727
FXUS63 KLBF 271122
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
possible again this afternoon across western and northern
Nebraska.
- Daily precipitation chances are possible today through the
weekend. However, confidence remains low in precipitation
placement, as forcing appears to be weak.
- Uncertainty remains in the forecast heading into next week, as
guidance struggles with the upper level pattern. For now, near
seasonal temperatures and precipitation chances are expected,
but this is subject to change as guidance comes into consensus.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
A blocky upper air pattern will persist across the area for at
least the next few days. An upper level low pressure system will
slowly drop southward along the west coast through the end of the
work week. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure will persist over the
Mississippi Valley region. Meanwhile, a shortwave disturbance will
slowly move northward across the Southern High Plains on the eastern
periphery of the western CONUS upper low. This will eventually
weaken but still be a factor as it moves into KS and NE by the end
of the week.
Concern for today will be the elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions that are expected to materialize once again. Morning dew
points in the mid to upper 50s, will quickly mix out into the 40s by
this afternoon due to the shallow nature of the moisture. Highs will
reach the mid to upper 80s with even some lower 90s across far north
central Nebraska. At this time will not issue any headlines, as the
stronger southeast wind gusts should remain west of Highway 83,
while the lower humidity will be to the east. As mentioned above,
the Southern Plains shortwave/upper low will be located across the
TX/OK Panhandles today. Southeast upper level flow to the north of
this feature could carry an isolated thunderstorm into far
southwest Nebraska late this afternoon into early this evening.
Humidity should be a but higher Thursday, as somewhat deeper low-
level moisture works northward into the area. Gusty southeast winds
do continue, but with the higher humidity fire weather should remain
capped at elevated. As the shortwave works it`s way slowly
northward, and increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms will
occur though the day. Flow aloft will remain southeast both at the
surface and aloft, carrying any convection from KS or new
development northwestward across the area into Thursday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Friday, the upper level low to the west begins to lift north. This
will continue to track a plume of Gulf moisture across the region,
with deep moisture expected across the region. As with the rest of
this week, the question remains whether sufficient forcing will be
present to focus showers and thunderstorm activity across the
region. With the weaker upper level winds and generally weak
forcing, still expect a relatively slow storm movement, allowing for
heavy rainfall should thunderstorms develop. Better chances of rain
are expected Saturday afternoon and evening, as the upper level
trough continues lifting north. This should provide better focus
with a low pressure system at the surface, bringing showers and
thunderstorms across the region. This is further backed by ensemble
guidance, which continues to highlight at least daily chances for
precipitation, with highest chances (around 70 to 100 percent)
Saturday into Sunday.
Confidence is lower heading into early next week, as guidance begins
to struggle with the upper level pattern. For now, at least a slight
chance to chance for precipitation remains into early next week with
near seasonal temperatures, but will need to see how forecast trends
play out in the next few days. Current guidance from the GFS and
ECMWF both have very differing solutions on the placement of the
upper trough early next week, with one suggesting a deepening of the
low and a retrograde, and the other tracking the low across the
northern Plains. Will have a better feel for the precipitation
potential early week once these solutions come into a consensus.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Gusty southeast winds are
expected to pick up this morning, lasting through the afternoon. By
evening, winds begin to calm. Today, fair weather cumulus is
expected to develop, with no impacts on ceilings. Later tonight,
however, a stratus deck begins to track across southwest Nebraska,
which is expected to bring lower ceilings, with some guidance
suggesting possible MVFR conditions. Confidence in these ceilings is
low at this time, so will omit from TAFs for now.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion