811
FXUS63 KLBF 081148
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
648 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the
  western Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska, with large hail
  and damaging winds possible.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
  Thursday afternoon/evening, favoring areas west of Highway
  83, with damaging winds and isolated severe hail the main
  concerns.

- Much warmer temperatures arrive this weekend ahead of
  anomalous heat setting in for early next week where daily
  highs in the upper 90s to low 100s appear probable for Sunday
  through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances late
this afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough moving across the
Dakotas into MN will push a cold front south through western NE with
a northeast to east wind in the afternoon. Highs not as hot, from
the mid 80s north central to the low 90s southwest. A few showers
and storms are possible in the northeast this morning into this
afternoon and possibly further south into Custer County this
afternoon. This is in closer proximity to the surface front. In the
higher terrain to our west, storms are expected to develop by mid
afternoon in an easterly upslope environment and move east into the
western Sandhills late afternoon and evening. Storms coverage looks
more scattered by this evening across the western Sandhills,
southwest and central NE. SBCAPEs by late afternoon will be highest
near 2500 J/kg across the southeast, and 1000-2000 across the west.
Deep layer shear will be around 35 to 40 kts. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat, with isolated large hail also possible.
A Slight Risk for severe storms south of a line from Hay Springs
through Bartlett. A secondary threat of locally heavy rainfall,
where storms are slow moving or train across the same areas. Could
see an MCS develop overnight, mainly across south central or
southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorm activity will diminish after
midnight as weak surface high pressure settles over the area and
winds become light and variable. Lows slightly cooler from upper 50s
northwest Sandhills to near 65 southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Thursday/Thursday Night...Modest high pressure will glance the area
early in the day with return southeasterly flow becoming established
by midday. How potential convection across Kansas impedes moisture
advection into the area remains unclear but overall thinking is
adequate recovery should be anticipated locally. Beneath persistent
anomalous warmth aloft, temperatures should manage to seasonable
levels. This paints widespread 80s across the area with a select few
approaching 90F. As the influence of a modest EML lingers over the
area, moderate instability should develop favoring the Panhandle
region where low-level moisture should be most impressive. MLCAPE
values are progged to climb to around 1500-2000 j/kg within nominal
deep layer shear as 0-6km BWD values reach 25-35 knots which will
support organized multicell to isolated supercell development.
Convection should develop off the higher terrain during peak heating
and track east within the zonal steering flow aloft. Storm motions
should be typical of early July, relatively slow. This should delay
most activity arriving into our western zones until the early
evening. With loss of daytime heating, boundary layer stabilization
will hinder eastward progression of activity and MLCIN increases
quickly. With lack of any appreciable supporting theta-e advection
off the surface, convection should wane quickly by mid/late evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of
5) for areas west of a Merriman to Paxton line with roughly a 100
mile Marginal Risk buffer to the east. This aligns with the thinking
that convection will wane quickly between Highway 61 and 83
corridors and casts doubt on meaningful rainfall chances east of the
latter. Main severe threats will consist of damaging wind gusts
though isolated severe hail will be possible west of Highway 61.
Parent shortwave trough will cross late in the evening with h5 low
forming over central and eastern Nebraska. Backside convergence may
support persistent light PoPs overnight but NBM probabilities paint
low potential for beneficial rainfall. Will keep Slight Chance and
Chance PoPs for now, generally limited to 40% or less.

Friday and beyond...heights begin to build by later in the day
Friday but timing of upper-level low and its departure is low
confidence at this time. Model blend maintains low-end PoPs through
the bulk of the day which is somewhat supported by various
deterministic solutions so see little reason to stray from these
significantly. Cooler temperatures appear possible but variations in
NWP output limits confidence in this. Attention quickly turns to the
looming heat wave arriving this weekend and persisting into next
week. Upper ridge will quickly amplify by early weekend with 595+
dam h5 heights overspreading Wyoming and much of western Nebraska by
Sunday. This aligns with NAEFS highlighting h2 and h5 heights
surpassing model climatologies for the time of year. Similarly,
temperatures aloft will be approaching climatological maximums,
particularly at h5 and h7. The warmer temperatures aloft combined
with the high pressure dome will quell any and all rainfall
potential in the extended period. As it stands now, expansive middle
to upper 90s are in the forecast for early next week with a few
locations approaching triple digits. Forecast highs at North Platte
and Valentine in particular would fall in the upper range of each
site`s respective climatology with values at Valentine likely to
exceed the 90th percentile in climatology each day Sunday through
Wednesday. As impressive as this warmth appears likely to be, we
should fall short of record highs. Nevertheless, given the
anticipated magnitude of heat over consecutive days with little
relief overnight (heat indices struggling to fall be 70F at times),
concern is high for vulnerable folks to prolonged heat. Will need to
closely monitor day-to-day trends in forecast highs as headlines may
be necessary to account for this. Anomalous upper ridging appears
likely to continue over the Central Plains through much of next week
with ridge breakdown appearing likely by Thursday. This may break
the heat and allow appreciable rainfall chances to return though
precise details are uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are largely expected through the forecast period.
A brief period of low-stratus may envelope KVTN and introduce
some IFR/LIFR conditions, but this should be limited to an hour
or so.

Thereafter, expecting only passing mid to high level clouds with
general northeasterly winds remaining fairly modest. Later
today, thunderstorms should develop out west and introduce
thicker high level clouds. Only KLBF will see the potential for -TSRA
but this remains low confidence so continue to cover with a
PROB30. Signals again point to at least some IFR conditions in
our north late tonight so did include a mention at KVTN but this
should remain north of LBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion