473
FXUS63 KLBF 250454
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog is expected to develop tonight across the
  Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska, with visibility
  below one quarter mile at times. Another round of fog is
  expected Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- A surface system tracks into the region Sunday night,
  bringing chances for precipitation across the region. Rain
  chances persist through early Tuesday morning.

- Gusty winds are expected to accompany the system and remain
  behind the system, with gusts up to 30 mph possible Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

A low pressure system remains over north central Kansas,
transporting higher dewpoints into southern Nebraska. The low is
also tracking a stratus deck across north central and central
Nebraska this afternoon, which is expected to cover most of
southwest and north central Nebraska by this evening. Surface winds
to the north of the low remain relatively calm this afternoon,
generally at or below 10 mph. By this evening, winds at the surface
are expected to be quite calm. The additional moisture being pulled
into the region, combined with calm winds, will allow for the
development of fog across a large portion of the forecast region
tonight. Guidance continues to point to a dense fog across most of
the region tonight, most notably across the Sandhills, southwest,
and central Nebraska, where overnight visibility may drop below one
quarter mile. In coordination with neighboring offices, went ahead
and issued a Dense Fog Advisory for this evening and overnight
across most of the region. The more dense fog is expected to be in
the counties covered by the Advisory, however, areas outside the
Advisory may still see some sporadic areas of patchy, dense fog,
mostly in low lying areas.

The stratus deck is expected to remain across the eastern portions
of the region tomorrow afternoon, mostly areas along and east of
Highway 83. With this in mind, have opted to lower daytime highs
under the areas affected by the stratus deck by a few degrees, which
puts highs in the upper 50s. Further northwest, where skies are
clear, highs tomorrow afternoon could reach into the low 70s. This
will set up a notable temperature gradient across the region, and
along with this, may see some gustier winds across northwest
Nebraska tomorrow afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph out of the
south.

Tomorrow night, after the boundary layer decouples, winds remain
quite light across southwest and central Nebraska. Dewpoints remain
in the mid 40s across the region, and combined with another night of
overcast skies, will limit the ability for temperatures to drop
overnight, with lows also in the mid 40s. Light winds and near 100
percent relative humidity will allow for another round of fog
development Saturday night into Sunday morning. The best fog
potential appears to be across southwest into central Nebraska,
however, this area may expand given the extent of the moisture. Will
continue to monitor short term forecast trends to see if another
Dense Fog Advisory will be warranted Saturday night into Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Sunday, an upper level trough tracks across the western United
States. A series of low pressure systems are expected to develop
across southern Canada and the Great Plains, eventually tracking
east. Across the region, stratus is expected to remain in place,
leading to seasonal autumn weather. Highs range from the upper 50s
to low 60s across the region, and for reference, the average high
this time of year is 61. As the lows track across the Great Plains,
a cold front develops, which is expected to begin tracking into the
region as early as Sunday night. These systems will bring our best
chances for precipitation this week, with most of the area expected
to see at least measureable rainfall. As the system slowly tracks
east, rain showers are expected to continue through the day Monday,
lasting into early Tuesday morning. The bulk of the precipitation is
expected to be rain, however, ensembles show some low end chances
for some snow to mix in. Particularly, given overnight lows on
Monday night into Tuesday morning, if showers continue, cannot
completely rule out a few snowflakes mixing into the precipitation.
However, given the temperatures mostly remain above freezing, not
expecting that anything would stick.

This system also brings gusty northwesterly winds across the region,
with gusty northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday. Gusts up to 30
mph are expected both days, with more widespread gusts expected on
Tuesday. As the system tracks east, winds shift to southerly on
Wednesday, with gusts beginning to drop around 20 to 25 mph by
Wednesday. As another system tracks near the region, could see
another uptick in winds on Thursday, but for now will continue to
monitor forecast trends. This potential mid to late week system
appears to be a dry system, though, just bringing gusty winds and
slightly cooler conditions. Mid to late week, temperatures are
expected to reach into the mid to upper 50s during the day, dropping
into the upper 20s to lower 30s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Low-level stratus and fog continues to expand north and west
across much of western and central Nebraska. Impacts are likely
to be significant, with area terminals likely to see IFR/LIFR
conditions through the overnight period. Confidence in longer
duration impacts is higher at LBF than VTN but will maintain a
TEMPO covering LIFR visibility and CIGs for the latter with
prevailing at the former.

Conditions should improve after daybreak Saturday, albeit
slowly. Confidence in timing of improvement is low so
adjustments for later forecasts may be necessary. Expect a
return to VFR across northern Nebraska though low stratus likely
persists further south with redevelopment of fog likely by late
in the forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Saturday for
NEZ023>029-035>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion