521
FXUS63 KLBF 052352
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
652 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through the night,
until mid-day Wednesday across portions of western and southwestern
Nebraska.

-Light show showers possible Tuesday night across western Nebraska,
although little to no accumulations are expected.

-Freeze Warning late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for
portions of western and southwest Nebraska.

-Low to moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms
 Thursday and Saturday afternoons into evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Showers and some isolated thunderstorms will persist through the day
and into the overnight hours. An upper level trough is
continuing to dig along eastern Wyoming, intensifying a surface
low over eastern Colorado. As this low remains nearly
stationary, continued rainfall is expected across western and
southwest Nebraska, with showers potentially extending into the
Western Sandhills. Expecting total rainfall amounts in the range
of of 0.5" to 0.75" in southwest Nebraska, along and south of
I-80.

Tonight, temperatures will drop near or just below freezing across
western Nebraska. As a result, some showers could transition to mix
precipitation and snow showers overnight across the Panhandle.
However, given the warmer soil temperatures from days prior, very
little accumulations will settle, especially with warmer
temperatures returning Wednesday.

As Wednesday rolls in, the upper level low tracks through our
region. Showers are still expected to persist until mid-day across
western and southwestern Nebraska. By Wednesday evening, an upper-
level ridge approaches behind the departing trough. During this
transition, cloud cover is expected to clear out of the region
leaving mostly clear skies, with light west winds sustained at 5 -
10 mph, promoting strong radiational cooling. Lows will dip to the
upper 20s (southwest NE) to just above freezing (north-central NE).
Furthermore, NBM probabilities of below freezing lows late Wednesday
into Thursday morning reaches 70 to 90 percent across western and
southwest Nebraska. The upper 20s lows and high probabilities of
below freezing temps warranted the issuing of a Freeze Warning
across southwest Nebraska, generally south of HWY 2, and along -
west of of HWY 83 late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Strong upper level ridging builds in Thursday with highs returning
to near normal in the low to mid 70s. A shortwave trough forms and
disrupts the leeward side of the ridge, pushing across western
Nebraska. This could lead to some active weather with the
possibility of some isolated showers and thunderstorms across
western and north central Nebraska. Severe storms are not likely at
this time but ensemble guidance is picking up on some modest
instability with LREF indicating a sharp cutoff of SBCAPE ranging
from 100 to 200 J/kg west of HWY 83. This could help push a stronger
storm or two to become severe Thursday evening. Main concerns for
any severe storms would be gusty, erratic winds and some small hail.
It is important to note that even if any severe storm develops that
it will be short lived as instability quickly disperses after
sunset. On top of potential thunderstorm activity Thursday, there
will be some elevated fire weather concerns. While temperatures will
be near normal, humidity will drop to the low 20s over the Sandhills
and west northwest winds will be sustained at 10 - 15 mph,
gusting to 25 mph.

Friday, upper level ridging regains strength bringing highs in the
70s along with drier air. This will drop humidity down to the
low 20s across most of the region. Northwest winds will be on
the stronger side, sustained at 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.
This could bring near critical fire weather concerns,
especially to any areas that did not receive as much wetting
precipitation from system earlier in the week.

The next potential for widespread thunderstorm activity arrives over
the weekend. An upper level trough digs south across the northern
Rockies. As is stands now, this system looks to be on the stronger
side than previous one. A cold front looks to push down across
western Nebraska Saturday afternoon to evening, providing lift
for any storms to take shape. Additionally, ensemble guidance
shows LREF 50th percentile SBCAPE ranging from 100 to 200 J/kg
across western and south central Nebraska while 50th percentile
NBM guidance pushes more aggressively at 300 to 500 J/kg.
Moisture advection from the gulf remains weak at this time,
depending on when the front pushes through the region. All is to
say that this is still a quite a few days out so confidence
remains low at this time. Continued monitoring will be needed
for any changes to location, duration, and intensity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Light rain will persist across southwest Nebraska to include the
LBF vicinity for a few hours early in the period. Will cover
with a TEMPO group to account for brief impacts. Outside of
this, expect low-end MVFR conditions with VFR conditions further
north for VTN. Winds will largely be light and variable until 10
knots, with some persistent northerly flow developing by
daybreak on Wednesday for northern Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday to 8 AM CDT
/7 AM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ022-035>037-056>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRS
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion