946
FXUS63 KLBF 301734
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate to high confidence dense fog development through this
morning across north central Nebraska.
- Moderate confidence heavier rainfall mainly south of I-80
through Thursday morning, although, low confidence in
flooding concerns.
- Moderate confidence in colder temperatures on Thursday night,
but frost potential remains low.
- Dry weather is expected Friday into early next week. Mainly
below normal temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday,
with moderating temperatures back to near or even slightly
above normal by early next week. It will be windy at times,
especially Friday and again Monday, when gusty south winds
are forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
In the near-term, the latest observations show visibility dropping
quite significantly across portions of north central Nebraska. With
increased moisture across the region along with calm winds,
expecting fog to continue to develop through the overnight.
Visibilities down to a quarter of a mile will be possible at times
especially in low lying areas and along river valleys. Be prepared
for rapidly changing conditions if traveling Wednesday morning
before fog diminishes by late morning.
Active weather will then return to the region as remnant moisture
from tropical system Polo arrives in the central Plains. Latest
model runs are still inconsistent about how much rainfall actually
makes it into north central. Dry air from the north will push the
majority of the moisture south and east, keeping it out of our area
for the most part. However, while the latest trends were backing off
on heavy rainfall, QPF has pushed back north in the most recent
runs. While not excessive rainfall criteria, it still highlights the
uncertainty in the heaviest rainfall trends. Latest probability
trends also show getting over a half inch of rain to be near 70
percent for the southern three counties (Chase, Hayes, Frontier).
Therefore, confidence is moderate to high that QPF values over 1
inch is not anticipated and therefore flooding concerns are not
expected at this time due to these lower QPF values. Due to this
slight shift south in the heaviest rainfall, will plan to take out
Custer county from the flood watch, however, due to the uncertainty
in the models, will plan to hold on to remainder of the flood watch.
Changes may be needed in the upcoming day as the event unfolds and
confidence increases in lower QPF amounts.
Scattered showers continue through Wednesday night and into Thursday
morning especially across areas south of I-80. As strong high
pressure builds south back into the area, rain showers will come to
an end Thursday afternoon with quieter conditions continuing through
Thursday night.
For temperatures, across the south, continued rain chances, cloudy
conditions, and increased cold air advection into the region will
keep temperatures in the 60s through Thursday. In the north, breaks
in the clouds as well as some warmer air pushing into northern
Nebraska will allow for highs to rise into the low to mid 70s today
before dropping into the 60s on Thursday. Low temperatures overnight
will drop from the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight to the mid 40s on
Thursday night. This will be the coolest night of the next week and
latest probabilities suggest lows could drop into the upper 30s to
low 40s across some locations. While not expecting any frost
potential, those with sensitive plants or outside concerns may want
to take some precautions.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Upper-level ridging will build across the desert southwest through
the upcoming weekend into early next week. A dry northwest flow
aloft will become established atop our area on the northeast
periphery of the high. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will
be located across the central and northern plains Friday. This will
usher in a cooler, drier Canadian airmass. Temperatures Friday will
average below normal with highs in the 60s. As the high shifts east
of the area Saturday, gusty south winds develop ahead of a weak
approaching shortwave and associated surface low across western
South Dakota. As the surface low shifts east across South Dakota
Saturday afternoon and evening, a cold front will switch winds to
the north. Saturday`s highs will moderate into the upper 60s to mid
70s, but then cool back into the 60s Sunday behind the front. No
precipitation is expected with the weak shortwave and cold front, as
the atmosphere will be quite dry.
Early next week, gusty south winds return Monday into Tuesday.
Temperatures will moderate back to near or even slightly above
normal By Tuesday, when highs could top 80 degrees across western
into southwest Nebraska.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Low stratus and precipitation will continue to lead to
IFR/locally LIFR CIGs and visibilities across portions of
southwest Nebraska into this evening. This system will slowly
begin to exit into tomorrow, with VFR conditions returning for
southwest Nebraska terminals late tomorrow morning.
Winds remain east-northeast through tonight, at 5 to 10kts.
Winds then strengthen from the north tomorrow, with gusts of 20
to 30kts expected tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion