312
FXUS63 KLBF 120805
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
305 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions are likely today in fire zone 204
and a red flag warning is in effect.
- Winds will be gusty from the south today and gusty from the north
on Saturday
- Cooler temperatures are expected behind a strong cold front Saturday
and Sunday, with highs mainly in the upper 60s and 70s.
- A warming trend returns by midweek, with highs climbing back
into the 80s and lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Dry conditions continue through today as high pressure slowly slides
to the east by late afternoon. Some marginal instability across
portions of central and eastern Nebraska will result in an
environment favorable for some nighttime convection on Friday night.
While not expecting severe storms, some isolated showers or
thunderstorms could develop east of US-83 after Midnight and will be
capable of producing some hail and stronger winds. Any showers and
storms will push east of the region by sunrise Saturday morning.
Dry conditions will then persist through Saturday night as zonal
flow sets up over the central US and high pressure gradually returns
to the region. Cold air advection behind the departing trough the
previous night will bring a return to 850 mb temperatures in the 9
to 15 C range into north central Nebraska. This will keep highs on
the cooler side of guidance (5 to 10 degrees below normal) with
forecasted temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the Pine Ridge
to the upper 70s south of I-80. A few locations across far southwest
Nebraska may rise into the low 80s on Saturday, but not expecting
most locations to rise out of the 70s on Saturday.
Continued CAA into the region into Saturday night will keep
overnight lows nearly 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for this
time of year. Currently expecting temperatures to drop into the low
to mid 40s Saturday night for most location, with the Pine Ridge
potentially dropping into the upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Persistent low pressure over Ontario and southern portions of
Hudson Bay, will allow northwesterly flow aloft to persist for
most of next week. With moisture locked off to the south of the
forecast area, precipitation chances Sunday through Thursday
look downright abysmal at best. The only minor "threat" for
precipitation appears on Wednesday/Wednesday night over
northeastern areas. This is in association with a strong
shortwave trough which rotates on the southwestern periphery of
the main low over Ontario. The latest NBM ensembles only paint a
20% chance for QPF>0.01" Wednesday/Wednesday night over the
northeastern forecast area so pops are limited to slight chances
at best. The NBM is in line with the latest GEFS ensemble
forecast which only has a 10 to 20 % chance of QPF>0.01" ending
Thursday morning. The EC ensembles are a little more
"optimistic" on its precipitation chances Wednesday night,
noting a 20 to 30% chance of QPF>0.01". That being said, feel
the NBM forecast is on track keeping pops at slight chances for
WEdnesday/Wednesday night. Beyond Thursday, there are some hints
in the mid range deterministic solutions of more of a zonal low
amplitude pattern commencing across the central CONUS. With
this shift, low level moisture will have a better chance of
working north into the forecast area bringing an increased
threat for precipitation Friday and beyond next week. As for
temperatures, readings will begin to climb back into the 80s and
lower 90s Tuesday. ATTM, the warmest day in the extended
appears to be Wednesday in advance of a backdoor cold front and
shortwave Wednesday night (mentioned above). With the dry and
warmer conditions expected next week, fire weather concerns will
increase and will need to be monitored.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Over the next 24 hours, expect mainly clear skies with a few
high clouds around 25000 FT AGL possible. Southerly winds will
increase by mid morning Friday, gusting up to 30 KTS at both
terminals during the afternoon hours. Winds will remain
southerly at the KLBF terminal through the evening hours Friday.
At the KVTN terminal winds will shift to the southwest, west,
then northwest Friday evening as a cold front passes through
northern Nebraska. This feature is forecast to approach the KLBF
terminal after the forecast period and will pass through the
KLBF terminal around 09z Saturday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026
Gusty southwesterly and westerly winds are likely later this
morning into the afternoon hours. With highs reaching around 90
this afternoon and minimum RH reaching 10 to 20 percent across
the area, near critical or critical fire weather conditions
appear likely today generally west of highway 83. Over zone 204
recent contact with fire partners indicates fuels are still
ready to burn under ideal conditions. In zone 204 this
afternoon, minimum RH will reach 10 to 15 percent with frequent
afternoon wind gusts between 35 and 45 MPH. A red flag warning
is in effect this afternoon for fire zone 204 from 10 AM to 6 PM
MDT. A cold front will pass through western and north central
Nebraska tonight, bringing cooler temperatures for the weekend.
Highs Saturday will be in the 70s with upper 60s to lower 70s
for Sunday. This will lead to minimum RH of 25 to 35 percent
both days alleviating fire weather concerns this weekend.
Temperatures will rise back into the 80s and 90s for Tuesday
through Thursday leading to increased fire weather concerns
across the forecast area. Precipitation chances over the next 7
days appear limited across the area.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
evening for NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion