838
FXUS63 KLBF 240807
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
307 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moderate confidence in isolated to embedded thunderstorms
Friday evening, but high confidence in a low severe potential.
- High confidence in cooler temperatures Saturday along with a
light rain potential throughout the day.
- A system crosses the Plains Sunday into Monday, bringing
widespread accumulating precipitation to western and north
central Nebraska.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
A weak trough will move into western South Dakota and into northwest
Nebraska tonight bringing some light precipitation to the region.
Precipitation will push into northwest Nebraska and into the Pine
Ridge over the next couple of hours. With temperatures still above
freezing, precip will likely start off as all rain and slowly
transition over to a rain/snow mix as temperatures fall below
freezing by sunrise. Some of the higher terrain of the Pine Ridge
could even see all snow along with some light accumulations up to a
half inch. This mixed precipitation potential will continue through
the mid-morning before changing back over to all rain as
temperatures climb into the 40s and 50s. Precipitation will also
begin to push southeast through the day today overspreading the
region by late afternoon. While much of the region has the chance to
see some rainfall, the best potential to see the heaviest QPF will
be mainly east of US-83 and north of Highway 2 where a quarter to
half inch (0.25 - 0.50) could be observed.
There is also some concern for some convection late this afternoon
and into the evening. Some modest instability will exist across
portions of southwest and north central Nebraska with CAPE values up
to 500 J/kg and lapse rates near 7 C/km by early evening. While not
expecting severe storms, some thunderstorms could produce some brief
gusty winds up to 50 mph and some small hail. The latest hi-res
model runs indicate some of these stronger storms as far south as I-
80, but the current thinking is that the majority of the storms will
remain across the central Sandhills and into north central Nebraska.
Looking at probabilistic guidance, there is about a 25 percent for
thunder across the Sandhills. The window for these stronger, more
organized convection will be limited, mainly between 6pm and 10pm
CT. After this time, some embedded thunderstorms will still be
possible into the wee hours of Saturday morning, but should
transition over to more stratiform rain showers through sunrise.
Light rain will continue into the day on Saturday, but should remain
fairly scattered in nature and rainfall totals during the day on
Saturday will remain less than a tenth of an inch. Cold air
advection into the region combined with cloudy and rainy conditions
will keep temperatures on the cooler side on Saturday. Highs will
range from the mid 40s in the north to the upper 50s south of I-80.
Temperatures drop into the low 30s in the Pine Ridge and into the
upper 30s on Saturday night. With isolated precipitation continuing
into overnight, some snow may return to the northwest region as
temperatures drop to near and below freezing. The changeover time is
expected to be limited before temperatures rise back above freezing
Sunday morning, so therefore, little to no accumulations are
expected Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
By early Sunday morning, deep southwesterly flow prevails aloft as
an upper low begins to eject east into the Four Corners. Ahead of
this low, ample moisture advection will push PWAT values above the
90th percentile, reaching ~0.75-1.0" by sunrise Sunday morning. As
the quick moving upper low begins to eject into the Plains by Sunday
afternoon, an associated surface low deepens across southeastern
Colorado. This surface low moves east across Kansas by Sunday
evening, keeping the area north of the surface warm front. That
said, this keeps the area in a broad warm advection regime aloft.
This leads to increasing isentropic ascent and this leads to
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms developing by late
Sunday morning. This first round of precipitation looks to be
associated with an initial shortwave ahead of the parent upper low,
which remains upstream over the central Rockies still Sunday
morning. These showers and storms progress northeast across the area
through the afternoon hours. This initial round of
precipitation leads to accumulations as much as 0.25-0.75", with
the greatest accumulations expected in any embedded
thunderstorms. As the parent upper low begins to eject east by
Sunday night, a second round of showers and embedded
thunderstorms is expected to push across the area and persists
into Monday morning. The system finally exits Monday afternoon,
with lesser precipitation coverage by Monday night. In all,
widespread and much needed moisture is expected across much of
the area Sunday into Monday. Total accumulations in excess of 1"
are expected for much of the area, with amounts locally
approaching 1.50" where embedded thunderstorms occur. NBM
probabilities of >1" in 48 hours peak as high as 70-80% for
areas east of HWY 61 Sunday and Monday.
An active pattern looks to persist as we continue into the middle
and late part of next week, as multiple shortwaves cross the area in
persistent west-southwest flow aloft. Confidence wanes with respect
to accumulations and timing of precipitation late week, though
optimism remains that this active pattern will yield additional
beneficial moisture to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Outside of terminals near the Pine Ridge, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail into Friday evening across western and north
central Nebraska. For terminals near the Pine Ridge, low stratus
and MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible through sunrise, improving back
to VFR late Friday morning.
After sunset, low stratus will overspread the area from north to
south, with widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs expected by sunrise
Saturday. Light rain is also possible Friday afternoon into
Friday night, primarily across northern Nebraska.
Light northerly winds early Friday morning briefly become
southerly Friday afternoon, before becoming northerly again
after sunset, at 10 to 15kts.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion