154
FXUS63 KLBF 120531
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1131 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures are expected through the
  forecast period with values exceeding 10F above normal each
  day, peaking up to 30F above normal for Sunday through
  Tuesday.

- Fire weather concerns will increase early next week to
  coincide with the warmest days of the forecast period.

- Outside of late Friday into early Saturday for areas south of
  Highway 2, dry conditions are expected through the middle of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 355 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

This afternoon, dry and mild conditions were observed across much of
the Central Plains. Modest high pressure was located over the lower
Missouri Valley. As lee troughing increased, southerly flow
strengthened and pushed wind gusts into the 20 to 30 mph range. LBF
RAOB data from 18z (Noon CST) showed h85 temperatures hovering close
to the median value for February 11. High shave managed to climb
into the 50s for all of western and central Nebraska which is
approximately 10-15F above normal for the time of year. Mid-level
clouds have remained persistent across the region as southwesterly
mid-level flow helps advect greater moisture across the central
Rockies. Though weak lift exists, ample dry air in the low-levels
will preclude any potential for precipitation through the daytime.

Tonight...winds will gradually veer to the southwest and then
northwest as an inverted surface-trough precedes an approaching weak
cool front. Given continued weak lift but abundant dry air, will
favor a dry forecast. Can`t rule out a few stray sprinkles but given
no impact from this, will omit from the forecast. Cloud cover will
gradually wane through the overnight towards daybreak Thursday. Did
boost forecast lows slightly as winds remain fairly steady out of
the northwest with weak cold air advection (CAA) only arriving for
the last few hours prior to sunrise. The result is lows ranging from
near 30F over portions of the Sandhills to middle and lower 20s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Thursday through Saturday...mild and largely dry conditions will
persist through the end of the week. A split flow pattern will set
up by late Thursday as weak troughing tracks east out of central
California. Temperatures will remain in the 15-25F above normal
range for the time frame with persistent southwesterly mid-level
flow. As a deeper trough takes shape across the Southern Rockies by
late Friday, southerly flow should introduce increasing moisture in
the area and potential for some light rain across our southern
zones. Overall the best potential appears to be late Friday into
early Saturday as the main disturbance pushes onto the Southern
Plains. Upper-level dynamics will be displaced well to the south and
this will limit if not prevent most locations from seeing beneficial
moisture. Our southwest and central Nebraska zones may see enough
lift via h7 convergence on the northwest periphery of the passing
low to warrant the 15-35% PoPs in the forecast. Even so, ensemble
guidance is quite muted in QPF output. Both EPS/GEFS maintain < 10%
probabilities of exceeding 0.10" of liquid in the local area. So
though a few locations could manage to see measureable rainfall, it
won`t amount to much.

Sunday through Tuesday...the warmest days of the forecast period
will also potentially lead to increased fire weather concerns. As
the Southern Plains disturbance quickly slides east towards the
Lower Mississippi Valley, shortwave ridging will build in. The ridge
axis should arrive sometime late Sunday into early Monday with NAEFS
guidance suggesting mid-level heights exceeding the 90th percentile
and temperatures not too far behind. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
(EFI) highlights early next week with the greatest anomalies and non-
zero Shift of Tails values by Tuesday. The going forecast calls for
highs to climb into the middle to upper 60s by Monday with near
record warm minimum temperatures at the same time. Increasingly
active weather appears likely to arrive towards the middle of next
week. While this may reintroduce precipitation potential, confidence
in placement and amounts is low. Temperatures look to remain warm
and thus the threat for wintry weather is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Over the next 24 hours, scattered high cloudiness will drift
across the area with ceilings around 25000 FT AGL. Winds will be
light and variable overnight shifting to the north or northwest
Thursday morning with wind speeds generally 10 to 15 KTS. Winds
Thursday evening will diminish and will be variable at under 10
KTS.



&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Buttler

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion