753
FXUS63 KLBF 021736
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1136 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wintry precipitation overspreads north central Nebraska this
morning and persists into this evening. Sleet, freezing rain,
and light snow could lead to hazardous travel conditions.
- Dry conditions return for this weekend and continue into next
week, along with well above average temperatures (highs in
50s to 60s).
- The combination dry conditions, near record temperatures, and
gusty west winds could lead to increasing fire weather
concerns Sunday afternoon across much of western Nebraska.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
Included Custer and Blaine Counties in the Winter Weather
Advisory until 9 pm CST. Light freezing rain may mix with sleet
or light snow this afternoon, creating slick conditions on
elevated or untreated roads.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
Currently, a weak surface low is located across northeastern
Wyoming, with a warm front extending southeast into the western
Nebraska Panhandle. Ahead of this warm front, light rain is
spreading into portions of the Sandhills. Aloft, a shortwave trough
is crossing the Rockies, with broad zonal flow across the area ahead
of this shortwave. A shallow cold airmass is in place across north
central Nebraska, with patchy fog being reported north of HWY 2 and
east of HWY 83.
For today, expect the aforementioned surface low to eject
southeast out of Wyoming this morning and into western Nebraska
this afternoon. As this occurs, the warm front will lift
northeast into the Sandhills, with its eastward progression
limited to around the HWY 183 corridor. Ongoing light
precipitation will continue to spread northeast in advance of
this warm front, as low level isentropic ascent increases with
the approach of the front. Thus far, this precipitation has
fallen in areas well above freezing, leading to little impact to
travel. However, as this precipitation spreads into north
central Nebraska later this morning, it will overspread a
shallow, cold airmass. A prevalent warm nose aloft, as indicated
by forecast soundings, lends some uncertainty to p-type. That
said, believe a period of freezing drizzle or rain is most
likely at onset. This is due to enough warm air aloft to fully
melt hydrometeors, and the low level cold airmass remaining just
shallow enough to limit refreezing. Its in this window (into
this afternoon) where the threat for light icing will maximize
across portions of north central Nebraska. Guidance has begun to
come better agreement with respect to this, with a northwest to
southeast oriented corridor of ice accretions of ~0.05-0.10".
The area of greatest risk for this is east of roughly a
Valentine to Broken Bow line. It is here where hazardous travel
conditions are expected to develop today, and have issued a
Winter Weather Advisory to address this threat. Persistent low-
level ascent will gradually cool the vertical column with time,
and lead to more of a mix/changeover of freezing rain, sleet,
and light snow into this afternoon. Temperatures look to climb
very little and largely remain steady across north central
Nebraska this afternoon, keeping highs below freezing and keep a
threat for icy conditions going. The surface low exits off to
the southeast of the area by this evening, with any
precipitation quickly ending from west to east shortly after
sunset.
Further west today, westerly flow will establish behind the warm
front, and lead to temperatures quickly climbing this afternoon.
This will promote a rather wide range in highs today, with highs
near 60s in southwest Nebraska to the upper 20s in north central
Nebraska. Winds strengthen from the west-northwest near and west of
HWY 61 this afternoon, with gusts approaching 25-30 miles per hour.
Heights quickly rise aloft behind the departing shortwave into
Saturday, leading to increasing subsidence aloft and skies clearing
Saturday morning. Weak westerly downslope flow establishes across
the area, bringing a return of above average highs to the entire
area, in the 40s (north central Nebraska) to low 60s (southwest
Nebraska). An upper ridge begins to amplify across the Rockies,
bringing a return of dry conditions as we head into the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
The upper ridge axis begins to translate overhead as we head into
Sunday, with southwest flow establishing aloft by Sunday afternoon.
Strengthening low level warm advection boosts H85 temps above the
90th percentile, and all signs point to a very mild day. The current
forecast remains in line with NBM guidance, which is on the low side
of the deterministic guidance suite (much like the stretch of record
highs in late December). In fact, 50th percentile guidance is ~3-5F
warmer across much of the area. This suggests highs might be a few
degrees too low, and this will have impacts on fire weather
concerns. As these near record temperatures combine with dry air and
strengthening west winds, a period of near-critical fire conditions
may develop Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds look to occur
across western Nebraska, and this is where fire concerns will likely
be greatest.
Benign weather conditions look to persist as we head into next week,
with broad zonal flow establishing aloft. This promotes persistent
low level downslope flow across the area, and should keep highs
above average each day as we head into next week. A lack of upper
level shortwaves in this zonal flow also points to continued dry
conditions, with little in the way of precipitation chances to speak
of. This could change as we head into late week, as a deeper system
begins to eject out of the Rockies. Confidence in this remains low
for now, and trends will continue to be monitored for our next shot
at precipitation locally.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026
A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow is also possible
across north central and central Nebraska today, with periods
of MVFR/IFR visibilities. Precipitation ends by this evening.
A front will bisect the area this afternoon, with southerly
winds east of HWY 83 at 5 to 10kts. West of HWY 83, west-
northwest winds are expected, with gusts of 20 to 25kts this
afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
NEZ006>010-026>029-038.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion