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FXUS63 KLBF 011732
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1132 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat elevated fire weather concerns today, especially
  west of Highway 83. Conditions could expand areawide Sunday.

- A weak disturbance could bring some very light freezing rain
  Friday to northern Nebraska.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist
  Saturday through the first of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A backdoor cold front has pushed southwest into north central
Nebraska as expected early this morning. The front has become nearly
stationary, and extends along a line from near Arnold to Thedford to
Valentine. An area of low cloudiness persists along and to the
northeast of the front. Along the leading edge of the lower cloud
cover, patchy dense fog has been observed. Will continue a Special
Weather Statement for this through sunrise this morning. As winds
increase from the south after sunrise, should see the fog thin and
lift. A rather difficult forecast in terms of how fast the lower
clouds will dissipate/move out of north central Nebraska later this
morning into this afternoon. However, as a weak area of low pressure
develops and tracks across the Sandhills though the afternoon, this
should help mix the milder Pacific airmass eastward and erode the
cloud cover. Somewhat elevated fire weather concerns develop this
afternoon, especially west of Highway 83. Highs will climb into the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Overall limiting factors will be the
marginally low humidity and northwest wind gusts generally remaining
20 mph or less.

The above mentioned front tries to push back to the southwest
tonight...as another area of surface low pressure develops across
southwest South Dakota. This feature will be ahead of a weak
southeastward moving shortwave within the northwest flow aloft
downstream of the Rockies ridge. Warm air advection will increase in
the mid-levels, with a mid-level cloud deck developing across the
Sandhills and northern Nebraska overnight. A warm front at the
surface will sharpen Friday morning as the surface low migrates to
southeast into the Sandhills by the afternoon. Mid-level
frontogenesis will increase across northern Nebraska to the
northeast of the front. Some light precipitation is possible as the
column saturates, with the precipitation most likely starting as
light freezing rain. Areas across Holt, Boyd and Wheeler counties
will struggle to reach the freezing mark...as the warm front will
likely remain just southwest of this area. Spotty light freezing
rain will be possible into the afternoon hours across these areas.
Overall expecting little or no ice accumulation, but even trace
amounts could cause slick conditions on untreated surfaces.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Ridging aloft remains across the Rockies Saturday, but begins to
quickly breakdown Saturday night into Sunday. As this occurs,
seeing a classic signal for elevated near-critical or even
potentially critical fire weather concerns for Sunday. Highs
Sunday continue to trend warmer, now well into the 60s for areas
to the west of Highway 183. Humidity as low as 20-25% along with
gusty west to northwest winds develop along and west of Highway
83 by afternoon. This could set the stage for the potentially
critical conditions and will continue to monitor.


Otherwise, the period continues to look dry, with above normal
temperatures forecast right though Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the bulk of the forecast
period with degraded conditions likely during the morning
Friday.

High clouds continue to stream west to east across the region
with bases located above 20kft AGL. These should gradually lower
through the daytime, falling below 10kft AGL for area terminals
shortly after Midnight tonight. Winds may become breezy out of
the northwest for northern Nebraska to include the VTN terminal
with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range. Winds flip more southerly
late in the period as low-end VFR and MVFR CIGs arrive. For
northern Nebraska, light precipitation should move in sometime
late morning. Have included a PROB30 to account for this at VTN
where ptype, though heavily dependent on precise temperatures,
may fall as a wintry mix.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion