732
FXUS63 KLBF 252026
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
326 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditions will be wet across the forecast area with precipitation
  likely tonight into Monday.

- Mainly drier conditions are expected Monday night through
  Thursday night with only minor chances for precipitation in
  eastern areas Tuesday night.

- The threat for precipitation will increase Friday into next
  weekend with high temperatures Wednesday through Friday
  generally in the 60s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A highly amplified pattern continued this morning across the
CONUS and Canada. High pressure was located over the
northwestern gulf. Ridging extended north-northeast of this
feature into lower Michigan. East of this feature, a trough of
low pressure was present over the northwestern Bahamas into
central Cuba. West of the ridge, closed low pressure was located
over central Utah with a trough extending south into southern
Arizona. Upstream of this feature was a closed low just off the
coast of Washington State. Current WV imagery this afternoon
indicates a broad plume of Pacific moisture from Mexico north
into the high plains of New Mexico, west Texas and the central
high plains of Colorado western Kansas and western Nebraska. At
the surface this afternoon...a stationary front was situated
from central Iowa into far southeastern Nebraska and south
central Kansas. This front was sandwiched between high pressure
over the Ohio Valley and high pressure over the Canadian
Prairie. A broad area of showers was situated along highway 83
this afternoon, with additional activity noted over western
Kansas. Skies were cloudy and temperatures as of 2 PM CDT,
ranged from 40 degrees at Gordon to 46 degrees at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Upper level low pressure will track from southwestern Wyoming
into far northwestern South Dakota Tonight through Monday.
Southeast of this low`s track tonight, broad isentropic lift
across the entire forecast area will develop and continue
through the morning hours on Monday. This lift will gradually
shift north and northeast Monday afternoon, so by 00z Tuesday,
isentropic upglide will be confined to extreme northeastern
portions of the forecast area. This lift will quickly push east
overnight Monday night with dry conditions expected after Monday
evening in the northeast.

With respect to precipitation amounts across the area. Looking at
the latest NBM ensembles probabilities for 24 hour QPF ending at 7
PM CT Monday evening there is a 100 percent chance of at least a
quarter inch of QPF across the entire forecast area. When the
threshold is increased to 0.50", the probability of at least that
amount is above 80 percent north and east of a line from Oshkosh to
Hayes Center. When the threshold is increased to 1.00" the
probability of reaching that amount is 80% or better east of a Brady
to Valentine line. With the probabilistic numbers being this high,
widespread categorical pops as initialized in the NBM remain on
track.

With respect to lows tonight and Monday night: The latest NBM this
morning continued to be well below the MET and MAV guidance for
lows. With widespread cloud cover expected tonight, feel
temperatures will be warmer than the NBM initialization and utilized
a 50/50 mix of NBM and MAV guidance for lows tonight. With this
change, upper 20s lows were eliminated from western areas tonight.
This will figure in the PTYPE forecast and more on that below. For
Monday night, lows were also trended upward from the NBM. Light
winds, weak high pressure and a saturated boundary layer indicates
good potential for fog Monday night. Low ceilings and fog are
already indicated in the NAM12 (low ceilings) and 12z HRRR (Fog).
Lows Monday night reflect a blend of MAV and NBM guidance.

As mentioned above, lows were trended warmer tonight. Even with
boost in lows, temperatures briefly reach the lower 30s over the
northwestern forecast area early Monday morning. After an extensive
look at model forecast soundings, a mix of rain or snow cannot be
ruled out, especially over northern Sheridan and far northwestern
Cherry County. In these areas, inserted a rain snow mix for a couple
of hours Monday morning. With a lack of dry air with this system,
feel near surface wet bulb zeros will remain in the lower to middle
30s overnight. If we see a brief total changeover to all snow, warm
ground conditions (4" soil temps this morning were around 50 degrees
in northern Sheridan County) should confine any light accumulations
to grassy surfaces. Will word the forecast little or no accumulation
and am expecting any snow will melt off by midday. Will pass on my
concerns to the evening shift and have them monitor temperature
trends. If we do trend cooler, snow amounts may need to be
increased.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

On the heels of the exiting system Monday, a northern stream
disturbance will pass to the north of the forecast area over the
Dakotas. A second disturbance will track from Kansas into SE
Nebraska. This will bring a chance of showers to far
southeastern portions of the forecast area Tuesday evening.
Clouds and fog are anticipated Tuesday morning across the area.
By afternoon locations in the western portion of the forecast
area will see some west or southwest winds which will lead to
clearing skies Tuesday afternoon. Further east, skies should
remain mostly cloudy and will have an impact on highs. Readings
will range from the upper 50s over eastern portions of the
forecast area with highs in the middle 60s in the west and
northwest. A low amplitude pattern will commence across the
western CONUS midweek. This will lead to mainly dry conditions
and warmer than normal temperatures for the high plains. The
pattern will begin to amplify Thursday night into Friday as low
pressure deepens over the Pacific NW. Downstream of this
feature, a southern stream disturbance will lift from the SW
CONUS into the southern plains. As this system crosses into
Kansas and Oklahoma Friday, there will be an increased threat
for precipitation mainly over the eastern half of Nebraska.
Temperatures will be mild for Wednesday through Sunday with
highs generally in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Expect IFR ceilings at both terminals over the next 24 hours
with LIFR conditions expected at the KLBF terminal through 16z
Monday and after 03z Monday for the KVTN terminal. Periods of
rain showers will impact both terminals over the next 24 hours.
Visibilities may fall off to 1 to 3 miles at the KVTN terminal
overnight tonight into Monday morning. At the KLBF terminal,
visibilities as low as 5SM are anticipated. Winds will be from
the northeast or east at around 10 KTS over the next 24 hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion