301
FXUS63 KLBF 170556
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1156 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow and blowing snow is expected across northeastern areas today
into tonight.
- Bitter cold conditions are expected tonight generally along and
north of highway 92.
- Very windy conditions will persist through the weekend.
- Near Critical fire weather conditions are likely, with
critical fire weather conditions possible across far
southwestern Nebraska Saturday afternoon.
- Temperatures will be highly variable Monday through Friday
next week.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
H5 analysis this morning had a highly amplified pattern
across the CONUS and Canada. High pressure was anchored just off the
west coast of Oregon. A high amplitude ridge extended north of this
feature into eastern Alaska and the Yukon. Downstream of this
feature a tandem of lows were noted. One over northern Quebec and a
second over western Ontario. From these two features, a longwave
trough of low pressure extended south to the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico. On the periphery of the Ontario low, two distinct strong
shortwaves were noted. The first over northeastern Iowa and a second
over southwestern Manitoba. At the surface, low pressure was located
roughly over western portions of the UP of Michigan. A cold front
extended south of this feature into Illinois and southeastern
Missouri. A second arctic cold front extended southwest from the low
into southern Nebraska, then northwest into western portions of
South Dakota. Very windy conditions were present across the area with
snow showers present across portions of north central Nebraska and
the eastern Nebraska Sandhills. Wind gusts as of 2 PM CST were as
high as 60 MPH at Ogallala and 61 MPH at Grant. Temperatures as of 2
PM CST ranged from 21 degrees at O`Neill to 35 degrees at Imperial.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
High winds will continue to be a concern across the area
tonight. The latest high res guidance and deterministic solns
indicate a gradual decreasing of wind gust speeds commencing
around 00z Saturday. This aligns pretty well with the latest
high wind warning which expires at 00z Saturday. Thanks to an
arctic front and strong cold air advection overnight, winds will
remain gusty into the overnight with gusts speeds decreasing to
the 30 to 40 MPH range overnight. With the degree of winds and
overnight lows ranging from around zero over northern Nebraska
to 5 to 10 degrees along and south of Interstate 80, wind chills
will reach 10 to 25 below zero across the area by Saturday
morning. This will necessitate a cold advisory for locations
generally north of highway 91 and 2 tonight. Gusty winds will
continue through the first half of Saturday, before diminishing
somewhat Saturday afternoon. This is in response to surface high
pressure building into northern, then central Nebraska Saturday
afternoon. For a brief period Saturday afternoon, we have
minimum RH`s around 15 percent with wind gusts to 25 MPH over
far southwestern Nebraska. After collaborating with our
neighbors to the south and west, will probably end up issuing a
RFW for far SW Nebraska for Saturday afternoon. Surface high
pressure will quickly build south of the area early Saturday
evening, shifting winds to the west overnight and forcing a warm
front into western portions of the forecast area. Early Sunday,
a cold front will then pass through the forecast area. Strong
winds will accompany passage of this frontal boundary. FWIW, the
latest NBM ensemble probabilities have a better than 60% chance
of 50+ MPH winds Sunday morning over portions of north central,
central and far western Nebraska. There is some support for
even stronger winds Sunday morning with the latest NAM soln.
ATTM, not planning any wind headlines for Saturday night/Sunday,
but will mention the threat in the HWO and social media with
this afternoon`s package.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
A highly amplified pattern will continue across the CONUS
through Monday with Ridging extending up the west coast and a
broad trough of low pressure impacting the eastern 3/4ths of the
United States. Toward the middle of the week, ridging de-
amplifies along the west coast, allowing the arctic air mass to
retreat north into the upper Midwest and northern tier of
states. This will result in a brief warmup on Tuesday across the
forecast area with readings reaching the 50s in the west and
southwest. The warmup will be short-lived however as another
shot of arctic air drops south from central Canada into the
plains and upper midwest. Highs after Tuesday, will be well
below normal with readings mainly in the 20s and 30s across the
area. For the most part, dry conditions are expected next week.
However there is some deterministic model data, indicating a
threat for light snow late next week into next weekend. So far,
the latest NBM only has some meager slight chance pops across
the north for Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Lingering light snow continues across north central Nebraska
with impacts probable at VTN. Have included a brief period of
IFR conditions with active and blowing snow but will monitor
trends to see if impacts fall short of this magnitude.
Otherwise, expecting low stratus to envelope much of western
Nebraska. Conditions should improve by late morning Saturday
with a return to VFR conditions expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are likely Saturday afternoon
over zone 210. Winds will be gusty Saturday and with very dry
air in place (surface dew points of -10 to -15F) over western
Nebraska, minimum RH will fall off to around 15 percent Saturday
afternoon. Have issued a Red Flag Warning for zone 210 from 11
AM to 5 PM MST.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ Saturday for
NEZ004>010-023>029-094.
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
MST/ Saturday for NEZ204-210.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
NEZ005>010-026>029-038.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion