962
FXUS63 KLBF 061943
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
243 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation potential increases late tonight into early
  Tuesday (25-45%) with light rain transitioning to a wintry
  mix favoring north central Nebraska.

- A frontal boundary arriving Wednesday will bring blustery
  north winds during the day and low-end chances for
  thunderstorms in the evening for areas south of Highway 92.

- Greater rain chances (40-60%) arrive late week as deeper
  troughing settles into the Great Basin and southerly flow
  ahead of this feature draws in richer moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

This afternoon, high level clouds continue to stream in off the
central Rockies. More persistent low clouds were crossing central
South Dakota and moving over far north central Nebraska. This was
occurring in an area of strong mid-level fgen/warm air advection
(WAA) centered around h7. Afternoon observations have shown little
to no measurable precipitation and forecast soundings paint a good
picture as to why with ample dry air in the lowest 1km and another
pocket of reasonably dry air around 2-3km. This is unlikely to fill
in much and with waning lift, little to no precipitation is expected
through the remainder of the afternoon. Temperatures have varied
from lower 50s in the southwest under partly sunny skies to lower
40s in the northeast under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds have
remained steady out of the east-northeast with gusts around 20-25
mph.

For tonight...modest height falls with an approaching subtle
shortwave will provide renewed lift and returning chances for light
precipitation across portions of the area. WAA will support an
expansive cloud shield with some precipitation potential limited by
dry air lingering at the surface. Based on easterly flow, slight
increases in low-level moisture, and the expected cloud cover,
forecast lows were boosted closer to the more mild MAV solution.
This puts values closer to 30F. Veering h85 winds will support
slight increases in temperatures and introduction of a modest warm
nose. This combined with moderately steep lapse rates will promote
snow and potentially a wintry mix as the warm nose may not
sufficiently melt the hydrometeor before refreezing near the
surface. Liquid equivalent moisture appears to be fairly limited
outside of north central and eastern Nebraska where the greatest
persistent forcing should be. HREF probability-matched mean output
shows only a few hundredths across the Sandhills increasing to 0.10"
or greater to the east. Overall thinking is for less than 1" of
snow/sleet accumulation anywhere but caution is advised for folks
traveling Tuesday morning as even these light amounts could lead to
slick spots.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...southerly flow should redevelop across the
High Plains and support increasing WAA. Even so, forecast highs were
decreased slightly and closely match values from Monday. The reason
for this was lingering clouds and even light precipitation
potential across much of the area but particularly north central
Nebraska. HREF shows 30-60% potential for measurable moisture
through midday and a slow departure of low cloud cover east of
Highway 83. The afternoon temperature forecast utilized a heavy
blend of MET/NAM/HRRR guidance which produced extensive upper
40s and 50s with lower 40s for far north central Nebraska and
values nearing 60F across our far south and far west. South
winds will be steady with stronger gusts across the Sandhills
around 25-35 mph. The southerly flow will last into Tuesday
night and help promote a very mild night. Low temperatures
appear likely to remain above the freezing mark and may manage
to hold onto the lower 40s for a few locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Wednesday...Deep troughing will cross the Northern Plains by early
Wednesday, An attendant cool front will settle south into the area
and lead to gusty north winds through the day. The lack of any cold
air source should keep temperatures on the milder side with forecast
highs into the 60s to near 70F. Later in the evening, as the
front stalls near the Nebraska/Kansas border, surging southerly
flow with a rich Gulf tap should support increasing thunderstorm
potential. Placement of the frontal boundary will determine how
far north any threat is realized and recent guidance has shown
a southward trend in this. Steep lapse rates will be in place
across southwest Nebraska through the Panhandle and should
support at least modest elevated instability. Will maintain a
mention of thunder for portions of southwest and south central
Nebraska to match the localized introduction of a Storm
Prediction Center Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) but the
threat for anything strong to severe appears quite low (< 5%).

Thursday through early next week...zonal flow will develop as
troughing translates east along the US/Canadian border beyond
midweek. Deeper troughing will again arrive onto the West Coast by
Friday with southwesterly flow arriving by late in the day and
expanding across much of the central and southern Plains. This will
coincide with continued mild temperatures and increasing moisture
advection. NAEFS guidance suggests Integrated WV Transport exceeds
the 90th percentile by late Friday and increases further to around
the 99th percentile by midday Saturday. A few rounds of rain and
thunderstorms appear probable: Thursday night into Friday, Saturday
through Saturday night, and again Sunday night into Monday.
Unfortunately, all of these appear likely to be glancing blows with
focus across eastern Nebraska. This is easily apparent when viewing
the EPS which keeps potential for exceeding 0.10" in any 24-hour
period to less than 20% anywhere in the local area. Meanwhile, the
GEFS is much more bullish with westward extent. Until these
differences can be resolved, with suggest low confidence in precise
details for now. With the steady southerly low-level flow, potential
for precipitation falling as anything other than rain appears quite
low. In fact, NBM probabilities of snow, freezing rain, and/or sleet
are nil so it appears that the threat for wintry impacts is zero at
this point. Temperatures show a slight bump on Sunday with a return
to upper 70s to near 80F followed by another slight cooldown for
early next week. Either way, the average for the timeframe favors
above normal temperatures and this should persist into mid-April.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon will gradually degrade to MVFR
this evening and possibly IFR/LIFR as a disturbance rolls
through the area.

Expect slowly lowering CIGs, falling below 3kft AGL by this
evening. Precipitation potential will increase late this evening
into early Tuesday morning, mostly for the Sandhills though
impacts at either or both terminals are possible. The most
bullish NWP output suggests ~4-6 hour window of -SN/IP/FZRA
with the former two favored at either LBF or VTN. Will include a
mention at VTN and forgo mention at LBF for now.

Low stratus should persist beyond any precipitation potential
with at least MVFR CIGs, if not worse, lasting through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion