946
FXUS63 KLBF 022022
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
tonight across the region, with the greatest risk across
northern Nebraska with a secondary, isolated threat over
southwestern Nebraska. The initial threat will be for large
hail, transitioning to a strong wind threat.
- A similar severe weather set up returns on Friday, with strong
to severe thunderstorms expected late Friday afternoon and
evening. The initial threat will be for large hail, with
another threat for damaging wind gusts as the night
progresses. At this time, the main severe threat is generally
north of highway 92 from Arthur to Broken Bow.
- A brief lull in thunderstorms is expected Sunday into Monday
with increasing chances for thunderstorms Monday night through
Thursday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
A highly amplified H5 pattern remained in place across
the CONUS today. High pressure was anchored over eastern Kentucky
and eastern Tennessee. Ridging extended north into the southern
Great Lakes. Further west, low pressure was located over
northwestern British Columbia wit a trough extending south-southeast
into southern California. Broad southwesterly flow extended east of
the trough axis, from the Pacific Coast, east across the Rockies to
the high plains of Kansas, Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Within
this southwest flow, several weak disturbances were noted. One over
northwestern Nebraska had lifted into South Dakota. This shortwave
was responsible for thunderstorms and strong winds across the
eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills overnight. A second
disturbance had tracked from south central into eastern portions of
Nebraska. A third disturbance had lifted from NW Iowa into
Minnesota. At the surface...weak low pressure was noted over
southwestern South Dakota. A surface trough extended south of this
feature, across the Nebraska Panhandle, then south along the
Colorado and Kansas borders. East-northeast of the low, a stationary
front extended along and just north of I-90 in South Dakota. South
of the front and east of the surface trough winds were southerly or
southeasterly. Skies were mostly clear and 2 PM CDT temperatures
ranged from 86 degrees at Broken Bow, to 88 degrees at North Platte,
Thedford, O`Neill and Valentine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Precipitation chances and severe thunderstorm potential are the
main forecast challenges over the next 36 hours. For tonight,
two areas of the forecast area will be monitored closely. One
area for initiation and a second for storms which may move into
the forecast area from the southwest. First off, area one is
over northeastern portions of the forecast area. A decent vort
max (which led to precipitation early this morning in the
panhandle) continues to track northeast into central South
Dakota. The latest CAMS initiate convection over central South
Dakota INVOF an outflow boundary which originated from decaying
convection over southern North Dakota. Expected convection over
central South Dakota then kicks out another outflow boundary
which drifts into northern Nebraska early evening. As a low
level jet intensifies over the eastern half of Nebraska this
evening, thunderstorms quickly develop and intensify. Timing of
this activity and the presence of decent DCAPE (~2000 J/KG in NE
Nebraska) this evening would facilitate strong wind gusts. One
caveat with this scenario is how far south the North Dakota
outflow boundary can make it before stalling. The latest CAMS
stall this feature near I90 which would favor northeastern areas
of the forecast area for storms. However, if this boundary
makes it farther south, convective initiation may be sooner and
farther south. Belief is that clearing in advance of the ND
outflow boundary, should lead to enough heating to slow, then
stall its progression along the I90 corridor. With this in mind,
will hit the northeastern CWA pretty hard on POPS tonight and
continue to message the wind potential. A second area of concern
for thunderstorms is over portions of SW Nebraska this evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to initiate late this afternoon,
over eastern Colorado/western Kansas INVOF a surface trough of
low pressure and a dryline. This activity will gradually move
into SW Nebraska mid to late evening with gusty winds being the
main severe threat. Convection will gradually track east of the
forecast area by daybreak Friday. Thunderstorm initiation Friday
will key on where any residual boundaries set up from tonight`s
convection. Looking at the latest NAM12 and 4km NAM both solns
have a convergent boundary across northwestern Nebraska Friday
afternoon. With afternoon heating and a very moist airmass in
place, SB CAPES reach 2500 to 5000 J/KG by 21z Friday. By
afternoon, a mid level disturbance will approach eastern Wyoming
and the Black Hills leading to convective initiation. As
activity transitions east late afternoon into the evening hours,
abundant low level moisture, deep layer shear of 35 to 45 KTS
and DCAPES around 2000 J/KG, will lead to a strong wind threat
across the area. ATTM the greatest hazard with the severe storms
is strong damaging winds. However any discrete cells early on
would be capable of large hail, particularly during the late
afternoon hours. Later in the evening, a broad area of
convection will ride east on the nose of a 50+kt low level jet.
As mentioned earlier, abundant DCAPE exists from central into
eastern Nebraska, facilitating a strong wind threat. Overnight,
convection will lift east and southeast of the area, forcing a
surface boundary into far southern Nebraska.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
A third round of convection is expected to fire INVOF an
outflow boundary Saturday. ATTM this boundary is progged to
reside over far southern Nebraska into northern Kansas. The
latest NBM initialized with higher pops over southern Nebraska
with this morning`s run and this seems reasonable. By Sunday,
mid level flow will weaken as the persistent ridge over the
southeastern CONUS weakens and retrogrades west into the SW
CONUS. After limited precipitation chances Sunday night into
Monday, mid level flow will increase in response to the ridge
building in the west. This increase in mid level flow, combined
with ample low level moisture, will lead to increased
precipitation chances toward the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026
Clouds will increase across western and north central Nebraska
late this afternoon into the evening hours with broken ceilings
ranging from 15000 to 20000 FT AGL. Isolated thunderstorms may
impact the KLBF terminal from 00z to 06z this evening, however
given expected coverage and low forecast confidence, will forgo
mention of tsra in the 18z TAF issuance. As for KVTN, the main
threat for thunderstorms should be east of the terminal. Skies
will remain broken around 20000 FT AGL at the KVTN terminal into
Friday morning with clearing expected at the KLBF terminal by
daybreak Friday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion