025
FXUS63 KLBF 141141
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
541 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chilly and windy conditions are expected today as highs will
struggle to get out of the 40s.
- There is a small chance for light precipitation in far SW
Nebraska late this afternoon and early this evening.
- Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Sunday with readings
in the 50s.
- Mild temperatures continue through mid-week with Wednesday
being the warmest day of the week
- Slight precipitation chances possible on Wednesday
afternoon/night.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
H5 analysis tonight had a highly amplified pattern
across the CONUS. A high amplitude ridge extended from the Texas
Panhandle north into southwestern Manitoba and southeastern
Saskatchewan. This ridge then extended northeast to northern
portions of Quebec. East of the ridge, a broad trough of low
pressure was present across the eastern third of the CONUS. Within
this trough, two closed systems were noted. The first over eastern
Quebec, and the second over western Pennsylvania. Other disturbances
within this trough were noted over Indiana and northern Georgia.
West of the ridge, a broad trough of low pressure extended from just
off the coast of British Columbia, south southeast into central
California. Within this trough, closed low pressure was noted over
the coast of Washington State with another shortwave noted over
central California. In advance of the trough, another shortwave
trough was present over southeastern Arizona.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
The shortwave over southeastern Arizona (mentioned above), will
track northeast into northeastern New Mexico today. At the same
time, surface high pressure, will transition across Iowa and a
surface trough of low pressure will deepen along the front
ranges of Wyoming and Colorado. With a decent pressure gradient
expected today across the area, gusty southerly winds are
expected. The latest NBM ensemble has 60 to 80% chance for wind
gusts reaching 40 MPH Saturday afternoon across the central and
western Sandhills. When this threshold is raised to 45 MPH,
there is a 40 to 60% chance of gusts reaching this threshold.
Cloud cover will increase later this morning from the south as
the shortwave lifts into eastern New Mexico. This cloud cover,
along with an entrenched cold air mass (H8 5 temps of 1-3C) will
lead to highs in the middle 40s today. Some readings may touch
50 over northern portions of the forecast area where the onset
of cloud cover will hold off until this afternoon. As was the
case yesterday, the deterministic, GFS and RRFS soln tonight
develops some very light precipitation across far SW portions of
the forecast area late this afternoon into the early evening
hours. The latest NBM, barely works in a slight chance pop for
far southern Chase County this evening. Based on the
deterministic solns, decided to extend pops further north into
the remainder of Chase and portions of Perkins County. Decided
to keep pops at around 20 percent as the QPF forecast is only a
couple of hundredths. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Saturday
night into Sunday for most areas. Some limited clearing may
occur in the northwest Sunday afternoon as drier air and a shift
in wind direction to the west and southwest, ushers in warmer
air. Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs
on Sunday will range from around 50 along and south of a line
from Ogallala to Broken Bow, with lower to middle 50s generally
north of this line.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
n upper level low to the south will continue to track eastward as a
upper level ridge builds in from the west with strong southerly
winds keeping temperatures in the 50s. SFC winds will be the
strongest across northern Nebraska into north central Nebraska
Monday and Tuesday with winds around 15 to 20 mph and gust up to 35
mph. On Wednesday a cold front will move into the area, ahead of the
front compressional heating will warm temperatures into the upper
50s to low 60s across southwest Nebraska into north central
Nebraska, making Wednesday the warmest day of the week. There will
be a slight chance of scattered precipitation chances Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures cool into the low 50s for
Thursday.
Attention then turns to a system moving in to end the week Friday
and Saturday. As the upper level low moves onshore into the western
CONUS Friday and moves eastward increasing precipitation chances
Friday. Will need to continue to monitor the system as models
at this time are suggesting the system could potentially move
across the Central CONUS as a fairly strong closed low system,
however as this is still pretty far out in the forecast and the
system is still well offshore, the track and strength could
still change as we approach the end of next week. &&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
There will be a brief period of some localized LLWS, generally
in the North Platte River valley, including KLBF terminal. Low
Level winds will be out of the south around 40 kts. At the SFC
winds will remain breezy across western and north central
Nebraska around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts out of the
south to southeast through the remainder of the forecast period.
Low clouds will move in late morning through the remainder of
the forecast, with periods of MVFR conditions possible.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026
Winds will remain breezy across western and north central
Nebraska today into this evening with winds sustained around 10
to 15 kts and gusts up to 30 kts out of the south to southeast
through the remainder of the forecast period. Low clouds will
move in late morning through the remainder of the forecast, with
periods of MVFR conditions possible this afternoon through
evening.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion