513
FXUS63 KLBF 020720
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
220 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
  evening across the region, with the greatest risk across
  northern Nebraska. The initial threat will be for large hail,
  with a growing wind threat throughout the night.

- A similar severe weather set up returns on Friday, with strong
  to severe thunderstorms expected late Friday afternoon and
  evening. The initial threat will be for large hail, with
  another threat for damaging wind gusts as the night
  progresses.

- A brief lull in thunderstorms is expected early week, before a
  return of thunderstorm chances middle next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Thunderstorms across north central into northeast Colorado are
expected to track to the north-northeast overnight, tracking into
the Panhandle late overnight. As showers and thunderstorms continue
to weaken, CAM guidance continues to suggest strong downdraft winds
with these decaying showers, potentially bringing strong to severe
wind gusts late night into the pre dawn hours.

As for today, an upper level trough remains to the west, with a
ridge of high pressure remaining across the southeastern United
States. Surface low pressure is expected to remain across South
Dakota, with a surface boundary tracking across the Nebraska
Panhandle. Ample moisture remains across the region, with afternoon
dewpoints expected to remain in the 60s and possible 70s. Clear
skies in the afternoon will support surface heating with highs
pushing into the low 90s across the region. With the warm, moist air
in place, CAM guidance suggests around 4,000 J/kg surface based CAPE
to develop across most of the region tomorrow afternoon. Upper level
support remains strong, with the mid and upper level jets supporting
around 40 knots deep layer shear. This combination is expected to
support isolated severe convection late afternoon into the evening,
mainly along the frontal boundary. With the surface low remaining
further north, expecting the greater severe threat to remain mostly
across northern Nebraska into South Dakota, where a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) is in effect. Although the north appears the most
likely area for severe weather, given the environment, the entire
region is under at least a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5), with some
question for coverage of severe storms. The main risks remain large
hail, especially in discrete cells, with a growing threat for
damaging wind gusts as storms grow more linear through the night.

A very similar pattern emerges on Friday. A surface low once again
sets up across south Dakota, pushing a surface boundary across the
region. Once again dewpoints climb into the 60s, with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Guidance suggests potential for greater than
3,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE, and upper level support remains,
with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear. Again, this environment
will support initial supercell development, especially along frontal
boundary, with potential upscale growth as the evening progresses.
The greatest severe risk again remains across South Dakota and
northern Nebraska, where a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is already in
place. However, much like today, the ambient environment will
support at least a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across most of the
region. The main risks remain large hail, especially with initial
supercells, morphing into another damaging wind threat as storms
grow into a linear system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Upper ridging begins to migrate westward by this weekend and early
next week, and this finally leads to weaker winds aloft across
portions of the Plains. It also appears that it will bring a brief
lull in thunderstorm chances into early next week. By midweek
however, guidance suggests weak upper troughing may begin to slowly
move east across the central Plains. Should this occur, a return of
thunderstorm chances to the area would be expected. That said, upper
level winds still look somewhat meager aloft, and this casts doubt
on any severe threat. However, with ample moisture and
instability in place, trends will continue to be monitored
closely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Thursday night across western and north central
Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms are possible both early
Thursday morning and again Thursday evening, with brief MVFR
CIGs and visibilities possible. Confidence in any impacts to
KLBF and KVTN preclude any TS inclusion at this time.

Winds remain light and variable through Thursday morning, at
5kts or less. Winds then become southerly Thursday afternoon, at
10 to 15kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion