924
FXUS63 KLBF 292001
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
301 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog is possible tonight, generally along and west of a line
from Callaway to Gordon.
- There is a chance for showers Friday night into Saturday
morning with the greatest threat east of a line from Merriman
to Imperial.
- After dry conditions Saturday afternoon into Sunday, a strong storm
system will cross the central plains Sunday night into
Tuesday night bringing precipitation chances to the area.
There is also a threat for strong northerly winds Monday and
Tuesday with gust potential over 50 MPH in the Sandhills.
- Precipitation may linger into Wednesday across eastern areas,
however forecast confidence is low.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
A fairly low amplitude pattern was present across the CONUS
this morning. A shortwave was located over the big bend of
Texas. Closed low pressure was located just off the coast of
Vancouver BC. A shortwave trough was present approximately 300
miles off the coast of northern California. Across the central
CONUS this morning a fairly zonal pattern extended from the
central and northern Rockies, east to New England and the Mid-
Atlantic states. At the surface this afternoon...high pressure
was located from the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota and
far northeastern Nebraska and NW Iowa. A stationary front was
anchored from near Garden City Kansas to Kansas City MO. North
of this boundary, a broad shield of stratus was present over
northern Kansas and far SW Nebraska. Across the forecast area
today, skies were mainly clear with the exception of Chase and
portions of Hayes counties. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged
from 61 degrees at Grant, to 64 degrees at Ainsworth, O`Neill,
and Valentine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Surface high pressure will track east from the eastern Dakotas
and northeastern Nebraska tonight. Behind this exiting feature,
easterly, then southeasterly winds will lift low level moisture
north into the area from Kansas. A warm front will also lift
north into the area, making it as far north as I-80 Friday
morning. With the low level moisture advection overnight,
stratus development appears likely with fog formation possible.
With the latest models indicating stratus extending well west of
the area into the western panhandle, feel the greatest threat
for fog is over western and southwestern Nebraska. The latest
12z HRRR has a decent fog signal west of highway 83 tonight,
however feel the lowest visibilities should be off to the west
of the area tonight. That being said, will hold off on any fog
headlines for tonight, however I did insert a mention of fog for
locations west of a line from Callaway to Gordon. In addition
to fog overnight, forecast soundings indicate a rather deep dry
layer above the boundary layer overnight tonight into Friday
morning. With the expected low level moisture advection
overnight and the degree of the dry layer aloft, went ahead and
inserted a mention of drizzle for tonight through midday Friday.
After midday Friday, mid level moisture will increase from the
south as an upper level disturbance approaches Kansas and
eastern Colorado. With this mid level moisture, the threat for
drizzle should end across the area. With strong low level
moisture advection tonight, lows will be fairly mild with
readings in the mid to upper 40s. With abundant cloud cover
expected on Friday, highs will struggle to get out of the 50s.
The before mentioned shortwave will approach south central, then
southeastern Nebraska Friday night. Precipitation chances will
increase from south central into the eastern half of Nebraska
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As for precipitation
chances, generally held these at low end chance (30-40 percent)
as forecast QPF is confined to far eastern and southeastern
portions of the forecast area. This seems to agree with the
latest NBM probabilities for 24 hr precipitation exceedance. For
the period ending at 7 PM CDT Saturday, there is only a 40%
chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation east of highway 183.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
A transitory, low amplitude ridge overnight Saturday into
Sunday, will bring a brief period of mainly dry conditions to
the area. However, gusty southerly winds east of a deepening
surface trough will continue to push low level moisture into the
forecast area from the south leading to mostly cloudy
conditions across the area on Sunday. This expected cloud cover
will lead to highs only reaching around 60 for most areas. Some
mid 60s may be achieved in the northwest, INVOF the surface
trough where some limited clearing is possible by Sunday
afternoon. The latest GFS and NAM12 solns have PWATS approaching
> than 0.90 inches Sunday afternoon. This is well above the max
percentile for KLBF November 1st per sounding climatology.
Showers and even embedded thunderstorms will increase in
coverage Sunday night into Monday as a lead disturbance lifts
into central and eastern Nebraska. The latest NBM ensemble
forecast has a 90+% chance of reaching at least a quarter inch
of 24 hr QPF ending at 6 PM CT Monday for locations along and
east of highway 83. That being said, 90+ pops are on track for
these areas. Further west to the panhandle, there is a 90+%
chance of reaching 0.10" of QPF during the same time frame.
Initialized likely pops for these areas looks good based on the
deterministic and NBM ensembles. One final note, the latest
ECMWF ensemble has EFI of 0.8 to 0.9 and and SOT of 1-2 over
northeastern portions of the forecast area Monday night into
Tuesday, so will have to continue to monitor the northeast for
heavy rain potential. Finally, gusty northerly winds appear
probable Monday and Tuesday. Both days have a better than 80%
chance of exceeding wind gusts over 30 MPH per the latest NBM
ensemble forecast. Locations over the central and western
Sandhills have a 50- 70% chance of exceeding wind gusts of 50
MPH Monday and Tuesday. Will highlight the wind threat in the
latest HWO. After Tuesday, there is a continued threat for
showers, mainly over eastern portions of the forecast area.
Highs per the WPC initialization are in the lower 50s Wednesday
and Thursday. This is near the 25%ile of the NBM forecast. Based
on the deterministic 12 z GFS and 00z EC solns, the WPC
forecast leans heavily on the EC soln late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026
For the KLBF terminal: Clouds will increase beginning this
evening with MVFR ceilings developing this evening. Overnight
into Friday morning, IFR and LIFR ceilings will develop along
with some patchy fog and drizzle. Visibilities may fall off to 3
to 5 SM with ceilings of 400 to 700 FT AGL. For the KVTN
terminal: Ceilings will fall overnight, becoming MVFR Friday
morning with cloud decks around 1500 FT AGL. Cloud cover is
expected to persist into Friday afternoon with only modest
increases in ceilings.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion