245
FXUS63 KLBF 192102
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
402 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal chance of thunderstorms this later afternoon and
evening
- Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday late
afternoon/evening
- Heavy rain potential Saturday into Sunday
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon
and evening, with large hail appearing to be the primary
hazard.
- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms may continue
through much of next week as an active northwest flow pattern
persists.
- Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal normals, generally
in the upper 70s to lower 80s through much of the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
The main concern in the short
term will be thunderstorm chances late this afternoon/evening and
Saturday late afternoon/evening. For late this afternoon into the
evening, do expect the shower activity to continue at least through
the remainder of the afternoon. There will be some isolated embedded
thunderstorms within the shower activity but do not expect these to
grow upscale into a stronger thunderstorm. The main threat would be
lightning. As for the chance of thunderstorms closer to the evening
hours, confidence remains low in any strong to severe thunderstorm
potential across much of the area. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms this morning that have continued through the afternoon
have kept temperatures cooler and have created some
stabilization, thus confidence in the severe potential near the
advancing front remains low. The front will continue to advance
southward before stalling, if a strong to severe storm were to
develop ahead of the front, the better environment would be far
southwest Nebraska, down towards Chase and Perkins counties and
southward where scattered clouds have given way to some sunshine
and temps are in the upper 70s to low 80s and
shower/thunderstorm activity has remained east of.
For Saturday, forecaster confidence is higher in more scattered to
widespread strong to severe thunderstorm activity. Today`s frontal
boundary that will stall somewhere south of here tonight, will lift
northward on Saturday as a warm front. This warm front will stall in
the afternoon and this will be the area of focus for severe
thunderstorm development. Although the exact location of the warm
front still remains uncertain, better confidence is expected
that the warm front will settle somewhere across southern
Nebraska. The area of the warm front will be the most concern
area, especially for supercell development. If initial storm
development in the afternoon is more discrete supercells will
need to monitor the area of the warm front for potential for
tornadic development along with large hail. 0 to 1 km helicity
increases in the afternoon around the vicinity of the warm front
and continues to remain high through the evening hours.
Southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the
area with dewpoints reaching the mid 60s across southern
Nebraska by late afternoon. 0 to 6 km shear will be around 50
to 60 kts across southwest Nebraska. MU CAPE across most of
western and north central Nebraska will be around 2000 to 3000
J/kg. Beyond the discrete supercell potential there will also be
the potential to see an MCS develop further north of the front
and a strengthening LLJ in the evening will increase convection
as well. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and
even a few tornadoes will be possible. There will also be the
secondary threat of heavy rain potential as storms PWATs greater
than 1.5" with qpf values around 1 to 2 inches Saturday into
Sunday. WPC has issued a slight risk across southwest Nebraska
for excessive rainfall and a marginal risk for the rest of
western and north central Nebraska. The main challenge that
remains for tomorrow is the uncertainty of where the front sets
up, but confidence remains high for strong to severe
thunderstorm development by late afternoon/evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Sunday, deep low-level moisture will remain across the area ahead of
another mid-level disturbance moving in from the west. Mid-level
frontogenesis combined with differential positive vorticity
advection should provide sufficient lift for thunderstorm
development across the western and northern Sandhills Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. Adequate low-level moisture, moderate
instability, and 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear will support
organized thunderstorms, with some potentially becoming severe. The
SPC Day 3 Outlook highlights portions of southwest Nebraska in a
Slight Risk for severe weather, with a broader Marginal Risk
extending across much of western and central Nebraska. Currently,
hail appears to be the primary threat, as forecast hodographs remain
fairly straight and the overall synoptic pattern remains supportive
of hail-producing supercells. Damaging winds will also be possible
with the stronger storms. The tornado threat appears very low at
this time, due to relatively weak low-level wind shear and limited
low-level hodograph curvature. This threat will continue to be
monitored over the next couple of forecast cycles. High temperatures
Sunday will be cooler across the area, ranging from the upper 60s
across northern Nebraska to the upper 70s/low 80s across southwest
Nebraska. Lows Sunday night will generally remain in the 50s.
Monday, west to northwest flow aloft will persist across the region.
This will maintain a cooler pattern, with highs generally in the low
to mid 70s. Another weak disturbance may provide sufficient lift for
thunderstorms to develop west of the area Monday evening before
moving eastward. Severe weather may once again be possible, though
confidence remains low given the extended forecast range. Lows
Monday night will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
area.
Tuesday and beyond, northwest flow aloft will continue across the
region as an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes sends periodic
disturbances southeastward through late next week. Better
precipitation chances on Tuesday may remain south of the area,
though some model guidance does show lingering precipitation chances
across southwest Nebraska. By midweek, increasing moisture advection
and periodic disturbances moving through the northwest flow pattern
may provide additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
across much of the area. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance
continue to indicate this potential. Confidence remains low
regarding the timing and coverage of any precipitation, but overall
the synoptic pattern favors periodic thunderstorm chances through
the middle and latter portions of next week. Temperatures are
expected to remain in the lower to middle 80s through much of mid to
late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible
early this afternoon across southwest Nebraska into the southern
Sandhills and central Nebraska. Could see some brief periods of
visibility impacts as showers pass over a terminal site. There
is a chance for some isolated thunderstorms late afternoon into
the evening, greatest potential will be across southwest
Nebraska, at this there is uncertainty where storms will develop
but the greatest potential at this time will be south and west
of KLBF terminal. Winds will become light overnight around 5 kts
out of the southeast across southern Nebraska and light and
variable elsewhere. Winds will then increase by mid morning out
of the east to southeast around 10 kts with gust up to 20 kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Gomez
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion