041
FXUS63 KLBF 100656
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
156 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire conditions across the northwest Sandhills this
afternoon. Near-critical to potentially critical fire conditions
Friday afternoon near and west of Highway 83.
- A threat for isolated strong to severe storms in the east late
Friday afternoon and evening.
- Low to moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms
bringing widespread rainfall across portions of north central
Nebraska this weekend.
- Cooler temperatures expected early next week with highs in the
mid to upper 70s across western and north central Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
This morning through the afternoon, a subtle disturbance in
northwest flow aloft this morning may produce ACCAS clouds, and even
isolated light rain showers. About 500J/kg CAPE indicated above
700mb during the morning. Weak capping will return by afternoon. An
isolated thunderstorm or two may develop mid to late afternoon in
southwest Nebraska, where weak low level convergence exists, as
shown by a few of the CAMs.
Surface low pressure will deepen from eastern Montana into eastern
Wyoming today. This will bring a tightening surface pressure
gradient, with a gusty south to southwest wind of 15 to 30 mph with
some gusts to 35 mph across the Sandhills. This will also bring a
warmup into the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 across the western
and northwest Sandhills. This will also bring elevated fire weather
conditions across the northwest Sandhills. Details found in the Fire
Weather Section below.
Tonight, south to southwest winds will continue at 15 to 25 mph,
with gusts to 35 mph across the north central. This will keep low
mild in the lower to mid 60s.
Friday, surface low pressure will deepen and move east across South
Dakota. A trailing surface trough across western Nebraska will move
east, with westerly winds behind the trough and southwest winds
ahead of it. Winds will again range from 15 to 30 mph with gusts to
35 mph. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s throughout the
area. Near-critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
are possible Friday afternoon mainly near and east of Highway 83.
Details found in the Fire Weather Section below. A conditional threat
for late afternoon strong to severe thunderstorms also exists.
Moderate instability with SBCAPEs from 2000-3000J/kg will exist
with a weak cap remaining in place through the afternoon. This
should inhibit thunderstorm development in the afternoon. However,
if the cap were to break, an isolated storm or two could quickly
become severe.
Friday evening and overnight, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop by early evening near and east
of the surface trough near Eustis through Broken Bow and O`Neill.
Deep layer shear will be adequate at 30-35kts. Any storms could be
strong to severe, with an isolated threat for large hail and
damaging winds. storms will push southeast of the area by mid
evening. A cold front will drop through overnight, with a low chance
for thunderstorms in the southeast overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
A cold front passing through late Friday night to possibly early
Saturday morning will bring a nice reprieve from the hot weather.
Daytime highs Saturday are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s
across western and north central Nebraska. a deep upper level low
will make landfall onto the Pacific Northwest sometime early Sunday
morning. This will dig into what was generally zonal upper flow and
creating a ridging pattern ahead, over the Northern Plains. The
riding will allow high pressure to settle into Nebraska and promote
warmer temperatures with southwest flow. Sunday highs are expected
to be in the mid to uppers 80s across southwest Nebraska and in the
mid to upper 70s across North Central. The southwest flow aloft
will also bring an influx of moisture from the eastern Pacific.
PWATs are expected to climb to over 1.00" and central to
eastern Nebraska could see that rise to 1.5". This would put the
area in well over the 95th percentile climatologically for the
year. As such, the prospect of widespread wetting rainfall
remains possible. NBM remains fairly aggressive with 40 to 50%
probabilities of areas north of I80 and along/west of Highway 83
seeing >0.25" rainfall Sunday through Monday morning. LREF is a
bit more bullish with the same area seeing 20 to 40%
probabilities. Regardless, with mean MUCAPE being 1,000 to 2,000
J/kg, there remains the possibility for rainfall to come in the
way of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. This
possibility will be something to watch for in the coming days as
the forecast continues to be refined.
As the upper trough from the Pacific Northwest traverses past the
Rockies and reaches the northern Plains around Monday afternoon,
daytime highs next week will feel "fall like". Daytime highs are
expected to be in the mid to upper 70s Monday through Wednesday for
the CWA. To accompany the cooler temperatures will be mostly dry
forecast until mid week where a shortwave could further bring some
precipitation potential.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Skies continue to clear early Thursday morning as clouds depart
to the east. Towards daybreak, low clouds become possible and
could impact both KLBF and KVTN. Have covered with SCT mention
around 3500 ft. HREF probabilities keep lower CIG potential to
the west with decreasing probability through mid/late morning.
Otherwise, expect largely clear skies for the bulk of the
daytime as winds gust out of the south/southwest around 20 to 25
knots. Strong wind shear will develop Thursday evening and have
included a mention of LLWS at both sites in the forecast.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
early evening across the northwest Sandhills (Fire Zone 204).
Afternoon humidity will fall to as low as 15 percent, mainly west of
a Cody through Lewellen line. Southwest winds are expected to be
marginal. HREF probability for winds above 20 mph is only 10
percent or less.
Near-critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions are
possible Friday afternoon and early evening for areas near and west
of Highway 83. West northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30
mph will combine with afternoon humidity as low as 13 to 20 percent.
Fuels have become receptive to large fire growth, and any fires
which start could spread quickly. A cold front will will bring a
wind shift to the north during the evening.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion