511
FXUS63 KLBF 252013
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
tonight, mainly east of a line from Ogallala to Valentine.
There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong
to severe storms. The main threat is gusty winds.
- After a dry Tuesday and Tuesday night, the threat for precipitation
will increase mid week, continuing into the weekend.
Thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall though the location of
storms remains uncertain.
- Expect very warm temperatures for Tuesday, with readings
trending back toward seasonal norms midweek into this weekend.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
H5 analysis this morning had high pressure located off the coast of
the Carolinas. Weak low pressure was noted over northern Texas with
a second short wave trough of low pressure located over southern
California. Broad west to east flow extended from the Pacific NW
east across the northern tier of states to the western Great Lakes.
Low pressure was located over northern Ontario wit a trough
extending southeast toward Lake Ontario. Further west, low pressure
was located over the central coast of British Columbia. At the
surface, weak low pressure was located over southeastern Colorado.
Across Nebraska, a wind shift line extended from roughly Valentine
South to just east of McCook. Westerly winds were present west of
the before mentioned line, while winds were southerly or
southeasterly immediately east of the boundary. Dew points were in
the 50s to the east of the boundary with 30s and 40s west of this
feature. East of the surface boundary winds were gusty over central
and eastern Nebraska with light winds west of highway 83. Skies were
mostly clear this afternoon with some developing alto cumulus over
the sandhills and panhandle. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from
86 degrees at Gordon to 94 degrees at Thedford.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
A weak surface convergence boundary is expected to develop this
afternoon roughly along a line from Bassett to Ogallala. The
latest CAMS including the HRRR, NAM12, WRFARW develop convection
INVOF the convergent boundary after 21z this afternoon.
Temperatures in the lower 90s, along with steep lapse rates from
h850 to h70 will lead to decent development of thunderstorms
along this boundary late this afternoon. As for severe potential
later this afternoon/evening, it appears meager at best.
Forecast ML CAPE along and east of the boundary peaks at 1500 to
3000J/KG late this afternoon so ample convective potential is
evident. However, deep layer shear is fairly weak this afternoon
on the order of around 20 KTS. Gusty winds appear to be the
main severe threat given forecast soundings are indicative of an
inverted V setup initially. With the loss of surface heating
and with deep layer shear being fairly week, am expecting storms
to diminish after sunset. There is one aspect that concerns me
with this activity tonight and that is the possibility of heavy
rain. Weak flow in the mid levels (20 KTS or less at H500) and
forecast PWATS topping out just under an inch (ie. 80th to 90th
%ile) could possibly lead to a heavy rain threat. However,
looking at the current flash flood guidance, the threat for
flash flood warning type rainfall appears minimal. Lows tonight
will range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. The upper level
low (off the British Columbia coast-mentioned in the synopsis
section above), will quickly drop south-southeast into far
northeastern California/NW Nevada by midday on Tuesday.
Downstream of this feature, a surface trough of low pressure
will deepen from southeastern Montana south into the front range
of Colorado. East of this feature, strong southerly winds will
develop by afternoon with the main focus over the western half
of the forecast area. Bufkit forecast soundings for tomorrow
afternoon indicate some gust potential upwards of 30 to 35 MPH
along and west of highway 83. With highs in the mid to upper 80s
Tuesday afternoon, and minimum RH in the 15 to 20 percent
range, we will see some elevated and possibly near critical fire
weather conditions across western portions of the area with the
main area of concern being zone 204. Am expecting dry
conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night thanks to south-
southeasterly mid level flow (zero disturbances) and zero
surface focus or low level convergence expected across the
forecast area. Highs Tuesday will reach into the upper 80s to
around 90 and lows Tuesday night will reach the middle to upper
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Upper level low pressure will remain entrenched across
California and Nevada through Friday. By the end of the work
week a blocking ridge of high pressure develops and extends from
the central plains north into Canada. With the trough off to
the west, southerly winds will continue this week, pushing low
level moisture north into the forecast area. This would normally
be a good setup for persistent rainfall across the region.
However, mid level forcing and dynamics appear weak this week so
organized areas of precipitation are difficult to pin down.
That being said, the extended forecast has an abundance of low
end pops this week with the best chances during the afternoon
and evening hours. As for the threat for severe storms, given
the expected weak dynamics, not seeing a huge threat for severe
storms this week. As for the threat for heavy rain, forecast
PWAT`s toward the middle of the week into the weekend are
running between 1.00 and 1.25 inches which is roughly in the
85th over 100th %ile for this time of year. Given the weak
steering winds and mid level flow, if and where convection does
decide to take off, there will be a threat for heavy rainfall as
storm motion will be slow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Expect mainly clear skies over the next 24 hours at both
terminals with a few high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Some
alto cumulus will develop later this afternoon, impacting the
KLBF and KVTN terminals with scattered clouds around 10000 FT
AGL. There will be a period from 22z to 02z Tuesday at the KLBF
terminal where broken ceilings around 8000 FT AGL are possible.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible at the KLBF terminal as
well. Since coverage is expected to be isolated at best and
forecast confidence low INVOF the KLBF terminal, will leave out
mention of TSRA`s for now. Additionally, some low level wind
shear is possible overnight at the KLBF terminal from 08z to
12z Tuesday.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion