625
FXUS63 KLBF 211713
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1213 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorm chances are probable (70-90%)
Thursday night through Friday morning with a wetting rain of a
quarter inch or more likely across all of western and north
central Nebraska.
- Dry and warmer conditions return this weekend into early next
week with a return to middle and upper 80s Sunday through
Tuesday.
- The extended forecast suggests broad southwesterly flow with
upstream troughing stalled over the Great Basin favoring
recurring precipitation chances and above normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Today, an upper trough will deepen from Montana south through
Wyoming into the Colorado Rockies. Downstream, atmospheric moisture
will be on the increase from the Southern Plains into western
Nebraska as surface low pressure deepens across New Mexico into
southern Colorado. Southeast winds will become breezy west of
Highway 83 by afternoon. Will see stratus develop across southwest
Nebraska this morning and persist into the afternoon. This will
limit highs to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the mid 60s
northern Nebraska into central Nebraska, where cloud ceilings should
be higher. There will be low chances for showers in the morning
across the southwest as a weak disturbance moves across in southwest
flow aloft. A lead disturbance ahead of the main upper trough will
extend from far southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range by
late afternoon. This will bring increasing chances for showers and
few thunderstorms across the west and south in the afternoon.
Tonight, the lead disturbance in southwest flow aloft will advance
northeast ahead of the main upper trough which is forecast to move
through the panhandle by 12Z. PWATs peak near 0.75 inch across the
northwest Sandhills to a little over an inch elsewhere in the
evening. MUCAPEs should be limited to 300 J/kg or less, and any
thunderstorms should be elevated. A few strong storms may develop
early evening in the western panhandle and northeast Colorado and
could drift into the far southwestern zones and weaken. During the
evening and overnight, a few bands of heavier rainfall oriented
southwest to northeast are likely. Categorical POPs near 90 percent
spread east across the forecast area overnight.
Friday, the upper trough will become negatively tilted, with the
trough axis located from western North Dakota into eastern Nebraska
by 18Z. Categorical POPs through 15Z east of Valentine through
Broken Bow, with chance POPS far southwest. POPs end across the west
by afternoon, with low POPs lingering in the east. Will see clearing
skies from west to east through the day. Winds will turn northwest
behind a cold front, a become windy across the west at 20 to 30 mph
with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Highs to range in the low to mid
60s.
For the Thursday into Friday period, NBM probabilities of over a
quarter inch are near 95 percent across much of the area, and even
from 60 to 90 percent for a half inch or more.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Friday Night...upper trough quickly lifts north and east with
increasing subsidence beneath strong mid-level height rises in its
wake. Precipitation will quickly wane as this happens with a return
to dry conditions for most if not all of west central Nebraska by
Midnight. Cooler air will filter into our western zones but
lingering clouds and low-level moisture should hold eastern zones up
a bit. The result is low temperatures ranging from middle to upper
30s in the west to low to mid 40s in the east. At this time, the
potential for frost appears low but NBM probabilities suggest fairly
expansive 40-60% probabilities for lows to fall below 36F. Will need
to watch this potential in the coming days.
This weekend/early next week...broad height rises overspread much of
the central and western CONUS as high pressure aloft develops across
the Desert Southwest. This should coincide with increasing
temperatures as thermal ridging extends up across the High Plains.
Temperatures at h7 will continue to climb and should surpass the
90th percentile in NAEFS climatology by Monday. This points to the
warmest days of the forecast period being Sunday through Tuesday
with widespread 80s expected and a few locations pushing near 90F on
Monday. This will be joined by largely dry conditions outside a few
low-end chances favoring our western zones in the afternoons.
Ensemble probabilities paint 40-50% of seeing > 0.01" west of
Highway 83 on both Monday and Tuesday. This likely aligns with
isolated convection and the guidance having issues defining a more
precise placement. Stronger troughing will move onshore the Pacific
Northwest by late Monday into Tuesday with a cutoff low taking shape
by early Wednesday. This increases the uncertainty in the extended
forecast as progression and evolution of this feature will play a
large role in local weather. Overall, temperatures appear likely to
remain on the warmer side with strong southwesterly flow across the
area. This should lead to fairly high moisture content towards the
middle of the week but forcing via smaller scale features remains
uncertain at this time. Either way, the pattern appears favorable
for recurring rain chances with the lingering question on if the
necessary lift arrives.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026
Ceilings will continue to lower this afternoon into the evening
hours as a trough of low pressure approaches the area. MVFR and
periodic IFR ceilings will develop tonight across western and
southwestern Nebraska. Periods of rain showers with embedded
thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this evening with
mainly a shower threat continuing into the overnight hours. IFR
conditions are more likely at the KLBF terminal and ceilings
are forecast to be below 1000 FT AGL from 6z to 15z Friday.
Skies will gradually clear late Friday morning at the KLBF
terminal with clouds persisting into the afternoon hours Friday
at the KVTN terminal.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion