606
FXUS63 KLBF 122010
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
210 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog is possible tonight into early Friday morning for
  areas along and west of Highway 83. Visibility reductions less
  than half a mile are possible.

- Cooler temperatures are expected to last through the weekend,
  with highs dropping into the 40s. Low end chances for light
  precipitation arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning across
  southwest Nebraska.

- Seasonal to above average temperatures return next week.
  Chances for precipitation increase by the middle of the week,
  though some uncertainty remains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A surface high over central Manitoba continues to sink south across
the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, continuing our
pattern of dry weather. Cool air continues to pour into the region
courtesy of a backdoor cold front slowly tracking through the
region. Along this front, still seeing a localized band of stratus
and even some patchy fog which is expected to remain along the
frontal boundary. Throughout the evening, expecting this front will
continue to track slowly to the west and southwest, eventually
clearing most of the region. With this in mind, did make a slight
adjustment to overnight lows as cold air advection continues. All in
all, this only resulted in lows around 1 to 2 degrees cooler,
however, expect most of the region to reach below the freezing mark
with low 20s across north central Nebraska.

Overnight, expect another round of patchy fog development,
especially for areas along and west of Highway 83. Relatively humid
conditions are expected tonight which combined with the light
surface winds should support fog development. Latest probabilistic
guidance shows a nearly 70 percent chance for visibility to drop to
less than half a mile at times. This is in line with the 12Z run of
the HRRR, which brings fairly widespread visibility reductions under
a quarter mile. Will continue to keep a very close eye on this as we
track into the evening hours to determine whether a Dense Fog
Advisory will be needed or not. Regardless, drivers should be
prepared for potentially foggy conditions and reduced visibility
overnight into the morning commute hours.

As the surface high continues to sink south across the northern
Plains, expect to see a tightening of the surface pressure gradient
across the region. This will lead to some gusty southerly winds
across the region tomorrow, especially across the Sandhills into the
Panhandle, with peak gusts around 30 mph. Winds are expected to
remain gusty through the evening, which will give overnight lows a
bit of a bite. While lows are expected to drop into the 20s across
the region, wind chills in the teens are expected across most of the
region heading into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

The upper level pattern gets a bit complicated as we head into the
weekend. An upper level low slowly tracks across the Great Lakes
with another trough tracking across the West Coast. This trough
begins to undergo a split flow regime, with a shortwave tracking
across the southern Plains while another shortwave clips north into
the Intermountain West. Latest guidance tracks the southern
shortwave even further to the south, now expected to track across
western Texas. The surface low associated with this system is
expected to remain well south, with the bulk of precipitation
falling across Kansas and Oklahoma. However, the very northern edge
of this system may clip the very southwestern portions of Nebraska,
bringing very light precipitation, if any at all. Ensembles continue
to suggest that if precipitation were to fall, it would be a few
hundredths at most. However, with light precipitation possible, may
see a few flurries mixing in, especially Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Again, not expecting anything impactful with this, but
something to keep an eye on. This complex pattern is also expected
to favor cooler temperatures across the region through the weekend,
with highs mostly remaining in the 40s.

Looking ahead to early next week, upper level ridging builds in
quickly for at least Monday, possibly into Tuesday. This will help
usher in warming temperatures, with highs climbing back into the
50s. This steady warming should start with near seasonal highs early
week, in the lower 50s, with temperatures rising above normal (highs
in the mid to upper 50s) by mid week. Throughout the day Tuesday, a
second upper level trough is expected to track across the Desert
Southwest, which brings potential for a surface low to develop by
mid week. This system is currently expected to track across the
region, bringing potential for additional rain showers. Currently,
ensemble guidance brings a 30 to 40 percent chance for one tenth of
an inch across portions of the region, with the European ensembles
showing the higher percentages for this occurring. Will continue to
monitor the forecast in the extended period to see if guidance comes
into better consensus.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A band of stratus and fog remains along a surface boundary across
north central Nebraska causing localized MVFR to IFR conditions.
Forecast soundings suggest that this stratus will mostly remain
across the north through the TAF period. Otherwise, most of the
region will continue to experience VFR conditions through the
afternoon. Overnight, additional fog development is expected mostly
along and west of Highway 83, which could bring visibility under
half a mile at times. Some question remains on how dense fog will
get at KLBF and whether fog will occur at KVTN. Will likely be
further refining on follow on TAFs for this fog potential.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion