258
FXUS63 KLBF 091735
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
in forecast zone 204 and a red flag warning is in effect.
Additional fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday,
Thursday and Friday.
- There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly
east of the panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds are the
main severe threats.
- Cooler temperatures arrive this weekend with periodic chances
for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
A volatile convective setup
for severe thunderstorms looks to be in the cards later this
afternoon and tonight. In the wake of exiting convection overnight,
a surface trough of low pressure will deepen off to the west of the
forecast area. This will lead to increasing southerly winds today
across the area. Abundant low level moisture exists off to the south
of the forecast area over Kansas. This airmass will move north
unimpeded today, allowing dew points to reach well into the 60s east
of the Nebraska Panhandle. By afternoon, the dryline will sharpen
over the panhandle. At the same time, mid level forcing will lift
northeast from the central and northern Rockies onto the central and
northern plains. Thunderstorms are expected INVOF the dryline later
this afternoon mid to late afternoon. Activity will quickly
intensify as it tracks east of the panhandle into very rich low
level moisture, SB CAPES of 4000+J/kg and very steep mid and low
level lapse rates. Deep layer shear this afternoon ranges from 35 to
45 KTS which will be sufficient to support supercell thunderstorms.
Given the degree of DCAPE this evening, thoughts are initially a
large hail threat...IE. straight hodographs...transitioning to a
more linear mode of convection with strong winds this evening.
Precipitation will push east of the forecast area overnight. On
Wednesday, surface low pressure will be forced east into the eastern
Dakotas, forcing a surface trough through the forecast area. This
will lead to westerly and northwesterly winds Wednesday. Much drier
air will be forced east of the panhandle through most of the
forecast area Wednesday, leading to no threat for precipitation. The
drier air will combine with afternoon highs in the middle 80s to
lower 90s, leading to low minimum relative humidity Wednesday
afternoon and fire weather concerns. This is highlighted below in
the fire section. Later Wednesday evening, mid level warm air
advection will spread across the forecast area Wednesday night along
with a cold frontal passage, leading to a threat for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. ATTM, no severe storms are
anticipated with this activity Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
Behind the front Thursday, highs will only reach into the 70s.
Winds will turn back around to the south Friday, allowing much
warmer air to push into the region. Moisture return will be
lacking this weekend with the GFS and NBM solns having surface
dew points in the 40s to lower 50s. The EC soln pushes some
lower 60 dew points into southern Nebraska Saturday with a warm
frontal boundary present over southern Nebraska. This would
favor an increasing threat for precipitation Saturday into
Sunday which is depicted in the latest NBM forecast. As for
temperatures this weekend, the forecast are comes under the
influence of an upper level low over the northern Great lakes
and Ontario. This leads to cooler temperatures extending into
next week with highs Sunday and monday in the 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout most of today and
tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain
gusty out of the south to southeast this afternoon and evening. By
late afternoon and evening, strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western Nebraska tracking east across the
region. These storms are likely to produce very gusty and erratic
winds, large hail, and potentially tornadoes. These storms may also
bring brief, localized MVFR to IFR ceilings. Have covered this with
a TEMPO group, as confidence in timing of peak severe concerns is
around medium confidence. As storms track out, expect shifting winds
from the northwest as a cold front passes. While wind gusts diminish
overnight, gusty conditions are again expected to develop by the
morning hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026
A dryline will set up across the panhandle this afternoon.
Along and west of this feature, a combination of very warm
temperatures and dry air will lead to minimum RH of 10 to 20
percent, generally west of highway 61. Southerly winds will
increase later this morning, with gust potential approaching 35
to 40 MPH per the latest NAM Bufkit soundings. East of the
dryline, southerly wind speeds will be lower and abundant low
level moisture will alleviate fire weather concerns. Wednesday
will feature breezy westerly and northwesterly winds with low
afternoon relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent across the area.
The combination of gusty westerly and northwesterly winds may
lead to critical fire weather conditions in western areas where
fuels are receptive to fire spread. Elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday and Friday over
western portions of the forecast area. Minimum relative
humidity with range from 15 to 20 percent in zone 204 with wind
gust potential to 35 MPH on Thursday and 30 MPH on Friday. Fire
weather conditions will improve on Saturday and Sunday with
cooler highs expected across the area.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion