996
FXUS63 KLBF 222328
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
  and evening across western Nebraska, with a second round of
  thunderstorms overnight across the region. The main concerns
  will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

- Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each evening
  this week.

- Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than average this
  week, with a potential return to more seasonal highs this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

An upper level shortwave tracks across north central Montana this
afternoon, pushing a surface cold front across the northern Plains
to the southeast. Ahead of the cold front, skies have been
continuing to clear this afternoon across western Nebraska, helping
build instability across the Panhandle into the western Sandhills.
CAM guidance suggests around 1,000-2,000 J/kg of CAPE should be
available this afternoon. However, the 18z LBF sounding shows
already shows 1,900 J/kg of surface based CAPE, suggesting CAMs may
be a bit slow on building CAPE across the Panhandle, and therefore
be on the low side for amounts. In addition to the building
instability, fairly robust deep layer shear is available for
convection, with around 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear across
the region. This will support organized convection this afternoon
and evening, with supercells being the primary convective mode.
Given the environment, large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to
be the main threat throughout the afternoon and evening, with
greatest severe potential in the Panhandle into the western
Sandhills. Late this evening, as the environment becomes less
supportive of supercells, expect storms to weaken, but rumbles of
thunder are likely to remain across portions of the region.

Overnight, as the cold front tracks further south, expect a second
round of thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front, tracking
across the region. Strong shear remains across the region, which may
help keep a more organized storm mode. Latest guidance suggest a
more multicellular mode, but there is some arguments to be made for
a more linear convective mode, as well. For the overnight
convection, believe damaging wind gusts will be the main severe
threat, but cannot rule out the potential for large hail as well,
especially in more intense cells.

As the cold front passes Tuesday morning, expect cooler temperatures
to remain in its wake, with highs again in the 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms may linger along the frontal boundary, mainly expected
to be along and east of Highway 83. However, the morning convection
combined with the frontal passage will greatly limit severe
potential during the afternoon hours for areas along and east of
Highway 83. While the environment looks less impressive east of
Highway 83, a few stronger storms may be possible Tuesday evening
across western and southwest Nebraska, again with damaging wind
gusts and hail being the main concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The upper level pattern remains fairly active through the end of the
week, with several shortwaves expected to track across the region.
This should provide a catalyst for several weaker disturbances,
bringing a near daily chance for showers and thunderstorms through
the end of the week. Though there is a daily risk for showers and
thunderstorms, the severe risk becomes more uncertain Wednesday into
late week. While we currently are outlooked for a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) for Wednesday, there is some uncertainty remaining in
where storms develop, largely driving what severe risks will be
possible. Much the same remains Thursday and Friday, with an
environment capable of producing convection, though question remains
in exactly where storms develop as well as where the stronger storm
environments develop. Will continue to monitor and refine the
forecasts in the coming days, as confidence increases in the finer
scale environment.

Cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms will continue to limit
daytime heating this week. In fact, highs are forecast to remain in
the 70s through Friday, which remains on the cooler side compared to
climatology. For reference, we typically see highs around 86 to 87
mid to late June, meaning our forecast highs are around 10 to 15
degrees cooler than average. By the weekend, cloud cover is expected
to become less prevalent as height rises track into the region. This
is expected to usher in a return of more seasonal highs, with highs
on Saturday and Sunday expected to return to the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Low stratus is expected to overspread all of western and north
central Nebraska tonight, leading to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs
and patchy fog. By early tomorrow morning, scattered
thunderstorm development is expected across the Sandhills and
central Nebraska. This will lead to periods of MVFR
visibilities through early tomorrow afternoon. Gradual
improvement back to low-end VFR CIGs is then expected late in
the valid period tomorrow afternoon.

Winds remain southerly tonight, at 10 to 15kts. Winds then
become northerly through the afternoon tomorrow as a front moves
through the area, also at 10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion