777
FXUS63 KLBF 311122
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Following a largely dry daytime, strong to severe
  thunderstorms appear possible Monday evening and late into the
  overnight with large hail and damaging winds the main
  concerns.

- A complicated set-up on Tuesday will lead to cooler
  temperatures and steady rain/thunderstorms in the afternoon
  with an outside chance of strong to severe thunderstorm
  development for portions of central Nebraska in the late
  afternoon/evening.

- Wednesday onward, a warmer, drier pattern settles over the
  area. Temperatures will remain warmer than average, with
  little to no precipitation expected into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Early this morning, an outflow boundary continued to track south and
east through much of west central Nebraska. This boundary was
associated with convection over western South Dakota that dissipated
around I-90 with continued momentum allowing it to track through the
local area. Subtle increases in winds have been observed behind this
boundary but little else in the way of changes to the sensible
weather are expected for most location. Temperatures have largely
fallen into the lower 70s and further cooling with values reaching
the 60s and even some middle to upper 50s is expected.

Monday/Monday Night...as this boundary continues to shuffle
southeast, it should interact with greater moisture and thus greater
instability across central and northeast Nebraska. This may help
sustain some weak convection lifting north and east out of northwest
Kansas. Coverage in the local area should be fairly limited and as
such have PoPs capped at 20% southeast of a Hayes Center to Broken
Bow line. This activity will likely shuffle off to the east by
daybreak leaving the area dry. Beneath broad upper troughing stalled
over southern Canada, enhanced mid-level flow will persist for the
northern and central Plains. The boundary from early morning Monday
should stall south across western Kansas up through southeast
Nebraska. This will focus most the daytime rain and thunderstorm
chances to the south. Forecast highs for Monday saw a slight boost
with widespread middle 80s to lower 90s. As upper ridging from the
south begins to progress east, height falls from an approaching mid-
level disturbance will overspread the area late tonight. Modest low
pressure will form and lift the stalled frontal boundary north as a
warm front. Though warm air advection may lead to some showers and
general thunderstorms in the evening, the main wave itself will be a
late arrival and precipitation potential will largely favor late
evening into early morning Tuesday. Instability will remain fairly
strong well into the overnight thus some strong to severe concerns
will linger. Forecast soundings depict elevated instability
supportive of some severe hail potential so will continue to message
overnight concerns. With ample mid-level moisture, believe some
locally heavy rain will be possible with both NAM12 and ECMWF
solutions showing spotty amounts nearing 0.50". This aligns with NBM
probabilities where showing 30-40% probabilities of exceeding 0.25".
Even with the rain and cloud cover, temperatures should still fall
into the 60s for most locations to begin the day Tuesday.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...upper level wave will continue to lift north
and east across western Nebraska through the morning. At the
surface, a weak low pressure center will form and travel up the
baroclinic zone through southwest and north central Nebraska. A
resulting h85 low will form and lead to increasing backside
convergence and prolonged precipitation into the afternoon hours.
The lingering precipitation will hold temperatures back quite a bit
and as such afternoon highs were lowered. Though some MET guidance
was blended into the forecast, the going forecast stops well short
of the lower 70s it advertises from the central Panhandle up through
the northern Sandhills. HREF guidance is fairly pessimistic that our
northwestern zones surpass 80F for the afternoon highs. The going
forecast calls for upper 70s northwest to middle 80s central to low
90s southeast in central Nebraska. As high pressure builds in later
in the day, increasing low-level lift along the frontal boundary
should allow for additional thunderstorm development from southwest
through east central Nebraska. How far north this potential extends
is somewhat uncertain but given proximity to the high pressure
system and the cooler temperatures, do anticipate this to favor
areas south and east of the local CWA. This outcome is far from
written in stone however so folks are advised to continue monitoring
later forecasts for up to date thinking. As it stands now, dry
conditions largely resume by the evening and will continue through
the overnight hours with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

On Wednesday, upper level ridging is expected to amplify across the
region, which will help usher in a warmer, drier pattern. Guidance
remains in strong agreement on this ridging building by mid week
lasting into next week. A look at GEFS spaghetti plots builds fairly
high confidence in this pattern, as even though the solutions begin
to diverge by Friday, all of the solutions bring upper level ridging
somewhere across the Northern Plains. Cluster analysis also remains
in strong agreement, highlighting upper level ridging remaining
through next week. This will help keep warmer than average
temperatures across the region into next week. For reference, our
typical highs are around 85 degrees, becoming 84 by the weekend.
Current forecast highs are mostly in the upper 80s to mid 90s,
though some portions of southwest Nebraska may see highs push into
the upper 90s before the end of the week. These highs are consistent
with the 75th to 90th percentile high temperatures compared to our
local climatology.

The stronger upper level ridging will also help keep precipitation
chances fairly limited Wednesday onward. LAtest NBM guidance does
still keep some slight chance PoPs, generally less than 20 percent,
each night this weekend. However, based on ensemble guidance, any
precipitation chances will be for fairly light precipitation. Latest
ensemble guidance continues to show a less than 20 percent chance of
precipitation exceeding one tenth of an inch late week into the
weekend. Better chances, generally 30 to 40 percent, are seen
for one hundredth of an inch or greater. Deterministic guidance
does suggest potential for some weaker shortwaves to track
through the main upper level flow, which could support some very
light precipitation, and tend to think this is what the NBM is
keying on for potential precipitation. Still, if anything were
to fall, based on current guidance, would expect it to be very
light.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Throughout the day, mid to high
cloud cover is expected to increase, with ceilings remaining VFR.
Winds are expected to remain mostly light and variable, with a slow,
subtle shift from more northerly to more southerly by the evening.
Late this evening into the overnight hours, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop and track across the region.
These storms bring the risk for gusty and erratic winds, as well as
potential for brief, localized impacts to ceilings and visibility.
At this time, guidance keeps ceilings VFR, so may make adjustments
as confidence builds in ceilings with expected thunderstorms.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion