063
FXUS63 KLBF 031133
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
633 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across western
Nebraska. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms expected
to arrive Monday evening, lasting overnight.
- A few hours of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
will be possible Monday afternoon, prior to expected showers and
thunderstorms. Concerns are largely driven by the gusty winds,
though warmer temperatures and lower humidity also contribute.
- Moderate confidence in showers and isolated thunderstorms through
Wednesday, although the severe potential remains uncertain at this
time.
- Moderate confidence dry and warm conditions for the end of the
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026
A cold front is tracking across western Nebraska overnight and is
expected to be into Kansas by daybreak. Along the front range of the
Rockies, a stationary frontal boundary is expected to lag behind the
cold front. Throughout the morning, slight instability builds aloft
across northern Nebraska into South Dakota, with the stationary
front being a lifting mechanism for elevated showers and
thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to track
south across portions of western and northern Nebraska. However, low
levels in the environment remain relatively dry, which should limit
precipitation potential. In fact, precipitation this afternoon and
evening is expected to remain generally under one tenth of an inch,
with a few spots across northern Nebraska receiving a few hundredths
at best. As such, will need to keep an eye on lightning, especially
in places where recent precipitation amounts were lower, as
lightning may still pose a threat for fire starts.
Attention turns to Monday, which has potential to be a busy weather
day across western Nebraska. Another cold front is expected to track
south across the Dakotas, with stronger winds expected to be along
and behind this front. Sustained northerly winds of 20 to 25 mph are
expected with the front, with gusts up to 35 mph Monday afternoon.
To the south of the front, temperatures are expected to warm into
the upper 70s to lower 80s, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s
north of the front. The cooler temperatures are expected to keep
afternoon humidity values generally around 25 to 35 percent, with
values in the 20 to 25 percent range associated with the warmer
temperatures to the south. At this time, little overlap is expected
between the lowest humidity values and gustiest winds. However, the
stronger winds are expected to precede any precipitation and will be
occurring while temperatures rise and humidity falls. This does keep
a brief window in the afternoon where elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will be possible, largely driven by the gusty
winds, and aided by warmer temperatures and lowering humidity.
Concern is likely to be highest across the Panhandle and western
Sandhills into southwest Nebraska.
As mentioned above, the fire weather concerns are expected to
precede precipitation chances. As the cold front tracks into the
region, expect precipitation chances to steadily increase from the
mid afternoon to overnight hours. With the front`s initial surge,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
western Nebraska during the afternoon hours. However, there is still
some uncertainty in the initial timing of these storms, which
complicates the duration of fire weather concerns. Do believe that
dry lightning concerns will be lower on Monday, as storms are
expected to bring higher precipitation totals, but again, timing
remains more uncertain. By the evening into the overnight hours,
expecting that the front eventually slows across the southern
Sandhills into southwest Nebraska, increasing precipitation
potential. Confidence in precipitation across southwest Nebraska
continues to increase, as ensembles continue to highlight a 90 to
100 percent chance of measureable precipitation along and south of
Interstate 80. In fact, confidence is beginning to increase in
seeing amounts over one tenth of an inch, especially in the European
ensemble solutions. Rain showers are expected to continue on and off
through the night across most of western and north central Nebraska
into the Tuesday morning commute.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026
Scattered rain showers and embedded thunderstorm potential will
continue Tuesday through Wednesday as the frontal boundary stalls
out across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Limited
instability should keep the severe threat low for both Tuesday and
Wednesday. However, cannot rule out a stronger storm or two if it
can take advantage of some of the less overworked environment to the
north. Rain showers combined with cloudy conditions will keep
temperatures on the cooler side with highs remaining in the upper
40s to mid 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will drop into the
upper 20s to low 30s. These colder overnight lows will even allow
for the potential of a rain/snow mix for portions of the higher
terrain of the Pine Ridge. Little to no accumulations are expected.
High pressure and strong upper level ridging build back into the
region on Wednesday night lasting through the end of the week. This
will not only bring another brief period of dry conditions, but also
a return to warmer temperatures. Highs return into the 70s and low
80s by Friday.
Outside of some isolated rain and thunderstorm chances across
northern Nebraska and the Sandhills on Thursday night, the next
potential for widespread thunderstorms arrives on the weekend. An
upper level trough will dig south across the Rockies allowing for a
low pressure system to develop across the central Plains. Severe
risk is uncertain at this time, but will continue to monitor this
developing system over the next few days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026
VFR aviation conditions are expected through tonight with no
precipitation and clear to mostly clear skies. Winds remain near or
under 10 knots but will shift but will gradually shift from the
northwest to the southwest by the evening. Some increasing clouds
are expected at KLBF by the evening as well, but ceilings will
remain well above 10 kft. Across northern Nebraska, there is a low
potential for some isolated showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and early evening. For the most part, confidence remains
low in coverage and development and any precipitation should remain
to the west of KVTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion