057
FXUS63 KLBF 200712
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
212 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Record temperatures are expected both today and Saturday, and
this warmth will lead to elevated to near critical weather
concerns today and critical fire weather concerns Saturday.
- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western and north
central Nebraska for Saturday into Saturday night due to
record temperatures, very low relative humidity, and gusty
southwest winds becoming north Saturday night with the passage
of a cold front.
- Temperatures remain above average early next week, bringing
additional fire weather concerns. Concerns appear highest
Monday and Wednesday of next week, as warm temperatures are
accompanied by low relative humidity and gusty winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Today, a strong upper level ridge will be centered over Arizona, and
will extend across the entire Western and Central U.S. A weak cool
front will pass through this morning, but will have little effect on
afternoon highs from near 80 to the low 80 north, to mid and upper
80s south. These highs were raised a few degrees toward the NBM 50th
percentile and are reflective of the highs reached today with
similar H85 temperatures. Winds northwest 5 to 15 mph, with
occasional gusts to 20 mph possible. Afternoon humidity will again
be very low, from 10 to 20 percent, lowest across the southwest.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected.
Tonight, a strong thermal ridge aloft, with a light southwest wind.
Lows will be mild in the mid 40s with mostly clear skies and the
humidity recovery poor at 40 to 55 percent.
Saturday, record highs are forecast to be broken at all climate
sites. Anomalously warm H85 temperatures from 24 to 28C across the
area. Forecast highs were nudged up near the 50th percentile, from
90 to the low 90s north, to the mid to upper 90s south. These highs
are also in close agreement with the latest MET and MAV guidance.
These forecast highs would also break the monthly record high for
March.
Deep mixing will occur, up to 500mb, with clear skies and persistent
southwesterly winds. This will mix very dry air to the surface, with
afternoon humidity as low as 7 to 10 percent across much of the
area. The combination of record high temperatures and very low
humidity will also combine with the gusty southwest west winds and
lead to critical fire concerns. Gusts up to 30 mph during the
afternoon will diminish some in the early evening, followed by a
cold front dropping into northern Nebraska by late evening, and
dropping quickly south overnight. West winds quickly shift to the
north behind the front from 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
possible, are expected for up to a 6 hour period overnight. The
sharp west to north wind shift, will prolong fire weather concerns
across the area through the evening into the overnight. Therefore
the current Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from 11 AM CDT
Saturday until 4 AM CDT Sunday, along for the wind shift and gusty
winds behind the front Saturday night.
Lows Saturday night only fall into upper 30s to mid 40s. Humidity
recovery will improve to 75 to 80 percent north, and 70 to 75
percent south.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Behind the frontal passage on Saturday, temperatures cool off
slightly for Sunday, with highs in the 60s across most of the
region. Upper level ridging begins to build back across the region
Sunday night, which will usher in a return to above average
temperatures by early next week. With no precipitation expected and
temperatures remaining above average, expect low relative humidity
values early next week as well. The hot, dry conditions will bring
at least elevated fire weather concerns to start off the week.
Concerns appear greatest on Monday and Wednesday, as both days may
see wind gusts around 30 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday looks to be
particularly concerning, as highs again return to the 80s across the
region. However, seeing a very similar set up to Saturday for
Wednesday, meaning that the current forecast highs in the 80s may
still be too cool. In fact, guidance suggests that highs in the 90s
aren`t out of the question for Wednesday. With the current forecast,
already expecting that critical relative humidity values will be
expected across most of the region, but highs in the 90s may push
those values even lower. Will continue to monitor the forecast
trends throughout the weekend to see if additional fire weather
headlines will be needed.
Late week, another cold front is expected to track into the region,
bringing somewhat cooler temperatures, with highs back in the 50s
and 60s. The cold front may bring some very gusty winds Thursday
afternoon, with possible wind gusts up to 35 mph out of the north.
However, the frontal passage does appear to be a dry front, bringing
very little chance for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. Skies remain
mostly clear, outside of some high cirrus. Light winds out of the
northwest persist overnight into the late morning. By the afternoon,
may see some light gusts, generally under 20 knots, across portions
of the northern Sandhills, including the KVTN terminal. As the
inversion develops in the evening, winds become light and variable
across the region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
After poor relative humidity recovery this morning from 40 to 55
percent, temperatures are going to warm considerably today, which
will allow for a prolonged period of critically low relative
humidity. Northwest 5 to 15 mph, with occasional gusts to 20 mph
possible. Afternoon humidity will again be very low, from 10 to 15
percent across much of the area, lowest across the southwest.
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected.
Critical fire weather conditions expected Saturday as record highs
reach the low 90s to upper 90s. It cannot be emphasized enough how
warm temperatures will be Saturday afternoon, with highs reaching 35
to 40 degrees above climatological norms. Relative humidity values
fall to 7 to 10 percent. A cold front is move into northern Nebraska
by late evening (03Z), and drop quickly south overnight. Prior to
the front, southwest to west winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
are expected. Behind the front, winds will shift to the north at 20
to 30 mph and could gust to 40 mph for a few hours. A prolonged
period of extreme fire behavior would be possible with any fires
Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. A Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect from 11 AM CDT Saturday until 4 Am CDT
Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026
Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)
Today 03/20 Tomorrow 03/21
North Platte 87/83 (1997) 97/86 (1910)
Valentine 83/83 (1997) 93/84 (1910)
Broken Bow 87/82 (2004) 96/83 (1997)
Imperial 87/83 (1910) 99/87 (1907)
Forecast highs at North Platte, Imperial, and Valentine would break
all-time March records on Saturday.
Also of note, overnight lows on Friday night into Saturday
morning may break records for being daily warmest low
temperatures. The current forecast low on Saturday morning at
North Platte is 43, with the previous warmest low temperature
being 42, which was achieved in 1911, 1916, and 1946. For
Valentine, the forecast of 44 would tie the record of 44, set in
1910.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
night for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg
CLIMATE...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion