966
FXUS63 KLBF 301123
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average highs in the 70s to 80s persist into late week,
  along with near daily threats for thunderstorms.

- The threat for severe weather appears to remain low the next
  few days, though this threat may increase into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Currently, widespread thunderstorms continue across much of
western Nebraska, in the vicinity of a weak H85 frontal
boundary. These storms have been slow moving, and are efficient
rainfall producers. These storms are within an environment
characterized by meager deep layer shear and ~1000-1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE. Little updraft organization has been noted so far, and
this should continue to be the case. Locally heavy rainfall will
be the biggest threat early this morning, though convection is
over the Sandhills and has largely remained over areas that
missed out on heavy rain earlier this evening. High-res guidance
has a very poor handling on ongoing convection, and this lends
low confidence to how storms evolve. With outflow pushing into
northwest Nebraska, believe at least scattered convection cannot
be ruled out across northern Nebraska through the morning and
into this afternoon as it moves east. The main hazard today will
be locally heavy rainfall, especially if convection impacts
portions of the area that has already had impactful
accumulations. PWAT values range from 1" across the Panhandle to
near 2" in central Nebraska, supporting the concern for locally
heavy rain. This convection will slowly move out of the area by
this evening, with drier conditions expected for tonight.

Much cooler temperatures are expected both today and tomorrow, as
skies remain mostly cloudy amid weak cold advection. Highs remain in
the 70s, bringing much needed relief from recent heat. This will
also keep instability little to none across the area, and limit any
strong storm threat. The exception would be for areas west of
HWY 61, where meager instability could allow for convection to
survive into the eastern Panhandle from the high terrain.&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Southerly flow returns by late week, with highs returning back to
the 80s for the weekend. The increasing warm advection will also
bring richer moisture back northward, and instability expands across
the area Saturday and Sunday. With persistent northwesterly flow
established aloft, it appears at least some strong to severe
thunderstorm threat will return to western and north central
Nebraska. Mesoscale details will drive the degree of threat each
day, and is impossible to pin down at this range. However, the
bottom line remains, some threat for severe weather will return this
weekend and into next week, and trends will need to be monitored
closely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Low stratus will persist through late this morning, with
MVFR/IFR CIGs continuing. Gradual improvement back to at least
low-end VFR is expected for all area terminals this afternoon.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will also persist into this
afternoon, with brief MVFR visibilities expected. Low stratus
then overspreads the area again into Thursday morning, with
widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs expected.

Winds shift from northerly to easterly this evening, at around
10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion