scant moisture in the
low and mid levels will preclude precipitation chances with greater
potential remaining to the north and east. Winds will increase
quickly behind the front they veer to the northwest. Though winds
will not be overly significant, stronger gusts should largely favor
elevated locations across the Sandhills with 20 mph magnitudes possible.
Lows tonight should remain on the mild side with readings in the upper
30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...early morning strong winds off the
surface should translate down as the boundary layer begins to
mix out. Gusts should climb to around 25 to perhaps 30 mph in a
select few locations. Even with a northwesterly flow regime,
temperatures will likely remain on the mild side. Afternoon highs
should again climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s, or roughly 4-8F
above normal for middle November. Though humidity appears more
marginal given an invading Pacific airmass, stronger winds should yet
again promote some elevated fire concerns, particularly for southwest
Nebraska up through the Panhandle. At this time, critical conditions
are not expected. High pressure will settle south and east across the
far Northern Plains and should nose into eastern Nebraska towards
daybreak on Thursday. This will support some cooler temperatures
though still above normal for the time of year with values only in
the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Mid-range ensembles are in good agreement at status quo regarding
pattern evolution through the remainder of the week. Deep longwave
trough will sit between Hudson Bay and New England with amplified
flow persisting across the Central Plains in much of the Midwest.
Eventual ridge breakdown should occur over the weekend as a couple
more pronounced systems approach the western CONUS. These features
should phase together as they progress east across the Great Basin
and towards the High Plains. Southerly flow including a greater fetch
of moisture from the Gulf should be established by Saturday and
will promote moderating temperatures towards the end of the forecast
period. Both EPS and GEFS solutions depict modest lee cyclogenesis
developing by early Sunday to our southwest and subtle lift may be
enough to produce at least some light precipitation for mainly
central and eastern Nebraska. Temperatures appear quite mild and
should support all rain with any precipitation that does occur though
daytime temperatures may falter some with the increased cloudiness
and rain. Confidence in precise details, particularly late weekend
into early next week, varies considerably between ensemble solutions.
NBM inner-quartile spread in daytime maximum temperatures doubles
from Friday to Sunday (9F to 19F) at North Platte. Though ensembles
generally agree on timing and progression of upper-level wave pattern,
some subtle timing and placement discrepancies remain. Overall
though, following a fairly light QPF event late weekend into early
the following week, a brief lull aligning with another shortwave
ridging setup briefly return before even greater precipitation
potential returns. Ensembles show greater certainty in occurrence as
well as greater potential magnitude of moisture: 30-40%+ of
individual members painting 0.1" or greater total liquid equivalent
from both the EPS and GEFS solutions. Similarly, temperatures appear
likely to remain mild enough to preclude much if any wintry
precipitation types but this will need monitored. Recurring troughing
over the western CONUS should support an active pattern through mid
and late month, an idea highlighted by the Climate Prediction
Center`s latest outlooks. Given the time of year, should any influx
of more Arctic air be realized, precipitation may support greater
potential for wintry weather. This will be especially true as
guidance hints at a notable system crossing the region in the days
leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with
only passing mid and high level clouds expected.

A frontal boundary will sag through western Nebraska late
this afternoon through the evening with winds veering to
northwesterly in its wake. Strong LLWS should develop at
area terminals as winds increase off the surface, persisting
through daybreak on Wednesday. Winds will then translate to
the surface with northwesterly gusts around 25 knots for the
late morning through the end of the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NJ
LONG TERM...NJ
AVIATION...NJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion