906
FXUS63 KLBF 142013
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain showers are expected to continue through the night into
tomorrow afternoon across the region. At least wetting
rainfall is expected across the region.
- Potential for frost increases both Friday and Saturday
morning across the region. Temperatures on Friday morning are
expected to reach subfreezing across western Nebraska, with a
Freeze Watch in effect.
- Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side through
the end of the week. A return to more seasonal temperatures is
expected this weekend, with slightly warmer temperatures next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
The advertised upper level low is centered over western Colorado
this afternoon, with a plume of Pacific moisture tracking across the
region. With the jet maximum located over western Kansas, seeing
mostly divergence aloft across most of western and north central
Nebraska, which will continue to support rain showers. Showers and
thunderstorms are lifting across southern Nebraska this afternoon,
and should continue to do so through the evening. The main surface
low is expected to remain just sough of the region, however, given
the upper level support, more widespread rain chances are expected
overnight. With the available moisture, most areas across western
and north central Nebraska should see at least wetting rainfall.
Interestingly, even at this short range, there is still disagreement
in the models on how much impact the dry slot this evening will play
into rainfall totals. The HRRR in particular remains quite
unperturbed, giving most areas half an inch to an inch of
precipitation. However, the latest NAM and NAM Nest guidance fall
more in line with ensemble guidance, suggesting lower precipitation
amounts. In fact, the NAM based solutions mostly cap out at or
around half an inch for most areas. Ensemble guidance continues to
show very high probabilities, greater than 90 percent, for most of
the region to exceed one tenth of an inch. However, the latest run
of the European ensembles have decreased probabilities on exceeding
half an inch. Even the latest WPC guidance has backed off a bit on
rainfall totals across the region. While chances for rain remain
quite high tonight and into tomorrow afternoon, may be seeing
slightly lower amounts than previously forecast. In general, do
believe that amounts between a quarter and half inch are likely for
most areas, though there may be some potential for locally higher
amounts. Building some confidence in locally higher amounts is the
consistency in guidance to provide a region of wrap around
precipitation from the southern low along with forcing from a cold
front on a northern low. This should provide one more push of rain
across the region tomorrow, as both lows track to the east.
Throughout the day tomorrow, something else to keep in mind will be
the potential for strong, northerly wind gusts throughout the
afternoon into the overnight hours. As the surface low tracks east,
high pressure from the northern Plains begins to sink to the south,
which will increase the pressure gradient across the region. As this
occurs, expect strong northerly winds across the region, with
strongest winds around 25 to 30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph. With
these conditions in play, highs across the region are only expected
to reach the low to mid 50s, which is a bit cooler than usual for
mid October (around 10 degrees cooler than average).
Overnight Thursday into early Friday morning, cold air continues to
spill across the region following the cold front. Skies are expected
to clear across western Nebraska in the evening, which should help
with radiational cooling effects overnight. With cold air advection
behind the front, and 850 mb temperatures around -3 degC, expecting
that we will see temperatures plummeting around the freezing mark
for most of the region, but especially areas along and west of
Highway 61. Expecting most areas west of Highway 83 to at least
reach 32 briefly Friday morning, but areas west of Highway 61 are
more likely to see lows at or below 28 degrees. With this in mind,
after collaborating with neighboring offices went ahead and issued a
Freeze Watch for overnight Thursday into Friday morning west of
Highway 61, where hard freeze conditions are possible. Will also
continue to monitor the potential for frost across more of the area.
However, confidence in where frost will spread is a still medium to
low, especially concerning how far east frost may develop. Will
continue to closely monitor forecast trends to see if a Frost
Advisory will also be needed Friday morning, as well as if an
upgrade to a Freeze Warning will be warranted. For what its worth,
this is fairly late for our first potential frost of the season, as
we typically see our first frosts around September 21, with our
first freeze around September 29. In fact, we typically have even
seen our first hard freeze (28 degrees or colder) by this time of
year, as the median date for the first hard freeze is October 10.
In addition to the frost and freeze potential, the gusty northerly
winds will still be present overnight lasting until late Friday
morning. This will at the very least bring cold wind chills across
the entire region. Expecting wind chills Friday morning will at
least be in the lower 20s across the entire region, with potential
for wind chills in the teens across the Sandhills and Panhandle.
After the chilly start Friday morning, expecting mostly clear skies
throughout the day, with highs eventually building into the low to
mid 50s.
Skies remain clear Friday night into Saturday morning, which will
again allow for cold temperatures across the region. Lows again are
expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with warmest lows
hovering right around the freezing mark. With these overnight lows,
there is potential for the rest of the region to see frost Saturday
morning, so will continue to monitor if a Frost Advisory is
needed.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
A chilly start to Saturday is expected, as lows hover around the
freezing mark, with potential for frost across most of the region.
Southerly winds across the region will keep things feeling on the
cold side, with wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s across
the region. However, by the afternoon, upper level ridging begins to
track across the region, which should usher in some more seasonal
high temperatures through the weekend. Typical highs for the weekend
are around 63 to 65 degrees. The latest forecast brings highs around
the mid 60s to lower 70s, so right around to slightly warmer than
typical. This will also usher in slightly warmer overnight lows, as
well, with lows Sunday and Monday morning expected to be in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.
As the northern jet remains north of the region early next week,
expect that our temperatures will return to slightly above seasonal
average, with highs returning to the low to mid 70s. Also expect to
see lows climbing back into the 40s, potentially the lower 50s in
spots. This should also keep a fairly dry and quiet weather pattern
through at least mid week. However, long range guidance does suggest
the potential for another upper level trough to arrive sometime
around mid week, which may bring additional rain chances mid to late
week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
MVFR ceilings will spread northward across the region late this
afternoon into this evening. Rain showers will also become more
numerous though the afternoon and especially through tonight
into Thursday morning. Localized IFR ceilings are expected
across the Sandhills, central and southwest Nebraska after
mid-evening tonight. Winds will generally be light, but switch
to the north to northeast and increase Thursday morning.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning
for NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-069-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion