182
FXUS63 KLBF 091833
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
133 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight.
  By early Friday morning, slight chances of snow showers along
  and north of Highway 2. Precipitation is expected to be very
  light.

- Slightly better chances for showers and thunderstorms to
  develop Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation totals are
  expected to remain light, with higher end values around one
  tenth of an inch.

- Increasing potential for precipitation chances Saturday night
  into Sunday morning.

- High temperatures into the 80s expected Sunday and Monday,
  with fire weather concerns possible Sunday due to low RH
  values and gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A low pressure system continues to remain south of the area, with a
warm front tracking through northern Kansas. An area of high
pressure continues to build across the northern Plains, which
contributes to the cooler temperatures today. This will persist
overnight, bringing lows into the mid 20s to mid 30s across western
and north central Nebraska, with the cooler temperatures to the
north.

This set up will also bring a chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the region tonight. Guidance has consistently
shown an area of moisture aloft, with relatively dry lower layers.
This is readily seen in forecast sounding across the region, which
suggest a moist layer above 700mb, with much drier low layers,
especially at and below 800mb overnight. With the nearby frontal
boundary, believe lift will be sufficient for shower and storm
development, especially along and south of Interstate 80 tonight.
However, as precipitation falls, the dry low layers will likely
evaporate most of the falling precipitation, so continue to believe
that any precipitation amounts tonight will be on the very low end,
maybe a few hundredths at most. More concerning is the threat for
lightning with developing convection. Given the lack of recent
precipitation, and little precipitation expected tonight, lightning
could cause quite the concern for potential fire starts.
Additionally, virga from nearby showers and storms may create some
locally gusty, erratic winds. Will definitely be something worth
keeping a close eye on this evening and overnight.

Further to the north, especially late overnight into early Friday
morning, expecting that if any isolated showers are occurring,
precipitation will transition to snow. This is mainly areas along
and north of Highway 2, where overnight lows drop into the mid to
upper 20s. However, as with the expected liquid precipitation, given
the very dry lower layers in the environment, not expecting any snow
accumulations, but cannot rule out seeing a few light flurries early
morning.

Friday, an upper level trough begins to track across the western
United States, which will have some impact on our upcoming weather.
Lingering showers are possible Friday morning, but again this would
be accompanied by very low precipitation totals on the order of a
few hundredths at most. Expecting a mostly dry afternoon, but cannot
completely rule out a rogue isolated shower with the vicinity of the
low. However, by Friday night, as the trough begins to provide
support to the surface low by deepening it and forcing it to track
north, expecting that better rain chances may be seen across western
and north central Nebraska. At this time, it still appears that
better rain and thunderstorm chances will be more towards the east.
However, as the low tracks north, expecting that increasing humidity
in the lower layers of the environment will support some light rain
showers, and potentially isolated thunderstorms. While precipitation
is still expected to remain on the lower end, thinking that given
the potential duration for rainfall that higher end amounts may
creep into and just above one tenth of an inch.

Rain showers are likely to persist through parts of the day
Saturday, with greatest chances along and south of an Ogallala to
O`Neill line. However, as this is occurring, anomalously warm 850mb
temperatures are expected across the region. This will begin to kick
off a warming trend this weekend into early next week. Given the
recent warmth and relative lack of precipitation, went ahead and
trended forecast highs slightly warmer on Saturday, even with the
expected cloud cover. For most of the region, expecting highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, however, portions of north central Nebraska
are only expected to reach the low 70s. Although there are warmer
temperatures and gusty southerly winds on Saturday, ongoing
precipitation and slightly higher humidity values should limit a
greater fire weather concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

An active pattern remains in place through much of the period as
southwest flow aloft persists across the region. Saturday night
through Sunday, a weak shortwave will move into the area and
increase the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms
overnight Saturday. Better forcing and moisture overlap look remain
south and east of our area, so little meaningful precipitation is
expected with this system. 850 mb temperatures on Sunday are
forecast to climb into the 19-21C range, supporting a warm up with
high temps reaching the upper 70s and low 80s across the area. This
is about 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year, which
has continued to be the theme this winter and spring so far. There
could be some fire concerns Sunday as the dryline moves east of the
area, promoting RH values in the teens along with gusty southwest to
westerly winds. This will continue to be monitored as any wetting
rainfall from today through Saturday night could reduce fire weather
concerns. Temperatures on Monday will remain warm for this time of
year, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. Monday
continues to look dry and there could be some additional fire weather
concerns, though the threat appears more limited at this time due to
lighter winds forecasted around 5 to 10 mph.

Heading into the middle of next week, another storm system will
approach the area as an upper level trough moves into the western
United States. This upper level system is forecast to move east
Tuesday into Wednesday, which could lead to increasing precipitation
chances across the area. At this time, there remains considerable
uncertainty with the evolution of this system. The GEFS and its
members continues to eject this trough more quickly during the day
on Tuesday, which would limit moisture return and precipitation
potential across the area. In contrast, the ECMWF ensembles dig the
trough farther west and delay the ejection until Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This solution would favor a better opportunity for
moisture return and better chances for precipitation for the region.
The eventual track of the system will also be important, as any
shifts could greatly impact where the greatest precipitation sets
up. The trend in recent model guidance has been toward a faster
ejection of the system, so will continue to monitor this over the
next few days to see if models come into better agreement regarding
the timing, track, and precipitation potential.

Daytime temperatures through the middle of next week will likely
remain in the 60s to lower 70s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. An
area of showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move east and
should exit the area over the 1 to 2 hours. Additional isolated
showers may persist through the afternoon, but nothing widespread is
expected. Winds will be east to northeast this afternoon at 5 to 10
kts. Across the northern Sandhills, winds will be northeast to east
with gusts up to 20 kts possible. Across western Nebraska, some
gusty winds could continue through the evening with gusts up to 25
kts. Winds will then shift back to a more easterly direction at 5-10
kts overnight into Friday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Labenz

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion