768
FXUS63 KLBF 151130
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
630 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are again possible across portions of western
  and southwest Nebraska this evening and tonight. A few storms
  could be strong to severe, with large hail, damaging winds,
  and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Another threat for strong to severe storms is possible Sunday
  afternoon and evening for areas along and west of HWY 61.

- The unsettled pattern continues into early next week, with
  near daily threats for showers and thunderstorms continuing
  across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to exit southwest and central Nebraska
early this morning, with any lingering precipitation expected to
remain confined to north central Nebraska by early afternoon. The
main threat with these early morning thunderstorms looks to be
locally heavy rainfall, before briefly drier conditions return for
the afternoon hours.

By late this afternoon, yet another round of thunderstorms is
expected to form to the west across eastern WY/CO and portions of
the Panhandle. Much like this morning`s activity, these storms will
gradually propagate south and east as they grow upscale with time.
An initial threat for large hail while storms remain at least semi-
discrete, though this may largely occur of to the west. By the time
storms arrive late evening, guidance hints at this being in
clusters or a loosely organized line. This suggests that the
main severe threat locally would be damaging wind gusts. Locally
heavy rain will also be a threat, with PWAT values still
exceeding the 90th percentile climo across the area. Will have
to continue to monitor for a threat for localized flash flooding
tonight, primarily in areas that saw heavy rain from this
morning`s storms across western and southwest Nebraska. Dry
conditions return after midnight, with lows falling into the
upper 50s to low 60s across the area.

A similar scenario looks to play out on Sunday, with again another
round of thunderstorms possible across western Nebraska. Confidence
in coverage and placement of these storms remains low for now, with
guidance suggesting the greatest coverage further west across
eastern and northeastern Colorado. The main difference in tomorrow
versus previous days is lessening instability with eastward extent,
and any severe threat looks to largely remain along and west of HWY
61 Sunday evening. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main
threats, with adequate deep layer shear (~30-35kts) and modest
instability in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The active pattern looks to continue as we head into early next
week, as upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS.
This leads to strong and persistent west-northwest flow aloft.
Guidance suggests more than a few shortwaves will progress through
the mean flow aloft, with a near daily threat for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. PWAT values will also fall into next
week, as we lose the monsoonal tap with the transition to northwest
flow. Some threat for severe storms will also persist into early
next week, mainly across western Nebraska.

Temperatures look to remain near to below average into next week as
well, with daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s into midweek.
Tuesday looks to be the exception to this, with strong warm
advection ahead of an approaching frontal boundary boosting highs
into the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will keep any heat
concerns away, with a pleasant week expected temperature wise
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through tomorrow morning. Scattered thunderstorm development is
possible across western Nebraska late this afternoon, moving
east into the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska this evening and
tonight. These storms will pose a risk for brief MVFR
visibilities and gusty, erratic winds.

Winds become northeasterly today and tonight, at around 10 to
15kts this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion