779
FXUS63 KLBF 151102
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
602 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing
  chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon
  and Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall could develop.

- Drier and cooler weather is expected for the weekend into the
  first of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Today, surface high pressure will move across western Nebraska as a
cold front reaches the Texas panhandle through northeast Kansas by
late afternoon. Northeast winds will become easterly this afternoon.
Highs will range from 71 to 75 which is about 5 degrees below
normal. Dry conditions with skies becoming mostly sunny north
central, with mostly cloudy skies lingering across far southwest
Nebraska through late afternoon.

Tonight, winds will turn to the south and southeast, with an
increase in low and mid level moisture. Stratus should develop
across southwest and central Nebraska late. No fog is shown by the
latest mesoscale models. Showers look less likely, with only a
slight chance across portions of southwest and central Nebraska
after midnight. Lows from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday, expecting morning stratus, with clearing in the west and
cloudiness into the afternoon across the east. Only a slight chance
for morning showers in the far southeast. Surface low pressure will
deepen along the Front Range of Colorado into Wyoming, bringing a
south wind with breezy conditions in the west. Stratus and afternoon
clouds will hold back highs in the east to the low to mid 70s, while
the west reaches the upper 70s to lower 80s, aided by more sunshine
and deeper mixing.

Wednesday night, a warm front will lift to near the NE/KS border.
With a strengthening low level jet, this will bring increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms, with likely POPs after
midnight across southwest into central Nebraska. At this time only
general thunderstorms are forecast. Lows 55 to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026


Southwest flow aloft will be in place Thursday and Friday. This is a
result of upper high pressure anchored across the southeast CONUS
and an upper low across the Pacific northwest. This will allow a
surge of sub-tropical moisture to move northeastward into the area.
09/18Z ENS/GEFS PWATS increase substantially Thursday and Thursday
night. Anomalously high values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches will be in
place. As a shortwave disturbance tracks northeastward across the
area, surface low pressure deepens across northeast Colorado. A warm
front will arc eastward from the low. As mentioned, an increase mid-
level sub-tropical moisture is expected, with an increase in low-
level moisture as well. Locally heavy rainfall could become a
concern Thursday night, as a southerly low-level jet develops across
Kansas and noses into the warm front located across the southern
Nebraska vicinity. Elevated instability will increase north of the
front across much of western and north central Nebraska, with
showers and thunderstorms expected to develop. The 09/18Z ENS 24
mean QPF is exceeding 1", with a bullseye located across the
Sandhills into north central Nebraska. POPs are high during this
timeframe and see no reason to lower with all the available moisture
and warm frontal boundary set-up across the area.

The upper level low across the Pacific northwest will fill and
translate eastward across the Northern Plains Friday. Ridging aloft
then builds across the area during the weekend into the first of
next week. At the surface, a cold front will move southward through
the area Saturday with a cooler, drier Canadian airmass spreading
into the area Saturday through Monday. Highs will mostly be in the
70s during this timeframe with only a slight chance for any
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Patchy MVFR ceilings will dissipate across southwest Nebraska
this morning as drier air moves in from the north. Otherwise
VFR can be expected until late tonight. Late tonight, after 10Z
Wednesday, MVFR ceilings are expected to shift north into
southwest Nebraska as low-level moisture/humidity returns
northward into the area.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion