201
FXUS63 KLBF 272020
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The precipitation forecast beyond Thursday is low confidence
  given the expected upper level pattern and model run to run
  inconsistencies. However, the best chances for rainfall appear
  to be on Saturday night. There will be a continued chance for
  precipitation during the late afternoon and evening hours
  Sunday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures will be seasonal Thursday through Wednesday with
  daily highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored to the north of
the Bahamas. North of the high, closed lows were noted over northern
portions of Hudson Bay and over eastern portions of Quebec. Further
west, a high amplitude, blocking ridge was present from northern
Missouri, north-northwe4st into the Dakotas, then north into
northeastern Saskatchewan and northwestern Manitoba. Further west,
a decent shortwave trough was present over far northeastern New
Mexico. This feature was a portion of a closed low located south of
of Lake Tahoe. At the surface this afternoon, weak high pressure,
located over Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa, las led to easterly
and southeasterly winds across western and north central Nebraska
this afternoon. Further south, a broad shield of precipitation, in
association with a shortwave over northeastern New Mexico, extended
from northwestern Oklahoma, west-northwest into southwestern and west
central Kansas into eastern Colorado. More isolated showers were
present from northwestern Kansas into east central Colorado. Skies
this afternoon were partly to mostly cloudy in southwestern and
western Nebraska, while cloud cover was clear to mostly clear in
north central and portions of central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2
PM CDT, ranged from 79 degrees at Imperial, to 87 degrees at
Valentine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The upper level shortwave over northeastern New Mexico, will
slowly lift north tonight into eastern Colorado. As this feature
migrates north, a broad shield of precipitation will lift north
across western Kansas, impacting far southwestern portions of
the forecast area late evening. As this feature migrates further
north overnight, the threat for precipitation will spread north
from southwestern into west central portions of the forecast
area Thursday morning. How far north the band of precipitation
reaches Thursday remains uncertain. The deterministic solns
including the NAM12 and 12z HRRR solns do drive some isolated
showers north into west central and even northwestern Nebraska
Thursday. However, looking at the ensemble forecast, there is a
sharp cutoff in precipitation probabilities greater than 0.01
inches. The latest NBM ensemble forecast has a 50% chance of
0.01" precipitation exceedance generally south of a line from
Alliance to Broken Bow Thursday. This exceedance probability
hits 70% generally along and south of I-80. When the QPF
threshold is raised to 0.10" probabilities of exceedance fall
off sharply and are limited to 20 to 50% south of I-80. That
being said, precipitation chances are highest in the southwest
(30-50%) with pops generally slight chance or less north of
I-80. After collaboration with my northern neighbors, decided to
extend slight chance pops to northwestern portions of the
forecast area if the deterministic NAM12 and 12z HRRR does
happen to verify. The shortwave, will transition east from
Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska on Thursday. This will
gradually shift the best lift and precipitation chances east
Thursday. By Thursday evening the latest GFS and NAM12 solns
develop a nice corridor of showers and thunderstorms from south
central into portions of north central and eastern Nebraska with
the 12z HRRR not as indicative of precipitation. The NBM
forecast generally initialized with lower pops and made some
changes mainly to extend pops further north into eastern and
northeastern portions of the forecast area Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Upper level low pressure, anchored over California and Nevada,
will finally begin to eject to the east-northeast Friday. By 00z
Saturday this feature is located in Utah per the latest
deterministic GFS, NAM12 and EC solns. Down stream of this low,
surface low pressure will begin to deepen over eastern Colorado
Friday afternoon. Along the low, a dryline boundary will extend
from southeastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and
southwestern Kansas per the 12z NAM12. The GFS has this boundary
further east into Kansas. As a lead shortwave ejects from the
main low late Friday, showers and thunderstorms develop INVOF
this boundary. The main focus of convection Friday night with
the GFS is over Kansas with the NAM12 soln developing convection
along the Cheyenne Ridge. PWATs Friday night are on the order
1.00 to 1.25" which is above the 100% ire for this time of year.
Deep layer shear across western and north central Nebraska
Friday night remains relatively weak

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion