241
FXUS63 KLBF 121755
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low confidence in patchy fog across portions of north central
  Nebraska early Wednesday morning.

- Moderate to high confidence in some isolated to scattered thunderstorms
  late this afternoon and evening with a slight severe risk.

- Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again
  Thursday night.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances are likely Friday into at least the first
  of the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall could occur during
  this timeframe.

- Below normal high temperatures are expected Friday through
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving into northern
Nebraska and are expected to push southeastward through the early
morning hours. Significant instability still exists across the
region which should sustain any thunderstorms moving south out of
South Dakota into Nebraska. These storms will have the potential to
produce some very large hail, as seen earlier in the evening, as
well as damaging wind gusts. These storms will quickly exit the
region by 10Z to 11Z giving way to a quieter Wednesday morning.
However, there will be a patchy fog potential behind the departing
storms across north central Nebraska. Expect some visibility
reductions to 5 miles, however, would not be surprised to still see
some lower visibilities across portions of the area that received
recent rainfall and especially in low lying areas or along river
valleys. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions if traveling
Wednesday morning across north central Nebraska. Due to the light
and relatively patchy nature, fog should dissipate by mid morning
giving way to a mostly clear and dry forecast for the morning and
early afternoon.

Active weather will persist through Thursday as a series of
disturbances impact the region. A developing low pressure system
over Kansas today will allow for some thunderstorm development
across the Nebraska region. Here, ample instability (CAPE values
close to 1000 J/kg) will exist with steep low level lapse rates as
well as strong shear providing the perfect environment for severe
storms to develop. Current expectation is that storms will initiate
by mid to late afternoon remaining discrete initially with large
hail and damaging winds as the main threats. As storms push
eastward, they will become more scattered in nature becoming more of
a heavy rain threat. At this time, not anticipating widespread
flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see rises leading
to some localized minor flooding. Storms will persist through the
overnight hours becoming dry by sunrise Thursday morning.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Thursday, with a
mostly dry forecast throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorm
chances return by late afternoon and into the evening as peak
heating occurs and instability hits a maximum. At this time,
instability does appear weaker than the past few days, but some
stronger to briefly severe storms cannot be ruled out. These storms
will be pretty short-lived, lasting only a few hours before pushing
off to the east giving way to a drier forecast through sunrise
Friday morning.

As far as temperatures go, another warm day is expected today with
highs slightly above normal (low to mid 90s south of I-80) to near
normal (mid 80s to upper 80s everywhere else). Temperatures fall
back below normals ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s on
Thursday. Overnight lows also take a dip, dropping from the low to
mid 60s tonight to the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday and Thursday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Persistent upper level ridging will remain anchored across the
southeast CONUS Friday. The center of the upper high will gradually
translate back westward into the desert southwest by early next
week. ENS/GEFS mean PWAT values are very high during this timeframe,
as monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft flows northeastward from
western Mexico on the northwest periphery of the upper level high.
ENS continues to suggest PWAT values greater than 1.7" (which would
be exceeding the the 90th percentile) will be in place both Friday
and Saturday. Several waves/pertubations will be embedded within the
southwest flow aloft, and rounds of showers and thunderstorms will
be likely Friday and Saturday. Upslope flow behind the front along
with at least some instability will set the stage for locally heavy
rainfall. Mid and upper flow supports some training/backbuilding
potential, which could localize heavy rainfall. The 11/12Z ENS mean
QPF through Monday has an average of 1.5 to 2.5 inches area wide.
Locally heavier amounts will be possible where any training or
backbuilding of occurs.

Temperatures will be below normal during the Friday through Monday
timeframe. This is due to a considerable amount of cloud cover and
easterly low-level upslope flow. High temperatures ranging from the
mid 70s to lower 80s are expected through this period. Some
moderation is expected Tuesday with most areas in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon before increasing
impacts from convection arrive from the west at both terminals.

Timing of convection arrival is somewhat uncertain but generally
favors the early evening for both sites. Some late afternoon
potential will exist but confidence is too low to mention at
this time. While some severe convection is possible with strong
outflow winds and hail possible, all activity should be capable
of heavy rain and will likely lead to at least low-end MVFR if
not IFR/LIFR conditions in brief stints. Thunderstorms should
taper off early Thursday morning but low stratus will envelope
the area and should allow for at least MVFR CIGs to persist.
Some signals indicate IFR CIGs, potentially LIFR, but will defer
on inserting this mention for now until confidence increases.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion