770
FXUS63 KLBF 191746
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1246 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in effect Tuesday morning.
- Dry and cooler through Wednesday when light rain showers
return to portions of western Nebraska.
- Temperatures will steadily climb day-over-day through the
weekend, with a return to 70s and 80s likely by
Saturday/Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Temperatures will become cold tonight with lows well below normal.
Normal lows are in the mid 40s to upper 40s. Overnight lows will be
around 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal lows with temperatures in
the 30s. Confidence was greatest in temperatures below freezing for
areas across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 61. For areas
east of HWY 61, there still remains lower confidence in temperatures
dipping below the freezing mark. Latest models have remained
consistent in the low cloud deck sticking around all through the
overnight and morning. Cloud coverage are expected to keep
temperatures from plummeting below freezing and probabilities of
temperatures dropping below freezing levels are around 10 percent
leading to higher confidence temperatures will not reach a hard
freeze east of HWY 61, thus decided to keep the frost advisory going
for this area, instead of upgrading to a freeze warning as lows will
hover just above freezing.
Cooler airmass and northerly winds will keep cooler temperatures for
Tuesday with highs remaining well below normal. Temperatures will
struggle to reach the low 60s across the southern Sandhills into
southwest Nebraska and will be even cooler across the northern
Sandhills with highs in the upper 50s.
A front will move northward into portions of southwest Nebraska
Wednesday. This area will become the focus for some lift in the
area that could lead to a slight chance of rain shower, mainly along
and west of HWY 83 across southwest Nebraska where moisture is
greater. At this time any rainfall that does occur will remain
light, with only around a tenth or less expected. Temperatures on
Wednesday will still remain below normal with highs mostly in the
mid to upper 50s across most of western Nebraska and the Sandhills.
North central Nebraska will be slightly warmer, however temperatures
will struggle to reach the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026
Wednesday Night...Precipitation chances will persist into Wednesday
evening within return southerly flow behind departing high pressure.
A subtle shortwave will cross western Kansas/Nebraska with continued
warm air advection feeding light rain chances. NBM maintains
appreciable QPF probabilities, with 30-45% potential for seeing
0.25" or more south of a Hayes Center to Brady line. Instability is
sorely lacking during this time, so rain should occur largely
without thunder. Even with precipitation potential and increasing
clouds, a fairly cool night is expected with lows falling into the
middle to upper 30s. These values are generally 5-10F below normal
for late May.
Thursday/Friday...upper troughing will settle south across Wyoming
with subsequent height falls overspreading much of the Central High
Plains. Increasing lee troughing will promote slightly backed flow
resulting in increasing moisture reaching the Front Range. Daytime
temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side with highs only
reaching the low to middle 60s. NBM median output suggests modest
instability developing during the afternoon to our west, with
afternoon convection likely to develop along the I-25 corridor.
Within strong westerly mid-level flow, showers and thunderstorms
should move east into our far western zones towards late evening and
persist long enough to reach the Highway 83 corridor. With quickly
waning instability, the threat for any stronger storms appears low.
Thursday night low temperatures should settle into the lower 40s
which will be closer to seasonal norms though continuing to be
slightly below normal. By early Friday, the main trough aloft should
begin to eject out of southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado. A
surface cool front will settle into our western zones and this
coincident with the passing trough axis should herald the end to
precipitation chances. NBM suggests rainfall will favor the morning
hours with decreasing probabilities after daybreak. Beneficial
rainfall appears possible with > 50% probabilities for exceeding
0.50" of rain south of I-80. Decreasing the threshold to > 0.10"
shows 50%+ for all locations southeast of a Cody to Brownlee to
Bartlett line. While certainly not a drought buster, incremental
progress in catching up on the moisture deficit is certainly
welcomed. Even with the approaching front and persistent
clouds/precipitation, temperatures on Friday should continue the
steady climb from the previous few days. Afternoon highs are progged
to reach the low to middle 60s for most and upper 60s for our far
southern zones. This appears to be the final day of widespread below
normal temperatures within the forecast period.
This weekend and beyond...upper troughing will quickly lift north
into Canada with broad positive height anomalies overspreading much
of CONUS. Low-amplitude ridging will establish itself across the
Great Basin by early next week. This will lead to continued warming
temperatures and daytime highs making a return to 80s and
potentially the lower 90s to start next week. Upper ridging does not
appear to be overly strong so concerns for any anomalous heat wave
remains low. Troughing should approach the Pacific Northwest
sometime around Monday/Tuesday. This should effective quell the
upper-ridging and return the area to more favorable southwesterly
flow around Days 7-8. Because of this, precipitation potential
should remain fairly consistent and this aligns with latest CPC Day
6-10 and 8-14 Precipitation outlooks which highlight portions of
western Nebraska with a slight lean wetter than normal as we head
into June.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through tonight across all of
western and north central Nebraska. A weather disturbance will
approach the area tonight, with showers developing across
portions of the Sandhills and espeically southwest Nebraska
Wednesday morning. Surface winds will be north today, becoming
south on Wednesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for NEZ006-007-
009-010-028-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion