FXUS63 KLBF 071142

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

A prefrontal surface trough extended across western Nebraska.
Skies were mostly clear with mild temperatures in the mid to upper
50s northwest Sandhills, to the mid and upper 40s elsewhere. Winds
were mostly light westerly.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

A weak cold front will move through western Nebraska this morning.
while temperatures aloft will be slightly cooler than yesterday, a
west northwest wind will aid in a downslope warming. Highs will
mostly range in the mid 70s. Skies will remain mostly sunny during
the day. The main forecast concern today will be Red Flag
conditions developing across the western half of the area this
afternoon. Details can be found below in the Fire Weather section.

For Tonight, mild temperatures aloft will move over western
Nebraska, as a stronger cold front drops south reaching the
northwest Sandhills by daybreak. A light west wind and drier air
will be in place over the area with lows from the upper 30s to
lower 40s northwest, to the mid 40s southeast.

On Wednesday, the cold front will push quickly south through the
far southern counties by 18Z. A northerly wind will be breezy at
15 to 30 mph. Once winds mix out by late morning, highs will
remain fairly steady in the upper 50s to near 60 south and the
upper 40s to lower 50s north. There is a small possibility for
sprinkles or a brief light rain showers across northern Nebraka
Wednesday morning, mainly north of Highway 20. An upper jet max
from northeastern South Dakota into northern Minnesota will
provide weak upper level divergence across northern Nebraska.
Moisture will be shallow (up to 10K feet) and short lived. Will
leave out mention attm. Skies will be cloudy across north central
Nebraska in the morning, then partly cloudy to briefly mostly
cloudy all areas in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

A reinforcement of cooler air will move in on Thursday, with highs
from the upper 40s northeast, to the upper 50s southwest. Breezy
northwest winds also across the northeast.

A brief warmup on Friday ahead of a cold front moving into the
Northern High Plains. Highs to return to the mid 60s most

The upper flow will become active as a series of disturbances
rounds the main upper trough across south central Canada. Mostly
a slight chance for light rain Friday night, followed by higher
chances for rain Saturday into Saturday evening, then mostly light
snow Saturday night into Sunday. Highest chances across the west.

An arctic front passage and the base of the upper trough will
bring much colder temperatures aloft Saturday night and Sunday for
mainly snow. While highs Saturday cool to the upper 40s to mid
50s, highs by Sunday and Monday cool to the upper 30s to near 40.
Snow chances diminish Sunday night into Monday. Lows By Sunday
night and Monday night also quite cold from the upper teens to
lower 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

VFR conditions the next 24 hours across western Nebraska.
Currently SKC across much of western Nebraska. Winds will remain
light northwest this morning at KLBF and KVTN. Winds will
increase to 30014Gg23KT at KLBF from 18Z until 00z/08th. At KVTN,
winds should remain 12KT or less 19Z until 23Z. FEW-SCT250
expected this afternoon into tonight at KLBF and KVTN.


Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

Very warm temperatures mostly in the mid 70s are expected this
afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. West
northwesterly winds will increase late morning with early afternoon
sustained speeds of 15 MPH all areas west of Merriman through
Broken Bow with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 mph. This will also
push drier air east into central Nebraska. During the afternoon,
steep lapse rates, will provide excellent mixing across western
and central Nebraska. With frequent gusts in the 20 to 25 MPH
range, and a few gusts as high as 35 mph and minimum RH of 15 to
20 percent in zones 204, 206, 210 and 219, the Red Flag Warning
will continue. Minimum RH in zone 209 will reach 20 to 25 percent
Tuesday afternoon in Custer and Loup County which is very near to
RFW criteria (min RH warning threshold of 20 percent). Wind speeds
will be lighter as you head into portions of central Nebraska and
into the eastern Sandhills. And after conversing with GID, will
not put any fire headlines out for zone 209.


Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ206-210-219.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.



LONG TERM...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion