612
FXUS63 KLBF 221941
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
241 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures Friday, with highs in the
  upper 70s to mid 80s. Strong southerly winds are expected,
  with gusts up to 45 mph, along with low chances for showers
  and a few thunderstorms Friday night.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms return for this weekend and
  persist into early next week, leading to the potential for
  widespread appreciable rainfall for much of western and north
  central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Tonight and Friday...An upper level ridge axis will reside over the
middle and upper Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough
will reside from southern California into western Montana. Ample
boundary level moisture with dewpoints in the 50s. A south to
southeast wind tonight will increase to 15 to 30 mph with mild lows
in the upper 50s to near 60. Windy Friday, with a south wind 20 to
30 mph, with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. Very warm with highs low to mid
80s west and upper 70s to near 80 east. These highs will be from
18 to 25 degrees above normal. Afternoon humidity falls to 28
to 35 percent across the west and 35 to around 40 percent east,
limiting fire concerns somewhat, despite the gusty winds.

Friday night and Saturday...Increased chances for showers, with a
few thunderstorms Friday night as a cold front arrives in the
northwest Sandhills late Friday night. Lows from the upper 30s to
mid 40s northwest Sandhills, to mid 50s far southeast. A lead
shortwave trough will lift into North Dakota Saturday, pushing the
cold front into far southeastern areas. The southern stream closed
low will hang back west of the Four Corners across Arizona. Likely
chances for showers across southwest into eastern portions of north
central Nebraska in the afternoon. Highs from the low to mid 50s
northwest Sandhills, to low 60s southwest and far eastern areas.
North winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph in the morning,
diminish to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Saturday night through Monday, appreciable rainfall looks likely.

Saturday night...The main upper trough and closed low will advance
slowly east across the Central Rockies and Four Corners. The cold
front is forecast to stall out across far southwest Nebraska through
northeast Nebraska through Sunday. As the upper trough/closed low
moves very slowly east into northeast Wyoming and Colorado by late
Sunday night, showers chances are categorical. NBM 48 hour
probability of 0.50 inch or greater ending 12Z Tuesday is 75 to 95
percent, with highest probabilities from Hayes Center through North
Platte and Ainsworth. Noteworthy, that greater than 1.0 inch for
this same corridor at 75 to 85 percent. The 12Z GEFS ensemble QPF
continues to increase from previous runs, now showing rainfall
amounts above 1.0 inch east of Valentine through Big Springs,
with amounts exceeding 1.75 inches southwest into central
Nebraska. The ECMWF is further west, with amounts above 1.0
inch, with highest amounts near 1.5 inches near the Highway 83
corridor. Lows 35 to around 40 Saturday night. Soundings in the
northwest Sandhills show any precipitation remaining as rain.
Highs Sunday 45 to 55 with an east to northeast wind 10 to 15
mph. Could see a mix of rain/snow Sunday night across the
northwest Sandhills as H85 temperatures fall below 0C.

Monday into Monday night...The upper trough will cross Nebraska and
may develop a closed low over central into eastern Nebraska. Likely
to categorical POPs Monday, then lowering to chance pops later
Monday night. Colder air drawn in behind the system could bring a
mix of rain/snow to north central Nebraska. No accumulations
expected at this time, though will monitor model trends and
soundings closely.

Tuesday through Thursday...Weak upper ridging should gradually
return. Highs in the 50s Tuesday should moderate to the upper 50s to
low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Lingering light showers
possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The main aviation concern will be gusty southerly winds the next
24 hours. wind gusts to 25KT this afternoon and 30KT tonight
into Friday morning at KLBF and KVTN. LLWS 020/20040KT will be
a concern at KLBF 05Z until 15Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion