542
FXUS63 KLBF 041142
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances have trended downward somewhat for tonight
  into Wednesday morning.

_ Much cooler temperatures are expected Today and Wednesday with
  highs in the 70s. A gradual warmup will push highs into the
  80s for Thursday with 90s returning for Friday through
  Monday.

- The threat for organized measurable precipitation beyond
  Wednesday is low with better chances arriving on Monday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

H5 analysis had an area of high pressure anchored over
northwestern New Mexico and northeastern Arizona. North of the high,
a trough of low pressure extended from around Churchill Manitoba,
south southwest into the western Dakotas. Another shortwave upstream
of this feature was located over southern Alberta. East of the
trough, ridging extended north from the central Great Lakes into
northeastern Ontario. Immediately east of this feature, a broad
trough of low pressure extended from Quebec, south into New England.
At the surface overnight, a cold front had passed through the
forecast area by midnight CT. As of 2 AM CDT, this feature was
oriented along a line from Sioux City, to Hastings, to south of
McCook. Well behind the front, a broad area of thunderstorms had
developed from near Hyannis to north of O`Neill. Under partly to
mostly cloudy skies, 2 AM CDT temperatures ranged from 53 degrees at
Gordon, to 70 degrees at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Precipitation chances this morning, and again late tonight into
Wednesday are the main forecast challenges in the near term.
The threat for precipitation will linger into the morning hours
today in the eastern forecast area. This is in the vicinity of
an H700 front and generally east of approaching surface high
pressure. As the high pushes south and east this afternoon, the
threat for precipitation will gradually end from west to east.
With the forecast area being north of the frontal boundary and
continued cool air advection today, highs will struggle to get
out of upper 60s to lower 70s. Persistent cloud cover,
particularly over the southern half of the forecast area this
afternoon, will also limit the warmup. For highs today,
generally followed the NBM ensemble guidance which was slightly
cooler than the warm MAV guidance and well above the very cool
MET guidance. For the North Platte, this yielded a high of 73
today. This was in contrast with the MET`s high of 66 degrees
which is at the 10th%ile of the NBM ensemble spread. Conditions
will be mainly dry this evening as the surface high crosses
southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas. Overnight into
Wednesday morning, weak mid level warm air advection, timed with
a shortwave, will bring an increased threat for light
precipitation to the area. Looking at the NBM ensemble QPF
probability of exceedance forecast tonight, I am much less
optimistic about decent rainfall. In fact the 0.01 and 0.10
exceedance thresholds are around 20 percent lower than what was
in last night`s forecast. That being said, pops were dropped
into the chance category tonight and Wednesday and likely pops
were eliminated from the forecast. As for temperatures
Wednesday, we should see somewhat warmer temps compared to today
with precipitation ending midday Wednesday and some limited
afternoon clearing expected. This will result in highs mainly in
the lower to middle 70s with a possibility of 80 in the far
west and northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Ridging across the western CONUS, will begin to migrate east
beginning Thursday with the forecast area not seeing the main
effects of this airmass until Friday. For Thursday, highs will
be in the mid 80s to around 90 in the west. Much warmer
temperatures will arrive on Friday across the area with Saturday
through Monday featuring hot temperatures across all of the
forecast area. The latest NBM continues to trend higher with its
forecast temps Friday through Monday and is reflected with this
forecast package. Looking at the GFS ensembles and their mean
highs, North Platte could see 100+ degree readings Friday
through Monday. The deterministic GFS soln has H85 temps of 30+
C across SW Nebraska with some locations in far SW Nebraska
eclipsing 35C Friday through Monday. With temperatures trending
upward in the NBM and with support from the deterministic and
ensemble GFS solns, will probably begin to message the heat for
the end of the week. As for precipitation chances, they appear
limited through Monday. However, by Monday, a northern stream
trough may force a frontal boundary into northern Nebraska which
may lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
over northern Nebraska. Forecast confidence is low ATTM and pops
were not increased over the slight chance, low end chance pops
with the inherited forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect mainly cloudy skies over the next
24 hours. Ceilings will range from 4000 to 7000 FT AGL through
early evening with ceilings ranging from 5000 to 10000 FT AGL.
There is a small threat for showers overnight tonight and will
handle mention with a prob30 group. For the KVTN terminal:
Expect broken ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL
through this afternoon. Skies will then clear out this evening,
becoming broken at 20000 FT AGL overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion