115
FXUS63 KLBF 241738
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1238 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms are possible this afternoon and early
  evening, east of a line from Stockville through Brewster and
  Butte. Hail and strong wind gusts would be the main threats.

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday
afternoon. Gust winds appear to be the main threat.

- Elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday and strong southerly
  winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Today, much warmer with highs 85 to 90. West to southwest winds
across much of the area behind a surface trough. A few strong storms
may initiate after 3 PM CDT near a surface trough located from
Stockville through Brewster and Butte. 25 to 30 kts of deep layer
shear is shown to be closely perpendicular to the surface boundary.
MUCAPEs should reach 1500-2000 J/kg near and just east of this
boundary. Storms will be isolated initially, becoming more scattered as
they exit far eastern zones after 5 PM CDT. A few strong storms are
possible, with hail and strong wind gusts the main threats. SPC
outlook has a Marginal Risk of severe storms east of the surface
trough. The location of the surface trough is shown to be slightly
further east by the GFS and HRRR. Another favorable area as shown by
the RRFS, and to a less extent the NAM12 will be across the
northeastern zones, just north of the surface trough. Here,
dewpoints may pool into the upper 50s with winds remaining
southerly. A few supercells are possible, with discrete propagation,
and could be severe. Confidence in this is below average.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will develop in
the afternoon west of the surface trough. Here, warm temperatures in
the upper 80s to near 90 will combine with much drier air with
humidity values falling into the mid and upper teens Highway 83 and
west. The biggest limiting factor at this time looks to be winds,
with guidance suggesting westerly winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph.
Gust 25 mph or higher are unlikely.

Tonight, Any storms should be east of the area after 8 PM CDT.
Surface moisture will work back to the west overnight, as dewpoints
recover to the mid 40s to low 50s overnight. Lows will be in the low
to mid 50s.

Monday, very warm again with highs around 90. Surface low pressure
will deepen across Wyoming and Colorado as southerly winds increase
to 10 to 20 mph. Dewpoints will be higher in the 50s across the
southwest and east. Instability will likely exceed 2500 J/kg across
the southwest and east though deep layer shear will be fairly weak
near 20kts. The convective temperature should be reached and widely
scattered showers and storms should develop by late afternoon. With
an inverted-V sounding, gusty winds look to be the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For Tuesday warmer conditions will persist with highs in the
upper 80s. There will be some elevated fire weather concerns for
areas generally west of HWY 61, especially across the
northwest Sandhills where recent rainfalls have been light,
generally less than a quarter of an inch across the area. Min RH
values will be around 20 to 25 percent across portions of
western Nebraska. Winds will then increase late afternoon onward
out of the south. Winds will be around 15 to 25 mph sustained
in the early afternoon, becoming around 20 to 30 mph sustained
by mid afternoon. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible, with
the strongest winds generally across the central Sandhills and
western Nebraska.

An upper level closed low moves onshore Tuesday and will sit across
the SW CONUS for a couple days before it moves out, with models
differing on the movement of the system. This leads to
uncertainty with how the weather pattern will play out later
this week and will need to continue to monitor future model
runs. As the models suggest now it will set up a blocking
pattern, and although moisture returns back into the Central
Plains, only subtle weak SW disturbances will move through and
no organized convection is expected, however some weakly forced
showers and thunderstorms will still be possible daily Wednesday
through the end of the week, shear will be weak. At this time,
widespread severe weather threat is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central
Nebraska. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible east of HWY 183
this evening, with a threat for gusty, erratic winds and brief
MVFR visibilities.

A frontal boundary remains positioned across the area today,
with southerly winds gusting as high as 25 to 30kts east of HWY
183. Further west, west-northwest winds of 10 to 15kts are
expected. Winds then become southerly overnight, at 5 to 10kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion