102
FXUS63 KLBF 121153
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
553 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible this morning mainly from north central
  into portions of central Nebraska.

- Cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected today and
  Friday with highs ranging from the lower 40s to upper 50s.

- Cool temperatures Saturday, with highs in the 40s, with only a
  slight chance for light rain showers across southwest Nebraska
  Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- A quick return to above seasonal temperatures in the 50s is
  expected Monday through Wednesday. Low chances for rain
  showers return next Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 109 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

H5 analysis tonight had high pressure anchored over Utah. A high
amplitude ridge extended north, then northeast into northern
portions of the Hudson Bay of Canada. East of this feature, a
tandem of shortwaves were present over the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. One shortwave was located over central Wisconsin with a
second over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Upstream of
the ridge, a trough of low pressure extended from the Gulf of
Alaska to approximately 700 miles off the coast of southern
California. A back door cold front was approaching far northeastern
Nebraska as of late evening. Winds overnight were generally from
the east or northeast and were generally light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

The shortwave trough over central Wisconsin, will track south into
the lower Ohio Valley today. This feature will force a back door
cold front into north central and southeastern portions of the forecast
area today. By midday, this feature will be oriented from near Valentine
to Broken Bow. On the leading edge of this front, the combination
of cold air advection and a near saturated airmass near the surface,
may lead to fog formation preceding the frontal passage. This fog
threat should be confined to a narrow corridor and will be transitory
in nature, spreading east to west through late morning. As the front
is forced west, winds behind the front, should mix out the boundary
layer, ending the fog threat. With the strong cold air advection today
and H85 temps falling to -2 to -3C in the northeast, highs will struggle
to reach the middle 40s. Highs in the 40s will continue west to a
line from roughly Merriman to North Platte. Along and west of this
line, highs will reach into the middle and upper 50s. The front will
track further west tonight, approaching the western Sandhills and
far SW Nebraska overnight tonight. There is some indication of fog
development along the leading edge of this front with the latest 00z
HRRR visby product and ConsShort indicating fog with visibilities
under 1 mile. However, the latest NBM ensembles have less than a
20 percent chance for visbys reaching 5SM Friday morning in the western
third of the forecast area. That being said, will hold off on fog
mention for tonight with this forecast package given the low confidence
in the NBM forecast tonight. Lows tonight will be chilly, in the east
due to a combination of clear skies, light winds and drier air. Readings
will range from the lower 20s in the east to near 30 along the frontal
boundary in the west. On Friday, surface high pressure will drift
east into the upper Mississippi Valley. Winds will shift around to
the south Friday afternoon, however, the cold airmass will be in
place across most of the forecast area. Highs will range from the
lower 40s in the east to the lower to middle 50s west of highway 83.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 109 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

The upper trough in the eastern CONUS will lift into the eastern
Great Lakes and New England by Saturday, as a negatively tilted
upper trough digs from the Pacific Northwest into the Central
and Southern Rockies. This will bring deep surface low pressure
across the Front Range of CO and WY and south to southeast winds
20 to 30 mph across the forecast area. Highs will be cool in
the mid 40s. By Saturday night, a closed low is forecast to develop
over the Texas panhandle with showers developing across western
Kansas and eastern Colorado. Shower chances have decreased to only
a slight chance across southwest Nebraska. On Sunday, just a slight
chance across far southwest Nebraska in the morning as the closed
upper low moves east across Oklahoma. The bulk of the showers will
remain well to our south across Kansas. Highs from the upper 40s
to lower 50s. Monday and Tuesday, upper ridging will traverse the
region and an upper trough along the West Coast moves into the Desert
Southwest. Highs will range in the 50s both days, from 5 to almost
15 degrees above normal. By Wednesday, the upper trough will advance
through the Four Corners and Central Rockies, and could track faster
and deeper as shown by the deterministic ECMWF. In this case a closed
low could move from nern CO into western NE. Shower chances have
increased to 30 percent by Wednesday afternoon. Confidence is below
average in the track and timing of this system. Highs Wednesday in
the mid to upper 50s, which would be from 10 to almost 15 degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 553 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

As a backdoor cold front moves into the region, LIFR ceilings
can be expected across portions of north central NE, including
the KVTN terminal through 16Z, then improving to MVFR. Vsbys
will range as low as 1SM, with a tempo for 4SM through 16Z. VFR
conditions are expected at KLBF the next 24 hours. Winds will
become light east this morning at 5 to 10KT and into this
afternoon, then light southeast tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion