048
FXUS63 KLBF 101147
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
647 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Low to moderate confidence in severe thunderstorms this
evening and into the overnight hours with damaging winds and
hail being the main threats.
- Moderate confidence in below normal temperatures Thursday and
Thursday night.
- Cool temperatures for the weekend, espousal Sunday. Showers
will be possible Sunday as well. Temperatures begin to
moderate the first of next week with mainly dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Active weather will continue through the short term as showers and
thunderstorms are expected again on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Current guidance suggests the best instability will remain to the
east across eastern Nebraska. Still, some convection may slide into
portions of north central Nebraska. With lesser instability, though,
not anticipating widespread severe thunderstorms. However, some of
these storms will still be capable of producing some hail and gusty
winds. There is some concern that any convection may also not occur
until late in the evening and into the overnight hours. If this
happens, confidence in getting any severe storms is low as any
instability across our region will quickly diminish by late evening.
A stronger storm cannot be ruled out though and may still impact
portions of north central Nebraska.
By Thursday, the severe threat will have shifted even further to the
east and with surface high pressure building into the region, dry
conditions return to the region. Cold air advection behind the
departing system will push 850 mb temperatures in the 9 to 13 C
range into north central Nebraska. This will keep highs on the
cooler side of guidance (5 to 10 degrees below normal) with
forecasted temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s. A few
locations across far southwest Nebraska may rise into the low 80s,
but not expecting most locations to see above 80 on Thursday.
Dry conditions continue into Thursday night as high pressure firmly
settles over the region. Continued CAA into the region into Thursday
night will keep overnight lows nearly 10 degrees cooler than the
previous few days. Expect temperatures to drop into the mid 40s
Thursday night which are nearly 5 to 10 degrees below normals for
this time of year.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Westerly flow aloft will be in place across the area Friday. A subtle
disturbance within the flow will be located across the Rockies. As a
result, leeward troughing will deepen with the low-level flow
becoming southerly. This will help lift a warm front northward into
the area Friday night, with a brief surge of higher theta-e air
surging northward into southern NE. Scattered convection is possible
overnight as the more moist airmass moves northward and the low-
level jet increases. This will be short lived however, as both the
GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement, and bring settle cooler surface
high pressure into the area Saturday into Sunday.
Ensembles suggest Sunday could be showery and cool. As a strong
disturbance drops from the northern Rockies and then turns eastward
across the Plains. Official forecast is quite cool, with highs only
in the mid 60s across northwest Nebraska and lower 70s to the south
and east. Temperatures do moderate the first of next week beneath
a mostly dry northwest flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Mainly clear skies are expected during the day Wednesday with
gusty west to northwest winds at 10-20 kts. Winds decrease and
switch to the east-southeast this evening. A broken mid-level
cloud deck develops this evening. Isolated to widely scattered
TSTMS are possible late tonight. VFR conditions are expected to
prevail across all of the area through the period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion