230
FXUS63 KLBF 160713
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
213 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions continue through Monday across all of
  western and north central Nebraska.

- Some elevated fire weather concerns but overall concerns will
  remain low due to the generally light winds.

- A pattern shift arrives early next week, bringing a return of
  more seasonal temperatures and better potential for
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

An Upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in firm control
right though Saturday. The actual center will be located across
WY/CO with elongated H5 heights extending eastward across NE/KS from
the center. This will keep flow aloft very weak. Friday looking
quite hot, with highs nearing 100F across portions of north central
NE. A heat advisory could be needed around the O`Neill area that day
as lows Thursday night only cool into the lower 70s with morning
lows Friday night about the same. Saturday is a little up in the air
temperature wise. A very weak back-door cold front is forecast to
drop southwest into the area. This turns the low-level flow to east-
northeast and have seen a slight downward trend in highs due to
this. A few the higher-res models actually parts of central into
north central NE around the 90 degree mark. Will continue to monitor
that trend.

Some elevated fire weather concerns in areas that haven`t received
the rainfall the past few weeks but overall winds remain mostly
light and shouldn`t be a huge concern.

No precipitation is expected through Saturday with the
aforementioned upper-high remaining in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper level ridging persists Saturday night, with a slight decrease
in lows expected. However, these lows still remain in the upper 60s
for most of the region, with several locations still likely to
remain above 70. These overnight lows remain right around the 90th
percentile compared to local climatology, which is quite warm for
mid July.

Heat is expected to continue Sunday and possibly into Monday.
Confidence remains high that Sunday looks to be the warmest day of
this stretch, with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across most
of the region. These highs would be just over the 90th percentile
compared to local climatology, but still remain cooler than record
highs. For reference, record highs on Sunday range from 107 to 112
across the region, and our warmest highs are currently forecast to
be around 101 to 103. Overnight lows also remain quite warm,
generally in the lower to mid 70s across the region, providing
little relief overnight.

Some uncertainty still remains in the potential timing of a pattern
shift early week. Fortunately, model guidance is in consensus on
this pattern shift, just some disagreements in timing. Latest
guidance now suggests a slightly slower pattern, keeping Monday
quite hot. Highs again push into the upper 90s to lower 100s, with
some hints of a weak frontal passage across northwest Nebraska.
However, this slight uncertainty in the frontal timing not only
affects temperatures but also precipitation chances. As timing of
the front remains uncertain, slight chance to chance PoPs return to
the forecast both Sunday and Monday night. However, this looks to be
little precipitation, based on ensemble guidance, which only brings
a 20 to 30 percent chance of exceeding one tenth of an inch.

Tuesday into mid week, though a ridge is still expected over the
western and into the central United States, should see a switch to
northwest flow aloft across western Nebraska. This will help usher
in a pattern shift, which is expected to bring a return of more
seasonal temperatures and even some better chances of precipitation.
Ensemble guidance shows pretty good consensus on at least a 30 to 40
percent chance of rainfall exceeding one tenth of an inch Wednesday
into Thursday, with some variations between ensembles. While
confidence is fairly high on the pattern shift, confidence remains
low on precipitation placement, amounts, and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. Overnight,
stronger winds aloft are expected across western Nebraska, bringing
LLWS concerns across the western Sandhills. However, this core of
stronger winds aloft is expected to remain west of KLBF and KVTN.
Surface winds are expected to remain out of the south and southeast
throughout the TAF period, and though winds may increase during the
afternoon, stronger gusts are not expected. Fair weather cumulus is
likely to develop again across the region again, however, little to
no impact is expected at area terminals.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion