000
FXUS63 KLBF 300903
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
303 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Mostly cloudy to overcast skies through tomorrow evening impact
temperatures and potential aurora viewing.

-A weak disturbance brings potential for flurries on Saturday,
though no accumulations are expected at this time.

-A strong subtropical jet ridge brings well above average
 temperatures next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Water vapor satellite imagery and 500 mb analysis this morning shows
a mostly zonal flow over the eastern United States. The polar jet
has a low amplitude ridge, with the ridge axis over central
Washington. The subtropical jet has a fairly robust trough over the
desert southwest, with the trough axis along the Arizona-New Mexico
border. A surface low in southwestern Minnesota has an associated
cold front through eastern Nebraska, where it meets a secondary low
over Grand Island. The low over Grand Island has a cold front that
trails to the southwest over western Kansas into southeast Colorado.
Behind the cold front, high pressure is building in over the
Nebraska Panhandle. To the south, a low pressure system is building
up over the Oklahoma Panhandle in association with the subtropical
jet trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Overall, the weather pattern remains calm over western and north
central Nebraska in the short term. Given the location of the high
and low pressure systems and relatively weak pressure gradient
across Nebraska, we may see a few gusts up to 25 miles per hour out
of the north across north central Nebraska this afternoon. With the
passing of the cold front last night, temperatures will struggle to
climb into the mid 30s across most of the region. Temperatures will
also be impacted by increasing cloudiness throughout the day and the
night. Have trended overnight low temperatures up tomorrow night, as
we will have extensive cloud cover and not seeing any sources of
cold air advection to offset the trapped radiation. May need to
trend overnight lower higher again, given the extent of the cloud
cover and latest model trends catching on to this.

Unfortunately, cloud cover is likely to hamper potential aurora
spotting tomorrow evening. Peak timing for the aurora from the Space
Weather Prediction Center forecast lines up with mostly cloudy to
overcast conditions over western and north central Nebraska.

Another important item in the short term is the low currently over
the Oklahoma Panhandle. Majority of the latest model runs and
ensemble data have this system moving well south of our CWA, and
causing wintry precipitation over far southeastern Nebraska. Some
model guidance earlier today suggested the slightest possibility
(10% chance) of precipitation across south central Nebraska
overnight Friday. However, have higher confidence in the latest
guidance and ensembles keeping precipitation out of western and
north central Nebraska through tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Saturday afternoon, the subtropical jet shifts further north,
bringing a shortwave along the Colorado-Kansas border. In response,
a weak disturbance moves across South Dakota, as well as another low
pressure over northern Oklahoma. Current guidance suggests a surface
trough moving through western Nebraska, with a warm front through
south central Kansas. This may cause a few flurries across
southwestern and north central Nebraska, however, not seeing
anything accumulation wise at this time. Nonetheless, will continue
to monitor this set up closely, and provide updates as needed.

The subtropical jet stream will continue to track to the east, and
sets up a high amplitude ridge over the region on Monday. Guidance
suggests the ridge will be present over our region for the work
week, which will bring calm weather and well above average
temperatures. In fact, we could even see late week temperatures into
the 60s. Also, given the strength of the ridge and surface high
pressure, it is unlikely we receive any precipitation next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday as mostly clear skies
continue across north central Nebraska. The only major concern will
be some stronger winds as a weak frontal system pushes through.
Northerly winds gusting up to 20 knots are possible by late morning
and into the afternoon across southern Nebraska impacting KLBF
briefly.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Brown/Richie
SHORT TERM...Brown/Richie
LONG TERM...Brown/Richie
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion