005
FXUS63 KLBF 070729
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
229 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected early
  Saturday morning across portions of northern into central
  Nebraska. A few of these storms could be severe, with a threat
  for damaging winds and large hail.

- Much warmer temperatures return to areas along and west of
  Highway 83 on Saturday, with highs in the upper 90s to around
  100.

- Near daily chances for at least some rainfall/scattered
  thunderstorm chances Sunday into next week.

- High temperatures start out very warm the first of next week,
  but then cool some toward the middle and latter parts of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A surface cool front, currently moving through western South Dakota,
is expected to continue to move south into the area through sunrise
this morning. By late morning, this front is expected to stall near
or just south of the I-80 corridor, ushering in much drier air into
the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. This front will also bring
gusty northwest winds in its wake, with gusts of 25 to 30 miles per
hour expected this afternoon across the Sandhills. Along and south
of the stalled frontal boundary, richer dewpoints in the middle to
upper 60s are expected to pool in persistent easterly flow. This
will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable instability and deep
layer shear, though no convection is anticipated during the daylight
hours today. This is due to a couple of factors, with the first
being warm air aloft leading to strong CIN, which does not look to
erode much late afternoon. The second is continued subtle height
rises aloft, as upper ridging continues to establish across the Four
Corners through the day. This should be more than enough to keep
southwest Nebraska dry through sunset.

After sunset this is expected to quickly change, as a strengthening
LLJ overspreads much of western and eventually central/north central
Nebraska. Guidance continues to come into better agreement with
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development early Saturday
morning, primarily near the South Dakota/Nebraska border initially.
Ample MUCAPE of ~2000-2500J/kg will be in place across the area,
along with adequate flow aloft for effective shear ~50-60kts.
Straight hodographs within the LFC-EL layer suggests some large hail
threat with updrafts as they initiate and can remain at least semi-
discrete, with guidance then suggesting some damaging wind threat
after storms grow upscale. Corfidi vectors ~305-310deg suggest an
eventual propagation from northwest to southeast, from northern into
central Nebraska through the pre-dawn to late morning hours
Saturday. The greatest severe threat may reside off to the south and
east of the local area, where eventual daytime heating will allow
for greater potential for storms to become surface based. Still,
some threat for large hail and damaging winds looks to exist early
Saturday morning prior to the line of storms exiting off to the
southeast. Dry conditions are then expected to prevail through the
remainder of the day Saturday in the wake of the departing MCS. Much
warmer temperatures are also expected by Saturday afternoon, though
any lingering cloud debris lends some uncertainty across central
Nebraska. Further west, temperatures look to soar into the upper 90s
to near 100F, as H7-H85 temps approach the 90th percentile climo.
That said, lesser humidity is expected to keep heat index values in
the middle to upper 90s Saturday afternoon, and preclude any heat
advisory concerns for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the Four Corners
region the through the first of next week. This will allow for some
monsoonal-subtropical moisture to rotate north and then eastward
across our area around the ridge periphery. This will bring near
daily chances for at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Ensemble guidance maintains the stronger winds aloft farther north
across South Dakota the first of the week, with those shifting
southward some by the middle and latter part of next week. Mean PWAT
values remain on the high side through much of the week, generally
in the 1.2 to 1.4" range. With the stronger winds aloft remaining to
our north, severe storm activity seems low. However, locally heavy
rainfall could be a concern due to the abundance of moisture and
slow moving nature of the storms.

Temperatures will be quite warm Sunday and Monday, with highs
nearing the century mark, especially Sunday across southwest
Nebraska. As the ridge flattens some, and translates from the
Four Corners to the souther plains by the middle and latter parts
of the week, temperatures will likely cool as a cold front sags
southward through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part but areas of low
ceilings and MVFR and local IFR will be possible especially
across portions of central Nebraska early this morning.
Otherwise, northeast winds will increase to between 10-15 kts by
this afternoon, as a weak cold front slides southward across
the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion