502
FXUS63 KLBF 222318
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
618 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible (15-25%) across portions
  of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills Saturday afternoon
  and evening. Though severe weather is not expected, these
  storms may produce gusty winds.

- A threat for strong to severe storms returns Sunday afternoon
  and evening, primarily for areas near and east of Highway 83.
  Hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Monday and
  Tuesday, with highs potentially reaching the upper 80s to lows
  90s across much of the area.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon into the
  evening, though the severe threat appears low at this time.&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A cold front has cleared the area off to the east, with lingering
precipitation over north central Nebraska ending early this
afternoon. Gusty northwest winds persist in the wake of this
boundary, with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour
across the area.

For tonight, expect winds to quickly weaken after sunset as surface
high pressure begins to move through the area by sunrise tomorrow
morning. This will lead to weak winds overnight, and should promote
temperatures cooling into the upper 30s to low 40s across the area.
Any frost concerns look to remain limited at best, as high
cloudiness begins to move into the area early tomorrow morning.
Winds are also expected to become more south and southwesterly
around sunrise tomorrow, as the surface high begins to exit off to
the southeast of the area. This should limit any frost concerns
across western Nebraska, and have opted to forego any frost
headlines at this time.

As the aforementioned surface high continues to push off to the
east of the area, the increasing southerly flow in its wake
will lead to modest moisture return northwards into the area.
Although dewpoints only are expected to be in the lower to
middle 40s tomorrow afternoon, steep lapse rates aloft look to
promote MLCAPE as high as ~500-750 J/kg across portions of
southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. Weak surface convergence
near a surface trough in western Nebraska looks to be just
enough to initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon across portions of the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska. Deep layer shear looks marginally supportive of
organized updrafts (~20-30kts 0-6km Shear) and could allow for a
stronger storm or two. The main threat looks to be gusty winds,
as the large T/Td spreads lead to inverted-v thermodynamic
profiles across the area. Storms quickly wane after sunset, as
the boundary layer stabilizes and CIN increases. Lows tomorrow
night fall into the middle to upper 40s as southerly flow
persists.

Attention then turns to a more interesting setup for storms on
Sunday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned southerly flow
persists into Sunday, with dewpoints expected to climb into the
middle to upper 50s across southwest into central Nebraska. By
late afternoon, a surface trough will be positioned near the HWY
83 corridor, bisecting the area from southwest to northeast. As
northwesterly flow strengthens aloft, shear increases to
~30-40kts and orients largely perpendicular to this surface
boundary. Combine this with long hodographs and increasing
MLCAPE (~1500-2000J/kg) and this points to a threat for a few
supercells across portions of the area Sunday. Large hail looks
to be the primary threat with any supercells, though a threat
for damaging winds will likely also exist. This is supported in
the recent SPC outlook update, with a marginal risk now in place
for areas east of HWY 83 for Sunday. Trends will continue to be
monitored, and a threat for significant hail (>2") is possible
should discrete supercell mode be sustained Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Monday, mid-level heights will build and strengthen across the
region. This will support south to southwest 700-850 mb flow and
continued warm air advection across the area. Forecast 850 mb
temperatures in the 25 to 28C range combined with near dry adiabatic
lapse rates should support efficient mixing to the surface. Current
NBM 50th percentile guidance shows highs in the mid to upper 80s
across the area, though these values may be somewhat underdone. The
NBM 75th and 90th percentiles support highs in the lower 90s, which
appears more reasonable given the expected synoptic pattern and
mixing potential. Southerly winds will increase through the day
Monday, with sustained speeds generally ranging from 10 to 20 mph.
However, with near adiabatic lapse rates extending through roughly
700 mb, stronger winds aloft should mix efficiently to the surface
during peak heating. Despite the warm and dry conditions, recent
wetting rainfall should help limit fire weather concerns at this
time, though this will continue to be monitored over the next
several days. Some model guidance also hints at isolated
thunderstorm development Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
However, weak mid and upper level flow should keep the severe
weather threat low at this time. This will continue to be monitored,
as any increase in deep layer flow could support a greater severe
weather threat.

Tuesday, a southern stream trough is forecast to develop across the
far southwestern United States while another northern stream trough
digs into the northwestern United States. Ahead of the southern
stream system, low-level moisture will begin increasing across the
region once again. Despite increasing moisture, the strongest
forcing is expected to remain south of the area across the southern
Plains near the main upper trough. Temperatures Tuesday will likely
remain above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
though increasing moisture may keep temperatures somewhat cooler
than Monday. Fire weather concerns should remain limited due to
higher low-level moisture, though strengthening southerly winds will
continue to be monitored. Precipitation chances will largely depend
on the eventual placement of the southern stream trough and where
the strongest forcing develops.

Wednesday and beyond, a cutoff low is forecast to develop across the
western United States while troughing persists across the
northeastern United States. Between these features, a strong ridge
is expected to remain anchored across the north-central United
States, resulting in an omega block pattern through much of next
week. While this pattern would generally favor warmer and drier
conditions, the western trough may keep temperatures somewhat cooler
by late week, with highs trending back into the 70s. Precipitation
chances may also persist as disturbances ejecting from the western
trough interact with increasing moisture across the region.
Confidence in these details remains low, as precipitation potential
will depend on how far east the western trough progresses and
whether disturbances can continue moving beneath the blocking
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions the next 24 hours. SCT-BKN mid clouds will claer
out by sunset with only FEW250 expected overnight into Saturday.
At VTN, a northwest wind gusting to 25KT will diminsih by 01Z to
12KT, then below 10KT the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion