768
FXUS63 KLBF 071137
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm temperatures and breezy southerly winds Sunday.
- Marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms today through
Monday.
- Heat is expected to be a factor Tuesday as highs could climb
to above 100 degrees for areas west if Highway 183.
- Somewhat cooler temperatures expected Thursday into the
weekend.
- Chance for rain returns Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
A deepening low to the west will keep
breezy conditions through the day. Winds will be the strongest
across western Nebraska in closer proximity to the low where
sustained southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph will be possible and gusts
up to 40 mph. In terms of temperatures for today, the warmest
temperatures will be across far western Nebraska, generally just
across Sheridan and Garden counties, with a tight gradient of 850
temps around 25 degrees or greater is expected, from there westward.
Should see sfc temps in the low to mid 90s with the warmest
temperatures in the upper 90s west of the forecast area into the
Panhandle. Temperatures will gradually be cooler the farther east
into the forecast area where 850 temps will only range from 18 to 20
degrees celsius. The "cooler" temperatures will be across north
central Nebraska where highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
As far as fire weather concerns for this afternoon, did hold off on
any headlines at this time as confidence is low on meeting criteria,
with the southerly winds potentially advecting higher dewpoints
leading potentially higher RH. However, do expect to see some
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially across
western Nebraska where current forecast min RH will be around 20 to
25 percent and winds will be strongest with gusts up to 40 mph.
There is an isolated chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon
into this evening. Greater confidence that any convection will hold
off until this evening however. The CAMS haven`t been overly
enthusiastic with storm development on Sunday however, and do
think it will be mainly terrain driven and confidence is pretty
low on any widespread organized storms, but can`t rule out an
isolated thunderstorm developing. Dew points will be in the 50s
and CAPE values will be around 1500 to 2000 J/kg, although 0-6
km shear will be marginally around 25 kts, a strong to severe
storm can`t be ruled out. Would generally expect the main threat
to be gusty winds, but large hail can`t be ruled out.
For Monday, a cold front will being to advance into the area from
the west and this will serve as the focus for storm development,
will have to monitor closely as to where the front will stall in the
afternoon to have a better idea on locations for convective
initiation. Greater forecaster confidence for more organized
thunderstorm activity will be Monday late afternoon and
evening. Storm mode will likely be super cellular and expect
more scattered thunderstorm development. The environment on
Monday late afternoon and evening will be more conducive for
thunderstorm development than today. 0-6 km shear increases
significantly to around 45 to 50 kts. CAPE will increase to
around 2500 to 3200 J/kg by Monday evening, along with dew
points in the 50s to 60s. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main hazards, however a tornado potential can`t be ruled
out.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
As upper-level troughing advances eastward into the Rockies Tuesday,
strong south winds are expected as a deep area of surface low
pressure (near 995mb) deepens near the WY/NE border by late in the
afternoon. Convection Tuesday remains uncertain as low-level
moisture (dew points) mix out west of Highway 83. Still appears that
dew points in the upper 40s to near 50 will be in place near a dry
line located from western SD through the NE Panhandle and into
eastern CO. This would be the slower ECMWF solution, and widely
scattered high based convection would could evolve near the dryline
by late in the afternoon. Of note, the NAM and GFS are much more
aggressive in brining the dryline farther eastward, more into central
Nebraska. Richer low-level moisture would be located across this
area, but a strong capping inversion due to very warm mid-level
temperatures (H7 near 15C) could very well limit convective
development. All in all, as mentioned, Tuesday remains uncertain
regarding any convective placement or initiation.
The upper trough continues to move eastward toward the Northern
Plains by Wednesday. All models mix drier air eastward across the
area Wednesday, likely limiting any convection. A significant cold
front them sweeps across the area Wednesday night. Hot temperatures
are expected Wednesday but especially Tuesday. If the NAM and GFS
verify with the faster push of the dryline, highs over 100 degrees
would be likely west of Highway 183.
Thursday and Friday, a drier, and somewhat cooler airmass settles
into the area. Highs both Thursday and Friday should be in the 80s.
By the weekend, some chance for rainfall returns as several weak
disturbances appear to dive southeast into the northern Rockies and
then turn eastward across the Central Plains. Details remain
uncertain, but a more moist airmass should return northward into the
area providing an increased chance for rainfall by Saturday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
Surface winds will continue from the south to southeast through
today. Low-level moisture will advect northward into the area,
and expect MVFR ceilings across southwest and central Nebraska
These ceilings should gradually erode by mid to late morning.
VFR is expected all areas by this afternoon. Scattered late
afternoon thunderstorms should develop across the Panhandle,
possibly moving into western Nebraska this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026
Another day of gusty south to southeast winds will continue across
much of the area. Locations to the west of Highway 2 (western
Sandhills and the eastern Nebraska Panhandle will see humidity drop
into the 20-25% range this afternoon. This will bring near-critical
fire weather conditions for a time during the afternoon hours.
Humidity does recover decently tonight into the 75-85% range. A
cold front moves through later tonight with a wind switch to
the north during the overnight hours.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor
FIRE WEATHER...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion