772
FXUS63 KLBF 242334
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
  afternoon into this evening across western Nebraska, mainly
  west of Highway 183. A few strong storms are possible, and may
  contain gusty winds and small hail.

- Cooler on Saturday with continued chances for showers and a few
  thunderstorms.

- A system will move into the region Saturday night into Sunday,
  bringing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms to western
  and north central Nebraska.

- Cooler and breezy conditions are expected Monday, with
  minimal fire weather concerns due to higher humidity and
  scattered precipitation.

- Additional chances for precipitation may return through late
  next week, though confidence remains low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Late this afternoon into tonight...a closed low will remain across
southeastern Saskatchewan CA into tonight with an upper trough
across the Northern Plains into western NE. There is a concern for
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and into the evening.
Some modest instability will exist south of Highway 2 with CAPE
values up to 500 J/kg and 30-45kts of effective bulk shear by early
evening. A cold front will also drop through the northwest
Sandhills by early evening. A few strong storms are possible
near the advancing cold front and further south into southwest
Nebraska. Strong wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail are
possible with the strongest storms. The highest POPs will be
across north central Nebraska through tonight, where local
rainfall amounts could exceed a quarter inch.

Saturday...much cooler behind an advancing cold front with highs 45
to 50 north central and 50 to 55 south. Status with low cloud
ceilings in the morning will gradually improve during the
afternoon. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms, with
the higher POPS east of Highway 83 during the morning into early
afternoon.

Saturday night into Sunday...a large upper trough will move across
the Desert Southwest to west of the Four Corners Region. Ahead of
this feature, a shortwave trough in southwest flow aloft will bring
widespread showers across western Nebraska by later Saturday night,
and all of western and north central Nebraska on Sunday. This
period will provide a very favorable opportunity for widespread
rainfall. NBM ensemble probability of a half inch or more
rainfall is from 55 to 75 percent across the forecast area.
There will also be a threat for a few strong to severe storms
across the southeastern half of the forecast area on Sunday,
mainly southeast of a line from Grant through Ainsworth.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The weekend storm system will begin to exit the region Monday, with
scattered showers expected through the day as the area remains on
the backside of the low pressure system. Colder air will filter in
behind the system, with highs Monday ranging from the upper 40s
north to the mid 50s south. Breezy conditions will also develop,
with northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts approaching 40 mph.
Despite the wind, fire weather concerns will remain minimal due to
scattered precipitation and relative humidity values generally in
the 50 percent range. By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will
build south into the area, leading to lows at or below freezing.
Another weak disturbance will move into the region Tuesday
afternoon, bringing scattered rain chances. Some model guidance
hints at light wet snow across the northern Sandhills, though
current expectations are for precipitation to remain primarily
rain. Highs on Tuesday will remain slightly below normal, generally
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

On Wednesday, this disturbance will shift east of the area, with
northwest flow aloft leading to drier conditions and near-seasonal
temperatures. While most guidance supports dry conditions, the EPS
does indicate some precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon, mainly
across western Nebraska, though confidence in this solution remains
low. Highs will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Fire weather
concerns should remain low, with relative humidity values mostly
above 25 percent, lighter winds and the potential for wetting
rainfall over the weekend. The exception may be far southwest
Nebraska, where RH values could briefly approach 20 percent, though
overall fire weather concerns remain limited.

Heading into late next week, an active pattern may return as another
southern stream trough moves into the southwestern United States,
promoting west-southwest flow aloft across the region. Confidence
remains low in the timing and track of this system, as current
guidance suggests it may remain south of the area. The system will
continue to monitored over the next several days, but it could
represent the next opportunity for beneficial moisture beyond the
upcoming weekend system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will develop and move into the region this
evening impacting both terminals. Visibility restrictions down to 2
miles are possible at times with these showers. Isolated rain will
continue into Saturday morning before diminishing by the afternoon.
The thunderstorm potential will be low on Saturday with light rain
and brief reductions in visibility being the main threats.
Conditions will slowly improve by late Saturday afternoon, but
ceilings will remain as low as 1000 feet through this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion