222
FXUS63 KLBF 231126
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
526 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal highs will continue today across the forecast
  area, albeit only 15 to 20 degrees above normal vs. the 25 to
  30 degrees above normal seen on Monday.

- Very warm temperatures will continue Wednesday through Friday
  with the best potential for widespread record high
  temperatures on Christmas Eve and possibly on Christmas Day.

- Cooler air will push into the region Saturday with a sharp cooldown
  on Sunday. After highs Saturday in the 40s and lower 50s,
  Sunday int he 30s, temperatures will rebound back into the
  upper 30s to middle 40s for Monday.

- Dry conditions are likely over the next 7 days.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

H5 analysis tonight had low amplitude ridging over the central
portion of the CONUS. Closed low pressure was off the coast of
central British Columbia. Southwest of this feature WV imagery
indicated a decent shortwave approximately 1000 miles off the
coast of Oregon with another trough noted around 1500 miles off
the coast of southern California. Further east, a shortwave
trough was noted over southern portions of Saskatchewan and
Manitoba. Satellite imagery overnight continues to indicate a
broad plume of mid and upper level moisture extending from
California, northeast into the northern Rockies and southwestern
Canada. Across western and north central Nebraska overnight,
some wave cirrus was noted over the western third of Nebraska.
Some of this cloudiness continues to slowly work into the
western Sandhills overnight. With the exception of the western
third of the forecast area, skies were generally mostly clear to
partly cloudy and temperatures as of 2 AM CT, ranged from 29
degrees at Gordon to 51 degrees at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

The weak disturbance over south central Canada, mentioned
above, will force a weak back door cool front into north central
and northeastern portions of the forecast area this morning.
This front will begin to lift north as a warm front later
tonight. In the meantime, highs this afternoon will range from
around 50 degrees in the northeastern forecast area, to the
lower 60s in SW Nebraska. As mentioned above, the back door cold
front will lift northeast overnight as a warm front.
Temperatures will be very mild, especially over northern
portions of the forecast area, where mid and upper level cloud
cover will be more prevalent overnight. Lows tonight across
northern Nebraska will be in the middle to upper 30s with
readings in the upper 20s to around 30 in SW Nebraska where sky
cover will be more limited. Warmer air will push into the
forecast area behind the exiting warm front Wednesday. By
afternoon, widespread H85 temps of 14 to 17C are noted across
the forecast area per the latest NAM12 and GFS deterministic
models. The latest NBM forecast for highs Wednesday is on the
low end of the inter-quartile range for its forecast. For highs,
went ahead and blended the NBM with the 75%ile, which brought
highs more in line with the MET and MAV guidance for tomorrow.
Believe this is a safe play given the strong signal from the EC
EFI and SOT forecast which has better than the 99%ile for highs
and a SOT of 1-2 for tomorrow. As for record highs tomorrow,
based on the current forecast, they will be shattered across the
area. For reference, record highs for tomorrow are 62, 59, 60,
and 67 respectively for North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow and
Imperial. The forecast for Wednesday`s highs are 71, 69, 69, and
69 for North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow and Imperial.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Slightly cooler H85 temps will push into the forecast area
Wednesday night into Thursday. Corresponding highs Christmas day
will range from the middle 50s in the northeast to lower to
middle 60s across the remainder of the forecast area. Record
highs Christmas day are 65 at North Platte and Valentine and 67
at Broken Bow and Imperial. H85 temps will increase 1 to 2C
across the board Friday afternoon across the area. This will
lead to a slight increase in highs for most locations Friday.
This shows up in the latest NBM and MEX statistical forecast and
is supported by the EC EFI of 90 to 95%ile forecast for highs
Friday. Record highs Friday are 66, 60, 64, and 66 for North
Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow and Imperial respectively, so one
more day of record or near record high temperatures appears
likely. A Pacific cold front Saturday, followed by a stronger,
Arctic front Saturday night, will bring temperatures back down
to "reality" for the weekend. Highs Saturday will range from the
middle 40s in the northwest, to the lower 50s in SW Nebraska.
Highs Sunday will generally be in the 30s. The arctic air will
begin to exit the area Monday with highs ranging from the middle
30s to middle 40s. No precipitation is expected over the next 7
days across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

High cloud coverage will increase over the next 24 hours with
ceilings becoming broken across northern Nebraska tonight.
Across southern Nebraska, cloud coverage will be few to
scattered over the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be around 25000
FT AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion