656
FXUS63 KLBF 241126
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
526 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A prolonged period of above normal temperatures and gusty
winds will lead to increased fire weather concerns through
the week, particularly Thursday and Friday.
- A passing frontal boundary will bring potential for measurable
rain (30-50%) across portions of western and central Nebraska
mainly tonight.
- Much colder temperatures arrive this weekend as strong Arctic
high pressure settles in from the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Strong upper level ridging will remains in place across the western
US through Tuesday night. This will keep conditions dry and allow
for warming temperatures to continue. Warm air advection will push
850 mb temperatures in the 8 to 12 C range into Nebraska today
resulting in widespread highs in the mid 50s into the low to mid 60s
across southwest Nebraska. A weak trough slides across the northern
Plains this afternoon, allowing for some colder air to filter into
the region by the afternoon. This may limit highs today across
northern Nebraska into the upper 40s to low 50s. For lows,
temperatures return to above normal(mid teens) dropping only into
the mid to upper 20s through Tuesday night.
The next system arrives on Wednesday bringing precipitation chances
back to the region. A weak trough and resulting frontal boundary
will push through the central Plains bringing the potential for some
significant moisture the much of north central Nebraska. At this
time precipitation is expected to arrive across the north by late
Wednesday morning with the majority falling in the afternoon before
coming to an end Wednesday evening. Some wet snow may be possible
early Wednesday across northern Nebraska before temperatures rise
above freezing, but otherwise, with temperatures well above freezing
during the day, all precipitation will be in the form of rain.
Current hi-res guidance suggests precipitation may be more showery
in nature, rather than widespread stratiform precipitation. There is
even some indication of some weak instability Wednesday afternoon.
Therefore there is some low confidence that even some convective
showers could develop. While there probably won`t be enough
instability for weak thunderstorms to develop, there will be some
showers that contain heavier precipitation rates. Precipitation
comes to an end early evening and therefore as temperatures drop
below freezing (lows in the mid to upper 20s) Wednesday night, there
will be no potential for any freezing precip across the region.
The other concern with this system on Wednesday will be the
potential for some stronger winds as the front tracks across north
central Nebraska. The greatest potential for the strongest winds
will be across the Panhandle where gusts up to 50 mph are
possible. At this time, no wind headlines are in effect, but if
trends continue to increase, they may be necessary.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Broad northwesterly flow aloft will persist Thursday and Friday
across the area. This will lead to a continuation of mild
temperatures and dry conditions across the forecast area through
the end of the work week. Highs Thursday will range from the
upper 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south. The
current NBM forecast for North Platte has a high of 62 for
Thursday which is right at the 50%ile for the NBM ensemble
forecast. The 25th to 75th%ile ensemble spread for Thursday is
61 to 65, so feel fairly confident in the NBM operational
forecast. For Friday highs will range from the lower 60s in the
north to the upper 60s in the south. This is on the lower side
of the 25th to 75th percentile and may need some upward
modification with subsequent forecasts. With the warm
temperatures and dry conditions (Min RH Thursday 15 to 25% and
Friday 15 to 20%) am concerned about fire weather concerns and
achieving near critical or critical thresholds. Hitting these
thresholds will key in on expected wind potential during the
afternoon hours both days. For Thursday, the greatest potential
for 25+ MPH wind gusts is generally west and north of a line
from Ogallala, to Mullen, to O`Neill. These areas have a better
than 50% chance of 25MPH wind gusts or greater. For Friday, the
main area of concern for wind gusts > 25 MPH is west of highway
61 from Merriman to Imperial. In the before mentioned areas,
near critical fire weather conditions appear likely with
critical fire weather conditions possible (hinges on winds).
Elsewhere, elevated fire weather conditions are expected with
near critical fire weather conditions possible. Will continue to
assess forecast trends as we get closer and wouldn`t be
surprised if we need some sort of fire headlines Friday with
more uncertainty for Thursday.
Saturday through Monday...A mid level trough of low pressure,
tracking from Manitoba into Ontario Friday/Friday night, will force
an arctic cold front through the forecast area Saturday. Looking at
the deterministic GFS and EC solns tonight, there is a 6 hour
difference in frontal timing with these two models. The EC is faster
and forces the cold front through the forecast area Saturday
morning. The later GFS forces the front through the forecast area
midday. Regardless, there will be a wide range in temps Saturday
with highs in the middle 30s in the north, to lower 50s in the
south. Arctic air will remain entrenched across the area Sunday with
colder temps expected. Highs Sunday will range from the middle 30s
in the east to upper 40s in the west. The arctic airmass will be
forced east on Monday as more zonal flow develops across the central
and southern plains. Highs Monday will range from the upper 40s in
the east to middle 50s in the west. The latest ensembles including
the GFS and EC continue to hint at the potential for low chances and
light precipitation Saturday through Monday. ATTM, exact details and
timing of precipitation along with chances remain uncertain and will
need to be ironed out with subsequent forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026
Abundant mid and high level cloudiness will stream into western
and north central Nebraska today from the northwest. Broken
ceilings of 25000 FT AGL will lower to 15000 to 20000 FT AGL
this afternoon, then 10000 to 12000 FT AGL tonight. There is a
threat for low level wind shear through late morning at both
terminals. Winds will increase at both terminals by late morning
with some surface wind gusts approaching 25 KTS at the KVTN
terminal this afternoon. Winds will be variable at under 10 KTS
tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion