261
FXUS63 KLBF 172024
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
324 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in hot, above normal temperatures returning
through Sunday with highs across north central approaching or
exceeding 100 degrees.

- High confidence in dry conditions through the weekend.

- Moderate to high confidence in return to cooler temperatures and
thunderstorms Tuesday through next Friday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Extreme heat across the region will remain the main concern through
Monday. Upper level ridging will remain in place keeping strong
surface high pressure over the central US. With warm air advection
pushing 850 mb temperatures in the 23 to 29 C range on Saturday,
expect highs to generally be in the mid to upper 90s. A surge of
even warmer 850mb temperatures in the 30 to 35 C range arrives on
Sunday and Monday resulting in the warmest temperatures we`ve seen
this past week. This will likely push highs into the upper 90s to
low 100s, with heat indicies into the 100 to 105 range. Looking at
the latest probabilities, the potential of hitting 100 degrees or
higher is currently 75 to 80 percent across northern and portions of
north central Nebraska (generally along and north of US-20) on
Sunday. This same probability extends further to the south (north of
I-80) on Monday. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT
guidance, the EFI is relatively high (0.7 to 0.8), but SoT is fairly
low. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very hot,
unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high
temperatures on Monday. Speaking of records, they remain generally
on the higher end at 107, 110, 108, and 116 at North Platte,
Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial respectively. Regardless, with
increasing probabilities and confidence in higher temperatures, have
increased highs slightly for both days. With these extreme
temperatures and heat indicies, have also gone ahead and issued heat
advisories across much of north central and portions of southwest
Nebraska. On Sunday, the advisory remains limited to north central
where the highest temperatures are expected. This advisory across
the north remains in effect through the Sunday overnight period as
overnight lows only drop into the mid to upper 70s keeping nighttime
temperatures relatively uncomfortable. The heat advisory then gets
expanded to the south and west along the I-80 corridor and into
southwest Nebraska. There may be additional adjustments to the going
advisories over the next few days, so stay tuned to the latest
forecasts.

There are some concerns, though, with the high temperatures on
Monday. While the probabilities seem to suggest higher temperatures,
and confidence is indeed high, there will be a cold front passage on
Monday. The latest model trends have been bringing the front, and
colder temperatures behind it, through earlier in the day, which may
limit some of the extremely high temperatures, especially across the
north. We will need to closely monitor this front as it begins to
track through central Nebraska as it may allow heat advisories to be
cancelled early if temperatures don`t rise as high as expected.

As far as precipitation goes, it will be a mostly dry forecast
through Monday night. There is a low end (less than 20 percent)
chance of some isolated showers on late afternoon and early evening
Saturday. Confidence is very low in development, but with several
CAMs suggesting some isolated albeit short-lived convection, felt it
was warranted to include in the forecast across portions of central
Nebraska. There is also some low precip chances on Monday evening
with the frontal passage. With limited moisture, any thunderstorms
that can develop will be mainly confined to the higher terrain of
the Panhandle. Therefore, only included a thunderstorm mention for
the eastern Panhandle, locations generally west of Highway 61 and
north of I-80. Not expecting severe thunderstorms, but a few
stronger storms could be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

On Tuesday, the cold front passage will allow for some cooler air to
begin to push into the region for the middle of the week lasting
through the end of the week. Highs will range from the mid 80s
across northern Nebraska to the low 90s south of I-80. Temperatures
continue to plummet through the week dropping into the mid to upper
80s through next Friday. As the pattern begins to shift, there will
also be a return to moisture and precipitation chances. With upper
level ridging across the western US, a series of disturbances will
pivot across the central Plains. This will bring near daily rain and
thunderstorm chances to the region through next Friday. While not
anticipating widespread severe thunderstorms at this time, some
stronger to briefly severe thunderstorms may be possible across the
region. Will continue to monitor the severe potential over the next
several days and make adjustments to the forecast as needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this weekend as upper level
ridging and surface high pressure remains over the region. Winds
will generally remain out of the south southeast under 10 knots.
Winds will begin to shift to the northwest Saturday morning, but
will remain calm.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Sunday to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ005>010-026>029-094.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Monday for NEZ025-036>038-057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion