514
FXUS63 KLBF 162045
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
345 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms expected through this evening
across all of western and north central Nebraska, with
thunderstorms likely through the overnight hours.
- Sunday afternoon and evening brings increasing chances of
strong to severe thunderstorms over central Nebraska.
- Additional rain and thunderstorms are expected Monday, with some
severe potential lingering across north central Nebraska. Cooler
temperatures behind the system may allow for some wintry
precipitation across portions of the Sandhills Monday night into
Tuesday morning, though confidence in any impacts remains low.
- Drier and warmer conditions are expected to return by the middle
to latter part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
A large upper level trough is deepening across western CONUS,
promoting strong southwesterly flow aloft. Surface analysis suggests
that there are two lows developing, One in south far southwest
KS and another developing along the border of northeast CO and
southwest NE. A distinct shortwave is starting to develop over
southeast Wyoming through central Kansas. This along with some
modest instability has promoted some elevated convection over
the Panhandle and southwest NE. These storms have generated
frequent lightning pulses where confidence remains low of
precipitation reaching the ground. As such, fire starts remain a
concern late this afternoon.
The main concern will be later this evening through the overnight
hours. Midlevel moisture is being advected from the Gulf with
dewpoints hovering in the mid to upper 50s. Ensemble guidance
suggests MUCAPE will increase to around 2000 to 2500 J/kg by late
afternoon with the potential of reaching 3000 J/kg, primarily in
southern NE. As such, southwest NE (along and south of I- 80) has
increasing confidence for the potential of very large hail where
there are steep lapse rates and 0-6 km wind shear reaching 40 to 50
kts. An isolated tornado threat remains, especially if any
supercells remain through the evening hours to latch on to an
incoming low-level jet to elongate low-level hodographs. While there
is a bit of uncertainty over the exact placement, models still
suggest an intense bowing cluster developing near the warm front
along southern NE mid way through this evening. Main hazards tonight
will be the possibility of large hail (2"+ diameter), damaging
winds (80+ mph gusts), and an isolated tornado threat.
Convection potential should wane early Sunday morning but could
again return to another active severe weather day later in the
afternoon. This is with the added caveat of convection being largely
dependent on how far a southeast moving synoptic cold front moves
through the region. Forecast models have gone back and forth over
how far east convection develops in Nebraska. As it stands today,
the severe environment has shifted back more westward for central
and northeast Nebraska. The environment will be similar to today`s
environment with steep lapse rates, MUCAPE values hovering
around 2000+ J/kg and 0-6 km being 40-50 kts. Main hazards will
again be similar to Saturday with strong, damaging winds, large
hail, and an isolated tornado threat.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Monday, the longwave trough will settle across the central Rockies
into the Four Corners region. Ahead of this system, a shortwave
trough will move across western Nebraska during the daytime hours.
Strong 700-850mb cold air advection will spread into western and
north-central Nebraska through the afternoon, leading to the
development of a sharp cold front and strong baroclinic zone across
the area. Behind the front, highs will remain in the 40s across
north-central Nebraska, with upper 50s to lower 60s farther south.
As the surface low responds and ejects northeastward, increasing
lift along the boundary will support rain and thunderstorm
development. Strong warm air advection east of the boundary,
combined with easterly to southeasterly 850mb flow, will support
elevated instability, most likely east of Highway 83. With deep
layer shear of 50 to 60 knots, some storms could become organized
and produce large hail. However, another possible scenario is that
the cold air advection becomes strong enough to push the cold front
farther south and east more quickly, keeping the better thunderstorm
potential to the southeast of the forecast area. Currently, this
scenario appears more likely given the tendency for fronts to move
faster and farther south than model guidance has indicated so far
this spring. The SPC Day 3 outlook also supports this thinking, with
the greatest severe threat focused across eastern Nebraska into
Kansas. Behind the system, stronger synoptic lift will persist
across western Nebraska into Monday evening. While severe weather is
not expected on the cool side of the system, a steadier rain may
develop across the western portions of the area. Across the
Panhandle and near the Nebraska/South Dakota border, temperatures
may become cold enough for some snow to mix in. In addition, the
proximity of the deep surface low may support strong winds across
these areas. While uncertainty remains, some travel impacts could
become possible due to gusty winds and potential wintry
precipitation.
Tuesday into midweek, the storm system will quickly shift east of
the region. In its wake, mid-level heights will begin rising across
the western United States. Another weaker disturbance may move
through the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. This
system appears weaker than Monday`s system, and limited low-level
moisture should keep precipitation coverage fairly isolated and
primarily in the form of showers. Beyond midweek, upper level
ridging is expected to support warmer and drier conditions through
the end of the week. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will remain on the
cooler side, generally ranging from the mid 50s north to the lower
to mid 60s south. A warming trend is then expected late week, with
highs climbing back into the mid 60s to mid 70s before temperatures
potentially return to the 80s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026
Thunderstorms will be the main concern this evening, with
impacts at KLBF by early evening.
Thunderstorms arrive early this evening across southwest NE,
likely impacting the KLBF terminal between 01Z-04Z. All hazards
of severe weather possible including heavy rain, strong wind
gusts and low CIGS, potentially reaching LIFR for brief
periods. The heavier storms should remain south of VTN but will
include a mention of lighter impacts 02Z-05Z. In the wake of
storms, stratus will develop, with an IFR CIG at KVTN by 10Z,
and KLBF by 12Z. CIGs should improve to MVFR after 15Z,
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Roberg
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion