113
FXUS63 KLBF 200452
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1052 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions will continue as well above normal
  temperatures and gusty west winds persist through early
  Friday evening.

- Light wintry precipitation, largely in the form of snow, may accompany
  a cold front arriving tonight but little to no accumulations
  are expected with the remainder of the forecast dry.

- Following a cooler but still mild day Saturday, temperatures quickly
  return to well above normal values with record highs and near
  record highs forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

This afternoon, satellite analysis depicts high level clouds
streaming across the central and northern Rockies onto the High
Plains. This was coincident with strong mid-level flow on the
backside of stronger troughing across the Northeast. The plume of
moisture aloft was responsible increased cloud cover. Even with the
cloud cover limiting insolation, zonal mid-level flow was promoting
strong downsloping flow which boosted afternoon highs to record
levels. As of 2045z (245pm CST), temperatures ranged from the low
50s in far north central Nebraska to middle/upper 60s and even
a 70F report here and there over the Sandhills and southwest
Nebraska. North Platte Regional Airport has already broken a
calendar day high temperature record (62F set in 2023/1979) with
Valentine Miller Field within 2F of their respective record.
Strong h7 flow was topping the mountains and moving down terrain
into western Nebraska. This has led to a few gusts exceeding 40
mph and even fewer closer to 55-60 mph in the Nebraska
Panhandle. The combination of the warmth and windy conditions
will allow ongoing near-critical to critical fire weather
conditions to persist through early this evening.

For tonight, westerly winds will linger into the evening but should
diminish gradually to less than 25 mph by mid-evening. Even with
loss of daytime heating, expect temperatures to fall fairly slow at
first as westerly winds maintain some low-level mixing. This will
allow for the evening to be fairly pleasant for December standards
with temperatures holding in the middle 40s to low 50s in higher
areas outside valleys. While this will keep humidity from recovering
too quickly, do expect a quick arrival of 30%+ across the area. This
played a large role in deciding again extending the ongoing Red Flag
Warning headlines. Consideration was given to extend through
Midnight CST or later to account for the arrival of a frontal
boundary from the north but opted against this given marginal
conditions preceding this. As mentioned, a front associated with a
northern stream disturbance will arrive late tonight. This should
flip winds to the north quickly with a slight increase in magnitudes
during the overnight. Even with the stronger kinematics, increasing
moisture from the invading airmass should support good humidity
recovery and limit fire weather concerns quickly thereafter. Lows
will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Though moisture will be
marginal, forecast soundings depict low-level saturation across our
northwest and so have maintained and even expanding PoPs (20-30%)
while introducing light icing in addition to snow. Soundings depict
a lack of ice nuclei for a brief period and given low-level
saturation, believe -FZDZ/fog will be possible. Even in worst case
scenario, only isolated slick spots are possible and snow amounts
should remain less than a half inch before activity ends closer to
daybreak Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Overall a dry and very warm stretch of weather is expected heading
into the Christmas holiday. Zonal flow is replaced by upper-riding
across the Gulf Coast with amplified southwesterly flow across the
Desert Southwest pointed to the central and northern High Plains.
Ridge axis settles into the Great Plains around the middle of the
week which will coincide with the warmest day of the forecast before
increased troughing arrives onto the West Coast and allows for a
modest ridge breakdown as a northern stream disturbance tracks west
to east across southern Canada. All this to say, a relatively cooler
day is expected Saturday before temperatures rebound considerably.
As of now, forecast highs for Christmas Eve (Wed) and Christmas Day
(Thu) are anticipated to break and threaten record values each day
respectively. At the same time, scant low-level moisture
availability with lack of greater forcing should allow the forecast
to remain dry. Extended ensemble guidance, notably the EPS/GEFS
solutions, paint only 10% or less probabilities for seeing >
0.01" any single day beyond Thursday through the weekend. Based
on this, thinking is that post-holiday travel should largely be
unhampered across most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Low-level wind shear will continue late this evening as
westerly winds increase quickly just off the surface. Otherwise
a cold front and wind shift to the north will bring an end to
the wind shear concerns around midnight or shortly after. VFR
conditions should prevail all areas through Saturday. Surface
wind from the west or southwest this evening will switch to the
north overnight at 15-25 kts as the cold front passes. Winds
will decrease through the day Saturday and become south by
Saturday evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion