FXUS63 KLBF 141734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

The cold front is advancing southeast through southern South
Dakota. Based on up stream observations, have increased winds
some as the front crosses the area. Gusts up to 40 mph could
occur, mainly across northern Nebraska this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

A potent shortwave trough will cross the Northern Plains today and
force a cold front southward through the area. Latest short term
model guidance has the front clearing our forecast area of western
and north central Nebraska by around 2:00 PM CDT. Have a slight
chance for a thunderstorm in the far southeast sections of the area
from the Ewing/Bartlett area back southwest into eastern Custer
county early this afternoon as the front passes, but chances are
slim as most if not all of the storm development should be east of
our area near the advancing cold front later this afternoon.
Otherwise a period of gusty north to northwest winds are expected
late this morning into early this afternoon, especially across
northern Nebraska. This area will experience the strongest 3 hour
pressure rises (about 5 mb) and H85 winds around 30 kts. Expecting
gusts to around 35 mph or so at the surface.

Surface high pressure quickly builds in tonight. Drier air, clear
skies and light winds will allow for good radiational cooling, and
expect lows in the 50s most area.

Return low-level southerly flow develops Saturday as surface high
pressure moves east of the area. Mid-level warm air advection also
increases, and have a slight chance for showers and T-Storms during
the afternoon across southwest Nebraska in zone of decent isentropic

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Upper level high pressure expands and strengthens across the western
CONUS later this weekend and into the upcoming week. The center will
remain anchored around UTAH much of the week with north to northwest
flow aloft across our region on the eastern periphery of the high.
No clear signal of any organized disturbance within the flow, but
cannot rule out a stray shower or storm as any weak disturbance
could help provide a focus for development. Temperatures should
average near or slightly above normal (highs 85 to 90) through much
of the week. Despite the strong upper level high to our west, there
is currently no indication of any extreme heat building eastward
into our region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest through the
afternoon, then begin to diminish in the evening. Winds will shift
back to the east southeast overnight and remain light.




LONG TERM...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion