971
FXUS63 KLBF 082312
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Friday and Saturday from 85 to
  around 90 across the forecast area. Elevated to near critical
  fire weather conditions each afternoon across the western
  Sandhills.

- A weak cold front will move through the area Sunday, with
  cooler temperatures in the mid 60s to upper 70s Monday and
  60s to near 70 Tuesday.

- Low precipitation chances Monday night over the northwest
  Sandhills, with precipitation chances increasing across the
  remainder of western and north central Nebraska Tuesday night
  and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Tonight...the upper flow will become zonal as an upper trough moves
from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. A strong thermal
ridge will reside over the Central Plains. Surface winds become
light and variable, though overnight lows remain mild from 50 to 55.
These lows are well above normal from 15 to near 20 degrees above
normal.

Friday...the upper flow will become southwesterly as an upper trough
and closed low across the Pacific Northwest deepens into the Western
U.S. Surface low pressure will persist across the Northern and
Central High Plains, bringing breezy southerly winds 15 to 25
mph by Friday afternoon, and highs 85 to near 90. Some guidance
supports highs could reach the lower 90s across much of the
west. The record high for North Platte is 95 degrees. Records
for Imperial, Broken Bow and Valentine are 91 degrees Friday.
Based on current forecast trends, Imperial and Valentine have
the best chances of hitting a record high on Friday. Southerly
winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph Friday afternoon across the
central and east.

Friday night...a strong low level jet, east of a surface trough
of low pressure over the Nebraska Panhandle, will lead to a
well mixed boundary layer Friday night into Saturday morning.
With a mixed boundary layer, mild temperatures will continue
into the overnight hours and Saturday morning. The latest NBM
ensemble forecast has a low of 61 for LBF Saturday morning.
This would be a record high minimum temperature for October
10th (record is 59).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Saturday, ridging aloft will break down. With the ridge breakdown
and a cold front dropping through the Black Hills Saturday
afternoon, very warm air will reside across western and north
central Nebraska. Another very warm day is expected across the
forecast area. Southwesterly winds will be strong at 20 to 35 mph
across the east, and 10 to 20 mph across the western Sandhills. NBM
forecast highs mainly 85 to 92. Highs could be a few degrees warmer
than this, supported by the latest MAV guidance. As for records
Saturday, they are 88, 93, 94 and 95 degrees for Broken Bow, North
Platte, Imperial and Valentine respectively.

Sunday, the upper trough will persist across the West Coast, while
upper ridging returns to the Southern and Central Plains. A weak
cold front will move through the area. Highs temperatures will be
cooler, yet still 5 to 15 degrees above normal, from the upper 60s
to mid 70s northwest Sandhills to the upper 70s to low 80s (near 85
far southwest). Winds will turn to the north and northeast in the
afternoon 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday night into Monday, the surface front will stall across
southern NE into central WY. Precipitation will remain off to our
northwest across portions of WY and western SD. With the location of
the surface front, highs have trended warmer from the mid 60s far
northern NE, to upper 60s and mid 70s (near 80 far southwest). A
slight chance for showers Monday night across the northwest
Sandhills as a weak disturbance and cold front move into the
area. The flow aloft will transition to southwesterly as a broad
trough of low pressure deepens across the western U.S Tuesday
into Wednesday. A shortwave trough may eject northeast across
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with chance POPs. The
deterministic 12Z GFS shows western NE in the dry slot, to limit
any chances for showers. The ECMWF remains more favorable, with
the shortwave trough slower, deeper and further east. The NBM
24-hr probability of 0.10 inch or greater is from 40 to 50
percent. A slight warmup to the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday.
A portion of the upper trough will push east across the Northern
Plains Thursday, driving a cold front through western NE. Highs
cooler from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low chance POPS linger
into Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow evening
across western and north central Nebraska. The exception to this
would be the possibility of patchy fog development across north
central Nebraska, though confidence in this remains low for now.

Winds become light and variable overnight, at 5kts or less.
Winds then strengthen from the south tomorrow afternoon, with
gusts of 20 to 30kts expected for all area terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns for the western
Sandhills on Friday. A surface trough will be located near the NE/WY
border. This will bring dewpoints down into the upper 30s and lower
40s near and west of Highway 61 for a few hours during the
afternoon, with humidity down into the upper teens and lower 20s. A
south southwest wind is expected to range from 10 to 20 mph, with a
few higher gusts possible. The stronger winds will be near and east
of Highway 83, at 15 to 25 mph with a few gusts to 30 mph. No Fire
Weather headlines are out at this time, as winds gusts and duration
of low humidity fall short of Red Flag conditions.

Saturday, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns again for
the western Sandhills. Dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s do
push further east across Cherry county, with the area of concern for
areas near and west of Imperial through Valentine. Minimum RH
Saturday afternoon will approach 15 to 20 percent for a few
hours. However, south to southwest wind gusts are expected to
remain below critical criteria of 25 mph. Stronger winds are
expected from Ainsworth and Broken BoW and east. However,
minimum RH in these areas will range from 25 to 35 percent. Will
mention the elevated to near critical fire weather concerns in
the HWO and fire weather forecast.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Brown
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion