250
FXUS63 KLBF 111114
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures continue to steadily warm this weekend into the
week. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with
potential for some locations to break into the lower 100s.
- Gusty winds will be possible Monday through Thursday,
especially across the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle.
These winds, combined with the heat and no precipitation may
bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
An upper level ridge currently centered over western AZ will lift
into eastern UT by early this evening. Surface high pressure across
the Great Lakes and Midwest and low pressure over the Rockies will
bring a increase in southerly winds across the area today from 10 to
20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph across the western Sandhills. Highs
Saturday will be about 3 degrees warmer than Friday, in the lower
90s northern NE, near 90s southwest, and upper 80s central NE. Skies
will be sunny, although some atmospheric smoke is expected across
the area Saturday from ongoing forest fires in southwest CO and UT.
Saturday night, a light south wind 5 to 15 mph with lows in the mid
60s. By Sunday afternoon, the upper ridge center will strengthen to
5990 meters at 500mb across northwest SD. This will bring hot
temperatures exceeding 100 degrees across eastern WY, western SD and
even the northwest NE panhandle. Highs across western NE will warm a
few more degrees, in the 90s, with highs near 96 at Valentine and 98
at Gordon. Southerly winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph across the
entire forecast area. Skies will again be sunny, except for the
potential for some atmospheric smoke. Lows Sunday night around 65,
except upper 60s northern NE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
Upper level ridging is expected to persist throughout the week,
bringing a warm, dry pattern. The strongest flow in the ridge is
expected to settle across southern Canada, bringing a dome of high
pressure across the Plains. Following this flow aloft, warmer
temperatures are expected to stream west and north of the region,
bringing hot temperatures across the Intermountain West and the
Northern Plains. While the warmer temperatures aloft are expected to
be mostly west and north of the region, this will still bring warmer
temperatures aloft across the region, allowing for warmer surface
temperatures. Given the latest forecast trends, generally expect
highs this week to be in the mid to upper 90s across most of the
region, with potential for highs to break into the lower 100s across
northern Nebraska. These temperatures are not unusual for July
across western Nebraska, with forecast highs around the 75th to 90th
percentile of local climatology. However, with multiple days of
expected high temperatures, this will usher in a heat wave through
the week. There still is some uncertainty in how warm temperatures
will get this week, as there is still a notable difference between
the GEFS and European ensembles. The European ensemble continues to
suggest that highs struggle to break 90 degrees across most of the
region, despite the strength of the ridge and the fact that our
average daily highs are around 90 to 91. The GEFS solution on the
other hand covers most of the area with a greater than 90
percent chance to break 90 degrees, and suggests potential for
100 to be exceeded across northern Nebraska. Given the strength
of the ridge and warmer air aloft, this builds greater
confidence in the warmer GEFS solutions, so continue to believe
that mid to upper 90s remains the most likely solution. With
this in mind, there is still some potential that temperatures
could trend warmer over the next few forecast cycles, especially
if the GEFS solutions come to fruition.
In addition to the heat, the ridge will limit the potential for
precipitation this week. With no precipitation in the forecast, we
could quickly see some drying conditions across the region,
especially given the heat. Strong mixing in the lower atmosphere is
expected this week, leading to gusty winds each afternoon. This is
especially true Monday through Thursday, where wind gusts of 35 to
40 mph are expected, mainly across the western Sandhills into the
eastern Panhandle. With the expected warmer, drier, and windy
conditions, this may lead to a return of elevated to near critical
fire weather concerns this week. Will continue to closely monitor
forecast trends this week in regard to these concerns.
By late week, guidance suggests an upper level trough begins to make
its way across the Pacific Northwest and potentially across the
Northern Plains. This may help to breakdown the ridge, bringing
potential for northwest flow aloft. This could usher in more
seasonal temperatures and some lower end precipitation chances.
However, confidence in this occurring remains low. Throughout the
week, confidence should continue to grow one way or the other, as
the upper level pattern becomes more resolved.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska for most of today and tonight. Patchy fog has
developed across portions of southwest Nebraska, bringing brief MVFR
conditions due to lower visibility. However, this fog is expected to
remain patchy in nature and will quickly burn off this morning.
Winds remain southerly today, becoming gusty by mid morning. The
strongest gusts are expected across portions of the Sandhills, with
gusts up to 30 knots possible. For KLBF and KVTN, generally
expecting gusts to remain near 20 knots for peak gusts this
afternoon, with potential for slightly stronger gusts at KVTN. Gusts
are expected to decrease by the evening for area terminals, with
some gusts remaining across the Sandhills this evening.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion