953
FXUS63 KLBF 221113
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
613 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across
western Nebraska Monday evening. A few storms could be strong to
severe with large hail and damaging winds, primarily for areas along
and west of Highway 61.

- Additional thunderstorms are expected across western and north
central Nebraska on Tuesday. A few storms could be strong to severe,
with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats.

- High confidence in continued near-daily thunderstorm chances,
although the severe potential is uncertain.

- Moderate confidence in mild temperatures through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across
portions of northern Nebraska, within a weak warm advection regime.
This activity is expected to wane prior to sunrise, as the warm
advection weakens aloft. Surface high pressure is expected to then
move into eastern Nebraska early this morning, and will allow for
weak winds and efficient radiational cooling, with lows falling as
low as the upper 40s in northwest Nebraska and the low 50s
elsewhere. This will lead to a threat for patchy fog and low stratus
development across the area and this will persist through late this
morning.

By this afternoon, southerly flow returns to the area amid broad
surface cyclogenesis along the lee of the Rockies. This will bring
the moist airmass back westwards, and into the higher terrain to the
west by late afternoon. This should help to initiate isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms along the high terrain, which are
then expected to traverse east towards western Nebraska by late
evening. With lapse rates remaining steep aloft, increasing
instability will overlap with strong deep layer shear and suggests
that supercells will be favored at least initially across eastern
Wyoming and into far western Nebraska. These storms are expected to
approach the HWY 61 corridor by 5-7pm MDT, and could pose a threat
for large hail and damaging winds. The severe threat is expected to
remain more isolated further east, as instability decreases and CIN
begins to increase by the time the storms push east of HWY 61 late
tomorrow evening.

A brief lull in thunderstorms is possible after sunset tonight,
before a low level jet begins to strengthen across western Nebraska
and much of the Sandhills after Midnight. High-res guidance
continues to suggest scattered to widespread thunderstorm
development in conjunction with this, and this should persist late
Monday night and into at least late Tuesday morning. The threat for
severe weather with this early morning activity is uncertain, though
ample MUCAPE (~1500-2000 J/kg) will be in place across much of the
area. Strong winds aloft could support updraft organization, and a
few elevated storms capable of large hail appear possible early
Tuesday morning. With PWAT values increasing towards the 90th
percentile of climo, any upscale growth and training in the
overnight convection could lead to a threat for locally heavy
rainfall as well.

The early day thunderstorms on Tuesday casts significant uncertainty
on any severe weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening, though
trends will continue to be monitored. Should airmass recovery occur
Tuesday afternoon, long and straight hodographs suggest some threat
for supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging winds yet
again across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A series of disturbances will continue to impact the region through
much of next week. These systems will bring near-daily thunderstorm
chances through at least Friday as upper level troughs continue to
slide across Nebraska. At this time, not expecting severe
thunderstorms, but some hail and briefly stronger winds will be
possible with these storms. Otherwise, rain and ample cloud cover
will keep temperatures fairly mild through Friday with highs in the
70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

Upper level ridging returns to the central US by the weekend
bringing a return to drier conditions. In addition, the ridging will
also allow temperatures to begin to moderate back to near or
slightly above normal (mid 80s). Warm air advection with 850mb
temperatures in the 20 to 28 C range will result in surface highs to
return to the 80s on both Saturday and Sunday, potentially a few
locations reaching into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Patchy fog will continue to impact portions of north central
Nebraska through mid-morning. Fog will mainly be confined to the
river valleys and low lying area and should diminish over the next
few hours. Ceilings remain below 3500 feet through early afternoon
before rising to near 5000 feet by the late afternoon/early evening.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again by the evening, but
will remain to the west of both terminals. Additional shower
activity is also possible after 06Z across north central Nebraska,
but confidence is low in development and locations and therefore has
been left out of the prevailing forecast at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion