278
FXUS63 KLBF 152303
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
503 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm back into the 50s to low 60s by midweek,
  along with breezy southerly winds continuing.

- Strong west winds are expected Wednesday afternoon across
  western Nebraska, where gusts as high as 40 to 50 miles per
  hour are possible.

- A system approaches the area Friday and into the weekend,
  bringing the potential for accumulating precipitation and
  gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 117 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Currently, stratus continues to erode across western and southwest
Nebraska, amid gusty southerly winds. Temperatures range from the
low 40s across southwest Nebraska under the stratus, to the lower
50s across central and north central Nebraska.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail tonight and tomorrow, as an
upper ridge axis passes overhead through tomorrow afternoon. These
rising heights will bring a brief reprieve from middle and upper
level cloudiness, though unfortunately looks to do little for the
persistent low level stratus and fog development. This is due to the
continued moist southeasterly flow, and the first round of patchy
fog development looks to be overnight tonight into Monday morning.
Guidance suggests the greatest fog coverage should be west of HWY
83, and some suggest a threat for dense fog. Confidence in coverage
precludes any dense fog headlines for now, though these may be
needed overnight and trends will be monitored.

High temperatures tomorrow will again be driven on how long stratus
lingers, and looks to keep highs a few degrees cooler across
portions of southwest and central Nebraska as a result. Here, highs
remain in the lower 50s, with upper 50s to lower 60s further west
closer to HWY 61.

A similar scenario can be expected again Tuesday morning, with yet
another round of fog and low cloud development across much of
western and north central Nebraska. Aloft, the upper ridge axis will
pass off to the east by Tuesday morning, with increasing
southwesterly flow establishing overhead. This will bring a return
of upper level moisture ahead of an upper low beginning to eject
east out of the western US by Tuesday night. The approach of this
low will lead to increasing southerly winds, as surface low pressure
deepens across eastern Wyoming. In fact, southerly wind gusts
approaching 30 to 40 miles per hour can be expected east of HWY 83
by Tuesday afternoon. Highs climb into the 50s, though this will
again hinge on how quickly stratus erodes Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

As the aforementioned upper low begins to eject into the Dakotas on
Wednesday, an associated surface low will move quickly east across
South Dakota Wednesday afternoon. This drags a surface cold front
through the area from west to east, clearing the area by Wednesday
evening. Strengthening west winds are expected in the wake of this
front, as the downslope flow promotes ample mixing to tap into
higher momentum flow aloft. Westerly wind gusts as high as 40 to 50
miles per hour can be expected, and will also coincide with humidity
falling into the 30 to 40 percent range. This could lead to elevated
fire concerns, and trends will continue to be monitored.

Shortwave ridging then quickly moves overhead on Tuesday, before
attention then turns to a deep upper low beginning to move east into
the Rockies on Friday. Guidance still largely remains at odds with
the exact evolution of this system, though better agreement is noted
with this morning`s guidance suite. Deterministic solutions now
suggest a somewhat weaker upper low, with it remaining an open wave
as it crosses the Dakotas by Saturday morning. This further north
track also points towards lesser cold air locally, and would suggest
the area largely remains in the warm sector. In fact, some guidance
has hinted at thunderstorm development Friday evening along the cold
front, and even a low threat for a stronger storm or two given
strong shear and weak instability. Should the further north and
somewhat weaker evolution occur, this would also keep the gusty
winds somewhat weaker as well, though ensemble guidance still shows
broad low probabilities for gusts >40mph. Confidence will remain low
until details become more clear, though is slowly increasing with
respect to less wintry precipitation and towards a threat for
showers and thunderstorms Friday evening into Saturday. The system
then departs Sunday, with cooler highs expected across the area in
its wake.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect MVFR ceilings of 1000 to 2000 FT
AGL, transitioning to IFR ceilings of 700 to 900 FT AGL after
06z Monday. IFR ceilings are expected to remain in place at the
terminal before improving to MVFR levels midday Monday. Ceilings
Monday afternoon will be around 1500 FT AGL. Some patchy fog
will be possible at the KLBF terminal overnight with
visibilities as low as 2 to 4 miles. At the KVTN terminal:
Expect a few to scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL
overnight into Monday afternoon. Winds will increase Monday
afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 KTS possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion