402
FXUS63 KLBF 260837
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will remain possible through mid morning across the
  forecast area with gradual clearing from west to east today.
  Readings will reach into the 70s for Saturday and Sunday
  under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Some low cloudiness
  and fog may work into the area tonight into early Sunday
  morning.

- The next round of rainfall arrives Monday afternoon and Monday
  night. Another system mid-week (Wednesday and Thursday) will
  have to be monitored. At this time, it appears the rainfall
  from that may stay south and southeast of the area. Near
  normal highs Sunday and Monday will give way to below normal
  readings Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Short Term...Today through Sunday...Behind an exiting mid level
trough of low pressure, subsidence will push into western portions
of the forecast area this morning, transitioning into the eastern
forecast area during the afternoon hours. Fog will be prevalent by
daybreak this morning mainly east of highway 61. As a surface trough
begins to track east this morning, a shift in wind direction to the
west with passage of this feature, will bring clearing skies to
western areas this morning and eastern areas by afternoon. With
afternoon clearing, highs will reach into the 70s with some lower
80s possible over SW Nebraska. For tonight, surface high pressure
will build from Montana into the western Dakotas. At the same time,
surface low pressure off to the southwest of the forecast area, will
lead to light easterly and southeasterly winds tonight. This setup
will advect moisture west overnight, leading to a decent threat for
stratus and fog development overnight. The latest SREF ensembles, as
well as the NBM visibility ensemble forecast indicates a strong
signal for fog development generally east of a line from Ogallala to
Valentine. The combination of expected cloud cover and fog tonight,
will lead to fairly mild lows for this time of year.
Climatologically, LBF should see a low around 45 degrees for the
last week of September. This is 10 degrees below the forecast low of
55 for LBF tonight. On Sunday the latest NAM12 soln retains easterly
and southeasterly winds. With this setup, wouldn`t be surprised if
we hold onto cloud cover longer than what is expected for this
afternoon. That being said, the current forecast highs of 70s on
Sunday, may be on the warm side and may need to be trended downward
if current model trends continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Southwest flow aloft begins to strengthen Monday ahead of a closed
upper trough that will digging southeastward across California
toward the Desert Southwest. Leeward troughing will deepen through
the day across the western High Plains, with a moist southeast low-
level flow in place to the east of the troughing across the area.
Surface dew points around 60F should be in place, which is rather
impressive for the end of September. PWATS will be on the increase
once again due to a combination of low-level Gulf moisture, and mid
and upper-level sub-tropical moisture being pulled northeastward
from Mexico and the Desert Southwest. ECMWF ENS average mean PWATS
will be around 1.1 inches Monday afternoon. As a weak shortwave
advances across the area Monday afternoon into Monday night,
convection is likely to develop near the leeward trough Monday
afternoon across western Nebraska within the moist up-slope flow
regime. Aided by the weak shortwave and a modest southerly low-level
jet, convection should grow upscale as it moves eastward across the
area Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall rates could become a
concern due to the anomalously high amount of moisture that will be
in place. ECMWF ENS 24 hour mean QPF totals ending at 7am Tuesday
are in the 0.2 to 0.4 tenth of an inch range. The heaviest mean
totals around 0.4" reside across southwest into central Nebraska.
There will likely be localized heavier amounts greater than 1" in
spots.

As we move toward the middle of the week the weather remains
unsettled. The Desert Southwest closed upper trough will swing
eastward toward the Southern Plains. At the same time, the remnants
of Hurricane Polo and it`s associated tropical moisture, will be
pulled northeast and become absorbed into the upper circulation of
the upper low. There continues to be low confidence on how this
could affect us. The consensus seems to be that most of the rainfall
(potentially heavy) will focus south and southeast of our area
Wednesday and Thursday. This is largely due to strong northern
stream energy (westerly flow aloft) across the Northern Plains. This
essentially helps steer upper low tracking in a more easterly
direction across the Southern Plains. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Expect low stratus and fog to impact both the KLBF and KVTN
terminals overnight thorugh mid morning Saturday. Ceilings will
range from 300 to 700 FT AGL at both terminals with visbys as
low as 1sm at the KLBF terminal and 3sm at the KVTN terminal.
Skies will gradually clear late morning with skc to scattered
25000 cloud cover expected into Saturday evening.

Beyond the forecast period Saturday evening, there will be a
decent threat for fog formation overnight Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion