169
FXUS63 KLBF 252317
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous heat persists across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Monday afternoon. Heat index values
in excess of 100 degrees each day will increase the threat for
heat related illnesses.
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon today
through Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe each
day, with a threat for damaging wind gusts.
- The pattern will transition to a northwest-flow regime,
bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
beginning Wednesday and continuing into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Temperatures have soared into the lower triple digits across the
entire area this afternoon, with dangerous heat concerns for all of
western and north central Nebraska. The highest heat index values
thus far have been observed across north central Nebraska, where
they have locally approached 110-115F.
With deep diurnal mixing already underway, the anomalously warm
temperatures aloft (H85 temps exceeding 90th percentile) have
promoted temperatures as high as 102-107F. Though dewpoints have
largely fallen into the upper 40s to 50s along and west of HWY 83,
the warm temperatures will keep dangerous heat going into this
evening. Further east, much richer surface dewpoints is leading to a
dangerous combination of heat and humidity. Little to no relief is
expected overnight tonight, as lows only fall into the middle 70s.
Scattered thunderstorm development is also possible through this
afternoon and into the evening, along a weak surface trough
positioned across the western Sandhills. Any storms that form will
likely pose a risk for strong to damaging winds, with very large
T/Td spreads leading to deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. In
fact, DCAPE values are currently exceeding 2000J/kg across much of
the Sandhills. Adequate deep layer shear (25-35kts) will allow for
some updraft organization today, and these high based thunderstorms
could bring a risk for damaging winds mainly north of HWY 2 through
early evening. With precipitation falling into such a dry boundary
layer, limited rain accumulations may pose some threat for dry
lightning may develop this afternoon as well. A loss of diurnal
instability should allow for any lingering thunderstorms to quickly
wane after sunset.
Yet another very hot day is in store again tomorrow, with highs
again climbing to above 100F. Some guidance suggests tomorrow may be
slightly warmer than even today, and this will again promote
dangerous heat index values well above 100F for much of the area.
Again considered an expansion in Extreme Heat headlines for
tomorrow, though lingering uncertainty with how far east the deeper
mixing occurs tomorrow precludes this tomorrow. It is where the
highest dewpoints (and lesser mixing) remains tomorrow where the
greatest threat for heat index values of 105-110F will exist. Trends
will continue to be monitored for possible expansion, though it will
be dangerously hot everywhere regardless. Another round of scattered
thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening, mainly near and east of
HWY 83 along a weak cool front. A few of these storms could again be
severe, with damaging wind gusts as the main threat in the well
mixed airmass.
Though the aforementioned weak cool front pushes through the area
Sunday night, this is expected to bring limited relief from the
heat. With anomalously warm temperatures aloft still Monday, highs
again climb into the upper 90s to low 100s, and heat index values
will approach 100-105F yet again. Heat precautions will need to be
continued into Monday across all of western and north central
Nebraska. Yet again, scattered high-based thunderstorms will be
possible within a broad easterly upslope regime Monday afternoon, as
storms move east off the high terrain. Damaging winds again look to
be a threat, with the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles still in
place.
Some heat relief finally arrives Tuesday, as the warmer temperatures
aloft are ushered to the southeast. Still, highs in the 90s and
lingering humidity will push heat index values into the middle 90s.
Though not as hot as previous days, the heat relief will remain
limited across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Wednesday, a strong 597-dam 500-mb upper-level ridge will remain
anchored across the southwestern United States. Increasing warm air
advection (WAA) will support 850-mb temperatures rising into the 25
to 30C range. Given sufficient daytime mixing, these temperatures
would support highs in the middle 90s across much of the area, with
a few locations potentially reaching the lower 100s. As the ridge
shifts slightly southwestward, the forecast area will transition
into more of a northwest-flow (ring of fire) pattern. This pattern
typically favors weak disturbances tracking along the northern
periphery of the ridge, resulting in periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Recent model guidance has begun to depict
convection developing across Wyoming and western Nebraska before
moving southeast toward the forecast area, which is a common
evolution in this pattern. At this time, the severe weather threat
appears low, as the strongest deep-layer shear is forecast to remain
north of the area. However, precipitation chances and any associated
severe weather potential will continue to be monitored over the next
several forecast cycles. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally
in the middle 60s.
Thursday, northwest flow aloft will remain in place as the upper-
level ridge stays centered over Colorado. High temperatures will
once again climb into the middle 90s across much of the area. Some
model guidance continues to suggest a weak shortwave disturbance
moving southeast through the flow, which would provide another
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence in the timing
and coverage of any precipitation remains low at this range.
Overnight lows will once again remain mild, generally in the middle
60s.
Friday through the weekend, the upper-level ridge is expected to
remain amplified across the western United States, maintaining
northwest flow aloft across the central Plains. Temperatures are
expected to remain well above normal, with highs generally in the
middle 90s to near 100 degrees as the primary storm track remains
north of the region. Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
will continue as additional weak disturbances move through the
northwest flow. While these disturbances should provide occasional
opportunities for precipitation, widespread wetting rainfall does
not appear likely at this time. Forecast confidence in the timing
and placement of these disturbances remains low and will continue to
be refined over the coming forecast cycles.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
After the line of sub-severe thunderstorms that is currently
(23z)impacting the KVTN terminal, VFR is anticipated at both
west central Nebraska TAF sites. The line will continue
eastward, impacting KONL and KANW from 00z through 03z. At KONL,
additional storms may be possible overnight, though confidence
is low. Otherwise, near term guidance indicates the possibility
of WS at KVTN overnight with increasing speeds just off the
surface. Final concern with the aviation forecast is the
potential of gusty winds in and around storms across north
central and northwestern Nebraska. A very dry sub cloud layer
is allowing for gusty erratic winds of 50kts or greater at
times, though once the current activity shifts east, the threat
decreases markedly.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ004-
022>024-035-036-056>058-069-070-094.
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ005>010-
025>029-037-038-059-071.
Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ005-008-009-
025>028-037-038-059-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Jacobs
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion