309
FXUS63 KLBF 031152
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
552 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog will persist through late this morning across much of
southwest and central Nebraska.

- Light rain is expected primarily across portions of western
Nebraska today. HOwever, any accumulations are expected to remain
light (0.10" or less)

- Moderate confidence in track of a late week system which has the
potential to bring rain/snow to much of the region.

- Moderate confidence in thunderstorm potential on Thursday evening,
some could be strong to briefly severe.

- Moderate confidence in a dry weekend with a return to above normal
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Currently, fog is overspreading much of southwest and central
Nebraska, within an area of moist southeasterly flow. Visibilities
have dropped below 1 mile for portions of south central and central
Nebraska already, and these very low visibilities are expected to
expand in coverage over the next few hours. With this thinking in
mind, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through early this afternoon
across much of southwest and central Nebraska. Drizzle will also be
possible through late morning, with an expectation that temperatures
will remain just above freezing and negate the threat for any
freezing drizzle.

Further west, showers and a few thunderstorms persist across
portions of southeastern Wyoming, within a corridor of weak elevated
instability (MUCAPE ~100-250J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates.
Surface low pressure continues to deepen across eastern Colorado,
and is expected to eject southeast today, reaching the Red River by
this afternoon. Aloft, the mid-level low will also move south
through the day today, roughly along the lee of the Rockies. THis
will lead to increasing FGEN and associated isentropic ascent,
primarily across western Nebraska and the Front Range. Forcing looks
to maximize locally for areas near and west of HWY 61, in closest
proximity to the system passing off to the west. Confidence in rain
wanes with eastward extent across the area, due to lesser ascent
into central and north central Nebraska. Even with better forcing
across western Nebraska, any rainfall amounts look to remain light
today. HREF probabilities of any precipitation (>0.01") only climb
to ~30-40% for areas east of HWY 61 this afternoon. Increasing that
to the probability for >0.1" sees probabilities fall to 

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion