FXUS63 KLBF 131201

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
601 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Latest satellite NtMicro RGB imagery shows spreading low clouds
across the Sandhills and north central NEB under thin-thick high
clouds. Meanwhile, radar display shows precipitation has more or
less tapered off across extreme northern NEB the last three hours.
Overall the main sensible weather concerns revolve around
temperatures in the short term. Latest observed and NOHRSC modeled
snow depth shows snow cover will continue to be a factor with
respect to high temperatures. Snow depth across the Sandhills range
generally from 2-6 inches, elsewhere generally a trace upwards to 3
inches. Cooler air moves in overhead early today with highs expected
to read a couple to several degrees cooler than yesterday. Highs are
expected to be near seasonable values nonetheless, in the mid to
upper 30s. Otherwise, breezy conditions are expected today. Max
winds early today are forecast between 17-25 mph with gusts as high
as 30-35 mph with winds then lessening mid-late afternoon. Late
today, 500 hPa rises spread across the region as a mid-level ridge
builds upstream that then moves overhead Friday. This will start a
warming trend Friday with highs rising mainly into the lower to
mid 40s, about 5-10 degrees above seasonable values. Some concern
regarding highs and what will be realized given snow cover so may
need to adjust these.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Saturday and beyond. Upper level ridge to build across the
Sandhills region early Saturday morning with the axis east of the
area by mid-day. Behind the ridge, a shortwave will rapidly
advance across the northern High Plains forcing a weak cold front
across the region late afternoon. Before the arrival, downsloping
SW flow at the surface will advect warmer temperatures across the
Sandhills. Highs are projected to warm 4-6 degrees Fahrenheit,
which suggests readings in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The snowpack
should fade considerably. Otherwise, the front and wave pass
through uneventfully with the dry conditions continuing.

Post frontal temperatures will be cooler on Sunday by a degree or
two, but still above normal for the time of year.  Temperatures warm
several degrees early next week as another strong upper level ridge
develops over the Rockies.  The ridge breaks down to the east of the
forecast areas early Tuesday and with a fairly deep closed low/wave
to our southwest/west.  The GFS has continued suggesting that the
low will drop south across the Desert Southwest and briefly put us
under the influence of southwest flow.  With this I would expect a
general increase in mid/upper level moisture with a fair bit of
clouds Tuesday.  Temperatures would moderate a few degrees, but
again largely stay above normal. GFS soundings from the Sandhills
and southwest Nebraska show saturation sufficient enough for
sprinkles or light rain in an area of lift from a secondary mid-
level low atop the CWA. A hundreth or two QPF from Lincoln County
northeast into far southwest Holt County would be possible but at
this point, the precipitation is suspect, so will monitor and keep
the forecast dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CST Thu Dec 13 2018

Sky cover is clearing gradually across far western NEB with clear
skies across the NEB Panhandle. Low stratus present across much
of north central NEB with MVFR to low-end VFR (less than 7 kft)
ceilings. Meanwhile, breezy conditions continue with gusts out of
the northwest 25-35 MPH. Today, sky cover will continue to
decrease from west to east with clear-partly cloudy skies area-
wide by late morning. Breezy northwest winds will continue through
early-mid afternoon with peak gusts up to 35 mph today. Winds
will then lessen late afternoon on with light winds expected
tonight, generally out of the west.




LONG TERM...Jacobs

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion