398
FXUS63 KLBF 220650
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
150 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures gradually warm through mid week, bringing at
  least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns each
  day, with greatest concerns on Monday and Wednesday.

- A cold front late week will bring slightly cooler temperatures
  to close out the week. However, highs behind the front will
  remain near to slightly above seasonal average.

- A mostly dry forecast this week. Although there is a slight
  chance for showers Monday morning and Thursday night, little
  to no precipitation is expected to reach the ground.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Surface low pressure was currently located over central Nebraska.
Strong pressure rises behind a cold front continues to have strong
northerly winds and gusts to 50 mph across the northwest Sandhills.
These strong wind gusts to 50 mph will move into southwest Nebraska,
including the I80 corridor through 09Z. Some blowing dust and
reduced visibility can also be expected. Temperatures behind the
front are much cooler in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Today, cloudy skies and stratus will linger over north central
Nebraska in the morning, scattering out by early afternoon. Gusty,
northerly winds to 30 mph will continue through the morning hours
before cold air advection ends by early afternoon. Despite the
significant cooldown from Saturday, high temperatures Sunday will
still be from 2 to 8 degrees above normal, ranging for near 52
northeast to 63 far southwest.

Tonight, surface winds will become southeast to south with skies
becoming mostly cloudy. A weak disturbance will move along the
Colorado/Nebraska border will bring just a slight chance for light
rain across far southwest Nebraska, south of I80. Lows will range
from the upper 30s west to low 30s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Upper level ridging returns across the region on Monday, bringing
warmer temperatures across western Nebraska. Expecting a range of
temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Panhandle to
the mid 50s across north central Nebraska. A surface low pushes a
boundary across the region, bringing gusty southerly winds across
the region Monday afternoon, with peak gusts around 40 mph across
portions of the western Sandhills. Again, expect to see a very dry
lower layer of the atmosphere, bringing afternoon relative humidity
down to less than 25 percent across the entire region. Given yet
another day of low relative humidity and gusty winds, expecting at
least near critical fire weather conditions across the region Monday
afternoon. Will be continuing to monitor forecast trends to
determine whether additional fire weather headlines will be needed.

Something worth keeping an eye on Monday morning into the afternoon
as the boundary pushes across the region. With a weak surface
disturbance and limited moisture aloft, model guidance begins to
suggest a slight possibility for light, brief rain showers. Granted,
this is very light precipitation, generally less than one tenth of
an inch. For what it`s worth, forecast soundings suggest fairly dry
low layers in the atmosphere, which may favor any precipitation
chances to result in virga. Even some of the more "aggressive"
guidance, such as the 00z HRRR shows a dry layer, so believe
precipitation amounts in these solutions are a bit overdone. Will
keep the mention in the forecast, but not expecting anything to
materialize from this.

A steady climb in temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
with highs climbing into the 70s and 80s on Tuesday, and widespread
highs in the 80s again on Wednesday. Again, seeing a similar set up
to yesterday for Wednesday, with a strong upper level ridge and
anomalously warm 850mb temperatures. However, noticing slightly
cooler 850mb temperatures with the latest guidance, which may limit
high temperatures a bit. Still, forecast highs from the
deterministic NBM remain on the cooler side of guidance, so would
not be surprised if some locations break into the lower 90s again.
With the warming temperatures, again expecting low relative humidity
values both afternoons. With this in play, expecting at least
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions both Tuesday and
Wednesday. However, slightly stronger wind gusts are expected on
Wednesday, so confidence is higher in near critical fire weather
conditions for Wednesday afternoon.

A cold front tracks through the region Wednesday night, bringing
slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday. However, highs on Thursday
still remain around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average. Gusty
northerly winds persist behind the front across the entire region
Thursday afternoon, and minimum humidity values drop to around 25
percent. With this set up in play, expecting additional potential
for at least elevated fire weather conditions. Will also be keeping
an eye on potential for some wrap around precipitation Thursday
night, but again, ensemble forecast guidance remains fairly
pessimistic on the area seeing any precipitation. While there is a
generally 10 to 20 percent chance of seeing one hundredth of an inch
or greater across portions of the region, chances of seeing one
tenth of an inch remain zero. Closing out the week, temperatures
remain right around to slightly above seasonal, with highs in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Strong northerly winds behind a cold front will pass through
southwest Nebraska through 09Z. Wind gusts up to 45 KTS are
possible including the KLBF terminal. Winds will begin to
slowly diminish Sunday morning with gusts up to 20 KTS possible
around 18z Sunday. MVFR ceilings have developing across north
central and are expected to persist until 17Z with ceilings as
low as 1000 FT AGL at the KVTN terminal.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ early this morning
for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion