588
FXUS63 KLBF 020704
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
204 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated threat of showers and thunderstorms overnight,
  generally expect the greatest threat to be along and east of
  HWY 83.

- A low end chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  evening into Thursday morning across the northwest Sandhills.

- The warmer, drier pattern remains through the late weekend,
  with highs around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Some uncertainty builds into the forecast late weekend into
  early next week. An approaching upper level system may bring
  chances for precipitation and slightly above seasonal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight into early this
morning. The LLJ will strengthen and interact with the frontal
boundary and potentially lingering boundaries from stroms this
evening, across portions of the Sandhills into north central
Nebraska. The greatest threat for thunderstorms development will
generally be along and east of HWY 83. Convection is expected
to remain elevated, thus large hail and damaging winds will be
the main concern. There will be a secondary threat of heavy
rainfall and will need to continue to monitor IF and where
storms develop overnight into this morning. The frontal bounary
has remained almost stationary through the evening into tonight
and is not expected to progress, thus if storms should develop
this overnight/early morning, they may potentially move over the
same locations as storms earlier this evening that have already
seen heavy rainfall. However that being said confidence is low
in just how much, if any convection, will develop.

As for Wednesday, weak upper level ridging will continue across the
central CONUS with temperatures warming into the 90s. There is the
potential to see some isolated thunderstorms develop off the high
terrain and move into western Nebraska Wednesday evening. There is
also the potential for isolated convection to develop overnight
Wednesday into Thursday early morning as the LLJ develops overnight.
Thursday afternoon should be mostly dry with highs reaching the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Upper level ridging remains across the region Thursday night and
throughout the holiday weekend. This will contribute to continued
above average temperatures and limited precipitation potential.
Ensemble guidance continues to build confidence in the dry start to
the weekend, with chances for precipitation exceeding one tenth of
an inch remaining less than 10 percent through at least Sunday
evening. The NBM continues to suggest some lower end PoPs, generally
remaining less than 20 percent, as some upper level shortwaves track
through the upper level flow. This also shows well in ensemble
guidance, particularly in the European ensembles, which continue to
suggest a 20 to 30 percent chance of exceeding one hundredth of an
inch of precipitation. In general, would expect little to no
precipitation over the early weekend, and if anything were to fall,
expecting it to be very light. As for temperatures, have seen a
slight upward trend, especially for Friday and Saturday, as most of
the region is now expected to see highs in the 90s. This would push
most of the region at or above the 90th percentile compared to local
climatology. In other words, unusually hot for early September,
when our typical highs would be around 84 degrees. In fact, Friday
and Saturday could see highs 10 to 15 degrees above our usual highs.
Not too confident that we will be pushing towards record highs at
this time, as records remain between 101-106. However, those with
outdoor plans this holiday weekend will still want to have plans to
beat the heat.

Latest forecast guidance begins to show a shift in the pattern
emerging by the late weekend. Previous forecast runs were beginning
to build some uncertainty in the forecast for early week, and latest
guidance may begin to introduce this uncertainty as early as Sunday
afternoon. While most solutions remained bullish on upper level
ridging remaining across the region, there was some suggestion of a
more progressive solution emerging, bringing a trough into the
region a bit more quickly than expected. This latest run continues
to build some steam for the more progressive pattern, potentially
bringing an upper level trough across the Intermountain West as early
as Sunday. If this were to occur, we may expect some stronger upper
level flow to track across western portions of the region on Sunday
afternoon. This would help lift a surface system across the west,
potentially bringing precipitation chances as early as Sunday
afternoon and evening. This has also showed a bit more strongly in
ensemble guidance, which now begins to suggest higher chances for at
least one tenth of an inch of precipitation Sunday evening. Whereas
most of the weekend ensemble guidance suggests less than a 10
percent chance, Sunday evening, we now see a 20 to 40 percent chance
across most of the region, with the European solutions even
suggesting chances as high as 50 percent in some locations.

As guidance now begins to favor this more progressive solution,
expecting that we may see daily precipitation chances early next
week, especially as the trough is expected to lift northeast across
the Central and Northern Plains. This may also favor some slightly
cooler temperatures, with highs still remaining slightly above
seasonal average. This would place highs generally in the mid 80s to
lower 90s, but there still remains some uncertainty on how strong
the remaining ridging will be, especially with a trough expected to
move across the region. Will continue to monitor forecast trends for
this period, especially as guidance comes into better consensus on
the upper level pattern evolution.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

There is the potential of an isolated thunderstorms overnight
into early morning, mainly east of HWY 83. There is also the
potential for patchy fog to develop early this morning across
portions of north central Nebraska including KVTN terminal,
briefly leading to MVFR conditions. After the morning hours, VFR
conditions should prevail for most of the forecast period. There
is an isolated chance of thunderstorms in the evening across
western Nebraska, but at this time, looks to remain west or KVTN
and KLBF terminals. Winds will be mostly light and variable
this morning, then becoming more southerly this afternoon and
evening around 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion