506
FXUS63 KLBF 141934
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
134 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain is possible for areas near Highway 6 through this
  evening, though little to no accumulations are expected.

- Temperatures warm back into the 50s to low 60s for midweek,
  along with breezy southeast winds continuing.

- A system approaches the area Friday and into the weekend,
  bringing the potential for accumulating precipitation and
  strong northwest winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Currently, upper low pressure is slowly ejecting southeast out of
the Rockies, and is expected to move into the southern Plains by
tonight. This places the area within a broad moist advection regime,
with middle and high clouds streaming in from the south. At the
surface, the area remains positioned between broad low pressure
along the lee of the Rockies and strong high pressure centered over
eastern Iowa and Missouri. This has promoted a constricted surface
pressure gradient across the area, and is leading to southeast winds
gusting as high as 30 to 40 miles per hour this afternoon.

This broad ascent has allowed for persistent cloudiness across much
of western and southwest Nebraska, along with some light rain across
portions of western Kansas. Despite the warm advection, temperatures
remain steady in the lower to middle 40s, largely due a persistent
colder airmass aloft (1-3C at H85). Guidance continues to suggest
the aforementioned light rain could lift as far as the HWY 6 corridor
into this evening, though any accumulations look to remain little to
none. This is supported by recent NBM guidance, with probabilities
of even 0.05" as low as 15% or less for areas along HWY 6.

This system will quickly depart by tonight, with dry conditions
expected in its wake for tomorrow and into early next week.
Increasing subsidence aloft will allow for clearing skies tomorrow
afternoon, and this combined with increasing warm advection will
allow temperatures to rebound into the 50s. The warming trend is
expected to continue into Monday, with highs expected to be around 5
degrees warmer at any given location. This translates to highs in
the middle 50s to near 60 degrees Monday afternoon. Aloft, an upper
ridge axis begins to push east of the area by Monday evening,
brining a return of southwesterly flow into Monday night. In
response, expect a return of middle and high level cloudiness as
moisture begins to stream in aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Longwave troughing is expected to push east out of the Intermountain
West and across the Rockies Tuesday, finally pushing into the
northern Plains by Wednesday afternoon. This keeps the area under
the influence of the southwesterly flow aloft in advance of this
trough, along within a persistent low level warm advection regime.
This keeps temperatures above average both Tuesday and Wednesday,
with highs generally in the 50s to low 60s. By Wednesday afternoon
as the aforementioned trough begins its trek into the Plains, an
associated surface low will eject east out of northeastern Wyoming
and across the Dakotas. This will bring a cold front through the
area by late afternoon from west to east. Some light precipitation
remains possible with the passage of this front, though confidence
in this remains low at best. Ensemble guidance paints broad
probabilities as high as 30-40% of >0.01" across much of the area,
though fall to generally 10% or less for >0.1". Gusty northwest
winds can also be expected Wednesday evening behind the front, with
gusts up to 30 to 35 miles per hour.

Guidance continues to hint at another system approaching the area by
late week and into next weekend, though solutions diverge greatly
with respect to both track and strength. Confidence still remains
low with respect to both timing and precipitation type, though
ensemble guidance continues to hint at least some measurable
precipitation. Recent ensemble solutions continue to paint broad
probabilities of >0.1" as high as 50-70%, with the greatest
probabilities north of I-80. Until synoptic details become more
clear, confidence in exactly what form the precipitation fall in
will remain very low. That said, strong northwest winds can be
expected on the backside of this system, with probabilities of
>45mph wind gusts continuing to creep upwards across much of western
and north central Nebraska. Any impacts remain uncertain for now,
though trends will continue to be monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low stratus persists for western and southwest Nebraska
terminals, with MVFR and IFR CIGs continuing into tomorrow
afternoon. This low stratus will expand eastward overnight,
leading to an expansion in lowered CIGs for terminals east of
HWY 83. Patchy fog is also possible for western and southwest
Nebraska terminals tomorrow morning, leading to periods of MVFR
visibilities.

Winds remain gusty from the southeast today and tonight, with
gusts of 25 to 35kts continuing for all terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion