573
FXUS63 KLBF 232000
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
300 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall chances begin to increase Saturday, peaking Sunday
  afternoon into Monday. Wetting rains are expected east of the
  panhandle.

- The threat for showers will continue into Monday night, with
  lighter amounts of precipitation expected.

- Mainly drier conditions are expected beyond Monday night with only
  minor chances for precipitation in eastern areas.

- Temperatures will be cool this weekend into Monday with highs
  in the upper 40s to 50s. Temperatures warm back to more
  seasonal levels Tuesday through Friday with highs in the upper
  50s to middle 60s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A highly amplified H5 pattern was noted across the CONUS
this morning. Ridging extended from eastern Texas north-northeast
into southwestern Ontario and southeastern Manitoba. East of this
ridge, low pressure was located over the Canadian Maritimes. Low
pressure was also noted over southeastern North Carolina and a
shortwave was noted just offshore of the big bend of Florida. West
of the ridge, low pressure was noted over southwestern Idaho. A
trough extended south, then southwest of this feature to around 300
miles off the coast of San Diego CA. A strong shortwave was also
noted at the base of this trough per satellite imagery. North of the
Idaho low, a northern stream trough extended from southwestern
portions of the NW Territories of Canada, south into southern
British Columbia. At the surface this afternoon, low pressure was
located over south central Montana. A cold front extended west of
this low with an inverted trough extending north of the low. South
of the low was a trough of low pressure which extended south
southeast into eastern Wyoming and northern Colorado. A weak
secondary trough was present from northeastern Colorado into the
western Sandhills. Southerly wind were strong this afternoon and
were gusting up to 45 MPH at Valentine as of 2 PM CDT. Temperatures
ranged from 76 degrees at North Platte, to 85 degrees at Ogallala.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A deep trough of low pressure aloft will slowly traverse the SW
CONUS and southern Rockies, emerging onto the northern high
plains over the next 84 hours. This slow moving system, preceded
by a northern stream trough and slow moving cold front will
bring a good chance for wetting rainfall to western and north
central Nebraska through this time period.

This evening and tonight...A prefrontal trough is expected to reside
across northwestern portions of the forecast area this evening. Weak
convergence INVOF this boundary, coupled with some weak mid level
warm air advection, may initiate some isolated showers/embedded
thunderstorms INVOF the boundary tonight. Initial activity along the
surface trough is not expected to last much after mid evening as we
loose surface heating. However, a secondary chance for isolated
precipitation exists further east over northern areas overnight.
Aided by a low level jet oriented from south central into
northeastern Nebraska, wouldn`t be surprised if some isolated
showers develop along the pre-frontal trough as it migrates east
overnight. This activity would be focused primarily over the eastern
Sandhills and northeastern portions of the forecast area. Overnight,
a decent northern stream low will cross Alberta into Saskatchewan,
forcing a cold front into northwestern Nebraska. This feature should
make it into the western third of the forecast area by daybreak
Saturday. In advance of the front, another mild night is expected
generally east of a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth, with lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Further west behind the front, strong
cold air advection will lead to lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

Saturday thorugh Sunday...The cold front will push through the
forecast area by mid afternoon Saturday, stalling just off to the
east and southeast of the forecast area. During the day Saturday,
mid level winds will remain southerly above the H750 level. This
will lead to increasing moisture advection in the mid and upper
levels, leading to increasing cloud cover during the day Saturday.
By Saturday afternoon, mid level warm air advection will increase in
advance of an approaching lead shortwave. As the boundary layer
becomes moist north of the cold front, showers are expected to
develop late afternoon. ATTM, the best chances Saturday afternoon
are generally east of a line from Ogallala to Bassett. With a fairly
dry boundary layer noted north of the front per forecast soundings,
it will take time to top down saturate the column Saturday. This
will limit QPF`s through sunset Saturday. ATTM the latest NBM
probabilistic forecast has a 40 to 60 percent chance of 6 hr
precipitation exceeding 0.10 inches-ending at 7 PM CDT Saturday-east
of a line from North Platte to O`Neill. Moving west of this line,
probabilities fall off quickly, approaching zero percent along an
Ogallala to Bassett line. The upper level trough and low will track
slowly from northwestern Arizona into the Four Corners Saturday
night into Sunday. Mid level forcing and moisture will spread north
into northwestern Nebraska and west into the panhandle Saturday
night. With isentropic lift increasing and a moist boundary layer
finally noted in western portions of the forecast area, the threat
for precipitation will increase into Sunday. By Sunday evening,
there is a near 100 percent chance of reaching measurable
precipitation across the entire forecast area (NBM ensembles
forecast for 24 hrs ending at 7 PM CDT Sunday). When this threshold
is increased to 0.50 inches the probabilities only fall off to 70
percent from southwestern Nebraska into the central Sandhills. West
and east of this area, probabilities are still at least 30 percent
of exceedance for the remainder of the forecast area. The notion of
heavy precipitation is hinted in the latest ECMF EFI and SOT
forecast which highlights the threat for heavy rain Saturday night
and Sunday from southwestern Nebraska into the central Sandhills
with an EFI of 0.7 to 0.9 and a SOT around 1. ATTM, the initialized
pop grids have a broad swath of 80 to near 100 percent pops across
the area Sunday. Given the synoptic setup, good model agreement and
moisture availability, these pops seem on track for now. Speaking of
moisture availability, the latest NAM 12 and GFS solns this morning
already have PWATS above 1.00 inches. This is well above climatology
for this time of year and eclipses the climatological max per
sounding data. With the PWAT from our 18z raob this afternoon being
1.13 inches, the NAM and GFS solns seem to have a decent handle on
the deep layer moisture situation.

Sunday night into Monday...The upper level low will lift from the
Four Corners into northeastern Wyoming, far NW Nebraska and SW South
Dakota by Monday afternoon. Broad isentropic lift will continue
Sunday night across the area with continued chances for
precipitation. The NBM forecast did initialize with some lower 30 in
the northwest Monday morning for low temperatures. ATTM, the
initialized NBM forecast has some precipitation chances across the
northwest, co-located with the near subfreezing temperatures in the
Pine Ridge Monday morning. Looking at the MET and MAV guidance for
Pine Ridge Monday morning, lows range from the mid 20s (MET) and mid
30s (MAV). The NBM initialized forecast had a low of 29 for Gordon
Monday morning which was well below the MAV guidance. With expected
cloud cover and the fact this upper level low is not phased with the
northern stream at this point, feel highs Monday may be on the low
side of the envelope. That being said, trended the NBM forecast a
degree or two higher and kept precipitation all liquid in all of the
forecast area but mentioned a mix of rain/snow in the far northern
most portion Sheridan County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The upper level low will transition northeast into the eastern
Dakotas Monday night. This will lead to drier conditions on
Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a secondary shortwave trough crosses
the central Rockies into the Dakotas. This may bring a chance
for precipitation mainly to the eastern half of the state. Based
on the forecast trajectory of the shortwave, the western half
of the state would see mainly dry conditions with this system.
Currently the latest deterministic GFS and EC solns do have some
minor differences in the track of this midweek system and the
EC would favor a more westward extent to precipitation chances.
For now, given the differences, the latest WPC forecast seems on
track. Wednesday and Thursday appear dry and seasonal ATTM with
another trough deepening across the western CONUS late next
week. This could lead to an active pattern across the central
CONUS next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Gusty southerly winds will continue through the early evening
hours at both terminals with gusts up to 35 KTS possible during
the late afternoon hours. Winds will diminish somewhat this
evening. Overnight into Saturday morning, an abrupt wind shift
to the north will occur around 10 to 12Z at the KVTN terminal
and 12 to 14Z at the KLBF terminal. After scattered high clouds
through tonight, skies will cloud up behind the front Saturday
morning with broken ceilings around 10000 FT AGL expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion