503
FXUS63 KLBF 040528
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe potential both tonight and the 4th of July remains
  possible. Not likely to be widespread but at scattered severe
  storms are expected.

- Drier weather is expected Sunday into the first of next week
  as a ridge of high pressure expands northward into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Several potential scenarios will be possible late this afternoon
into this evening. Several boundaries have been left in the
wake of last night`s MCS. One analyzed across north central
Nebraska, with another located across central into southwest
Nebraska, and yet one more located across northwest Nebraska.
Latest thinking is that storm initiation is close across
northwest Nebraska along that mentioned boundary. Latest runs
of the WoFS initiate convection between 3-4pm. CAPE/shear would
support a possible supercell evolving out of this development.
The last several runs of the HRRR then loosely organizes this
activity as it moves into a better CAPE environment/theta-e
advection across the Sandhills early this evening. Appears that
strong potentially damaging winds will be the main concern, but
a few instances of hail will be possible.

Late tonight, toward sunrise Saturday morning. A separate
secondary are of convection should form within the left exit
region of the upper jet. This should mostly be across northeast
Colorado into northwest Kansas and far southwest Nebraska.

Saturday;s convective scenario will largely be dependent on how
this afternoon and tonight evolves. At this time, appears that
western Nebraska has the higher potential of seeing some
stronger late afternoon and evening convection. Moist upslope
flow and decent boundary layer recovery will occur across this
area. Again, could see a few supercells evolve with a potential
upscale damaging wind potential evolving into parts of southwest
Nebraska into northwest Kansas during the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Upper-level ridging starts to expand northward Sunday into the
first of next week. This will cause the upper flow to decrease
considerably with overall shear diminishing. As the upper-
levels warm the threat for convection will decrease, and any
convection that does manage to develop would likely remain non-
severe as overall shear decreases. Otherwise with the upper-
level ridging building in temperatures will remain seasonably
warm for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the effective TAF
period across western and north central Nebraska. Showers and
thunderstorms continue to exit the region overnight, leaving mostly
light and variable winds in their wake. A cold front begins to track
across the region in the afternoon, bringing northeasterly winds
throughout the day. However, winds are expected to remain light
throughout the day, mostly under 10 knots. By the afternoon,
additional showers and thunderstorms may develop along the front,
bringing potential impacts across southwest Nebraska. However, at
this time, ceilings are expected to remain VFR, with storms
potentially bringing low end VFR to brief MVFR conditions.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion