200
FXUS63 KLBF 232036
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
336 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers possible this afternoon into early evening
- Strong westerly winds continue to shift to the northwest this
afternoon and evening
- Additional chances of rain/snow showers overnight, with rain
showers possible Friday through Friday night
- Moderate confidence (60 - 80%) in widespread precipitation
Saturday night through Monday morning.
- Cooler, near normal temperatures next week, with chances of for
showers.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The main concern in the short term will be the chance
for isolated showers this afternoon into the early evening, strong
winds and additional precipitation chances into Friday. A weak cold
front will push southeast from the northwest Sandhills and as it
moves southeast some weak low to mid level lift is expected to
develop a few isolated showers. Shower activity will be high based
with several locations showing an inverted v sounding during the
afternoon and early evening hours, thus could see the potential for
gusty, erratic winds, outside of the mean strong winds. Gusts in
excess of 50 mph could be associated with the showers. Dry lighting
is not anticipated, however an isolated lightning strike can`t be
ruled out. Shower activity will mostly be diurnally driven with
activity generally diminishing near sunset.
Winds continue to remain strong out of the west, then as the weak
cold front moves through winds will turn to the northwest. Sustained
winds will generally be around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
the rest of the afternoon into the early evening. The strongest
winds will be across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 83
where sustained winds will be closer to 25 to 30 mph this afternoon.
Did also add the mention of haze to the forecast to account
for the smoke particulates from the ongoing wildfires in
combination with the strong winds. Although there will be some
reductions in visibility, most of the smoke particulates should
remain aloft leading mostly to impacts with hazy skies than sfc
reduced visibilities, however there may be the potential for
some reduced visibilities with patchy blowing dusts. The
combination of strong gusty winds and dry conditions continue
to support critical fire weather conditions. For more
information regarding fire weather, please see the fire weather
section.
As for precipitation chances tonight, as another disturbance moves
in from the Black Hills into the northwest Sandhills could see some
light showers with a brief transition to a rain/snow mix as
temperatures dip below freezing across the northwest Sandhills.
Trace accumulation of snowfall may be possible near the Pine Ridge
area, however generally expect little to no snow accumulations
across the northwest Sandhills. As the SW trof moves across the area
will see additional shower activity. There is some weak instability
in the afternoon and evening and there may be the potential for
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Shower activity is
expected to continue into the Saturday. Uncertainty remains in how
much qpf will occur, but expect to at least see a better chance of
some measurable rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
There are 2 upper level streams remaining over CONUS heading into
the weekend. First, being the northern stream of a weakening upper
level low remaining mostly stationary over Saskatchewan. The
southern stream upper level trough trekking its way across the
southwestern United States, promoting southwesterly flow.
As this system creeps into our region by Saturday night/early Sunday
morning, a Colorado surface low develops. With there being plenty of
moisture being advected northward from the Gulf, this will promote
deeper moisture profiles across the region. Starting mid Sunday
morning precipitation develops across southwest Nebraska due to
southeast upslope flow, sharpening warm front, and strong mid-level
FGEN. These factors lasting through most Sunday and into part of
Monday, leads to the credence of widespread rainfall looking quite
promising. Currently, NBM 50th percentile has widespread
precipitation amounts of around a half inch, with 90th percentile
indicating the potential of slightly over an inch. Ensemble guidance
further supports this trend as LREF probability of accumulated
precipitation being greater than half an inch is 60 to 80 percent
across most of our region and greater than an inch being 40 to
60 percent chance north of Highway 2. In addition to the
potential of widespread rainfall, there remains a possibility of
some snow showers up to a half an inch. Specifically in
northern Sheridan county where low temperatures could drop to
just below freezing. While the system looks promising overall,
there still remains some uncertainty of the exact track and
speed, both of which influence the precipitation distribution
across our region.
High temperatures during this system (Saturday through Monday) are
forecasted to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, in the low to mid
50s. While winds appear to be remain light over the weekend, Monday
will potentially be a gusty day as the upper level trough passes
through our region. Expecting northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph,
gusting up to 45 mph in the central Sandhills into North-Central
Nebraska.
Heading into next week, cooler temperatures will return to the
region, following in the wake of the system. Highs will be near
normal for the season with lows being near or just below freezing.
Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be a slight warm up to the low to
mid 60s across the region. Multiple weak disturbances will be
possible throughout the week that could bring periodic chances for
precipitation but this will continued to be monitored for exact
trends.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty west
northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts, gusting up to 35 kts will remain
until the mid evening tonight. A southeast moving cold front will
start to move into north central NE by the early afternoon. This
front could push gusts up to 35 to 40 kts in the KVTN terminal, but
should move through quickly by the early evening. Additionally,
there is some hazy conditions present due ongoing fires but
shouldn`t create reduced visibility.
Some light showers capable of producing gusty, erratic winds, will
be possible in Northwest Nebraska this evening, but should stay west
of both terminals. Winds will start to diminish by midnight tonight
and shift north northeasterly at 5 to 10 kts. Mid layer clouds will
start invade the region late Friday morning accompanied by
light southwest winds.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Critical fire weather conditions will continue through early
evening across western and north central Nebraska. Expect gusty
northwesterly winds early this evening, shifting to the north by
late evening. Winds will then diminish further overnight. On
Friday, winds will shift to the south or southwest at 10 to 15
MPH. Afternoon RH Friday afternoon will range from 20 to 30
percent across the area. RH recovery tonight will range from 75 to
90 percent. RH recovery Friday night will range from 90 to 100
percent. There is a decent threat for light rain Friday night into
Saturday, with a secondary threat Saturday night into Sunday.
With the threat for precipitation this weekend and seasonal
temperatures next week, fire weather concerns appear limited.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez/MRS
AVIATION...MRS
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion