416
FXUS63 KLBF 192319
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions expected across western
  Nebraska, the Sandhills, and north central Nebraska tomorrow.
  Very low humidity values are expected, with winds gusting in
  excess of 25 mph, and well above normal temperatures.

- Very warm temperatures are expected through mid week, with
  daily highs roughly 20 to 25 degrees above seasonal average.
  This will also bring daily fire weather concerns.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon
  and evening as a dry line tracks across western Nebraska. The
  severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

- Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely again on
  Wednesday and Thursday, with low humidity behind the dry line
  and gusty winds across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Skies are expected to remain mostly clear tonight, with a steady
southeast wind across most of the region. This steady wind should
help keep temperatures right around the freezing mark overnight.
While not as cold as the previous few nights, this may still get
cool enough to harm sensitive plants and vegetation. After very dry
conditions across western Nebraska today, expecting poor humidity
recovery across the Panhandle tonight, with humidity values
returning around 50 to 60 percent. Further to the east, humidity
recovery will be slightly better, around the 60 to 75 percent range.
This will help to set the stage for tomorrow`s fire weather concern.

Upper level ridging and warm 850 mb temperatures set up across the
region tomorrow, which will allow for a quick warm up during the
morning hours. By the afternoon, expecting that highs break into the
low 80s across most of the region, roughly 20 degrees above seasonal
average. With the relatively poor humidity recovery overnight and
quickly warming temperatures in the morning, humidity is expected to
drop rapidly, reaching critical fire weather thresholds by the late
morning. Areas west of Highway 83 are expected to drop around 10
percent or less, with areas east of Highway 83 between 12 to 20
percent. A low pressure system is expected to track across western
Nebraska tomorrow, increasing winds out of the south during the
morning. By the afternoon, expecting a shift to more westerly winds.
However, these winds are expected to reach gusts around 25 to 30
mph, with the strongest gusts generally north of Interstate 80. With
the combination of hot, dry, windy conditions yet again, have issued
a Red Flag Warning for areas north of Interstate 80 for tomorrow
afternoon into the early evening.

By the evening, winds are expected to weaken across the region.
However, humidity recovery remains poor, with values returning
around 50 to 60 percent across the region. Overnight lows continue
to trend warmer, with lows mostly in the lower 40s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Temperatures remain well above seasonal through mid week, as upper
level ridging and anomalous 850 mb temperatures persist. Both
Tuesday and Wednesday, highs are expected to push into the mid to
upper 80s, with potential for some sites across western and north
central Nebraska to break into the lower 90s. These highs remain
around 20 to 25 degrees above average. With highs remaining well
above average, expect to see low relative humidity each afternoon,
approaching and dropping below critical fire weather thresholds. The
heat and low humidity will be cause for at least elevated to near
critical fire weather concerns both days, with winds being the
limiting factor. For Tuesday, winds appear lighter across the region,
which may prevent critical fire weather thresholds being reached.
However, by Wednesday, the chances for critical fire weather
conditions increase again. Gusty southerly winds are expected across
the region, which will largely drive the fire weather concern.
However, there remains some uncertainty on moisture availability
throughout the day, as a plume of deep moisture is expected across
eastern and central Nebraska. This will cause a dry line set up
across western Nebraska, and the location of this dry line will
largely determine the weather on Wednesday. For now, best chances of
critical fire weather appear to be across western Nebraska and the
Sandhills, but much will depend on the location of the dry line,
which may bring concerns further east.

Wednesday`s dry line also brings chances for showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the forecast region, most likely
for areas along and east of Highway 83. As with the fire weather
concerns, much will depend on the location of the dry line to
determine best chances for convective initiation. Will also need to
keep a close eye on the moisture plume across eastern and central
Nebraska. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models suggest
dewpoints in the 50s across the central Nebraska, with the latest
ECMWF run bringing this as far west as the Panhandle. However, both
models are in agreement of a strong dry line pushing through the
region, which may be the focus for thunderstorm activity. Forecast
soundings suggest potential for strong shear and sufficient CAPE for
some of these storms to become severe. However, there is still a
fair amount of uncertainty in both the location of the moisture and
dry line, which will have large impacts on the thunderstorm
forecast. At this time, will continue to monitor forecast trends as
guidance comes into consensus, but certainly appears that Wednesday
afternoon and evening could bring impactful weather across the
region, whether as storms or fire weather or a combination of both.

An upper level trough tracks across the western United States on
Thursday, bringing a more active weather pattern and a return to
more seasonal temperatures. Very windy conditions are expected
Thursday afternoon, bringing additional fire weather concerns late
week. Additionally, humidity remains low behind the dry line
passage, furthering the fire weather concern. At this time, the set
up appears favorable for near critical to critical fire weather
conditions, but will need to see how the weather pattern evolves on
Wednesday to determine exact locations for concerns.

Late week into the weekend, upper level troughing keeps us in a
fairly active weather pattern. Temperatures again remain more
seasonal, to potentially cooler than seasonal temperatures across
parts of the region. With the active pattern, expecting a near daily
chance for precipitation, around a 30 percent chance each day. This
may bring some chances for rain and snow showers. However, ensemble
guidance points to this likely being low end amounts. Probabilities
for one hundredth of an inch liquid precipitation are generally
around a 20 to 40 percent chance in the GEFS and European ensembles,
with amounts over one tenth of an inch only highlighted on Sunday,
again around a 30 percent chance. However, this may at least be a
period in the extended forecast to keep an eye on for precipitation
chances, given the active pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow evening
across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds shift
from southeast to south overnight, becoming southwest early
tomorrow afternoon. Gusty southwest winds are then expected
tomorrow, with gusts of 20 to 25kts for terminals along and
north of Interstate 80.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Relatively poor humidity recovery occurs overnight, ranging from 50
to 60 percent across western Nebraska and 60 to 70 percent further
east. As temperatures quickly climb in the morning, humidity is
expected to drop off quickly, reaching critical fire weather
thresholds across most of the region by late morning. Critical winds
appear most likely for areas north of Interstate 80, with highest
gusts across the Sandhills. With this in mind, have issued a Red
Flag Warning across western and north central Nebraska, as well as
the Sandhills.

Humidity recovery is again poor overnight Monday night into Tuesday
morning, leading to low humidity across the region. However, lighter
winds on Tuesday should keep conditions just below critical values.
Still, expect at least elevated to near critical concerns on
Tuesday. By Wednesday, much gustier conditions are expected, raising
concerns to near critical to critical. However, the location of a
dry line will largely determine the areal extent of fire weather
concerns. Thursday similarly sees low humidity and gusty winds
across most of the region, but much depends on how Wednesday`s
weather pattern evolves.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for NEZ204-206-208-209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion