000
FXUS63 KLBF 072014
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
214 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

Key messages:

- Becoming very windy with snow or snow squalls possible Wednesday
  night and Thursday.

- A warming trend will arrive late in the week with above normal
  temperatures for the weekend.

- Conditions become unsettled by the middle of next week with the
  potential for accumulating snow, though at this time confidence
  in timing and any specific amounts is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

For tonight, an upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest.
With mainly clear skies and a light southwest wind, a strong
inversion near the surface will develop, with lows colder from 15 to
around 20.

On Wednesday, the upper trough will deepen across the Western High
Plains and Central Rockies. This will drive a Canadian cold front
into the west late in the day. This allow highs to reach the low to
mid 40s. So far the existing snowpack has held back highs some 5 to
10 degrees. nudged toward the NBM 75th percentile for highs.

Wednesday night, the upper trough will move into the area and bring
a chance for light snow to the western Sandhills and north central
Nebraska. Northwest winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts
to 40 mph after midnight. Models have shown a slight increase in
QPFs, and forecast snowfall amounts may range from a dusting up to a
half inch. Any higher amounts should be confined to the Pine
Ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

Thursday, this upper trough will move across the region. Although
the system will be positively tilted, some Pacific moisture will
exist. Increased POPs near the CONSALL for 40-50 POPS across nctrl
into cntrl Nebraska, and a slight chance across southwestern areas.
The main concern on Thursday will be the strong northwest winds.
Bufkit soundings at VTN and BBW show unidirectional winds 700mb
through 850mb near 45kts. This supports surface wind gusts of 35 to
40kts (near 45 to 50 mph) late morning through late afternoon. With
CAA, highs will only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s. With winds of
this magnitude, any light snow falling could create at least patchy
blowing snow with rapidly falling visibility and some travel
difficulties possible. In fact, the CIPS snow squall parameter
indicates increased values west of Valentine though Broken Bow to
support brief snow squalls. Low and mid level lapse rates will be
higher and some weak surface instability is shown. Snowfall amounts
from a half inch to an inch are possible, although these amounts
should be fairly isolated. The system should move just east of the
area Thursday night with dry conditions and windy conditions in the
east to diminish overnight.

Friday and Saturday, strong upper ridging will bring a warmup into
the weekend. Colder temperatures on the backside of the upper trough
over the Great Lakes/Mississippi Valley on Friday will see highs
across western Nebraska contrasting from near 30 at O`Neill to near
40 across the west and southwest. A strong warmup on Saturday.
While existing snowpack will still affect temperatures, feel the NBM
75th percentile would support the possibility for highs to reach the
upper 40s to lower 50s across the west and central areas.

An upper trough approaching the region Sunday will bring a Pacific
cold front into the area. Highs should still reach 40 to 45 most
locations. As the upper trough moves through Sunday night into
Monday, dry conditions should persist. Highs expected Monday in the
40s to near 50.

Overall, the existing snowpack will gradually lessen and will have
less of an effect on potential highs this weekend into early next
week.

Beyond Monday, A storm system may move into the region the middle of
next week. A deep upper trough and closed low may advance into the
region Wednesday into Thursday of next week. Details remain
uncertain on any impacts and will continue to monitor forecast
trends closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2023

VFR conditions will persist over the next 24 hours with mostly
clear skies expected. Winds willl be around 10 to 15 mph thorugh
the day out of the south. Winds become southeast and 5 kts or
less tonight through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion