948
FXUS63 KLBF 110855
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
355 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm conditions persist today, with highs in the upper 90s
  along and west of HWY 83. Scattered storms are also possible
  this afternoon and evening, with a few strong to severe
  storms possible north of HWY 2.

- A pattern shift arrives Wednesday, with slightly cooler t emperatures
  and an increasing threat for widespread showers and
  thunderstorms by Wednesday night.

- Rain/thunderstorm look likely Thursday into at least the
  first of the weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall could occur
  during this timeframe.

- Below normal high temepratures are expected Thursday through
  Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Convection continues to exit central Nebraska currently, and dry
conditions are expected to briefly return to the area shortly after
Midnight. Attention then turns to a supercell across west central
South Dakota approaching the I-90 corridor. Should this storm
continue and possibly grow upscale, a threat for damaging winds
could overspread north central Nebraska prior to sunrise this
morning. However, recent high-res guidance (and notably the WoFS) is
persistent with respect to this supercell weakening rapidly as it
crosses I-90 over the next couple of hours. If this verifies, the
vast majority of the area is expected to remain dry through the rest
of the overnight hours. The lone exception to this would be for
portions of Boyd and far northern Holt counties, where thunderstorms
forming along and east of the Missouri River in South Dakota may
clip as the propagate south and east towards sunrise tomorrow
morning.

The warm conditions hang around one more day today, with highs again
in the upper 90s along and west of HWY 83. Again strong to severe
storms will be possible across portions of the Sandhills and
northern Nebraska this afternoon and evening. It appears
thunderstorms may form again in two regimes, the first being along
the weak surface trough that remains anchored across western
Nebraska. As with previous days, it is likely this convection
largely struggles to organize though a strong to marginally severe
storm cannot be briefly ruled out in this regime. The second would
be if any convection that is progged to form off the Black Hills can
sustain to the HWY 20 corridor late evening. Much like further
south, storms will likely struggle to sustain and confidence in any
impacts to northern Nebraska remains low. Deep layer shear remains
strong and ample instability will be in place should any updrafts
achieve any longevity. Damaging winds and large hail would be the
primary threats tomorrow.

Wednesday then marks the beginning of a pattern shift, as a surface
front approaches the area by Wednesday night. This will also mark
the arrival of deeper moisture to the area, with PWAT values
climbing to as high a 1.75-1.90" by late Wednesday evening. This is
above the 90th percentile climo, and appears to have a monsoonal
origin. With this deeper moisture in place, confidence is slowly
increasing in the potential for widespread beneficial moisture into
late week, with the first round late Wednesday afternoon into the
overnight hours. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is
expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary, with some threat
for damaging winds and hail initially. With the arrival of the
aforementioned very deep moisture, we quickly lose dry air aloft and
CAPE begins to transition to more long and skinny in nature. This
points to any severe threat quickly waning by Wednesday night, and
focus then turns to a threat for locally heavy rainfall. The
antecedent dry conditions will likely hinder any flash flooding
threat, though any widespread moisture is most welcome.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Persistent upper level ridging will remain anchored southern plains
Thursday into the weekend. ENS/GEFS mean PWAT values are high during
this timeframe, as monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft flows
northward then turns east across the region on the northern
periphery of the upper high anchored to our south. ENS continues to
suggest PWAT values greater than 1.6"...which would be exceeding the
the 90th percentile. As several waves/pertubations cross the area,
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday through
Saturday. EFI index does suggest the potential for localized heavy
rainfall Thursday. This seems reasonable with the abundance of
moisture that will be available. The locally heavy rain potential
will likely continue Friday and into Saturday as well. The 10/12Z
ENS mean QPF through Sunday has an average of around 1.5" of
rainfall area wide. The trends will definitely be monitored for this
potential locally heavy rainfall event.

A considerable cool down is also expected Thursday through the
weekend. This is primarily due to a considerable amount of cloud
cover and easterly low-level flow. By Sunday, the low-levels
begin to dry out somewhat, as Canadian high pressure settles
southward into the plains. Temperatures are expected to be below
normal during this timeframe, with highs in the 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas of MVFR are possible early this morning as visibility
drops to between 3-5 miles in BR. A bit of patchy fog will also
be possible across mainly northern Nebraska. All areas should be
VFR by mid to late morning. Surface winds though the day should
generally stay on the light side at 10 kts or less. Scattered
thunderstorms will again be possible late this afternoon and
evening across the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion