412
FXUS63 KLBF 011722
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued chances for storms will continue through the 4th of
  July. Storms will be scattered and mainly during the late
  afternoon and nighttime hours.

- Storm chances will begin to diminish Sunday into the first of
  next week. Temperatures will be quite warm through the entire
  period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Southwest flow aloft will continue across the area through Thursday
as a broad long-wave trough remains anchored across the western
CONUS. This will keep things rather unsettled with continued chances
for scattered convection. It appears that a meso-high will build
into the area for much of the day Wednesday in the wake of the MCS
crossing the area right now. This should largely keep most of the
day dry. The environment will remain strongly sheared, and there
should be some decent boundary layer recovery, particularly across
southwest Nebraska by late afternoon. Most hi-res models develop at
least scattered late afternoon convection across northwest Kansas
where steeper low-level lapse rates will be located. These track
northeast during the evening into southwest Nebraska. Some
uncertainty on how far into the area they will track, or if the more
concentrated area of storms remains east of the area. Thursday the
overall shear is a little less favorable  but still adequate.
instability  will be moderate to strong, with pockets of 3000+ J/KG.
Uncertain on how convection may evolve Thursday. One of the more
probable scenarios may be for convection to organize across South
Dakota and then develop southward into the low-level jet across
northern Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Flow aloft becomes more zonal this coming Holiday weekend. Appears
that a decent wave will embedded within the flow Friday. Very
unstable conditions, along with a highly sheared environment, favors
at least isolated supercell potential later in the day. This may be
locally enhanced with a warm front anchored across the area as
surface low pressure deepens across southwest Nebraska. Another wave
impacts the area on the 4th of July, with at least scattered
convection in the area during the afternoon into the evening. By
Sunday into the first of next week, ridging aloft builds into the
area with the threat for storms diminishing as the overall flow
aloft weakens and temperatures aloft warm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Expect some scattered to broken coverage of clouds around 2500
FT AGL mainly east of a line from KLBF to KANW through mid
afternoon. Clouds will then burn off with a few to scattered
high clouds around 25000 expected tonight into Thursday morning.
There is a minor threat for isolated thunderstorms this evening
and overnight across portions of the area. At this time, given
expected isolated coverage and model uncertainity, will forgo
mention of TSRA`s in this 18z TAF package.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion