813
FXUS63 KLBF 051945
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
245 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will continue through tonight.

- A chance for scattered storms returns to northwest Nebraska
  late Tuesday afternoon and then dissipating Tuesday evening.

- A better chance for more organized storms Wednesday into
  Thursday. Drier and hotter weather is in store for next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A weak area of surface high pressure is located across the
forecast area thins afternoon. This beneath upper-level ridging
that has built northeastward from the southern Rockies. These
features are aiding in subsidence across the region, and
expecting a storm free late afternoon and night tonight. The
weak surface high will shift east of the area tonight, with
low-level flow becoming south-southeast on the backside of the
high. The ridge remains in place Monday as a weak shortwave
disturbance moves across the Dakotas on the northern periphery
of the upper ridge. Ascent from this wave does clip northern
Nebraska Monday afternoon into the evening. Appears that
scattered late afternoon convection across the northern
Panhandle could spread into northwest Nebraska Tuesday evening
before dissipating. Overall shear is weak and not expecting any
severe at this point, but some locally gusty winds will be
possible through the early evening. Upper-ridge will flatten
somewhat Tuesday as a bit sponger wave crosses the Northern and
Central Plains. Shear increases some along with a moderately
unstable atmosphere. A better chance of locally stronger storms,
especially across northern Nebraska, will be possible Tuesday
evening as convection organizes and moves eastward off the
higher terrain to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

West to northwest flow aloft will persist Wednesday through
Friday. Another stronger disturbance crosses the area Thursday,
with a decent chance for showers/storms. Ridging aloft then
starts to build northward again Saturday with chances for
rainfall decreasing. There continues to be a signal for
conditions to become quite hot just beyond the forecast period.
Ensemble members and operational runs of the various models are
advertising a very strong upper ridge expanding across the
Plains. This could bring some real heat to the region and will
have to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions will continue through tonight and into Monday
across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds will
become south at 10-20 kts during the day Monday. Otherwise due
expected some low-level wind shear of about 30-35 kts from the
south tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion