000
FXUS63 KLBF 211251 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
751 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

It looks like the atmosphere is stabilizing across swrn Nebraska.
A forecast update is in place which lowers the rain chances this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Deep moisture is in place with precipitable water running 1.50-1.75
inches this morning. The moisture is forecast to slowly diminish to
around 1.20 inches by Thursday morning. Winds aloft are 10-30kts in
the 500mb-300mb layer signaling heavy rain potential. A 300mb
upper level disturbance across the nrn rockies moves very slowly
east today. The ongoing squall line across wrn Nebraska will move
east this morning and intersect the quasi-stationary thunderstorm
complex across cntl Nebraska producing a prolonged period of rain
heavy at times this morning. This rain should exit ncntl Nebraska
by 18z. Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
should continue this afternoon and gradually diminish this evening
and overnight. The best rainfall will occur this morning before
18z.

The thunderstorm forecast uses the model blend plus the HREF,
NAMnest, RAP and HRRR models which places the heaviest rainfall
across Custer county coincident with the thunderstorms underway in
that area at 06z.

The temperature forecast uses the guidance blend plus bias
correction for highs in the 70s to around 80 today and Thursday. Sfc
dew points will remain in the 60s today and drop into the 50s
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Cool temperatures are in place through Friday; the result of
Canadian high pressure across the Midwest. A slight warming trend
develop Saturday through Monday with Sunday the warmest day. H700mb
temperatures rise to around 12C during this time supporting highs in
the 80s.

Rain chances are in the forecast nearly daily. The models appear to
be maintaining sufficient moisture with sfc dew points in the 60s
through Sunday. Sfc high pressure dropping through the upper Midwest
this week will produce southerly winds at the h850mb level across
Nebraska. This should pull moisture back west which would support
diurnal storm development across the High Plains. This storm
activity would move into wrn and ncntl Nebraska.

Winds aloft at h500mb are fairly weak through Saturday with 10 to 20
kts indicated. Thereafter, heights lower and speeds increase to 30
to 50 kts. Given the weak winds aloft and cool temperatures, the
potential for strong or severe thunderstorm development is low until
Sunday. The potential for storm development Sunday and beyond is
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will be the main aviation story over the
next day. Rain showers and embedded weak thunderstorms will continue
throughout the day Wednesday. Some light patchy fog is also
possible on Wednesday as the lower atmosphere becomes saturated.
Another chance of thunderstorms is possible on Wednesday night.
Confidence in timing and location of impact is too low to put
anything more than a mention here at this time.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion