124
FXUS63 KLBF 102101
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
401 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight,
  some might be strong to severe

- Red Flag Warning through this evening for far western Nebraska

- Gusty winds continue on Thursday with cooler temperatures

- Brief warm-up Friday, cooler into the weekend with some
  precipitation chances

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The main concern in the short term is the fire weather
concern this afternoon and storm development late this evening into
the overnight. Across western Nebraska drier conditions will exist,
generally west of HWY 61, where dew points are in the 30s leading to
min RH around 10 to 15 percent. Winds will also remain breezy out of
the west around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Looking at
local observations from rainfall yesterday into the overnight,
although there were scattered storms across western Nebraska, the
rainfall amounts were low. Given the lower rainfall amounts across
western Nebraska, the low RH and the gusty winds this afternoon, a
decision was made to issue a Red Flag warning for this afternoon
into the early evening for fire weather zone 204.

As far as thunderstorm development late this evening into the
overnight, confidence remains low in just how much convection will
develop this evening. The 18z sounding showed marginal elevated CAPE
with drier air at the sfc, decreasing confidence in evening
development. Still do expect a LLJ to develop tonight and
interact with a frontal boundary, however the frontal boundary
may push further south of the area than expected, lowering
confidence in storm development across the CWA. However there
still remains some potential for some elevated development as
the instability increases. Although think the threat for
strong/severe potential will be relatively low, still can`t rule
out a potential for a supercell to develop, but latest trends
have continued pushing that threat eastward, with just a
marginal threat for elevated thunderstorms to develop. If a
thunderstorms were to develop with the strengthening LLJ given
the latest sounding, the dry air near the sfc and the weak
elevated CAPE will likely confine the hazard to mainly a strong
wind potential, although there is a remote chance of hail as a
secondary threat.

For Thursday, much cooler temperatures expected with CAA behind the
cold front. Drier conditions are also expected, although there could
be some early morning thunderstorms, beyond the morning hours a
mostly dry day is expected with dew points in the 30s to 40s. High
temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the low to mid 70s
across much of the forecast area. Winds will remain gusty behind
the cold front out of the northwest around 15 to 25 mph
sustained with gusts of 35 mph or greater possible, with the
strongest winds across the western and northwest Sandhills.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A warm front is expected to move in across western Nebraska on
Friday with WAA greatest across western Nebraska. Will see
temperatures in the 90s across western Nebraska and in the upper
80s across north central Nebraska. Could see the potential for
near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions
across western Nebraska. Dew points decrease across western
Nebraska through the afternoon and min RH will drop around 10 to
15 percent in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the southwest
around 20 to 25 mph sustained and could see gusts up to 40 to 45
mph. Will see a couple disturbances this weekend move across
the area and could see precipitation chances late Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through most of the forecast
period. There is a chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development overnight, the exact location of where storms will
form is still uncertain, but greater likelihood at this time
storms will form across the southern Sandhills, with a greater
concern of impact at KLBF terminal at this time. Winds will
remain gusty this afternoon, generally out of the west around 15
to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts, potentially stronger across
western Nebraska. Winds will diminish this evening and
overnight and be light around 10 kts or less. Winds will switch
to the northwest in the morning and increase during the morning
hours around 10 to 20 kts sustained and gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion