216
FXUS63 KLBF 242005
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
305 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditions will be wet across the forecast area with precipitation
  likely tonight, and again Sunday night into Monday.

- Mainly drier conditions are expected Monday night through
  Thursday night with only minor chances for precipitation in
  eastern areas Tuesday night.

- The threat for precipitation will increase Friday into next
  weekend, though forecast confidence is low.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A highly amplified and active H5 pattern continues this morning
across the CONUS and Canada. Ridging was present from the
Arklatex, north-northeast to northeastern Ontario. East of this
feature, closed low pressure was noted south of Newfoundland
Canada with a trough trailing to the southwest into Florida and
western Cuba. West of the trough this morning, a total of three
closed lows were noted. The first was off the central coast of
British Columbia. The second was along the Saskatchewan and
Alberta border. The third system was located along the
California and Arizona border. Satellite imagery this morning
has a broad plume of Pacific moisture lifting across central
Mexico into western Texas, eastern New Mexico and north into the
high plains of Colorado, western Kansas and Nebraska. At the
surface this afternoon...a strong cold front extended from far
south central Nebraska into east central Nebraska near Omaha.
Northerly winds and cool temperatures were noted across the
forecast area this afternoon. A broad area of rainfall extended
from southwestern Nebraska, northeast into the eastern Sandhills
and portions of north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 PM
CDT ranged from 45 degrees at Gordon, to 49 degrees at O`Neill.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Two rounds of precipitation are poised to impact western and
north central Nebraska over the next 48 hours. Upper level low
pressure will lift to the north- northeast tonight, ending up
over southern Utah by 12z Sunday. A lead shortwave, currently
over far southeastern Colorado, will lift to the north-northeast
late this afternoon, approaching NW Kansas early this evening.
Isentropic lift will increase this evening from southwestern and
western Nebraska into northern Nebraska overnight. Though
measureable precipitation appears likely for the entire forecast
area tonight, the best chances for a quarter inch or more QPF
lies east of a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth. Forecast
soundings across the west and northwest indicate a relatively
dry layer between the boundary layer and around 10000 FT AGL.
This will take time to saturate this evening before rain can
materialize in the west. With this in mind, focused the highest
pops generally east of the panhandle counties tonight. As for
lows, the NBM came in with chilly sub freezing lows across the
west and northwest tonight along with lows well below the MAV
and below the MET guidance. After coordinating with mainly our
neighboring offices to the west and north, lows tonight were
trended upward and brought more in line with the MAV and MET
guidance. Precipitation will lift north into South Dakota Sunday
morning with a brief reprieve in precipitation late Sunday
morning into the early afternoon hours. Similar to today, a lead
shortwave will lift north northeast across eastern Colorado
Sunday afternoon. As this feature approaches late Sunday,
isentropic lift on the 305K surface increases from SW Nebraska
into the Sandhills and north central Nebraska Sunday evening.
This lead disturbance will be followed by the main upper level
low Sunday night into Monday afternoon which traverses Wyoming
into northwestern Nebraska. Decent mid level isentropic lift in
association with the main system will be present across most of
the forecast area with the best threat for wetting rain over the
panhandle and the remainder of the CWA. The NBM initiated with
categorical (80%+) pops for Sunday night into Monday morning and
this is on track based on the deterministic solns this morning.
With the high likelihood of precipitation early Monday morning
over the northwestern forecast area and forecast lows in the
lower 30s, will continue to monitor the potential for snow,
especially in the Pine Ridge of northern Sheridan County. As was
the case yesterday, forecast soundings in this area continue to
show an all rain temperature profile.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Precipitation chances will end in the east Monday evening as
the upper level disturbance tracks into the eastern Dakotas.
After dry conditions for the next 18 to 24 hours, a second upper
level trough, will cross the northern Rockies Tuesday, entering
the western Dakotas Tuesday evening. With westerly winds
expected across the western half of the forecast area Tuesday,
moisture will be limited with the main precipitation chances
over eastern portions of the forecast area. Beyond Tuesday
night, dry conditions are expected through Friday. Late in the
week, the deterministic GFS and EC solns develop a closed low
over the Pacific NW. As this feature tracks east, precipitation
chances will increase next weekend. ATTM the best chances appear
to be over the eastern half of Nebraska, however, given the
track differences of the mid level low late next week into the
weekend, forecast confidence in this becoming reality is low
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect mainly MVFR ceilings through this
evening, ranging from 1000 to 2500 FT AGL. IFR ceilings below
1000 FT AGL will develop overnight and persist through 18z
Sunday. Light rain will develop late this evening and will
continue into the morning hours on Sunday. Visibilities will
range from 4 to 6 miles with the showers. For the KVTN terminal:
Expect broken ceilings of 10000 to 20000 FT AGL to continue into
the evening hours. Overnight, ceilings will fall becoming MVFR
around 12z Sunday morning. Light rain is expected to develop
overnight and will continue through Sunday morning. Visibilities
down to 5SM and Ceilings down to 1500 FT AGL are expected after
12z Sunday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion