972
FXUS63 KLBF 081942
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
242 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to remain on the warm side this
  weekend into early next week, especially for areas along and
  west of Highway 83.

- Elevated fire weather concerns remain across western Nebraska,
  especially given the expected hot and dry conditions. Winds
  will continue to be the determining factor.

- Confidence continues to build in a pattern shift towards
  cooler, wetter weather starting mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Upper level ridging is observed across the western United States,
with the main core of the jet stream remaining across the Dakotas.
Below the ridge, an area of warm air advection aloft is noted
tracking across the Plains. This push of warmer temperatures aloft
will not only lead to warmer surface temperatures, but also provides
a solid cap on the environment, as seen in the 18z KLBF sounding.
However, a fair amount of instability remains above the cap, and is
expected to remain through the evening as the boundary layer
decouples. Much like last night, a low level jet is expected to
develop across the Plains. However, this jet is expected to push
further north, firing convection across South Dakota late this
evening into the overnight hours. With the marginal forcing, cannot
completely rule out that a few elevated storms develop across
northern portions of Nebraska, but have generally limited this to
slight chance PoPs in the forecast. Should be worth mentioning that
with the strength of the cap, expecting any convection that could
develop will be above the cap, greatly limiting a severe threat this
evening into the night. However, as the stronger storms across South
Dakota track east-southeast tonight, may see a few of the stronger
cells clip portions of north central Nebraska, generally areas north
of the Niobrara River. These cells may pose a better wind risk,
especially if more linear convection occurs over South Dakota,
however, probabilities remain on the lower side at this time. For
what it`s worth, the Storm Prediction Center has greatly trimmed the
Marginal Risk for today and tonight, as well as early morning across
the North Platte CWA. In fact, the main concern would be (as
previously mentioned) any of the stronger cells in South Dakota
potentially clipping portions of north central Nebraska.

Further to the south, may see some additional fog development in the
predawn hours, lasting into the early morning hours. The main areas
of concern remain in lower lying regions and river valleys across
southwest and central Nebraska. Overnight, fairly light winds are
expected, with dewpoints remaining in the 60s. At this time, not
thinking a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed, but may see some
patchy fog, especially along the river valleys early morning, which
may impede visibility.

For Sunday, expecting a fairly hot and dry day across the region.
While highs are expected to reach the 90s across most of the region,
the warmest temperatures are expected west of Highway 83, where
stronger warm air advection is expected. For areas west of Highway
83, expecting that highs will push into the mid to upper 90s both
Sunday and Monday. Latest guidance has trended these highs just a
few degrees cooler, now keeping highs mostly below 100. In fact,
even heat indices are expected to remain below 100, with the best
chances of seeing anything above 100 limited to far southwest
Nebraska. These temperatures, while warm, are only around 10 degrees
above average for early to mid August, with typical highs right
around 87 to 89.

However, this heat is also expected to be accompanied by fairly dry
conditions. This may bring greater concern for areas across western
Nebraska, mainly west of Highway 61, where the latest drought
monitor still shows severe to extreme drought conditions. These
relatively hot and dry conditions may drive at least some elevated
fire weather concerns into early next week. However, have seen a
slight trend towards slightly higher humidity during the afternoon,
with areas west of Highway 61 expected to remain just above 25
percent humidity. With this slightly better humidity, winds will be
the primary factor in whether or not elevated concerns are achieved
the next few days. Expecting mostly easterly winds on Sunday, with
gusts up to 25 mph, and more southeasterly gusts on Monday, with
peak gusts again around 25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Conditions are expected to remain warm on Tuesday, and much like the
previous days, expecting warmest conditions will remain along and
west of Highway 83, with highs pushing into the mid to upper 90s.
Will also be keeping an eye out for potential elevated fire weather
concerns west of Highway 61 again, as humidity drops around 25
percent in the afternoon with gusty easterly winds, up to 25 mph.

By mid week, guidance suggests an upper level trough attempts to
track over the western United States, slightly pushing the ridge to
the west. This signal continues to be noted with the latest forecast
cycles, continuing to build confidence in the pattern shift.
However, there is still a bit of uncertainty in the amplitude of the
various upper level features, so there may still be some slight
refinement on timing over the next few forecast cycles as guidance
comes into consensus. Regardless, this is expected to usher in a
more active upper level pattern, increasing chances of precipitation
Wednesday onward. Ensemble guidance suggests fairly strong chances
for at least measureable precipitation, with the European ensembles
remaining more optimistic than the GEFS solutions on precipitation
chances and amounts. Along with the increasing precipitation
potential, expecting to see a cooling pattern by mid week as well.
In fact, this trend continues to suggest highs that may be around 10
to 15 degrees below average to end the week, with highs dropping
into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout most of the effective TAF period. Some
lingering low stratus is observed over southwest Nebraska this
afternoon, continuing to erode. Through the afternoon and evening,
mostly clear skies are expected, with southerly gusty winds across
the region. Tonight, another round of showers and thunderstorms may
attempt to form along northern Nebraska, with low confidence in any
impact to the KVTN terminal. Further to the south, additional fog
may develop in low lying regions and river valleys, potentially
bringing fog into KLBF in the predawn and early morning hours.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion