057
FXUS63 KLBF 210856
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. A
few storms could be severe with large hail and a brief tornado or
two being the primary concerns, before transitioning to a damaging
wind threat.
- Low to moderate confidence in strong to severe storms across
southwest and eastern Panhandle.
- High confidence in continued near-daily thunderstorm chances,
although the severe potential is uncertain.
- Moderate confidence in mild temperatures through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
Early Sunday morning, some models indicate the possibility of there
being some visibility concerns across southwest and western
Nebraska but confidence remains low on whether it would be
widespread. Another weak upper level trough is forecasted to develop
over western Nebraska during mid Sunday afternoon. A 40 - 50 kt mid-
level jet should promote weak cyclogenesis along the trough. 60
degree dewpoints will combine with steep low/mid-level lapse
rates to at least yield strong to severe thunderstorms across
western and into north central Nebraska. Storms look to start
out discrete, supercellular in nature generally north of I-80
and across to west of HWY-83. The storm mode should potentially
progress into clusters where the main threat will be damaging
winds later in the evening. 40 - 50 kts bulk shear combined with
ample instability should make the environment conducive for
storms that are capable of producing large to very large hail.
Additionally, tornado or two also remains a possibility during
initial supercell development. A similar tune will also return
where localized flooding could be a concern with recent heavy
rains from the previous days.
On Monday, there is some model guidance that suggests a weak signal
for a short-wave trough over the Nebraska Panhandle. There remains a
bit of uncertainty on whether any severe storms will progress to far
into our CWA beyond the eastern Panhandle where MUCAPE ranges from
1000 - 1500 J/kg. Large hail (1.0+") and damaging wind gusts (60+
mph) will be the primary concern if storm went severe. Further
refining of the forecast will be needed to determine timing and
placement for anything that could become severe.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026
A series of disturbances will continue to impact the region through
much of next week. These systems will bring near-daily thunderstorm
chances through at least Friday as upper level troughs continue to
slide across Nebraska. At this time, not expecting severe
thunderstorms, but some small hail and briefly stronger winds will
be possible with these storms. In addition, continued heavy rainfall
may lead to localized flooding concerns across north central
Nebraska. While QPF amounts remain fairly light, some of the
stronger storms could drop another inch or more to portions of our
area. This additional rain in combination with what was already
received this weekend could lead to prolonged flooding concerns. The
majority of the flooding will be across area roadways, low lying
areas, and small streams and should quickly recede after rainfall
ends. Otherwise, rain and ample cloud cover will keep temperatures
fairly mild through Friday with highs in the 70s and overnight lows
in the 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate back to near or slightly
above normal (mid 80s) by next weekend as upper level ridging begins
to build across the central US and warm air advection pushes in some
warmer air.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026
KLBF- Dense low stratus will remain overhead through tonight and
much of tomorrow. Currently, cigs are sitting around 1000-1500
ft. Between 06-09z, we will see a line of storms pass through
the area. This will bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning. Reductions in vis/cigs can be expected as this
passes, with variable wind gusts upwards to 30 KTs or more in
the stronger storms. Cigs may drop as low as 500 ft, with vis
between 3-5 SM. After 09z, we will see rain/storm chances
decrease until after 18z Sunday. Although, the dense low
stratus will remain through much of Sunday, with cigs hovering
around 500-1000 ft until 18z, lifting and improving after 18z.
After the line of storms moves through, winds will continue to
gradually decrease, becoming light and variable by 12z. Winds
will become more southerly oriented around 18z Sunday, shifting
northerly by 00z Monday as a boundary passes through. Winds
will remain about 10-15 KTs through Sunday afternoon.
KVTN- Dense low stratus deck will remain overhead through tonight
and much of Sunday. Currently we are seeing cigs around 1000 ft
or less, which will continue to slowly decrease to around 500
ft. After 06z, there will be chances for scattered
showers/storms. Thus, opted to include a PROB30 group until 09z.
We will continue to see cigs around 500 ft through much of
Sunday morning, with conditions gradually improving after 18z.
Another round of isolated-scattered showers/storms will move
through after 15z Sunday, which may result in brief cigs
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion