850
FXUS63 KLBF 051144
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
544 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures are expected through Friday, with
  highs in the 50s across the region.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Tonight through Friday
  morning, with lows falling to the upper 20s. Patchy fog could
  develop in a tight corridor through the state along Hwy 83.

- Above seasonal temperatures are expected this weekend into the
  middle of next week. Little to no precipitation is expected
  during this period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Upper level flow remains fairly unchanged from previous forecasts.
There are two weakening closed lows moving across CONUS, with one
located over the Great Lakes region and the other digging across the
central Plains. The latter of the lows will move through Kansas,
keeping most of the precipitation chances out of our area. Clearing
sky cover should allow daytime highs to reach the 50s across western
and north central Nebraska, which would be on par with
climatological normals. Heading into the overnight hours, cold air
advection will remain over the area. Combine this with weak,
variable winds, should support efficient radiational cooling.
However, recent model runs have added increasing cloud cover over
our CWA heading into the early morning hours of Friday. With this
wrinkle, confidence of overnight lows dropping below the upper 20s
remains remains low. There is increasing confidence of patchy to
possibly widespread fog forming early Friday morning, where there is
a tight gradient of increased moisture generally along HWY 83. This
should be monitored closely for if it becomes more widespread and
long lasting in future forecast packages.

Heading through Friday, as one trough moves away, another quickly
crossing the Rockies takes its place over the Central Plains.
Northwesterly flow will become more westerly by the afternoon hours
Friday. This should promote more mild temperatures, as seen with
H850 temperatures being 8 to 12 degrees celsius across western
Nebraska. This along with clearing skies should promote daytime
highs in the low to mid 50s across central Nebraska, which is still
within temperatures normals for early November. A pocket of warm air
advection moving into the Panhandle will likely raise highs into the
upper 50s across western Nebraska, with a low end chance (10 - 30
percent) of cresting into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

By Saturday, an upper level low tracks across southern New Mexico,
with zonal flow in the northern stream across North Dakota. Subtle
upper level ridging is expected to develop across the northern jet
stream through the weekend. With the upper level ridging, warmer
temperatures aloft track across the region, bringing warmer
conditions at the surface. Highs this weekend are expected to push
into the mid 60s, though there still is potential for a few
locations to reach the upper 60s. This would be around 10 degrees
warmer than usual, as typical highs for this time of year are the
mid 50s. Lows this weekend drop into the mid to upper 30s, which
remains warmer than usual, as typical lows are in the mid 20s.

By Monday, a shortwave tracks across the northern Plains, but should
still have limited impacts on temperatures. Highs are still expected
to push into the mid 60s on Monday. By Tuesday, however, slightly
cooler air aloft (around 11 degC) tracks into the region following
the shortwave, which may bring a slight cool off, with highs in the
lower 60s and possibly upper 50s in locations. The northern jet
stream remains north of the region, as upper level ridging begins to
develop again with warmer temperatures aloft returning (around 14
degC). This should bring a return of similar conditions to this
weekend, with highs returning to the mid 60s. With upper level
ridging expected throughout most of the period, this should limit
any precipitation chances from this weekend into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska through the day and evening. A high cloud deck will
continue tracking south across the region this morning, with skies
gradually clearing through the day. Winds remain light out of the
north through the day, becoming light and variable by the evening.
Overnight, the combination of light and variable winds along with
low level moisture may lead to fog developing across the the region.
There is still some question on the western extent, as well as the
density of the fog, so will continue to refine the forecast on the
follow up TAFs. As the fog develops, also expect to see lowered
localized ceilings, potentially bringing IFR conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion