106
FXUS63 KLBF 111946
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
146 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is possible across north central Nebraska and the
Sandhills tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front tracks
into the region.
- A slight cool off to seasonal temperatures is expected
Thursday and Friday behind the cold front.
- Even cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with highs in
the 40s, as well as chances for light precipitation across
southwest and central Nebraska.
- A quick return to seasonal temperatures is expected early
next week. However, uncertainty begins to build into the
forecast heading into the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
An upper level trough tracks across the northern Plains into the
Great Lakes region today, with a second trough off the Pacific
Coast. This pattern brings upper level ridging across the
Intermountain West and western Great Plains, largely supporting fair
weather across the region through this evening. However, as the
trough to the east continues to dig south, it will help track a
surface low further south across the Great Lakes. This low has a
fairly expansive cold front tracking across the Plains, and as this
low tracks south, expect that the cold front will track south across
portions of central Nebraska overnight. Guidance continues to
suggest a slight moisture enhancement just ahead of the cold front.
While this is not expected to bring precipitation, this additional
surge of moisture combined with the light surface winds overnight
will support potential fog development. The main areas of concern
for fog development will be across portions of north central
Nebraska and the Sandhills as the front tracks in overnight.
Probabilistic guidance shows around a 50 to 70 percent chance for
visibility reductions under half a mile. However, with this
tracking along the front, some question remains in how long fog
will be able to stick around, especially as cooler, drier air
follows the cold front. At this time, confidence is not high enough
to go with a Dense Fog Advisory, but will continue to monitor,
especially this evening as the front tracks south, to see if an
overnight Advisory will be needed.
Throughout Thursday and Thursday night, the aforementioned cold
front will continue to sink further south, as a surface high pressure
system tracks south from Canada into the northern Plains. Cooler air
will continue to pool over portions of north central Nebraska, where
daytime highs may only reach into the lower 40s. Across western
Nebraska, which should remain just ahead of the front, still some
potential for highs to breach the lower 60s, with upper 50s very
likely. Overnight, did slightly lower temperatures in the forecast,
as skies remain mostly clear with light surface winds. However, with
winds mostly expected out of the south and another night with
relative humidity values near 100%, only lowered lows 1-2 degrees.
This slight adjustment brings forecast lows ranging from 22 degrees
in north central Nebraska to 32 degrees across western Nebraska. For
reference, climatological lows this time of year are typically lower
20s, so expected overnight temperatures across north central
Nebraska are quite normal for November.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
By Friday, the upper level trough across the Great Lakes is expected
to become a cut off low, as the Pacific trough attempts to track
further inland. This will keep the upper level ridging for Friday,
with fairly rinse and repeat temperatures across the region.
However, could see some gusty winds across the region Friday
afternoon, with peak gusts around 30 mph. However, minimum humidity
values are expected to remain above 50 percent (especially given the
cooler temperatures), so do not expect this to turn into elevated
fire weather conditions at this time.
By the weekend, the upper level pattern is expected to get more
complicated. The upper level low is expected to slowly track across
the Great Lakes, with the Pacific trough turning into a split flow
regime. In the split flow regime, expecting a shortwave to eject
across the southern Plains, with a second shortwave tracking into
the northern Intermountain West. The southern shortwave is expected
to help a low form across the southern Plains, bringing
precipitation chances across Kansas and Oklahoma, with guidance
suggesting southwest into central Nebraska getting clipped by the
northern edge for a few hours. Overall, chances of precipitation
remain on the lower end, with highest potential remaining south of
Interstate 80. Latest ensemble guidance generally keeps a 30 percent
chance for measurable precipitation (with a 40 to 50 percent chance
south of Interstate 80) across the region. However, when looking at
probabilities of greater than one tenth, percentages are less than
10 percent. All this to say, though there are precipitation chances
this weekend, expect very little precipitation will fall if we
do get clipped by this system, with a few hundredths at most.
Something to keep an eye on for the northernmost extent of the
precipitation shield is the potential for some light snow showers
overnight Saturday across portions of the Sandhills. However,
with very little precipitation expected, also expect very little
to no accumulations if snow were to develop. However, cooler
air continues to advect into the region, favoring highs in the
40s this weekend across most of the region, with lows remaining
in the lower 30s. These forecast highs remain just cooler than
our typical highs around 50 degrees. However, lows are expected
to remain warmer than average, as typical lows are in the lower 20s.
Early to mid next week, a bit of uncertainty begins to arise behind
the split flow pattern. Guidance remains fairly high confidence in
ridging returning briefly on Monday, favoring a slight warm up back
to seasonal highs in the 50s. This push of warm advection may also
usher in gusty southerly winds, so will continue to keep an eye on
this period. The uncertainty really picks up by Tuesday, as long
range guidance shows disagreement on the placement of another
Pacific trough. The European solution remains slightly more
progressive, bringing the trough further east than the GFS solution.
For Tuesday, this should mostly favor seasonal highs with more
potential for gusty winds across the region. By Wednesday, the
disparity in solutions brings some cause for concern, as this may
have an impact on precipitation chances as well as temperatures. If
the slower GFS solution were to occur, precipitation chances remain
sparse, with warmer temperatures possible. However, if the European
solution occurs, then we may see cooler temperatures as well as a
chance for precipitation. At this range, will continue to keep an
eye on the forecast trends, as high uncertainty remains.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail today and this evening across
western and north central Nebraska. Through the afternoon, the main
aviation concern will be gusty northwest winds, with peak gusts of
20 to 25 knots. However, gusts quickly subside by the evening, with
light and variable winds expected. As a cold front tracks in from
the northeast, a local enhancement in moisture may provide some
patchy fog across north central Nebraska into the Sandhills
overnight into the early morning hours. Will continue to closely
monitor forecast trends, as changes may be needed for fog as
confidence changes one way or the other. As the front passes,
expect a shift to easterly winds, with winds remaining light.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion