452
FXUS63 KLBF 100742
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
242 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak showers and thunderstorms are possible along and east of
  Highway 83 today. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- Upper level ridging begins to build across the region,
  bringing a warmer, drier pattern starting this weekend. Above
  average highs are expected, with highs in the mid to upper 90s
  and possibly lower 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A surface low pressure system is expected to slowly track across
Kansas today, with a nearly stationary front across Kansas. This
should continue to place the forecast area to the northwest of the
low, providing subtle forcing throughout the day. General cloudiness
throughout the day, especially for areas east of Highway 83, will
limit the ability for CAPE to build across the region, with guidance
suggesting less than 1,000 J/kg. Upper level ridging is expected to
begin building across the region today, which will greatly limit our
deep layer shear. Something else to bear in mind is that an MCV has
developed across central Nebraska early this morning. As the MCV
lingers, this may continue to provide enough support for weak
showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and east of Highway 83.
However, chances for precipitation to develop remain on the low end,
so have generally kept PoPs under 30 percent for today, especially
as guidance tracks the MCV to the east. Given the general lack or
instability and shear, do not anticipate that any storm development
in the afternoon will be severe.

As just mentioned, upper level ridging begins building across the
region today, and it will continue building on Saturday. Southerly
low level flow will begin to usher in warmer temperatures aloft, but
really expect this to ramp up by Sunday into next week. This will
leave us nearly seasonal for Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s expected across most of the region and no
precipitation. In fact, this will be the first of several days in
this similar pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

With the upper level ridging becoming fully established, expect a
warmer, drier pattern across western and north central Nebraska for
most of this week. Southerly flow in the lower levels will support
warm air advection across the area, helping to usher in warmer
temperatures. While some anomalous 850 mb temperatures are expected
over the region, latest deterministic guidance suggests this will be
generally single digit anomalies across western and north central
Nebraska, with greater anomalies across the northern Plains. For our
region, this generally brings highs in the mid to upper 90s, with
some locations breaking into the lower 100s. With warmer
temperatures aloft across the northern Plains, our best chances for
breaking 100 will generally be areas across northern Nebraska near
the South Dakota border. This is further backed by ensemble
guidance, especially in the GEFS guidance. Based on ensemble
guidance, tend to agree that the GEFS has a better handle on the
expected heat, as each day is expected to exceed 90 degrees across
the region, compared to the European solutions which barely see any
areas breaking 90. For reference, our typical highs this week are
right around 90 to 91 degrees, so it is quite surprising that the
ECMWF ensemble solutions are quite reluctant to break 90 across the
region, especially given the strength of the ridge. Looking at our
local climatology, forecast highs are around the 75th to 90th
percentile, which is in line with expected conditions. However,
highs currently remain well below record highs, which all exceed
105. That being said, this still will be a stretch of above average
temperatures, and overnight lows are expected to eventually warm
into the upper 60s to lower 70s, especially across north central
Nebraska. While heat headlines are not anticipated at this time,
will be keeping a close eye on forecast trends this week as this
heat wave develops.

In addition to the heat, precipitation is not expected this week,
and conditions could get fairly windy across the Sandhills this
week. As southerly winds mix to the surface, we could see gusts of
35 to 40 mph especially Monday through Thursday. With the return of
warmer temperatures, no precipitation, gusty winds, and lowering
humidity, we could see a return of elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions, especially across the western Sandhills into the
eastern Panhandle. Will certainly be keeping a close eye on forecast
trends this week, as fire weather could be of concern again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east overnight, with
the main area already east of area terminals. Gusty winds are
expected to remain in the wake of the storms for an hour or so,
before calming to nearly light and variable across the region. Also,
as storms move out, ceilings are expected to remain VFR through the
night into the daytime hours. Throughout the day, winds remain
fairly light, with peak winds across the Sandhills and northern
Nebraska, where occasional gusts up to 15 knots is possible through
the evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion