161
FXUS63 KLBF 061943
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
143 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Patchy fog is possible again tonight into Saturday morning,
especially across the eastern and northeastern portions of the area.

-Well above-normal temperatures are expected this weekend, with
highs reaching the 60s and potentially upper 60s in some locations.

-Above-normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected to
continue through the early into the middle of next week, with highs
generally in the lower to middle 60s and limited precipitation
chances.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Currently, a weak southern-stream disturbance is located across the
Desert Southwest, promoting increasing westerly flow aloft across
the region. Warm air advection (WAA) in the lower to middle levels
will increase through the day as 850-mb and 700-mb winds become more
southwesterly, supporting 850-mb temperatures increasing into the 10
to 13C range by this afternoon. Mid- to upper-level cloud cover
associated with the disturbance to the west will continue to move
across the region, though sufficient daytime mixing should allow
highs to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area,
with lower 50s expected farther east. Tonight, mid- to upper-level
cloud cover should gradually exit the region from west to east.
Meanwhile, increasing low-level moisture advection and light winds
may support another round of fog development overnight into Saturday
morning. Latest convection-allowing model guidance suggests the
greatest potential for fog across eastern and northeastern portions
of the forecast area. Fog coverage is expected to be less widespread
than this morning, though localized dense fog cannot be ruled out.
Confidence remains somewhat limited regarding the exact location and
intensity of fog development, and observational trends and
subsequent guidance will need to be monitored through the evening
and overnight. Overnight lows should generally remain near or
slightly above freezing across much of the area, with increasing low-
level moisture potentially limiting radiational cooling where fog or
low clouds develop.

Saturday, upper-level flow will become more northwesterly as ridging
continues to build across the northern Plains, with troughing
remaining across the northeastern United States. At the surface,
winds will become more westerly, favoring downslope warming and
drying from the Rockies, particularly across central and western
Nebraska. Warmer temperatures in the lower to middle levels will
support 850-mb temperatures in the 10 to 13C range across much of
the region. With clearing skies, drier air, and more efficient
boundary-layer mixing, highs should reach the lower to middle 60s
across much of the area, with upper 60s possible across southwestern
Nebraska where the warmest 850-mb temperatures are expected. These
temperatures would be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early
November. Overnight lows Saturday night should generally remain in
the middle to upper 30s, which is also above normal for this time of
year.

Sunday, the upper-level ridge across the northern Plains will
continue to amplify, with rising 500-mb heights and a persistent
split-flow pattern across the CONUS. Southwesterly flow at 850 mb
will continue to support warm air advection, with temperatures at
this level increasing into the 13 to 15C range. With mostly clear
skies and sufficient boundary-layer mixing, highs should reach the
middle to upper 60s across much of the area, continuing the trend of
well above-normal temperatures. A tightening surface pressure
gradient will also support increasing southwest winds Sunday
afternoon, particularly across the Sandhills into north-central
Nebraska. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph,
appear possible. Fire weather concerns may increase somewhat Sunday
afternoon as minimum relative humidity values approach 25 percent
across portions of western Nebraska. However, uncertainty remains
regarding the extent of overlap between the lowest relative humidity
values and strongest wind gusts. This will bear watching as Sunday
approaches, particularly if deeper boundary-layer mixing results in
lower relative humidity values or stronger wind gusts than currently
forecast. Overnight lows Sunday night should generally remain in the
upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Early into the middle of next week, split upper-level flow will
continue across North America as an amplified ridge remains
established across the northern Plains. This pattern will favor the
polar jet stream remaining displaced north of the forecast area,
while the southern-stream jet remains farther south across the
southern CONUS. With the strongest forcing for ascent remaining
displaced north and south of the region, generally dry conditions
are expected across western and north-central Nebraska. Through
Wednesday, the NBM and GEFS/EPS ensemble guidance continue to favor
above-normal temperatures, with highs generally reaching the lower
to middle 60s across much of the area. Persistent upper-level
ridging, along with anomalously warm temperatures in the lower to
middle levels, should support continued above-normal temperatures
and limited precipitation chances through the middle of next week.
By Thursday, forecast uncertainty begins to increase as differences
emerge in the evolution of the upper-level pattern. The GFS/GEFS
favors a trough digging farther south and west beneath the ridge
across southern Canada, while the ECMWF/EPS maintains this feature
farther east. Should the trough develop farther west and progress
southward, a return to cooler temperatures would become more likely
across western and north-central Nebraska. However, if the trough
remains farther east, upper-level ridging may persist across the
region, allowing above-normal temperatures to continue. Confidence
remains low regarding the eventual evolution of this feature given
the differences among ensemble guidance and the extended forecast
range. Regardless, precipitation chances are expected to remain low
through much of the long-term period, with the primary storm tracks
generally remaining north and south of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Fog has continued to dissipate across the area, with
VFR conditions expected to prevail across much of western and north-
central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Light south to southwest
winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue through the afternoon and
evening before becoming light and variable overnight. Increasing mid-
 to upper-level cloud cover will result in broken cloud decks at
both terminals, though ceilings are expected to remain within VFR
thresholds. Some fog development remains possible early Saturday
morning, particularly across eastern and northeastern portions of
the forecast area, including KLBF. However, confidence remains low
regarding the coverage, timing, and potential visibility
restrictions associated with any fog development. This will continue
to be monitored and refined in subsequent TAF issuances.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Labenz
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Labenz

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion