885
FXUS63 KLBF 130822
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
222 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog is expected to persist through late morning across the western
Sandhills and portions of north central and northwestern Nebraska.
- Expect chilly temperatures for today and Saturday with
readings in the 40s to middle 50s Friday and 40s for Saturday.
- After some limited clearing this afternoon, skies will cloud
up tonight with mostly cloudy skies expected for most areas on
Saturday.
- Chance of scattered to widespread precipitation chances
Wednesday into Wednesday night
- Mild temperatures through the week across all of western and
north central Nebraska
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
A highly amplified H5 pattern was noted tonight across
the CONUS and southern Canada. A high amplitude ridge extended from
southwestern Wyoming, north then northeast into eastern portions of
Nunavut Canada. East of the ridge, a broad area of low pressure was
noted over eastern Quebec into Newfoundland. A trough extended to
the southwest of the Quebec low, all the way southwest to southern
portions of Alabama and Mississippi. West of the high amplitude
ridge, closed low pressure was located in southern portions of the
Gulf of Alaska. A secondary low was located approximately 300 miles
off the coast of Santa Barbara California. At the surface, high
pressure was located over northwestern portions of Ontario Canada.
This surface high extended south into the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Today through Saturday...Fog potential and timing of
fog dissipation later this morning is the primary forecast challenge
with high temperatures this afternoon being a secondary forecast
issue. Looking at the 00z HRRR visibility product tonight, fog
should develop over the central Sandhills or along the highway 97
corridor from northwest of North Platte to south central Cherry
County around 10 to 11 PM CT. So far, based on current 11.2-3.9
micron satellite imagery as of 11 PM CT, the 00z HRRR product seems
to be doing a good job of handling reality. A slight eastward bias
in the model is noted as fog seems to be developing slightly west of
what the model is indicating. Earlier this evening, a dense fog
advisory was issued for locations generally west of highway 83 from
North Platte to Valentine and north of Interstate 80 from North
Platte to Chappell. Was initially on the fence with including the
eastern panhandle counties. Based on satellite trends this evening,
feel this was a good choice to put Sheridan, Garden and Deuel
Counties in the dense fog advisory. Based on the 00Z HRRR which is
supported by the 03z HRRR, fog should begin to lift above a half a
mile between 10 and 11 AM CT this morning. Southerly winds will
increase this afternoon across the area as high pressure remains
entrenched from the eastern Dakotas into western Missouri. Ridging
will transition east today with its axis extending from western
Kansas into the western Dakotas by 00z Saturday. With troughing
beginning to approach the SW CONUS this afternoon, a surface trough
will develop from eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado. This will
also enhance southerly winds this afternoon.
Even with the southerly winds, recycled cold air will keep most
of the forecast area cool today with highs generally in the 40s
east of highway 83. Some middle 50s are possible in the far
west and will be dependent on whether or not cloud development
is delayed until after peak heating. Later tonight, southerly
winds and southwesterly flow aloft will lead to increasing
cloudiness, especially in the west, as a decent shortwave trough
tracks from Arizona into the Texas Panhandle. Lows tonight will
be chilly in the eastern forecast area where readings will
reach the lower to middle 20s. Further west where cloud cover
will be more prevalent, lows will approach the freezing mark. On
Saturday, a secondary shortwave, will track from the Four
Corners into northeastern New Mexico. Downstream of this
feature, cloudiness will increase from western into central
Nebraska during the day on Saturday. With expected cloud cover,
highs will struggle to get out of the 40s. Late in the day,
there are indications of possible precipitation across
southwestern Nebraska. The latest GFS tonight and RRFS develop
some light precipitation late Saturday afternoon which extends
up to around Ogallala Saturday evening. However, the NBM tonight
delays the onset of precipitation till Saturday evening and
keeps it confined to extreme southwestern portions of the
forecast area.. So utilizing the NBM forecast, we should remain
dry through Saturday afternoon, but will need to monitor the
latest model trends if the NBM timing trends toward the faster
deterministic solutions. &&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
A weak disturbance will move through Saturday night into Sunday. The
sfc low will track south into the Southern Plains and keep the bulk
of the precipitation south of the forecast area. There is a low end
chance that light precipitation could skirt the very southern
portion of the forecast area, far southwest Nebraska, however even
if light rain does occur, qpf values are expected to remain below a
hundredth. The upper level ridge will continue to progress eastward
into early next week with an upper level trof moving in Wednesday.
Southerly flow will bring adequate moisture to the area ahead of the
trof, will see a chance for scattered to widespread precipitation
chances on Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Temperatures will
be mostly in the 50s during the day and expect the precipitation
to fall as rain, however, should precipitation linger into the
overnight, there could be a potential for a brief period of
rain/snow mix across western Nebraska, as overnight lows dip
near 30 degrees. As for temperatures through the rest of the
week, high pressure should continue to keep temperatures warm
through mid- week with highs in the 50s across all of western
and north central Nebraska.
Attention then turns to another disturbance moving in from the
Pacific NW, towards the end of the forecast period. At this time
confidence is low in the exact track, but is expected to move
into the High Plains/Central Plains region, bringing the next
chance for precipitation. At this time high temperatures will
remain mild in the 50s so expected precipitation to be in the
form of rain for any daytime precipitation, but should precip
linger into the overnight, there will be the potential for
rain/snow mix.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
Fog will persist through the overnight into the morning. MVFR
and IFR conditions will continue through late morning, including
both forecast terminals, KVTN and KLBF. Fog is expected to
erode by late morning with VFR conditions returning the
remainder of the forecast. Winds will be light out of the
southeast around 5 kts tonight, and at times light and variable.
Winds increase late morning/early afternoon out of the
southeast around 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts through the
evening hours.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning
for NEZ004-005-022>025-035>037-056-057-059-094.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Gomez
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion