426
FXUS63 KLBF 030734
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
234 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated threat of showers and thunderstorms into early
  Thursday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns on Friday.

- Temperatures in the 90s continue through the weekend and into
  early next week.

- A more active weather pattern returns late this weekend
  through mid week. This will bring a return of precipitation
  chances, as well as more seasonal to slightly above seasonal
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The main concern in the short term are the thunderstorm chances
early this morning. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to
move east/northeast across the Nebraska Panhandle into portions
of western Nebraska and the Sandhills early this morning. The
environment the storms will be moving into will have DCAPE
values around 1000 to 1500 J/kg through sunrise and will support
the potential for strong, gusty winds should a storm strengthen
and sustain itself early this morning. There have already been
several reports on personal weather stations of 40 to 45 mph
wind gusts from with storms in this environment. The area of
greatest concern for stronger wind gusts will be west of HWY 83
and north of I-80. Convection should begin to taper off after
sunrise then expect the remainder of Thursday to be dry. The
upper level ridge will continue to build Thursday and Friday and
will see temperatures well above normal for this time of year,
around 10 to 15 degrees above, with highs in the 90s. Friday
will be the warmest day of the week with highs reaching the
upper 90s across southwest Nebraska. Will have to continue to
monitor if any heat headlines will be needed as highs approach
near 100 and dewpoints east of HWY 83 will be in the low 60s.

There will be elevated fire weather concerns on Friday for areas
west of HWY 83 where drier air will be in place and min RH will
range near 20 to 25 percent. Winds will also be breezy out of the
southeast around 15 to 20 mph sustained and gusts around 30 mph or
greater.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper level ridging persists on Friday night, with a shortwave
tracking through the upper level flow. This is expected to push a
surface low across the region, which may kick up a few showers and
potentially some thunderstorms overnight. Ensemble guidance
continues to suggest that these showers will produce very little
rain, with ensembles still maintaining a less than 20 percent chance
of exceeding one tenth of an inch. However, these showers may bring
a few hundredths of an inch across portions of the region.

Saturday afternoon, still expecting very warm temperatures across
the region, with highs pushing into the 90s. Another shortwave may
track through the upper level flow, bringing low end precipitation
chances during the afternoon hours. However, by the evening into the
nighttime hours, precipitation chances will increase. Guidance
continues to trend to the more progressive trough solutions, which
is prompting the earlier and increasing trends in precipitation.
Ensembles are even coming into better consensus, now bringing a 30
percent chance of exceeding one tenth of an inch Saturday night
across portions of western and north central Nebraska.

The upper level trough continues to track east on Sunday, bringing a
fairly active weather pattern through at least mid week. As the
trough approaches on Sunday, expecting stronger upper level winds to
approach the region, placing an area of divergence aloft. This will
further help a surface low to deepen, increasing precipitation
chances Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Ensemble guidance
Sunday night brings a 40 percent chance of precipitation exceeding
one tenth of an inch, which continues to be a slight upward trend
from previous runs.

As the upper level trough continues to track to the northeast,
expecting to see slight ridging across the south, with the trough
riding the north end of the ridge. This is expected to place the
stronger upper level winds across South Dakota, with several
shortwaves tracking through the flow. With the stronger upper level
support, will see continued precipitation chances, especially in the
evening and overnight hours through at least mid week. With subtle
ridging remaining across the southern United States, expect to see
more seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures return. In
general, expecting the warmer temperatures to remain across the
southern portions of the region, but even then, this may be around 5
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. A few high
based rain showers are tracking across western Nebraska tonight and
are expected to persist through the overnight hours. As these move
out of the area, expect mostly clear skies with westerly winds
through the afternoon. Winds across the Sandhills and portions of
north central Nebraska may get gusty, with gusts up to 20 knots
throughout the day. By the evening, expecting gusts to stop as an
inversion develops.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion