019
FXUS63 KLBF 270154
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
854 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog is expected across most of western and north central
Nebraska tonight. fog may be dense at times. Drivers should
prepare for rapidly changing visibility conditions overnight
and into Sunday morning.
- Chances for rain increase Monday and Monday night, with
locally heavy rainfall possible.
- Rain chances are expected to continue through Thursday,
especially across southwest and central Nebraska. By late
week, expecting precipitation chances to wane, with near
seasonal temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Just updated the forecast for dense fog headlines which were
issued over the past 30 minutes. High res models from this
afternoon, along with the 00Z HRRR, indicate good potential for
dense fog with visibilities under 1/2 of a mile overnight. This
is also supported by the NBM ensemble mean visibility forecast
tonight which has widespread visibilities under 1/2 of a mile.
Am anticipating fog development after 07z tonight, persisting to
15z on Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Upper level ridging builds across the region this afternoon, with a
subtle shortwave tracking across the Plains. At the surface, this
tracks a low pressure system across South Dakota, with a surface
trough tracking through the Sandhills. To the east of the trough,
stratus remains across north central Nebraska, keeping temperatures
on the cooler side. West of the trough, clear skies are observed
with temperatures already climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Through this evening, this should keep mostly warm conditions across
the region, with light surface winds. However, later this evening,
ample low level moisture, combined with the light surface winds will
allow for a fairly widespread fog to develop across the region. In
fact, probabilistic guidance suggests a 50 to 60 percent chance of
fog decreasing visibility under one quarter mile at times overnight,
especially around daybreak. Anyone with travel plans, especially
early Sunday morning, should be prepared for rapidly changing
visibility conditions. Will continue to monitor short term trends to
determine whether a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed overnight.
Throughout the day on Sunday, an upper level trough deepens across
the Pacific Coast, and is expected to interact with Hurricane Odalys
as it weakens. As the weakening tropical system interacts with the
trough, expecting that it will enable some of the deeper moisture to
track into the upper level flow, bringing another surge of moisture
into the Plains by Monday evening. Ahead of the main trough, a
shortwave is expected to track from the southwest. This may help
generate a low pressure system off the leeward side of the Rockies
by the afternoon, potentially bringing a chance of showers across
far western and northwestern portions of Nebraska Sunday evening.
Also expecting more cloudy skies across most of the region tomorrow,
which will help bring slightly cooler temperatures. With north
central Nebraska struggling to get out of the stratus, expecting
that highs will struggle to reach the lower 70s. Further west,
expecting another day with highs in the mid to upper 70s, with
potential for the low 80s again remaining across western and
southwest Nebraska, where a little clearing is expected early in the
day.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Monday, Hurricane Polo is expected to take on a more northeasterly
course crossing into the Baja Peninsula. Polo is expected to weaken
as it interacts with the upper level trough, becoming integrated
into the upper level flow. This will help bring yet another plume of
deeper moisture across the Desert Southwest into the Great Plains.
However, guidance continues to struggle with integrating the
hurricane into the jet stream, which continues to add uncertainty
into the location and timing of precipitation early to mid week. For
now, the general consensus in the deterministic models shows
integration sometime on Tuesday. However, a look at the GEFS
spaghetti plots shows some slightly faster solutions. In fact, the
disagreement remains readily visible in spaghetti plots, as there is
a fair amount of divergence in solutions by Tuesday afternoon. All
this to say, forecast confidence remains low to medium beyond
Tuesday, especially in placement and timing of precipitation, as
there is still a fairly wide spread in solutions. However, there are
some forecast trends that are gaining higher confidence, giving
slightly higher confidence in the weather pattern throughout the
week.
For Monday, the upper level trough is expected to track east, which
should continue to increase rain chances Monday afternoon and Monday
night. As previously mentioned, the remnants of Hurricane Odalys is
expected to be integrated into the flow, bringing a strong plume of
tropical moisture into the Great Plains. Ensemble guidance continues
to highlight increasing chances for rainfall Monday night, including
potential for locally heavy rainfall across western and north
central Nebraska. The European ensembles bring this plume of
moisture into the region a slightly more quickly that the GEFS
ensembles, now indicating a 40 to 50 percent chance of exceeding
half an inch of liquid precipitation Monday night into Tuesday
morning. However, while the GEFS only brings a 10 percent chance of
this occurring, it does show a 70 to 80 percent chance of rainfall
occurring. THis is also highlighted by the latest NBM deterministic,
so made no changes to precipitation chances Monday evening into
Tuesday morning.
By Tuesday, as Polo becomes integrated into the jet stream,
expecting a plume of moisture from that system to track into the
Plains as well. This will continue to bring chances for rain,
especially a potential for heavy rainfall. At this time, the greater
chances for heavy rainfall remain to our south and east; however,
there is still some potential for this deeper layer of moisture
across portions of our area, especially across southwest into central
Nebraska. With this push of deeper moisture, ensemble guidance
suggests anywhere from a 20 to 50 percent chance (with the more
progressive European solutions being on the higher end)of total
rainfall exceeding one inch across southwest into central Nebraska
Monday through Thursday afternoon. Again, a lot of the timing
questions remain given the poor integration of Hurricane Polo into
the jet stream, but precipitation chance do remain fairly likely
during this period.
Thursday into Friday, the upper level low is expected to track
across the southern Plains, potentially lifting north across the
region. On the back end of this system, expecting precipitation
chances to wane late week into the weekend. With the upper
level low tracking potentially into the region, expecting some
slightly cooler temperatures to prevail across the region, with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This would not be too
unusual for this time of year, as typical highs to start October
are around 72 degrees across western and north central
Nebraska.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Fog will develop overnight at both terminals and may be dense at
times. The greatest threat for fog is from 07 to 15z at the
KLBF terminal and from 09 to 17z at the KVTN terminal.
Visibilities may reach a quarter mile at times. Ceilings with
the fog will be IFR and LIFR and may reach 200 to 600 FT AGL.
Fog is expected to burn off by midday Sunday with clear to
scattered clouds expected.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM
MDT/ Sunday for NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-057>059-069>071.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Buttler
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion