257
FXUS63 KLBF 202028
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
328 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread thunderstorms are expected across across western
  to north central Nebraska through Saturday evening. A few
  storms could be severe, with large to very large hail, severe
  winds (some 75+ mph), locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or
  two could be possible.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. A
few storms could be severe with large hail and a brief tornado or
two being the primary concerns.

- Near-daily thunderstorm chances continue into the week but
  severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A warm front has been nudging in from southwest Nebraska, promoting
easterly flow and scattered thunderstorm throughout the morning.
Later on in the day, a shortwave trough is trekking eastward across
the Utah/Idaho border, at the same time, southeasterly low level
winds are feeding warm, moist air into the area. As low level clouds
and fog continue to burn off through the late afternoon, the region
will be primed for the development of widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms late afternoon into the early evening. The environment
is conducive for a persistent threat for clusters of severe storms.
Ensembles have a swathe of MUCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg along
with sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear of 50 - 60 kts blanketing western
and north central Nebraska which would be a conducive environment
for the potential of large hail. Models have been a little
disagreeable for how far north storms will develop, but show
moderate to high agreement for storms developing along and south of
I-80, where clustering of storms will move across and become more
upscale. Confidence remains lower on how organized storms could be
further north where some models have it being widespread where
others are nonexistent. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out
especially over far southwest Nebraska where low clouds have
already started to clear out. Additionally, a threat of
localized flooding is developing with PWAT values remaining high
and a growing number of models suggesting a swath of 2 - 4" of
QPF across central Nebraska through tonight, a flood advisory
has been issued for Custer county to highlight this concern.

Transitioning to Sunday, strong to severe thunderstorms remain
likely across western and into north central Nebraska. Storms look
to start out discrete, supercellular in nature. 30 - 40 kts
bulk shear combined with ample instability will make the
environment conducive for storms having large to very large
hail. A tornado or two also remains a possibility, especially
when the low level jet strengthens during the early evening
through the overnight hours. This is all dependent of the
progression and location of the frontal boundary so this will
continue to be monitored closely for any changes.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Active weather continues to be the tune for much of the week with
near-daily thunderstorm chances. Numerous small shortwaves move
through Nebraska until an upper level trough moves into the early
Friday. As such, while severe weather potential remains uncertain at
this time, confidence is increasing that it could be a rainy week
regardless. Confidence is moderate to high that localized
flooding will be a growing concern for portions of central
Nebraska. With soils already being likely saturated from the
weekend rains and rain rates possibly being 0.5 to 1 inch per
hour, flooding over roadways, low lying areas, and small streams
will be a potential threat to keep an eye out to monitor for
over the next forecast packages. Other than thunderstorm and
flooding concerns, the week looks to remain mild with highs
remaining in the mid 70s until next weekend where near normal
highs return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Low stratus will stick around across much of the Sandhills into
southwest Nebraska through the afternoon hours with LIFR
conditions possible, including KLBF terminal. Scattered
thunderstorms continue to develop across the northern Sandhills
into north central Nebraska with thunderstorms, coverage is
expected to become more widespread this evening with impacts at
both KVTN and KLBF terminals possible, with brief periods of
lower visibility and gusty, erratic winds. Winds will be out of
the east southeast around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 kts
through this afternoon. Winds will diminish to around 5 to 10
kts out of the southeast this evening into the overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning
for NEZ038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion