621
FXUS63 KLBF 281144
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
644 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through Tuesday
night. Rain may be heavy at times as a plume of tropical
moisture approaches the area from the southwest.
- Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Questions still remain on how this will
evolve overall, but the remnants of Hurricane Polo from the
Pacific are looking more likely to have an impact, potentially
producing areas of excessive rainfall. Drier and cooler
weather is expected Friday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Widespread low
cloudiness will be present across the area this morning. This low
deck will be replaced later this afternoon with increasing mid level
cloudiness from the southwest. This is in advance of a lead
shortwave trough of low pressure which will arrive this evening. In
the lead up to the the arrival of this feature, southerly winds will
increase this afternoon as a surface trough of low pressure deepens
from the Black Hills south-southwest into eastern Colorado. Abundant
low level moisture will continue to flow into the forecast area
today from the south with afternoon PWATS reaching 1.20 to 1.40
inches across the area. This is well above the 100%ile for this time
of year. By late afternoon, mid level forcing will increase across
northeastern Colorado, transitioning northeast into Nebraska this
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop initially over
northeastern Colorado and lift northeast into western and
southwestern Nebraska. Aided by a decent low level jet tonight, this
activity will continue well into the overnight hours. As for the QPF
forecast tonight into Tuesday morning, the 18z GFS and EC ensemble
forecast develops a swath of a half to an inch of 24 hr QPF (ending
Wednesday 00z mainly over the Sandhills with lighter amounts over
southwestern into central Nebraska. The latest deterministic NAM12
and GFS solns tonight have the core of highest QPF further south
from southwestern into central and northeastern portions of the
forecast area. This model trend is further south than what was
advertised with last nights runs. That being said, compromising
between the ensembles and deterministic solns drives a swath of near
1 inch QPF`s through the heart of the forecast area later tonight
into Tuesday. By Tuesday night, a second round of precipitation will
lift north from eastern Colorado into southern, then central
Nebraska. This second round of precipitation is in association with
mid level low over northern New Mexico. This system will ingest
abundant tropical moisture from the remnants of hurricane Polo,
leading to a broad swath of rain from the southern Rockies, and
southern plains north into eastern Colorado, Kansas, southern and
central Nebraska. The latest deterministic EC, NAM12, and GFS solns
indicate a broad swath of 1 to 3 inches of additional precipitation
from southwestern into central and east central Nebraska beginning
Tuesday night and continuing well into Wednesday night. As for flash
flooding potential, the latest national excessive rainfall outlook
has a slight risk for exceedance of flash flood guidance south and
east of a line from Ogallala to North Platte to Bassett
Tuesday/Tuesday night and east of a line from Grant, to North
Platte, to Bartlett for Wednesday/Wednesday night. ATTM, based on
topography and current FFG, the best chances for possible flooding
are over Hayes, Frontier, southeastern Lincoln, southern and eastern
Custer and far southern portions of Garfield County. ATTM, will
forgo any flood watches for now as precipitation totals tonight into
Tuesday, will play a large role with flood potential Tuesday night
into Wednesday night. As for temperatures today, they will struggle
to get out of the lower to middle 70s given expected cloud cover.
With occasional rain expected Tuesday, highs will be mainly in the
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
The surface low associated with former Hurricane Polo will track
northward across New Mexico and into southeast Colorado by Wednesday
morning. This will be largely steered by closed upper low that
should be located across northwest New Mexico Wednesday morning.
This scenario continues to be supported by last several runs of the
operational ECMWF and the ENS. Heavy rainfall will be associated
with this feature, with widespread amounts of 2"+ across much of
eastern Colorado through the day Wednesday. The heavier rainfall has
shifted northward into southern and southwest Nebraska. The latest
28/00Z operational run of the ECMWF is projecting a band of 1-2"+ of
rainfall along I-80 and points south across southwest Nebraska.
This is supported by several of the Hi-Res tropical (hurricane
models). The 24 hour ENS QPF mean now has a 30-50% chance of
1"+ across much southwest Nebraska along and to the south of
I-80 through Wednesday. WPC is highlighting the areas from near
Sidney to Thedford to Ainsworth in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall through the day Wednesday. The latest forecast trends
will have to be monitored, but it continues to look more likely
that heavy rainfall will occur across at least portions of
southwest into southern Nebraska Wednesday into Wednesday night.
With this being moisture originating from the tropics, some
locally very heavy amounts greater than 3" cannot be ruled out.
This will be especially true if the northward shift remains
intact through the coming forecast cycles .
By Thursday, it appears that the northern stream flow will begin to
sag southward and this will shunt the heavier rainfall south
and east of the area. In addition, a cooler Canadian airmass
will sink southward into the region. Mainly dry weather is
expected Friday into the weekend with below normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026
Widespread MVFR and IFR will continue through this morning.
Improvement is expected late this morning into this afternoon.
However, MVFR may linger much of the day along and east of a ANW
to BBW line. Surface winds will become gusty from the south to
southeast at 10-20 kts this afternoon into this evening. Areas
showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. MVFR ceilings
are also expected across much of northern Nebraska tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion