802
FXUS63 KLBF 231149
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
549 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday.

- A passing cool front Wednesday will bring the potential for
  measurable rain (20-50%) across northern Nebraska.

- After today, expect mainly above normal temperatures through
  Friday. Fire weather concerns will increase Tuesday, with the
  greatest concerns Thursday and Friday.

- Much cooler for Saturday and Sunday with seasonal to below
  normal temperatures forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remains in place across the western
US through Tuesday night. This will keep conditions dry and allow
for warming temperatures to continue. Temperatures begin to return
to near normals today as warm air advection begins to push into
western Nebraska. Here, mainly west of US-83, expect highs to rise
into the mid 50s. Further to the east, lingering cold air advection
combined with melting snow will limit temperatures to the mid 30s.
By Tuesday, warm air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the
8 to 12 C range into Nebraska. This will result in widespread highs
in the mid 50s into the low to mid 60s across southwest Nebraska.
There is some concern that as a weak trough slides across the
northern Plains Tuesday afternoon, some colder air will filter into
the region by the afternoon. This may limit highs on Tuesday across
northern Nebraska into the upper 40s to low 50s. While confidence is
low in this scenario, have made some minor adjustments to the going
forecast to start to reflect the potential cooler air. For lows,
temperatures return to above normal(mid teens) dropping only into
the mid to upper 20s through Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A robust, mid level disturbance will ride southeast off of a
low amplitude ridge Wednesday. As this feature tracks from
northern Montana into northeastern Wyoming during the day
Wednesday, surface cyclogenesis will take place over
northwestern Nebraska. Extending east and west of the low will
be a frontal boundary with the arctic air mass approximately 100
to 200 miles north of the front. South of the front, west winds
and a very warm airmass over the front ranges of southeastern
Wyoming and Colorado, will transition east Wednesday. The
combination of gusty west winds, strong downslope and forecast
H85 temps of 3 in the northeast to 14C in the SW across the
area, will lead to highs in the lower 50s in the northeast, to
around 70 in SW Nebraska. Gusty winds, the strongest of which
will reside across the western Sandhills into SW Nebraska may
approach 45 MPH during the afternoon Wednesday. ATTM, min RH in
these areas is around 25 percent. This, combined with gusty
winds Wednesday afternoon will lead to elevated and even near
critical fire weather concerns in these areas. The front will
track through far northern Nebraska early afternoon, passing
through the forecast area by 00z Thursday. Behind the front,
weak mid level forcing will lead to a minor threat for
precipitation across the area. ATTM, the best forcing resides
over northern into eastern portions of the forecast area where
the NBM operational soln initialized with a broad area of 30 to
50% POPS north of a line from North Platte to Oshkosh. This
seems reasonable given the latest deterministic GFS and NAM
solns and no changes are planned to these NBM POPS. By no means
will this be a drought buster as the latest NBM ensembles
indicate only a 40 percent chance of QPF>0.05 inches north of a
line from Broken Bow to Merriman. When this threshold is
increased to 0.10 inches, the probability of exceedance falls to
less than 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday...A clipper system will slide southeast across
southern Canada on Thursday forcing a warm front east across the
forecast area. Highs will reach into the upper 50s and lower 60s
across the area. Westerly winds will increase behind the warm front
Thursday afternoon and may gust 15 to 25 MPH in the eastern
Panhandle and far SW Nebraska late in the day. Min RH in these areas
will reach 20 to 25 percent in the afternoon leading to elevated
fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Friday will see even
warmer temperatures across the forecast area ahead of an approaching
arctic front. With forecast highs running 5 to 10 degrees warmer,
min RH of 15 to 20 percent across the forecast area and wind gust
potential of 25 to 35 MPH, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions appear possible west of highway 83.

Saturday and Sunday...For the past couple of nights the
deterministic EC and Canadian solns have pushed a strong arctic cold
front through the forecast area Friday night with the GFS being a
hold out. With tonight`s GFS run, it is now advertising a decent
arctic arctic cold frontal passage Friday night. The NBM tonight
initialized with highs in the 30s and 40s for Saturday and Sunday
and this is a good starting point. However with the operational NBM
forecast now well above the median highs of the ensembles, its new
forecast for highs appears to be on the high side of the envelop.
Looking at the H85 temps behind the front Saturday, 20s and 30s may
be more realistic for highs both days which has begun to show up in
the EC statistical guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Over the next 24 hours mainly scattered high cloudiness is
expected across western and north central Nebraska with ceilings
ranging from 20000 to 25000 FT AGL. There will be a threat for
low level wind shear at both terminals after 06z Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion