165
FXUS63 KLBF 052008
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
308 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue this week with 80s/90s
  Tuesday, and 70s/80s each day Wednesday through Saturday.

- Confidence remains high (80-90%) that dry conditions persist
  for most if not all locations until the weekend.

- A pattern change will bring more seasonable temperatures early
  next week along with an increased rain potential though
  precise details remain uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

This afternoon, gusty south southwest winds were the primary change
to the sensible weather across the local area. Midday wind gust
readings ranged from 25 to 35 mph with the strongest occurring
across the Sandhills into portions of central Nebraska. Temperatures
were in the upper 70s to lower 80s for much of the area with
additional warming expected with continued insolation for 3-5 more
hours.

For tonight, winds should gradually weaken through the late
afternoon and evening. This is attributable to the departure of the
low-level speed max, located roughly 1-2km AGL, to the east. Winds
should persist into the evening, though weaker, as the low-level jet
stretches from northwest Kansas into southeastern South Dakota. This
will promote mild lows across north central Nebraska tonight as
winds manage to mix to the surface. Expect values only in the 50s,
with some sheltered locations like river valleys holding onto the
upper 40s.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...another quite warm day is expected on
Tuesday with various guidance suggesting more widespread 80s and
potential for a few locations to hit the 90s. Surface trough will
settle east through the area by early in the day with veering light
winds for the daytime. Day over day increases with h85 temperatures,
roughly 3-5C for most locations, suggest warmer peak temperatures
should be possible from Monday`s observations. NBM inner-quartile
values do show an increase across the board with tight clustering
suggesting fairly high confidence in occurrence. HREF probabilities
for MaxT values exceeding 80F are nearly 100% across all areas but
fall off considerably for exceeding 85F, particularly north of the
Platte Valley system. Even with this in mind, statistical guidance
has been fairly good recently and so the forecast highs lean
considerably on the MET/METBC with a slight nudge to MAV/MAVBC
output. The latter of these groups suggests monthly record highs
could be in jeopardy, but this seems fairly unlikely thus the
preference of leaning on the former. While drier air from the high
terrain should spill east into west central Nebraska leading to
humidity minimums falling into the 15 to 25 percent range, winds
will fall short of 15 mph and keep any and all fire concerns low. A
weak frontal boundary will settle south into the area late in the
day with reinforcing high pressure quickly following. The
introduction of northerly flow drawing in drier air should allow for
a somewhat cooler night though lows will still hold in the upper 40s
to lower 50s for the area though timing of this front may lead to
further cooling in subsequent forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Northwesterly flow will persist mid-week through the following
weekend as low amplitude ridging resides off the southern California
coast and deep troughing lingers across the Hudson Bay. While the
forecast is largely dry for the latter half of the week, a subtle
wrinkle could lead to some light precipitation potential Thursday
though confidence in occurrence is low. Approaching high pressure
may foster some weak fgen/moisture convergence on the leading edge
and be enough to lead to shower and thunderstorm development.
There`s no NWP solution more bullish on this than the 12z NAM12
which not only shows fairly expansive coverage of rain/thunderstorms
but also suggests rainfall amounts will exceed 1" for many
locations. This seems fairly far-fetched given < 1" precipitable
water values and uncertainties on enough lift to even materialize to
lead to this activity. Even so, though to a much lesser degree, the
early morning ECMWF shows some modest QPF splotches in the area and
like the GFS, remains fairly inconsistent on this potential with
wavering between subsequent model runs. There appears to be some
ensemble support with EPS/GEFS both showing non-zero probabilities
for measurable rain in the area though the NBM is very slow to pick
up on this. For now, will keep PoPs limited to 10-14% which
maintains a dry forecast but is a sizable increase from previous
forecasts.

Friday into the weekend sees the beginning of a pattern change. Deep
troughing will dive into the Pacific Northwest as ridging begins to
wane over the eastern Pacific. Ridge breakdown locally begins Friday
and continues into the weekend as southwesterly flow resumes. A
pronounced h5 low should take shape by early next week which will
likely stall the feature and delay its arrival onto the Plains.
Multiple lead impulses ahead of the parent trough should support at
least low-end precipitation chances late Sunday into Monday. With
the arrival of the main upper-level low, precipitation chances
should steadily increase. The NBM broadbrushes "Chance" categorical
PoPs (35-45%) for late Monday into Tuesday and feel this is adequate
for now. Some timing differences exist within the global models so
later forecasts will likely see these values cleaned up some as
confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Avitation concerns focus on gusty winds, which should slowly
subside through the afternoon. Some LLWS will be possible,
particularly across southwest Nebraska where the LLJ may linger
longer. Some guidance hints at the potential for fog in the
morning but given low probabilities from ensemble guidance, will
omit mention at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion