802
FXUS63 KLBF 171129
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
529 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A very cold start this morning across most of the region,
with wind chills ranging from 10 to 25 below zero. A Cold
Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern Nebraska this
morning, where wind chills are expected to remain 20 below
zero or colder.
- The combination of low relative humidity and gusty
northwesterly winds will lead to critical fire weather
conditions across western and southwestern Nebraska. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon across the Panhandle
and southwest Nebraska.
- Gusty winds persist on Sunday as well, with northwesterly wind
gusts up to 45 mph Sunday afternoon. Warming temperatures and
gusty winds may lead to additional fire weather concerns.
- Temperatures fluctuate throughout the week, with the forecast
remaining mostly dry through the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 403 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
A cold front tracks across Nebraska this morning, bringing frigid
temperatures in its wake. As of 3 AM, already observing wind chills
of 20 to 25 below zero along the South Dakota-Nebraska border
continuing to track south across the region. Given the timing of the
front, have made no changes to the inherited Cold Weather Advisory,
as the coldest wind chills are expected to remain along and north of
Highway 2. However, counties on the edge of the Advisory may see
wind chills briefly drop to or below 20 below zero this morning. By
late morning, still expecting that most of the 20 below wind chills
will stop, however, wind chills of 10 to 15 below zero may persist
through the afternoon in portions of north central Nebraska.
Temperatures remain on the cool side today, with highs ranging from
the teens across north central Nebraska to the upper 20s across the
Panhandle. Despite the cold temperatures, very dry air is expected
across western Nebraska, with afternoon relative humidity values in
the low teens. Strong northwesterly winds continue across western
and southwestern Nebraska this afternoon, with sustained winds
remaining around 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Given the very dry
environment and strong winds, critical fire weather conditions are
expected across western and southwestern Nebraska this afternoon,
with a Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon. By this evening,
winds will decrease across western Nebraska.
The calmer winds Saturday night into Sunday morning will limit
overnight wind chills, with most wind chills remaining above zero.
Lows still remain cold, with actual temperatures in the single
digits to low teens. By Sunday afternoon, temperatures are expected
to warm across most of the region, with highs ranging from the mid
30s across north central Nebraska to the mid 40s across southwest
Nebraska and the Panhandle. Slightly higher humidity values are
expected on Sunday, with minimum relative humidity values remaining
at or above 30 percent. Yet again, windy conditions are expected on
Sunday, with strong northwest sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph with
gusts of 50 mph or greater throughout the afternoon. Though humidity
values remain above critical thresholds, the strong gusty winds and
general lack of meaningful precipitation may lead to additional fire
weather concerns Sunday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Another cold start is expected Monday morning, with lows ranging
from the single digits into the low teens. Wind chills are expected
to range from the low single digits across southwest Nebraska to
around 10 to 15 below zero across north central Nebraska. Conditions
look to be breezy again on Monday, with northwest wind gusts
continuing across western Nebraska Monday afternoon.
The rest of the week, highly variable and fluctuating temperature
are expected. An upper level ridge sets up across the western United
States, with several shortwaves tracking through the upper level
flow. This will create an active upper level pattern across
Nebraska, with ridging bringing warming conditions and shortwaves
bringing in blasts of cooler, arctic air. Much will depend on how
the upper level pattern evolves, so expect that changes in the long
term forecast will be likely. For instance, latest NBM guidance
shows quite a spread in potential high temperatures mid to late
week, with the range between the 25th and 75th percentile solutions
varying by nearly 20 degrees.Will continue to monitor forecast
trends, however, as previously stated, changes are likely in the
long term forecast as solutions come into better agreement.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
A low pressure system and cold front are tracking through western
Nebraska this morning, bringing gusty northerly to northwesterly
winds across the region. Conditions range from VFR across western
and southwestern Nebraska to MVFR across north central Nebraska,
where lower ceilings and pockets of blowing snow are creating
visibility restrictions. As the low tracks further south this
afternoon, conditions improve to VFR across the region, with winds
decreasing by the evening. Overnight, the development of a strong
low level jet may introduce LLWS concerns and gusty surface winds.
Confidence is medium in location and intensity, so will omit from
TAFs for the time being, until confidence improves.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026
Despite cold temperatures across the region this afternoon,
critical fire weather conditions are expected across western and
southwestern Nebraska this afternoon. Overnight humidity recovery
has been quite poor ahead of the cold front, with peak recovery to
around 55 percent across southwest Nebraska. This afternoon, very
dry air will drop relative humidity values into the low teens.
Sustained northwest winds of 25 mph are expected with gusts up to
40 mph. As such, have kept the Red Flag Warning across fire
weather zones 204 and 210 this afternoon.
Overnight humidity recovery is again expected to be poor tonight
into Sunday, again recovering to around 55 percent across
southwest Nebraska. Slightly warmer conditions are expected across
southwest Nebraska Sunday afternoon, with highs reaching the mid
to upper 40s. While afternoon humidity is expected to drop around
30 percent, winds remain gusty again on Sunday. Winds on Sunday
are expected to sustain around 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon, with
sporadic gusts up to 50 mph. This may lead to additional fire
weather concerns Sunday afternoon.
Highly variable temperatures are expected this week, driven by an
active upper level pattern. However, fire weather concerns return
again on Tuesday, as highs are expected to climb into the 50s
across the region. These warmer temperatures may be accompanied by
gusty winds and lower humidity values. Beyond Tuesday, a mostly
dry forecast is expected with variable temperatures.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning
for NEZ004>010-023>029-094.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
afternoon for NEZ204-210.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Richie
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion