878
FXUS63 KLBF 301916
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
216 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into the evening for areas along and east of Highway 83.
The main threat will be damaing wind gusts but an isolated hail and
tornado threat cannot be ruled out.

- Warm, dry conditions expected heading into the weekend and through
Monday, which will bring about elevated to near critical fire
weather concerns.

- A potential return to seasonal highs and some light precipitation
chances expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across most of the
region, but especially across north central into central Nebraska.
An upper level shortwave from the Mountain West will continue to
move eastward into our region by mid afternoon. This should interact
with the unstable environment and help provide better lift for
thunderstorms this evening. A surface low has developed in southern
South Dakota to further help initiate cells as the cold front moves
through. Dewpoints remain high (low to mid 70s) across north central
to central Nebraska along with ample MUCAPE at 2500 - 3000 J/kg
should provide an environment for severe growth. CAMs have had
general agreement in starting out supercellic in nature with modest
0-6 km CAPE at low to mid 30 knots. While H850 temps are on the
warmer side in the mid to upper 20s C, the MUCAPE mentioned above
along with modest lapse rates shows that an isolated large hail
threat is possible. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat
as storms transition into a potential line later this evening. CAMs
have been in fair agreement of cells bunching into a line early this
evening and moving southeastward into central Nebraska. This also
matches up with a large area of about 1000 J/kg DCAPE. With
abnormally high Pwat values of 1.91 inches as well as low and
mid RH values being near the 75% threshold from our 18z sounding
there is a signal for storms to be potential flood producers
regardless of severe potential. As such, a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been issued for most of the CWA until 9 PM CDT which
lines up with CAMs on when most of our convection should move
out of our region.

Friday will start to bring a return to warmer, drier conditions as a
ridge moves in from the west. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
with gusty northerly winds up to 30 - 35 mph. This will promote some
elevated fire concerns even humidity only being around 40
percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Summer heat will build back over the weekend as an upper level ridge
moves in from western CONUS. As it stands, guidance is currently
suggesting H850 temps in the 20 - 30C with surface highs cresting
the mid 90s on Saturday with surface highs reaching even higher to
triple digits in the eastern Panhandle on Sunday. These warmer
temperatures along with afternoon humidity values dropping to
20 - 25 percent across the eastern Panhandle into the Sandhills,
with moderate probability (30 - 50%) of humidity dropping into
the teens, especially Sunday. Combine this with gusty south
southeast winds and little to no wetting precipitation expected,
will make for the likely return of elevated to near critical
fire weather concerns for the western half of our CWA. Will
continue to closely monitor the forecast for any increased
confidence with this trend.

By Monday afternoon, the ridge will begin to breakdown as an upper
level trough begins to dig into the region from western Canada. This
will largely be the driving force for stronger winds and heightened
fire weather concerns. LREF guidance suggests at 50 - 70%
probability of wind gusts in excess of 30 mph gusts across the
region. With highs in the mid to upper 90s and afternoon
humidity will drop to low 20s to upper teens along and west of
Highway 83, this will make for near critical fire weather
conditions, where if the trend holds, could warrant some fire
weather headlines, depending on how receptive fuels are to
recent rains. This will be another trend to monitor for any
changes. A cool front will push through Monday night, returning
to near seasonal high temperatures for the rest of the week.
There is some signal for better precipitation chances Monday
night with a cool front moving in but, there remains some
ensemble disagreement over just how much precipitation will fall
during this time with GEFS and ECMWF members showing 0 - 0.1"
while GFS being on the aggressive side with up to a half inch of
rain by the end of Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered thunderstorm will be possible across north central
Nebraska by early to mid afternoon, impacting KVTN and move
southeastward through the evening. KLBF could possibly be clipped by
these thunderstorms as they move southeastward this evening.
Gusty, erratic winds and MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in
and around any thunderstorms. Once storms clear out by late
evening, winds will become gusty out of the northwest at 10 - 15
kts gusting up to 25 kts across the region. Some low clouds are
expected to move in early Friday morning which will bring about
a period of MVFR conditions but should clear out Late Friday
morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MRS

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion