632
FXUS63 KLBF 122047
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler than seasonal highs are expected through the end of
  the week. This may also usher in wind chills in the low to mid
  30s across most of the region each morning.

- Confidence remains relatively high for rain chances Wednesday
  and Wednesday night across the region.

- Potential for the first frost of the season increases late
  week, especially Friday night into Saturday morning, when
  widespread lows in the lower 30s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The main cold front has pushed through southern Nebraska this
afternoon, bringing mostly northerly winds in its wake. Stratus was
slow to erode this morning across northern Nebraska into the
Sandhills, which in combination with the cold front, has helped
limit high temperatures this afternoon. Further south, across
portions of southwest Nebraska where cloud cover was negligible,
temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s. This evening, as high
pressure develops across the northern Plains, a second push of cold
air is expected to track into the region.

As this second push of cooler air occurs, expecting a layer of
stratus to develop across the region, bringing mostly overcast
skies. As cooler air pools across the region, expect lows mostly to
drop into the mid to lower 40s tonight, though some locations across
northern Nebraska, especially along Pine Ridge, may drop into the
mid to upper 30s. In addition to the cooler air and cloudy skies,
expect sustained winds out of the northeast overnight around 5 to 10
mph. If these winds remain sustained overnight, we can expect to see
wind chills in the 30s across most of the region, especially in the
predawn hours and lasting into mid morning. This will certainly feel
cooler than the overnight lows we have been experiencing recently,
which have remained mostly above seasonal average. In fact, our
average lows should be in the mid 30s this time of year, but we have
remained mostly in the 50s to upper 40s. Those with plants and
vegetation sensitive to the cold may want to take precautions
tonight. Additionally, with the cooler temperatures and wind chills
in the early morning hours, those traveling to work or school may
want to bring out the warmer clothing.

Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy on Tuesday, limiting
daytime heating across most of the region. Highs are mostly expected
to remain in the 50s, though some locations across southwest
Nebraska may be able to climb into the lower 60s. Skies are expected
to clear by the evening, which will allow for another night of
radiational cooling across the region. With dewpoints mostly
remaining in the 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night, expect lows will
mostly follow suit. Of note, will be keeping a close eye on areas
across northwest Nebraska again, which may get close to freezing
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This may bring a
localized risk for frost early Wednesday morning, mostly for areas
along and north of Highway 20 from Hay Springs to Merriman. As with
tonight, sustained winds may bring cooler wind chills across the
region, with wind chills in the lower 30s expected early Wednesday
morning, potentially dropping into the upper 20s across portions of
the Sandhills.

By Wednesday, the upper level trough is expected to be over the Four
Corners region, with an upper level jet maximum located over western
Kansas and eastern Colorado. This should place most of western
Nebraska in a favorable location for divergence aloft, favoring a
deepening surface low across eastern Wyoming. A plume of Pacific
moisture is expected to arrive with this trough, which should favor
rain chances Wednesday into Wednesday night across most of western
and north central Nebraska. Deterministic guidance has remained very
consistent with this pattern, which does bolster confidence in the
possibility for rainfall. Ensemble guidance also remains fairly
optimistic on precipitation chances, bringing a 70 to 90+ percent
chance of exceeding one tenth of an inch across most of the region.
However, the European ensemble remains slightly more optimistic,
indicating a 60 percent chance of portions of the area exceeding
half an inch. Given the expected synoptic set up, do believe that
the heightened rainfall chances are warranted Wednesday and
especially Wednesday night. However, still have some uncertainty in
the amount of precipitation across the region. For now, thinking the
most likely scenario is somewhere between one quarter to one half
inch for most areas, though there may be some potential for locally
higher amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

As the upper level low slowly tracks east on Thursday, may see some
lingering showers through the morning into the early afternoon. Can
not completely rule out a rumble of thunder or two, but for now, any
severe weather risk appears very low. However, with the system
tracking east, expecting wind conditions across most of the region
on Thursday, with northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, potentially
gusting 40 to 45 mph. As the low tracks east, expecting mostly
cloudy skies throughout the day, again limiting our ability to
achieve stronger daytime heating. Expecting highs will mostly remain
in the 50s across the region on Thursday. For reference, our typical
highs for mid October are around 65 to 66 degrees. The bigger
temperature concerns arrive Thursday night, as mush cooler air
tracks across portions of western Nebraska. The latest forecast
brings lows around freezing across most of Sheridan County, as well
as portions of western Cherry, northern Garden, and northwest Grant
counties. Though there is a chance for localized frost Wednesday
night, this push of colder air may bring a more widespread chance
for a frost across northwest Nebraska into the western Sandhills.
With winds remaining through the night, also expecting a cold start
on Friday morning, with wind chills in the 20s across most of the
region. Interestingly enough, this cold push is actually quite
typical for mid October, as our typical lows are around 33 to 35
degrees.

Similar conditions are expected through the day on Friday, with
highs mostly remaining in the 50s across the region. However, by
Friday night, a high pressure system tracks south across the
northern Plains, bringing even cooler temperatures across most of
the region, with widespread lows in the low to mid 30s. With lows
dropping near freezing across most of the region, this increases our
threat for a more widespread frost, potentially bringing the first
frost of the season across most of western and north central
Nebraska. As this high pressure system tracks south, expecting some
increased winds along a tight pressure gradient, which will bring an
even nastier bite to the cold temperatures. If these conditions come
to fruition, we may see wind chill values in the low 20s across most
of the region, especially areas north of Interstate 80, early
Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, however, upper level
ridging is expected to begin building across the region again. This
should help return mostly seasonal temperatures on Saturday, with
highs climbing into the 60s. In fact, by Sunday, we may be seeing
highs returning to the low to mid 70s again, with lows in the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Stratus remains slow to erode across north central Nebraska this
afternoon. However, satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the
stratus deck, so may see some brief VFR conditions this afternoon
before stratus rebuilds later this evening. Further south, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon, until the second
wave of stratus arrives tonight. A reinforcing push of cold air
arrives later this evening, along with the status deck. This will
also bring gusty northeasterly winds this evening, with pockets of
gusts through the night. Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR
across the region. With winds expected to remain sustained through
the night, expecting that this will help limit fog development
overnight. However, the stratus deck is expected to remain in place
through at least the end of the effective TAF period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion