FXUS63 KLBF 240444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1144 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Key Messages:

- After a dry day, light rain chances return tonight into Friday for
areas generally along and south of I-80. Minimal accumulations are
anticipated with this system.

- Another system will move into the region this weekend, bringing
the threat for wintry precipitation.

- Moderating temperatures and dry conditions return through the
  middle of next week ahead of an approaching cold front.

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and 500-mb analysis shows a long wave
trough across the Gulf of Alaska extending south across the North
Pacific. Further southeast, a weak upper-level trough is situated
across northern Arizona extending south across the Desert Southwest.
A ridge of high pressure is apparent across the Gulf of Mexico
extending across much of the Southeastern United States. A shortwave
embedded within a mean long wave trough across the western CONUS is
crossing the Rockies with an associated lee cyclone developing
across eastern Colorado. At the surface, high pressure is noted
across the southwestern Minnesota, spilling across much of the High
Plains region. At 2 PM CT, temperatures ranged from 28 degrees at
O`Neill to 46 degrees at North Platte.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

As the aforementioned lee cyclone ejects eastward across Kansas this
evening into Friday morning, frontogenetical forcing increases
across the Kansas/Nebraska border into southwestern Nebraska. This
will result in an area of precipitation developing across the far
northeastern Colorado late tonight before spreading eastward across
the Kansas/Nebraska border into southwestern Nebraska early Friday
morning. Do expect the predominate precipitation type being rain
though a brief period of snow/rain mix is possible as temperatures
fall sub-freezing around 09Z. Any rain/snow mix will quickly
transition to all rain as temperatures climb well above freezing
with daytime highs climbing into the low 50s. Precipitation will
be quick to exit southwestern and central Nebraska Friday evening
as mid-level dry air begins to work into the area. Minimal
accumulations are expected with only a few hundreths possible for
areas south of Highway 23. The potential that dry air across the
Sandhills moving in faster than previously thought is possible
which would further limit total precipitation amounts. Given the
brief nature and minimal accumulations of this system, no
significant impacts are anticipated.

There is only a very brief window in time late on Friday where a
lull in precipitation exists before the next system brings the
threat for wintry precipitation going into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Precipitation chances increase Saturday into Sunday as an Arctic
cold front and associated upper level disturbance approaches the
area Saturday morning. Cold air advection (CAA) increases in the
front`s wake resulting in wintry precipitation returning across the
area. Recent forecast soundings continue to suggest a very brief
window of freezing rain being possible across southwest into central
Nebraska early Saturday morning resulting in a light glaze on
elevated surfaces. Confidence in seeing impacts from the freezing
rain appear low at this time. By the afternoon into evening, all
precipitation will transition to snow, though a rain/snow mix is
possible across southwestern and central Nebraska before CAA
overspreads the forecast area. Right now, the best potential for
light accumulating snowfall is for areas across the southern
Panhandle into southwestern Nebraska. Confidence in exact amounts
remains rather low at this time given the variability amongst
model solutions. However, this does appear to be better chance for
accumulating snowfall across western and north central Nebraska
for the next 7 days. Will need to continue to monitor this system
for potential impacts.

Another weak shortwave trough tracks across the area Monday
afternoon bringing increased precipitation chances. However,
confidence in this system remains low given model and ensemble
solutions diverge on the exact track of this system.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures begin to moderate with dry
conditions returning as high pressure encompasses the region. Come
Wednesday, temperatures finally return near seasonal for the end of
March. Confidence in spring-like temperatures sticking around remains
low at this time. This is highlighted by large standard deviation
values, specifically for next Thursday. Given this is around the
7 day mark in the forecast, do expect the spread to narrow some
with subsequent forecasts, thus will stick to the NBM solution
with this forecast issuance.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Scattered to broken high cloudiness will pass across western and
north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Some lower ceilings
may occur across SW Nebraska Friday as a weak disturbance pushes
some light precipitation into the area. ATTM, most of this
precipitation should remain off to the south and southwest of the
KLBF terminal. However, there may be some ceilings around 8000 FT
AGL during the day on Friday.





NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion