861
FXUS63 KLBF 250753
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
253 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Memorial Day, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
possible late afternoon southwest and north central, with a 20
to 30 percent in the evening. Gusty winds appear to be the
main threat, although small hail and very localized heavy rain
possible.
- Near daily precipitation chances expected mid week into the
weekend. Thunderstorms may bring potential for heavy rainfall,
though exact location of storms remains uncertain.
- After warm temperatures to start the week, more seasonal
temperatures are expected across the region mid week into the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Memorial Day, very warm with highs 90 to 95. An upper trough will
extend from the Pacific Northwest into the Desert Southwest.
Meanwhile an upper ridge axis will extend from the western Dakotas
through eastern Kansas into eastern Texas. While the upper flow will
southwesterly, it will be fairly weak. 500mb winds will only be near
20kts, as will 0-6km shear values. Surface low pressure will deepen
across Wyoming and Colorado into the Nebraska panhandle as southerly
winds increase to 10 to 20 mph across southwest into central
Nebraska. Dewpoints will be higher in the 50s across the southwest
and the eastern half of north central Nebraska, along with MUCAPEs
from 1500-2500 J/kg by late afternoon. The convective temperature
should be reached and widely scattered showers and storms should
develop by late afternoon, becoming scattered in the evening as a
low level jet increases after 00Z. With an inverted-V sounding,
gusty winds look to be the main threat, though small is possible in
the strongest storms. Though very localized, heavy rainfall is also
possible, with a slow storm motion.
Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon across the northwest
Sandhills, as warm temperatures in the low 90s combine with very dry
air and push humidity into the middle to upper teens. Winds again
look to be the limiting factor, southerly at 5 to 15 mph with
occasional gusts to 20 mph.
Any showers or storms should end by midnight, with partly cloudy
skies overnight. Lows 55 to 60.
Upper ridging will suppress any shower development on Tuesday,
although an upper trough will lift into Colorado, eastern New Mexico
and the Texas Panhandle. The surface pressure gradient will tighten
up, with southerly winds 25 to 35 mph. Gusts to 40 mph possible
across the western Sandhills. A very warm day again, with highs 85
to 90.
Near-critical fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon, as warm
temperatures 85 to 90 combine with dry air and push humidity down
into the middle 20s. Southerly winds 25 to 35 mph, with gust to 40
mph possible in the west could promote large fire growth, even
though some green up exists.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
By mid week, an Omega blocking pattern is expected to be present
across the United States, with the upper level low remaining over
southern California and Nevada. With this set up, there is a strong
signal for deep moisture advection off the Gulf through multiple
layers of the environment. As the upper level low sits across the
southwest, a few shortwaves are expected to track through the flow,
with associated surface systems expected to bring chances of
precipitation across the region. In fact, there are near daily
chances for precipitation from mid week into the weekend. While
ensemble guidance further builds confidence in this signal, showing
near daily precipitation chances, what remains more uncertain is
exactly where precipitation will develop. Given the weak flow aloft
across most of the region, if thunderstorms develop, expect a slower
storm movement, which may allow for longer duration rain showers.
However, with the somewhat weaker forcing, showers and storms could
be fairly scattered, bringing higher rain totals to areas with
storms, and lower amounts outside of thunderstorm areas.
Along with near daily precipitation chances, gusty conditions are
possible each day, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible each day. Of
note, Wednesday appears to the the windiest day, with gusts up to 40
mph possible across the Panhandle and western Sandhills. Though
conditions are expected to be breezy, with the better moisture
return, expecting that humidity values remain in the 40 percent
range, which should limit fire weather concerns. Additionally,
temperatures are expected to be more in line with seasonal
temperatures, which for late May are generally in the upper 70s
across the region. The pattern remains much the same for the
weekend, even though the upper level low is expected to lift north,
keeping precipitation chances and seasonal temperatures through the
end of the month.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska through the effective TAF period. Overnight, winds
remain mostly light and variable, with a batch of mid to high cloud
cover tracking across western Nebraska. However, strong winds aloft
are expected along and south of a KLBF to KONL line, bringing LLWS
concerns through the morning. By morning, light westerly winds are
expected across most of the region, with a shift to southerly winds
by the late morning into the afternoon. Slight chances of showers
and thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into the evening,
though confidence on precipitation at area terminals is low at this
time, so will omit from TAFs for now.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion