702
FXUS63 KLBF 112005
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
305 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy smoke across western Nebraska from wildfire in the
  Panhandle this evening

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions on Friday with a Red Flag
  Warning

- Gusty Winds Friday and Saturday

- Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday into Monday behind a
  strong cold front, with highs mainly in the 60s and lower 70s.

- A warming trend returns by midweek, with highs climbing back
  into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the fire weather
concern Friday along with gusty winds both Friday and Saturday,
along with a patchy smoke concern. As for today, the rest of the
afternoon winds will continue to be strong out of the northwest
brining smoke from the South Fork fire across the Panhandle
into portions of western Nebraska. The HRRR keeps the near-sfc
smoke patchy across portions of Garden, Keith, Deuel, and
Perkins counties through the evening hours. Near-sfc smoke is
not anticipated to be thick and degrade any sfc visibility thus
any impact will be minor and brief and generally before late
evening.

As for Friday, strong southwesterly winds and WAA will warm
temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s. The warmest
temperatures will be across western NE along the nose of the
850mb thermal ridge were temperatures in the low 90s will be
expected. Southwesterly winds will begin to increase by mid to
late morning, which is supported by RAP soundings. Forecaster
confidence is high that strong winds sustained around 20 to 30
mph will be expected with the strongest winds across western
Nebraska into the western Sandhills. Winds gusts up to 45 mph is
expected, however there is the potential, depending how deep we
mix that we could potentially see some stronger sfc wind gusts
as there are winds greater than 50 kts in the mid levels across
western Nebraska. Given the strong winds in combination with low
min RH values around 10 to 15 percent across western Nebraska a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of western
Nebraska, for more information regarding fire weather see the
fire weather section below.

There still remains a very low chance for some overnight convection
as the LLJ strengthens Friday night, as instability increase, but
confidence at this time remains low and coverage is expected to
remain minimal, generally just a small portion of the cwa, mostly
just portions of Custer County into Blaine and Loup and potentially
Garfield and Wheeler, with the greatest chance for overnight
convection Friday night into Saturday across central Nebraska.

As for Saturday, a cold front will move south across the area
keeping temperatures cooler with highs only in the 70s. Winds will
be strong out of the north around 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to
40 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Sunday, a deep upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes
region, resulting in northwest flow across the region. This will
allow a strong cold front for this time of year to move through the
area and push south of the region by Sunday morning. Behind the
front, mid-level cold air advection will continue, keeping
precipitation chances south and east of the area. It will remain
quite cloudy throughout the day Sunday, and with continued cold air
advection and northerly winds, highs may struggle to climb out of
the 60s across much of the area. The NBM 50th percentile continues
to show highs near 70 degrees, while the NBM 25th percentile remains
in the mid to upper 60s, which appears more reasonable given the
expected cloud cover and cold air advection. In terms of fire
weather concerns, relative humidity values may fall as low as 20
percent across portions of north-central Nebraska. However, with
wind speeds generally in the 5 to 15 mph range and recent rainfall
over the past few weeks, fire weather concerns should remain low.
Lows Sunday night will remain quite cool, with temperatures in the
lower 40s across the Sandhills and mid to upper 40s farther south
and east, which is around 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this
time of year.

Monday, northwest flow aloft will continue to strengthen across the
region as the upper level trough over the Great Lakes deepens. This
will support a secondary surge of cooler air through the area during
the day Monday. Model guidance does indicate some mid-level warm air
advection and frontogenesis as a shortwave dives south from the
longwave trough over the eastern United States. This could result in
some precipitation chances across the southern portion of the
forecast area. With cooler temperatures in place, any precipitation
would likely be showery in nature and no thunderstorms or severe
weather would be expected. There remains considerable uncertainty
with this scenario, and it currently appears the better
precipitation chances would remain south across Kansas. Highs on
Monday are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s, with lows
Monday night in the mid to upper 40s.

Tuesday and beyond, the trough over the Great Lakes will slowly
shift east while the ridge across the western United States begins
to nudge eastward. This will promote low to mid-level warm air
advection and increasing downslope flow off the Rockies. As a
result, a warming trend is expected, with highs returning to the
upper 80s and lower 90s by Tuesday into late next week. Relative
humidity values may fall into the teens each afternoon, leading to
possible increasing fire weather concerns, particularly across the
Sandhills. While forecast winds currently remain modest, patterns
such as this often trend stronger with the wind speeds as the period
approaches. Therefore, the mid to late next week period will
continue to be monitored closely for increasing fire weather
concerns. Overnight lows will also moderate, with temperatures
generally returning to the mid to upper 50s. Overall, the pattern
through mid to late next week appears predominantly dry and does not
currently support meaningful or widespread precipitation chances
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. There will
be strong winds through the day with northwest winds around 20
to 25 kts sustained and gusts of 30 kts or more possible.
Strongest winds will be across western Nebraska. Winds will
diminish this evening, then become light and variable in the
overnight. Winds will shift to the southwest around 10 to 20 kts
by late Friday morning with gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Despite recent rainfall over the past days, widespread wetting rainfall
has been sparse across fire weather zone 204. Partners across western
Nebraska have said fuels remain partially cured for the area, thus
after collaboration a decision was made to issue a RFW for fire
weather zone 204. Leading into Friday`s critical fire weather
concerns, overnight recover tonight will be poor with only 65 to
75% RH expected during the overnight period, thus made an
earlier start time for the RFW, beginning at 10am MDT Friday,
correlating with winds the winds start to increase. Elsewhere,
recent wetting rains will keep fire weather conditions low,
however strong southerly winds with gusts up to 45 mph will
still be expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for NEZ204.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion