538
FXUS63 KLBF 202327
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
627 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures remain around 20 to 25 degrees above normal the
next few days, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
- A dry line on Wednesday brings multiple weather risks. West
of the dry line, near critical to critical fire weather
conditions are possible due to low humidity and gusty winds.
East of the dry line, thunderstorms are possible, with the
risk for some storms to be severe.
- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop
Thursday, with elevated concerns continuing into Friday.
- Increasing precipitation chances for the weekend, along with
cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Winds are expected to decrease this evening as a low level inversion
develops across the region. Afterwards, fairly light and variable
winds are expected across the region. With the lighter winds
overnight, critical fire weather conditions are also expected to
decrease. However, relative humidity recovery overnight will be
poor, with humidity values only rebounding around 40 to 50 percent.
Upper level ridging and anomalous 850 mb temperatures remain in
place over the next few days, which will help bring our daily highs
into the upper 80s to lower 90s. These temperatures remain roughly
20 to 25 degrees above seasonal average for late April across
western and north central Nebraska. The poor overnight humidity
recovery combined with well above average temperatures will lead to
very low humidity values across western and north central Nebraska
tomorrow. In fact, most areas are expected to see afternoon humidity
values fall to less than 15 percent, with potential for single digit
relative humidity values across southwest Nebraska. Winds are
expected to remain on the lighter side tomorrow, with winds mostly
between a southwesterly to southeasterly direction. Peak gusts are
expected to be around 20 mph for a few hours in the afternoon.
Despite the anomalous heat and very low humidity, the lighter winds
should limit critical fire weather concerns for tomorrow. However,
this combination of hot, dry conditions even with the light wind
will bring at least elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions. Although conditions do not appear to be critical
tomorrow, care should still be taken with any flame or spark source!
Attention then turns to Wednesday, which looks to be an active
weather day across western and north central Nebraska. Model
guidance continues to suggest a strong push of moisture across
eastern and central Nebraska, which may bring dewpoints in the 50s
across the region. To the west, very low dewpoints are expected,
which will set up a dry line across western Nebraska. While
confidence is high in a dry line developing across the region,
confidence in the placement of the dry line remains low.
For areas west of the dry line, expect afternoon relative
humidity values in the 10 to 20 percent range. This low
humidity combined with well above seasonal temperatures and very
gusty southerly winds are expected to create near critical to
critical fire weather concerns, with greatest concern across
western Nebraska. Will continue to keep a close eye on forecast
trends, but as for now, expecting winds of 20 to 25 mph out of
the south, with peak gusts up to 45 mph through the afternoon
hours. Currently, there are no fire weather headlines in effect
for the North Platte CWA for Wednesday. However, headlines may
be needed in the next few forecast cycles, especially if
confidence can increase in the dry line location. As with today,
regardless of whether a watch or warning is in effect, extreme
care should be taken with any flame or spark producing sources!
To the east of the dry line, expecting more ample low level moisture
and very warm surface temperatures. The very warm temperatures, even
with more ample dewpoints, will cause areas of lower relative
humidity. This area of low humidity will also experience gusty
winds, so cannot completely rule out a fire weather threat ahead of
the dry line. However, given the better moisture, there is
suggestion of convective initiation along the dry line, and the
current forecast soundings and hodographs suggest that supercells
will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, there is
still a fair amount of uncertainty in not only where the dry line
sets up, but also on how much mixing occurs along the dry line. This
will largely impact where thunderstorms develop as well as any
potential severe threats with thunderstorms. For what it is worth,
the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of
5) for most of southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills for Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Will continue to keep an eye on forecast
trends, especially as models come into better agreement on the
placement of this dry line. Either way, something to keep in mind is
the potential for lightning with these potential storms.
Precipitation amounts remain uncertain, so lightning could pose
additional fire concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
The upper level trough will eject north of the region on Thursday,
with the associated deep low pressure system remaining across the
Dakotas. Behind this storm system, strong west to northwest winds
will return along with low relative humidity values in the 15 to 20
percent range across much of the area. This will likely lead to near-
critical to critical fire weather conditions developing once again.
Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 60s across the northwest
portion of the CWA to the mid 70s further southeast. A cooldown is
expected Friday, with highs in the low 50s to low 60s across the
area. Fire weather concerns could remain an issue Friday afternoon
due to low relative humidity values and gusty northwest winds.
Heading into the weekend, another southern stream trough will move
into the southwestern United States. Moisture advection ahead of
this system, along with strengthening mid-level warm air advection
and frontogenesis, could support precipitation from Saturday night
through Monday. Currently, NBM probabilities show a decent signal
for precipitation across southern portions of the CWA, while the NBM
75th and 90th percentiles suggest a more widespread precipitation
potential across the entire area.
Current model guidance places the area on the backside of this
system, so any northward or southward shift would have a
significant impact on where the better precipitation potential
sets up. There remains considerable uncertainty with this
system, but confidence is increasing in at least some
precipitation potential across the area. Highs over the weekend
will remain on the cool side, generally in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period.
The cirrus cloud deck will clear out late this evening with winds
quickly diminishing, becoming light and variable lasting
through Tuesday morning. Light southeast winds, 5 - 10 kts will
settle in mid-day Tuesday and last through the evening with some
gusts of 15 - 20 kts over north-central Nebraska possible.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026
Red Flag conditions are expected to persist the rest of this
afternoon into the evening across most of western and north central
Nebraska, especially areas north of Interstate 80. By this evening,
a low level inversion is expected to develop, which will quickly
cause winds to decrease in speed. Expecting mostly light and
variable winds overnight. While winds do decrease, relative humidity
recovery is expected to be very poor overnight, with most areas
rebounding to around 40 to 50 percent. Winds remain light tomorrow,
which should limit critical fire weather concerns. However,
temperatures climb around 20 to 25 degrees above average, with
widespread humidity values less than 15 percent. This will be cause
for at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
Tuesday afternoon.
Very breezy conditions are expected both Wednesday and Thursday,
with potential for near critical to critical fire weather conditions
both days. Wednesday`s threat will largely be driven by the location
of a dry line across western and north central Nebraska. Areas west
of the dry line have much higher confidence in reaching critical
criteria, while there is some question for areas east of the dry
line due to a potential for better moisture. Thursday, expecting dry
conditions across most of the region, with better potential to reach
critical fire weather criteria. However, much will depend on how the
weather pattern develops on Wednesday, especially if potential
thunderstorms bring wetting precipitation.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208-209-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...MRS
FIRE WEATHER...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion