360
FXUS63 KLBF 062342
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
642 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will continue the next couple of days
  with the most organized activity likely being Wednesday
  evening.

- Heat will build into the area this weekend into the first of
  next week. Highs over 100 degrees will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A weak frontal boundary and shortwave is crossing the Northern
Plains this afternoon. The weak cold front is currently situated
from near Phillip, SD to Scottsbluff. An area of mid-level
cloudiness is noted along and ahead of the front from central
south Dakota to northwest Nebraska. Near-term model guidance
continues to suggest isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing late this afternoon near the frontal boundary across
northwest Nebraska. These could pose a risk for a couple of near
or perhaps severe gusts before dissipating this evening.

Tuesday looks similar to today. Moist southeast low-level flow
should lead to late afternoon convection across the Panhandle.
This will attempt to move eastward into the Sandhills region
Wednesday evening. Some question as to how far east it will make
it as overall shear will be quite weak. Regardless, locally
strong winds and a few instances of hail will be possible with
strongest cores.

Wednesday could see a bit more activity. A warm front will
become situated across Kansas with a moist easterly low-level
flow across our area. This will help aid in the overall shear.
It appears that convection will again form across the Panhandle
Thursday afternoon, and with the stronger shear and pockets of
strong instability, appears to be potential of upscale growth
and a forward propagating MCS across the area Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Heat will become a concern as we head into the weekend. Still
some chance for rainfall Thursday, but by Friday upper level
ridging will begin to build northward, with warming temperatures
aloft increasing and winds decreasing. By the weekend,
ensembles and operational models agree that a large upper level
ridge will become centered across the central CONUS. This
intensifies as we head into early next week. Model guidance
suggests highs over 100 degrees will likely occur in places.
This could be a rather long event 3-4+ days and have already
started to highlight the potential heat coming.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across northern
Nebraska for the next few hours, with VFR conditions expected to
persist. Any thunderstorm may create gusty and erratic winds, but
are expected to remain generally higher based, leaving low end VFR
ceilings at worst. Overnight, winds become light and variable,
taking on a southerly direction by morning. Mid to late morning,
expecting stronger southerly gusts across the region, with strongest
gusts across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion