301
FXUS63 KLBF 090544
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chances for very light, isolated showers tonight.
  While chances for rain are slightly better tomorrow and again
  on Saturday, precipitation amounts are expected to be fairly
  light.

- Warmer temperatures return this weekend, potentially bringing
  a return of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns.
  Concern is highest for Sunday and Monday, as warm temperatures
  combine with low relative humidity and gusty winds.

- A system tracking into the region Monday night into Tuesday
  brings cooler temperatures across the region, and potential
  for more widespread precipitation. However, confidence in the
  track of the system remains low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Cooler temperatures are expected tonight, with lows ranging from the
upper 20s to the mid 30s across the region. Expecting to see
increasing cloud cover throughout the night, especially across
southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. This additional cloud cover
is expected to help keep temperatures just above freezing, mainly
along and south of Highway 2. Late tonight, approximately around 3
AM Central, model guidance suggests a weak area of frontogenesis
aloft around 700 mb, just underneath an area of remnant instability
aloft. With the increasing cloud cover, there is an elevated layer
of better humidity aloft. If the FGEN aloft can break into the
limited instability and moisture, there is some potential for some
isolated vertical development, potentially leading to some very
light rain and snow showers. Emphasis should be put on "very light"
precipitation amounts, as very dry low layers are expected below the
FGEN aloft, meaning most of the potential precipitation is expected
to evaporate prior to reaching the ground. While some showers cannot
be completely ruled out, expecting that amounts will remain under
one hundredth of an inch of precipitation.

However, not all hope is lost for precipitation. A surface low with
a nearly stationary surface boundary is expected off the lee of the
Rockies Thursday. With this nearby low and nearby surface front,
there is better potential for seeing isolated to scattered rain
showers across portions of western and north central Nebraska.
Again, expecting this to be fairly light precipitation, however,
better moisture in the lower levels should allow for precipitation
to actually reach the ground. Chances certainly look better Thursday
evening into early Friday morning, as an upper level shortwave helps
to dislodge the surface low. Guidance suggests some limited
instability ahead of the surface boundary, which may lead to
isolated thunderstorms across portions of western Nebraska,
particularly in areas across the Sandhills. Again, not expecting
much precipitation with this system, with amounts generally on the
order of a few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch (with best
chances for a tenth in areas of thunderstorms). Otherwise, expecting
warmer temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 70s
across southwest Nebraska, and more seasonal highs in the upper 50s
to low 60s in north central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Low end precipitation chances remain Friday morning and return
briefly Friday evening. Again, expecting any rain during this period
to be on the lighter side, with amounts generally around a few
hundredths. Fairly seasonal highs are expected Friday, with highs in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. For reference, typical highs this time
of year for North Platte are around 62 degrees. For the most part,
though, expect a dreary day on Friday, with overcast skies and
chances for light showers.

By Saturday, an upper level trough is expected to track into the
western United States and deepen as an upper level low tracks into
southern California. This brings a fairly active surface pattern
this weekend, as well as better precipitation chances particularly
on Saturday afternoon. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Saturday, and with these better chances for showers and
storms, a better chance for wetting precipitation. However, there is
still some uncertainty in the track of the low, which is creating
some discrepancy in ensemble guidance. While the European ensembles
remain less optimistic for wetting precipitation, the GEFS shows a
more modest 30 to 40 percent chance for wetting precipitation this
weekend.

Also worth mentioning this weekend is the return of well above
average temperatures. Again, our average highs this time of year are
in the low 60s, generally around 62 to 63 degrees. By Saturday and
Sunday, expecting to see highs in the upper 70s to possibly lower
80s across most of western and north central Nebraska. As with some
of our previous warm ups, again the NBM deterministic remains to the
cooler side of the ensemble spreads, generally at or below the 25th
percentile. Simply put, expect that as we get closer to this weekend
and models come into better agreement that high temperatures will
continue to creep up into the lower to mid 80s across most of the
region.

With the return of warmer temperatures, will once again be keeping
an eye on fire weather concerns. Much will depend on the next few
days and potentially Saturday for precipitation totals. If we
overachieve precipitation totals this week and Saturday, there is a
chance that fire weather concerns could be lower. However, given the
current forecast amounts, expecting that these warmer temperatures
will usher in much lower humidity values, especially Sunday and
Monday, with afternoon humidity values generally less than 20
percent. Gusty westerly winds are expected on Sunday, with gusty
northerly winds on Monday along a passing cold front. With the
combination of warmer temperatures, lower humidity, and gusty winds,
expecting at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
given the current forecast. Again, much depends on precipitation
amounts over the next several days.

As mentioned above, a cold front track into the region on Monday.
This is part of a larger system, where a deep upper level trough
remains across the western United States, tracking a surface low
through western Nebraska. This system is also expected to track
Pacific moisture across portions of the region, bringing our next
best chances for wetting precipitation. However, there does still
remain some uncertainty in the exact track of the low, which will
have a large impact on precipitation chances. As the forecast
currently stands, this system looks to be one of our better chances
of a more widespread wetting precipitation event, as rain and snow
showers are expected across most of western and north central
Nebraska. However, there is some suggestion in deterministic
guidance that the best chances for precipitation remain to the east.
At this time, will continue to monitor the forecast trends and make
updates as appropriate, as there is uncertainty in the track of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. There will
be some isolated showers throughout the day, but nothing
widespread is expected. Winds will be light and variable early
this morning. Winds become easterly through the day, around 5 to
10 kts. Across the northern Sandhills winds will be slightly
stronger this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Gomez

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion