531
FXUS63 KLBF 161752
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1252 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A very cold start this morning, with subzero wind chills
across all of western and north central Nebraska.
- Warmer temperatures return on Tuesday. Another round of warm,
dry, and windy conditions, with little to no precipitation,
may bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions Tuesday afternoon.
- Temperatures continue to trend warmer in the extended, with
highs making a run at the upper 80s to near 90F by
Friday/Saturday. This will coincide with continued fire
weather concerns.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
A cold start is expected across the region this morning, as
widespread subzero wind chills are observed across western and north
central Nebraska. Temperatures gradually warm up throughout the day,
with a temperature gradient across the region again. Highs in the
mid 20s to lower 30s are expected across north central Nebraska,
with highs in the lower to mid 40s in southwest Nebraska. Northerly
to northwesterly winds will bring a bit of a bite this afternoon, as
wind chills struggle to get out of the teens across north central
Nebraska. Further south, across the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska, lighter winds will generally prevent noticeable wind
chills this afternoon, but highs in the 30s to 40s will still be
cool compared to the recent warm wave.
Tonight, a warm front tracks across the northern Plains, tracking
into north central Nebraska and the Sandhills. The front will bring
a switch to westerly winds in its wake, as well as a slight chance
of precipitation tonight into Tuesday afternoon across far northern
Nebraska. Generally expecting precipitation chances to remain along
and north of Highway 20, but not expecting much, if anything at all,
in terms of moisture. In fact, some of the more "optimistic" high
resolution guidance brings one hundredth of an inch to some parts of
far northern Nebraska. Other guidance brings no moisture whatsoever.
With the mostly dry conditions expected, blended in a combination of
the HREF and HRRR solutions to account for the very slight chance of
precipitation, but again, expect very little out of this system.
After the frontal passage, the well advertised warming temperatures
return. By Tuesday, expecting to see anomalous 500 mb heights and
very warm 850 mb temperatures creeping across portions of western
Nebraska. Expecting that portions of southwestern and western
Nebraska push into the mid 70s by Tuesday afternoon, with upper 60s
across the Sandhills. With these warm temperatures, expect afternoon
relative humidity to drop below 25 percent across the Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska. Forecast soundings indicate potential for strong
mixing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which may bring yet
another round of strong northwesterly winds, with gusts up to 35 mph
Tuesday afternoon. Given this combination of warm, dry, windy
conditions, and little to no precipitation, expect a return of
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions again Tuesday
afternoon. Will be continuing to keep a close eye on conditions
in the next forecast cycle to determine whether fire weather
headlines may be needed or not.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Wednesday through the weekend...much warmer temperatures remain on
track for the latter half of the week. Extended ensembles are in
good agreement in planting a +2-3 sigma h5 ridge centered over the
Desert Southwest by mid-week. This feature will continues to shift
east with increasing mid-level heights extending across the central
Rockies onto much of the High Plains. Likewise, ECMWF Extreme
Forecast Index shows positive anomalies for much of western and
central Nebraska by Wednesday, continuing through Saturday with +0.8
or greater each day and non-zero Shift of Tails (SoT). The more
impressive signal appears to be Friday, where values reach +0.9-1.0
and SoT climbs to 1 for portions of south central Nebraska. The
result is daily highs in the 70s and 80s Wednesday and Thursday, or
nearly 25-30F above normal for mid to late March. As it stands now,
the warmest days of the forecast fall on Friday and Saturday,
coinciding with the signals from the EFI. EPS and GEFS probabilities
of surface temperature anomalies exceeding 30F+ climb to 60-80% for
areas along and east of Highway 83 and this matches the timing of
greatest upper-level height anomalies over western Nebraska. Strong
flow crossing the Front Range will promote lee-troughing and
persistent westerly downsloping flow. The result will be highly
anomalous temperatures, low afternoon humidities, and at least
breezy west winds. The Storm Prediction Center continues to
highlight extended fire weather probabilities for Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday, though these focus over the southern Panhandle
and only potentially clip our far western zones at this time.
Acknowledging limited confidence in precise magnitudes of winds,
expecting increased fire weather concerns for much of the late week.
Ridge breakdown looks likely to begin sometime around the start of
the weekend. This will force a frontal boundary south through the
area and perhaps lead to additional fire weather concerns but
confidence in timing remains limited at this time. Cooler
temperatures appear certain for the start of next week but
precipitation potential remains limited at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Winds will be breezy out of the northwest around 10 to 15 kts,
could see a few gust up to 20 kts across southwest Nebraska.
Winds will then become light to around 5 kts, generally out of
the south. Then winds will begin to switch to the west and
northwest by late morning, increasing to around 10 to 15 kts and
gusts up to 25 kts. Mid level clouds will move in across western
and southwest Nebraska tonight, but then expect mostly scattered
high clouds on Tuesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Gomez
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion