342
FXUS63 KLBF 280604
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
104 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of western
and central Nebraska Saturday, prompting Red Flag Warnings.
- Well above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy
winds at times will promote continued fire weather concerns
through the early part of next week.
- Precipitation chances return to the area around the middle of
next week but confidence in seeing wetting rainfall remains
low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
This afternoon, weak high pressure was passing through the Central
and Northern Plains. As this feature departed to the east, winds
were beginning to flip to the south across far western Nebraska.
Steady north-northwest winds around 15-20 mph were noted across the
area and the persistent cold air advection (CAA) was effectively
hindering the afternoon warmup. Temperatures as of 1230pm CDT ranged
from the upper 40s in the far southwest to the upper 30s over north
central Nebraska. Mid-level stratus was prevalent within the
upslope regime over western Nebraska but this too was eroding fairly
quick. Outside of this, skies were largely sunny to mostly sunny and
should remain that way the remainder of the day.
For tonight...southerly winds will strengthen as surface high
pressure settles into the lower Missouri Valley. A constricting
pressure gradient will support gusty winds late tonight into early
Saturday with speeds around 20-25 mph. This will result in mild
overnight temperatures with lows falling into the upper 20s for
central Nebraska but low to middle 30s in the west. These latter
values are roughly 5-10F above normal for late March low
temperatures. The strengthening winds and mild temperatures will
also promote relatively abnormal overnight fire concerns, with
details below in the Fire Weather section.
Saturday/Saturday Night...Red Flag Warnings are in place for all
fire weather zones of central and eastern Nebraska. More specific
information pertaining to this can be found below. Southerly winds
will rapidly strengthen after daybreak towards midday beneath a
strong LLJ topping 50 knots across the High Plains. As this feature
veers to more southwesterly, warm air advection (WAA) will increase
and pushing h85 temperatures into the 10-14C range for areas west of
Highway 83. This will result in very warm temperatures, particularly
for the area mentioned. As a weak surface low begins to form off the
Laramie Range, a surface trough will approach our western zones by
late afternoon. How far east this feature makes it will have fairly
large implications on afternoon highs. Current thinking is this
feature may approach the Highway 385 corridor but struggle to push
further east. The result is decreasing afternoon highs slightly.
This is especially true in the central and eastern zones where upper
60s to near 70F may be more prevalent. Though strong south to
southwesterly winds east of the trough will promote modest low-level
moisture advection, this may be delayed and begin arriving around or
shortly after peak heating. The result is critically low humidity
during the early afternoon with strong to significant wind gusts.
Further west across the Front Range, modest instability will develop
and result in showers with low-end chances for thunder. While this
will favor areas to the west of the forecast area, some potential
exists to see activity reach our eastern Panhandle and southwest
Nebraska zones. Will insert a slight chance mention of thunder in
our west but probabilities will be capped at 15% with measurable
rainfall expected. Lows will once again be on the mild side with
upper 30s in the north to middle 40s south and west.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026
Sunday/Monday...low amplitude ridging will establish itself across
the Central Plains by early Sunday. With persistent warmth and h85
temperatures ranging from the upper teens to lower 20s degC, expect
the warmest two days of the week. Westerly downsloping winds will
promote warming and drying of the descending air which will result
in well above normal temperatures and dry air. Forecast highs will
reach the upper 70s/upper 80s Sunday, with further climbs to the
80s/near 90F by Monday. With the dry airmass in place, elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions appear probable each day with
marginal winds limiting concern on Sunday. These winds should
increase come Monday, particularly across the Sandhills, where west
winds may gust 30-35 mph. It`s these stronger winds with the
anticipated critically low humidity that bears watching in the
coming days for potential fire weather headlines.
Tuesday/Wednesday...troughing will arrive onto the Northern Plains
by early Tuesday with subsequent height falls extending south
through the Central Plains. This will force a cold front south
through South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. Recent trends have
been to quicken the arrival of this feature and as a result,
forecast highs for Tuesday have fallen sharply. Values range from
the middle 40s north to middle 50s south, or approximately 5-10F
below normal. Precipitation chances will return to the area in the
immediate post-frontal airmass. NBM probabilities remain limited
with only 10-20% potential for exceeding 0.10" of liquid in the
morning with overnight EPS/GEFS output painting even lower
potentials. Later in the day, a more upslope component to surface
winds could reinvigorate precipitation potential. This appears
likely to favor the far southwestern Panhandle, however. While only
a glancing blow from high pressure is expected, temperatures will
remain on the cooler side for Wednesday with a return to east-
southeasterly flow. Highs will favor the lower 50s for most, or
similarly 5-10F below normal.
Thursday and beyond...relative zonal flow will continue beyond
midweek with a more pronounced trough set to approach the Pacific
Northwest around the early Thursday timeframe. The result is
increasingly diffluent flow and continuing spotty precipitation
potential. While the bulk of any upper-level dynamics will largely
miss western Nebraska to the northwest, a trailing surface front
will interact with richer moisture advecting north from the Gulf and
lead to more expansive rain and thunderstorm potential late week.
Unfortunately, this all but likely will largely remain east of the
forecast area but will stand to benefit someone from the recent dry
spell. It`s worth noting that heading into Friday and Saturday,
roughly half of the ensemble members within the GEFS product
advertise an appreciable surface low in the I-35 vicinity with a
deformation band somewhere over central and western Nebraska. While
this is unlikely to be a drought buster, it could serve to improve
local drought and fire conditions so stay tuned. In the wake of any
storm system, expect temperatures to rebound to milder values though
certainty in timing of this remains low as extended guidance shows
large differences in the upper-level pattern.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026
Low-level winds shear will be of concern from 09Z until 14Z as
strong south to southwest winds to 50kts increase just off the
surface. Otherwise, surface winds will increase from the south
overnight, and become strong and gusty by around sunrise and
persist into through this afternoon with gusts to 35kts. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion