199
FXUS63 KLBF 142354
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
654 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog likely tonight.

- Warmer Wednesday with a threat for thunderstorms Wednesday
  night mainly over western and northwestern portions of the
  forecast area. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible.

- Threat for thunderstorms will continue into Thursday night as
  a cold front traverses the forecast area.

- Drier for the weekend with seasonal temperatures expected.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored over
northeastern Texas. Ridging extended to the north-northeast into
Wisconsin and the LP of Michigan. Low pressure was located
approximately 300 miles off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula. The
main feature of note across the CONUS this morning was the deep
closed low along the central California coast. Downstream of this
feature, southwesterly flow extended from the Four Corners,
northeast into the Dakotas and Nebraska. Within this flow, numerous
weak disturbances extended from the central Rockies, northeast into
the high plains of the Dakotas, western Nebraska and eastern
portions of Montana and Wyoming. A broad area of scattered rain
showers continued to lift to the northeast across the forecast area
earlier this morning and as of midday, this activity had moved
northeast of the area. At the surface, a warm front was situated
just to the south of the Kansas/Nebraska border this afternoon.
Temperatures south of this feature were generally in the 60s. North
of the front, temperatures were in the 50s under a thick shroud of
low clouds. The only place which had some clearing skies was over
northern Sheridan County. As of 2 PM CDT, temperatures ranged from
50 degrees at North Platte, Broken Bow, O`Neill and Ainsworth, to 56
degrees at Gordon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Fog potential
tonight, followed by thunderstorm chances late Wednesday into
Wednesday night are the main forecast challenges in the near term.
Surface low pressure will deepen over northeastern Colorado tonight.
This will be in advance of an approaching shortwave trough,
currently off the central California Coast. This feature by morning
will be located over central Nevada. As the surface low deepens, a
warm front, currently over Kansas will lift north, approaching the I-
80 corridor by sunrise Wednesday. Along and north of this feature,
persistent easterly winds and moisture advection, will lead to fog
development tonight. The latest HRRR and NAM12 visby products have
below quarter mile visibility across the Sandhills tonight. The
latest HREF ensembles place a near 80 percent chance for visbys
below 1/2sm over the Sandhills overnight. Feel confident enough in
widespread and areas of fog in the Sandhills tonight and will insert
this in the forecast. Also with a saturated boundary layer, decent
low level lift and a non saturated mid layer, feel drizzle will be a
good bet tonight, but the overall threat for measurable
precipitation appears low. The warm front will continue to lift
north during the day on Wednesday. However the latest NAM 12 soln
does not lift this feature into southern South Dakota, as advertised
in its 06z run from last night. The 12z HRRR compared to the 06z
HRRR has mirrored this as well. That being said, will hold onto
clouds during most of the day across the far northern forecast area
and lower forecast highs tomorrow. By late afternoon, the higher
resolution solutions develop convection in the panhandle and far
northwestern forecast area. Believe thunderstorm formation will be
highly conditional as forecast CAPE`s are meager and generally in
the 500 to 750J/KG range. East of the panhandle, temps will be
warmer, however forecast soundings indicate a healthy cap Wednesday
afternoon. Where the CAP is weak, deep layer shear is in the 50 to
60 KT range, which may be too strong to sustain updrafts. One area I
am concerned about convection may lie INVOF the warm front,
especially over the northwestern forecast area. Low level helicities
are strong tomorrow afternoon/early evening over northwestern
Nebraska. If convection can fire, wouldn`t be surprised if we saw a
briefly intense storm or two. Believe this will be an area for more
detailed mesoanalysis tomorrow afternoon. Overnight, the warm front
will lift into South Dakota. Broad forcing for thunderstorms will
lift north as well into the western Dakotas, northeastern Wyoming
and eastern Montana. For the remainder of the forecast area, it will
be a mild night with readings in the 50s with most locations in the
upper 50s. The current forecast low of 58 degrees for North Platte
Thursday would tie the record low minimum temp for October 16th.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Thursday...Longwave trough over the Great Basin will gradually lift
north and east, favoring a neutral to modest negative tilt as it
crosses the central/northern Rockies. Western Nebraska should only
fare a glancing blow as the brunt of upper-level dynamics remains to
the northwest. That said, low-level forcing will increase as a cool
front settles south out of western South Dakota. Highs will climb
into the 70s ahead of the boundary but hold in the 60s behind.
Increasing WAA over the warm sector will promote isolated to widely
scattered showers favoring east of Highway 83. Though mid-level
lapse rates are fairly marginal, MUCAPE values climb to 500-1000
j/kg within a strongly sheared environment. This supports the
mention of thunderstorms early in the day and continuing through the
early evening. Currently, the latest Storm Prediction Center outlook
for Thursday (Day 3) keeps a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) confined
to the KS/CO border up to Highway 23 in far southwest Nebraska. Many
deterministic solutions actually suggest weakening instability
through the day, largely due to waning mid-level lapse rates. In
addition to this, early activity largely driven by WAA will focus
over South Dakota and afternoon PoPs will largely be tied to h85-h7
fgen. This will largely lag the surface boundary in a less favorable
environment (stabilizing boundary layer, waning mid-level lapse
rates). Therefore, believe the decision to keep the severe outlook
mainly to our southwest is warranted at this time. With strong
linear forcing, anomalous moisture, and shear vectors parallel to
the boundary, do believe some threat for heavy rain bears watching
due to training storms. NBM paints expansive probabilities of
exceeding 0.50", upwards of 60-80%, within a narrow corridor. More
precise and final placement of the greatest QPF will heavily rely on
placement of the frontal boundary so slight variations of 10-20
miles for the max QPF could amount to a +/- 0.25" change. Folks
should continue to monitor later forecasts for the latest regarding
this potential.

Friday through Monday...a fairly quiet period of the forecast
appears likely. Troughing will continue to lift north and east into
southern Canada. As this occurs, a deep h5 low will take shape over
southern Manitoba. This placement should keep most sensible weather
limited to the Northern Plains. High pressure will work in from the
west as upper-level ridging builds over the West Coast and
eventually extends east into the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will
waver somewhat with cooler values for Friday/Saturday, 60s falling
to 50s/60s respectively, followed by a modest warm up as values
return to upper 60s to middle 70s for Sunday/Monday. While central
high pressure stays to our west, lightly westerly flow under largely
clear skies should promote favorable conditions for the threat of
frost. NBM probabilities of MinTs falling below 32F peak around 50-
70% across the west central Sandhills. Will cap mention at "Areas"
for now and monitor going forward.

Tuesday and beyond...amplified shortwave ridging will settle into
the central and southern Plains. Evolution of this pattern varies
considerably between deterministic solutions beyond Tuesday.
Overall, a progressive pattern appears probable with multiple upper-
level disturbances impacting much of CONUS. Timing of any particular
system affecting the local area remains low confidence for now. That
said, QPF probabilities show an appreciable signal sometime around
Tuesday/Wednesday. While precipitation should largely favor rain,
cooler air should fill in behind the system and lead to a brief
period of more seasonable temperatures. Ensembles suggest this
should be very short lived with highs likely returning to above
normal values by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas of IFR and LIFR can be expected tonight as a warm front
lifts northward across the area. Areas of dense fog will occur
with the low ceilings. Conditions will begin to improve from
south to north Wednesday morning. east to southeast winds 5-10
kts tonight will increase from the southeast 10-20 kts during
the day Wednesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Wednesday for
NEZ022>029-035>038-057-059.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion