651
FXUS63 KLBF 041923
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
123 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures are expected today and Thursday, with
highs mainly in the 40s and 50s. A few light showers are
remain possible across north-central Nebraska through the
evening.
- Cold temperatures are expected Thursday night into Friday
morning, with lows falling into the lower to middle 20s across
much of the area.
- A warming trend begins this weekend and continues into next
week, with highs reaching the 60s and possibly upper 60s.
Mainly dry conditions are expected through the period.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
Currently, two closed upper-level lows are located across the CONUS,
with one across the Midwest and another across the Desert Southwest.
The closed low across the Midwest is fairly vertically stacked,
suggesting additional weakening as the system gradually becomes
absorbed into the mean flow. However, cold air advection (CAA)
remains prominent across much of the region, with northwesterly flow
aloft continuing behind the system. An embedded shortwave west of
the main upper-level low, associated with increasing cyclonic
vorticity advection, is providing sufficient lift for scattered
showers across the northeastern portions of the forecast area,
particularly Boyd and Holt counties, with some activity potentially
extending as far west as Valentine. These showers should remain
light given the limited moisture available, as indicated by BUFKIT
forecast soundings. Northwest winds will remain gusty across the
area today, with gusts up to 30 mph possible, especially across
northern and northeastern Nebraska where the surface pressure
gradient remains strongest closer to the low pressure system over
southwestern Minnesota. High temperatures will vary considerably
across the area, with middle 40s expected across north-central
Nebraska where lingering cloud cover and shower activity should
limit daytime warming. These temperatures would be around 5 to 7
degrees below normal for early November. Farther south and west,
highs should reach the lower to middle 50s where greater clearing is
expected. Overnight lows should generally fall into the lower to
middle 30s, with increasing cloud cover associated with the southern-
stream system across the Desert Southwest potentially limiting
radiational cooling.
Thursday, the upper-level low across the Midwest will continue to
weaken and gradually become absorbed into the mean flow. Meanwhile,
the southern-stream trough across the Desert Southwest will progress
eastward south of the forecast area, keeping the better
precipitation chances across Kansas where the stronger forcing for
ascent will reside. Northerly winds will continue through the day,
though 850-mb temperatures in the 6 to 10C range, combined with
clearing skies, should allow highs to reach the middle to upper 50s
across western and southwestern Nebraska. Farther northeast,
persistent cloud cover should limit daytime warming, with highs
generally in the upper 40s. Thursday night into Friday morning,
temperatures are expected to fall considerably as continued cold air
advection, clearing skies, and weakening winds support more
efficient radiational cooling. Overnight lows should fall into the
lower to middle 20s across much of the area.
Friday, mid to upper-level ridging will begin building across the
region, resulting in increasing subsidence and generally dry
conditions. However, increasing moisture aloft associated with the
southern-stream system may support scattered cloud cover,
particularly during the afternoon hours. Highs Friday should remain
in the lower to middle 50s across the area, which is near normal for
early November.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
Saturday through Sunday, an amplified upper-level ridge will become
established across the northern United States, with southern-stream
disturbances continuing to track across the southern CONUS beneath
the ridge. This split-flow pattern will favor generally dry
conditions across western and north-central Nebraska, as the
stronger forcing for ascent remains displaced north and south of the
region. Increasing subsidence beneath the ridge, along with warmer
temperatures within the lower to middle levels, should support a
warming trend through the weekend. With 850-mb temperatures
increasing into the 10 to 13C range, afternoon highs should reach
the lower to middle 60s both Saturday and Sunday, which is above
normal for early November.
Early into the middle of next week, upper-level ridging is expected
to remain persistent across the northern tier of the United States,
maintaining generally dry and warmer-than-normal conditions across
the region. With anomalously warm temperatures remaining in the
lower to middle levels, highs should continue to reach the lower to
middle 60s, with upper 60s possible in some locations depending on
cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing. These temperatures would be
well above normal for this time of year.
The broader upper-level pattern will continue to favor split flow
across North America, with disturbances generally tracking north and
south of the ridge. This should limit precipitation chances across
the forecast area through much of the period. Additionally, the
persistent troughing near the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska may
continue to favor the transport of relatively mild Pacific air into
portions of the CONUS. While brief periods of cooler temperatures
remain possible, the current pattern does not favor a significant
southward intrusion of colder air into the central Plains through
the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
VFR conditions are expected across most of western and north-central
Nebraska over the next 24 hours. The exception will be across
portions of north-central Nebraska, where some lower stratus and
light rain showers remain possible through the afternoon and evening
hours. Northwest winds will increase through the afternoon,
especially across the Sandhills into north-central Nebraska, with
sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots possible.
Gusty northwest winds will persist overnight into Thursday morning,
though gusts should gradually diminish to around 20 knots. Mid to
upper-level cloud cover will increase across the area overnight,
though VFR conditions are expected to prevail despite the increasing
cloud cover.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Labenz
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Labenz
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion