157
FXUS63 KLBF 130651
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
151 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with warmest
  temperatures late week into the weekend. Highs in the upper
  90s to lower 100s are possible by the end of the week.

- In addition to hot and dry conditions, gusty winds may usher
  in a return of elevated to near critical fire weather
  concerns.

- Uncertainty builds into the forecast Sunday into early next
  week, as guidance struggles with the upper air pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Today and tonight, the upper ridge center will strengthen to near
6000 meters at 500mb over southern MN by late afternoon. Despite
such as strong upper ridge to our north, highs will range from 3 to
8 degrees above normal, except near 10 degrees above normal far
northwest. Forecast highs will be in the low 90s, with mid 90s
northern NE, with highs again in the upper 90s far northwest
Sandhills. H85 temperature anomalies remain slightly below normal
across Kansas and Missouri today, so when advecting northwestward
into Nebraska, this is attributing to highs not being as hot as
across South Dakota. Southerly winds mainly 10 to 20 mph, except 15
to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph western Sandhills. Skies will again
be sunny. Lows tonight mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper ridge axis will extend from
Wyoming through South Dakota and northern Illinois. Highs across
western NE will be nearly the same on Tuesday, in the low 90s, with
mid 90s northern NE. Southerly winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph
across the entire forecast area with gusts to 30 mph portions of the
western Sandhills. Skies will again be sunny. Lows Tuesday night mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Little change in the long term forecast, as upper level ridging
persists mid week into the weekend, bringing above average
temperatures and a dry weather pattern. TEmperatures still look to
be hottest late ween into the weekend, with highs in the upper 90s
to lower 100s across the region. With the strength of the upper
level ridge and high pressure at the surface, no precipitation is
expected this week, either.

As with previous forecasts, upper level flow will support the
warmest temperatures aloft to flow over the Intermountain West into
the Dakotas, mostly remaining just to the west and north of the
region. However, portions of the forecast region, most notably
northern Nebraska will be on the fringes of this warm core aloft,
supporting warmer surface temperatures. Wednesday looks to remain
very similar to Tuesday, with highs mostly in the 90s across the
region, with upper 90s across northern Nebraska. In fact, highs on
Wednesday remain right around the 75th percentile across the region
compared to local climatology, so while warmer than usual, not
unheard of for mid July. By late week, warmer temperatures aloft
will support hotter conditions across most of the region.

As just mentioned above, warmer temperatures aloft are expected
Thursday into the weekend, supporting hotter conditions across most
of the region. In fact, Thursday through the weekend, forecast highs
climb up to around the 90th percentile compared to local
climatology, but remain well below record highs. Ensemble guidance
still shows a sizable disagreement, with the European ensembles
remaining much cooler than the GEFS. While the European has shown
some slight warming trends, the ensembles still show a lower
probability of most of the region breaking into the 90s, which seems
highly unlikely given recent conditions, the strength of the ridge,
and the fact that our usual highs are in the lower 90s for mid July.
So, still favoring the GEFS solutions for temperatures, which
highlight most of the area in a greater than 80 percent chance of
being in the 90s late week into the weekend. In line with GEFS
guidance, the best chances for anywhere in the forecast region to
break 100 remains portions of northern into north central Nebraska,
where warmer temperatures aloft are expected. Aiding the potential
to break 100, overnight lows late week, especially east of Highway
83, may only cool into the lower 70s. With the warmer overnight lows
and hotter conditions throughout the day, still believe that the
best chances of seeing any heat headlines this week would favor late
week into the weekend and mostly be located across north central
Nebraska.

Along with above average temperatures and no precipitation, strong
mixing is expected each day across the region, allowing stronger
upper level winds to mix to the surface. Wednesday appears to have
greatest potential for southerly gusts of 40 to 45 mph, especially
across the Sandhills and Panhandle. However, Thursday and Friday
also show potential for some gusty conditions, with peak gusts
currently expected around 30 to 35 mph, with the strongest gusts
remaining across the Sandhills into the Panhandle. However, still
believe more widespread gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be possible each
afternoon, remaining through the weekend. As stronger wind gusts are
expected each day on top of already hot and dry conditions, there
will be growing fire weather concerns this week, with greatest
concern across the Sandhills into the Panhandle. While confidence in
reaching critical criteria is low, confidence is medium-high to high
in reaching elevated to near critical conditions, especially given
the expected wind gusts.

The forecast becomes a little more uncertain Sunday into early next
week, as guidance brings differing solutions on how the upper level
pattern evolves with a trough moving across the northern Plains.
While the GFS solution favors a strengthening ridge, the ECMWF
solution favors a ridge breakdown for a day or two, before
reamplifying. This is also well reflected in cluster analysis, as
solutions weighted towards the GEFS and Canadian ensembles keep the
ridge in place, while the European weighted solutions break the
ridge down. This throws some uncertainty in the weather pattern
Sunday into early next week, as the pattern could either favor
remaining warm and dry or potentially cool for a day or two. Will
need to continue to monitor the forecast trends this week to see if
guidance comes into a better consensus on how to handle this trough
and ridge pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. Southerly to
southeasterly winds persist overnight, becoming gusty by the
morning. Overnight, a low level jet is expected to develop across
western Nebraska tracking into the Sandhills and into the KVTN
terminal. This will create some LLWS concerns overnight, mainly
along and west of an Ogallala to Valentine line. Outside of the main
low level jet, there is potential for winds of 25 to 30 knots around
2,000 ft AGL throughout the night. As LLWS concerns wind down in the
morning, gusty winds will be the main concern through the morning
and afternoon. As an inversion develops this evening, expect gusts
to subside, with steady southerly to southeasterly winds again.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion