959
FXUS63 KLBF 211910
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
210 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures remain well above average on Wednesday, with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low relative humidity is
expected across the region, with very gusty southerly winds.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of
western and north central Nebraska Wednesday afternoon.
- As a dry line tracks across western Nebraska tomorrow
afternoon and evening, thunderstorms may develop. A few of
these thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with wind and
hail as the main threats. However, little precipitation is
expected, so any thunderstorms pose a dry lightning threat.
- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions remain
possible on Thursday, as low relative humidity and gusty winds
are expected across the region.
- A pattern shift on Friday brings a return of more seasonal
temperatures across the region. Chances of precipitation
increase this weekend, though confidence in amounts remains
low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Another hot day is in store for western and north central Nebraska
tomorrow, as temperatures again climb into the upper 80s to lower
90s. These temperatures remain around 20 to 25 degrees above
seasonal average. Strong southerly flow is expected across the
region, which will bring a shallow plume of Gulf moisture. However,
even with higher dewpoints, these warm temperatures will contribute
to low relative humidity values across the region tomorrow, helping
set the stage for critical fire weather conditions. As mentioned,
strong southerly winds are expected across the region, with
sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. Given the
expanse of strong wind gusts, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch
to a Red Flag Warning, and have expanded the Warning across the
entire region.
As higher dewpoints pool to the east, very low dewpoints are
expected to the west. This will set up a dry line across western
Nebraska tomorrow afternoon, which may be the focus for thunderstorm
development in the late afternoon and evening hours. Forecast
soundings suggest fairly expansive elevated CAPE, with inverted-V
soundings across western Nebraska. Shear profiles appear supportive
of elevated supercell development in the late afternoon to early
evening, bringing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail.
However, latest model guidance continues to suggest that
precipitation amounts will be quite low with these storms, with the
higher end amounts only around one tenth of an inch. Despite
potential severe threats from storms, any thunderstorm developing
tomorrow afternoon and evening brings the risk for dry lightning
across the region, with the greatest risk currently across western
Nebraska and the Sandhills. Should also mention that this dry
lightning threat will also overlap periods covered by the Red Flag
Warning!
Humidity recovery overnight remains poor across western Nebraska,
rebounding to around 30 to 50 percent. Along and east of Highway 83,
humidity is expected to recover around 60 to 80 percent. The poor
recovery will support a strong drop off of relative humidity once
again on Thursday afternoon, with most of the region expected to see
humidity values less than 20 percent. With ridge breakdown occurring
THursday, also expect to see strong westerly winds across the region
Thursday afternoon, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, and gusts
of 30 to 45 mph. Expecting that the strongest gusts will be across
the eastern Panhandle into the western Sandhills. With this
combination of gusty winds and low humidity, expecting additional
near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the region
on Thursday afternoon. Will continue to keep an eye on forecast
trends, as additional fire weather headlines may be needed.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
As an upper level trough becomes more established over the region on
Friday, expecting a pattern shift to more seasonal temperatures and
increasing chances of precipitation this weekend. An upper level low
is expected to settle over southern Saskatchewan, keeping the trough
in place over the Intermountain West, and bringing a series of
shortwaves across the Plains. With this active weather pattern,
precipitation chances increase this weekend. Latest ensemble
guidance continues to increases confidence in precipitation chances
this weekend, with highest chances appearing to be likely on Sunday.
Latest guidance from the GEFS and Canadian ensembles bring roughly a
30 to 50 percent chance of exceeding one tenth of an inch liquid
precipitation across most of the forecast region this weekend, which
is trending higher than the past few days. Showers and thunderstorms
may start by Friday evening into the overnight hours. With cooler
overnight lows, may see a switch over to snow across northwestern
Nebraska into Saturday morning. At this time, precipitation amounts
remain uncertain, especially concerning potential snowfall in
northwest Nebraska. However, confidence is increasing in the pattern
shift as well as chances for precipitation this weekend. As the
upper level low slowly tracks into central Ontario by early week,
expect that more seasonal temperatures will prevail across the
region into early next week. Precipitation chances may also remain
in place, especially on Monday, with uncertainty building back into
the forecast by Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Winds remain mostly light out of
the southeast through southwest this afternoon, with gusts up to 20
knots across the northern Sandhills. By evening, expecting light
winds across the region. Overnight, a strengthening low level jet
develops, bringing LLWS concerns across most of western and north
central Nebraska. By the morning, better mixing develops, causing
gusty southerly winds across the region. Expecting mostly clear
skies throughout the TAF period, with a few high clouds later today.
By tomorrow morning, expecting more cloud cover tracking into the
region, with no impacts to ceilings or visibility expected through
the afternoon. Beyond this TAF period, increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms may bring localized impacts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026
Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the region on
Wednesday due to a combination of well above average temperatures,
low relative humidity, gusty southerly winds, and dry lightning.
Highs climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, and even with moisture
advection into central Nebraska, will keep relative humidity values
less than 15 to 20 percent across most of the region. Sustained
southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph are
expected. As a dry line tracks across western Nebraska tomorrow
afternoon, expect a potential for thunderstorm development by the
late afternoon into the early evening. While a few thunderstorms may
be strong to severe, with gusty, erratic winds, any developing
thunderstorms tomorrow will have the potential for dry lightning.
Humidity recovery remains poor overnight across the eastern
Panhandle and western Sandhills, and only marginally better along
and east of Highway 83. As a ridge breakdown occurs Thursday, gusty
westerly winds are expected across the region, with humidity values
once again falling to less than 15 to 20 percent. Additional near
critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday
afternoon. Beyond Thursday, a pattern shift is expected, bringing
more seasonal temperatures and increasing precipitation chances this
weekend, which should limit fire weather concerns this weekend.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion