542
FXUS63 KLBF 151745
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions continue across all of western and
  north central Nebraska. Temperatures in the upper 90s to lower
  100s are expected on Friday and into the weekend.

- Some elevated fire weather concerns develop, especially
  Thursday afternoon when humidity will drop into the 20-25%
  range, mainly for northwest Nebraska.

- While some uncertainty remains in the forecast for early next
  week, there is a signal for potentially cooling temperatures
  and lower end precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in firm
control right though the end of the week. Thickness actually
decreases slightly but will have no impact on temperatures. In
fact, they will continue to warm, and by Friday we may be
nearing heat advisory criteria.

Southeast low-level flow will persist through Thursday as leeward
troughing remains established along the Front Range. Doesn`t appear
that the flow will be overly strong, but localized gusts in the 20-
25 mph range can be expected both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
This could lead to some elevated fire weather concerns, especially
in areas that haven`t received the rains other have and fuels
continue to dry with the heat. The lower humidity will Thursday
afternoon, where much of northwest Nebraska we lower into the 20-25%
range during the afternoon hours.

No precipitation is expected the next couple of days as very warm
temperatures aloft continue to persist and very little flow
aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The late week forecast remains on track, as heat is expected to
build in earnest Friday into this weekend. Upper level ridging is
expected to remain across the area, with a push of warmer
temperatures aloft, supporting daily highs in the upper 90s to lower
100s. Overnight, lows will provide little relief, as temperatures
only cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s. While the European
ensemble remains the cooler member, even it is now suggesting a 50%
chance of highs breaking 100 across northern Nebraska by Sunday. The
GEFS, which so far seems to be more bullish on heat, brings a nearly
70% chance of areas east of Highway 83 breaking 100 by Sunday, with
most of the area at least at a 50% chance. In fact, the GEFS even
brings heat chances a bit further south on Saturday as well, but
mostly remains contained over north central Nebraska. All this to
say, confidence remains quite high on temperatures breaking into the
upper 90s to lower 100s Friday through Sunday. Again, this keeps
temperatures right around to just above the 90th percentile of high
temperatures compared to climatology. For now, it still looks like
we will remain below record high temperatures, but it will still get
quite hot this weekend. Still keeping an eye on this period for
potential heat headlines, especially given how ensembles suggest
an expanded area may break 100.

While uncertainty remains in timing of a potential break in this
pattern, the global deterministic models have come into better
agreement on this latest forecast cycle, and even cluster analysis
brings a more harmonious picture. On this latest run, there is more
consensus on ridging remaining mostly in place Sunday into Monday,
with all solutions going towards a lower amplitude ridge. A trough
is expected to track across the Pacific Northwest and across south
central Canada, which is expected to push the top of the ridge into
North Dakota. There still remains a possibility of a backdoor cold
front tracking across the Plains, bringing a push of cooler air and
potential precipitation in as early as Monday. However, the timing
still remains uncertain in this pattern, especially in the Monday to
Monday night timeframe.

Tuesday into Wednesday, there is more agreement on ridging building
to the west, with northwest flow aloft. As a few shortwaves push
through the upper level flow, there is a better signal for some
precipitation across the region. At this time, it does not look like
much precipitation. Ensembles suggest a 30 percent chance of one
tenth of an inch or better, but virtually no chance of one half inch
or better. However, what does appear more likely is a return to more
seasonal temperatures by Tuesday. Again, still some slight
uncertainty given the timing, but in general, temperatures are
expected to become cooler, so perhaps at least some relief from the
heat is in store.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Diurnal cumulus continues to expand across the area and should
envelope both terminals this afternoon. South-southeasterly
winds will be gusty at times with peak speeds around 20 knots.
Clouds should linger into the evening with renewed development
expected Thursday under similar ceilings.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion