883
FXUS63 KLBF 270535
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1235 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs will peak on Wednesday in the mid 80s with readings gradually
  falling into the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to
  around 80.

- Daily precipitation chances from Wednesday through the weekend.
  Heavy rainfall is possible given available moisture, however
  confidence in precipitation placement is low.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure located in the western
Atlantic off the coast of the Carolinas. Across the CONUS this
morning, a fairly convoluted pattern was noted. An elongated ridge
extended from the Carolinas, west-northwest into the upper
Mississippi Valley and northeastern Nebraska. South of this feature,
a tandem of shortwaves were noted. The first over the ArkLatex and a
second over eastern New Mexico. Further west, closed low pressure
was noted just off the coast of southeastern Oregon. A trough
extended south of this feature into central California. East of this
feature, a decent shortwave trough was noted over eastern Idaho and
western Wyoming. At the surface, low pressure was noted over central
Montana. A surface trough extended south-southeast of this feature
into north central Wyoming, then eastern Colorado. Gusty southerly
winds had developed across the western half of the forecast area
this afternoon and the combination of gusty winds and low relative
humidity, has led to the issuance of a red flag warning earlier
today for the eastern panhandle and western Sandhills. As of 2 PM
CDT, winds were gusting up to 42 MPH at Imperial and temperatures
ranged from 84 degrees at Imperial to 91 degrees at Valentine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The upper level low over southeastern Oregon, will dive
southeast into western Nevada tonight. At the same time,
elongated ridging will drift northwest into the Dakotas. Showers
and thunderstorms in association with a weak shortwave, will
drift to the north overnight across the Texas Panhandle into the
Oklahoma Panhandle and far southeastern Colorado. Further
north, expect mainly clear skies tonight with diminishing winds
this evening. Overnight lows will bottom out in the lower to
middle 50s. The upper level low will retrograde to the southwest
into central California Wednesday into Wednesday night. A
blocking ridge will remain in place extending form eastern
Missouri northwest into northeastern Nebraska and the Dakotas.
South of this feature, the shortwave, responsible for
precipitation in the Texas Panhandle tonight, will continue to
drift slowly northward, only making it into western Kansas by
12z Thursday. Weak leave will slowly lift north across western
Kansas during the day on Wednesday approaching extreme SW
Nebraska Wednesday night. Across the forecast area Wednesday
clouds will increase from the south leading to highs in the
middle 80s. Further north and northeast, highs will reach into
the upper 80s to lower 90s under full sun. With the ridge
remaining stationary Wednesday and Wednesday night,
precipitation off to the south of the area, will have a very
difficult time lifting north into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Ridging will slowly migrate east on Thursday and Thursday
night, reaching the upper Mississippi Valley Friday morning.
This will allow the persistent shortwave across western Kansas,
to migrate slowly north into western Nebraska. Precipitation
chances will begin to increase Thursday night from southwestern
into western Nebraska. This threat will continue Thursday night
through the weekend as the closed low over the SW CONUS weakens
and lifts northeast into the ridge axis. Currently pops are in
the 30 to 60 percent range Friday through Sunday. This may be
overdone as there is not much of a surface boundary to focus
precipitation on this weekend. With a very weak sheared
environment indicated in the latest deterministic models and
PWATS running 90 to 125 percent of normal this weekend,
precipitation will be feast or famine. If a location is lucky
enough to have thunderstorms, there will be the threat for heavy
rainfall. Given the lack of a surface focus, that widespread
threat for heavy rainfall appears localized at best and limited
to the western half of the forecast area. Unfortunately for
eastern Nebraska, their closer proximity to the ridge axis will
limit the threat for precipitation this weekend. There will be a
continued threat for precipitation early into next week with
the blocking ridge remaining in place just off to the east of
the area and weak southwesterly flow extending from the western
Dakotas into western Nebraska. ATTM, forecast confidence remains
in doubt as the deterministic models typically have
difficulties in handling blocking pattern`s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. HIgh cirrus is
expected through the night, with fair weather cumulus development
across the region during the afternoon. However, no impacts to
ceilings are expected. Winds remain out of the southeast tonight,
and ingress in speed by late morning. Through the afternoon, gusty
winds are expected, with strongest gusts across the Sandhills into
western Nebraska. After sunset, calmer winds are expected, with a
mid level cloud layer expected to track across southwest Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion