394
FXUS63 KLBF 201702
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1202 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances increase today across southwestern NE into the central
Sandhills, with highs from the mid 50s to near 60.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night into
Friday, with 60%+ potential for seeing wetting rainfall
across much of southwest Nebraska.
- Temperatures warm early next week with dry conditions before a deep
upper-level low approaches from the west towards mid-week
leading to low-confidence in precise extended forecast
details.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM CDT for eastern
portions of north central Nebraska, where skies will remain mostly
clear, light and variable winds, and low reach 33 to 35 degrees,
with areas of frost. An increase in light south winds and increasing
cloudiness overnight should limit frost formation to the west.
Today, a disturbance currently over central Colorado will lift
northeast this morning into the southeast panhandle and southwest,
and the central Sandhills this afternoon. This will bring likely
rain chances to areas mainly near and south of Highway 2 and mainly
cloudy skies, with stratus persisting through much of the day. Warm
air advection indicated mainly in the H7 to H6 layer with weak
frontogenesis diminishing in the afternoon as the disturbance lifts
northeast today. South of Highway 2, HREF probability of a tenth of
an inch or more is 60 to 80 percent, with a 60 percent probability
of a quarter inch or more portions of southwest Nebraska. Rain is
not expected to reach portions of the northeast today. Highs only in
the mid 50s southwestern areas, to near 60 northeast.
Tonight, skies clear some across the north. Another disturbance will
move from eastern CO, across Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Far
southwest Nebraska will maintain a slight chance for showers
overnight. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above
any frost potential from 35 to around 40.
Thursday, the next system will deepen from Montana into the central
Rockies. Downstream, moisture will be on the increase from the
Southern Plains into western Nebraska as surface low pressure
deepens across New Mexico into southern Colorado. Southeast winds
will become breezy across the west by afternoon. Highs to range from
the mid 60s northern Nebraska, to the upper 50s to lower 60s south.
There will be low chances for showers in the morning across the
south. A lead disturbance will extend from southeast Wyoming into
the Colorado Front Range by late afternoon. This will bring
increasing chances for showers and few thunderstorms across the west
and south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Thursday Night/Friday...by late afternoon, convection should be
ongoing along the I-25 corridor from eastern Wyoming down through
central Colorado. This occurs as lee troughing draws southeasterly
moist flow up to the Front Range. This occurs as upper-level
troughing crosses the Great Basin and approaches the Continental
Divide. Within a moderately sheared environment, a narrow ribbon of
modest instability should support a limited severe threat well to
our southwest. As alluded to, this narrow ribbon of greater MUCAPE
will not extend far east. That said, persistent advection of theta-e
rich air off the surface and weak MUCAPE around 250-500 j/kg should
sustain convection ahead of the main upper-level low into southwest
Nebraska. Dry air does not appear to be a limiting factor, as
persistent southeasterly flow will maintain 7+ g/kg mixing ratios
which is near the median value of LBF RAOB climatology for late May.
While light showers are favored in the evening hours, the convection
originating from I-25 should begin to move into southwest Nebraska
near Midnight with further expansion of convection through the early
morning Friday. NBM probabilities for rainfall ramp up quickly
during this timeframe: with potential for exceeding 0.10" reaching
80%+ Friday morning for much of the southern Sandhills into
southwest Nebraska, and nearly 60-80% probabilities for exceeding
0.25" in the same timeframe for the same areas. The increased low-
level moisture and ongoing precipitation is expected to hold
temperatures in check and Thursday night lows have been boosted
across the board as a result. Through early Friday, the main upper-
level will cross the Central Rockies and begin to transition from
neutral to negative tilt. Precipitation will continue through the
day with ample instability to support thunderstorms. With stronger
shear in place to the south, the threat for severe weather should
favor western Kansas. Afternoon highs may be on the cooler side with
values only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing surface
trough will settle into western Nebraska by later in the day and
this along with the passing trough axis will bring a swift end to
precipitation west to east across the area though some wrap around
moisture from the h5 low may persist across our northern zones.
Behind departing precipitation, low temperatures should again fall
to the lower 40s with a few locations threatening the upper 30s.
Saturday and beyond...heights build across the Central High Plains
behind the exiting mid-level disturbance. Ridging will build across
the Desert Southwest and cross the Rockies by early next week. This
will coincide with warming temperatures as NBM guidance show median
temperatures at their warmest values of the forecast period: the
middle to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday. This will promote well
above normal temperatures with dry conditions for much of the
region. The upper pattern becomes fairly convoluted towards the
middle of next week as a deep h5 low takes shape over the Pacific
Northwest and settles east. Progression of this system is somewhat
uncertain, with deterministic solutions varying on timing and
placement of this and downstream influencing features. Because of
this, confidence in extended forecast details is limited and will
likely remain this way until extended guidance begins to hone in on
a similar solution.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026
Skies will remain mainly overcast today and tonight across
western and north central Nebraska. Light rain showers are
expected across southwestern Nebraska this afternoon, impacting
the KLBF terminal through late afternoon. Ceilings may reach
2500 FT AGL this afternoon at the KLBF terminal. VFR conditions
are expected through early morning Thursday at the KLBF
terminal. MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings are possible Thursday
morning across SW Nebraska. For the KVTN terminal: Expect broken
to overcast ceilings ranging from 5000 to 8000 FT AGL over the
next 24 hours.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion