094
FXUS63 KLBF 312315
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances increase Wednesday into Thursday night.

- Snowfall accumulation is looking less as temperatures aloft
  appear they will be warmer.

- Increasing confidence of precipitation Friday into Saturday
  morning. Low confidence in precipitation amounts.

- Elevated fire weather concerns return Sunday into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A shortwave will be progressing through the Intermountain West
through the day Wednesday. Mid-level warm air advection will
increase across the Central Plains downstream of this wave through
the day. Scattered showers could be ongoing within this warm air
regime across portions of northwest Nebraska early Wednesday
morning. This activity will tend to increase through the day as it
develops/spreads eastward and southeastward. Highest precip.
potential during the day Tuesday will be across the Sandhills and
northern Nebraska. The system will quickly move eastward and sharpen
as it emerges into the Plains Wednesday night. The system will also
take on somewhat of a negative tilt and has trended a little farther
southward. All this is good news regarding the potential for
precipitation across western and north central Nebraska. Operational
models (ECMWF/GFS) have come into agreement that a closed
circulation at H7 should track eastward near the NE/KS border into
eastern Nebraska Wednesday night. A deformation axis of
precipitation will reside to the north of this track. Southwest
Nebraska into the Sandhills, as well as central/north central
Nebraska should be located within the axis. The probability for at
least a quarter of an inch is high, with some areas likely seeing
amounts over 3/4 of an inch by the time the precipitation ends
Thursday.

As far as snow potential, thermal profiles are looking warmer and
snowfall accumulations less. Ensemble and operational models
continue to trend down, and official amounts are now below an inch
across far northern Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The active weather pattern will continue as another system
approaches the region Friday. A western trough will move east and
become a closed low before ejecting across region Friday afternoon
into Friday night. Precipitation chances will increase through the
day Friday as this system moves across the area, especially across
north-central Nebraska.

POPS are currently 30-80% throughout the CWA with the highest
chances across north-central Nebraska. Precipitation amounts do not
appear overly impressive at this time, with the NBM 50th percentile
showing 0.00 to 0.25 inches. The 90th percentile is somewhat more
aggressive, with amounts above 0.50 inches in some areas.
Regardless, the best chance (30-50%) for measurable precipitation
above a quarter of an inch appears to be across north-central
Nebraska, as much of the CWA may remain within the dry slot of this
system. There remains uncertainty with this forecast, as any shifts
in the track could either result in higher or lower precipitation
amounts across the area. Stay tuned for future forecast updates.

The surface low moves off to the east bringing precipitation
chances to an end, and will push a cold front through the area
Friday night, bringing gusty north winds Friday night into
Saturday morning. Highs on Friday and Saturday will range from
the lower 40s north to the upper 50s south, then warm into the
upper 50s to 60s by Sunday and Monday as upper level ridging
builds into the region.

Elevated fire weather concerns will again become an issue as warmer
temperatures return to the region particularly Sunday through early
next week. Any period where low RH and gusty winds overlap will
feature the highest concern for fire weather potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday morning, with borken
mid-level ceilings across the area. Winds will turn to the southeast
overnight into Wednesday morning at 5-15 kts. Winds will gradually
increase through the day, with southeast winds of 10-15 kts and
gusts up to 25 kts possible by Wednesday afternoon. Showers are
expected to develop tomorrow morning, mainly across portions of the
Sandhills and northern Nebraska, before becoming more widespread
across the area through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Buttler/Labenz

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion