341
FXUS63 KLBF 222030
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
330 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-An active pattern will develop and bring the potential for
 several rounds of precipitation Wednesday through early next
 week. This includes the chance for thunderstorms, particularly
 Wednesday and next weekend.

-A disorganized line of showers and/or thunderstorms may develop
 this evening and move across west central Nebraska. This line
 of showers will produce very little rainfall, but it will
 provide for erratic gusty wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Surface high pressure prevails across West Central Nebraska today,
providing for continued dry and warm conditions, but also a welcome
reprieve from the wind.  The visible channels show clear skies, with
the exception of a broken weak cumulus that developed from southwest
into north central Nebraska.  The weak cu were a result of gravity
waves emanating from the central Rockies.  Another area of
scattered cumulus that we are watching extends from the Laramie
Range northeast towards the Pine Ridge.  At this time the cumulus is
disorganized, but nearly all the CAMS suggest the eventual
development into a disorganized line or cluster/s/ that move
eastward across the Sandhills and southwest Neb.  The
convection/showers will not be all that concerning, but given the
various range fires and RX burns today, outflow and gusty erratic
winds are a concern.  Mesoanalysis does not support as strong
downward momentum transfer as we saw yesterday, but there is the
inverted v/onion bulb sounding with modest DCAPE values that briefly
approach 1000 j/kg early this evening.  Ensembles point to southwest
Nebraska with the highest probabilities /less than 30%/ but there
are scattered probabilities near 20% that extend into the Sandhills.

Looking at thunderstorm chances for tomorrow, probabilities increase
markedly late afternoon and evening as southwest flow ushers in a
pertabation while a frontal boundary settles just south of the
forecast area.  A reservoir of moisture rich air slowly works into
the central high plains through the day, though the richer
instability/moisture remains south of the boundary.  The CAMs are
converging on a solution where isolated weak showers/storms develop
north of the boundary through the day, but the main show comes in
the evening hours when moisture surges northward with the front to
near I80.  Strong to severe elevated convection is the result with
beneficial rainfall expected.  Severe params support large hail and
strong wind gusts as the storms converge into clusters.  The ECMWF
EFI points to somewhat of an unusual rainfall event generally south
of I80 into the early morning hours Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Looking ahead to late week cluster analysis is in solid agreement
that southwest flow aloft will continue to usher in pertubations
leading to an active pattern.  Near daily chances of showers and/or
storms will be expected.  Once again the EFI points to somewhat of
an unusual event Saturday through Monday for CAPE values.  SPC has
the eastern quarter of the CWA highlighted in their day 7 outlook
/next Monday/ and we wouldn`t be surprised to see the addition of an
outlook for Saturday and especially Sunday as machine learning
probabilities continue to trend upward across the high plains.
Temperatures return closer to climo during the unsettled period,
however the long range ensembles favor deepening of the upstream
trough next weekend with amplification of the downstream ridge.
Temperatures respond favorably with highs approaching 80F or warmer
for a good portion of the forecast area Sunday and Monday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. There will
be some mid level clouds that will move in late afternoon and
evening as an isolated chance for showers moves in. Showers will
be isolated, but any shower that does move over the area could
potential have strong, erratic winds, very little rainfall is
expected so don`t expect visibility impacts. Rain chances will
increase late morning with the best chance of rain showers
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jacobs
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion