822
FXUS63 KLBF 271900
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
200 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening,
especially across north-central and central Nebraska, with
large to very large hail and damaging winds the primary
threats. Significant wind gusts of 75 mph or greater are
possible.
- Additional thunderstorm chances persist Friday through early
next week, though the severe threat and coverage will vary
each day.
- Hot temperatures return this weekend, with Saturday the
hottest day. Highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s, low humidity,
and gusty winds may also result in elevated fire weather
conditions across western Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
This afternoon into the evening, the severe weather threat remains
on track across much of the area. Southerly low-level flow is
maintaining increased moisture across the region early this
afternoon. Some mixing of surface dew points may occur through peak
heating, though ample low-level moisture should remain to support
considerable instability. Current satellite imagery shows a mid to
upper-level disturbance moving across Montana into Wyoming, which
will continue southeast along the northern periphery of an upper-
level ridge centered across the southwestern United States.
Increasing large-scale ascent associated with this disturbance,
combined with strengthening low-level convergence, should provide
sufficient forcing for thunderstorm development initially across the
Black Hills and southwest South Dakota this afternoon. Across the
forecast area, the severe weather environment remains quite
favorable for this time of year. SBCAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/kg
are forecast across portions of north-central Nebraska. ECAPE values
are also quite favorable, suggesting that the combination of
instability and the wind profile will support strong, sustained
updrafts capable of efficiently utilizing the available buoyancy.
Deep-layer shear will also be favorable for organized convection,
with 0-6 km bulk shear around 40 to 45 knots. Forecast hodographs
show some low-level curvature, particularly as the low-level jet
strengthens this evening, while the mid and upper portions of the
hodograph remain relatively long and largely characterized by speed
shear. Current thinking is that thunderstorms developing across
southwest South Dakota will initially favor discrete supercells
before moving southeast into north-central Nebraska within the
northwest flow regime. These initial supercells will be capable of
producing large to very large hail given the combination of strong
instability, favorable ECAPE, and sufficient deep-layer shear.
Previous analogs and similar synoptic patterns also lend support to
the potential for significant hail. With time, storm interactions
should favor upscale growth into one or more line segments as
convection moves southeast into western and central Nebraska. This
transition would favor an increasing damaging wind threat.
Significant wind gusts of 75 mph or greater will be possible given
DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, steep low-level lapse rates, and
favorable 0-3 km delta theta-e values supporting strong downdraft
potential. The tornado threat remains low, but is not zero.
Strengthening of the low-level jet this evening should result in
increasing low-level SRH and greater hodograph curvature. Any
supercell that can remain discrete could briefly take advantage of
this environment. However, forecast 4-6 km storm-relative winds
remain relatively parallel to the initiating boundary, which should
encourage storm interactions and upscale growth, limiting the
overall tornado potential. The SPC has expanded the Slight Risk
across portions of the area and has reintroduced a hatched
significant wind area in addition to the existing significant hail
area, which aligns well with the expected evolution. Current
guidance moves the primary convective activity east of the forecast
area by around midnight CDT, with predominantly dry conditions
expected into early Friday morning.
Friday, the upper-level ridge across the southwestern United States
will amplify and gradually shift eastward through the day. Another
weak disturbance is forecast to move along the northeastern
periphery of the ridge Friday afternoon into the evening. Ample
instability will remain across the area, though the strongest deep-
layer shear is forecast to remain farther north across the Dakotas.
This should favor more scattered convection across the forecast
area, with thunderstorm development also dependent on whether the
cap can be overcome during the afternoon. Another opportunity for
convection may develop Friday evening into the overnight as
thunderstorms originating across South Dakota move south into north-
central Nebraska. The SPC currently highlights this area in a
Marginal Risk. At this time, damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall appear to be the primary threats, though forecast trends
will continue to be monitored. Southerly winds will also strengthen
through the day, resulting in gusty conditions across much of the
area. Highs Friday will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with
overnight lows remaining in the lower to middle 60s.
Saturday, the upper-level ridge will continue shifting eastward into
the south-central United States. This will establish southwesterly
flow in the 850-700 mb layer, resulting in stronger warm air
advection across the region. Forecast 850-mb temperatures rise into
the 30 to 35C range, which is well above normal for this time of
year. Strong daytime mixing should allow much of this warmth to
reach the surface, making Saturday the hottest day of the forecast
period. Highs are expected to reach the middle 90s to lower 100s.
Given the recent dry conditions across southwest Nebraska,
temperatures may ultimately trend even warmer across this area. The
combination of hot temperatures, minimum relative humidity values
falling below 25 percent, and gusty southwest winds approaching 25
mph may result in elevated fire weather conditions Saturday
afternoon, particularly west of Highway 61. Another weak disturbance
may move through the region Saturday evening into the overnight
hours, providing another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms,
especially across north-central Nebraska where stronger upper-level
flow will reside. At this time, the organized severe weather threat
appears relatively low, though this will continue to be monitored
over the next several forecast cycles.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Sunday, a strong 597-dam 500-mb upper-level ridge will remain
centered across the south-central United States, while a trough
remains across the western United States. This will maintain broad
west to southwest flow aloft across the region. Warm conditions will
persist as 850-mb temperatures remain in the 25 to 30C range,
supporting afternoon highs generally in the lower to middle 90s.
Despite somewhat stronger flow aloft, precipitation chances should
remain relatively low Sunday as warm mid-level temperatures and
associated capping limit convective development. Overnight
temperatures will remain quite mild, with lows generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
Monday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to flatten and shift
farther into the southeastern United States as a weak shortwave
ejects northeastward from the western longwave trough. An associated
frontal boundary is expected to move southeast across the region
during the day, bringing cooler temperatures with highs ranging from
the middle 80s north to upper 80s south. Increasing large-scale
forcing and low-level convergence along the boundary should also
result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Monday
afternoon into the evening. Severe weather may be possible given the
potential overlap of sufficient instability and stronger deep-layer
shear. However, confidence in the magnitude and location of the
threat remains low at this range.
Tuesday into late next week, the western United States trough will
attempt to progress eastward while the upper-level ridge across the
southeastern United States begins to reamplify and expand westward.
This evolution should maintain relatively warm conditions, with
highs returning to around 90 degrees or the lower 90s by the middle
and latter portions of next week. Periodic precipitation chances
will remain possible, though the timing and coverage will depend
heavily on the strength and track of individual disturbances moving
through the flow. Overall, the long-term pattern favors the better
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into
early next week, followed by a trend toward warmer and drier
conditions by Wednesday into the latter part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026
Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
for all terminals through tomorrow afternoon. By this evening,
isolated to widely scattered storms are possible across much of
western and eventually southwest Nebraska, with a threat for
brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. These storms
exit the area tonight, though additional thunderstorm
development is possible across north central Nebraska early
tomorrow morning.
Winds remain southerly today and tonight, at 10 to 15kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Labenz
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion