621
FXUS63 KLBF 042048
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
348 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north winds this late this afternoon will continue to lead
to a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop this evening, with
rainfall chances expected through Wednesday, falling across western
and southwestern Nebraska.

- Some light snow showers possible late Tuesday night across
Nebraska panhandle, but little to no accumulation is expected.

-Low confidence in showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday
 afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

In the short term, the main concern will be elevated fire weather
concerns, a chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms as well as
a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

Prior to the isolated chances of thunderstorms late this afternoon,
A cold front has moved south through the state, bringing gusty
northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 35 mph. Elevated fire
weather concerns still remain until either the winds start to
settle or humidity climbing above elevated fire weather
thresholds.

As it looks right now, models have been a little disagreeable over
the exact timing but generally agree upon the potential of isolated
showers and thunderstorms tracking over southwest NE, along and
south of I-80. Severe potential remains low at this time as
instability remains on the weaker side with HREF SBCAPE values
ranging from 100 to 200 J/kg. However, a few stronger storms could
produce gusty, erratic winds. Total rainfall amounts will
initially remain light, excluding the  of a couple stronger
cells producing a few hundreths to a tenth of an inch.
Overnight, more widespread rainfall and longer-lasting showers
are expected. Given the longer duration, more beneficial
rainfall amounts will be possible(up to a couple tenths of an
inch) especially across potions of the south-central Panhandle
and southwest NE.

By Tuesday, a mid-level shortwave will make its way south from the
Dakota - Wyoming border and help deepen the surface low. This should
help continue the widespread chances for rain showers lasting though
the day and evening. Temperatures will remain cooler, in the mid 40s
to low 50s (10 to 12 degrees below normal) across much of the
region. Overnight lows will drop into the low 30s which could
introduce some light snow showers developing across western
Nebraska. Limited accumulations are expected as warm soil
temperatures will mostly melt any snow that settles, but a dusting
to a few tenths of snow accumulations is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

By Wednesday morning, temperatures rise back above freezing, and any
snow showers will quickly change back into rain. Lingering showers
are expected to clear by Wednesday evening but will still keep highs
cooler in the low to mid 50s. High pressure is expected to build
back into the region late Wednesday night, allowing skies to clear
out. The result of these clearing skies with cold air advecting into
the region will allow lows to drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s
across southwest Nebraska and the western Panhandle Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning. Freeze headlines may be warranted as
confidence is increasing but has been held off for now.

Strong upper-level ridging from western CONUS will continue to keep
high pressure in the region Thursday. This will help bring highs
back up to the low 70s, but will also be a factor into elevated fire
conditions as humidity drops to the upper teens across most of the
Sandhills. Additionally, a shortwave develops on the leeward
side of the ridge Thursday afternoon, which could lead to some
active weather in way of showers and an isolated thunderstorm or
two.

Warm temperatures will remain heading into the weekend with highs in
the low to mid 70s each day through Sunday. Friday could bring some
elevated fire weather concerns as humidity will be in the low to mid
20s across most of the region. The next opportunity for widespread
thunderstorms will arrive over the weekend on Saturday. An upper
level trough starts to track in behind the departing ridge, bringing
showers and thunderstorm chances. The potential for severe storms
with this this system remains uncertain at this time but will
continue to be monitored over the upcoming days for any
development.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Winds will remain breezy this afternoon out of the north around
15 to 25 kts sustained and gusts up to 35 kts. By evening winds
will begin to diminish to around 10 kts out of the north. There
will be a chance for light showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. The greater potential
will be across western and southwest Nebraska including KLBF
terminal. Lower cigs will be expected overnight into Tuesday
morning but at this time VFR conditions are still expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion