635
FXUS63 KLBF 301753
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Marginal Risks for severe weather (level 1 of 5) remain in
place for each afternoon/evening Sunday and Monday. The
primary concern each day will be damaging wind gusts.
- Precipitation chances begin to decrease after Tuesday night,
with little to no precipitation expected mid week into the
weekend.
- Upper level ridging will also help keep temperatures above
average into the weekend, with highs mostly in the upper 80s
to mid 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Early this morning, multiple residual boundaries from earlier
convection were seen across much of western and central Nebraska.
The most notable was stretching from southwest Nebraska up through
south central Nebraska. Increasing convergence along this feature
was promoting scattered convection. Motions largely parallel to this
boundary was allowing for training storms and some locally heavy
rainfall. While rain rates have largely fallen short of 0.50"/hour,
prolonged impacts from these thunderstorms was leading to some 1.00"
rainfall amounts. This may continue for another few hours for mainly
central Nebraska but severe weather nor any flooding concerns are
expected.
Sunday/Sunday Night...any lingering precipitation should depart the
local area prior to dawn. This lingering outflow boundary will stall
near a MCK to LXN to ODX line and divide much warmer air in
southwesterly low-level flow from the greater humidity/weaker mixing
environment to the east. With expected highs in the low to middle
90s, the drier air will help quell any heat concerns with heat
indices likely to fall short of the ambient air temperatures in the
local area. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will allow enhanced
mid-level flow will remain in place for much of the region. More
pronounced shortwave troughing will lift out of the Pacific
Northwest through the day and cross into southern Canada late. While
upper-level dynamics will remain well north of the area, enough mid-
level convergence should introduce some increasing PoPs later in the
day that originates from west of the Continental Divide. Moderate h5
flow will again support adequate deep-layer shear for storm
organization. Instability will be fairly meager, largely due to
marginal mid-level lapse rates, but damaging wind gusts appear
possible with any high based convection that can sustain itself off
the higher terrain. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for our western zones and feel this is adequate
given low confidence in storm intensity. Relied on HREF guidance for
PoPs which peaks around 30% in far southwest Nebraska with a dry
forecast for areas north of Highway 2. Any thunderstorm threat
should depart by later Sunday night into Monday morning.
Monday/Monday Night...strong low pressure aloft will cross southern
Canada with a strong mid-level speed max on the southern periphery
of the upper-level low. This will continue to promote adequate winds
aloft to allow sufficient deep-layer shear for a strong to severe
thunderstorm threat. Broad, low-amplitude troughing will extend
south through the Dakotas as surface high pressure settles into
South Dakota by early afternoon. Southerly return flow will develop
late in the day as a result which will lead to modest moisture
advection into central Nebraska heading into the evening. Afternoon
highs will see a slight decrease from Sunday, with middle 80s to
lower 90s expected across the area. Greater upper-level support will
arrive late Monday night as longwave troughing approaches the West
Coast and flow amplifies across the central and southern Rockies.
Height falls attendant to a shortwave disturbance entering Wyoming
will work in towards Midnight and this aligns well with latest NAM12
solution depicting fairly expansive precipitation moving in from the
southwest after Midnight. NBM probabilities match this thinking with
12-hour probability for exceeding 0.25" QPF peaking in the 06-18z
window Tuesday at or around 25-30% for localized areas west of
Highway 83. While details are far from certain, some potential
exists for some more widespread wetting rainfall amounts but folks
should monitor later forecasts for up-to-date thinking as greater
signals appear to remain west of the forecast area. Coincident with
the passing shortwave trough axis, precipitation should wane by
daybreak and lift up into South Dakota by early in the day on
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
An upper level shortwave lifts north on Tuesday, which should allow
the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to continue through the
morning and into the afternoon. As the upper level shortwave tracks
north, also expect a speed max to track through the upper level flow
supporting stronger deep layer shear across portions of the region.
However, there still remains some uncertainty in how much CAPE will
be available given the overnight convection. With this uncertainty,
the severe weather risk also remains uncertain, but will continue to
keep an eye on forecast trends for Tuesday, especially how the
mesoscale environment evolves.
By Wednesday, upper level ridging is expected to amplify across the
region, which should limit precipitation chances through the end of
the week and into the weekend. In fact, precipitation chances remain
relatively sparse outside of a slight chance of showers Wednesday
night. Latest ensemble guidance continues to agree with this trend,
keeping chances for one tenth of an inch of rain or greater at less
than 20 percent into the weekend. This upper level ridging will also
help keep temperatures above average through the weekend, with highs
mostly in the upper 80s to mid 90s. For reference, our typical highs
are around 85 degrees, decreasing to 84 degrees by the weekend. The
current forecast highs remain around the 75th to 90th percentile
compared to local climatology.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast
Colorado this afternoon. These are forecasted to move into
southwest Nebraska this evening with gusty winds. May need to
add a TEMPO group at LBF for thunderstorms this evening, but
confidence not high enough at this time. Expect broken mid and
high level cloudiness and VFR to prevail.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion