245
FXUS63 KLBF 111730
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1230 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for all western and north
  central Nebraska zones on Monday.

- Additional near-critical to critical fire weather conditions
  appear likely for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures are expected to remain above average through the
  end of the week and into the weekend.

- A plume of Gulf moisture is expected Wednesday night into
  Thursday, which builds some uncertainty into the forecast late
  week into the weekend. Higher moisture brings a better chance
  for precipitation, while lower moisture may keep continued
  fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Early this morning, southeasterly flow was apparent across much of
the Panhandle further east into the Sandhills. To the south, winds
were out of the southwest as a warm front lifts north and east
through the area early this morning. Low-level moisture will
increase in the wake of this frontal boundary, with upstream
observations showing middle 40s dew points within breezy southwest
winds. Even with winds remaining steady overnight, the influx of
richer moisture should support good humidity recovery for much of
the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. This warm front should pass
after daybreak for our north central zones and because of this,
humidity recovery will be much more limited.

Monday/Monday Night...critical fire weather conditions are expected
with details pertaining to this found below in the Fire Weather
section. Height rises will continue today with the aforementioned
warm front lifting northeast into South Dakota by midday. Dry
conditions are expected through the day as subsidence aloft
overspreads the region. A compressing pressure gradient will promote
strengthening winds through the day with gusts likely reaching the
20-30 mph range with some locations potentially reaching 35 mph.
With abnormally warm air off the surface and the expected strong
winds, daytime temperatures will be on the warm side. Forecast highs
at both LBF and VTN are likely to surpass 90% of observed highs for
the May 11th date at each respective site. While records are not
expected, values 15-20F above normal resulting in highs around 90F
will certainly be noteworthy. In closer proximity to the frontal
boundary to the north, increasing mid-level cloudiness is likely
this afternoon but should be the only wrinkle to the weather more
akin to middle July. A low level jet will strengthen later in the
day, allowing stronger southwesterly gusts to persist well into the
evening. This occurs as a frontal boundary approaches from the
north. The stronger winds ahead of and behind this frontal boundary
will maintain a mild overnight with lows likely struggling to fall
below the 50s for most locations. Frontal passage is expected to
remain dry with only increasing mid-level clouds and ample low-level
dry air. Forecast soundings show potential for very strong gusts in
the wake of the front. Will highlight 25-35 mph gusts for now but
these magnitudes may increase with subsequent forecasts.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...Gusty north winds in the post-frontal
environment will continue through the day. A more pronounced trough
will dive southeast across the upper Mississippi Valley through the
day. With most the strong upper-level dynamics remaining well
northeast of the area, a dry forecast remains in place. Surface high
pressure will settle south east of the Continental Divide and this
should prolong gusty winds through much of the day. Moderate to
strong cold air advection (CAA) will allow day over day temperatures
to fall considerably, upwards of 10-15F for some locations. The
result of much more seasonable temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s,
though these values remain slightly above normal for mid-May. With
the gusty winds, mild temperatures, and influx of dry air, fire
weather concerns will continue with details regarding this below.
This dry air along with weakening winds should allow for lows to
fall to the lower 40s which is near to slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Temperatures remain above average on Wednesday, as highs push into
the 80s across the region. Dewpoints remain low across the region,
with afternoon humidity values expected to reach 20 percent or less
across most of the region. Strong, gusty southerly winds are
expected across the region, with the strongest gusts generally along
and west of Highway 83. Gusts across the western Sandhills could
reach up to 45 mph. Given the continued warm temperatures, low
humidity, and gusty winds, at least elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will be possible across the entire forecast
region, with the highest chance for near critical to critical fire
weather conditions for areas along and west of Highway 83.

As for Thursday and Friday, some uncertainty still remains in the
forecast. A low level jet develops across the Plains Wednesday
night, which is expected to bring a stream of Gulf moisture across
the region. This surge of moisture is expected to bring higher
dewpoints, and thus, higher afternoon humidity values. However,
there is still some uncertainty in exactly how much moisture tracks
into the region. Guidance remains in agreement that temperatures
remain well above average, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Both days also bring potential for gusty winds, as well. However,
the question remains the surge of moisture. If the higher end
humidity tracks into the region, humidity values are expected to
remain above critical fire weather thresholds, and chances for
precipitation increase. With ensembles picking up on this plume of
moisture, ensemble guidance suggests at least the possibility of
measureable rainfall both evenings, though amounts are generally
expected to be on the lower end, less than one tenth of an inch. On
the other hand, if the humidity surge remains more limited, then we
may still reach low enough humidity values to reach at least
elevated to near critical fire weather concerns. Given how much the
moisture surge will impact the forecast, some of the more fine scale
features may not be known more exactly until the low level jet sets
up. However, will continue to keep a close eye on this period of the
forecast to see if confidence increases one way or the other.

Looking ahead to the weekend, a trough is expected to track across
the western United States, tracking a couple of low pressure systems
across the northern Plains. This will bring at least a chance for
rain this weekend, but again, ensemble guidance suggests a fairly
light amount of precipitation at this time. Temperatures are
expected to remain above average, with highs in the 80s this
weekend. As with the plume of moisture Thursday and Friday, there is
some uncertainty in how much the moisture sticks around. GFS
guidance suggests dewpoints remain on the higher side, while the
ECMWF suggests lower dewpoints across the region. This will likely
have a large impact on expected precipitation chances and potential
amounts. Again, will continue to keep a close eye on the forecast
trends, as this moisture will help determine precipitation chances
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds 15KT
with gusts to near 30KT this afternoon and early evening. A
cold front tracks into the region after 03Z and overnight,
switching winds from southwesterly to northerly. Additionally, a
low level jet develops overnight, bringing LLWS concerns to
the KLBF terminal 06Z until 10Z. Expect an abrupt shift in
winds at the surface and aloft as the cold front passes, with
gusty northerly winds at the surface overnight and through
Tuesday morning. Expect scattered high clouds this afternoon,
with broken high clouds northern Nebraska this evening. Could
also see sprinkles across northern Nebraska after midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Monday...Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for all zones in the LBF
forecast area. Gusty southwest winds behind a passing warm front
will increase through the morning hours. Though dew points may
increase slightly immediately behind this boundary, diurnal mixing
will offset this during the day as high temperatures quickly climb
into the upper 80s for most and lower 90s for some. These values
will be approximately 15-25F above normal for early to middle May.
Dry air aloft will mix to the surface and promote expansive critical
humidity levels across the area as an elongated surface low takes
shape across northeastern Wyoming through western North Dakota. The
feature will gradually settle east into the Panhandle, allowing the
pressure gradient to constrict ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. Southwesterly winds will gust around 25 to 35 mph as deep
mixing will allow stronger winds around h7 to mix to the surface.
NBM probabilities for greater than 25 mph gusts quickly reach 70%+
over the western Sandhills by 9-10am CDT with widespread 90%+
probabilities for the majority of west central Nebraska by 1-2pm
CDT. Similarly, dry air crossing the Continental Divide will settle
in to areas west of Highway 83. It`s these areas that confidence is
highest in seeing critical humidity levels. HREF probabilistic
guidance highlights 80% potential or greater for < 15% RH west of a
Valentine to Ogallala line. Further east, humidity levels may be
more marginal, perhaps only reaching the 15-20% range, but with the
anticipated magnitude of wind gusts the decision was made to
maintain an area-wide Red Flag Warning. Winds will remain steady if
not increase into the early evening as the frontal boundary
approaches from the north. Timing of the front is medium at best,
with a north to south arrival around Midnight CDT to 6-7am CDT
Tuesday. The strong winds ahead of and behind will likely limit
humidity recovery to around 50%. Winds behind the front may
strengthen further with some potential for seeing strong to
significant gusts. At this time, confidence in seeing significant
gusts is low so will continue to message 25-35 mph gusts after winds
flip to the north.

Tuesday...northerly winds will continue through the day as surface
high pressure settles in from the northwest. Ample dry air will
accompany this feature and lead to additional near-critical
concerns. Later forecast may require Red Flag Warnings for at least
portions of the area should the current forecast hold. Temperatures
will be much cooler with afternoon highs only reaching the 70s to
low 80s which is within 10F of normal for mid-May. With the cooler
temperatures though, lower surface moisture is expected as dew
points fall to around 30-35F. This will again lead to fairly
widespread minimum humidities of 15-25%. Winds should subside
heading into the evening though and with the drier air, cooler
overnight lows are expected. This will result in marginally better
humidity recovery as well with peak values in the 65-80% range.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NEZ209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Roberg
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion