362
FXUS63 KLBF 232040
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bouts of rain and thunderstorms, including the threat for
  heavy rainfall, will dominate the forecast through Friday
  Night with a high likelihood (60-90%) of rainfall exceeding
  one inch southeast of an Ogallala to Atkinson line.

- A brief return of warmer and drier weather is likely this
  weekend with daytime highs returning to the 70s to lower 80s,
  or 5-10F above normal for late September.

- Active weather resumes next week with expansive Likely
  categorical (55%+) PoPs for much of western and central
  Nebraska Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Early this afternoon, low stratus across the area was gradually
eroding but stopping short of leaving anything but partly cloudy
skies. This has effectively stunted the afternoon warmup with highs
holding in the lower 60s for north central Nebraska to the middle
and upper 70s for our west and southwest areas. Winds have remained
gusty with peak speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range out of the south.

For tonight, expect increasing PoPs as a passing shortwave in tandem
with an increasing LLJ drives increasing lift. Isentropic lift
centered around the 300K surface with moisture advection will lead
to isolated convection by late this afternoon, increasing to
scattered to widespread activity through the evening. Modest
instability and weak shear should preclude a strong to severe
thunderstorm threat, however, anomalous precipitable water values
with nearly 1.50" observed on the Wednesday midday RAOB suggests a
heavy rain potential. CAM output supports this with pockets of
1"/hour rain rates in the heavier cores, particularly in the
afternoon/evening as instability remains at its highest. With loss
of greater instability into the overnight, the concentration of
heavier rain cores decreases. HREF probability-matched mean output
shows some of the heaviest QPF between 21z and 03z (3pm to 9pm MDT)
but a noticable decrease thereafter. Still though, overnight
rainfall amounts could top out at 0.50" or higher in localized
areas. Lows tonight were boosted somewhat. Given afternoon dew
points already in the middle to upper 50s and a likely influx of
moisture coincident with increased low-level clouds/rain over the
next 6 to 12 hours, values were increased to the upper 50s to lower
60s. This aligns with consecutive runs of the HRRR.

Thursday/Thursday Night...a frontal boundary will settle south and
arrive in northwestern zones by early in the day. Shortwave ridging
will arrive into the central Rockies by midday with subtle height
rises as a result. Behind departing high pressure to the east, south
to southwesterly flow will persist and feed into the boundary over
western Nebraska. This should allow for renwed rain and thunderstorm
development during the day and evening. Recent trends have been to
push this focus south slightly and invading dry air into our
northwestern zones will erode much of the QPF as a result. Forecast
PoPs were cleaned up a bit as a result, with slight decreases
northwest and increases further south and east. Where precipitation
is likely to be most persistent, afternoon highs will struggle to
climb out of the 60s with warmer 70s further north and west. Leaned
on NAM guidance for QPF, which favors this southward trend and the
result is 0.50" or greater southeast of an Imperial to Brewster to
Chambers line. Again, with limited instability and poor shear, no
severe weather is expected. Lows Thursday night will be cooler with
widespread 50s and a few locations threatening the upper 40s.

Friday/Friday Night...deeper troughing will arrive into the Pacific
Northwest early in the day. A lead shortwave will effectively lead
to height falls through the day but focus for southerly moist
advection and warm air advection will focus further east. While PoPs
will likely linger through the day for much of the area, it`ll be
the light QPF variety with weak lift locally and deep saturation
within poor lapse rates. This will likely suggest more a soggy/damp
day versus one with more expansive rain/thunderstorm potential.
Temperatures, as a result of the lingering cloud cover, will remain
cool for central and eastern Nebraska but moderate to the 70s yet
again for southwest Nebraska through the western Sandhills. This
will be followed by lows in the 50s once again with some locations
threatening the upper 40s in our west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Broad ridging will reside along the Texas Gulf Coast with a
departing mid-level shortwave tracking east of Nebraska towards the
Mississippi Valley. Shortwave ridging with relatively strong height
rises will overspread the Central Plains on Saturday. The resultant
subsidence will quell precipitation potential and foster a slight
warmup across the region. An elongated surface trough will settle
into our western zones and once again serve as the dividing line
between much humid, much milder temperatures east and drier, warmer
air to the west. At this time, believe any increased fire weather
threat should remain to the west across the Panhandle but this will
need monitored in the coming days. Dry weather will persist through
the weekend into Sunday as daytime highs climb into the 70s and 80s.

Deeper troughing will settle into the Great Basin around the start
of the work week and this will lead to ridge breakdown locally.
Within the southwesterly flow, an influx of moisture from the
eastern Pacific from Hurricane Polo should lift northeast through
the Desert Southwest and into the Central Plains. Ensemble guidance
is in good agreement in painting precipitable water (PWATs)
exceeding 150% of normal by Monday and Tuesday. As an upper trough
crosses the Northern Plains, rain and thunderstorms will increase
ahead of and behind a passing frontal boundary. Ensembles continue
to paint high probabilities for heavy rain with 50-80%+ chance to
exceed 0.50" of rainfall in the late Monday/Tuesday time frame.
Details remain murky at best so continue to check later forecasts
for the latest thinking. This increased potential for rain and
thunderstorms will coincide with cooler air as NBM inner-quartile
values fall into the 60s for much of western Nebraska. This will be
followed by a slow climb through the end of the next suggesting a
return to more seasonable temperatures appears probable as we start
October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Lingering low clouds continue to drift across portions of
western Nebraska with gradual improvement expected early in the
period. By this evening, shower and general thunderstorm
activity should be ongoing across far western Nebraska with
gradual eastward shift towards the terminals. Have only included
a TEMPO group for impacts at KVTN given time-lagged CAM
guidance painting a short window of direct impacts. Will carry a
longer prevailing mention at KLBF with confidence in timing
medium at best. While embedded thunderstorms certainly appear
possible, will limit mention to RA for now with adjustments
possible with later forecasts. Beyond rainfall late tonight, low
stratus and the threat for advection fog should arrive into the
area and could lead to IFR or worse conditions for area
terminals. Will cap impacts at IFR for now but further
degradations with later forecasts will need to be considered.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion