005
FXUS63 KLBF 151149
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
649 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns on Friday

- Strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening

- Additional rain and thunderstorms are expected Sunday (50-80%)
  and Monday (60-90%), with some severe potential possible,
  before rain potential wanes for Tuesday through the rest of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Upper level flow turns more zonal Friday and another day of
temperatures above normal with highs in the 80s to low 90s. There
will be some elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Friday
afternoon. At this time fire weather concerns should remain below
RFW criteria. Although min RH will be around 9 to 13 percent across
the Sandhills into western and southwest Nebraska, winds are
expected to remain mostly light. The exception is across portions of
western Nebraska where bufkit soundings suggest slightly stronger
winds, with gusts up to 25 mph or greater. The stronger winds will
be "out of sync" however with the lowest min RH and winds are
expected to diminish by early afternoon.

There may be a chance for an isolated thunderstorm late Friday
afternoon and evening. Confidence however is very low in seeing any
shower/thunderstorm activity for the area, as the greater
environment looks to remain to the east of the area. Have kept
limited PoPs around 15 percent, the latest CAM models have backed
off of storm development for the LBF CWA, but continue to show a
signal for storm development just to the east of the area where the
boundary is expected to remain. However, given the uncertainty
decided to leave the 15 percent pops for parts of the eastern
portion of the CWA. Another main concern is moisture return for
tomorrow is low across much of western and north central Nebraska
with dew points less than 40 degrees. If a storm were to develop,
the main concern would be strong winds and hail.

Concern then turns to Saturday, as a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of
severe weather is expected. Flow will become more southwesterly and
will see moisture increase during the day. Dew points will reach the
upper 40s to 50s across portions of southwest Nebraska into the
southern Sandhills. MU CAPE values will reach near 1000 to 1800 J/kg
by 18z Saturday. The environment will be favorable for supercells as
0 to 6 km shear values will be around 40 to 45 kts and lapse rates
steepen by mid afternoon through the evening for most of western and
north central Nebraska. The main hazards with storm development will
be strong winds, large hail and can`t rule out a tornado.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Saturday Night...the latter half of Saturday will potentially
contain a few rounds of thunderstorms. The first, lower
confidence event, would occur along the warm front set to
stretch from near LBF to ODX to TQE. This activity, dependent on
location relative to this frontal boundary, would likely be
capable of all severe hazards. Later in the evening, a second
round will likely develop to the west within moist upslope flow
off the Front Range in the vicinity of the I-25 corridor and
more local orographic features. This potential is highlighted
well by recent NAM/ECWMF/SREF guidance. While somewhat removed
from the higher instability of the open warm sector further
east, similar low-level moisture with 0-1km mixing ratios
exceeding 9 g/kg will nose into northeast Colorado. This influx
of richer moisture coincident with larger synoptic lift via the
approaching troughing will lead to more expansive thunderstorm
development. Instability will remain strong with MUCAPE values
exceeding 2000 j/kg and easterly surface flow beneath
moderately strong mid-level flow will promote strong deep-layer
shear along a convectively reinforced east-west density
boundary. How far south this boundary sinks into southwest
Nebraska is somewhat in question but overall thinking is it
should settle south closer to the NE/KS border. This suggests a
fairly stable boundary layer locally with MU parcels rooted in
the h8 to h7 layer. With strong shear and long/straight
hodographs, splitting elevated supercells appear the favored
storm mode. This suggests large hail (primary) with strong
outflow winds (secondary) the main concerns. The latest SPC Day
2 Outlook maintains a Slight Risk for much of the area while
introducing significant hatching for both (2"+ diameter hail and
80+ mph gusts) and see little reason to stray from this
thought. While non-zero, the tornado threat is limited to 2% and
likely favors early daytime activity that is more apt to being
surface based. Still though, favorable 0-3km shear vectors
favorably oriented with any potential MCS will support brief
QLCS tornadoes. With anomalous moisture quality in place prior
to storm development, heavy rainfall will be possible with
activity. Of course with recent drought conditions any rainfall
is certainly welcome, but, some extended CAM guidance hints at
0.50"/hour rates or greater in spots. This may lead to some
ponding water and visibility issues within the heavier downpours
but widespread hydro issues are not anticipated. Thunderstorms
should remain fairly progressive largely due 30+ knots of
steering flow. Forecast soundings show anticipated storm motion
of similar magnitude and this will further limit any prolonged
heavy rain threat. NBM probabilities show reasonably high
confidence (50-60%) in seeing rainfall amounts exceed 0.25" but
discrepancies in placement between EPS/GEFS solutions and the
splotchy nature of the majority of CAM solutions keeps
confidence in precise locations and rainfall amounts limited at
this time. Activity should depart to the east after Midnight.

Sunday/Sunday Night...another shortwave impulse appears likely to
eject through northeast Colorado ahead of the parent trough which
appears likely to slowly pivot through the Great Basin. Secondary
low pressure will form over central Colorado with pressure falls
extending east towards the High Plains of western Nebraska and
Kansas. As a northern low pressure center crosses the Dakotas, a
cool front will dive south and enter our western zones early in the
day. This will further define a converging line stretching somewhere
from southwest through north central Nebraska. Increasing lift at
the surface as the boundary is pinched should lead to increasing
thunderstorm potential by late afternoon/evening. Confidence in
precisely where this boundary sets up is limited and the
implications on the forecast for the day is fairly large. Behind
this boundary, in northwesterly flow, temperatures are a large
uncertainty with deterministic solutions showing nearly 10-15F
differences in afternoon high temperature guidance. Locales in
closer proximity to this boundary (our eastern zones) may still
see a severe weather threat realized with highs closer to the
80s and lower 90s, but cooler air infiltrating our western
zones may hinder this threat somewhat. Confidence in how things
precisely play out remains low but folks across central and
north central Nebraska should remain aware of a threat for
severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and well into the evening.

Monday/Monday Night...the main trough is expected to eject onto the
Plains during the day with the strongest upper-level dynamics likely
crossing western Nebraska. This should lead to fairly expansive rain
and thunderstorm potential for the Panhandle into the western
Sandhills. Inherited model blend PoPs shows 70%+ west of a Big
Springs to Ainsworth line and this lines up reasonable well with
EPS/GEFS probability to exceed 0.50" for the calendar day (40%+/20%+
respectively). While temperatures will certainly be much cooler,
similarly cooler temperatures aloft will likely be enough to promote
some instability and a continuation of thunderstorm potential. While
a rogue stronger storm cannot be ruled out, the greater threat will
remain across eastern Nebraska where a greater overlap of strong
instability (MUCAPE > 3500 j/kg) and strong deep-layer shear vectors
are more favorably oriented across the warm-sector. The current
forecast calls for upper 40s in the northwest but closer to middle
70s in the southeast. Any change in frontal boundary progression,
whether faster or slower, could lead to fairly significant changes
to the temperature outlook so folks are advised to continue
monitoring later forecasts for up-to-date information. Temperatures
within moderately strong cold air advection are likely to fall below
the freezing mark for many locations west of Highway 83. As
precipitation lingers into early Tuesday, some locations may see a
short changeover to at least a rain/snow mix. Most if not all
precipitation should depart to the north by daybreak with little if
any wintry impacts.

Tuesday and beyond...troughing will lift north and east through the
upper Midwest and into southeastern Canada. Heights will begin to
rise by midweek as weak ridging forms over the Gulf into central
Mexico. The extended pattern remains fairly convoluted with
deterministics showing sizable variability for the Central CONUS.
Overall though, relative zonal flow appears likely to become
established with a lack of any more noteworthy systems traversing
the area. This supports moderating temperatures and largely dry
conditions. While periodic low-end precipitation chances may dot the
forecast, extended ensemble guidance remains fairly pessimistic on
seeing a more significant event with day-to-day probabilities of
realizing 0.01" or more QPF limited to 25% or less. EPS/GEFS
solutions are fairly noisy but each show about 33-50% of their
individual members showing some quantity of moisture any one day in
the mid-range. Even so, mean output from each solution is quite low
so the prospect for widespread beneficial rainfall appears limited
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Expect VFR conditions through the forecast period.

Winds will favor the northwest early with speeds potentially
approaching 20 knots across southwest Nebraska including the LBF
airspace. Towards late afternoon, clouds should increase but
safely remain at or above 12kft AGL. Winds will veer to easterly
by late in the period as speeds fall to less than 10 knots for
all area terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion