170
FXUS63 KLBF 281156
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
656 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog will continue into this morning with a
  dense fog advisory in effect until 10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT.

- Scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon into Friday
  night, with the greatest precipitation chances currently
  favoring central and eastern Nebraska. Mainly dry conditions
  are expected Saturday, with highs in the upper 50s to middle
  60s through the weekend.

- A stronger storm system may impact the region early to middle
  next week, bringing increasing chances for more widespread
  rainfall and cooler temperatures. Considerable uncertainty
  remains regarding the timing and track of this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Today and Tonight...The main concern will be widespread fog through
mid morning. The 00Z LBF sounding showed saturation up to H85 with
much drier air aloft. This will be favorable for dense fog across
southwest and central NE, north to near highways 2 and 91. A
prefrontal surface trough will move east this morning, followed by a
weak cold frontal passage late morning into this afternoon. This
will end fog from west to east starting near daybreak with morning
stratus clearing out late morning into early afternoon. Highs today
remain near the previous forecast from the mid 60s northwest
Sandhills to upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere. Surface high
pressure will move into eastern NE tonight. Winds will be light and
variable, except becoming light southeast across the northwest
Sandhills. Could see stratus and fog returning to the panhandle and
far southwest Nebraska after midnight. Lows will be cooler in the
mid to upper 30s.

Thursday and Thursday night...Stratus may persist across northwest
Kansas and far southwest NE into Thursday afternoon, and lowered
highs a few degrees across far southwest Nebraska. Highs should
be rather uniform from 62 to 66 degrees across the forecast
area as winds return to the south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph in
the afternoon, with gusts to 20 mph across the northwest
Sandhills. A warm front is forecast to develop across west
central into north central KS in the afternoon, where showers
and a few thunderstorms may develop. The warm front will lift
northeast Thursday night, with a slight chance for showers
across far southeastern areas. Synoptically, a closed low will
persist of the coast of the Pacific Northwest as the main upper
trough persists along the West Coast. This will bring an
increase in southwesterly flow aloft to the region as a
shortwave trough moves through New Mexico and west Texas. As a
result, skies will become mostly cloudy with lows from the upper
30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Friday, a longwave trough will remain established across the western
United States as a negative PNA pattern persists. Downstream of this
trough, upper-level ridging will continue to amplify across the
central United States, resulting in height rises across the region.
During the day Friday, model guidance continues to indicate a weak
lead shortwave disturbance moving through the southwesterly flow
ahead of the main trough. Increasing warm air advection (WAA) within
the lower to middle levels, along with strengthening southerly flow,
will support continued moisture transport into the central Plains.
This disturbance will also have increasing moisture to work with,
given the Pacific moisture associated with the approaching system
and surface dewpoints expected to reach the lower to middle 50s
across portions of the region. With increasing forcing for ascent
associated with the lead shortwave, scattered precipitation chances
remain possible Friday afternoon into Friday night. However,
uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and intensity of
precipitation, with the GFS continuing to be the more aggressive
solution. In contrast, the ECMWF remains less aggressive, favoring
the better precipitation chances farther east across central and
eastern Nebraska. Given these differences, confidence in widespread
precipitation remains low, and trends will continue to be monitored
over the next several forecast cycles. Highs Friday should remain in
the upper 50s to lower 60s, with overnight lows generally in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

Saturday, upper-level ridging will remain established across the
northern Plains as the western longwave trough gradually begins
progressing eastward, resulting in strengthening southwesterly flow
aloft across the region. Low-level moisture transport will also
continue, with PWAT values approaching 200 percent of normal across
portions of the area. Given the anomalously moist air mass and
continued moisture advection, considerable low-level cloud cover may
develop and persist through portions of the day Saturday. Despite
the increased moisture, precipitation chances should remain low as
stronger forcing for ascent remains displaced west of the forecast
area. Highs Saturday should reach the lower to middle 60s, with
overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 40s as the increased
moisture and cloud cover limit radiational cooling.

Sunday into the middle of next week, attention turns toward the
western trough as it begins progressing eastward and potentially
develops into a closed upper-level low across the Four Corners
region by Sunday afternoon or evening. By Monday, model guidance
generally supports this system beginning to eject eastward into the
central United States, resulting in increasing southwesterly flow
aloft and stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent across the
central Plains. With anomalous moisture remaining in place ahead of
the approaching system, precipitation chances are expected to
increase, with the potential for more widespread rainfall across the
region early next week. However, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the evolution, timing, and eventual track of this system.
Both the GEFS and EPS generally support increasing precipitation
chances across the region Monday, though differences remain
regarding the placement of the strongest forcing for ascent and the
axis of greatest precipitation. One additional source of uncertainty
is the potential for a stronger northern-stream trough to interact
with the southern-stream system. Some guidance has begun to suggest
a more amplified northern-stream disturbance, which could influence
the timing and track of the southern-stream trough and potentially
result in a more progressive system. Depending on how these features
interact, the corridor of greatest moisture transport and
precipitation could shift farther south and east of the forecast
area. Given the system remains several days away, additional changes
in model guidance are expected. Nevertheless, confidence is
gradually increasing in a more active weather pattern early to
middle next week, with the potential for a stronger storm system to
affect the central Plains. Trends will continue to be monitored as
model guidance begins to converge on a more consistent solution.
Temperatures should gradually cool into the 50s by early to middle
next week as the storm system approaches and precipitation chances
increase. However, temperatures are expected to remain relatively
mild for this time of year, as the overall pattern does not
currently favor a significant intrusion of colder air into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Expect gradual improvements to aviation weather in the next few
hours for western and central Nebraska terminals.

Widespread IFR and LIFR conditions continue but CIGs are slowly
improving while visibility has largely climbed above 1SM
already. By mid to late morning, do anticipate a return to VFR
conditions with gusty northwest winds around 20 to 25 knots.
Late tonight, another threat of fog should develop across at
least portions of the region, however, greatest concern should
remain west of KLBF and KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning
for NEZ022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion