018
FXUS63 KLBF 302044
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
344 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through the night for
  portions of the area.

- Rain and snow chances increase Wednesday through Thursday
  morning.

- Low confidence in precipitation Friday through Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Red Flag Warning has been extended through the night until 7am CDT
Tuesday morning. Scattered high based convection is expected to
develop late this afternoon across the Panhandle ahead of a weak
shortwave. Little if any rainfall is expected with this activity due
to a very dry boundary layer. Isolated dry lightning strikes will
become a concern as the activity moves into western Nebraska and the
Sandhills through this evening. An abrupt wind shift to the north is
expected from north to south as a cold front quickly moves southward
across the area overnight. Any fire start from a lightning strike
could quickly spread as the strong north winds increase. Otherwise,
the winds will be quite strong, with the HRRR runs continuing to
suggest gusts nearing 55 mph from central into southwest Nebraska
from just before sunrise until about mid-morning Tuesday. Winds then
will begin to decrease from late morning into the afternoon as they
become more from the northeast. Still some fire weather concerns
Tuesday, but with the humidity a bit higher, and the cooler
temperatures, critical conditions are not expected.

The next concern will be the potential for precipitation, including
wet snow as we head into Wednesday through Thursday morning. A
strong shortwave will be moving across the Rockies Wednesday. Large
scale ascent and WAA aloft will increase through the day Wednesday.
Showery precipitation will likely increase through the as a result.
The system will try and take more of a negative tilt as it closes
off at H7 across the region. This would increase the likelihood for
at least some precipitation. Probability for 1/10 of an inch liquid
is high; >80% for areas along and east of Highway 83. Even
increasing that to 1/4 of an inch is still >70%. As far as snowfall,
decent probability of 2" or more of wet snow across northern
Nebraska. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A longwave upper trough from the Pacific Northwest will track
through the central plains Friday morning through late Saturday
evening. The result of this upper low moving through the region is a
chance (30 - 50%) of precipitation during this timeframe. Current
ensemble guidance has the 50th percentile at a tenth of an inch,
while possible high end amounts (90th percentile) reaching a half an
inch of precipitation. There is some uncertainty on whether this
precipitation will fall completely as rain or snow. LREF guidance
has a 30 - 50% probabilitiy of quarter of an inch of snow or greater
with the highest end being 2 - 4 inches (10% chance) for north-
central NE. Confidence remains low at this time because of
uncertainty of the track and timing of the upper low.

High temperatures are expected to be 5 - 10 degrees below normal in
northern Ne to near normal further south through the early weekend.
As zonal flow starts to reestablish across the region, Sunday and
Monday highs are expected to warm up, being slightly warmer than
normal. With these slightly warmer temperatures, there will be some
elevated to near critical fire weather concerns once again. Highest
concerns will be regions that are overlayed where humidities are in
the upper teens to low 20s across western NE, and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Tuesday morning. A cold frontal passage
will be the big story, with winds shifting to the north tonight.
Gusts over 40 kts will be possible into at least the first half
of the day Tuesday. Otherwise broken mid and high level
cloudiness will dominate.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ204-
206-208-210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion