412
FXUS63 KLBF 182027
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold temperatures may lead to frost and freezing temperatures with
the greatest threat generally west of highway 83.
- Temperatures will be below normal through Friday with warmer
readings expected Saturday through Monday.
- Best precipitation chances are Thursday night through Friday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored to the north of
the Bahamas. Ridging extended north of this feature into the Mid-
Atlantic and western Quebec. West of the ridge, broad southwesterly
flow extended across the eastern half of the CONUS to the central
and southern plains. Low pressure was located over central Utah with
a trough extending south into eastern Arizona. A second shortwave
trough was located over southern Saskatchewan and extended south
into north central Montana. Further west, a ridge of high pressure
extended across British Columbia north into the Yukon and western
portions of the NW Territories of Canada. At the surface this
afternoon, low pressure was located over southeastern Minnesota. A
cold front extended south, then southwest of this feature into far
SE Nebraska and SW Kansas. High pressure was anchored over northern
Montana this afternoon. Winds were from the north or northeast
across the forecast area this afternoon. Drizzle and very light
rainfall was present across the area and temperatures ranged from 40
degrees at Gordon to 45 degrees at Ogallala.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Weak forcing will remain in place across northwestern and
northern portions of the forecast area this evening with a
lingering threat for precipitation. This threat will end during
the overnight hours as weak high pressure builds into Wyoming
and the Nebraska Panhandle. This will result in some limited
clearing, especially over western portions of the forecast area
overnight. With lows forecast around the freezing mark,
generally west of highway 61, decided to hoist a freeze warning
for locations generally west of highway 61 tonight. Further
east, overnight lows will bottom out in the 33 to 35 degree
range and decided to hoist a frost advisory. This was in areas
where the threat for freeze conditions is limited and cloud
cover may become more of a factor overnight. Will we see frost
in the advisory area remains uncertain and the latest NBM
ensembles only have a 25 to 50 percent chance for sub 34 degree
temps along the highway 83 corridor tonight so the advisory is a
low to medium confidence advisory. On Tuesday, high pressure
will nose into the forecast area from the west leading to
limited clearing Tuesday afternoon. Highs Tuesday will struggle
to get out of the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area which
is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. High
pressure will slide east into Iowa Tuesday night shifting winds
to the south. A weak boundary will lift north overnight into
southern Nebraska. At the same time, a weak upper level
disturbance will emerge from the central Rockies into
northeastern Colorado. Light precipitation will develop in
advance of this feature and along the frontal boundary overnight
Tuesday night. This will lead to a small threat for
precipitation mainly over western and southwestern Nebraska
overnight. Further northeast, skies will be mainly clear
overnight, and with light winds expected and lows in the middle
30s, will have to watch out for frost potential in the NE
forecast area Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
A stationary front over southern Kansas, will lift north as a
warm front on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
INVOF this feature Wednesday into WEdnesday night as it lifts
north into central and northern Kansas. Some very light
precipitation north of the warm front, mainly drizzle, may
impact southern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night.
Any precipitation amounts will be very light across the area and
precipitation chances will be limited to slight and low end
chance pops. A potent mid level trough will slide east from the
central and northern Rockies Thursday into Thursday night. In
advance of this feature, low level moisture advection will
increase across the forecast area with low level dew points
approaching the lower 50s. As this feature emerges onto the high
plains Thursday night, the latest deterministic GFS and EC
solns develop a decent chance for precipitation Thursday night
through Friday night. The current NBM forecast does have some
low likely pops Thursday night into Friday across the forecast
area. Given the forecast QPF`s and the QPF probabilities from
the NBM ensembles, likely pops seem justified attm. Conditions
will begin to dry out after Friday as a more zonal low amplitude
pattern develops across the western CONUS. Temperatures will
warm back into the 70s for Saturday, then 80s for Sunday and
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Mostly MVFR with local IFR ceilings will continue through the
afternoon into most of tonight across western and north central
Nebraska. Scatttered showers will be possible through this
evening. Conditions will improve after 12Z Tuesday morning with
skies becoming clear. Surface winds will be north at 10-20 kts
through this evening then decreasing after 06Z Tuesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056-057-094.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ005-006-008-025-026-037-058-059-069-070.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion