232
FXUS63 KLBF 031939
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
239 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for light rain with a slight (10-20%) chance
thunderstorms over north-central NE late afternoon into evening,
with light snow possible northwest Sandhills tonight.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions southwestern NE
over the weekend.

- Temperatures moderate back to above average into midweek, with
  near critical to critical fire weather concerns returning by
  Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The upper level low will continue to track from north central
Wyoming into south central South Dakota over the course of the day.
A surface low is currently stationed (as of noon today) over
southwestern South Dakota and will make its way across South Dakota
ahead of the upper level low. Later this afternoon, the threat of
precipitation will return across the northern part of the state as
there will be favorable lift wrapping around the southwestern part
of the existing surface low. Precipitation will start out as rain
showers before changing to snow in the evening to overnight hours.
While snow accumulations will be little to none across north-central
NE, the 50th percentile for snow accumulations for the higher
elevations of the Pine Ridge is 1 - 2 inches. This area nicely lines
up for a pocket of -5 C H85 temps, pushing surface temps into the
low to mid 20s. Total QPF remains a couple hundreths to a tenth of
an inch across north-central NE. There is a slight chance (10 - 20%)
of a thunderstorm or two developing over the Sandhills but is not
expected to be strong or long lasting.

The system will quickly exit the region, with dry and gusty
conditions Saturday. Winds are expected to be northwest at 20 - 30
mph with ensemble guidance giving a 70 - 90 percent probability for
wind gusts to exceed 30 mph. Highs in the southwest are expected to
be in the upper 50s to low 60s (near normal) and mid 40s to low 50s
(5 to 10 degrees below normal) in the northeastern areas of our
region. With the possibility of gusty winds, there is some elevated
to near-critical fire weather concerns over southwest NE where
humidity percentages is in the low to mid 20s. Sunday will see a
warmup before cooler air dropping in. Highs are forecasted to be in
the low to upper 60s across much of the region (5 to 10 degrees
above normal). Breezy northwest winds (10 to 15 mph gusting to 20
mph) looks to stay northeast of the area of lowest humidity (mid
teens to low 20s) but has some overlap over central NE where RH
percentages are in the low to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Upper ridging begins to establish across the Intermountain West as
we head into next week, with increasing warm advection leading to
highs moderating back above average into midweek. Light
precipitation is possible (20-40%) late Monday afternoon into
Tuesday morning, as a weak warm front pushes west to east across the
area aloft. At this time, little to no accumulations are expected.

The concern then quickly turns to fire weather, especially on
Tuesday and Wednesday, as highs climb back into the upper 60s to
70s. Though winds look to increase both days across the area,
lingering low level moisture on Tuesday may keep humidity elevated
enough to keep any critical fire weather concerns limited. The more
concerning day looks to be Wednesday, as strengthening downslope
flow establishes by Wednesday afternoon. This will push highs into
the upper 70s and potentially lower 80s across portions of western
and southwest Nebraska. This will lead to an overlap of low
humidity, gusty west winds, and above average temps across much of
the area. Unfortunately, this looks to precede a cold frontal
passage by the late evening to early overnight hours Thursday as
ridge breakdown occurs, with a sharp wind shift expected. As such, a
period of near critical to critical fire concerns is looking
increasingly probable for Wednesday across portions of the area. A
threat for showers and thunderstorms also exists ahead of this cold
front, though enough moisture should be in place to avoid a threat
for dry lightning. Any precipitation remains low confidence, tied to
differences in frontal timing, though trends will need to be
monitored.

Cooler temperatures return and remain in place late week, with
lesser fire weather concerns expected. Some threat for precipitation
may persist into late week as well, though vast differences in model
guidance reduces confidence to very low. NBM probabilities of any
precipitation (>0.01") do increase substantially towards the end of
the week, though these appear too broad in nature for now. The
probability for more substantial moisture (>0.25") peaks at ~30-50%
east of HWY 83 at this time, suggesting some optimism for beneficial
moisture late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR and local IFR conditions are likely to prevail
this afternoon into Saturday morning across northern Nebraska.
Scattered rain and snow showers are also expected across this
area through this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions should
prevail elsewhere with northwest winds of 15-25 kts and gusty
through Saturday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion