772
FXUS63 KLBF 292021
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A marginal risk for severe storms (Level 1 of 5), exists tonight
and again on Sunday for portions of western and north central
Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe
threats.
- Thunderstorm chances will continue Monday into Tuesday. At this
time, the severe threat appears low, however, a strong to
severe storm or two cannot be ruled out especially on Monday
- Temperatures will be above normal this upcoming week with
daily highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
- There will be a continued threat for thunderstorms beyond
Tuesday, however, coverage will be isolated at best.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
H5 pattern across the CONUS this morning was highlighted
by high pressure over eastern New Mexico. Compared to 24 hours ago,
ridging north of this high was lower amplitude and only extended
into south central Canada. East of the ridge, low pressure was
anchored over southern portions of Hudson Bay. Low amplitude
troughing existed south of the low and extended to the New England
and the Mid-Atlantic states. West of the ridge, a tandem of upper
level lows were noted. One over northeastern Alberta and a second
over western portions of Washington State. The latter feature will
influence our weather over the next couple of days. West-
southwesterly flow extended from the central and northern plains to
the west coast. Within this flow a couple of decent shortwaves were
noted this morning. One over northern Utah and a second over
northeastern Arizona. At the surface, an elongated area of low
pressure extended from northeastern Wyoming into south central South
Dakota. South of the South Dakota low, a surface trough extended
south into the Nebraska Sandhills and southwestern Nebraska. Winds
west of the trough were southwesterly and westerly, while east of
the trough winds were more southerly. Skies were partly cloudy this
afternoon and 2 PM temperatures ranged from 89 at Broken Bow and
Gordon to 94 at North Platte.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
The latest CAMS, as well as the NAM12 soln, develop convection
INVOF the Cheyenne Ridge around 21z Saturday. Activity will be
high based, especially over the panhandle and western forecast
area where dew points are currently in the lower to middle 50s.
The 18z RAOB from LBF indicates a "paper thin" moist layer this
afternoon with a dry inverted V type sounding so this threat for
strong winds will extend further east beyond highway 83. As for
precipitation chances tonight, looking at the latest CAMS and
the NBM ensemble probabilities, the greatest threat appears to
be generally west of a line from Grant to Valentine with the
highest pops in the northwestern Sandhills and the eastern
Panhandle. The NBM initialized forecast did have likely pops in
these areas. For the pop forecast, utilized the threshold for
exceedance of 0.05" QPF for pops. The reasoning for this is the
expected high based nature of storms this evening will limit
precipitation reaching the ground and the belief was that the
exceedance probabilities on 0.01" were too great. That being
said, limited pops to 20-40% tonight. Temperatures will remain
fairly mild tonight with overnight lows in the 60s with readings
around 70 in the eastern forecast area. The upper level low
over western Washington (mentioned above), will track along the
Montana/Canadian border Sunday into Sunday evening. Across
Nebraska Sunday, a surface trough will become oriented from SW
into Northeast Nebraska. West of this feature, westerly and
northwesterly surface winds will push drier air into central and
eastern sections of the forecast area Sunday. This drier air,
coupled with a decent surge of warm H85 temperatures from the
southwest, will lead to highs in the low to middle 90s across
the entire forecast area Sunday afternoon. Some readings may
approach 100 degrees in Hayes and Frontier Counties. With the
upper level low well north of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon, the latest NAM12 is indicating a strong cap across
the FA tomorrow afternoon. This cap does weaken somewhat over
the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and the front range of
colorado. ATTM, believe any chances for thunderstorms in the
forecast area will hold off until the arrival of a cold front
late Sunday night. This feature will push into northwestern
Nebraska by 12z Monday. ATTM, the forecast initiated with the
highest pops in SW Nebraska with lesser chances over southern
portions of the panhandle. ATTM, believe we may need to add some
pops over NW Nebraska late Sunday night INVOF the approaching
cold front. For now, will leave the NBM initialized forecast as
is and advise the oncoming shift to be aware of this forecast
"wrinkle".
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
The before mentioned cold front will drift south into northern
Kansas Monday, before lifting north as a warm front Monday
night. Cooler temps are expected for Monday with highs in the
80s to near 90 in SW Nebraska. After dry conditions Monday, the
threat for precipitation will increase Monday evening as the
northerly moving warm front interacts with a decent mid level
disturbance lifting northeast from Colorado. The upper level
pattern will shift somewhat midweek as a trough of low pressure
approaches the west coast. This will force upper level high
pressure east into the Ohio Valley. Resultant low amplitude west
southwest mid level flow and a surface front, meandering across
the forecast area, will lead to a continued threat for
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and
Wednesday. High pressure will retrograde west into the four
corners Friday into Saturday. Ridging will extend north into the
northern Rockies, further limiting precipitation chances Friday
into Saturday. Highs will be in the 90s Friday with upper 80s
and lower 90s for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Widely scattered thunderstorms will track eastward into western
Nebraska and portions of the Sandhills this evening. Localized
variable and strong/gusty winds can be expected with any of the
activity. Otherwise, expecting areas of mid and high level
clouds with light winds.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion