296
FXUS63 KLBF 232021
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near critical and critical fire weather conditions appear likely
Wednesday afternoon across the area.
- High temperatures Wednesday are likely to eclipse records.
- A cold front Wednesday night will bring cooler readings to the area
Thursday, however, gusty winds may lead to elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions across the southern half of
the forecast area. Little to no precipitation is expected with
the front.
- Cooler readings expected Friday with a warmup Saturday into
Monday. Warmer temperatures Saturday through Monday along with
low relative humidity, will lead to increased fire weather
concerns.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
H5 analysis from this morning had broad, mainly low amplitude flow
across the CONUS. An elongated area of high pressure was present
from Baja California east into central Texas. A more active pattern
was present across Canada into the eastern Great Lakes and New
England. Closed low pressure was located in eastern portions of the
Gulf of Alaska. East-southeast of this feature, short waves were
located over central Saskatchewan and east to Lake Huron. Abundant
mid and high level cloudiness continued to stream across the central
Rockies, east onto the central plains. Gusty southerly winds have
developed this afternoon across the area and were gusting as high as
43 MPH at Valentine at 3 PM CDT. Skies were mostly cloudy and
temperatures ranged from 51 degrees at Broken Bow, North Platte and
O`Neil, to 60 degrees at Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
High pressure aloft, over northwestern Mexico, will begin to
strengthen tonight, building a ridge north into northern Nevada,
northern Utah and southern Idaho. MId and upper level
cloudiness will lift east of the area later this evening with
clearing skies expected overnight. Overnight lows will bottom
out in the lower 30s. The ridge will amplify further Tuesday
transitioning east Tuesday night. Beginning Tuesday, warmer air
will push into the region with H85 temps reaching around 20C in
SW Nebraska by 21z. The latest NBM guidance has highs ranging
from the upper 60s in the northeast, to the lower 80s in far SW
Nebraska. This is on the low end of the NBM ensemble (~25th
%ile) guidance, however the NBM forecast is in decent agreement
with the latest MET and MAV guidance. With highs reaching well
into the 70s and lower 80s for most areas and little to no
moisture advection into the area, afternoon min RH will reach 15
to 25 percent across the area. Winds however are expected to be
fairly light as a weak surface trough extends from southwestern
into northern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night
will be mild with readings in the lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Ridging off to the west of the area, will begin to break down
Wednesday. As this occurs, very warm air will push into the
forecast area. This will lead to record warmth across western
and north central Nebraska. The forecast initialized with NBM
highs Wednesday trended higher this morning and is still at the
25th %ile of the NBM ensemble this morning. The spread from the
25th to 75th %ile of the NBM ensemble, continues to close with
this morning`s run and now ranges from 89 to 94 degrees for
North Platte. Decided to trend up temps a degree across the
board which brought temps more in line with the MET and MAV
guidance which has 90 and 92 for LBF for highs Wednesday
respectively. That being said, with warmer temps forecast,
afternoon relative humidity trended downward as well with RH
bottoming out in the 10 to 20 percent range Wednesday afternoon.
As for winds Wednesday afternoon, statistical guidance and the
median NBM winds are fairly light with afternoon gust potential
in the 15 to 20 MPH range. Looking at GFS and NAM bufkit
soundings for Wednesday afternoon, believe gust potential will
go higher than statistical and NBM guidance suggests. In fact,
the latest GFS bufkit soundings indicate mixing up to the
H700-H600 layer with gust potential 25+ MPH Wednesday afternoon.
Given the trend upward in highs for Wednesday, it only seems
reasonable that winds will go higher. With this forecast
package, blended NBM 50th and 75th%ile winds which brought gusts
up to around 25+ MPH. A strong cold front will pass through the
forecast area Wednesday night leading to windy and cooler
conditions on Thursday. Highs Thursday will fall back to the
upper 50s to upper 60s. A second, reinforcing shot of cooler
air, will push into the area Friday with below normal highs in
the lower to middle 50s. Low amplitude ridging will then build
back into the western, then transition east to the central
plains Saturday into Monday. Highs in the 60s Saturday will
reach into the 70s for Sunday and Monday. As for precipitation
in the outer periods, there only a small threat for
precipitation Thursday night in association with mid level
forcing along the secondary cold front. Low level moisture
appears meager at best, and any QPF over a couple of hundredths
of an inch is very unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Gusty southerly winds are expected to persist into the early
evening hours tonight before diminishing to under 10 KTS. Wind
gusts this afternoon will range from 20 to 35 KTS. Skies this
afternoon will be scattered to broken with ceilings around 20000
FT AGL. Look for skies to clear out overnight tonight with a few
to scattered clouds around 25000 FT AGL persisting into Tuesday
morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
The main concern for critical fire weather conditions lies on
Wednesday. High temperatures will reach well into the 80s with some
lower 90s possible in SW Nebraska. Minimum RH will bottom out in the
10 to 20 percent range during the afternoon. Winds are the main
issue as to a go or no go for red flag warning criteria. West of
highway 83 feel fairly confident in eventually needing a red flag
warning as mixed layer winds reach 25 to 40 MPH during the afternoon
(per BUFKIT soundings). The degree of mixing further east where
slightly cooler readings are forecast, is uncertain attm. That being
said, decided to hoist a fire weather watch for all areas, realizing
we will probably need a red flag warning for areas along and west of
highway 83. If the high temperature forecast continues to trend
upward for Wednesday, no doubt, winds will increase as well, leading
to an increased threat for RFW criteria further east.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026
Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)
Wednesday 03/25
* North Platte 90/84 (1907)
Valentine 84/85 (1993)
Broken Bow 88/83 (2004, 1956, 1908)
Imperial 92/85 (1907)
* If records are hit Wednesday, it will be the 8th day so
far this year a daily record high has been tied or broken at North
Platte. This would also be the 15th daily record high set at North Platte
since November 1, 2025!
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through late
Wednesday night for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
CLIMATE...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion