347
FXUS63 KLBF 182044
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
344 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe thunderstorms will be the focus Saturday afternoon into
Saturday evening. Tornadoes will be possible, in addition to
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall
will become a concern Saturday evening.
- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms may continue
through Sunday and much of next week as an active northwest
flow pattern remains in place.
- Temperatures cool into the 70s Sunday and Monday before
warming back into the 80s by the middle of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Mid-level warm air advection will be on the increase later tonight
and through the day Friday. Elevated instability begins to increase
late tonight and continues into Friday. It appears that isolated to
widely scattered showers/thunder will develop across portions of
southwest into south central and central Nebraska by late tonight.
This activity may tend to increase through the day Friday as the the
warm air advection increases. A couple of the stronger cores could
produce hail, but this seems to be more likely to occur across south
central portions of the state. This is conditional depending on how
much development actually occurs. Some recent runs of the high-res
convection allowing models don`t signal much happening.
The focus then turns to Saturday as a long wave trough moves into
the Intermountain west by Saturday morning. Surface low pressure
will deepen through the day across eastern Colorado as the wave
approaches. Higher theta-e air will continue to move northward as
the low strengthens. Surface dew points will be rising into the 60s
by Saturday afternoon. The moisture will be deep, with PWATS rising
to near 1.6" along the I-80 corridor. This is near the daily all
time maximum for this time of year. Low-level flow will back to the
southeast across the area as instability increases through the day.
As large scale lift overspreads the area, supercells should develop
by late afternoon across the higher terrain to the west. MCS
development during the evening is likely across much of western and
north central Nebraska as the activity moves east off the higher
terrain. A strong southerly low-level jet will increase during the
evening with the tornado threat increasing, especially near a warm
front, which most models have located somewhere in the vicinity of I-
80 across southwest Nebraska. As mentioned the airmass will be very
moist, and heavy rainfall will be a concern in addition to the
severe weather. In fact, WPC has introduced a moderate risk area for
excessive rainfall which clips portions of southeast Custer county.
The rest of central and southwest Nebraska are in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. This seems reasonable given the ensemble
probabilities of a 50-70% chance of 1" or more of rainfall.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Sunday, deep low-level moisture will remain across the area
ahead of another mid-level disturbance moving in from the west.
Mid-level frontogenesis combined with differential positive
vorticity advection should provide sufficient lift for
thunderstorm development across the western and northern
Sandhills Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. In terms of
severe weather potential, adequate low-level moisture, moderate
instability, and 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear will support
an increasing potential for more severe weather. Currently,
hail appears to be the primary severe threat, as forecast
hodographs remain fairly straight and the overall synoptic
pattern is supportive of large hail. This threat will continue
to be monitored over the coming days. High temperatures Sunday
will be cooler across the area, ranging from the upper 60s
across northern Nebraska to the upper 70s across southwest
Nebraska. Lows Sunday night will generally remain in the 50s.
Monday, west to northwest flow aloft will persist across the region.
This will maintain a cooler pattern, with highs generally in the low
to mid 70s. Another weak disturbance may provide sufficient lift for
thunderstorms to develop west of the area Monday evening before
moving eastward. Severe weather may once again be possible, though
confidence remains low given the extended forecast range. Lows
Monday night will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
area.
Tuesday and beyond, northwest flow aloft will continue across the
region as an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes sends periodic
disturbances southeastward through late next week. Better
precipitation chances on Tuesday likely remain south of the area,
where deeper moisture is expected to reside across Kansas. By
midweek, increasing moisture advection and periodic disturbances
moving through the northwest flow pattern may provide additional
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across much of the area.
As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, both the GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble guidance continue to indicate this potential.
Confidence remains low regarding the timing and coverage of any
precipitation, but overall the pattern favors periodic thunderstorm
chances through the middle and latter portions of next week.
Temperatures are expected to remain in the lower to middle 80s
through much of the period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Friday. A mid-level cloud deck will
develop tonight, especially across central and northern
Nebraska. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 kts today
and decrease and become less than 10 kts tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Taylor
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion