355
FXUS63 KLBF 041159
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
659 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible
  during the late afternoon and evening hours across the
  region, with large hail and damaging wind gusts remaining the
  primary threat.

- A brief reprieve from precipitation arrives on Sunday, with
  quiet weather and seasonal temperatures expected.

- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances return Monday and continue
  through much of the following week for much of western
  Nebraska but the threat for severe weather is uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

An upper level high pressure remains over the southeastern United
States, with an upper level shortwave expected to track across the
Dakotas today. Behind the upper level shortwave, a jet maximum is
expected across the northwest, riding along the US-Canada border.
With this upper level flow in place, a surface low will push further
to the east, tracking across Iowa, with a cold front trailing
behind. Throughout the day, the cold front is expected to track
across the region, bringing a focus for additional shower and
thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon
dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected across the
region. Afternoon highs reach around seasonal again, with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. This should allow for modest CAPE
development across the region, on the order of 2,000-3,000 J/kg.
Expecting less deep layer shear, with less supportive upper level
flow, however around 30 knots of shear should support a threat for
discrete convection to develop ahead of the cold front during the
afternoon hours. With cells initially expected to develop as
supercells, expecting the initial threat to be for large hail,
though strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with some of the
stronger downdrafts. CAM guidance struggles with the evolution of
convection, with weaker shear available. While some guidance
suggests discrete convection to continue, there is also some support
for cells to congeal into a line later in the evening. While a
Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) remains in place for western and
southwestern Nebraska, there is some potential for stronger cells to
remain outside of the current outlook, especially across the
Sandhills. Regardless of the outlook, make sure to have multiple
ways to receive warnings and weather updates throughout the day,
especially if you have outdoor plans. Given the more nebulous storm
environment, the forecast may change, especially concerning timing
and location of storm development.

With the current forecast, expecting that most showers and
thunderstorms will track out of the region late in the evening,
likely around 10 PM CDT. Clouds are expected to linger behind the
exiting showers, especially across southwest Nebraska, but
otherwise, pleasant conditions are expected once showers track east.
Winds are expected to be light and variable behind the showers, with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Upper level ridging begins to build across the region on Sunday,
ushering in quieter weather. Highs are expected to remain around
seasonal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For reference,
highs for early July across western Nebraska are right around 89
degrees, and current forecast highs are within a few degrees of
those typical highs. With ridging building, no precipitation is
expected Sunday. However, with better mixing across western
Nebraska, could see some breezy conditions across the Panhandle into
the western Sandhills, with southeasterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph
Sunday afternoon. Winds are expected to remain southerly overnight,
keeping overnight lows in the lower 60s. However, typical lows are
also right around 60 degrees for early July, so this is again near
average.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Broad upper ridging will develop over the southern Rockies with much
of the Plains on the eastern periphery of high pressure aloft.
Thermal ridging across the Great Basin will spill over the
Continental Divide and support warmer temperatures through the
extended forecast. Daytime highs will favor 80s and lower 90s, with
a few slightly warmer days sprinkled in. Overall, highs will be near
to slightly above normal for early July. Flow aloft will relax as
the upper-level jet shifts north along the US/Canadian border.
Though daily thunderstorms will be possible as rich low-level
moisture climbs up to the Front Range, the lack of greater shear
casts doubt on seeing a widespread organized severe episode. Pattern
recognition supports the daily thunderstorm potential, favoring our
western zones, with decreasing PoPs with eastward extent later into
the evening. This will likely be the norm outside of Tuesday where a
more pronounced shortwave and associated low-level jet may help
sustain convection later into the evening. This should favor the
Dakotas though and it`s this area that the NBM paints a more bullish
outlook for rain. By late week, temperatures show a modest upward
trend with NBM median values reaching the middle to upper 90s for
much of the area. This matches NWP output showing building heights
aloft upstream with ample downsloping winds within slightly stronger
mid-level flow. Will need to closely monitor this potential in the
coming days though at quick glance, greater surface dew points
remains east of the area and this should limit if not preclude
greater heat concerns at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside impacts
for convection later on. Do believe activity should remain south
of Valentine so omitted mention at this time. Further south,
activity should develop around KTIF and shift south towards
KOGA/KLBF by late afternoon/early evening. Any impacts should be
short lived with a return to VFR conditions quickly afterwards.
Do believe convection impacts may approach IFR conditions for
select areas but confidence in this occurring at LBF is too low
to mention at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion