531
FXUS63 KLBF 131937
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
237 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A threat for thunderstorms persist both tonight and again
Monday across the area. The strongest storms may pose a threat
for large hail and gusty winds.
- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday behind a cold front, with
a more fall-like pattern persisting through the remainder of
the week.
- Periodic precipitation chances are expected Tuesday through
late week, with increasing potential for wetting rainfall
toward the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Persistent low cloudiness across much of the area had held
temperatures in the low 60s thus far this afternoon, with the
exception to this being across far southwest Nebraska. Here, clear
skies has allowed for temperatures to climb into the upper 70s. This
is within a broad warm advection/isentropic ascent regime, with
gusty southeast winds across the area this afternoon.
For this evening, expect scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to overspread western and northwest Nebraska as they
move off the higher terrain to the west. As these storms approach
the northwest Sandhills late this evening, they could pose a risk
for large hail and gusty winds. That said, little to no surface
based instability will be in place late evening for areas near and
east of HWY 61. This does lend some doubt in any threat for damaging
winds, especially in areas across northern Nebraska that remain very
stable under the persistent low cloudiness. MUCAPE does increase
near and after dark to ~1500-2000J/kg with the strengthening of
the LLJ, and this elevated instability combined with strong
flow aloft could lead to some threat for large hail in the
strongest storms. Additional thunderstorm development is
possible through much of the overnight hours across northern
Nebraska, before the LLJ begins to focus to the north and lift
any lingering convection into southern South Dakota and far
northeastern Nebraska near and after sunrise.
A stationary front, currently positioned across southwest Kansas,
will begin to lift northwards as a warm front tomorrow morning,
moving across the area into the afternoon. This briefly places the
area in the warm sector, and should coincide with a brief lull in
precipitation. As surface low pressure then ejects across South
Dakota tomorrow afternoon, a cold front then quickly moves across
the area from west to east. It is along this boundary where
additional thunderstorm development will be possible early
tomorrow evening. Guidance differs with respect to the placement
of the boundary tomorrow, and this will drive any threat for
strong to severe storms locally. That said, recent trends have
been more progressive and this keeps the bulk of evening
thunderstorms of to the southeast. Trends in surfaced based
storms continues to wane tomorrow, though cannot be completely
ruled out for areas south of I- 80 completely. Regardless of
frontal placement, additional post- frontal showers and
thunderstorms are expected across portions of southwest into
central Nebraska tomorrow night into early Tuesday morning, and
the strongest storms could pose a risk for hail.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Tuesday, a northern-stream longwave trough will become established
across the Dakotas, driving stronger mid-level cold air advection
across the region. Forecast 850-mb temperature anomalies fall to
around 4 to 6C below normal. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning, with gusty
northeast winds developing behind the boundary. High temperatures
Tuesday will remain quite cool, generally in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with lingering cloud cover likely limiting daytime heating. In
terms of precipitation, the cold front is expected to move south
into northern and central Kansas, keeping the strongest forcing
primarily south of the forecast area. However, some guidance
suggests better forcing may extend farther north into southern
portions of the area, supporting at least some precipitation
potential Tuesday morning. The exact northern extent of this
precipitation remains uncertain. Lows Tuesday night will fall into
the middle to upper 40s north, with middle to upper 50s farther
south.
Wednesday, westerly flow aloft will become established across the
region as another disturbance approaches within the flow. Meanwhile,
the surface front is expected to remain nearly stationary across
Kansas. Temperatures will remain relatively cool, with highs
generally in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will
increase as mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis
strengthen north of the stationary boundary. This should promote
increasing isentropic ascent and a more overrunning-type
precipitation regime, with showers and thunderstorms developing
across portions of the region. The greatest precipitation chances
currently appear across southern and eastern portions of the
forecast area. The surface-based severe weather threat should remain
low with the area north of the frontal boundary. However, elevated
instability combined with relatively low freezing levels may support
a few stronger thunderstorms. Lows Wednesday night will range from
the upper 40s north to lower 50s elsewhere.
Thursday and beyond, the pattern will remain active as multiple weak
disturbances move through the established westerly flow aloft.
Temperatures should remain more fall-like, with highs generally in
the 70s through the remainder of the period. A persistent baroclinic
zone is forecast to remain near northern Kansas and southern
Nebraska. Repeated disturbances interacting with this zone should
support periodic precipitation chances through the end of the long-
term period. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact
placement of the baroclinic zone and timing of individual
disturbances, which will influence where the greatest precipitation
amounts ultimately occur. However, confidence is increasing in at
least some wetting rainfall across western and north-central
Nebraska during the period. The greatest potential currently appears
toward late week as a stronger system approaches the region.
Overall, a cooler and wetter pattern is expected through the long-
term period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Widespread low stratus will persist today and tonight, leading
to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs. In addition, patchy fog/drizzle
will lead to periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities tonight and
tomorrow morning. A gradual improvement back to VFR then expected
tomorrow afternoon across much of western and north central
Nebraska, though may not occur until after the end of the valid
period.
Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, with gusts of 25
to 35kts for all terminals.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Labenz
AVIATION...Brown
NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion