770
FXUS63 KLBF 142308
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
608 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a minor threat for showers and thunderstorms mainly
  this evening over far southwestern into portions of central
  Nebraska. There is a marginal (Level 1 of 5) threat for severe
  storms south of a line from Maywood, to Ansley to Bartlett.
  Gusty winds are the main severe threat.

- There will be periodic chances for precipitation over the next 7
  days. ATTM the best chances are Thursday night into Friday.

- Temperatures will be seasonal this week with daily highs in
  the 70s. Some 80s are possible on Friday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Looking at the H5 pattern this morning, a low amplitude ridge
extended from central Iowa, north into northern Minnesota and
north along the Manitoba/Ontario border. East of this feature, a
broad trough of low pressure extended from eastern Quebec south
into New England. West of the ridge, closed low pressure was
present over northwestern Manitoba and southern Alberta. A
trough extended south of this feature to Salt Lake City UT.
Southwest of this trough, a shortwave was noted over northern
California. The closed low over northwestern Montana, had
tracked quickly east this morning and as of early afternoon,
this feature was located between Glasgow and Havre Montana per
satellite imagery. At the surface this afternoon...low pressure
was located over southern South Dakota. A cold front extended
north of this feature to a secondary low over southwestern North
Dakota. South of the front a surface trough extended south of
the South Dakota low into west central Nebraska. Further south a
third boundary extended from west central Kansas into east
central Nebraska. Over the last 15 minutes, convective clouds
have developed along this boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Low end precipitation chances this evening is the main forecast
challenge. The cold front, mentioned above in the synopsis,
will track into northern half of Nebraska by 00z. Two areas of
convection are expected to initiate this evening. The first will
be over northwestern Kansas into south central and east central
Nebraska. This well in advance of the cold front and along a
pre frontal boundary (mainly moisture boundary). The second will
be just ahead of the cold front over northeastern Colorado into
far SW Nebraska. The second area will have the best chances of
delivering precipitation to southern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area this evening. As for the severe threat, the
latest SWODY1 has a marginal risk from east of a line from
Maywood, to Ansley, to Bartlett. Looking at the HRRR this
morning, especially the 15z run, there is a strong wind signal
with the second area of convection over far SW Nebraska this
evening. With decreased low level moisture north of the first
pre-frontal boundary, and gusty west, then northwesterly winds
with the front, gusty winds with this area of convection are
plausible. Even though this area is not currently outlooked,
will advise the oncoming shift to pay particular attention to a
corridor from SW Nebraska into the eastern Sandhills for the
potential for severe storms (strong winds) this evening.
Overnight, the threat for showers will continue in southeastern
areas behind the front as mid level frontogenesis trails the
surface front. Surface high pressure will nose into northern,
then central Nebraska during the day on Tuesday. With the front
well south of the FA and high pressure anchored over central
Nebraska, dry conditions are expected. Highs will struggle to
get out of the lower 70s thanks to light northeasterly and
northerly winds. High pressure will then build east of the
forecast area Tuesday night. Winds will shift to the south and
southeast overnight allowing moisture to surge north into
southern, then central Nebraska. The latest NAM12 soln does
advect a decent amount of moisture into SW and southern Nebraska
overnight. Was concerned initially about fog potential
Wednesday morning, however am not seeing much support for this
with the latest SREF fog ensemble probabilities. That being
said, will forgo fog mention with this forecast package. With
the northward surge in moisture the latest NBM forecast does
increase precipitation chances overnight, particularly in the
central, east and north. With the best deep layer moisture
locked in over Kansas, and drier mid level air present over
southern Nebraska, it appears drizzle will be the main mode of
precipitation Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The frontal boundary, anchored over northern Kansas will lift
north as a warm front Wednesday into southern Nebraska. By
afternoon, a lead shortwave will initiate convection along the
front range of Colorado. Southwesterly winds aloft will lift
this activity into the forecast area Wednesday evening into the
overnight hours. The front will remain stalled across central
and southern Nebraska Thursday with a secondary shortwave
leading to convective development over the central Rockies. Once
again, southwesterly flow aloft will carry activity into the
area Thursday night into Friday morning. Beyond Friday, there
will be continued threat for showers and thunderstorms into the
weekend as low pressure aloft slowly lifts across the northern
Rockies. After highs in the 80s Friday, temperatures will be
seasonal this weekend with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions the next 24 hours at the KLBF and KVTN terminals.
A cold front has currently moved through most of north central
Nebraska, and will move through southwest Nebraska by late
evening. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across southwest and central Nebraska late this evening and
overnight. At this time, coverage looks isolated to widely
scattered. Mentioned VCSH at KLBF from 04Z to 08Z. A northeast
wind behind the front will increase to 04013G24KT 08Z to 13Z.
Winds will diminish during the morning to AOB 10KT in the
afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion