397
FXUS63 KLBF 181138
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
538 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong, gusty northwest winds are expected across western and
north central Nebraska today. Although humidity remains above
critical fire weather thresholds, the strong gusts will allow
for elevated fire weather concerns.
- Snow showers are possible across portions of north central
Nebraska today. While accumulations are expected to remain
under one inch, the combination of existing snow and new
falling snow with gusty winds may create blowing snow and
reduced visibility.
- A mostly dry forecast is expected this week, until chances of
show showers late week. Temperatures are expected to be highly
variable and fluctuate throughout the week, with lower
confidence in forecast highs through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 423 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
A low pressure system across southern Manitoba will continue to
track southeast today, which will track a cold front across western
and north central Nebraska throughout the day. As this system pushes
through, strong, gusty northwesterly winds are once again expected
across the region. Sustained winds of 25 to 25 mph are expected,
with gusts of 50 mph or greater. Though winds are strong across the
region, these sit just under criteria for a High Wind Warning, so
have decided against issuing a headline. In a similar note, minimum
relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to remain
around 30 to 50 percent, which is above critical fire weather
thresholds. With this more abundant moisture, have decided against
any fire weather headlines this afternoon. However, these strong
wind gusts will merit at least elevated fire weather concerns, as
any fire starts may quickly spread.
Ahead of the cold front, snow showers are possible across portions
of north central Nebraska today. Accumulations are expected to
remain on the lighter side, generally under half an inch. However,
again the gusty winds bring potentially impactful conditions with
this light snow. The already existing snow cover combined with
falling snow and very gusty winds may lead to pockets of blowing
snow and reduced visibility. These conditions are expected to remain
isolated to areas in north central Nebraska, so have kept the
inherited Winter Weather Advisory localized to Boyd and Holt
counties.
Behind the cold front, a cold start is expected Monday morning, with
lows ranging from the single digits in north central Nebraska to the
low teens in western and southwestern Nebraska. Wind chills are
expected to range from the low single digits across southwest
Nebraska to around 10 to 15 below zero across north central
Nebraska. Temperatures improve slightly by Monday afternoon, with
highs ranging from the mid 20s across north central Nebraska to the
upper 30s across southwest Nebraska.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 423 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Gusty conditions are again expected on Tuesday, with west to
northwest winds across the region. The strongest winds are expected
across portions of the Panhandle, where gusts up to 30 mph are
possible. A warm front will bring warmer conditions across portions
of the region, particularly regions out west, where highs could
reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. This will also be accompanied by
lower relative humidity, down around 20 percent in western Nebraska.
The combination of warmer temperatures, low humidity, and gusty
winds may cause elevated to near critical fire weather concerns
Tuesday afternoon.
The rest of the week, upper level ridging attempts to set up over
western Nebraska, but a series of shortwaves keeps bringing shots of
cooler air across north central Nebraska. This set up brings
competing air masses across the region, with highly variable
temperatures expected throughout the week. Confidence in high
temperatures is relatively low, especially mid week and beyond.
Spreads in the NBM 25th and 75th percentile are generally around a
10 to 20 degree difference on daily highs, especially late week.
Much will depend on how the upper level pattern evolves throughout
the week, and timing of expected shortwaves and cold fronts.
However, there is some consistency in forecast guidance on a fairly
dry forecast this week. Little to no precipitation is expected,
outside perhaps a glancing blow across far southwest Nebraska Monday
evening. Seeing some consistency in both the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic models on an arctic front late week into the weekend,
which is expected to usher in cooler temperatures and a chance of
snow showers. At this time, will continue to monitor forecast trends,
until confidence increases on timing of the potential late week
system.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
A cold front tracks through the region today, with a low pressure
system tracking to the east. This will create strong, gusty
northwest winds across western and north central Nebraska today.
Additionally, stratus tracks into the region, introducing MVFR
ceilings across portions of north central Nebraska. Later this
morning, snow showers are expected across portions of north central
Nebraska, and given the existing snowpack and new falling snow, the
gusty winds will create areas of reduced visibility. By evening,
expecting a region wide return to VFR conditions, however, surface
winds may remain gusty until at least midnight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ007-
010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion