027
FXUS63 KLBF 032328
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms 4th of July, some of which
  may be strong to severe

- Additional thunderstorm chances are expected throughout the
  weekend into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The main concern in the short term will be the chance
for showers and thunderstorms throughout 4th of July. A SFC trof
will begin to move eastward early Friday and expect storms to
initially develop across western Nebraska by early Friday
afternoon. Could potentially see some isolated shower to
thunderstorm activity across the Panhandle as early as 16z but
think the best threat for convective initiation will be after
18z. The mode at the early start of the convection will
generally be isolated single cell to potentially supercellular
in the early afternoon.

There is still some uncertainty on how numerous the development
of storms will be, however confidence continues to increase in
storm development with little to no cap in place. Confidence is
also increasing that a line or broken line of storms is the most
likely scenario, as several CAMs continue to align with a
linear progression scenario, thus tend to trend towards the main
hazard being gusty damaging winds as the strong to severe
threat. CAPE values in the 0-3 km are around 1500 J/kg by 18z
across most of western and north central Nebraska, however 0-3
shear is weaker around 20 to 25 kts in the afternoon and early
evening lapse rates are not too impressive either around 5.5 to
6.5 C/km, thus feel that large hail will be a secondary hazard
with damaging winds the main hazard.

There will also be a secondary threat for heavy rain as well.
Bufkit soundings show long skinny cape and pwats around 1.25 to
1.75 inches, leading to higher confidence in locally heavy
rainfall. Expect most of the convection to spread east after
01z, however there is some concern for additional convection
after 01z across western Nebraska. At this time confidence is
low as only a few CAMs are showing that convection and not sure
the environment will remain favorable after daytime heating is
lost for any late evening/overnight storms but will have to
monitor how storms developing during the day to see if the
environment will remain unstable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Upper level Quasi-zonal flow is expected into early next
week before a ridge begins to develop across the western CONUS by
early next week. Temperatures will remain generally near to slightly
above average with highs in the 80s. A weak SW trof moves through
Saturday with chances for showers Saturday evening into the
overnight. After Saturday there will be nearly daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Skies will be mostly clear at both terminals through mid morning
Friday. Mid clouds will increase by late morning with ceilings
ranging from 7000 to 10000 FT AGL. There will be an increased
threat for thunderstorms during the afternoon hours at both
terminals and will handle the threat with a prob30 group from
18z to 24z Friday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion