356
FXUS63 KLBF 062322
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low confidence in some isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening with a marginal severe risk.
- Moderate confidence in patchy fog across portions of southwest
Nebraska early Friday morning.
- Moderate to high confidence in a return to above normal
temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend.
- Low to moderate confidence in near-daily thunderstorm chances
returning Saturday lasting through Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
Isolated thunderstorm potential is still anticipated across portions
of north central Nebraska. While not overly confident in development
as there is significant disagreements in the CAMs and ample CIN
remains over the region. However, there is a dry line and surface
trough across the Panhandle/southwest South Dakota as well as a
narrow ribbon of instability across southwest Nebraska and into the
Sandhills that would support some isolated convection if initiation
can occur. Not entirely certain this will happen, but have
introduced some low chance PoPs (30 percent or less) across Cherry
county and into the Sandhills to account for the potential.
Initiation, should it occur, will be within the next couple of hours
(4pm-6pm CT) across Cherry county. Storms will remain fairly
discrete initially and have the capability of producing briefly
severe hail and gusty winds. Storms will push southeastward into the
Sandhills through early evening, becoming more scattered before
weakening shortly after sunset by late evening. A dry forecast will
then return for Thursday night with lows dropping down to near
normal (low 60s).
For tonight...increased low level moisture across south central and
into portions of southwest Nebraska combined with light winds and
mostly clear skies will create a favorable environment for fog
development Friday morning. At this time, anticipating fog to remain
patchy with visibilities remaining above 5 miles. The latest
probabilities support this as the probability of seeing under 5
miles is near 25 percent for only Custer county. Elsewhere it is
less than a 20 percent probability. However, due to the patchy
nature of the fog, would not be surprised to still see some
visibilities lower than 5 miles across portions of the area,
especially in low lying areas or along river valleys. Be prepared
for rapidly changing conditions if traveling Friday morning. Due to
the light and relatively patchy nature, fog should dissipate by mid
morning giving way to a mostly clear and dry forecast for the day on
Friday.
Temperatures will continue their warming trend on Friday as well,
rising up into the upper 80s (north) to the mid 90s (southwest).
Overnight lows tonight will return to near normal in the low 60s for
most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
For the extended period... guidance suggests upper level ridging may
be weaker than originally anticipated. This will allow for a gradual
return to near daily thunderstorm chances beginning on Saturday
evening now. There is even a potential on Friday night/early
Saturday morning, but currently expecting the strongest storms to
remain across the east and north. However, across north central
Nebraska, some minimal instability across the region could support
some daytime showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. A series of
troughs will continue to pivot through through Nebraska and the
central Plains allowing for near daily afternoon/evening
thunderstorms Wednesday. These storms will be primarily diurnally
driven and could intensify overnight as the low level jet increases.
At this time the severe risk remains uncertain, but would not be
surprised if a stronger storm or two develops with gusty winds being
the main threat, although some small hail could be possible in some
of the stronger storms.
Otherwise, the only other major concern in the extended period will
be the increasing temperatures through Sunday. Highs will generally
rise into the mid to upper 90s west of a Brady to Valentine line
Saturday and Sunday. To the east of this line, highs are expected to
rise into the low 90s. Warm temperatures continue into Monday,
although, they won`t be quite as high as the weekend as the overall
pattern slowly shifts and some cooler air will begin working into
northern Nebraska. Expect a range from the upper 80s across north
central to the upper 90s in southwest Nebraska on Monday.
Temperatures fall back to near or slightly below normals on Tuesday
and Wednesday ranging from the low 80s in north central to the low
90s in southwest Nebraska.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail into tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. By early Friday morning, low
stratus and patchy fog development is expected again across
portions of central Nebraska, with periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs and
visibilities. It appears this will remain just east of the KLBF
terminal at this time, though trends will continue to be
monitored.
Winds remain southerly tonight, at 10 to 15kts. Winds then
become northerly by early tomorrow afternoon, gusting as high as
20 to 25kts for all terminals.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion