575
FXUS63 KLBF 171736
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1236 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather appears likely again Sunday with an Enhanced
  Risk (level 3 of 5) in place for much of north central
  Nebraska.

- Precipitation will continue into Monday, including some thunderstorm
  threat in the east and cooling temperatures in the west
  potentially leading to a brief rain/snow mix.

- Much of next week will be on the cooler side with highs in the
  60s before warming up for late week into the following
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the convection overnight
and again Sunday afternoon/evening. The strengthening LLJ tonight
will become the focus for additional development overnight into
early Sunday morning. Storms that develop will generally be elevated
in nature overnight, and although most storms should remain below
severe criteria, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can`t be
ruled out with strong winds and hail being the main concern. A few
of the CAMs do suggest the potential for thunderstorms lingering
into the mid-morning across the northern Sandhills, however
confidence is low at this time in thunderstorms continuing in the
morning after sunrise.

Attention turns to Sunday afternoon and early evening. There is some
uncertainty on thunderstorm coverage and severity for Sunday, as it
is dependent on where the front sets up tomorrow. Current thinking
is the front will be situated on the eastern portion of the forecast
warning area by afternoon, generally east of HWY 83. However exactly
how far east will determine how much of the area will see the
potential for sfc based thunderstorm development ahead of the front,
however elevated convection will be possible behind the front. The
latest CAMs have trended with a quicker eastern progression of the
front with the greatest threat for sfc based storm development
across far north central Nebraska, generally from a line from Butte
to Dunning and eastward, where the main hazards will be strong
damaging winds, large hail and even an isolated tornado can`t be
ruled out. Although there will still be the potential to see some
elevated thunderstorms west of the line, where hail will be the main
concern. Will need to continue to monitor as thunderstorm
development is conditional upon the frontal setup, the environment
will be favorable for supercell development as MU CAPE values will
range from around 1500 to 2000 J/kg across western and north central
Nebraska, with greater than 2000 J/kg generally east of HWY 83 in
the afternoon. 0 to 6 km shear increases in the afternoon to around
50 kts or greater. Mid level lapse rates will remain steep through
the afternoon into early evening. The greatest timeframe for strong
to severe thunderstorms at this time would be early afternoon
progressing eastward, with most of the severe threat for convection
out of the forecast area by early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Monday...parent upper-trough will begin to depart the Great Basin
and cross the Central Rockies early in the day. Strong synoptic lift
will promote lee cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado. This will
draw a strong cold front south into western Kansas and promote cold
air advection across much of western Nebraska. Daytime temperatures
continue to fall with consecutive forecasts with highs only reaching
the lower 40s to middle 50s now. Though squarely on the cooler side
of the advancing cold front, steep lapse rates remain in place
across portions of central Nebraska and this will promote elevated
instability within a strongly sheared environment. This fails to
close the door on any threat for a strong/severe thunderstorm in our
eastern zones but does limit the threat considerably. The latest SPC
Outlook keeps only general thunder in the area with a sharp gradient
of Marginal to Slight to Enhanced Risk levels not far to the east.
The NAM12 solution depicts rapid thunderstorm development within
northerly flow of northeast Nebraska, not far from
Garfield/Wheeler/Holt Counties. Folks should continue to monitor the
forecast for the latest details regarding any thunderstorm threat
late in the day. Further west across the Sandhills into the
Panhandle, more persistent precipitation is likely to occur due to
strong synoptics in the area, notable the previously mentioned
height falls, increasing divergence aloft, and DCVA will lead to a
broad shield of light to moderate precipitation. Temperatures at h85
will fall to around 0C with lows falling into the upper 20s to lower
30s. This will support some potential for a brief transition to
snow. The duration of this should remain short enough to preclude
greater impacts though. This is supported by < 10% potential for
seeing measureable snow in the local area. Even so, late May snow is
fairly uncommon and folks should continue to monitor the forecast,
should this outlook remain consistent, for potential minor impacts.

Tuesday and beyond...trough axis will clear the region by late
Monday with mid-level heights expected to build in fairly quick.
Relative zonal flow will become established by midweek with low
amplitude ridging upstream eventually supporting quasi-northwest
flow. High pressure will work in towards Wednesday and will maintain
cooler temperatures. Southerly flow on the backside of this feature
will draw in some moisture and set the stage for some light
precipitation potential. The late week setup will be fairly active
with recurring Chance PoPs (up to 35%) for Thursday through the
weekend. While PoPs suggest reasonable rain potential, moisture will
likely be stymied by a surface front impeding some northerly
moisture advection. This suggests light rain events, not any
particularly wetting event, with lack of any real moisture source.
Temperatures will moderate some, with a return to seasonable levels
by Friday and slightly above normal temperatures by the following
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Degraded aviation conditions are likely over the next 24 hours due
to widespread low stratus and periods of rain and thunderstorms.
Currently, thunderstorms are impacting the KVTN terminal with heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. This activity will
move east of the terminal over the next couple of hours, though
another round of thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon.
Near the KLBF terminal, IFR to LIFR conditions should gradually
improve over the next few hours, though isolated showers remain
possible. Later tonight, another area of thunderstorms may approach
from the southwest, though most guidance weakens this activity
before it reaches the terminal. Toward the end of the TAF period,
drier conditions are expected to return across much of the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Labenz

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion