152
FXUS63 KLBF 161111
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
611 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical or near-critical fire weather conditions appear likely
today and Wednesday across the area.
- Temperatures will cool back to the upper 70s lower 80s Thursday
behind an exiting cold front.
- The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase this
weekend with warmer temperatures expected. This threat for
thunderstorms will carry over into Monday with a possible
cooldown.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Strong upper level ridging across the western US will keep high
pressure and a mostly dry forecast over the region through Tuesday
night. This ridging will allow for warm air advection to push 850mb
temperatures in the 18 to 24 C range into Nebraska. This will allow
for surface highs to easily rise into the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon. Some locations across southwest Nebraska may even see
highs into the low 90s. This WAA will also bring milder lows into
the region with temperatures only dropping into the 60s tonight.
High pressure begins to slide off to the east as a frontal boundary
pushes in from the north on Wednesday. The majority of the
precipitation associated with this front will remain to the north
across South Dakota, but northern Nebraska may get grazed by some
light showers early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the main threat
this front will bring will be some very strong winds. Northwest
gusts up to 45 to 50 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon along
and behind the frontal passage. At this time, no high wind headlines
have been issued, but if confidence in higher winds increases, they
may be necessary. These strong winds will continue through early
Wednesday evening before diminishing after sunset.
This front will also usher in some colder temperatures to north
central Nebraska. Highs on Wednesday will largely depend on the
frontal passage with highs only in the upper 70s north of US-20 and
into the upper 80s to low 90s south of I-80. If this front is
quicker pushing through, as some models are hinting at in recent
runs, these southern highs will be too warm. Overnight lows will
return to slightly below normals as the front will have fully pushed
through the region by nighttime. Lows will range from the upper 40s
in the Pine Ridge to the mid 50s into central Nebraska.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Thursday will start off with light northerly winds as high
pressure builds into western Nebraska. Highs Thursday will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s with no threat for precipitation.
Fire weather concerns will be fairly minimal as well given the
lighter winds and cooler temperatures. Beginning Friday night,
winds will shift around to the south and H5 hts. will increase
as persistent low pressure over central Canada, is forced east
by low amplitude ridging over the western CONUS. Increasing
southerly winds will begin to push low level moisture northward
Friday from Kansas in addition to decent low level warm air
advection. Highs Friday will range from the middle 80s in the
northeast to lower 90s in the southwest. Precipitation chances
will begin to increase Friday night, particularly over the
eastern half of the forecast area. The latest GFS soln does
develop some elevated convection Friday night in central and
eastern Nebraska. This is forced by mid level warm air advection
and the development of a low level jet Friday night from
central into eastern Nebraska. Low level moisture will continue
to be advected north on Saturday. At the same time, low
amplitude west-southwesterly flow in the mid levels will develop
across the southwestern CONUS. This will lead to the
development of surface low pressure over northeastern Colorado
Saturday afternoon. East of the low, a defined dry line is noted
Saturday afternoon and may serve as the initiation point for
thunderstorms. ATTM, it is a little too early to ascertain
severe storm potential, however the ensembles indicate a good
potential for measurable precipitation across the area Saturday
afternoon/night with an 80-90% chance for precipitation
exceeding 0.01 inches. When this threshold is raised to 0.10`
the percentages fall off to 50 to 80% from west to east across
the forecast area. The threat for precipitation will linger into
Sunday and Monday across the forecast area as a low amplitude
pattern continues across the western CONUS. After highs in the
mid 80s to lower 90s Saturday, highs will cool back to the upper
70s to mid 80s Sunday, and upper 70s to lower 80s for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
For the KLBF terminal: Expect scattered high clouds around 25000
FT AGL over the next 24 hours. Winds will be from the west today
with gusts up to 25 MPH possible this afternoon. Winds will
diminish to around 10 KTS this evening. For the KVTN terminal:
Expect broken sky coverage today and tonight with ceilings
generally in the 20000 to 25000 FT AGL range. Some mid level
clouds are possible today with scattered coverage around 10000
FT AGL. Winds will be from the west today and may gust up to 25
KTS this afternoon before diminishing to under 10 KTS this
evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
Fire weather concerns will be greatest today and
again on Wednesday. This afternoon, gusty west winds up to 30 MPH
and minimum RH around 15 percent, will lead to critical fire weather
conditions in zone 204. The fire weather watch was upgraded to a red
flag warning from noon through 9 PM MDT today.
A cold front will pass through western and north central Nebraska
overnight tonight into early Wednesday morning. An abrupt shift in
wind direction to the north will occur with passage of this feature.
RH recovery overnight will be meager with 30 to 40 percent in SW
Nebraska and 40 to 60 percent elsewhere. By afternoon, there is a
high potential for wind gusts approaching reaching 40 MPH across
most of western and north central Nebraska. ATTM, based on the
latest NBM ensemble data, there is a 80 to near 100 percent chance
of wind gusts reaching greater than 40 MPH Wednesday afternoon north
of Interstate 80. When this is raised to 45 MPH, there is a 60-90%
chance of exceedance north of highway 92. As for RFW critical
criteria winds of 25 MPH, the entire forecast area sees a near 100
percent chance of exceedance.
Recent calls to fuel partners across the forecast area are
concerning and indicate partially curred fuels. Further input from
fire partners indicates if wind potential is strong enough, fire may
run, even with the intermittent green-up across the forecast area.
Forecast minimum RH Wednesday afternoon reaches 15 to 25 percent
across the area. However with the degree of expected winds tomorrow
afternoon (possibly as high as 50 MPH in the Sandhills) feel a fire
weather watch is warranted for Wednesday across the forecast area.
Decided to issue a fire weather watch for Wednesday afternoon through
mid evening across all of western and north central Nebraska.
Beyond Wednesday, Thursday will feature cooler temperatures, higher
relative humidities and lighter winds which will limit overall fire
weather concerns. Winds will shift around to the south Friday,
forcing low level moisture into the area. Even with the gusty
southerly winds Friday afternoon, widespread minimum RH ranging from
22 to 35 percent should alleviate any critical fire weather
concerns. Additional moisture and an increased threat for
precipitation, will limit fire weather concerns for Saturday through
Monday across the area.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
NEZ204.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion