381
FXUS63 KLBF 101720
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions continue today and tomorrow, with highs in the
  middle to upper 90s along and west of HWY 83. Scattered
  thunderstorms are also possible through tomorrow night, with a
  few strong to severe storms both Monday and Tuesday.

- Rain/thunderstorm increase Wednesday into at least the first of
  the coming weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall could occur
  during this timeframe.

- Near normal highs in the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s
  Wednesday will cool back considerably to the 70s Thursday
  through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Currently, thunderstorms continue to exit far southwest Nebraska,
with the associated anvil slowly exiting much of the Sandhills and
central Nebraska. Temperatures largely remain in the 70s, along with
light easterly winds. Patchy fog has developed across northern
Nebraska, and is expected to overspread much of the Sandhills and
central Nebraska through sunrise.

For today, expect a similar day to yesterday with highs again
ranging from the upper 90s west of HWY 83 to the upper 80s to near
90 east of HWY 83. Guidance has struggled with respect to surface
dewpoints the last few days, and does cast some doubt with respect
to how high heat index values climb this afternoon. In fact, areas
south of I-80 locally approached heat index values of 100F this
afternoon. Still believe any threat for heat index values remains
highly localized today, and preclude any Heat Advisory headlines at
this time. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will again be
possible this afternoon, again along a weak surface trough
positioned across the Panhandle. With dewpoints again potentially as
high as the upper 60s to low 70s, ample instability will exist
across much of the area. The strong flow aloft will leads to strong
deep layer shear, with long and largely straight hodographs
indicated in forecast soundings. Should storms form along the
surface trough, updrafts could become supercellular at least
initially, with at threat for large hail. Recent high-res guidance
suggests a threat for eventual clustering which could lead to an
increasing threat for damaging winds. Some uncertainty does linger
with the coverage and intensity of any storms today, with the pesky
warm air aloft keeping lingering CIN in place through much of the
afternoon and evening hours. This again could lead to storms
struggling unless a more robust cold pool can be generated by
clustering storms. Any storms are expected to exit the area by
Midnight, and largely dry conditions are expected overnight. The
lone exception would be across north central Nebraska where a low
level jet may lead to scattered elevated storms.

The warm conditions hang around one more day for Tuesday, with highs
again in the upper 90s along and west of HWY 83. Again strong to
severe storms will be possible across portions of western Nebraska
as storms form along the high terrain out west and move east.
Damaging winds look to be the main concern should they survive as
they approach the HWY 61 corridor late evening. A second thread for
strong to severe storms may develop across northern Nebraska, as
storms could approach from South Dakota. This of course remains low
confidence, though strong deep layer shear does suggest updrafts may
organize into supercells and eventually clusters or a line with
time. Mesoscale details will continue to be monitored with respect
to the severe threat on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Persistent upper level ridging will flatten some and translate
eastward from the southern plains and more into the southeast part
of the U.S. by Saturday into Sunday. Ensemble guidance continues to
suggests stronger winds aloft will develop southward from the
northern plains as the ridge flattens. A disturbance embedded within
the flow aloft Wednesday afternoon...will likely bring a round of
stronger and more widespread thunderstorm development across western
Nebraska. These will then push eastward across north central into
central Nebraska Wednesday night.

ENS/GEFS mean PWAT values will be on the increase Wednesday night
though into the weekend as monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft
flows northward then turns eastward across the region on the
northern edge of the upper high anchored to our southeast. Values
greater than 1.6" appear likely which would be nearing or exceeding
the 90th percentile. As several waves aloft cross the area, several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday into at
least the first of the weekend. Will have to monitor the potential
for some localized heavy rainfall with the abundance of atmospheric
moisture that will be in place.

A considerable cool down is also expected Thursday into the weekend.
This is primarily due to abundant cloud cover and easterly low-level
flow. But by Sunday, the low-levels begin to dry out some as Canadian
high pressure settles southward into the plains. Temperatures are
expected to be much below normal during this timeframe, with highs
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the afternoon and
evening across western and north central Nebraska. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon, tracking
east this evening, which may bring localized aviation impacts, but
are expected to miss both KLBF and KVTN. Overnight, ample low level
moisture and light winds may allow for additional fog development
across north central Nebraska and the Sandhills, potentially
bringing impacts to local terminals. However, confidence in the
spread of fog and visibility impacts is on the lower side at this
time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion